Few pieces of contemporary legislation have received as much attention as the Affordable Care Act. This document makes it possible to examine nine major pollsters trends on the bill and the law. For each pollster, opinions on the law have fluctuated in a narrow range, but they have usually been more negative than positive. Polling activity on the ACA has cooled considerably in recent months.
Views on President Obamas handling of health care are more negative than positive in recent polls. Democrats have lost considerable ground on whether they or Republicans in Congress would better handle the issue, though Democrats ratings on health care still tend to be better than those of their GOP counterparts.
The economy and jobs are still the top issues to Americans in most polls, but health care often ranks close behind. In the most recent polls, more people think the country will be worse off than better off under the ACA. Kaiser and Gallups most recent polls show that around two and ten think they and their families will be better off under the ACA. A plurality in Gallups poll (39 percent) and a majority in Kaisers (53 percent) say it wont make much difference. Twenty six percent in Kaisers June poll say they will be worse off; 36 percent give a similar response in Gallups May 2014.
As for what to do with the law now, in May 2014, 34 percent in a Kaiser poll wanted to repeal it, while 59 percent wanted to keep and improve it.
Full wordings of the long trend questions at the beginning of the document begin on page 15.
AEI Special Poll Report: Health Care and the Affordable Care Act (July 2014) 2 | P a g e
Q: Do you think you and your family will be better off or worse under the new health care reform law, or dont you think it will make much difference? (Kaiser Family Foundation)
Q: From what you've heard or read, do you think the 2010 health care law will mostly help you personally, will mostly hurt you personally, or don't you think it will have much of an effect on you personally?
Help Hurt Not have much effect Mar. 2010 CBS 20% 35% 38% Apr. 2010 CBS 17 36 39 May 2010 CBS 16 36 41 Jul. 2010 CBS 13 33 48 Jan. 2011 CBS 18 30 47 Dec. 2011 CBS 13 32 46 9 | P a g e
Mar. 2012 CBS 19 31 43 Jul. 2013 CBS 13 38 43 Sep. 2013 CBS 18 39 40 Nov. 2013 CBS 15 39 43 Dec. 2013 CBS 16 34 46
Q: In the long run, how do you think the healthcare law will affect your familys healthcare situation? Will it make things better, not make much difference, or make things worse?
Make Not make Make better much difference worse Feb. 2012* Gallup 24% 34% 38% Jun. 2013 Gallup 22 33 42 Aug. 2013 Gallup 24 34 38 Oct. 2013 Gallup 25 36 34 Nov. 2013 Gallup 20 34 41 Jan. 2014 Gallup 22 35 37 Feb. 2014 Gallup 24 34 37 Mar. 2014 Gallup 21 36 40 Apr. 2014 Gallup 24 42 32 May 2014 Gallup 22 39 36 Note: * Question wording included Now suppose all of the provisions of the healthcare law go into effect in the next few years.
Will the Country Be Better Off?
Q: Do you think the country as a whole will be better off or worse under the new health care reform law, or dont you think it will make much difference? (Kaiser Family Foundation)
Better Worse No diff Better Worse No diff Better Worse No diff Feb. 2009 59% 12% 19% Apr. 2009 56 15 21 Jun. 2009 57 16 19 Jul. 2009 51 23 16 Aug. 2009 45 34 14 Sep. 2009 53 26 14 Oct. 2009 53 28 12 Nov. 2009 54 27 11 Dec. 2009 45 31 17 Jan. 2010 42 37 12 Feb. 2010 45 34 12 Mar. 2010 45 34 14 10 | P a g e
Q: In the long run, how do you think the healthcare law will affect the healthcare situation in the U.S. will it make things better, not make much difference, or will it make things worse?
----How law will affect the healthcare situation in U.S---- Not make much Make better difference Make worse Jun. 2013 Gallup 34% 16% 47% Aug. 2013 Gallup 35 15 44 Oct. 2013 Gallup 36 14 44 Nov. 2013 Gallup 34 12 48 Jan. 2014 Gallup 35 12 48 Feb. 2014 Gallup 35 14 45 Mar. 2014 Gallup 37 15 45
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Will the Uninsured Be Better Off?
