Page 1 of 22

Statistics uioup Analysis

Nustafa Taiiq (26uS646u6)
}ay Seth (260565236)


Ncuill 0niveisity

Business Statistics
NuCR 271

ulenn Zabowski

Apiil 9
th
2u14
Page 2 of 22

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Page 3 of 22
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Stuuents enteiing univeisity aie faceu with a plethoia of changes, one such
change is theii uiet. Nost stuuent's especially inteinational stuuents, aie living
away fiom home foi the fiist time anu have to get accustomeu to uiffeient
enviionments, cuisines etc. Bowevei, local stuuents also face changes in theii
lifestyles anu these aie also met with ueity alteiations, all of which affect the
weight of fieshman stuuents. The geneially accepteu fact is that most stuuents
gain weight in theii fieshman yeai as seen by the populai notions of the
"Fieshman 1S" in the 0S anu "Fieshei Five" in Austialia anu New Zealanu.
Theie have been an abunuance of aiticles, founu on both the Inteinet anu
magazines, which both suppoit anu conflict the "Fieshman 1S" claim. Theiefoie
the aim of this investigation is to stuuy the aveiage weight gainloss by fiist yeai
Ncuill stuuents anu to ieach the conclusion as to whethei this claim applies to
stuuents at Ncuill.
345&.26&*+#% /&,27*8

Initially we constiucteu a suivey on www.suiveymonkey.com wheie we askeu
fiist-yeai stuuents at Ncuill questions iegaiuing theii weight anu othei vaiiables
we believeu hau an effect on theii weight. Then this suivey was ianuomly
uistiibuteu to fieshman stuuents via e-mail. The suivey has been incluueu in
Appenuix A.

In this suivey, stuuents weie askeu about theii genuei, uietaiy habits, legal
status as stuuents in Canaua, exeicise ioutine anu the change of weight they
expeiienceu fiom the beginning of the fiist till the miuule of the seconu
semestei. Although 16u e-mails hau been sent ianuomly to stuuents in vaiious
uepaitments within Ncuill, only 1u2 stuuents hau manageu to complete the
entiie suivey. This is an example of a voluntaiy sample because only those
stuuents who wisheu to iesponu uiu. Also the stuuents weie guaianteeu that
theii infoimation woulu iemain anonymous so they coulu be honest about theii
Page 4 of 22
weight change as we iealizeu that some people woulu not piefei to uisclose such
peisonal infoimation.

Although we suiveyeu 1u2 stuuents, two of the stuuent's uata hau to be iemoveu
as they weie consiueieu outlieis (one stuuent suiveyeu hau an extieme weight
loss anu the othei hau an extieme weight gain which leu to oui iesults changing
uiastically.) As oui sample size is laige, theiefoie thioughout the expeiiment we
have assumeu that oui uata is noimally uistiibuteu. Fiom the iesulting uata, we
obseiveu that theie weie 4S male stuuents anu SS female stuuents. We also
calculateu that theie was a total of 6u% of the stuuents who weie Canauians anu
the iemaining 4u% weie inteinational stuuents. The iange of the uiffeience in
weight change is Sulbs with the maximum weight loss is -12 anu the maximum
weight gaineu is 18 pounus. When calculateu, oui sample pioveu to be positively
skeweu with a skewness measuie of u.29.
1

9#+2'*#%& $&:2*/ ;#.2#$%&,8

R%(23)#I %H 4#'&0"#4
We believe that Canauian stuuents in geneial woulu face a less extieme change
in theii weight as compaieu to inteinational stuuents since they aie useu to the
enviionment anu accustomeu to Canauian tiauitions. Being inteinational
stuuents we peisonally expeiienceu that it was uifficult to cope with the
culinaiy, cultuial anu uistance fiom family has

Z'180$ %H ()52$0##04 /0$ C00E
Accoiuing to the aiticles we ieau, theie weie stiong suggestions that smoking
leaus to appetite appeasement anu hence iesults in weight loss.
2


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We believeu that consuming a gieatei numbei of vegetables is a sign of a healthy
uiet anu theiefoie its consumption shoulu leau to weight stability. Also we

1
Appenuix B
2
http://www.livescience.com/23556-5-health-benefits-of-smoking.html
Page 5 of 22
believeu excess amounts of vegetables woulu help fieshmen lose weight aftei
having ieau the aiticle below.
S


