United Nations

Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

CIAM
Climate Impacts Assessment Model
User's Manual
ECLAC-CIAM (Climate Impacts Assessment Model) is a quantitative simulation tool, designed to provide
numerical estimates of economic effects of climate change, with a special focus on the Cariean!
"he model is structured in three modules, operating sequentiall#$ (%) a Generator module, producing input
parameters for the susequent C&E (Computale &eneral Equilirium) model, (') a core global CGE model,
which is used to conduct comparative statics simulation e(ercises, ()) a Downscaler module, used to estimate *e#
macroeconomic indicators (e!g!, real income variations) at a level of geographical detail finer than the one allowed
# the C&E model!
"he &enerator and +ownscaler modules are implemented as Calc spreadsheets! Calc is one component (similar to
Microsoft E(cel) of the Lire,ffice-,pen,ffice suite (analogous of Microsoft ,ffice), which is an open source,
free software, downloadale at http$--lireoffice!org, or http$--openoffice!org! A version of this software suite for
.indows operating s#stems (/0, 1ista, 2) is needed to conduct simulations with ECLAC-CIAM!
"he core C&E model is ased on the standard &"A0 model, descried in 3ertel and "sigas (%442)! 0arameters of
this model are calirated on the asis of a special aggregation of the &"A05 data ase, distriuted as part of the
ECLAC-CIAM pac*age! A specific software, named 6un&"A0, is necessar# to run the C&E model! 6un&"A0,
which is derived from the &EM0AC7 software, is freel# availale for download at
https$--www!gtap!agecon!purdue!edu-products-rungtap-default!asp! Installation of 6un&"A0 is a prerequisite for
handling ECLAC-CIAM!
2.1 The Generator Module
"he &enerator module is a special Calc spreadsheet, intended to generate a numer of instructions for the C&E
model! "hese instructions refer to a specific climate scenario, chosen # the user and associated with a variation in
gloal surface temperature! "here are two alternative methods for selecting the reference climate scenario, in the
89hoc*s: sheet! "he user can (%) either insert directl# the temperature change (into the #ellow colored cell under
the heading 8+EL"A "emp!: or # running a macro), or (') let the software compute the change in temperature
associated with a specif#ing a 96E9 scenario (A' ;rapid economic growth, regional differences<, A%= ;rapid
growth, regional convergence, alanced energ# sources< or =% ;regional convergence, reductions in material
intensit#<) and a #ear! In the latter case the corresponding variation in temperature is found # the spreadsheet
through a macro!
"he effects of climate change in various sectors (Agriculture, 9ea Level 6ise, .ater Availailit#, "ourism
6evenue, Energ# +emand, 3uman 3ealth, ,n the >o 0roductivit#) are simultaneousl# computed, and also
translated into variations of parameters of the C&E model! "he following shoc*s are ta*en into account$
changes in land productivit# (due to agriculture, water, and sea level rise impacts)
changes in capital productivit# (sea level rise)
changes in laour productivit# (human health and on the >o productivit#)
shifts in demand for mar*et services (tourism)
shifts in demand for energ# (energ# demand)
All shoc*s are ased on parameter estimates otained from previous studies, which can e found in the 80aram:
sheet! 1alues in this sheet can e freel# changed and the input instructions for the C&E model will then var#
accordingl#!
i
=# clic*ing on a lue square icon on the left side of the rion, a small program (macro) is launched! "his macro
sets, through an interactive dialogue, the reference change in average surface temperature, either directl# or
though a comination of 96E9 scenario and #ear! "he &enerator spreadsheet then computes, on the asis of the
change in temperature, all the corresponding impact shoc*s for the C&E model, as cells appearing in an area of
the 89hoc*s: sheet! "his information can then e e(ported to the C&E model! "his is done # simpl# clic*ing on
the small green cue icon, appearing on the 8rion: on top of the windows! A second program (macro) will then
e launched! "his macro as*s for a filename, identif#ing the simulation e(periment! "he name should e no longer
that eight characters, or otherwise onl# the first eight characters will e considered! A te(t file with the 8!e(p:
suffi( will then e created and put in the same sudirector# where all the ECLAC-CIAM data are stored for
simulation with 6un&"A0!
ii

9ince the 8!e(p: file is an ordinar# te(t file, it can e edited with an# word processor efore use with 6un&"A0!
