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CHINA
I. Background:
1. 1949FormationofthePeople'sRepublicofChina:OnOct.1,1949,MaoZedongdeclaredtheformationofthe
People'sRepublicofChina.
2. 195359KoreanWarChinafoughttheUSledUNForces.
3. 1958Estimated30MillionChineseDiedinaFamine
4. 1959ChinacrushedrebellioninTibet,DalaiLamaandfollowersfleetoIndia.
5. 1962SinoIndianBorderwar.
6. 1964Chinatesteditsfirstnuclearbomb.
7. 1971ChinatookTaiwan'sseatattheUNastheofficiallyrecognisedGovernmentofChina.
8. 1972USPresidentRichardNixon'spathbreakingvisittoChina
9. 1976DeathofMaoZedong
10. 1978DengXiaopingbecametheSupremeChineseleader
11. June,1989ChineseArmycrushedTiananmenSquareprotests,killingmanypeople
12. 1993JiangZeminbecamethePresidentofChina
13. 1997DeathofDengXiaoping,HongKongreturnedtoChinabytheBritish
14. 2001ChinajoinstheWorldTradeOrganisation(WTO)
15. 2003HuJintaobecamethesixthPresidentofChina
16. 2003WenJiabaobecamethePrimeMinisterofChina
17. ChinasRoleinAsiaPacificSecurity:
Key Role in AsiaPacific Security: According to the US Defence Department lasting security in Asia
PacificisnotpossiblewithoutaconstructiverolebyChina.Asanuclearweaponstate,aleadingregional
militarypowerandglobalplayerwithpermanentseatintheUNSecurityCouncil,Chinaplaysakeyrolein
AsiaPacificsecurity.
PostCold War Regional Security: In the post ColdWar era, regional security is related to stability in
tiesamongChina,theUSandJapan.Worseningrelationsbetweenthesecountrieswillhavetheirfallout
ontheentireregion,accordingtoanalysts.
Unresolved Territorial Disputes: There are a number of unresolved territorial disputes in the region
involving maritime boundaries and possible mineral resources. The disputes in the region include the
SpratlysIslands,theParacels,theSenkakuortheTakeshimaislandsandRussoJapanesedisputeover
theNorthernTerritories.
Resurgence of China: China?s emergence as an economic power accompanied by a huge military
modernisation programme has made its neighbours apprehensive. In 1996 China launched missiles near
Taiwan and practically stopped all shipping in the Taiwan Straits which are international waters. The
regionisfindingitdifficulttoadjusttoaresurgentChina.
Counter Balance by the US: Japan and Taiwan are trying to strengthen their alliance with the US
becauseofChina'sbelligerentactions.TheUSisconsolidatingitspositionintheregionandhasargued
forabeefedupmissiledefenceintheregiontoaddressconcernsaboutChina.
18. ModernisationofChinasMilitary:
IncreaseinDefenceSpending:InMarch2001,Chinaannouncedanincreaseinitsdefenceallocationby
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IncreaseinDefenceSpending:InMarch2001,Chinaannouncedanincreaseinitsdefenceallocationby
17.7percent.Theenhancementmarksadoubledigitincreaseindefencespendingforthe13thyearina
row. Analysts feel that the China?s defence spending is actually much more than what is officially
quoted.
ConventionalWeapons:Analysts point out that in the last five years, China has received conventional
weapons, hardware and military technology worth $4 billion, making it the ninth major receipt in world
today.
Seventh Major Arms Exporter: In the last five years, China has exported arms worth $ 2.5 billion
makingittheseventhmajorarmsexporterintheworld.
Enhanced Air Superiority: China?s air superiority will be enhanced by its recent import of SU27 SK
Flankeraircraft,SU37multiroleaircraft,KA31AEWHelicoptersandothers.Chinahasalsobeenableto
obtain the design and technology of their weapons. This has increased its air defence and offence
capabilitiesconsiderably.
Enhanced Naval Capability: China has recently acquired Kiloclass submarines, along with deals for
Sovermenny class destroyers. This shows that China?s intentions of not confining itself to the South
ChinaSeaalonebuttopenetratedeepintotheIndianOceanaswell,accordingtoanalysts.
Range of Missiles: China has a range of ballistic missiles some of which carry beyond continental"
reach. Analysts point out that most of these lethal missiles are manufactured by China?s own defence
industries.
PLAbeingModernised:DefenceexpertspointoutthatthePeople?sLiberationArmy(PLA)ofChinais
being modernised to carry out any kind of future war under modern hightech conditions. The largest
standingarmyintheworldhasreducedfrom4.75millionin1980sto2.5millioninthelate1990s.
