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Gabe Wigtil

6 June 2014

SOC 516 Final Project

Vacant residential housing rates in the United States have a number of important

implications for planners, policy makers, and the general public, especially in light of changing

patterns of human settlement within the nation and recent economic crises. Here, higher rates of

neighborhood level residential vacancy are hypothesized to be associated with higher rates of

neighborhood level unemployment. This hypothesis builds off of existing theory related to

housing vacancy. Additional, previously tested determinants of housing vacancy are also

analyzed on a nationwide scale. Several OLS models are fitted with the variables, and the

assumptions of OLS are examined in detail. Results indicate that the positive association exists

and is robust to a number of controls and tests.

Vacant residential housing presents a number of concerns for the neighborhoods in which

they are located. In cities, vacant housing is associated with the idea of blight and can lead to

increased crime, lower property values, and increased fire risk (Kraut 1999). Many local

governments are tackling the issue of vacant and abandoned residential housing head-on by

condemning, demolishing, or revitalizing vacant spaces (Cohen 2001). These vacant spaces are

representational of the inner city decay that has been challenging urban environments for

decades as populations migrate to suburbs and exurban areas. This issue has been additionally

compounded by the financial crises of the last decade. During and after the Great Recession,

cities like Detroit have captured the nations attention as shrinking cities, and also because of

shifting patterns of migration following deindustrialization. In fact, it has been suggested that

states like Michigan and Ohio have experienced especially unique changes in housing stock

(Goodman 2013). Outside of regional or spatial challenges to residential housing, the recent

2

economic crises have taken another toll on the way that populations interact with the housing

supply. It has been noted that as a result of the Great Recession, household formation has

declined dramatically (Dunne 2012). Notably, young adults are now living more frequently in

households headed by their parents. Those young adults that are choosing to create their own

households are typically entering the rental market more frequently and the home ownership

market less frequently.

For the purposes of this analysis, residential vacancies are units that are either listed for

sale or rent that have not yet been purchased or rented, sold or rented units that have not yet been

occupied, or those that have been abandoned (Goodman 2013). In the economics literature, it is

suggested that within localities, there may be natural vacancy rates, akin to natural

unemployment rates (Gabriel & Nothaft 1988, 2001). In their examination of rental markets

specifically, they argue that residential vacancy is determined by the incidence of vacancy (the

likelihood that any given property will become vacant) and the duration of vacancy (the length

that a vacant property remains in that state). They find that the proportion of the population that

is elderly, in poverty, and configurations of racial diversity are determinants of vacancy rates.

Dow (2005) examined the determinants of vacancy rates in Los Angeles neighborhoods.

Poverty, race, ethnicity, and the proportion of multiple family units are associated with

residential vacancies. Dow supports the inclusion of poverty, income, race, and education

variables in regression models estimating impacts on vacancy rates, but cautions that checks for

multicollinearity be conducted on the pairs of poverty/income and on Hispanic/education. Baxter

and Lauria (2000) examined how the racial composition of neighborhoods affected vacancy

rates. They note that increased foreclosure rates increase vacancy rates, and that changes in the

racial composition of a neighborhood and the loss of employment were precursors to increased

3

foreclosure rates. Thus, this paper seeks to examine how unemployment rates affect vacancy

rates, both on its own, and as a potential proxy for rates of foreclosures. Dow (2005) provides

many potential control variables for a close examination of vacancy rates. Baxter and Lauria

(2000) also suggest that racial demographics may interact with other economic variables such as

income.

Variables in this analysis are calculated from estimates taken from the 2006-2010

American Community Survey for all census block groups (N=220,334) (Appendix 1). The

American Community Survey (ACS) is the replacement for the long-form version of the decadal

US Census and is conducted on a continuous basis, thus providing more timely data albeit less

precise (MacDonald 2006). Margins of error are provided for ACS estimates and could be used

for conducting uncertainty analysis, but are not used in this analysis. Not all estimates are

provided for each census block group, thus the number of observations reported for each variable

is inconsistent. Table 1 presents summary statistics of the variables. Pairwise correlations

between the variables do not suggest any immediate concerns regarding multicollinearity (no

Table 1. Summary statistics.

