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A monthly newsletter covering global economy, energy, investments, life sciences, healthcare, food & water
Contact Information Volume 1, Issue 2 December 2009
“The Sonti Report” In This Issue
Issued by:
Pat V. Sonti, Advisor Page 2: Clean Energy Project Development in Current Economic Conditions.
P.O. Box 423 Page 7: Pharmaceutical Companies Ramp-Up on Contract Manufacturing.
Short Hills, NJ 07078 USA Page 9: Domestic U.S. Natural Gas; Transition Fuel for Cleaner, Smarter, & Secure Energy Future.
Telephone: +1-973-467-2923
FAX: +1-973-665-2361 Page 14: Addressing Fly Ash; A Sensible & Viable Approach.
E-mail: pvsonti@comcast.net
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/patvsonti Curtain Raiser
Facebook: www.facebook.com/pat-v-sonti
Twitter: twitter.com/patsonti As the global economy is trying to recover from the Great Recession, there are major concerns on the
You Tube: www.youtube.com/patvsonti resulting impact of quantitative easing by central banks in developed countries which have injected massive
amounts of low interest capital into the financial markets in order to preclude deflation which occurred during
the Great Depression. Currently, there is a major “carry trade” occurring wherein massive infusion of low
interest funding is chasing various asset classes in emerging markets such as Brazil, China and India on the
hope and potential that adequate returns from these countries can fund, finance and continue stock market
rallies. It should be noted that this “massive speculation” is inflating asset bubbles in stocks, commodities,
real estate, currencies, thus creating unavoidable risks for the recovery of the global economy including
emerging markets. In such a case, it is vital to avoid a “depression-inflation” scenario based on the above
“asset bubble” which may burst without much advance notice to investors. Simply, inflation occurs when too
much money is chasing too few goods and services. A key underpinning factor to any tangible global
economic recovery is the ability for countries to maintain economic dynamism based on their own innate
capacity, urge and ability to invent / innovate / improvise solid job creation for products and services. In the
case of the U.S., the current “carry trade” has never been fully tested before and is being undertaken by the
Federal Reserve against the backdrop of unemployment rates as high as 17.5%, rising federal deficits and
burgeoning national debt while domestic consumer demand, constitutes 70% of U.S. GDP, is not rebounding
even with major stimulus funding.
The energy sector is also undergoing a major transformation as traditional business and market
fundamentals are on the verge of potential shift through proposed legislative means on climate change rather
than through market mechanisms of developing and deploying advanced innovative technologies into
projects and assets as in the case of India and China. Along these lines, it is imperative to clearly articulate,
understand and appreciate clean energy project development and finance in the current economic
conditions. Main goal must be to achieve sustainability of the sector.
There is much emphasis on reducing the cost of prescription drugs, increase role of generics, and enhanced
role of biotech. In addition, there is much attention on introducing new life saving molecules in key
therapeutic areas through cost effective and efficient contract drug discovery, contract research, clinical trials
and contract manufacturing. Thus, pharmaceutical companies are targeting their efforts on ramping up on
contract manufacturing.
Domestic natural gas is gaining much bipartisan support in U.S. Congress as a “bridge fuel” to a clean
energy economy. There is full alignment between policymakers, regulators and industry on harnessing local
natural gas supplies, conventional and non-conventional, in order reduce crude oil imports, achieve energy
independence, and transition to increasing role of alternate / renewable energy. Based on advanced
technological innovation of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, commercially proven methods exist
today to enable the U.S. to meaningfully increase domestic natural gas supplies to meet increasing
wholesale and retail demand from consumers across-the-board.
Fly ash is a residue from coal fired power plants and its leakage from onsite storage ponds poses a serious
environmental threat. Currently there are proven advanced innovative technologies to process fly ash and
convert to beneficial byproducts which serve as a feedstock to cement industry, road construction materials
and other viable uses. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is currently contemplating legislation to
classify fly ash as a hazardous waste whereby beneficial methods for conversion may no longer be viable.
