The Science of Climate Change : A Synopsis

Summary
Climate basics
The worlds climate is changing, and the changes will have an enormous
impact on our planets people, ecosystems, cities, and energy use.
Average global air temperatures are already 1.5 degrees higher than they
were at the start of the 20th century, and have risen about 1 degree over
just the last 30 years.
According to the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), average global temperatures are likely to rise by another 2
to 8.6 degrees F by 2100. If we take aggressive action to reduce
emissions, the temperature change could be modest. If we continue on our
present course, however, the amount of change will be substantial. Most
experts agree that the changes are anthropogenic caused by humans
largely from emissions of heat-trapping gases released to the
atmosphere when fossil fuels are burned. Carbon dioxide is the most
significant of these gases; CO
2
levels are at their highest in 650,000 years.
What is the difference between weather and climate?


Satellite hurricane image
Source: NASA/Goddard Space Flight
Center Scientific Visualization Studio

Climate describes the average or typical conditions of temperature, relative
humidity, cloudiness, precipitation, wind speed and direction, and other
meteorological factors that prevail globally or regionally for extended
periods. Weather describes the hourly or daily conditions that people
experience each day. This is why its often said that Climate is what you
expect; weather is what you get.
People expect the weather to change and experience those changes daily.
Its harder to see how climate is changing because climate is measured
over many years rather than as single events. Like weather, climate may
change differently in different places. Unlike weather, climate represents
trends made up of all the weather variables in a region. Changes in the
trends can be subtle, but over time they indicate that what is normal is
shifting.

Chart of two billion
years of climate change
Source: www.scotese.com

Is there a connection between human activities and climate
change?
There have been long-term and short-term climate cycles for hundreds of
millions of years, as far back as these changes can be measured. Many of
those climate changes were dramatic and rapid, some the result of impacts
from comets or asteroids.
In its most recent five-year assessment, the IPCC confirmed again that
Earths climate is changing and that human activities are the primary
factors causing this change. Many of the factors that caused earlier
changes continue to influence todays climate, but human activities have
now become the predominant force causing our climate to change very
rapidly. There is strong consensus throughout the scientific community on
this point.
What is global warming?
Burning large amounts of fossil fuels coal, oil, natural gas is a root
cause of global warming. Burning releases heat-trapping gases to the
atmosphere. The gases, especially CO2, act like a blanket that retains
heat and restricts the rate at which Earths surface can radiate heat to
space. Another factor is deforestation; when forests are cut down or
burned, they can no longer store carbon, and the carbon is released to the
atmosphere. The result is global warming. Today, current levels of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere are higher than at any time during the last
800,000 years.
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the
Earths surface than any preceding decade since 1850. Quotation from
IPCC 5th Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers
Earth has warmed at an unprecedented rate over the last hundred years
and particularly over the last two decades. All of the top 10 warmest years
on record have occurred since 1998. For nearly 300 consecutive months,
each month has been warmer than its historical average. Exactly how
much warmer the atmosphere gets will depend on how quickly and
effectively people can substantially reduce the activities that are causing
rising temperatures.


Maps of the projected late 21st century annual mean surface temperature change,
annual
mean precipitation change, Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent and
change in ocean surface pH from the IPCC

What do scientists predict in terms of climate change?
In 2014, the IPCC published a series of scenarios ranging from business
as usual/no actions taken to aggressive actions taken to reduce climate
change. Models based on these scenarios from the IPCC 2014 report
predict that by 2100, average global surface temperatures will likely rise by
an additional 2 to 8.6 degrees F (1.1 to 4.8 degrees C) above the 1986-
2005 average. This temperature increase will be accompanied by other
environmental changes such as an increase in global sea level by up to 1
2 feet.




Where will the impact be greatest?
During the remainder of this century, different locations will experience
different levels of increases in temperature, with the greatest impact
toward the North Pole and the least increase toward the South Pole and in
the tropics. As an example of what may be in store, New Englands
temperature is projected to increase by 6 to 10 degrees F by 2100, in
which case Bostons average temperature would resemble that of
Charlotte, North Carolina (a 6 degree increase) or Atlanta, Georgia (a 10
degree increase).