michoh 220334 .0791662 .2699986 0 1

pered12les 219075 15.87862 13.75562 0 100

logmdhseval 213176 12.08548 .7583369 9.21024 13.81551

logmdgrent 190230 6.709981 .4425627 4.59512 7.601402

perrenter 218747 32.07616 25.74984 0 100

logpercap 219040 10.07861 .5123987 3.850147 12.76521

perpvty 218483 11.67829 14.2141 0 100

perhisp 219144 15.2349 23.47942 0 100

perasian 219144 4.080123 9.118214 0 100

perblack 219144 13.09015 23.41831 0 100

percvlun 218909 8.527372 7.656017 0 100

pervacant 218809 8.63804 8.915808 0 100

Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max

4

correlation coefficients are greater than an absolute value of .8 results not shown), though this

will be examined in more detail further on.

The variables were fitted using nested OLS regressions, with groups of theoretically

related control variables sequentially added to the base model (Table 2). OLS was chosen

because the dependent variable, percent unemployment, is expressed as a continuous variable

ranging between 0 and 100. All models have significant F-statistics (not shown). In all models,

all beta coefficients are significant at the 99% significance level or above, likely because of the

large number of observations in the dataset (Lin, Lucas, Jr., & Shmueli 2013). In model 1, a

univariate model, percent unemployment is used as the only determinant on percent vacant

housing. This model accounts for roughly 5% of the variation observed in the dependent

variable, percent vacant housing. In this model, the beta coefficient on percent unemployment is

.263, meaning that for a one percentage point increase in unemployment, a neighborhood would

experience a .263 percentage point increase in vacant housing.

Table 2. OLS regressions on percent of housing units within a neighborhood that are

vacant.

legend: * p<.1; ** p<.05; *** p<.01

bic 1561671.335 1545322.892 1530319.060 1277838.283 1277450.368 1277818.599

aic 1561650.744 1545271.414 1530236.707 1277726.878 1277318.708 1277697.066

r2_a 0.052 0.120 0.160 0.201 0.203 0.201

r2 0.052 0.120 0.160 0.201 0.203 0.202

N 218703 218703 218409 184923 184923 184926

_cons 6.375*** 6.099*** 31.855*** 26.809*** 20.981*** 22.611***

michoh 0.460*** 0.606***

pered12les 0.039*** 0.041***

logmdhseval -2.477*** -2.429*** -2.403***

logmdgrent -1.012*** -0.919*** -0.891***

perrenter 0.060*** 0.060*** 0.060***

blacklogpe~p -0.019*** -0.043*** -0.043*** -0.046***

logpercap -2.482*** 1.465*** 1.879*** 1.700***

perpvty 0.075*** 0.036*** 0.033*** 0.038***

perhisp 0.016*** -0.017*** 0.005*** -0.003*** -0.003***

perasian -0.066*** -0.042*** -0.009*** -0.011*** -0.011***

perblack 0.101*** 0.258*** 0.492*** 0.485*** 0.522***

percvlun 0.263*** 0.145*** 0.043*** 0.058*** 0.054***

Variable m1 m2 m3 m4 m5 m6

5

Given the theoretical discussion above, this model likely suffers from omitted variable

bias, thus additional models are fitted using the theoretically suggested control variables. This

suspicion is confirmed by examining the pairwise correlations between percent unemployment

and the other control variables, and by noting the significant beta coefficients on the control

variables in model 5. For example, given the positive correlation between percent unemployment

and percent black (Table 3) and the positive beta coefficient on percent black in the models in

which that variable is included, we can determine that the beta coefficient on percent

unemployed in model 1 is positively biased. A Ramsey

RESET test also confirms this suspicion with a p-value of

0.0000 that the model has no omitted variable.

With the addition of groups of control variables, the

beta coefficient on percent unemployment is attenuated. In

model 5, the beta coefficient on percent unemployment is

.054. The R-squared and adjusted R-squared values increase

with the inclusion of additional, theoretically suggested

control variables. Model 5 accounts for roughly 20% of the

variation observed in percent vacant housing. Other goodness

of fit measurements provide evidence for selecting model 5 as

the preferred model, including the AIC and BIC statistics, which are lowest for model 5 among

those fitted. Given the attenuation seen in the beta coefficient on percent unemployed, a question

may arise as to its true value and significance. To partially address this question, model 6 is fitted

without this dependent variable but with all of the other control variables. Here we see that all of

the remaining independent variables are biased in the expected direction as a result of the

Table 3. Pairwise

correlations between percent

unemployed and the control

variables.