Q: Do you think the uninsured will be better off or worse under the new health care reform law, or dont you think it will make much difference? (Kaiser Family Foundation)
Better Worse off No diff Better Worse off No diff Better Worse off No diff Apr. 2010 67% 15% 10% Sep. 2010 57 50 15 May 2011 55 25 15 Aug. 2011 49 20 22 Nov. 2011 51 23 17 Jan. 2012 53 25 14 Mar. 2012 51 24 16 Jul. 2012 47 29 16 Jun. 2013 48 30 14
Note: Jan. 2014 question wording was Do you think the uninsured are better off or worse under the new health care reform law, or has it not made much difference?
Repeal, Replace?
Q: What would you like to see Congress do when it comes to the health care law? They should expand the law. They should keep the law as is. They should repeal the law and replace it with a Republican-sponsored alternative. They should repeal the law and not replace it. (Kaiser Family Foundation)
Keep Replace w/ Repeal & Keep Replace w/ Repeal & Expand as is GOP alt not replace Unsure Expand as is GOP alt not replace Unsure Jan. 2011 28% 19% 23% 20% 10% Feb. 2011 30 20 19 20 10 Mar. 2011 30 21 18 21 10 Apr. 2011 33 19 15 20 14 May 2011 30 21 19 19 10 Jun. 2011 31 20 19 19 12 Jul. 2011 33 20 16 21 10 Sep. 2011 33 19 16 21 12 Nov. 2011 32 18 15 24 11 Dec. 2011 30 20 16 22 11 Jan. 2012 31 19 18 22 11 Feb. 2012 35 19 18 19 9 Mar. 2012 28 19 18 23 12 May 2012 27 20 18 21 13 12 | P a g e
Q: What would you like to see Congress do when it comes to the (2010) health care law?...They should keep the law as it is, they should keep the law in place and work to improve it, they should repeal the law and replace it with a Republican-sponsored alternative, they should repeal the law and not replace it (Kaiser Family Foundation)
Keep Keep law Replace w/ Repeal& None/Something as is & improve GOP alt not replace else (vol) Unsure Feb. 2014 8% 48% 12% 19% 5% 7% Mar 2014 10 49 11 18 6 5
Q: Which would you rather see your representative in Congress do when it comes to the (2010) health care law?...They should work to improve the law, they should work to repeal the law and replace it with something else? (Kaiser Family Foundation)
Work to Repeal Neither/something Dont know/ improve replace with else (vol) Refused the law something else Apr. 2014 58% 35% 3% 4% May 2014 59 34 3 4
Q: Do you think Congress should try to repeal the new health care law, or should they let it stand?
Repeal Let it stand Repeal Let it stand Jan. 2011 Quinnipiac 48% 43% Apr. 2011 Quinnipiac 44 45 Nov. 2011 Quinnipiac 47 41 Feb. 2012 Quinnipiac 52% 39% Apr. 2012 Quinnipiac 51 38 Jul. 2012 Quinnipiac 49 43 Note: Asked of registered voters.
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Q: Which one of the following comes closest to what you would like to see lawmakers do with the new health care law? Would you like lawmakers to repeal the law entirely, repeal parts of the law, expand the law, or leave it as is?
Leave as is Expand it Repeal parts Repeal entirely Oct. 2010 Fox 15% 20% 29% 29% Dec. 2010 Fox 16 15 32 27 Jan. 2011 Fox 14 20 34 27 Apr. 2011 Fox 16 18 29 31 Mar. 2012 Fox 14 22 28 31 Jul. 2012 Fox 22 18 28 29 Oct. 2012 Fox 22 17 26 28 Mar. 2013 Fox 20 20 25 30 Jun. 2013 Fox 19 17 19 39 Oct. 2013 Fox 26 15 24 30 Note: Asked of registered voters.
Q: What, if anything, do you think Congress should do with the health care law?
