Which Republican Groups Endorsed Best?

Brandon Rottinghaus
University of Houston

With the 2014 primaries and runoffs in the books, the refrain nationally and
internationally is that the Tea Party ran the table in Texas. The New York Times
reported that the Tea Party Holds Sway, the Wall Street Journal wrote that the election
showed the Tea Partys Muscle, while the Daily Mail in the United Kingdom proclaimed
a Tea Party Takeover.

Does the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party control the Republican nomination
politics in Texas? Texas is undoubtedly conservative but there is variation in which
groups have the most sway. One way to look at which groups are most influential is to
examine the successful percentage of endorsed candidates in the primary and runoffs.
An endorsement from a political group signals to voters that the endorsed candidates
views are seminal to those of the organization and gives us a window into their
influence on the Republican electorate.

In analysis conducted (and displayed below), Republican groups fared differently in their
endorsement success. Taken from the website of each organization, the average is
calculated as the total number of successful (winning) candidates divided by the total
number of endorsements. Only Texas candidates, statewide or regional, were included
(although some groups endorsed candidates in other states). For instance, this
includes State Board of Education candidates and regional or statewide court
candidates (Texas Supreme Court, District Courts, Court of Appeals, Court of Criminal
Appeals) but excludes local judicial candidates. Groups did not often separately
endorse a set of candidates in the runoffs, so those endorsed in the primary were taken
as the denominator in those cases. If a group endorsed a different candidate in the
runoff than the primary, the newer endorsee replaced the older endorsee in the
analysis.

Group Primary Average Runoff Average
911 Tea Party 100% 67%
Empower Texans / Quinn Sullivan 98% 54%
Texas Right to Life 90% 47%
Texas Home School Coalition 85% 33%
Young Conservatives of Texas 80% 50%
Texas Conservative View PAC 73% 71%
Texas Eagle Forum / Cathie Adams 58% 50%
Conservative Republicans of Texas / Steve Hotze No Endorsements 88%*
* Just Harris County.

In the primary, most groups or individuals successfully endorsed winners. This was
driven by endorsements of the defacto statewide conservative slate in both the
primary and runoff: Dan Patrick, Ken Paxton, Sid Miller and Glenn Hager. The only
consistent miss from this grouping was Ryan Sittons surprise win over Wayne Christian
in the race for Railroad Commissioner, Christian, by many accounts, the more
conservative of the two.

Texas Conservative View PAC and the 911 Tea Party were both at the top of the list of
successful endorsees, although both groups kept their total number of endorsements
low. Although they were generally influential, Texas Conservative View PAC endorsed
Mary Huls in State House District 129 and she ended up with only 10% in the primary.
Some groups, such as the Young Conservatives of Texas and Empower Texans, were
effective in the primary (endorsing the winning candidate from 80 to 90% of the time)
but were less successful in the runoff.

On the other hand, some endorsers fared poorly. For instance, Cathie Adams, the
president of the Texas Eagle Forum, personally endorsed runoff losers T.J. Fabby, Ted
Seago, Karen Harris, Henry Teich, Danny Pelto, Cullen Crisp and Read King (among
others) for in Texas House, all of whom had low vote totals in the primary and did not
make the runoffs. In particular, many of the endorsed legislative candidates failed. For
instance, the Texas Home School Coalition endorsed Ralph Hall, Francisco Canseco
and Ben Streusand for the U.S. House of Representatives in the runoff races, all of
whom lost. They also endorsed T.J. Fabby, Ted Seago, Rob Henneke, Philip Elby,
Stefani Carter, Sheryl Berg for runoffs in Texas House, many of whom had low vote
totals in the primary and all of whom lost in the runoffs.

The most broadly conservative (religiously-oriented and Tea Party based) groups
appear to have the most sway with Republican voters, endorsing the highest
percentage of winning candidates. Groups with a more narrow political interest, such as
Empower Texans, the Texas Home School Coalition, Texas Right to Life, had less
influence in the races, especially in the runoffs, than most groups. Conservative, Tea
Party-backed groups held considerable importance for Republican primary voters in
2014, but that influence is not absolute. Idiosyncratic and local issues often weighed as
heavily on the minds of voters than endorsements, even in the low turnout elections.