14 JULY 18 JULY 2014

W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Buy on fear, sell on greed.
Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.
The trend is your friend.
Amateurs want to be right.
Professionals want to make money.

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REFERENCE RATE
(USD)
60.1855
REPO RATE 8%
REVERSE REPO 7%
CRR 4%
INFLATION 6.01%
KEY RATES As on 11/07/2014
MARKET EVENTS
MARKET OUTLOOK
Markets eyed on Union Budget to be
presented last week but reeled
disappointment due lack of specifics
in it by Govt. as they left open
questions on how it will reduce the
fiscal deficit and restore investor
confidence and hence rupee
depreciated on the same day.
However, it gained on Friday on
dollar sales by a large corporate but
that was not enough to prevent the
weekly fall of rupee by 0.3%
snapping two weeks of gains.
Coming week is looking out for CPI
and WPI data to be released on
Monday which may be key factors
for its direction further.
Rupee posts 1st weekly fall in
3; gains on day on corp dollar
sales.
Euro dips in Asia on
Portuguese bank woes.
Yuan set to fall slightly this
week underperforms
midpoint.
Pound Rally Wanes Amid Signs
of Slowing U.K. Growth
CURRENCIES
PREVIOUS
RATE
CURRENT
RATE
% CHANGE
USDINR 60.0350 60.1850 0.24
EURINR 81.5550 81.8875 0.40
GBPINR 102.8225 103.0425 0.21
JPYINR 58.8400 59.4000 0.95









































USDINR


EURINR
USDINR last week consolidated mainly in a tight range and finally closed on a flat note. It found
support around 59.9000 and strong rebounding was seen towards 60.4000. Consolidation is
continuing since last four weeks and it needs a closing above 60.6000 to gain strength and move
on higher side while 59.7000 may act as key support for the coming week.
EURINR last week consolidated near the lower band of upward channel pattern and closed on a
flat note with positive bias. If the positive biasness continues then it may move towards the upper
band i.e. in the resistance range of 82.6000-82.9000. While on lower side, breakout of channel
pattern may happen if it decisively surpasses the level of 81.4000.


























CURRENCIES S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
USDINR 59.7000

59.3000 59.0000 60.7000 61.0000 61.4000
EURINR 81.4000 80.9000 80.4000 82.3000 82.7000 83.2000

GBPINR 102.4000 102.0000 101.6000 103.6000 104.0000

104.4000
JPYINR 58.9000 58.6000 58.3000 59.8000

60.2000 60.6000
PIVOT TABLE
DATE TIME COUNTRY EVENT
BLOOMBERG
ESTIMATE
PREVIOUS
LEVEL
14-JULY-2014
5:30
PM
INDIA Indian CPI (YOY) 7.95% 8.28%
15-JULY-2014
06:00
PM
US
Core Retail Sales
m/m
0.5% 0.1%
15-JULY-2014
6:00
PM
US Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.3%
17-JULY-2014
6:00
PM
US
Unemployment
Claims
310k 304k


INTERNATIONAL UPDATES
Canadian Dollar Drops amid Unexpected Decline in Jobs.
Brazils Real Posts Weekly Decline on Renewed Portugal Stress.
Yen Rises Versus Most Majors on European Bank Stress.










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