Purpose of Statistical Testing

• To determine whether or not a

population has a particular probability
distribution using a sample
• To determine whether a parameter has
a particular value based on a sample

Statistical Testing
(For the Mean and Variance)

Statistical Testing Fallibility of the Null Hypothesis

1. Make a statement (statistical • The testing of a null hypothesis is not
hypothesis/null hypothesis, H0) about infallible since it is based on a sample
the probability distribution drawn from the population, and not on
2. Test the hypothesis on a sample of the the entire population
population by computing a sample
statistic (test statistic)
3. Accept or reject the hypothesis based
on the value of the test statistic
4. If the null hypothesis is rejected, the
complementary hypothesis
(alternative hypothesis, H1) will be
accepted

Possible Outcomes for H0 Size of Type I Error

1. H0 is accepted, when H0 is TRUE
2. H0 is rejected, when H0 is TRUE
3. H0 is accepted, when H0 is FALSE
4. H0 is rejected, when H0 is FALSE
Outcomes 1 and 4: no error is made;
correct course of action
Outcome 2: Type I error
Outcome 3: Type II error
• probability of rejecting H0 when H0 is
true
α = P[Reject H0 when H0 is true]
Significance level of the test – when α is
fixed at some level for H0 and is
expressed as some percentage
– equivalent to (1 – confidence level)
– commonly used values are 5%
(significant) and 1% (highly significant)

1
 Test of the Mean of a Probability
Distribution
• The hypothesis that the mean (µ) of a
probability distribution is equal to a
specific value (µ0) can be tested by
using the sample mean X as the test
statistic.
H0: µ = µ0
H1: µ ≠ µ0
** X is assumed to be normally
distributed, or at least approximately
normally distributed
Test of the Mean of a Probability
Distribution
• Under the null hypothesis (µ = µ0), the
probability that the sample mean (and
therefore the population mean) lies
within the acceptable range is:
P[( µ0 − c) < X < ( µ0 + c)] = 2φ ( z ) − 1
where: zσ
c=
n

Test of the Mean of a Probability Test of the Mean of a Probability

Distribution Distribution
• If σ is unknown, the probability • H0 is accepted if X lies between (µ0 – c)
statement becomes: and (µ0 + c)
• Otherwise, H0 is rejected
P[( µ0 − c) < X < ( µ0 + c)] = 2 F (t ) − 1

where: ts
c=
n

Test of the Mean of a Probability Test of the Mean of a Probability

Distribution Distribution
f (X ) • If α is the probability that H0 is rejected
when it is true, then 1-α would be the
Reject H0 Accept H0 Reject H0
probability that H0 is accepted when it
is true
• Therefore,
1-α = 2Φ(z)-1 (for known σ)
= 2F(t)-1 (for unknown σ)
α α
2 2

µ0 - c µ0 µ0 + c X

2
Test of the Mean of a Probability
Distribution
• Thus, we can solve for Φ(z) and F(t):
α measurement is independent and made
φ (z) = 1 − (for known σ)
2
α
F (t ) = 1 − (for unknown σ)
2 and sample standard deviation are
• After we get the value of z or t, which is
Φ(z) or F(t), we can then derive z or t
from the table of values
Solution
For 5% level of significance, α = 0.05
α as:
p = F (t ) = 1 − = 0.975
2
degrees of freedom = n − 1 = 10 − 1 = 9
From the table, t = t0.975,9 = 2.26
Therefore,
ts (2.26)(3.7")
c= = = 2.6"
n 10
Test of the Variance of a
Probability Distribution
• Under the assumption that a population
is normally distributed, the null
hypothesis (H0) that the population
variance σ2 is equal to σ02 can be tested
against the alternative hypothesis (that
σ2 is not equal to σ02) using the sample
variance S2 as the test statistic
Example
An angle is measured 10 times. Each
with the same precision, i.e., the 10
measurements constitute a random
sample of size 10. The sample mean
calculated from the measurements as:
x=42°12’16” and S=3.7”. Test at the
5% significance level the hypothesis
that the population mean µ is
42°12’16.0”, against the alternative
that µ is not equal to 42°12’16.0”.
Solution
The limits (critical values) can then be computed
( µ 0 − c) = 42°12 '13.4"
( µ 0 + c) = 42°12 '18.6"
Given that the sample mean is 42°12’14.6”
and this value lies within the range of the
limits (critical region), then the null
hypothesis that the population mean (µ) =
42°12’14.6” is accepted at 5% level of
significance.
Test of the Variance of a
Probability Distribution
• Under the null hypothesis (σ2 = σ02),
the probability that the sample variance
(and therefore the population variance)
lies within the acceptable range is:
χ2 σ 2 χ2 σ 2 
P  a ,n −1 0 < S 2 < b,n −1 0  = b − a
 ( n − 1) (n − 1) 
3
Test of the Variance of a Test of the Variance of a
Probability Distribution Probability Distribution
• H0 is accepted if S2 lies between χ a ,n −1σ 0 f (s 2 )
2 2

χ 2
σ
and b ,n −1 0
2
( n − 1)
Reject H0 Accept H0 Reject H0
(n − 1)

• Otherwise, H0 is rejected

α α
2 2

 χ12−(α / 2), n-1  2

  σ 0
σ 02  χ (2α / 2), n-1  2
σ
s2
 n −1 
 n − 1  0
 

Test of the Variance of a

Probability Distribution
Example
• Again, if 1-α is the probability that H0 is An angle is measured 10 times. Each
accepted when it is true, therefore: measurement is independent and made
1-α = b-a with the same precision, i.e., the 10
measurements constitute a random
sample of size 10. The sample standard
• Given that a+b=1 (complementary deviation is calculated from the
percentiles), we can solve for the measurements as S=3.7”. Test at the
percentiles: 5% significance level the hypothesis
α α that the population standard deviation
a= b = 1− is 2.0”, against the alternative that σ is
2 2 not equal to 2.0”.

Solution Solution
For 5% level of significance, α = 0.05 The limits (critical values) are therefore,
α α χ 0.025,9
2
σ 02 (2.70)(2.0") 2
a= = 0.025 and b = 1− = 0.975 = = 1.2 (seconds of arc) 2
2 2 n −1 9
degrees of freedom = n − 1 = 10 − 1 = 9
χ 0.975,9
2
σ 02 (19.0)(2.0") 2
= = 8.44 (seconds of arc) 2
From the table, χ20.025,9 = 2.70 and χ20.975,9 = n −1 9
19.0 Given that the sample variance S2 =
(3.7)2 = 13.7 (seconds of arc)2 and this
value does not lie within the range of
the limits (critical region), then the null
hypothesis that the population
standard deviation (σ) = 2.0” is
rejected at 5% level of significance.