Military Modernisation to Become a Global Power: China has been carrying out its military
modernisation for the last two decades, especially after the Gulf War, according to Defence analysts. It
hascarriedoutcomprehensivemilitaryreformsandmodernisationprogrammeswithanaimofachievinga
globalpowerstatus.
Shift from LandBased Forces to Naval and Air Forces: Defence experts point out that China has
shifted emphasis away from landbased forces along the Russian borders in favour of PLA?s navy
(PLAN)andairforce(PLAAF),stationedmainlyinSouthChina.
Increase in Navy and Air Force Budget: The navy's share in China's recent defence budget increased
by35percentandthatoftheairforceby29percent.Thearmy?ssharewasreducedby29percent.
Deployment of Modern Defence Equipment: PLAN (navy) and PLAAF (air force) will now deploy air
refuelablefighteraircraft,thelatestshortandlongrangeairtoairweapons,airborneearlywarningaircraft
(AWACS),antisubmarine(ASW)andantisurfacewarfare(ASuW)platforms.
IntelligenceFacilityontheCocoIsland:DefenceanalystspointoutthatChinahasalreadyestablished
an extensive signals intelligence facility on the Great Coco Island in Myanmar which is just a few miles
from Andamans. This will enable it to monitor Indian missile launches from Balasore and rocket and
satellitelaunchesfromSriharikota.
Naval Bases in Myanmar: The Chinese navy (PLAN) is associated with Myanmar naval bases at
Munaung,Hainggyi,KatanIsland,andZadalkyiIsland,accordingtodefenceanalysts.Chinaalsointends
toconstructaroadandwaterwaylinkfromitssouthernYunanprovincetotheMyanmarportofYangon,
whichwillprovideitdirectaccesstotheBayofBengal.
19. ChinasMilitaryReforms:
WagingSuccessfulbattlesintheInformationWars:Mr.JiangZemin,thechairmanofChina'sCentral
MilitaryCommission(CMC)indicatedthatChinaisembarkingonascientificprocessofmilitaryreformto
wagesuccessfulbattlesintheemergingeraofinformationwar.
Pruning the Strength of the PLA: There are indications that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) may
pruneitsstrengthofservicemenby200,000personnelby2005.
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Reinforcing Overall Combat Capabilities: The other objective was to reinforce the army's mobility,
competitivenessanditsoverallcombatcapabilities.
20. China'sForeignPolicy:
A. SignificantChangeinChina'sForeignPolicyin2006:Analystspointoutthattheyear2006witnessed
asignificantchangeinChina'sforeignpolicy,signallingthattheAsiangiantwasreadytoacceptitsnew
statusasaworldpower.
B. China'sConceptofaHarmoniousWorld,aTheoreticalBasisforItsChangedRoleinInternational
Affairs: China is now acknowledging its status as a major power in the international system, as is
evidenced by the development of a theory of international relations the concept of "harmonious
relations". The concept of harmonious relations developed by the Chinese President Hu Jintao
encompasses the broad notions of multilateralism, prosperity for all through common development,
toleranceanddiversity,accordingtoanalysts.
C. ReasonsBehindChinaPlayingaMoreActiveRoleinInternationalAffairs:
Active International Role to Sustain Its DoubleDigit Economic Growth: Analysts point out
thatChinahastoplayamoreactiveroleininternationalaffairstosustainitsboomingdoubledigit
economic growth. China imports a large proportion of oil and other natural resources required to
sustain its economic growth. Thus, China has begun to actively engage energy and natural
resources rich countries of Latin America, Africa, and Central Asia. These countries are also
valuableasemergingmarketsforChineseproducts.
Stable Security Environment is Required for Sustaining the Economic Growth: Ensuring
regionalpeaceandstabilityisessentialforChinaaseconomicgrowthcanbesustainedonlyina
stable security environment in the immediate neighbourhood, according analysts. This can be
achievedonlywhenChinaplaysanactiveroleininternationalaffairs.
D. China'sDiplomaticSuccess:
Resolution of the North Korean Problem: China won global appreciation for bringing North Korea
backtothenegotiatingtablewhichresultedinNorthKoreaagreeingtostopitsnuclearprogramme
in exchange for oil and security guarantees. China's mediatory role in the resolution of the North
Korean problem a potential global flash point has given it a considerable clout in international
affairs,accordingtoanalysts.
Increase in China's Contribution to UN Peacekeeping Troops and Peace Building Fund:
ChinaincreaseditscontributiontoUNpeacekeepingtroopsandalsopledged$3milliontotheUN
PeacekeepingFund.
Chinaalsoprovidedaidto86developingcountriesin2006.
