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Introduction
Notation:
If a random experiment can result in N(S) equally likely outcomes, and if N(E) of
these are favourable to the occurrence of an event ‘E’, then:
N E
Equation: PE
N S
P(E) = Probability of an event ‘E’ (0 P(E) 1)
N(E) = Number of outcomes in the event ‘E’
N(S) = Number of outcomes in sample space
Range of Probability
Since probability is denoted by a fraction:
Range: 0 P(E) 1
If, P(E) = 0 Then, the event cannot occur
If, P(E) = 1 Then, the event is certain to occur
Complementary Events:
The complementary event to the event ‘E’ is denoted as E (i.e. The not event of ‘E’)
Equation: P E 1 P E
Proof:
If ‘E’ has N(E) outcomes, then E has N(S) N(E) outcomes:
i.e. N E N S N E …(1)
Now divide (1) by N(S):
N E N S N E
N S N S N S
P E 1 P E
E.g. In a raffle with one prize, 40 tickets are sold. Lisa buys 4 tickets. What is
the probability that:
(a) Lisa wins
(b) Lisa doesn’t win
4 1
A (a) P L
40 10
1 9
(b) PL 1
10 10
E.g. Sam buys 4 tickets in a raffle in which 100 tickets are sold. Two different
tickets are drawn for the 1st and 2nd prize. What is the probability that Sam
wins both prizes?
E.g. A bag holds 7 green, 3 red, 8 yellow and 6 white pegs. One is chosen at
random. What is the probability that the peg is red or yellow?
A Let, R Red
Let, Y Yellow
So, P(R or Y) = P(R) + P(Y)
1 1 11
=
8 3 24
If two events are not mutually exclusive, then the probability of ‘A’ or ‘B’ occurring
is given by:
Equation: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A.B)
P(A or B) = Probability of events ‘A’ or ‘B’
P(A) = Probability of event ‘A’
P(B) = Probability of event ‘B’
P(A.B) = Probability of events ‘A’ & ‘B’
A Let, C Chemistry
Let, P Physics
So, P(C or P) = P(C) + P(P) P(C & P)
22 18 13 9
=
30 30 30 10
Tree Diagrams:
Tree diagrams are used to trace the possible outcomes of an experiment.
E.g. At a maternity hospital, 3 babies are born on a particular day. Find the
probability that there are 2 boys and 1 girl.
B BBB
B
G BBG
B B BGB
G
G BGG
B GBB
B
G GBG
G B GGB
G
G GGG
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
So, P(B.B.G) =
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
3
=
8
Binomial Probabilities
For Information on Permutations or Combinations for Use in Probability See
Permutations and Combinations
Binomial probability is used when the same trial is repeated several times and there
are two possible outcomes, either one of which must occur.
Equation: P k successes n C k . p k .q n k
p = Probability of success
q = Probability of failure
E.g. A die is tossed 3 times. Find the binomial expansion for the result of sixes turning
up.
p p3
p
q p2.q
p p p2.q
q
q p.q2
p q.p2
p
q p.q2
q p p.q2
q
q q3
From the tree diagram one can see that the results are related to the binomial
expansion of (p + q)3
p q 3 p 3 3C1 . p 2 .q 3C 2 . p.q 2 q 3
p q 3 P 3 sixes P2 sixes P1 sixes P0 sixes
Examples of Use:
Games of Chance: A die is tossed.
Probability of a six is p = 1/6
Probability of not a six is q = 5/6
Target Shooting: A marksman scores a bull’s eye on average 4 times out of 5.
Probability of success is p = 4/5
Probability of failure is q = 1/5
Manufactured Articles: A manufacturer determines that in the long run, 10% of the
articles are selected.
Probability of any one being defectives is p = 1/10
Probability of not defective is q = 9/10
Clinical Trials: In the long term, it is found that 80% of patients suffering from
complaint X are used by drug Y. If 10 patients are chose
Probability of being cured is p = 4/5
Probability of not being cured is q = 1/5
Glossary
Random Experiment The process of performing an experiment repeatedly in an
identical manner, without necessarily identical results
E.g. Throwing a die. Result: 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6; If
this is repeated, one of the above results will
appear again
Simple Event A single outcome of a random experiment
E.g. Throwing a die. Result: 3
Composite Event Consists of more than one simple event
E.g. Throwing a die. Result: 1 & 3
Sample Space The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment
Equally likely outcomes If there is no reason for one outcome to occur more often
than any other, then the possible outcomes are equally
likely
E.g. Tossing a coin. Result: head or tail
Non-equally likely outcomes E.g. Tossing two coins simultaneously. Result: 2 head or
1 head & 1 tail or 2 tails (not equally likely because
1H & 1T is twice as likely then 2H or 2T)