Z'180$ %H #)104 0.0$()40&
Exeicising iegulaily boosts metabolism which in tuin buins fat. It also enhances
youi eneigy anu activity level anu theiefoie shoulu help fieshman who want to
lose weight. The aiticle below acteu as oui guiueline.
4


<1=2%%>, ?.&,:6#* @A
To calculate whethei the Fieshman 1S claim applieu to Ncuill, we fiist ian a
Lowei-tail test wheie oui null hypothesis suggesteu that stuuents uiu in fact gain
fifteen pounus uuiing theii fiist yeai at univeisity. Bowevei the uata, calculateu
with the help of Niciosoft Excel, showeu a mean of 1.77 anu a stanuaiu ueviation
of S.99 which only helpeu in pioving that we hau to ieject the null hypothesis
anu accept that Ncuill stuuents, in fact, uiu not gain fifteen pounus in theii
fieshman yeai.
S

We then uiu anothei null hypothesis test to measuie whethei fieshman stuuents
at Ncuill actually gaineu oi lost weight. With oui null hypothesis pioposing theie
was no net weight gainloss anu oui alteinative hypothesis suggesting that theie
was a weight gain. Again, we hau to ieject the null hypothesis as oui uata
favouieu a weight gain. All of oui uata was calculateu to a S% significance level
so that we coulu be pietty assuieu about oui iesults. We even calculateu oui
uata using a significance level of 1% anu again oui uata showeu positive iesults
to enable us to be veiy confiuent in oui outcomes.
Fiom the tests uone on oui uata, we weie able to concluue that although the
"Fieshman 1S" claim uiu not apply to Ncuill stuuents, stuuents at Ncuill in
geneial uiu gain weight uuiing theii fiist yeai at univeisity. The 9S% confiuence

3
http://www.atkins.com/Science/Articles---Library/Carbohydrates/5-Reasons-Vegetables-May-Help-
You-Lose-Weight-and-.aspx
4
http://www.fitnessmagazine.com/workout/lose-weight/burn-fat/10-reasons-why-exercise-makes-you-
thin-or-why-time-magazine-got-it-wrong/
S
Appenuix C
Page 6 of 22
inteival foi the mean weight gaineu uuiing the fiist yeai lieu between u.S9lbs to
2.9Slbs
WLlCP1 CPAnCLS lC8 nA1lCnAL Anu ln1L8nA1lCnAL
S1uuLn1S8
Although oui iesults showeu that the Fieshman 1S uiu not apply to fieshman
stuuents at Ncuill, we wanteu to measuies which vaiiables hau the most effect
on the weight change. Consequently, the fiist vaiiable we wanteu to test was the
stuuent's legal status in Canaua. We estimateu that the net weight gaineu by an
inteinational stuuent woulu exceeu that of the local stuuent because
inteinational stuuents woulu have to face gieatei changes in the enviionment
compaieu to that of local stuuents who weie ielatively moie useu to the
Canauian enviionment.

Theiefoie, we ian an infeience foi a two population mean assuming that
inteinational anu local stuuents weie inuepenuent samples. . The means anu
stanuaiu ueviation foi population 1 (Inteinational stuuents) have been
computeu using excel fiom oui uata anu aie S.uS anu S.S4 iespectively.
Population 2(National Stuuents) mean is -u.4 anu S.48. All answeis weie
calculateu coiiect to 2 uecimal places.
6


0ui iesults showeu that on aveiage an inteinational stuuent gaineu moie weight
than a Canauian stuuent. This maue sense assuming that Canauian stuuents have
been useu to this lifestyle anu aie accustomeu to the local cuisine. 0ui z-value of
4.9 was again significant at even the 1% significance level suggesting that oui
uata was again something to be suie off.
7



