AL-06 Flash Poll

Conducted Monday, July 7 & Tuesday, July 8

N = 89,695 / n = 647
MoE = +/- 3.84% at 95% Confidence Interval
CLIENT: None; For Media Release
Republican Primary Runoff Election July 15, 2014
PRIMARY RESULTS
Head-to-Head (H2H)
05/27 Cygnal Poll 06/03 Results
MoE +/- 3.68%

DeMarco 19.8%
Palmer 18.1%
Beason 12.1%
Mathis 16.8%
Brooke 11.2%
Vigneulle 3.4%
Undecided 18.6%


DeMarco 32.7%
Palmer 19.7%
Beason 15.3%
Mathis 15.3%
Brooke 13.9%
Vigneulle 2.5%
Difference


DeMarco 12.9%
Palmer 1.6%
Beason 3.2%
Mathis -1.5%
Brooke 2.7%
Vigneulle -0.9%
NOTE: We pegged every candidate within the margin of error except DeMarco,
which we expected. Out of all the candidates, DeMarco had the highest
favorability at the time (52.5 fav 28.6 unfav). Undecided voters tend to break
toward the most well-known, well-liked candidate, and that occurred on 06/03/14.

We projected turnout at 111,931 and it ended up being 94,354.
RUNOFF POLLING
Head-to-Head (H2H)
Definite
DEMARCO
19.1%
Probably
DEMARCO
10.2%
Definite
PALMER
46.8%
Probably
PALMER
12.8%
Undecided
11.1%
RUNOFF POLLING
Jefferson County (H2H)
Definite
DEMARCO
24.0%
Probably
DEMARCO
11.9%
Definite
PALMER
45.6%
Probably
PALMER
11.3%
Undecided
7.2%
RUNOFF POLLING
Shelby County (H2H)
Definite
DEMARCO
12.7%
Probably
DEMARCO
8.2%
Definite
PALMER
50.8%
Probably
PALMER
12.4%
Undecided
15.9%
RUNOFF POLLING
All Other Counties (H2H)
Definite
DEMARCO
15.7%
Probably
DEMARCO
8.5%
Definite
PALMER
43.8%
Probably
PALMER
17.7%
Undecided
14.2%
FAVORABILITY
DeMarco vs. Palmer
0
10
20
30
40
50
45.7
29.5
8.6
4.2
10.4
1.7
20.1
31.2
22.6
14.9
9.9
1.3
DeMarco
Palmer
VOTING PROPENSITY
Highest & High
DeMarco
27.7%
Palmer
66.2%
Undec
6.1%
DeMarco
28.6%
Palmer
57.0%
Undec
14.4%
Highest Propensity
High Propensity
VOTING PROPENSITY
Mid & Lowest
DeMarco
33.5%
Palmer
51.6%
Undec
14.9%
DeMarco
27.3%
Palmer
53.2%
Undec
19.5%
Medium Propensity
Lowest Propensity
16.1%
45.8%
30.1%
8.0%
All
Most
Some
None
AGREEMENT WITH
Tea Party Views
Demographic Info
Political Ideology
Very Conservative 49.1%
Somewhat Conservative 33.2%
Independent 13.9%
Somewhat Liberal 2.6%
Very Liberal 1.2%
Age Range
18 to 34 3.9%
35 to 49 18.1%
50 to 64 35.4%
65+ 42.7%
Gender
Male 47.5%
Female 52.5%
Geography
Jefferson 52.1%
Shelby 29.1%
Others 18.8%
Primary
Propensity Zones
Highest 44.5%
High 26.9%
Medium 24.4%
Low 4.3%
For questions or comments related to this flash poll, please contact:
Brent Buchanan, Managing Partner
brent@cygn.al
Cory Brown, Data Strategist
cory@cygn.al
www.cygn.al