"he Appendi( provides an annotated e(ample, showing the content of a file of this t#pe!
2.2 The CGE Core Model
"he C&E model is calirated on the asis of the 9ocial Accounting Matri( provided # the latest release of the
&"A0 dataase (ver! 5, #ear '??2)!
iii

"he following regions and industries are considered in the aggregation developed for the ECLAC-CIAM model$
Regions
@orth America
Central America
=eliAe
Cariean
&u#ana and 9uriname
9outh America
Europe
Africa
Asia
,ceania
Industries
Agriculture
Energ#
Light Manufacturing
3eav# Manufacturing
Mar*et 9ervices
@on-mar*et 9ervices
"he dataase is used to calirate a gloal Computale &eneral Equilirium model, which is the standard C&E
model descried in 3ertel and "sigas (%442)! .ithout the need of changing equations in the model, it is possile
to conduct simulation e(periments using the free software 6un&"A0, which is a reduced version of the
&EM0AC7 pac*age!
After launching the 6un&"A0 program, the following menu structure will appear on the screen$
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
File Copy View Version Tools Help
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Title RunGTAP Version Closure Shocks Solve Results
6un&"A0 uses a taed noteoo* or card inde( interface! "he first ' pages ("itle and 6un&"A0) contain general
information! "he )rd page contains information aout the current version$ the particular data aggregation of &"A0
the program is using (in this case, the one created for ECLAC-CIAM)! "he remaining B pages relate to
simulations!
Clic* on$
Version | Change
in 6un&"A0Cs main menu! ;"hat is, first clic* on Version in the main menu (not on the 1ersion page of
6un&"A0) and then, in the drop-down menu that appears, clic* on Change.< 9elect ECLAC072! "his
corresponds to a sudirector# in the 6un&"A0 general director#, containing all the necessar# data for simulations
with ECLAC-CIAM, including the e(periment files 8!e(p: created # the &enerator module!
=efore running the model, it is possile to inspect the model structure and data used, # clic*ing on the 81iew:
ta and selecting the appropriate menu item!
iv

A simulation e(periment is performed #$ (a) specif#ing the partition etween e(ogenous and endogenous
variales in the model and () selecting a numer of e(ogenous variales to 8shoc*:! "he model closure and the
shoc*s ma# e entered manuall# # editing the 89hoc*s: page in 6un&"A0! Alternativel#, and this is more
important here, the whole e(periment description can e otained through an e(ternal file, which is the
e(periment file created # the &enerator module!
"o load the e(periment file, go to the 9olve ta and clic* on 8Load E(periment:! 9elect the same name that was
chosen when the macro in the &enerator spreadsheet was run! "his will put all the necessar# information in the
Closure and 9hoc*s pages, which nonetheless can still e edited and modified, if necessar#, efore running the
model!
If ever#thing goes fine, clic* on 89olve Model:! "his will start a numer of mathematical routines! It is possile to
see the progress of the solution algorithm, and after successful completion a report on the level of accurac#
reached in the model solution is provided! All results will then e availale in the 6esults page! It is also possile
to chec* the model results outside 6un&"A0, using the program 1iew9,L to anal#Ae the output contained in a
file having the same name as the e(periment file, ut with suffi( 8!slB:! "he latter can e found in the sudirector#
9ave9ims!
Clic* on the 6esults ta of 6un&"A0! Dou will see the Contents page listing man# of the variales of the model!
