Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
• INTRODUCTION
• OVERVIEW OF VIETNAM
• ENRGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTIOPN IN VIETNAM
• ENRGY CONSUMPTION IN HOCHIMINH CITY
• CONCLUSION
INTRODUCTION
7.3%
800
7.1% 704 – Exports growing at 20% yoy.
571
534
440
480 – Strong FDI: USD 20.3 bn in 2007 and 57bn during
7% the first 9 months of 2008.
400
6.0%
$60 52.3 50
40%
Export (US$bn) Import (US$bn) 48.4 45
$50 44.5 40
36.9 40.0 35 30%
$40 65.0
31.1 32.2 30
25 17% 17%
$30 25.0 20%
26.5 20
20.0 15 9% 11%
$20 4% 10%
10 20.3
5 4.0 5.8 10.2
$10 1.7
0 0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F FDI (US$ bn) FDI (%of GDP)
1. Rapid growth has naturally resulted in some growing pains
35%
Inflation Monthly CPI Yoy CPI 28.3% 27.9%
30%
CPI up 12.6% for 2007 and 27.9% for 25.2%
26.9% 27.0%
2008. Sep-
07
Oct-
07
Nov-
07
Dec-
07
Jan-
08
Feb-
08
Mar-
08
Apr-
08
May-
08
Jun- Jul-08 Aug-
08 08
Sep-
08
by new production capacity and rising Import (US$bn) Export (US$bn) Trade deficit (US$bn)
exports of manufactured products.
1. Some takes on the Vietnam economy for 1H 2008
Since mid-June, economic data point to an improved macro-economic situation and both stock and bond
markets show some signs of increased investor confidence:
GDP: Growth slowed to 6.5 % in the first nine months, indicating that tight demand management policies
by the Government has shown effects in restraining the economy. The forecast figure is 6% for 2008.
CPI: A significant slowdown in the monthly rate of inflation since July compared to H1 2008
Trade: A marked improvement in the trade deficit owing to both a sharp rise in exports and reduced
imports; 2008 YTD deficit for September is USD15b; this deficit is expected to be limited to US$20b in
2008
Foreign direct investment: YTD FDI commitments reached USD57.1b, or 181.3% higher than the whole of
2007, showing continued confidence by foreign investors;
The FX market has been stabilized since the short turmoil period in early June.
The VN-Index has recovered since the low in mid-June.
Both short-term interest rates for bank deposits and long-term bond yields are coming down.
PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY CAPABILITIES
Up to 2020
- Coal: 50-61 million tons/annum, (32-40 Mt for power generation)
- Crude: 10 – 18 million tons/annum
- Natural Gas: 14-16 BCM/annum
- Hydropower: 58 - 65 TWh/annum
- Uranium Potential: RAR: 113 tons, EAR-I: 16563 tons
- Up to 2030
- Coal: ~ 70 - 80 million tones/annum
- Crude: ~10 – 18 Million tons/annum
- Natural Gas: ~14 – 20 BCM/annum
- Hydropower ~75 -83 TWh/annum
Renewable Energy
2005 Up to 2020 Up to 2030
MW GWh MW GWh MW GWh
Small/mini Hydro 185.00 555 1000 - 1200
Wind Power 0.80 na 300 - 400
Solar Cells 1.15 na 4-6 4,200-
5,200 3,500 10,000
Biomass 150.00 na 310-410
Geothermal 0 0 100
Total 336.95 ~600 1700-2100
MAJOR ENERGY-ECONOMIC INDICATORS
ITEMS
ITEMS 1990
1990 2005
2005
GDP
GDP(USD/cap.)
(USD/cap.) 114
114 645
645
Commercial
CommercialEnergy
EnergyConsumption
Consumption(KgOE/cap.)
(KgOE/cap.) 63
63 250
250
Electricity
ElectricityConsumption
Consumption(KWh/cap.)