E. CriticismofChina'sNewDiplomacy:
China's Military Modernisation Programme Criticised: Countries like the US and Japan have
criticised China's military modernisation programme, pointing to the opaque nature of the
programme.
China'sWillingnesstoDealwithCorruptandOppressiveRegimesCriticised:Humanrightsgroups
have criticised China's willingness to deal with corrupt and oppressive regimes in countries like
AngolaandSudan.ChinahasuseditspowerattheUNindefenceofAfricancountrieslikeSudan
widelycondemnedbytheWest.
F. China'sGrowingInternationalStatusIrrefutable:AnalystspointoutthatChinahasproveditsgrowing
international status by taking leadership of a number of regional and international forums, initiating
bilateral security dialogues and military exchanges, and providing aid and technical assistance to
countriesinAfricawherethetraditionalpowersliketheUSarecautioustotread.
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21. China'sEconomy:
EconomicDevelopmentofChina:ThePeople?sRepublicofChina(PRC)isonapathofgrowthmarked
by consistent economic growth, radical restructuring of its State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), Industrial
and Infrastructural development, growing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), a positive trade balance, and
asamemberoftheWorldTradeOrganisation(WTO).
China has $1 Trillion Foreign Exchange Reserves: In January 2007, China's foreign exchange
reserves,thelargestintheworld,topped$1trillionforthefirsttime.ThisputpressureontheGovernment
toletthecurrency(yuan)becomestrongertohelpreininlendingandavoidtheriskofinflation.
China has Doubled its National Output in Five Years: Analysts point out that China has almost
doubled its national output in five years with unprecedented industrialisation, urbanisation and inward
investment. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of China is currently $ 2.7 trillion and the annual per
capitaincomeofChina's1.3billionpeopleexceeds$2,000,waybehindthatoftheUS($42,000).
ChinaFourthLargestEconomyintheWorld:ChinasurpassesBritainasthefourthlargesteconomyin
the world. The top three economies in the world are the US, Japan and Germany. However, China is
catching up with its double digit economic growth compared to a single digit (around 4%) growth of the
otherleadingeconomies.
FearsofEconomicOverheating:InvestmentsinconstructionandfactoriesinChinahaveincreasedby
per cent raising concerns of overheating of the economy. The falling prices of steel and cars indicated
overcapacityinthesesectors.
Majority of China's Population is Poor: Analysts point out that majority of the population in China is
poor by western standards. The National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that 27 years of doubledigit
economicgrowthhavetakentheaverageincomeoftheChineseto$2,000makingitbetterthanMorocco,
butfarbehindtheUS,EuropeandJapan.
22. China'sIncreasingDefenceBudget:
AnnualIncreaseof18PerCentin2008:China'sofficialdefencebudgetfortheyear2008wouldbe$57.2
billion, with an increase of 17.6 per cent over 2007. Officially, China's defence expenditure was just 1.4
percentofitsGDPand10timeslessthantheUS($600billion).
ChinaAccusedofUnderstatingItsDefenceBudget:TheUSandJapanaccuseChinaofunderstatingits
defence budget. According to Pentagon reports the real defence budget of China is over $100 billion,
whentheoverallmilitaryspendingisaccountedfor.
China's Army the BestFunded in Asia: According to a Pentagon report the Chinese army is the best
fundedinAsiaandthirdintheworldaftertheUSandRussia.
China's Defence Spending to Modernise Its Forces: The Pentagon report points to China's efforts to
increase its ballistic missile strength and modernise its conventional forces with large defence
acquisitionsfromabroadrangingfromadvancedfighterjetstocomputerisedinformationsystems.
ChinaDeniesUnderstatingItsDefenceSpending:China'sDefenceMinisterCaoGuangchuandeniedthat
his country has understated its defence spending by insisting that raising the living standards of the
country'spoormadeitimpossibletomassivelyincreasedefenceexpenditure.
II. CurrentSituationinChina:
1. ChinasWhitePaperonNationalDefencein2008(January2009):
China committed to peaceful development and military modernisation, according to a white paper issued
byChinaonnationaldefenceinJanuary2009.
Chinas ambition basically to accomplish mechanisation [of the military] and make major progress in
informationtechnologyby2020andrealisingmodernisationbymid21stcentury.
Chinas strategic guideline of active defence aimed at winning local wars in conditions of information
technology.
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China aimed at developing a complete set of scientific modes of organisation, institutions and ways of
operationby2020.
Specified Chinas longstanding policy of no first use of nuclear weapons. Reaffirmed China's will to
implementaselfdefencenuclearstrategy.
The Second Artillery Force is Chinas core force of strategic deterrence. In peacetime, the nuclear
missilesoftheSecondArtilleryForcearenotaimedatanycountry.