All correlations are

significant at the 99%

significance level or above.

michoh 0.1047 0.0318 -0.0763 -0.1455 0.0221 -0.0447 -0.0503

pered12les 0.3370 0.2157 -0.0698 0.5559 0.5398 -0.6644 0.3478

logmdhseval -0.2496 -0.2235 0.3664 0.0121 -0.3876 0.6374 -0.0972

logmdgrent -0.1820 -0.0909 0.3121 0.0331 -0.3386 0.4793 -0.0686

perrenter 0.2653 0.3018 0.1084 0.2739 0.4910 -0.4183 1.0000

logpercap -0.4465 -0.3257 0.1610 -0.3699 -0.6639 1.0000

perpvty 0.4467 0.3490 -0.0841 0.3198 1.0000

perhisp 0.1425 -0.0853 0.0181 1.0000

perasian -0.0664 -0.0948 1.0000

perblack 0.3444 1.0000

percvlun 1.0000

percvlun perblack perasian perhisp perpvty logper~p perren~r

6

omission of the percent unemployed variable. Additionally, a Ramsey RESET test confirms that

model 6 likely suffers from omitted variable bias.

Even though model 5 is the best specified of the models presented, it also likely suffers

from omitted variable bias, as is confirmed once again by a Ramsey RESET test. Other likely

determinants of vacancy rates within neighborhoods include: age distribution (Dunne 2012;

Gabriel & Nothaft 2001); distribution of housing unit types (Dow 2005); and change in

population (Gabriel & Nothaft 1988). These variables are not included in the current dataset and

are thus not included in the regression models.

Given that our sample is in fact the population of all census block groups in the United

States, there exists the distinct possibility that significant outliers exists. Predicting Studentized

residuals and re-fitting model 5 with observations of large residuals removed provides us the

opportunity to examine the impact of these outliers on our results (Appendix 2). The trend

overall, with regard to beta coefficient magnitudes, is that these coefficients retain their size and

direction. Notably, the beta coefficient on the Michigan-Ohio dummy variable is attenuated, and

its significance reduced with the most aggressive exclusion of outliers. Goodness of fit

measurements demonstrate that this model may be a better choice, though at the expense of

nearly 5% of the observations. This analysis is informative, but the original model 5 will be used

for the remainder of the analyses.

Previous examination of all pairwise correlations between variables did not cause

immediate concern regarding imperfect multicollinearity. Model 5 (without the percent black/log

per capita income interaction terms) is tested for imperfect multicollinearity using variance

inflation factors. The highest variance inflation factor is calculated for the logged per capita

income term at 3.68. This is a somewhat high value, but not an indication of severe imperfect

7

multicollinearity. The variance inflation factor for our variable of interest, percent unemployed,

is 1.40, providing additional evidence that this variable is useful in explaining some of the

variation observed in the dependent variable. Heteroskedasticity is observed in model 5 when

examining a plot of the residuals against the fitted values. A White test confirms that

heteroskedasticity is present with a p-value of 0.000 that the model is homoskedastic. The beta

coefficients all remain significant at the 99% or greater level of significance with the use of

robust standard errors (results not shown), again likely because of the high number of

observations in the dataset.

Regarding the magnitude of our results, model 5 was fitted with all variables standardized

(results not shown). Percent black is the largest influencer of the dependent variable. For a one

standard deviation increase in the percentage of the population that is black (a roughly 23

percentage point increase) we would predict a 1.34 standard deviation increase in the percentage

of vacant housing units (1.34 standard deviations * (8.9 percentage points)/(1 standard deviation)

= approximately a 12 percentage point increase in vacant units). For our variable of interest, a

one standard deviation increase in the percent of the population that is unemployed (a 7.6

percentage point increase) is associated with a .05 standard deviation increase in the percentage

of vacant housing units (.05 standard deviations * (8.9 percentage points)/(1 standard deviation)

= .4 percentage point increase). Compared to other standardized beta coefficients, this is close in

magnitude, though opposite in sign, to the impact associated with the logged value of median

gross rent (standardized beta coefficient = -.047). As median gross rent is a theoretically

supported determinant of vacancy rates (Gabriel and Nothaft 1988), this comparison provides

additional evidence for including unemployment rates as a relevant determinant of vacancy.

