HEADLINE = No longer emerging, BRICS have arrived

STRAP = The five-nation group is no longer an emerging group but a powerful agglomeration that is
setting down the rules of global economic engagement for the coming decades.

In 1983 Belgian economist Paul Bairoch presented a detailed study of the world economy that caused a
furor in Western academic and political circles. In Economics and World History: Myths and Paradoxes
(http://www.amazon.com/Economics-World-History-Myths-Paradoxes/dp/0226034631) he said that in
1750 Indias share of global GDP was 24.5 per cent, Chinas 33 per cent, and the combined share of
Britain and the US was 2 per cent.
Shaken by these facts, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, a largely Western
club, constituted a Development Institute Studies under professor Angus Maddisson of the University of
Groningen to investigate Bairochs claims.
The data (http://theunbrokenwindow.com/Development/MADDISON%20The%20World%20Economy--
A%20Millennial.pdf) Maddison compiled affirmed what nearly all Indian school children knew but was
mysteriously unknown to the West that India and China were the biggest economies in the world for
almost all of the past 2000 years. His figures showed India was the leading economic power of the world
from the first year of the millennium till 1700 thats 18 of the last 20 centuries. India had 32 per cent
share of worlds GDP in the first 1000 years and 28-24 per cent in the second millennium till 1700.
Since Bairoch and Maddison presented those paradigm shifting studies, things have progressed at warp
speed. According to the International Monetary Fund, last year was the first in which emerging markets
accounted for more than half of world GDP on the basis of purchasing power. Four large countries of the
BRICS group Brazil, Russia, India and China are today the only $1 trillion economies outside the OECD
and are also four of the 10 largest national economies in the world.
Strength and speed of growth
Much as Western propaganda outfits such as the New York Times
(http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/29/world/asia/plan-of-action-proves-elusive-for-emerging-
economies-in-brics.html?_r=0) would like to keep repeating the BRICS are fragile, it is abundantly clear
the five-nation group has been the engine that has rescued a flat-lining global economy. The
international consultancy Grant Thornton says BRICS are no longer emerging but in a different class just
below the developed ones. Jim ONeill, who coined the term BRIC, says its idiotic and insulting to call
them emerging economies. He argues these economies are increasingly the driver of everything
positive in the world economy and that they should be called growth markets.
A PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) study titled World in 2050 says the collective strength of the BRICs
economies is of ever increasing importance to the strength of the global economy. Whilst mature
economies across the globe grapple with towering budget deficits, anaemic growth and rising
unemployment, the BRICs are expanding rapidly, lifting people out of poverty and driving the global
economy. The manner in which leaders in the troubled eurozone recently pleaded with these markets
for funds to help alleviate the sovereign debt crisis marks yet another definitive step in the transition of
economic power from west to east.
How the world will turn
PwC says China is projected to overtake the US as the largest economy by 2017 in purchasing power
parity (PPP) terms and by 2027 in market exchange rate terms. India should become the third global
economic giant by 2050, a long way ahead of Brazil, which is expected to move up to fourth place ahead
of Japan. Russia could overtake Germany to become the largest European economy before 2020 in PPP
terms and by around 2035 at market exchange rates.
In areas like ICT, biotechnology and nanotechnology, China and India will play an increasing role in these
developments in future decades. This will further fuel their catch-up process with the more sluggish
advanced economies.
Decline of the dollar
Twenty years ago, travellers wanting to exchange rubles or rupees would have been welcomed only at
the international airports of the countries that issued these currencies. Today, Indian rupees can be
exchanged at small banks in Australia and New Zealand. The acceptance of any currency is simply a sign
of the confidence in the issuing countrys economy and trade.
In a paper titled The Renminbi Bloc is Here, (http://wuw.iie.com/publications/wp/wp12-19.pdf) Arvind
Subramanian and Martin Kessler of the US-based Peterson Institute for International Economics provide
a dramatic picture of how the RMB is growing in strength while the US dollar weakens.
Firstly, they say the RMB is already the dominant reference currency in India and South Africa. Secondly,
since mid-2010 the RMB has made dramatic strides as a reference currency compared with the dollar
and euro.
The RMB has now become the dominant reference currency in East Asia, eclipsing the dollar and the
euro.The currencies of South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Singapore, and
Thailand now more closely track the RMB than the dollar. The dollars dominance as reference currency
in East Asia is now limited to Hong Kong (by virtue of the peg), Vietnam and Mongolia.
And they provide this chilling assessment: The dollar and the euro still play a greater role beyond their
natural spheres of influence than does the RMB but that is changing in favor of the RMB.
Why chilling? The India-Iran rupee trade, Russia-Iran ruble trade and the worldwide acceptance of the
RMB will slowly erode the prestige of the US dollar, which will have dire consequences for American
prosperity. As a nation that has greatly benefited from and exploited the dollars reserve currency
status, the end of the Dollar Raj will mean a severe decline in American incomes and the countrys ability
to project power.
West still in the game
The rise or to use Indian National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menons word re-rise of the BRICS
doesnt mean the West will fade away soon. While its share of the global economic pie will decline
substantially, Western prosperity will decline only in relative terms. PwC says the US is projected to
retain its top spot on average income levels in 2050, while large emerging countries such as China,
Brazil, Indonesia and India still sit at the bottom of the income table.
However, the GDP per capita differentials between the two groups of countries are projected to close
significantly. For instance, Chinas GDP per capita as a proportion of US levels is expected to increase
from 18 per cent in 2011 to 44 per cent in 2050.
For higher valued products and services, the US and EU markets will still remain attractive locations
given their more affluent consumers, although emerging market multinationals can expect to achieve an
increasingly strong position in these markets over time as they move up the value chain.
Future of the BRICS
Currently, the BRICS countries together account for more than a quarter of the worlds land area, more
than 40 per cent of the world population and around 35 per cent of global foreign exchange reserves.
The BRICS economies are collectively worth around $12 trillion, and will surpass the size of the US
economy which is approximately $15 trillion, by 2015. Former Goldman Sachs economist Jim ONeill
estimates that by 2020 the combined GDP of the four original BRIC members will be around $25 trillion.
What makes the BRICS story so compelling and attractive to countries from South America to Africa
is the very nature of this rainbow collation. Each country is completely different from the others not
only in terms of race and colour but also in economic systems and religion. The groups objectives are
global rather than regional or local, and this is primarily owing to its DNA belonging to the Russia-India-
China triangular organised by Moscow in the 1990s.
With the Western democracies becoming dysfunctional, (http://rt.com/shows/sophieco/brics-russia-
world-system-824/) the economic success of the BRICS may finally establish a multipolar world where
smaller countries have the freedom and opportunity to have a shot at prosperity. It could finally make
the world a fairer place.