!"#$%&'($ *+,$- .

#/-0'
Learnlng Cb[ecuves
! Models
! A maLhemaucal or physlcal represenLauon of a hypoLhesls, Lheory,
or law
! Slmpllcauon of reallLy for declslon maklng and deslgn

! Models for dynamlcal sysLems
" ueLermlnlsuc, !"#$%&'($) Complex

! SecurlLy prlce and reLurn raLe models

! 8evlew of probablllLy and sLausucs


1
A llnanclal Came
! Would you play a nanclal game wlLh
! a 90 probablllLy of galnlng $200 and
! a 10 probablllLy of loslng $100 ?

! AlLernauvely, would you Lake $20 wlLh cerLalnLy ?

! ln *+#,&,-.-"/ &12 '"&('($', you sLudled 23$-'-#1 4&5-16 7-"% 81$3+"&-1"/
! 8uL lL was acLually declslon maklng wlLh +-'5 !

! LxpecLed value: $200 .90 - $100 .1 = $170

! WhaL does LhaL calculauon really mean? ls lL rauonal Lo play Lhls nanclal
game?

! l would guess LhaL mosL of you would Lake Lhe $20 , why ?
2
Cuesuons
! ?our common sense llkely Lells you LhaL Loo much uncerLalnLy and rlsk
remaln ln Lhe game
! Pow many umes can l play Lhe game?
! WhaLs Lhe durauon of Lhe game?
! Are Lhere any oLher alLernauve games?
! Any opporLunlLy cosL ?
! Pow much money do l have?
! ls Lhere any rlsk of noL gemng pald?
! uoes probablllLy (expecLed value) even apply Lo a slngle game?
! CLher ?

! AcLually Lheres a dlerence beLween rlsk and uncerLalnLy, buL well
explore LhaL ln a laLer chapLer
3
8evlew Cf robablllLy
! 8andom varlable
! Can Lake on 2-93+31" :&.83' unllke 23"3+4-1-'($ :&+-&,.3'
! values come from experlmenLs, measuremenLs, random processes
" Say x ls a random varlable wlLh a ume sequence of values x
l
produced
by a random process, x






! 8andom 2#3' 1#" 13$3''&+-./ 43&1 LhaL Lhere ls no underlylng sLrucLure
" 1he sLrucLure ls dened by a probablllLy dlsLrlbuuon characLerlzed by
*&+&43"3+' and '"&('($'



4
8andom
process
x
8andom
varlable
x
8andom
sequence
x
l

8evlew Cf robablllLy
! LxpecLed value
! 1he expecLed value of a random varlable, x, ls Lhe welghLed value of 4
posslble values or ouLcomes



! Lxample




! 1hls calculaLe lmplles LhaL each ouLcome, x
l
, ls lndependenL of Lhe oLher m-1
ouLcomes
" 1hus no condluonal dependencles beLween Lhe m ouLcomes
" Pow do we deLermlne r[x
l
] ?
5
[ ] [ ]
!
"
# !
!
$ $ %& $ ' ! =
"
=
[ ] [ ] !"# $ !## $ ! % &## $ '# % ( ( )* ( +
,
&
! ,
,
= ! " ! = ! =
#
=
8evlew Cf robablllLy
! Law of Large numbers (LLn)
! lf x ls an lndependenL and ldenucally dlsLrlbuLed random varlable (llu), Lhe sum s
n
/n
converges Lo Lhe expecLed value of x, A, as n approaches lnnlLy









! varlance: Average squared error from Lhe mean


! SLandard uevlauon






6
"
#
$
#
%

" &&& " " " %
#
$ '
'
#
# ( $
#
$ '
' #
!
!
=
=
" =
+ + + = #
[ ] [ ] [ ] ( )
! ! !
" # $ # $ # %&' ! " =
[ ] ! " # $
!
"
#
$
" !#
"
"
! "
"
#
$
%
&
'
(
) "
[ ] [ ] ! " #$% " &' ! =
8evlew Cf robablllLy
! lndependenL random varlables: no condluonal dependence


! lf y ls a lagged sequence of x, Lhen


! Llnear (earson) correlauon, !, ls a measure of llnear dependence and ls
commonly used for 3..-*($&../ 2-'"+-,8"32
random varlables, x and y