On September 13, 2013, Arctic sea ice reached its likely minimum extent for the year.
It was the sixth lowest* in the satellite record, and reinforces the long-
term downward trend in Arctic ice extent.
Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center

How does water heat and cool our climate?
Water is one of the key reasons that life has flourished on Earth, but not on
the other planets in our solar system. Our planet is neither too near the
sun, nor too far from it, but instead lies within a narrow habitable zone
whose central feature is water in the form of liquid, vapor or ice. Water in
its liquid form is necessary for all life and ecological function, and its
transition to a gas (as water vapor) and a solid (as ice) also has important
ecological and climatologic functions.
Water molecules heat the atmosphere directly by absorbing sunlight. Even
though the amount of water in the atmosphere at any one time is relatively
small (equivalent to only 0.001 percent of Earths total water volume), air
contains enough water molecules to absorb about 70 percent of incoming
sunlight, thereby warming the atmosphere.


Chart from the White House Initiative on
Global Climate Change

What is the greenhouse effect?
Water vapor and trace gases keep Earth about 54 degrees F warmer than
it would be without them. This function is often called the greenhouse
effect, and the gases that cause it are known as greenhouse gases.
The greenhouse effect is a naturally occurring phenomenon that blankets
the earth and warms it, maintaining the temperature that living things need
to survive. Surprisingly, the atmospheres most abundant gases
nitrogen, oxygen, and argon do not influence climate. Instead, its the
molecules of trace gases, especially water vapor (H
2
O), carbon dioxide
(CO
2
), methane (CH
4
), nitrous oxide (N
2
O) and ozone (O
3
) that strongly
absorb infra-red radiation contained in sunlight, or emitted by land and
water as they cool.
When we burn fossil fuels, we release additional CO
2
that builds up and
traps heat that would otherwise escape. This human-caused blanket effect
leads to warming of the planet, disrupting the atmospheric balance that
keeps the climate stable.

What are fossil fuels?
Fossil fuels are the carbon-rich remains of terrestrial plants, marine
phytoplankton and zooplankton that have been buried and compressed
under sediments for millions of years. Under certain conditions, the
remnants of these organisms turn into coal, oil or natural gas (methane).
Burning fossil fuels that have been mined from deep in the earth or seabed
returns ancient fossil carbon, which has been out of circulation, to the
atmosphere. In addition, large amounts of methane are generated by
anaerobic digestion of wastes at sewage treatment plants, dumps and
stockyards as well as by cattle.
Back to top



This graph of atmospheric CO2 concentration
is known as the Keeling Curve,
after Charles Keeling, a climate scientist from
Scripps Institute of Oceanography, who was the
first to make precise annual measurements.

How fast have emissions grown in recent years?
Emissions of greenhouse gases have grown at an accelerating rate in
recent decades. In 2011 the annual rate of emissions was about 54
percent higher than the rate in 1990. Consequently, the amount of CO
2
in
the atmosphere has increased by 10% in the past two decades.
There is a strong correlation between the rise in global temperature and
the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. As CO
2

increased from 1850 to 2010, the average temperature on the earths
surface increased by about 0.8 degree C (1.4 degrees F). Atmospheric
CO
2
continues to rise each year.
Once released, greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere until they are
either absorbed by plants or animals, dissolved into the ocean, or
degraded by sunlight or by chemical reactions with other molecules.
Molecules of CO
2
remain in the atmosphere for approximately 100 years,
which is why it is so hard to reverse global warming once it gets started.
Although China is now the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, per capita
emissions in the U.S. are substantially higher than in China. It is also
important to note that the majority of cumulative emission to date have
come from developed countries.
What factors cool rather than heat the atmosphere?
Climate forcings are factors in the climate system that either increase or
decrease the effects to the system. Positive forcings such as excess
greenhouse gases warm the earth while negative forcings, such as the
effects of most aerosols and volcanic eruptions, actually cool the earth.
Atmospheric aerosols include volcanic dust, pale-colored soot from the
combustion of fossil fuels, particles from burning forests and mineral dust.
Dark carbon-rich particles such as soot from diesel engines absorb
sunlight and warm the atmosphere. Conversely, exhaust from high-sulphur
coal or oil produce light aerosols that reflect sunlight back to space,
producing a cooling effect. Aerosols that form naturally during volcanic
eruptions cool the atmosphere. Large volcanic eruptions can eject enough
ash into the atmosphere to lower temperature for a year or more until the
sulfate particles settle out of the atmosphere.