"o see the results of one of these variales listed # name, >ust doule-clic* on the corresponding row in the
Contents list! In the 89im: window #ou will then see the percentage change for this variale, as computed in the
model solution! In some cases, there will also e 80re: and 80ost: options, showing levels for the variale efore
and after appl#ing the shoc*s! "o see other variales in the list, >ust clic* on Contents again, to get ac* to the
initial list of variales! It is possile to e(port results # clic*ing on 8Cop#: when the model output for a specific
variale is displa#ed! "his will then cop# the content of the window in the computer Clipoard! In the +ownscaler
module, for e(ample, it will e necessar# to e(port some results # pasting the model output for some variales
inside another Calc spreadsheet!
2.3 The Downscaler Module
"he +ownscaler module, which is implemented as a second Calc spreadsheet, is used to get appro(imations for
some macroeconomic variales at the su-regional level in the Cariean area!
At present, the +ownscaler spreadsheet allows the decomposition of the &"A0 macroeconomic variale 8#ev:,
which is a measure of real national income, for the following 9tates$
v
Antigua and =aruda
=arados
=ermuda
Cariean small states
Cua
+ominica
+ominican 6epulic
&renada
Eamaica
9t! 7itts and @evis
9t! Lucia
9t! 1incent and the &renadines
"rinidad and "oago
"o get national estimates, some results of the C&E simulations must e e(ported to the +owscaler spreadsheet!
After simulating with 6un&"A0, go to the 6esults page and loo* for the variales pva, qva, and #ev! For each
variale, cop# the results into the computer clipoard using the Cop# command in the menu! "hen, paste the
content of the clipoard in the appropriate area in the 9im6es sheet (+ownscaler)! "his can e easil# found #
loo*ing for statements li*e 80aste variale / down here:! "he pointer should e set on the cell with the variale
name!
After pasting results for all three variale, the spreadsheet computes the estimates for #ev variales at the national
level, which can e found in the +9cale sheet! An e(ample of output is displa#ed in Figure % here elow!
Figure % G E(ample of output from the +owscaler module
Use of !btotals
In &EM0AC7 >argon, sutotals refers to the contriution made # one shoc* or group of shoc*s to the total
changes caused # all the shoc*s! Consider the set of shoc*s as illustrated in the Appendi(! 9uppose #ou want to
consider the contriution of impacts on tourism demand (which is the strongest effect for the Cariean) on the
overall result! "he tourism impacts are introduced as demand shifts for mar*et services (M9ervices), which are
e(pressed # statements li*e$
Shock tradslack("MServices","Caribbean") = -3.34;
"hen, if #ou add the following line to the memo on the shoc*s page$
Subtotal tradslack("MServices", R!) = "ouris# i#$act;
6un&"A0 would calculate the contriutions of these demand shifts to the total simulation results! "he +efine
9utotals utton on the 9hoc*s page help #ou compose these statements! After #ou specif# shoc*s, #ou can as* for
various sutotals to e calculated # clic*ing on the +efine 9utotal utton, and #ou specif# the shoc*s relevant to
each sutotal via the 9pecif# 9utotals form! "he sutotals results are shown in separate columns in the results
pages, after the simulation result and an# levels results!
"reatment of Uncertainties
Hncertaint# aout model inputs can e e(pressed through proailistic distriutions for the parameters values, and
it can e assessed through the ver# sophisticated tool for 9#stematic 9ensitivit# Anal#sis, uilt into the 6un&"A0
software!
vi
"o start the 99A tool in 6un&"A0, select 89#stematic 9ensitivit# Anal#sis: in the menu! An input
form will e presented! At the top is a drop-down list which shows the parameters #ou can var#, or is a list of
e(ogenous variales whose shoc*s #ou can var#! In ECLAC-CIAM, we ma# e interested in changing shoc*s
values! If shoc*s were generated # the &enerator module (see Appendi(), we would find onl# two variales here$
afeall (productivit# parameter for primar# factors) and tradslac* (slac* variale in the mar*et clearing condition)!
After selecting one of these variales, #ou see the sets over which its arguments range! Dou can then select the
whole set, a suset or a single element for each argument! For e(ample, we ma# want to var# the afeall shoc* onl#
for 8Land:, for all industries (whole 06,+IC,MM set), onl# in the 8Cariean: region!