6
Appenuix B
7
Appenuix E
Page 7 of 22

9&%#+2'*,:25 $&+B&&* C6'D2*7 #*/ E&27:+ 1:#*7&
ln our experlmenL we were also concerned abouL smoklng and how LhaL had an
lmpacL on an lndlvldual's welghL. We conducLed Lhls research prlmarlly because we
read arLlcles lnformlng us LhaL smoklng clgareLLes leads Lo appeLlLe suppressanL and
Lherefore lL acLs as a mean Lo lose welghL. Pence, we evaluaLed wheLher Lhese
Lheorles applled Lo freshman McClll sLudenLs. We caLegorlzed our freshmen lnLo
Lhree separaLe caLegorles: lndlvlduals who smoke more Lhan 13 clgareLLes were
classlfled as heavy smokers, lndlvlduals who smoked less Lhan 13 clgareLLes a week
were classlfled as llghL smokers and lndlvlduals who dld noL smoke were classlfled as
non-smokers.
Cur calculaLlons showed LhaL Lhe coefflclenL of deLermlnaLlons ls 0.3326 meanlng
LhaL 33.26 of Lhe varlaLlon ln Lhe welghL loss ls explalned by Lhe number of
clgareLLes smoked per week by McClll sLudenLs. 1here was also a sLrong llnear
assoclaLlon beLween smoklng and welghL loss as Lhe coefflclenL of correlaLlon ls 0.73.
1herefore Lhe Lheory LhaL welghL loss and smoklng are correlaLed ln facL does apply
Lo McClll freshmen sLudenLs.
8



8
Appenuix B
-1
u
1
2
S
4
S
6
National stuuent Inteinational stuuent
F0)59# (92"50 2((%$&)"5 #% R%(23)#I
Page 8 of 22
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/2&+ #*/ &4&.12,&I
The foui factois we believeu woulu have the gieatest impact on a fieshman's life
aie the inuiviuual's nationality, smoking habits, uietaiy ioutine anu exeicise
piefeience. We then useu a multiple vaiiable regression to analyse the nature of the
relationship between the different variables and how that influenced an individuals
weight. In our regression analysis, our dependent variable x, was the weight change
seen amongst freshman McGill students, and our response variable were the four
separate variables. Our regression analysis calculations can be found in Appendix D.

To test oui iegiession analysis we testeu the weight change that a stuuent who
possesseu the uiffeient vaiiables woulu gainloss anu whethei the weight
change was in accoiuance to oui calculations. 0ui estimateu iegiession line is
! ! !"!!""#$$!% !!!!!!"#$%&'%&!!
!
!!!!!!"#$%&%'(!!
!
!!!!!!"#$%!&!!
!
!!!!!!!"!#$%$&!!
!


In oiuei to test oui calculations we ianuomly suiveyeu the fiist inuiviuual we
confionteu in Bionfman. Although he wanteu his iuentity to iemain anonymous,
he infoimeu us that he was an inteinational stuuent who uiu not smoke, hau one
seiving of vegetables a week anu exeiciseu 1 time a week. Be tolu us that he hau
gaineu 8 pounus in the yeai so fai. Accoiuing to oui pieuiction, his weight
inciease shoulu have been 9 pounus.
9
Theiefoie the iesiuual value of 1 pounu
was a satisfying enough iesult in oui calculations to measuie the net weight
gainloss in fiist-yeai stuuents.

When we analyseu oui uata fuithei we founu that 77.7S% of the weight change
that takes place uue to the uiffeient vaiiables in oui uata is explaineu by the
coefficient of multiple ueteimination (R
2
). 0ui aujusteu R value is 76.42%, which
is faiily close to the coefficient of multiple ueteimination, suggesting that oui
vaiiables help in explain the vaiiations amongst weight change.
1u


9
Appenuix K
1u
Appenuix F
Page 9 of 22


0ui iesiuual scattei plots foim a hoiizontal banu aiounu zeio theiefoie then
theie is no eviuence that any of the assumptions have been violateu in oui
mouel.
11

Theie is some piesence of multi co-lineaiity in the mouel pioven by small
uiffeience between R
2
anu aujusteu R
2
. This is fuithei seen in oui coiielation
matiix table. Fuitheimoie, this is seen in oui coiielation matiix table (appenuix
F), theie exists a high coiielation amongst the inuepenuent vaiiables especially
between cigaiettes anu vegetables, cigaiettes anu exeicise anu exeicise anu
vegetables as | R | is gieatei than u.S in these cases.
12
We also testeu the
significance of oui iegiession mouel. Our null hypothesis was that the regression
line was not significant as all betas would be equal to zero and alternate hypothesis
was the mutually exclusive complement. We Conclude H
1
as F* > F(0.05,4; 95) i.e.
81.1926>2.58 therefore regression line is significant.
13

):2J,K0#.& +&,+ ('. 2*/&5&*/&*1&8
!
!
! !
!
! !
!
! !
!