! Llllpucally dlsLrlbuLed random varlables lnclude Causslan, L-dlsLrlbuuon, Cauchy,
Laplace, Loglsucs, eLc.
! CLherwlse non-correlauon does noL lmply lndependence
! Checks for lndependence of an elllpuc random varlable x sLarL wlLh checklng
auLo-correlauon of x, and lLs square, x
2
, or lLs de-Lrended square (x-L(x))
2






7
! "#$% ! % &'''& % & % ( "#$%
) * + ), - ), )
=
[ ]
[ ] ( ) [ ] ( ) [ ]
! "
# $ # $
! % ! " % " %
! "& !
!
" ! "
=
!"#$% &% ' !"#$ =
Came Model
! LeLs develop a sLochasuc model for Lhe nanclal game
! Say LhaL your wealLh aL ume l or L
l
ls S
l
! lnLeger perlods, l, and dlscreLe ume, L
l
! ?ou play Lhe game beLween ume l-1 and ume l over ume "L = L
l
- L
l-1

! ?our galn or loss (+3"8+1 or $%&163 -1 73&."%) ls "S
l
for LhaL l
Lh
game


! ?our lnlual wealLh ls S
0
aL ume l = 0 or L
0
=0.0

! 1he lmpllcauon ls LhaL Lhe orlglnal game ls played
only once
8
!" " "
# $ #% #
+ =
! " !
# # # ! + =
l-1
L
l-1

S
l-1
"S
l
l
L
l

S
l


Came Model
! ?ou can also compuLe Lhe varlance, var, and sLandard devlauon, Su, of
Lhe game






9:
[ ] [ ] [ ] ( )
[ ] !"# $%&## !" ()
! $%&## *$%"## + &%### ,-%###
!&.# #/&# !&##0 1 #/"# !*##
!" 2 !" 2 !" 345
*
* * *
* *
= =
= + =
! " ! + " =
! =
-100 200
CuLcome
l
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

Came Model
! now say LhaL you could play Lhe nanclal game a number of umes, n




! ln each game Lhe probablllues and payos for Lhe game remaln Lhe same, Lhus
Lhe wealLh lncremenLs, "S
l
, are -123*31231L and -231($&../ 2-'"+-,8"32 (llu)
! 1he varlance ls also ;1-"3, lLs 8,100 $
2
, Lhus "S ls llu/lv

! Cne of Lhe mosL lmporLanL sLausucal
prlnclples ls LhaL sums of llu/ lv
random varlables, e.g., "S approach
normal dlsLrlbuuon as n becomes
large (CenLral LlmlL 1heorem)

99
!
=
+ = + =
+ + + =
!
" #
# $ $ !
! % " $ !
!" ' !" ' '
!" ((( !" !" ' '
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
[ ] ! " !" # $
! " !" &'(
) " !" *
! " + ) " , !"
! )+ ,
"
!"
"
!" $ $
!" --- !" !" $ $
.
.
.
/ "
" . 0 / "
! "
! "
! "
! ! "
" # "
+ =
+ + + =
CenLral LlmlL 1heorem
91
!
"!!
#!!
$!!
%!!
&!!!
&"!!
&#!!
'&()!!! '&#)!!! '&*)!!! '&$)!!! '&+)!!! '&%)!!! '&,)!!! '"!)!!!
-
.
/
0
1
/
2
3
4
5672 9/. &!! 56:/ ;/01/23/
l wroLe a v8 program LhaL ran a
100 game sequence 10,000
umes. l compuLed Lhe average
galn per 6&43 '3<831$3 and
ploued a hlsLogram of Lhe
sums. 1he observed mean sum
was $17,002.

1hls ls a '-48.&(#1=

Would you play Lhe game a 100
umes? Would you play lL one
ume?
CenLral LlmlL 1heorem
92
!
"!!
#!!
$!!
%!!
&!!!
&"!!
&#!!
'&(! '&() '&#! '&#) '&)! '&)) '&$! '&$) '&*! '&*) '&%! '&%) '&+! '&+) '"!!
,
-
.
/
0
.
1
2
3
45.-67. 96:1 ;.- 96<.
l modled Lhe program Lo
compuLe Lhe average galn per
game ln each of 10,000
sequences and ploued a
hlsLogram of Lhese average
galns. 1he observed mean galn
was $170.02.
AnoLher Came: Coln lllpplng
! now leLs play anoLher nanclal game : coln lpplng.
! Say you galn $10 on heads and pay $10 on Lalls.