=elow each set or element for each argument is a small o(! If #ou clic* on this, it will ecome chec*ed! "his
determines whether or not the relevant parts of the parameter or shoc*s var# independentl# or together! 9uppose
that, in addition to changing land productivit# in the Cariean, we are considering changes in land productivit#
in =eliAe and 9uriname-&u#ana (9ur-&u#)! Letting the shoc*s var# independentl# means assuming that an#
deviation around the mean in, sa#, Cariean would not e associated with deviations in the other two regions! In
the conte(t of climate change impacts, factors affecting one parameter in a region are li*el# to affect other
parameters in other regions, though! "herefore, it ma# e appropriate to assume that shoc*s are correlated!
Dou must also specif# the amount of the variation and the t#pe of variation, as well as which of the two allowed
distriutions (s#mmetric triangular or uniform) the underl#ing variation ta*es! A rectangular distriution implies
that values for the shoc* within a range are all equall# li*el#! A triangular distriution implies that values around
the middle of the range are much more li*el#! In oth cases, #ou must specif# minimum and ma(imum values for
the chosen distriution! For the t#pe of variation it is possile to choose among$ percentage variations (0),
ordinar# change (C), and scaling factor (F)!
After specif#ing the amount and t#pe of variation, and the distriution, #ou can clic* on the Add to list utton if
#ou wish to add the variations in question to the full list of variations with respect to which #ou are calculating
sensitivit#! "he full list is shown in the 99A +etails memo in the ottom half of the 9ensitivit# Choice FormJ each
time #ou clic* on the Add to list utton, an e(tra line appears in that memo!
vii

"he results of an 99A anal#sis consist of estimates of the means and standard deviations for each endogenous
variale of the model! .hen #ou successfull# complete a 9#stematic 9ensitivit# Anal#sis calculation, #ou will e
as*ed if #ou wish to save these two 9olution files! If #ou do so, #ou will also save two 6eports of the 99A
calculation!
.hen #ou save the 9olution files containing means and standard deviations of endogenous results, the @ame for
the 9olution file of means must end with M%!9LB while the name for the 9olution file of standard deviations is the
same e(cept that it ends with 9+!9LB! "he 1eral +escription on each of the two 99A 9olution files contains
details of the 99A runs, including the 99A details (the summar# lines shown on the 9ensitivit# Choice Form)!
.hen #ou load the 99A results into 1iew9,L (this is done automaticall# # 6un&"A0 at the and of the 99A
computation), #ou can see these details # clic*ing on +escription in the 1iew9,L menus!
Appendi# $ "he E#periment %ile
3ere is the content of an E(periment file (8!e(p: suffi(), that is the te(t file used to give commands to the
6un&"A0 software, created # the &enerator module! An E(periment file can e edited efore use with
6un&"A0!
%le &ta$'(RM = )e*ault.$r#;
This gives the real name o the ile containing model !arameters.
+erbal )escri$tion =
Cli#ate Chan&e ,#$act Shocks &enerated b- !enerator.ods;
"ust a descri!tion o the e#!eriment.
Method = !ra&&;
Ste$s = . 4 /;
auto#atic accurac- = -es;
accurac- %&ures = 4;
accurac- $ercent = 01;
#ini#u# subinterval len&th = 2.1-1113;
#ini#u# subinterval *ails = sto$;
accurac- criterion = )ata;
subintervals = .;
Details o the mathematical algorithm used to solve the large non$linear s%stem. The model is solved through a
series o lineari&ations' and b% inter!olating intermediate results' using the Gragg method in 2$($) ste!s.