!
!
! !"# !"" !!! !"# !"#$%
Cbserved lrequency(C)
National Inteinational
Beavy 12 4 16
Light SS 2S S6
Non-Smokei 1S 1S 28
Total 6u 4u 100
Expecteu Fiequency (E)
National Inteinational
Beavy 9.6 6.4 16
Light 33.6 22.4 S6
Non-Smokei 16.8 11.2 28

11
Appenuix u
12
Appenuix B
1S
Appenuix I
Page 10 of 22
6u 4u 100

!"#$ %$&$'#$'( )*+,,-.
/0


AcLlon LlmlL: ! !!!"!! ! !!!!

!"#$%&'(#) !
!
!" !" ! !"! !! !! !!!!"# ! !!!!
!!! !"!#$%&'"() !"# !!"!#$!"#$%

)'*1%0,2'* #*/ L262+#+2'*,8

0ui ieseaich came to the conclusion that the "Fieshman 1S" claim uoes not
apply to Ncuill fiist-yeai stuuents, although theie was a net mean gain in weight
by the aveiage fieshman.

We coulu have impioveu the confiuence in oui expeiiment by fiistly having a
gieatei sample size. This woulu be moie iepiesentative of the Ncuill population
of fiist yeai stuuents anu woulu also help in showing the tienus moie cleaily. To
gain a bettei unueistanuing of the holistic measuie of the fieshman fifteen
analyses, Bouy Nass Inuex, alcohol consumption, waist anu hip measuiements
anu othei vaiiables neeu to be consiueieu.

The limitation of this stuuy is that the sample can be biaseu anu the iesponses
cannot be accuiately measuieu. Foi example, some people may iepoit lowei
weight inciease anu may not be having measuieu theii cuiient weight befoie
filling out the suivey.



14
Appenuix }
Page 11 of 22
E'.D, )2+&/

Wanjek, Christopher. 5 Health Benefits of Smoking. Live Science. September 28,
2012. Web. April 6, 2014.
<http://www.livescience.com/23556-5-health-benefits-of-smoking.html>

5 Reasons Vegetables May Help You Lose Weight and Live Longer. Atkins. n.d.
Web. April 5, 2014.
<http://www.atkins.com/Science/Articles---Library/Carbohydrates/5-Reasons-
Vegetables-May-Help-You-Lose-Weight-and-.aspx>

Pevzner, Holly. 10 Reasons Why Exercise Makes You Thin. Fitness Magazine. n.d.
Web. April 4, 2014.
<http:www.fitnessmagazine.comwoikoutlose-weightbuin-fat1u-ieasons-
why-exeicise-makes-you-thin-oi-why-time-magazine-got-it-wiong>








Page 12 of 22
M55&*/24&,

M55&*/24 M

0nline Suivey









































Page 13 of 22


M55&*/24 N

Infeiential Statistics summaiy tables


Page 14 of 22
M55&*/24 )


Bypothesis Testing

Lowei Tail Test, as accoiuing to the fieshman 1S stuuies weight incieases.

!
!
! !
!
! !
!
!
! !
!
! !
0sing Stanuaiuizeu appioach(assuming !=0.05)

Test Statistic: !
!
!
!!!!!!
!!!"
!""
! !!!"
Action Limit: -z(1 0.05)= -z(0.95)= -1.65

Accept H
0
as z* ! !" AL i.e. 2.94 ! !!!!"

We useu the Lowei Tail Test hypotheses testing methou to measuie whethei the
"Fieshman 1S" applieu to Ncuill stuuents. 0ui calculations, using a 9S%
significance level, aie as follow:
!
!
! !
!
! !"
!
!
! !
!
! !"
0sing Stanuaiuizeu appioach (assuming !=0.05)

Test Statistic: !
!
!
!!!!!!"
!!!"
!""
! !!"!!"#
Action Limit: -z(1 0.05)= -z(0.95)= -1.65

Reject H
0
if z* < AL i.e. -21.978<-1.65

Confidence Interval
!!!! !!!!"!
!!!"
!""



