As a consultant of Southwestern University, below is my report on the case analysis. Analysis of the Case: Bob Hill wants a confidence of at least 75% that the project will be completed before the 270 th day If confidence is less than 75% then the project will be crashed. Mr. Hill wants to see a comparison for target dates of 240 and 250 days along the cost difference. 1. Identify activity durations 2. Construct a network diagram 3. Determine the probability of completion in less than 270 days 4. If required crash project to desired duration and calculate additional cost to the project.
Table 1:
Expected activity time (t) : t= (o+4m+p)/6 Variance of activity completion time: Variance = ((p-o)/6) 2
Excel OM project management software has been used to analyze the case and results are as follows:
The Estimates (Days) o m p Activity Description Preccessor(s) Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Expected Time Variance Crash (cost/day) A. Bonding, insurance, tax structuring 20 30 40 30 11.1 1,500 B. Foundation, concrete footings for boxes A 20 65 80 60 100 3,500 C. Upgrading skybox, stadium seating A 50 60 100 65 69.4 4,000 D. Upgrading walkways, stairwells, elevators C 30 50 100 55 136.1 1,900 E. Interior wiring, lathes B 25 50 35 30 2.8 9,500 F. Inspection approvals E 0.1 0.1 0.1 1 0 0 G. Plumbing D, E 25 30 35 30 2.8 2,500 H. Painting G 10 20 30 20 11.1 2,000 I. Hardware/AC/metal workings H 20 25 60 30 44.4 2,000 J. Tile/carpeting/windows H 8 10 12 10 0.4 6,000 K. Inspection J 0.1 0.1 0.1 1 0 0 L. Final detail work/cleanup I, K 20 25 60 30 44.4 4,500 Page 2 of 4
Trinadh Mamandur 05/01/2014 Table 2
Therefore from the above analysis, the critical path using the expected time is: Activity A (30 days) -> Activity C (65 days) -> Activity D (55 days) -> Activity G (30 days) -> Activity H (20 days) -> Activity I (30 days) -> Activity L (30 days). Expected Days of Completion: 260 days. Project Variance (from Table 1) = 11.1111+69.4444+136.1111+2.7778+11.1111+44.4444+44.4444 = 319.4443
Project Standard Deviation = (319 .4443) = 17.87 days
Project Management Precedences; 1 time estimate For Expected Time Estimate Data Immediate Predecessors (1 per column) Activity Time Pred 1 Pred 2 A 30 B 60 A C 65 A D 55 C E 30 B F 1 E G 30 D E H 20 G I 30 H J 10 H K 1 J L 30 I K Results Activity Early Start Early Finish Late Start Late Finish Slack A 0 30 0 30 0 B 30 90 60 120 30 C 30 95 30 95 0 D 95 150 95 150 0 E 90 120 120 150 30 F 120 121 259 260 139 G 150 180 150 180 0 H 180 200 180 200 0 I 200 230 200 230 0 J 200 210 219 229 19 K 210 211 229 230 19 L 230 260 230 260 0 Project 260 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 L K J I H G F E D C B A Time Gantt Chart Critical Activity Noncritical Activity Slack Enter the times in the appropriate column(s). Enter the precedences, one per column. (Do not try to Page 3 of 4
Trinadh Mamandur 05/01/2014 To determine the confidence level for the project: Z = (due date expected date)/Proj Std Deviation = (270 260)/ 17.87 = 0.5595 p(Z > .5595) = 0.71226 or 71.3 % Thus, there is 71.3% chance that the expansion of the on-campus stadium can be accomplished in 260 days. If Expected Date of completion is 250 days. Inputting the values in the above formula, We get, Z = 86.6%
If Expected Date of completion is 240 days. Inputting the values in the above formula, We get, Z = 95.26%
To be able to crash to 250 days, Crash A for 10 days down to 20 days 10 days*$1,500 = $15,000 Total Extra Cost = $15,000 To be able to crash to 240 days, First to crash is activity A, this has the lowest cost of $1,500. The duration of activity A can only be reduced by 10 days maximum; thus cost of $1,500 multiplied by 10 is $15,000. The next one to be crashed is activity D which has the cost of $1,900. Crash D for 10 days down to 10 days; thus cost of $1,900 multiplied by 10 is $19,000. Total cost = $34,000
Points to be noted: In order to crash the project to 250 days, task A can be reduced by 10 days which will have an additional cost of $15,000 with an 86% chance that the project will be completed by 270th day. To crash the project to 240 days, both tasks A and D can be reduced by 10 days that would create an additional cost of $34,000 for the project and increase the chance for completion to 95%. There is a 71.23% chance that the stadium will be in place with the 270 day deadline Page 4 of 4
Trinadh Mamandur 05/01/2014 7 activites (A,C,D,G,H,I,L) are on the critical path. If any one of them is delayed for any reason, the entire project will be delayed. 5 activities (B,E,F,J,K) are not critical but have some slack time built in. This means Southwestern University can borrow from their resources, if needed, possibly to speed up the entire project Conclusion According to the above analysis, there is a better chance of the building project being finished when the expected date of completion is 240 days at a 95.25% confidence. Crashing the project to 240 days seems to be the most beneficial according to time. The costs will increase, however, considering the only concern of the coach is to have the field ready for opening day, crashing the deadline to 240 days is what is best.