3o&enous
$o$
$saveslack $*act4ld
$ro%tslack inco#eslack end4slack
c&dslack tradslack
a#s at# at* ats atd
aosec aore& avasec avare&
a*co# a*sec a*re& a*eco# a*esec a*ere&
aoall a*all a*eall
au d$$riv d$&ov d$save
to t$ t# t#s t3 t3s
5o(6)78C9MM,R!) ;
The ollowing variables are endogenous* !o!ulation' world !rice inde# o !rimar% actors +numeraire' set to one,'
slac- variables used to orce imbalances between su!!l% and demand or s!eciic variables' !roductivit% actors
+beginning with .a/,' ta# and subsid% rates +beginning with .t/,' endowments o !rimar% actors.
Rest ndo&enous ;
0ll other variables are endogenousl% com!uted b% the model. The number o endogenous variables coincides with
the number o e1uations in the s%stem.
Shock a*eall(":and",'R9)8C9MM,"6(#erica") = uni*or# /.;3;
Shock a*eall("Ca$ital",'R9)8C9MM,"6(#erica") = uni*or# -1.1.;
Shock a*eall(":abour",'R9)8C9MM,"6(#erica") = uni*or# -1.20;
Shock a*eall(":and",'R9)8C9MM,"C(#erica") = uni*or# 3.30;
Shock a*eall("Ca$ital",'R9)8C9MM,"C(#erica") = uni*or# -1..<;
Shock a*eall(":abour",'R9)8C9MM,"C(#erica") = uni*or# -2.21;
Shock a*eall(":and",'R9)8C9MM,"=eli>e") = uni*or# 2.13;
Shock a*eall("Ca$ital",'R9)8C9MM,"=eli>e") = uni*or# -1.41;
Shock a*eall(":abour",'R9)8C9MM,"=eli>e") = uni*or# -2..1;
Shock a*eall(":and",'R9)8C9MM,"Caribbean") = uni*or# 1./0;
Shock a*eall("Ca$ital",'R9)8C9MM,"Caribbean") = uni*or# -../?;
Shock a*eall(":abour",'R9)8C9MM,"Caribbean") = uni*or# -1./;;
(...)
The !roductivit% o the resource .2and/' in all industries +all elements in the set 3R4D5C4MM,' in region
.60merica/ is increased b% ).738' etc.
Shock tradslack("MServices","6(#erica") = 1.2;;
Shock tradslack("MServices","C(#erica") = -2.30;
Shock tradslack("MServices","=eli>e") = -2.43;
Shock tradslack("MServices","Caribbean") = -3.34;
(@)
The demand or the good .M9ervices/ in region .60merica/ is increased b% :.178' etc.
Shock tradslack("ner&-","6(#erica") = -1.1.;
Shock tradslack("ner&-","C(#erica") = -1.1/;
Shock tradslack("ner&-","=eli>e") = -1.1<;
Shock tradslack("ner&-","Caribbean") = -1.1/;
(@)
"he demand for the good 8Energ#: in region 8@America: is decreased # ?!?'K, etc!
i =efore changing values in the 0aram sheet, however, a cop# of the whole &enerator spreadsheet, with a different
name, should e made, so that all the changes can e done in the newl# created cop#! An e(perienced user ma# e
willing to underta*e this procedure whenever alternative, and possil# etter, parameter estimates are availale for
some regions! Another possile reason could e the need to generate simulations in which onl# one, or a few,
climate change impacts are ta*en into account! For e(ample, to focus onl# on tourism impact, all impact parameters
e(cept those of tourism could e set to Aero! "here are, however, alternative methods for singling out the
contriution of sectoral impacts, using 8sutotals: in the C&E model (this is e(plained in the ne(t section) or #
editing the e(periment file (see Appendi()!