(KWh/cap.) 93
93 540
540
Energy
EnergyIntensity
Intensity(KgOE/1000USD95)
(KgOE/1000USD95) 312
312 500
500
Growth
GrowthRate
Rateof
ofGDP
GDP (%)
(%) 7.5
7.5
Growth
GrowthRate
Rateof
ofEnergy
EnergyConsumption
Consumption(%/year
(%/year)) 11.2
11.2
Growth
GrowthRate
Rateof
ofElectricity
ElectricityConsumption
Consumption (%/year
(%/year)) 14.2
14.2
Energy
EnergyElasticity
Elasticity 1.5
1.5
Electricity
ElectricityElasticity
Elasticity 1.9
1.9
Final Energy demand
70000
In d u s try
A g ricu ltu re
60000 T ran s p o rt
C o m m erce
res id en ce
50000
40000
K TO E
30000
20000
10000
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
I n d u str y 11454 15875 25579 39496 52946 65996
A g r ic u ltu r e 532 728 941 1085 1189 1348
Tr a n spor t 6401 10423 17437 26665 40738 52120
C om m e r c e 2009 3112 5261 7687 10136 12804
r e sid e n c e 319 4390 13088 21748 31927 41518
Renewable Energy
120.0%
100.0%
80.0%
Renewable energy
60.0%
Total energy
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Renewable energy 41.6% 30.5% 20.4% 15.8% 11.7% 9.4%
Total energy 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Primary energy balance
2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
Physical
Physical unit
Physical unit KTOE Physical unit KTOE Physical unit KTOE unit KTOE KTOE
Primary energy
demand 43832 63023 110627 171828 317391
Domestic energy
resouce 61145 76238 93780 103994 121792
include:
19,86Mll
Crude oil 17,8Mll. Tons 18120 tons 20217 20Mll tons 20360 20,7Mll tons 21073 20Mll tons 20360
Gas 6,89Bll m3 6205 9,62Bll m3 7759 14,19Bll m3 12772 15,6Bll m3 14040 20Bll m3 18000
Hydro 17,49TWh 3762 33,76TWh 7259 58,67TWh 12614 60,08TWh 12919 67,8TWh 14586
Small hydro 1,99TWh 428 4,2TWh 904 9,78TWh 2104 28,1TWh 6042
Renewable energy 44,8Mll tons 14788 45,8Mll tons 15134 49Mll tons 16170 55,7Mll tons 18378 63Mll tons 20805
1 ,00 0 1,000
90 0 900
80 0 800
70 0 700
60 0 600
50 0 500
40 0 400
30 0 300
20 0 200
10 0 100
- -
19 9 5 20 0 0 20 0 5 20 1 0 20 1 5 20 2 0 20 2 5 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Elec tric ity output Elec tric ity dem and (base) Electricity output Elec tric ity demand (high)
Stressful system: in 2008, required capacity of 12,000 – 13,000 MW while maximum capacity is only 12,000 MW.
For years, Vietnam has had a power saving campaign and a rolling black-out calendar.
EVN - import electricity from China. Near future power imports - include Laos & Cambodia (2015: 13 TWh & 35m
tons of coal; 2020: import about 38-53% of power demand)
Future is even worse: annual capacity shortage of 800–1,000 MW
Base case: shortage of 46.3 TWh in 2015 and 159.8 TWh in 2020
High case: shortage of 102.4 TWh in 2015 and 270.8 TWh in 2020 (source: Vietnamnet)
Power generation development plan
(by types of generation)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Source: EVN
IV-ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN HCMC
Overview of Hochiminh City
• Biggest city in Viet Nam, located in the Southern. It is over
2000 square kilometers large, with a Subtropical Climate.
• Population: nearly 7 million permanent inhabitants, nearly
8% population of Vietnam. The daily need of such a
population is a great logistic problem for the municipal
authorities.
• A great economical activity occurs around the area. The
industrial one is growing by 10% in 2009, contributing to
more than 30% of the national GDP growth. The main
industries are food processing, textile, garment, plastics,
and mechanics. 50% GDP of the HCMC are represented by
servicing activities: banking, transport, export, trade and
tourism. Agricultural production represents only 10% of the
economy.
• Traffic jam puts a great challenge for development.
Energy consumption
Fuel Energy
• Used by vehicles, industrial plants, and domestic
comfortable 4 millions liters of fuel are burned every day
for industrial production, power plants, transport.
• The fuels used are petrol, gas, LPG mainly imported (60%
the LPG are imported). Viet Nam is an oil exporting
country. But we imported 95% the fuel needs. Dung Quat
oil refinery zone was operated in Feb., 2009 supply a
large range of oil refined products and a municipal
program aiming an efficient and economical use of
energy.
• The most part of industrial plant use old and obsolete
technology. Estimations 50% of the industrial equipments
are obsolete, 40% are acceptable and 10% are modern
equipments.
Energy consumption
Electricity Energy
• In 2007, electric consumption in HCMC is 12.043 billions
kWh, Electricity is used in industrial plants as a source of
energy, for motors, thermal source, home facilities.
• Tourism and other linked activities are also great electric
energy consumers: air conditioners, over lighting, hot
water, entertainment are as many factors of electricity
wasting.
• According to the development planning of the municipality,
the energy growth from 2001-2005 is among 12.2% and
from 2006-2007 is 8.6% per year. Maximum energy
consumption in HCMC in 2007 is 2,121 MW; time for
maximum energy consumption is about 6100h.
Energy consumption
• In 2007, Vietnam has no enough electricity
for using, so electricity HCMC in 2007 is the
same situation. cutted down 215 million kWh,
includes: public lighting: 37.9%, for office:
33.8%, lighting for advertising: 7.4%, other:
6.7%. Structure for using the electricity in
HCMC in 2007 as flowing in table 1:
Table 1: Structure for using the electricity
in HCMC in 2007
50000 2%
0 0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Electricity production per capita in some countries of APEC
(Unit: kWh/capita. annum)
Year 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005
tû k W h
1400 18%
16% 1200
16%
1200 15%
14%
1000 900
12%
680
800 10%
9.40%
1
600 8%
430 5.80% 5.80%
327.8 6%
400
4%
200
2%
0 0%
2003 2005 2010 2015 2020
Tiê u t h ụ đ iệ n , t ỷ k W h 1 Tố c đ ộ t ă n g t rư ở n g
Forecast the demand of energy
consumption in 2015 in HCMC