When we calculated the 95% confidence interval for the mean, we computed that the
mean average weight gain lied between 0.59lbs 2.95lbs


Page 15 of 22
M55&*/24 O
Page 16 of 22
M55&*/24 3

Bypothesis Testing 2 Neans
!
!
! !
!
! !
!
! !
!
!
! !
!
! !
!
! !

Since,
!
!
!"# !
!
! !" anu the calculateu sample stanuaiu ueviations aie known using
stanuaiu eiioi =
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!


TS:
!!!"! !!!! !!
!!!"
!
!"
!
!!!"
!
!
!
! !!!
AL: -z(1 0.05)= -1.96

Accept H
0
as z* > AL i.e. 4.9>-1.96.


Confiuence Inteival 2 Neans

1
-
2
=!!!" ! !!!! ! !!! !
!!!"
!
!
!!!"
!
!"
!
!!!"
!
!"


This shows that the confidence interval lies between 3.27 and 8.13.





Page 17 of 22
M55&*/24 ?

Regiession Analysis Summaiy
Page 18 of 22
Appendlx C

Resiuual Plots








-1u
u
1u
2u
u u.2 u.4 u.6 u.8 1 1.2
7
0
4
)
&
'
2
3
4

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!"#$%&"'$#( 704)&'23 [3%#
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u
1u
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u S 1u 1S 2u 2S Su
7
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)
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3
4

)$* ,-. /--0
1$* ,-. /--0 704)&'23 [3%#
-1u
u
1u
2u
u 2 4 6 8 1u 12 14 16
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-5-.)$4- ,-. /--0 704)&'23 [3%#
Page 19 of 22
M55&*/24 P

Coiielation Natiix














































Page 20 of 22
M55&*/24 -

Testing significance of a regression line
We calculated the significance of the regression line using 4 distinct independent
variables, namely: legal status in Canada, smoking habits, vegetables consumption
and the weekly exercise routine. Here
!
!
! !"#$% !"#"$! !" !"#"$"
!
!
! Amount of cigarettes smoked per week
!
!
! Number of times vegetables consumed
!
!
! !"#$%& !" !"#$% !"#!$#%&!' !"# !""#


!
!
! !
!
! !
!
! !
!
! !
!
! !
!
!
! !"# !"" !!" ! !

!"#$ !"#"$%"$&! !
!
!
!"#$!!""
!"!!"#$%
! !"!!"#$

!"#$%& !"#"$! !!! 1 !!!"! !! !")=2.48

Conclude H
1
as F* > F(1 - !; p - 1; n - p) i.e. 81.1926>2.58 therefore regression
line is significant.
Page 21 of 22
M55&*/24 Q


! ! !
!
!



0.6

0.010714286

0.192837143

0.9

0.016071429
0.289283714
1esL SLaLlsLlc 2.008928371

Page 22 of 22
M55&*/24 R

0ui calculations can be shown in the

Locality
Regression line and prediction
Estimated Regression Line ! ! !
!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!


! ! !"!!""#$$!% !!!!!!"#$%&'%&!!
!
!!!!!!"#$%&%'(!!
!
!!!!!!"#$%!&!!
!
!!!!!!!"!#$%$&!!
!

where
!"#$%&#!' ! !!"#$%&$'%! !
!
! !"!!""#$$!%
!"#$%&#!' !"#$% coefficients
Nationality: !
!
! !!!!"#$%&'%&
Number of cigarettes consumed per week !
!
! !!!!"#$%&%'(
Number of vegetables consumed per week !
!
! !!!!"#$%!&
Number of times exercised per week !
!
! !!!!!"!#$%$&
!
!
! !
!
! !
!
!"# !
!
are the independent variables.

Testing our regression line
Assuming, characteristics for someone who is trying to loose weight.
!
!
! !
!
!
! !"
!
!
! !
!
!
! !
! ! !"!!""#$$!% ! !!!!"#$%&'%& !! ! !!!!"#$%&%'( !!"
! !!!!"#$%!& !! ! !!!!!"!#$%$& !!
! ! !!"!!"

Assuming characteristics for someone who has gained weight
!
!
! !
!
!
! !
!
!
! !
!
!
! !
! ! !"!!""#$$!% ! !!!!"#$%&'%& !! ! !!!!"#$%&%'( !!
! !!!!"#$%!& !! ! !!!!!"!#$%$& !!
! ! !!!"#