=aseline parameters in the 0aram sheet should e interpreted as follows$
Agriculture$ three parameters for the quadratic relationship etween temperature change and agricultural
productivit#J
9ea Level 6ise$ percentage loss of total land and capital stoc* for a %LC increase in temperatureJ
.ater$ percentage variation in land productivit# for a %LC increase in temperatureJ
"ourism$ variation in net international receipts for a %LC increase in temperatureJ
Energ# +emand$ percentage change in household demand for energ#, for a %LC increase in temperatureJ
3uman 3ealth$ percentage change in laour productivit# (due to mortalit# and moridit#), for a %LC increase
in temperatureJ
,n the Eo 0roductivit#$ percentage change in laour productivit# (due heat stress), for a %LC increase in
temperature!
ii If a different director# is needed, it is necessar# to edit the content of the createshoc- macro, which can e done
quite easil#!
iii "he &"A0 5 +ata =ase is the eighth ma>or pulic release of the &"A0 +ata =ase since the 0ro>ect egan in %44'! A
&"A0 +ata =ase is created on the asis of domestic data ases or input-output (I-,) tales, which are comined
with international datasets on macroeconomic aggregates, ilateral trade, energ#, agricultural input-output, and
protection for the new reference #ears! Interim releases of the data ase are constructed as significant updated
datasets ecome availale! Improvements are also made in data sourcing, scope, and construction procedures! In
&"A0 5 data comes from a variet# of sources (including .orld =an*, @ational 9tatistical Agencies, I"C-CE0II,
C,M"6A+E, IEA, ,EC+, and man# others) and are reconciled inside a consistent framewor*! "he whole process
of construction is quite comple( and it is full# documented at
https$--www!gtap!agecon!purdue!edu-dataases-v5-v5Idoco!asp ! It should e stressed that it is not possile to get a
level of disaggregation (spatial or sectoral) finer than the ma(imum level of disaggregation in the original &"A0
dataase (M2 sectors, %'4 regions)! For this reason, Cariean appears as a single region (the +ownscaler module is
therefore used to post-process the C&E output to get estimates of macroeconomic variales at the national level),
whereas =eliAe corresponds to 86est of Central America: in the &"A0 classification and &u#ana-9uriname to 86est
of 9outh America:!
iv "here are three data files associated with each &"A0 version! "hese are$
"he &loal data set (I-, for each region, trade data etc!) ;&"A0+A"A<
9et information, giving region and commodit# names in aggregation ;&"A09E"9<
0arameter values ;&"A00A6M<
v "he decomposition of national income variales is made possile # the fact that national &+0 can e
computed in different wa#s, among which is the sum of industrial value added! 9imulations with the C&E
model provide information on changes in man# macroeconomic variales, including quantit# and price of
value added aggregates! A reasonale appro(imation for the variation of national income can therefore e
otained as a weighted average of changes in industrial value added, where the weights are given # sectoral
shares in national &+0!
vi "he methodolog# is ased on &aussian Nuadratures, selecting a relativel# small numer of values for input
parameters to get sufficientl# reliale estimates of statistical moments (mean, standard deviation, etc!) for the output
variales! "hese assume$
(a) that the simulation results are well appro(imated # a third-order pol#nomial in the var#ing shoc*s (or parameters)!
() that the shoc*s or parameters which var# all have a s#mmetric distriution!
"he 99A implementation in 6un&"A0 also imposes additional restrictions$
(c) either shoc*s var# or parameters var#, ut not oth at once!
(d) shoc*s or parameters either
(i) var# quite independentl# (Aero correlation), or else
(ii) within user-specified groups of shoc*s or parameters, variations are perfectl# correlated!
In the ECLAC-CIAM model, variations in the shoc*s are more important than variations in model parameters, such
as elasticities of sustitution!
vii After an 99A calculation is finished, there ma# e two reports produced for #our information!
"he first is a 9ummar# 6eport C91 file which gives considerale detail as to how the relevant shoc*s or parameters
were varied! "his is alwa#s produced, even if #ou donOt save the 9olution files giving the estimates of the means and
standard deviations of the variales!
"he second is a te(t file (the 9ensitivit# 6eport file) which contains
P details as to which parameters or shoc*s #ou are var#ing, and the amount and t#pe of variation!
P the contents of the 9ensitivit# Information File at the time of the calculations!
P the Command file for the original simulation (the one whose sensitivit# #ou are investigating)!
"his second 6eport file has suffi( !960! "his file is onl# produced if #ou save the 9olution files giving the estimates
of the means and standard deviations of the variales!