In Next Issue
Smart Grid; Its Role in a Clean Energy Economy.
Industrial Waste Energy Recovery; Makes Common Sense.
Addressing Critical Issues Related to Clean Water.
Electronic Health Records; Making Healthcare Reforms Effective.
Marcellus Shale; Major Natural Gas Supply for Northeast U.S.
This newsletter has been prepared by; Pat V. Sonti, Advisor; co-author(s); or other contributing author(s), as so indicated in each article contained herein, and issued for private
circulation at no cost and a on complimentary basis via e-mail. This newsletter covers insights, perspective, opinion, commentary, critique, analysis as well as research and other
content. This newsletter utilizes certain information and / or data in the public domain and is referenced accordingly. This newsletter may contain confidential or proprietary
information and / or data. No part of this document may be reproduced, copied or otherwise reproduced without prior written approval.
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Covers; (i) conceptual, basic, preliminary and detailed Covers; (i) financial analysis and modeling; (ii) structuring
engineering; (ii) Project Feasibility Report (PFR); (iii) of equity, grants and debt; (iii) critical inputs regarding
Detailed Feasibility Report (DFR); (iv) Front-End- equity and debt agreements through financial closing; (iv)
Engineering-Design (FEED); (v) Environmental Impact comprehensive risk assessment mitigation & management
Studies (EIS) and; (vi) Commercial market studies, Risk report; (v) due diligence, syndicating and securing senior /
assessment and mitigation analysis. During this phase, it is subordinated debt, working capital, and financial closing
prudent for project developers, promoters and equity costs. If non-recourse debt financing cannot be obtained,
lender’s may opt for limited recourse financing by way
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Continual monitoring of project critical path and milestone Funding & Financing In Today’s Current Economic
schedules is required upto commercial operation of the Conditions via Private-Public-Partnerships
facility. In principle, any target total project cost structure
for a single project follows the below items of hard costs As indicated earlier, the project development phase must
and soft costs in addition to working capital and interest be funded by the promoters, project developers and equity
investors. In otherwords, balance sheet strength is essential
during construction. It should be noted that the total project
cost (CAPEX) must be supported by a very detailed project for undertaking any clean energy projects. In today’s
financial model in MS-Excel to be mutually developed and economic conditions, it is very difficult to fund the project
agreed upon by the various equity and debt stakeholders. development costs with debt in the form of either senior or
subordinated debt including working capital lines of credit.
Hard Costs In some cases, depending on the individual merits of the
(i) Civil and structural and related costs; (ii) mechanical clean energy project, some projects may attract either
equipment, process systems; (iii) electrical equipment and federal and / or state government matching grants.
systems; and (iv) auxiliaries and ancillary equipment and Private-Public-Partnerships (P-P-P)
process systems. Sources Funding & Financing
Equity Project developers, equity & tax
Soft Costs investors/funds, and promoters
(i) Pre-operative expenses (from initial project to Debt Commercial banks, financial
commercial operations); (ii) preliminary expenses (legal, institutions, federal and state govt.
Working Capital agencies
accounting, statutory, corporate, insurance); (iii) turnkey
Grants Federal and state govt. agencies,
project engineering and management services; and (iv) non-profits and foundations.
technology(s) license fee (as applicable). The project
developments costs incurred are included in this category. Source: Various government and industry sources
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As with any effective policy, unless and until the U.S. References
Congress enacts comprehensive, bipartisan, fair, balanced, 1. Contract Pharmaceutical Manufacturing, Research
transparent, and equitable healthcare legislation and and Packaging, Report Code: PHM043C, October
regulatory framework, the task of dealing with reducing 2009, BCC Research, Wellesley, MA, USA.
the costs of prescription and generic drugs will be left 2. Indian Contract Manufacturing-A Hot Opportunity,
solely to the private sector and competing market forces of Report No. ASDR-2266, March 2008, RNCOS
globalization as in the past. Industry Research Solutions.
The U.S. currently is a global leader in CMO’s which have
been developed solely with private sector partnership.