Expand it Leave it as is Repeal it Nov. 2010 Pew 30% 22% 40% Jan. 2011 Pew 35 20 37 Oct. 2011 Pew 31 22 38 Mar. 2012 Pew 33 20 38
Q: And, would you favor or oppose repealing and eliminating this health care law?
Strongly Not so strongly Not so strongly Strongly oppose favor repeal favor repeal oppose repeal oppose repeal Jan. 2011 NBC/WSJ 35% 10% 12% 34% Dec. 2011 NBC/WSJ 36 10 15 25 Apr. 2012 NBC/WSJ 40 9 12 30
Note: Question wording for January and December 2011 read . . . this new health care law . . ..
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Q: What would you like to see Congress do when it comes to the 2010 health care law? Expand the health care law. Keep the entire health care law as it is. Repeal the part of the law that requires Americans to obtain health insurance if they don't have it, but keep the rest of the law intact. Repeal the entire health care law. Expand Keep entire Repeal Repeal the the law law in place the mandate entire law Jul. 2012 CBS/NYT 17% 15% 27% 34% Sep. 2012 CBS/NYT 22 15 26 30 Oct. 2012 CBS/NYT 22 21 19 29 Jul. 2013 CBS/NYT 20 16 18 39
Defunding
Q: Some lawmakers who oppose the health care law say that if Congress isn't able to repeal the law, they should try to stop it from being put into place by cutting off funding to implement it. Whether or not you like the health care law, would you say you approve or disapprove of cutting off funding as a way to stop some or all of the law from being put into place?
Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Jan. 2011 Kaiser 33% 62% Feb. 2011 Kaiser 34 61 Mar. 2011 Kaiser 30 64 Apr. 2011 Kaiser 30 64 May 2011 Kaiser 33 63 May 2012 Kaiser 32% 58% Jul. 2012 Kaiser 35 56 Apr. 2013 Kaiser 31 58 Aug. 2013 Kaiser 36 57 Sep. 2013 Kaiser 37 56
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Views on the legislation/law Full question wordings
Q: Overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the proposed changes to the health care system being developed by Congress and the Obama administration? (ABC/Washington Post) Beginning in March 2010, ABC/WP question wording read Given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the changes to the health care system that have been enacted by Congress and the Obama administration? Beginning in March 2012, question wording read Overall, do you support or oppose the federal law making changes to the health care system?
Q: As of right now, do you generally favor or generally oppose the health care proposals being discussed in Congress? (Pew) Starting in April 2010, the question wording changed to ask Do you approve or disapprove of the health care legislation passed by Barack Obama and Congress last month? In July, August, and September 2010, the question asked about legislation passed in March. In November, the question read earlier this year. In January 2011, the question asked about legislation passed last year. The March 2012 question asked people whether they approved or disapproved of the health care legislation passed in 2010.
Q: From what you have read or heard, do you mostly approve or mostly disapprove of the proposed changes to the health care system under consideration in Congress? (CBS/NYT) In November 2009, question wording read mostly approve or mostly disapprove of the proposed changes to the health care system under consideration in Congress. For March 2010, question asked about the current health care reform bill. After March 2010, question read: From what you've heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of the new health care reform bill?
Q: Wording in Nov. 2012 was Do you generally approve or disapprove of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, also known as Obama- care, that restructured the U.S. health care system? Wording in Jun. 2013 and later was Do you generally approve or disapprove of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, signed into law by President Obama that restructured the U.S. health care system? (Gallup)
Q: As you may know, the U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a bill that would make major changes in the countrys health care system. Based on what you have read or heard about that legislation, do you generally favor it or generally oppose it? (CNN/ORC) Question wording for January 2010 was As you may know, the US Senate and US House of Representatives recently passed bills that would make major changes in the countrys health care system. Based on what you have read or heard about those bills, do you generally favor them or generally oppose them? May 2010 question wording was Do you approve or disapprove of the passage of the health care bill which became law in April? Favor is equated with approve and oppose is equated with disapprove. The March, August, and October 2010 and June 2011 question read As you may know, a bill that makes major changes to the countrys health care system became law earlier this year. Based on what you have read or heard about that legislation, do you generally favor or generally oppose it? In 2012, question wording changed to As you may know, a bill that makes major changes to the country's health care system became law in 2010 . . . ? 16 | P a g e
Q: Based on what you know about the health care reform legislation being considered right now, do you favor or oppose the plan? (Fox) Question wording for April 2010 read Based on what you know, do you favor or oppose the new health care law?. Question wording for April 2012 and January 2014 reads Do you favor or oppose the new national health care law that was passed by Congress and signed into law by President Obama in 2010?