ls each lp an lndependenL evenL? WlLh Lhe same probablllues? And has
nlLe varlance? ?es, lLs llu/lv
! Coln lpplng ls a falr game slnce Lhe expecLed reLurn for each player
(counLer parLy) ls zero - nelLher player has an expecLed advanLage
! Coln lpplng ls characLerlzed as a blnomlal model
93
[ ] ( ) [ ] [ ] [ ] ( )
[ ] ( ) [ ] !"# ! "## !" %& "##! '( !"# '( !"# !" )
! "## !" ) !" ) !" *+, !# '( !"# '( !"# !" )
- - - - -
- - -
= = = ! " + ! =
= " = = ! " + ! =
8lnomlal Model for Coln lllpplng
94
3 Lrlals 40 Lrlals
0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3
$30 1 0.123
$20 1 0.230
$10 $10 1 3 0.300 0.373
$0 $0 1 2 1.000 0.300
-$10 -$10 1 3 0.300 0.373
-$20 1 0.230
-$30 1 0.123
- $ - $ - $ - $ 1 2 4 8 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
lllps lllps lllps
8lnomlal
Lree
AnoLher Came: ule 8olllng
! uslng a slngle dle, lf you roll a 6 Lhen you recelve $110, whlle
any oLher ouLcome resulLs ln you paylng $10
95
[ ] ( )
[ ] ( )
[ ] [ ] [ ] ( )
[ ] !""#$% ! %'((( !" )
! ((( ' % *(( *(( ' % !" + !" + !" ,-
! *(( ' % **( !
.
*
!*( /
.
0
!" +
*( ! **( !
.
*
!*( /
.
0
!" +
%
% % %
% % % %
= =
= ! = ! =
= " + " =
= " + " =
!
"
!
"!!
#!!
$!!
%!!
&!!!
&"!!
'(#!! (! (#!! (%!! (&)"!! (&)$!! (")!!! (")#!! (")%!!
*
+
,
-
.
,
/
0
1
234/ 6,+ &!! 7899 :,-.,/0,
AnoLher Came: ule 8olllng
96
l modled Lhe program and ran Lhe 100
dle rolllng game sequence 10,000 umes.
l compuLed Lhe sums for Lhe 100 rolls.
1he mean was $999.
8aLe Came
! now leLs conslder a game dened by +&"3' of galn or loss (raLes of reLurn)
! 43 chance of loslng 1
! 33 chance of galnlng 1.23





! 1he CenLral LlmlL 1heorem also addresses
*+#28$"' of llu / lv random varlables. lor
large n, Lhe fuLure value facLor, f
n
,
approaches a log-normal dlsLrlbuuon
! lf > ls lognormal, whaL does LhaL lmply abouL Lhe
probablllLy dlsLrlbuuon of +?
! noLhlng oLher Lhan lLs llu/lv
97

"
"
# $
"
" "
#
% # &$ " "
$ '(
'
'
$ '(
$ '( '
'
' $ '( '
= +
!
=
+ " =
( ) !!! " " " !!! " " " " " " !!! " " " # $
& " '# !!!! & " '# & " '# $
& " '# ( ( $ & " '# $ $
) * # ) * ) # * # ) * # +
, * # +
,
# -
- , , +
,
# -
- + ,
+ ! ! + + ! + ! + ! + + + + + ! =
+ ! ! + ! + ! =
+ = ! = + ! =
" "
= =
8aLe Came
! We can compuLe Lhe mean, a, and varlance, d
2
, of r






! We can also compuLe Lhe mean, mode, medlan, and varlance of f - buL
we need Lo know more abouL lognormal dlsLrlbuuons, so leLs delay for
now
98
( ) ! "# %&!'&()* & !
(
+
,
! "# %&-.* /*&( !
(
+
&
(
+ '
0
'
0
(
+ '
'
!
!
=
=
" # $
# $
"# $ % & '( )
*
( +
+ * !
=
+ =
8aLe Came: Log normal ulsLrlbuuon
1:
I again modified the VB
program for a sequence of 50
rate games. I ran the
sequence 10,000 times. I
computed the accumulated
future value factor for each
sequence and plotted this
histogram. So there are
10,000 observations in the
histogram. The accumulated
mean future value factor for
50 games was 1.126.
AnoLher 8aLe Came
! now leLs play Lhe same raLe game agaln buL Lrack Lhe 1&"8+&. .#6 of your wealLh,
ln(S), lnsLead of your 73&."%, S