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Domestic U.S. Natural Gas; Transition Fuel for Cleaner, Smarter, & Secure Energy Future
Pat V. Sonti, Advisor, Short Hills, New Jersey, USA
Scott M. Shemwell, D.B.A., Houston, Texas, USA
Introduction The U.S. natural gas pipeline grid comprises of; 1) more
than 210 natural gas pipeline systems; 2) 305,000 miles of
There is no doubt that natural gas, the lowest carbon fuel, interstate and intrastate transmission pipelines; 3) more
remains the cleanest fossil fuel when compared to existing than 1,400 compressor stations that maintain pressure on
conventional hydrocarbon sources such as crude oil and the natural gas pipeline network and assure continuous
coal. Significant private sector efforts have been made in forward movement of supplies; 4) more than 11,000
the U.S. over the last 20 years to increase natural gas usage delivery points, 5,000 receipt points, 1,400 interconnection
for power generation thereby displacing crude oil and coal. points that provide for the transfer of natural gas
Today, with major advances in state-of-the-art technology, throughout the U.S.; 5) 24 hubs or market centers that
there is much focus on harnessing non-conventional provide additional interconnections; 6) 400 underground
sources of natural gas via shale gas in the lower-48 states natural gas storage facilities; 7) 49 locations where natural
for which the U.S. has vast and abundant domestic gas can be imported / exported via pipelines; and 8) 8 LNG
resources to enhance its energy independence and national (liquefied natural gas) import facilities; and 9) 100 LNG
security from crude oil imports and coal usage. As major peaking facilities (1).
bipartisan support continues to grow in the U.S. Congress,
there is major legislation proposed pending enactment to
ensure that natural gas takes center-stage as the “bridge
fuel of choice” for a clean energy economy coupled with
energy conservation, energy efficiency, reducing carbon
footprint, and integration of renewable energy sources such
as wind, solar and biofuels. Using clean domestic natural
gas will also enhance the U.S. economy. Since it is
produced in the U.S., higher gas demand will create more
jobs, and using domestic gas in lieu of imported crude oil
would reduce current trade imbalances, keeping energy
dollars in the U.S. instead of exporting crude oil dollars
overseas.
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Recent Growth
Infrastructure Limitations
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National Security & Energy Independence First; with the advent of shale gas reserves as described
herein, natural gas becomes the primary fuel of energy
Since the 1973 oil embargo, all subsequent U.S. independence. Natural gas is not only the feedstock for
Administrations have called for “energy security” by clean electricity, but the basis of many carbon based
reducing the import of foreign crude oil. During that products such as plastics, fertilizer, and fabric.(7) Industrial
timeframe the importation of crude oil has increased from utilization, as well as gas liquefaction,(8) round out the
1,183,996,000 barrels in 1973 to 3,580,694,000 barrels in value from a robust economic hydrocarbon molecule.
2008 (3). This represents a growth from approximately 30%
of the total U.S. consumption in 1973 (4) to 58% in 2007 Second; the beneficial environmental impact, is partly
(last year reported) (5). understood in that burning natural gas emits a small
amount of GHG; however, what is often overlooked is the
Given the continued reluctance to drill for crude oil outside small environmental footprint from ongoing natural gas
of the current producing areas of the U.S., it is unlikely that production. Compared, for example, to wind and solar
meaningful reductions in the import of crude oil will be power, natural gas is more environmental friendly since the
attained anytime soon. Conversely, the level of natural gas industry has long remediated the landscape and is “good
imports has remained relatively steady, despite significant neighbors.” Natural gas can serve as a “bridge fuel” to a
increases in consumption. low-carbon, sustainable energy future. In particular, natural
gas can provide the critical low-carbon “firming” or back-
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has evolved rapidly and the arrival of this unconventional Econometric Estimate of Gas Well Drilled is estimated including percentage of dry wells attributed
to gas vs. oil wells
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Source: www.caer.uky.edu
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Source: www.hyderabadolx.in
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