Q: In general, do you support, oppose or neither support nor oppose the health care reform plans being discussed in Congress? (AP- GfK/Roper) Question wording after April 2010 reads: In general, do you support, oppose or neither support nor oppose the health care reforms that were passed by Congress in March?
Q: President Obama did sign a health reform bill into law last month given what you know about the new health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it? (Kaiser) Question wording after April 2010 reads As you may know, a new health reform bill was signed into law earlier this year. Given what you know about the new health reform law, do you have a generally favorable or generally unfavorable opinion of it?
Q: From what you have heard about Barack Obama's health care plan that was passed by Congress and signed into law by the President in 2010, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea? If you do not have an opinion either way, please just say so. (NBC/WSJ ) Question wording for May and June 2010 was "From what you have heard about Barack Obama's health care plan that was recently passed by Congress and signed into law by the President, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea? If you do not have an opinion either way, please just say so. Question wording for March 2010 and earlier was From what you have heard about Barack Obama's health care plan, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea? If you do not have an opinion either way, please just say so.
How is President Obama Handling Health Care? Full question wordings
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care policy? (Gallup, Pew, CNN/ORC)
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling health care? In January of 2014 the wording changed to Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling implementation of the new (2010) health care law? (ABC/Washington Post)
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care? (Quinnipiac, CBS/New York Times)
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues . . . health care? (Fox) 17 | P a g e
Q: If you had to choose, do you lean more toward approving or disapproving of the way Barack Obama is handling health care? (AP/GfK-Roper)
Q: Below are some issues facing the country. For each one, indicate whether you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling that issue health care. (Economist/YouGov). The Economist/YouGov poll is an internet poll. The February 2010 poll was asked immediately after the congressional health care vote.
Democrats and Republicans on Health Care Full question wordings
Q: Who do you trust to do a better job of handling health care, the Democrats or the Republicans? In December 2013 the question wording changed to Which party do you trust to do a better job of handling health care?...The Democratic Party, the Republican Party, both equally, neither? (AP-GfK/Roper)
Q: Overall, which party, the Democrats or the Republicans, do you trust to do a better job handling health care reform going forward? (Kaiser)
Q: Which political party, the Democrats or the Republicans, do you trust to do a better job handling health care? (ABC/Washington Post)
Q: Do you think the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress would do a better job of dealing with each of the following issues and problems . . .Health care? (CNN/ORC)
Q: Regardless of how you usually vote, do you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party is more likely to improve the health care system? (CBS/New York Times)
Q: Which political partythe Democrats or the Republicansdo you think would do a better job on each of the following issues Health Care? (Fox)
Q: Please tell me if you think the Republican Party or the Democratic Party could do a better job in each of the following areas . . . Which party could do a better job of dealing with health care? (Pew Research Center)
Q: When it comes to dealing with health care which party do you think would do a better job the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or both about the same? (NBC/Wall Street J ournal). Note: *Question wording Who do you trust more to handle major 18 | P a g e
changes in the countrys health care systemthe Democrats in Congress or the Republicans in Congress? **Question wording Which party could do a better job of reforming the US health care system?
Will you/the country be better off? Full question wordings
For February 2009 through March 2010, Kaiser Family Foundation wording was Do you think (you/the country) would be better off or worse off if the president and Congress passed health care reform, or dont you think it would make much difference?