! uene Lhe raLe of reLurn for naLural log wealLh, v
l
, lnsLead of Lhe raLe of reLurn, r
l
,
on wealLh (r ls Lhe slmple raLe of reLurn)
19
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
! " #$%&
(
( (
& #$
(
(
#$ )
( #$ ( #$ )
) ( #$ ( #$
*
& *
& * *
& *
*
*
& * * *
* & *+ *
+ =
!
!
"
#
$
$
%
& '
+ =
!
!
"
#
$
$
%
&
=
' =
+ =
'
'
'
'
!
!
"
# ! !
# !
!
"
# !
!
!
$ % %
%
%
$
%
%
&' "
! =
=
"
"
#
$
%
%
&
'
=
(
(
(
( )
! " #$% " '
' ' #$
= =

"
#
#
$
" %&
%
%
! =
AnoLher 8aLe Came Conunued
! So Lhe equlvalenL raLe game whlch Lracks Lhe naLural log of wealLh, ln(S), ls
! 43 chance of loslng .993 of your naLural log wealLh = ln(1-1)
! 33 chance of galnlng 1.242 of your naLural log wealLh = ln(1+1.23)

! 1he CenLral LlmlL 1heorem Lyplcally addresses '84' of llu / lv random
varlables. lor large n, Lhe sum of naLural log raLes, s
n
, approaches a
normal dlsLrlbuuon








11
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
! " # $
# % &' % &'
# ))) # # % &' % &'
'
* +
+ '
'
* +
+ , '
' - * , '
!
!
=
=
=
+ =
+ + + + =
AnoLher 8aLe Came Conunued
! 1he mean, u, and varlance, s
2
, of v can be calculaLed as before




! So v ls normally dlsLrlbuLed
! 1he normal dlsLrlbuuon has many nlce quallues lncludlng
! uependence ls dened by llnear correlauon
! 1he parameLers LhaL dene Lhe ul are also Lhe sLausucs - mean and varlance
! 1he sLausucs are scalable
12
[ ]
!
" #$ % & '
( ) ! "# !%&'%()* + !
(
,
-
! "# !%.+* /*%( !
(
,
+
(
, '
0
'
0
(
, '
'
!
!
=
=
" # $
# $
[ ]
!
" #$!! ! ! % & ! !
[ ]
!
" #$ % & '
lf u ls Lhe 2&-./ mean and s
2
ls Lhe 2&-./
varlance of naLural log reLurn raLe v
1hen Lhe 4#1"%./ raLe of reLurn ls also
normal wlLh mean 22u and varlance 22s
2

1hls ls 1#" Lrue for a lognormal dlsLrlbuLed
random varlable
CenLral LlmlL 1heorem
13
( ) ( )
( ) ! " #$%& '' ! " #$%& ! " #$%& ( #$
! " #$%& ( #$ ( #$
$ * & +
$
& ,
, + $
+ + + + + + + =
+ + =
!
=
1he '84 of a large number of llu/lv
random varlables ls approxlmaLely
1#+4&../ dlsLrlbuLed
Sums of v and ln(1+r) - naLural log raLes
of reLurn - approach normal dlsLrlbuuon
! " #$ %%%% ! " #$ ! " #$ '
! " #$ ' '
( ) $ *
(
$ +
+ * (
+ ! ! + ! + ! =
+ ! =
"
=
1he *+#28$" of a large number of llu/lv
random varlables ls approxlmaLely
.#61#+4&../ dlsLrlbuLed
roducLs of (1+r) and e
v
- fuLure value
facLors - approach lognormal
dlsLrlbuuon
( ) [ ]
( ) [ ]
!
"
!
#
$ "
"
% '( ) * + $ ,#
% # '( # ) * + $ ,#
+
! ! +
"
=
[ ]
!
"
# $
$
% " '( " )* + , - .# ! ! +
"
=
1he same parameLers, u and s
2
,dene
Lhe lognormal pdf buL are 1#" Lhe
mean and varlance of Lhe lognormal
dlsLrlbuuon
!
"!!
#!!
$!!
%!!
&!!!
&"!!
&#!!
&$!!
&'('&)*! &&'+'&)*$ )'&"'&)$( +'&+'&)+! *'"&'&)++ ('"*'&)%# &'"%'&))& &"'"'&))+ &!'$'"!!#
Sx rlce lrom 1930 Lo 2011
14
Sx prlce from 1930 Lo 2011
13,472 days
Latest Chart
Sx ually Ln 8eLurn 8aLes
15
13,471 dally naLural log
reLurn raLes from
1930 Lo 2011
Sx ually Ln 8aLe PlsLogram
16
13,471 dally naLural log
reLurn raLes from
1930 Lo 2011