8

Model 5 includes the interaction term blacklogpercap, which interacts the percent of the

population that is black with the logged value of per capita income (Baxter and Lauria 2000). For

purposes of graphical evaluation, a categorical variable (blackcat) representing percent of the

population that is black was generated (=1 if perblack={0,13.09}; =2 if perblack={13.09,36.51};

=3 if perblack={36.51,100}; these cutoff values [13.09 and 36.51] are the mean and one

standard deviation greater than the mean of the variable perblack). For values of logged per

capita income below its mean, there is a significant interaction between percent of the population

that is black, structured among the three aforementioned categories, and the logged value of per

capita income (Graph 1). This is confirmed by examining the significance of the interactive term

in the OLS regression.

Model 5 also include the dummy variable michoh, which indicates whether or not the

census block group is located in either the state of Michigan or Ohio. Goodman (2013) notes that

these two states may have experienced especially unique changes in housing stock. The beta

coefficient on this variable is

positive and significant. Thus,

on average, it can be stated that

census block groups in

Michigan and Ohio have

vacancy rates .46 percentage

points higher than census blocks

groups in all other locations.

This has implications for policy

makers working in these states

Graph 1. Interaction of percent of the population that is

black with logpercap

-20

0

20

40

60

f

o

r

p

e

r

v

a

c

a

n

t

4 6 8 10 12

logpercap

blackcat=1 blackcat=2

blackcat=3

blackcat

P

r

e

d

i

c

t

e

d

V

a

l

u

e

s

9

to address the unique concerns facing these states.

Much of the significance in model 5, and in fact all the others, can possibly be attributed

to the large number of observations in the dataset (Lin et al. 2013). Following a modified

approach to a solution they provide for more closely examining the significance of independent

values in large N datasets, random sample subsets of increasing size are drawn (using .sample)

from this dataset to test the fit of model 5 (though without the Michigan-Ohio dummy variable).

This allows us to examine the sensitivity of our beta coefficients to the size of the drawn sample,

and also helps examine issues of uncertainty. On the whole, the results regarding the beta

coefficient on percent unemployed appear somewhat robust to variations in sample size, though

there are concerns regarding the significance of this coefficient for samples that include ten

percent of the observations or less (N<19,000) (Graph 2). See Appendix 3 for beta coefficients

estimates for all other variables across sample sizes. Percent unemployment is also a consistently

significant determinant of vacancy rates, at least when compared to some of the other theorized

variables.

Results

indicate that rates

of unemployment

are a significant

determinant of

vacancy rates

within census

block groups. This

has implications

Graph 2. Beta coefficients and 95% confidence intervals on percent

unemployed for random sample sizes drawn from the observed

population

-0.25

-0.2

-0.15

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.1 1 10 100

b

e

t

a

c

o

e

f

f

i

c

i

e

n

t

sample size as a percentage of population size, on a logged scale

Estimate

Lower Bound

Upper Bound

10

for urban planners, policy makers, and the general public when considering the context in which

vacant and abandoned housing is generated. While there may indeed be natural rates of

residential vacancy (Gabriel and Nothaft 1988, 2001) as there are natural rates of unemployment,

social policies have been adopted to help address the issue of unemployment. Perhaps a fuller

understanding of the determinants of residential vacancy rates can help generate policies that will

address the complex social context in which these vacancies are occurring.

11

References

Baxter, V., & Lauria, M. (2000). Residential mortgage foreclosure and neighborhood change.

Housing Policy Debate, 11(3), 675699.

Cohen, J. R. (2001). Abandoned housing: Exploring lessons from baltimore. Housing Policy

Debate, 12(3), 415448.

Dow, J. P., Jr. (2005). Neighborhood Factors Affecting Apartment Vacancy Rates in Los

Angeles. Southwestern Economic Review, 32(1), 3544.

Dunne, T. (2012). Household Formation and the Great Recession. Federal Reserve Bank of

Cleveland, August. Retrieved from

https://www.clevelandfed.org/research/Commentary/2012/2012-12.pdf

Gabriel, Stuart A and Nothaft, Frank E. (2001). Rental Housing Markets, the Incidence and

Duration of Vacancy, and the Natural Vacancy Rate1. Journal of Urban Economics, 49,

121149.