The Chinese Military would take a more open approach to communicating and exchanging with other
militariesforworldpeaceandstability.
Chinas security situation was improving steadily. The situation across the Taiwan Straits had taken a
significantlypositiveturn.
Chinawasstillconfrontedwithlongterm,complicated,anddiversesecuritythreatsandchallengesthe
threats of separatist forces of Taiwan independence, East Turkistan independence and Tibet
independence.
The US continues to sell arms to Taiwan in violation of the principles established in the three SinoUS
Joint Communiqus, causing serious harm to the SinoUS relations as well as to peace and stability
acrosstheTaiwanStraits.
Chinas defence expenditure has remained at a reasonable level. Though defence expenditure increased
from 1988 to 2008, the total amount and perserviceperson share remained lower than those of some
majorpowers.
China would never seek hegemony or engage in military expansion now or in future, no matter how
developeditbecomes.
2. ChineseEconomy:
China became the Third Largest Economy in the World Overtaking Germany: In January 2009, China
overtookGermanytobecometheworld?sthirdlargesteconomyearlierthanexpected.Theestimatesfor
China's GDP were revised higher with the economy believed to have grown by 13 per cent in 2007, up
fromanearlierestimateof11.9percent.
Chinas Economy Slowed down in 2008: China?s economic growth slowed down in 2008 with the GDP
growthrecordedatasevenyearlowof9percent.Thewideningglobalfinancialcrisisaffectedtheworld's
fastestgrowingeconomy.
ChinaDeclaredEmergencyOverSevereDrought:InFebruary2009,Chinadeclaredastateofemergency
after the worst drought in halfacentury wiped out crops in northern China with millions of people left
withoutdrinkingwater.However,China?swheatsupplyandgrainsecuritywouldnotbeinfluencedbythe
drought that had parched more than 40 per cent of the country?s wheat land, according to the China?s
AgriculturalMinister.
The rising unemployment would be the biggest challenge to Chinas economy in 2009, according to a
surveyconductedbyChina'sEconomicMonitoringandAnalysisCentre.
III. Conclusion:
1. IndiaConcernedaboutChina'sRapidMilitaryModernisationandMilitaryInfrastructureDevelopment:
DefenceanalystspointoutthatIndiaisconcernedatChina'srapidmodernisationofits2.3millionstrong
People'sLiberationArmy(PLA).
India also remains concerned about China's military infrastructure development in Tibet and its growing
military cooperation with countries in India's neighbourhood like Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh,
MaldivesandSeychelles.
2. SinoPakistan Military Cooperation a Complex Challenge for India: Defence analysts opine that the trans
border military index between India and China could grow in favour of China in view of China acquiring new
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border military index between India and China could grow in favour of China in view of China acquiring new
capabilities like antisatellite weapons. The continuing SinoPakistan military cooperation also presents a
complexchallengeforIndia.
3. ChinaAdoptingaTwoProngedStrategytoManageitsGrowingInternationalStatus:
Reassuring Neighbours of Its Peaceful Intentions: Analysts point out that China has adopted a two
pronged strategy to manage its growing international status. The strategy lays emphasis on reassuring
the neighbours of China's peaceful intentions. China has tried to ally the fears of its neighbours who
continuetosuspectthemodernisationdriveofthePLA.
Modernising the PLA: The other part of the strategy is to modernise the PLA into a military force
capable of significant power projection. China has been upgrading its nuclear arsenal to include greater
number of mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles like the DF31A and the JL2 submarinelaunched
missiles.
4. JointMilitaryExercisesUsedasaDiplomaticTooltoAllayCriticismoftheOpaqueNatureofItsMilitary
Modernisation: Analysts observe that China has been using joint military exercises with its neighbours as a
diplomatic tool to allay fears and criticism of the opaque nature of its military modernisation. China held joint
exercises with India in 2007 and 2008. It also conducted joint exercises with Russia and other Central Asian
countries under the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. China also conducted joint training with Thailand's
armedforces.
5. China Emerging as Military Rival to the US China's Military BuildUp Put Regional Military Balances at
Risk:TheUSisconcernedatChina'srapidmilitarymodernisation.TheUSfeelsthatChinahasthepotentialto
competemilitarilywithit.ItalsopointedoutthatChina'smilitarybuildupinthelastdecadeputsregionalmilitary
balancesatrisk.
6. China'sProactiveDiplomacyintheNewEra:AnalystspointoutthatChinahasbeenpushingforaproactive
roleintheneweraunderthediplomaticbannerofpeace,developmentandcooperation.Chinahasbroughtouta
white paper in this regard which emphasises the need for a longlasting and stable international environment of
peaceforChina'sdevelopment,whichinturn,willpromoteworldpeaceandprogress.
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