Appears Lo be somewhaL
normal, buL ls lepLokuruc
and skewed
Mean: LxpecLed value
Medlan: 30 probable value
Mode: PlghesL frequency
Agaln Lhe CL1 says LhaL large sums of naLural log dally raLes approach a normal dlsLrlbuuon, buL
weve made no commenL on Lhe dally raLes Lhemselves oLher Lhan assume LhaL Lheyre llu/lv
SLock lnvesung
! 1he sLock prlces and reLurns can be modeled by elLher
! naLural log sLock prlces, ln(S), and naLural log raLes of reLurn, v, or
! SLock prlces, S, and slmple raLes of reLurn, r







! 1he addluve or mulupllcauve cenLral llmlL Lheorem ls uullzed.

" approaches a normal dlsLrlbuuon (for m slmulauons)


" approaches a lognormal dlsLrlbuuon (for m slmulauons)

! 1he dlsLrlbuuon of v and r ls noL yeL specled, buL Lhey &+3 assumed llu/lv
17
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
! "
! "
= =
= =
+ =
#
#
$
%
&
&
'
(
=
#
#
$
%
&
&
'
(
+ ) = + =
+ ) = + =
!
" #
#
$
!
!
" #
#
$
!
!
" #
# $ !
!
" #
# $ !
# " #% # # " #% #
& ' ("
)
)
+
)
)
,!
& ' (" ) ) + ) ,! ) ,!
& ' (" ) ) + ) ,! ) ,!
!
=
!
" #
#
$
!
=
+
!
" #
#
$ % &"
0 1 2 l-1 l n-1 n
SLandard rlce Models
18
! "#
! "# "
"
" ! "# "
$
$ $
&
' & (! $ $
!
=
+ " =
[ ]
!
"
# $
$
% " '( " )* + , - .# ! ! +
"
=
lf r ls llu/lv and n -> ~ lf v ls llu/lv and n -> ~
[ ]
!
"
# $
$
% " '( " ) * + ! !
"
=
( ) ( )
!
!
"
#
$
$
%
&
=
+ =
'! "
"
"
" ! "# "
$
$
%& '
' $ %& $ %&
0 1 2 l-1 l n-1 n
nu and ns
2
are ul
parameLers buL noL sLausucs
nu and ns
2
are boLh ul
parameLers and sLausucs -
Lhe mean and Lhe varlance
SLandard rlce Model
! SLandard nance Lheory assumes v and r are llu/lv and use Lhe addluve and
mulupllcauve CL1s and resulung normal and lognormal pdfs for sums and
producLs


! ln addluon, v
l
and r
l
, are relaLed as follows
! 1hus r and v $&11#" have Lhe same probablllLy dlsLrlbuuon

! So sLandard nance models make Lhe slmplesL &22-(#1&. assumpuon: naLural log
raLes, v, are 1#+4&../ dlsLrlbuLed whlch Lhen requlres LhaL slmple reLurn raLes, r,
are lognormally dlsLrlbuLed



! Powever some nance meLhods, l.e., slngle perlod meLhods, provlde useful
resulLs wlLh an assumpuon LhaL '-4*.3 raLes, r, are 1#+4&../ 2-'"+-,8"32, buL Lhls
assumpuon ls generally -1$#1'-'"31" wlLh Lhe sLandard model