Gabriel, Stuart A. and Nothaft, Frank E. (1988). Rental housing markers and the natural vacancy

rate. Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 16(4), 419

429.

Goodman, A. C. (2013). Is there an S in urban housing supply? or What on earth happened in

Detroit? Journal of Housing Economics, 22, 179191.

Kraut, D. T. (1999). Hanging out the No Vacancy Sign: Eliminating the Blight of Vacant

Buildings from Urban Areas. New York University Law Review, 74, 1139-1177.

Lin, M., Lucas, H. C., Jr, & Shmueli, G. (2013). Research Commentary-Too Big to Fail: Large

Samples and the p-Value Problem. Information Systems Research, 24(4), 906-917.

MacDonald, H. (2006). The American Community Survey: Warmer (More Current), but Fuzzier

(Less Precise) than the Decennial Census. Journal of the American Planning Association,

72(4), 491503.

12

Appendix 1. Variables.

Variable Name Description Calculation

pervacant Percent of housing units that

are vacant

100*(vacant housing units

[excludes seasonal housing units

and migrant worker housing

units])/(housing units)

percvlun Percent of the civilian work

force than is unemployed

100*(unemployed civilian work

force)/(total civilian work

force)

perblack Percent of the population

that for race identifies as

black or African American

alone

100*(race black or African

American alone)/(total

population)

perasian

Percent of the population

that for race identifies as

Asian, Native Hawaiian, or

Other Pacific Islander alone

100*(race Asian, Native Hawaiian,

or Other Pacific Islander

alone)/(total population)

perhisp Percent of the population

that for ethnicity identifies

as Hispanic or Latino

100*(Hispanic or Latino)/(total

population)

perpovty Percent of the population for

whom poverty status is

defined, with an income in

the past 12 months below

poverty level

100*(income in the past 12 months

below poverty level)/(total

population for whom poverty

status is determined)

logpercap Logged value of per capita

income in the past 12 months

ln(per capita income)

perrenter Percent of the total

population that are occupying

housing units that are

renters.

100*(renter occupied

population)/(total population in

occupied housing units)

lnmdgrent Logged value of the median

gross rent

ln(median gross rent, renter-

occupied housing units paying

cash rent)

lnmdhseval Logged value of the median

house value

ln(median value, owner-occupied

housing units)

pered12les Percent of the population 25

years of age or older with

less than 12 years of

education

100*(those over 25 years of age

with education less than 12

years)/(total population, those

over 25 years of age)

michoh Dummy variable indicating

whether or not the census

block group is located in

either the state of Michigan

or Ohio

Census block groups with a

Federal Information Processing

Standard state code of either a

26 or 39 = 1 ; all else = 0

13

Appendix 2. Jack-knife analysis.

legend: * p<.1; ** p<.05; *** p<.01

bic 1277450.368 1257508.468 1226561.356 1137079.545

aic 1277318.708 1257376.853 1226429.854 1136948.508

r2_a 0.203 0.203 0.202 0.229

r2 0.203 0.203 0.202 0.229

N 184923 184288 182702 176266

_cons 20.981*** 21.166*** 20.758*** 18.082***

michoh 0.460*** 0.368*** 0.226*** 0.105*

pered12les 0.039*** 0.040*** 0.039*** 0.037***

logmdhseval -2.429*** -2.362*** -2.275*** -2.187***

logmdgrent -0.919*** -0.929*** -0.939*** -0.951***

perrenter 0.060*** 0.058*** 0.055*** 0.050***

blacklogpe~p -0.043*** -0.038*** -0.034*** -0.040***

logpercap 1.879*** 1.793*** 1.733*** 1.869***

perpvty 0.033*** 0.033*** 0.034*** 0.041***

perhisp -0.003*** -0.004*** -0.004*** -0.005***

perasian -0.011*** -0.013*** -0.012*** -0.010***

perblack 0.485*** 0.436*** 0.387*** 0.453***

percvlun 0.054*** 0.050*** 0.047*** 0.048***

Variable m5 exr4 exr3 exr2

14

Appendix 3. Coefficient, p-value, sample size chart.

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