Key Trade Bulletin 6th July 2009

New Position
1. Bund
Buy Sep 09 Bunds today @ 121.87. Stop @ 121.11.

The Technical Trader’s View:

Euro Bund Continuous
127
126.53 High
126
WEEKLY cont. Bar
124.60 High from 2005 125 chart
124
123
122 The market has
121.56 Low 121 smashed the falling
118.48 High 120
diagonal and the
119
118 horizontal resistance
117 from 121.56.
116
115
114 Two good pieces of
113 bull evidence.
112
111
110
109

10000
x100
Oct Nov Dec 2008 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

SEVEN DAYS AHEAD 124 REGENTS PARK ROADLONDON NW18XL

TEL +44 (0) 7849 922573 E-MAIL MSTURDY@SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM JLEWIS@SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM WWW.SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM

This information memorandum has been prepared solely for informational purposes for customers of Seven Days Ahead and is based on publicly available information from
sources believed to be reliable. It is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. No representation is made as to the
completeness or accuracy of any statements or forecasts contained herein and no responsibility or liability is accepted for losses arising from transactions undertaken or
investments purchased, sold or held on its recommendation. Consequently, any persons acting on information contained herein do so entirely at their own risk. Although the
opinions contained herein were considered valid at the time of release, financial markets are subject to rapid and unexpected movements. Seven Days Ahead, its associated
companies, their directors, employees, other customers or connected persons may from time to time undertake transactions or deal in investments mentioned in this
information memorandum or have a material interest, relationship or arrangement in relation to them.
 DAILY Sep 09 Bar
Euro Bund Sep 09 chart
124.60 High from 2005 125.0

124.5

124.0 And, in addition to the

123.5
continuation chart
123.0
122.5
levels, looking at the
122.0 Sep 09 chart, note well
121.5 the breakup through
121.56 cont High 121.29 121.0
121.18 and the falling
chart resistance 121.18 Low 120.5

120.0
diagonal.
119.5
119.57 Low 119.0 These provide the
118.5
critical support with
118.48 Prior Hig 118.0
Stops beneath.
117.5
117.47 Low
117.0

50000

x10
2 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6 13 20
March April May June July

DAILY Sep 09 Bar

chart
Euro Bund Sep 09
122.5
We are buyers here.
Rising diagonal supp
122.0
With stops beneath the
121.29 High 121.5 rising diagonal support
and the 121.29 Prior
121.0 High support.
Falling diagonal suppo

120.5

120.0
Stop
121.11 119.5

119.0

50000

x10
8 15 22 29 6 13 20
July

SEVEN DAYS AHEAD 124 REGENTS PARK ROADLONDON NW18XL

TEL +44 (0) 7849 922573 E-MAIL MSTURDY@SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM JLEWIS@SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM WWW.SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM

This information memorandum has been prepared solely for informational purposes for customers of Seven Days Ahead and is based on publicly available information from
sources believed to be reliable. It is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. No representation is made as to the
completeness or accuracy of any statements or forecasts contained herein and no responsibility or liability is accepted for losses arising from transactions undertaken or
investments purchased, sold or held on its recommendation. Consequently, any persons acting on information contained herein do so entirely at their own risk. Although the
opinions contained herein were considered valid at the time of release, financial markets are subject to rapid and unexpected movements. Seven Days Ahead, its associated
companies, their directors, employees, other customers or connected persons may from time to time undertake transactions or deal in investments mentioned in this
information memorandum or have a material interest, relationship or arrangement in relation to them.
The Macro Trader’s view:
It now looks clear to all that the hoped for bottom in the Euro zone recession remains some way off.
The ECB continues to believe pumping massive amounts of liquidity into the Banking system is the
way forward. While it keeps afloat a Banking system burdened by around E282B of toxic assets, it
doesn’t help the wider economy.

The Banks balance sheets need to be cleaned up and the ECB needs to get money out into the
economy, beyond the Banking system.

But they are hampered by the very nature of the Euro zones decision making processes; monetary
policy is centralised, but nothing else is; political authority is in the hands of national governments, so
too is fiscal power, so who’s bonds should the ECB buy, could they buy bonds across the entire Euro
zone weighted by the relevance of the issuing economy, or would governments such as Germany or
France object to having their debt markets interfered with. We judge if they bought in the secondary
market it doesn’t matter.

Whatever the answer the current policy isn’t working and if waiting for the US, UK and China to start
growing is their policy, it will mean another one or two years of economic stagnation. And with interest
rates seemingly on hold, the Bund should rally further.

Mark Sturdy
John Lewis
Seven Days Ahead

SEVEN DAYS AHEAD 124 REGENTS PARK ROADLONDON NW18XL

TEL +44 (0) 7849 922573 E-MAIL MSTURDY@SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM JLEWIS@SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM WWW.SEVENDAYSAHEAD.COM

This information memorandum has been prepared solely for informational purposes for customers of Seven Days Ahead and is based on publicly available information from
sources believed to be reliable. It is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. No representation is made as to the
completeness or accuracy of any statements or forecasts contained herein and no responsibility or liability is accepted for losses arising from transactions undertaken or
investments purchased, sold or held on its recommendation. Consequently, any persons acting on information contained herein do so entirely at their own risk. Although the
opinions contained herein were considered valid at the time of release, financial markets are subject to rapid and unexpected movements. Seven Days Ahead, its associated
companies, their directors, employees, other customers or connected persons may from time to time undertake transactions or deal in investments mentioned in this
information memorandum or have a material interest, relationship or arrangement in relation to them.