2:
!" # $ % &' ( ! # * +
,
' -
- ,
,
' -
- , ! "
= =
+ = =
!
"
!
# % & '( = +
[ ]
[ ]
[ ]
! " # $ %
!
&
'
" # $ %( ) * + , -
" # $ % / &
) * + -,
!
'
= = +
= +
robablllLy ulsLrlbuuons Cver 1lme
29
!"#$ !#%$ !&#$ %$ &#$ #%$ "#$ '%%$ '&#$ '#%$ '"#$ &%%$ &&#$ &#%$ &"#$ (%%$
naLural log raLes, v,
are assumed
normal. 1he mean
and varlance of a
normal dlsLrlbuuon
scale llnear ln ume
1he fuLure value facLors (1+r) are
assumed log normally dlsLrlbuLed.
1he mean and varlance 2# 1#" scale
llnearly ln ume.
1hree AlLernauve Models
! 8elax Lhe nlLe varlance assumpuon
! 4 parameLer famlly of dlsLrlbuuons
generaLed by a Levy sLable process
! varlance doesnL converge as n lncreases

! 8elax Lhe llu assumpuon
! lnLroduce a slmple condluonally
dependenL, sLochasuc volaullLy model
! CA8CP ume serles

! use power law frequency dlsLrlbuuon
! very common dlsLrlbuuon ln naLure
! Scale lnvarlanL
21
SlmulaLed
volaullLy
Lssenual ConcepLs
! SysLems
! ueLermlnlsuc: lncludes chaouc
! SLochasuc: sLauonary (llu/lv) and non-sLauonary
! Complex: lncludlng self organlzed crlucallLy and complex adapuve sysLems
! SLandard nance models assume
! naLural log raLes, v, naLural log prlces, ln(S), naLural log of fuLure value facLors,
ln(1+r) are normally dlsLrlbuLed
! Slmple raLes, r, fuLure value facLors, e
v
and (1+r), and prlce, S, are lognormally
dlsLrlbuLed
! AcLually Lhe sLandard model doesnL L hlsLorlcal daLa wlLh any sLausucal
condence, buL Lhe model -' useful, buL has llmlLauons
! 1hlnk of newLons model of gravlLy
! AlLernauve models LhaL 2# L hlsLorlcal daLa beuer have noL been as
generally useful as Lhe sLandard model ln a varleLy of appllcauons
22
Addendum: Llnks & SLausucs noLauon
! Llnks
! Sclenuc Amerlcan
! A SLandard Model Skepuc
! redlcuon MarkeLs
! 1radeklng Al

! 8aLe noLauon summary
23
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%$&'()'*
,$"-
.--/"0
,$"-
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)$2'"#'(-
.--/"0
1#"-)"&)
)$2'"#'(-
!"#$
3)4
"
!
5
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2 /

1
#
6(&,"0
) 7 89:&; 7 89:<=&;
& )
$
>(5
-(&,"0
Addendum: More 8evlew Cf robablllLy
! 8andom number generaLor
! AcLually generaung a llu/ lv random varlable
! Agaln, +&12#4 doesnL #1./ mean llu/lv random
! Lxcel
" rand() unlform beLween 0 and 1
" normslnv(rand()) normally dlsLrlbuLed ~n[0,1]
" normlnv(rand(),, #) normally dlsLrlbuLed ~n[, #]
! lmporLance of llu / lv characLer of a random varlable
! llu -> Law of large numbers -> LxpecLed value
! llu / lv -> robablllLy denslLy funcuons for random varlable
-> CenLral llmlL Lheorem -> normal and lognormal dlsLrlbuuons for '84' &12
*+#28$"' of random varlable regardless of pdf for random varlable lLself
-> roduced by a sLauonary random process

24
Addendum: LogarlLhms and Lhe CL1
25

" # $%& # $%
" ' $%& " # $%& " ' # $%&
%
( )
)
%
( )
) ! "
= =
=
#
#
$
%
&
&
'
(
+ = )
naLural logs are usually lnLroduced as follows
1he relauonshlp ls generallzed as follows
Speclallzlng for sLandard nance
( )
( ) ( ) [ ]
( )
[ ]
[ ]

" # $ % # &' ( ) ( * +
" # $ % # & ( , * + -# * + -#
* + .
/ " # $ % # &
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+ 0
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/
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+ 0
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#
+ 0
0
#
+ 0
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0 0
/
! ! + "
! ! = + =
#
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(
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+ =
! !
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= = =
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