031 Energy Use in The Transportation Sector of Malaysia

ENERGY USE IN THE TRANSPORTATION
SECTOR OF MALAYSIA
FINAL REPORT
A report prepared under the
Malaysian - Danish Environmental
Cooperation Programme
Renewable Energy and Energy Eficiency
Component
The views expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal
editing, are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the
Government of Malaysia nor DANIDA
BY
CONSULTANCY UNIT UNIVERSITY OF MALAYA
LEVEL 2, BLOCK D, PERDANASISWA COMPLEX
UNIVERSITY OF MALAYA
50603 KUALA LUMPUR
MAY 2005
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Transportation is one of the !ey factors for the economy and society Therefore,
transport policyma!ers have to create the policy framewor!s that re"uire the
transport sector to sustain energy with the three#dimensional ob$ective namely
ecology, economy and social acceptability In chapter %, the report discusses about
international experiences on reduction of energy use in transportation sector There
are many methods and policies to reduce energy consumption in transport sector,
however only several of them that are suitable to be used in Malaysia are elaborated
in this chapter Those include fuel economy standard for motor vehicle, fuel economy
labels, fuel switching, fuel taxation, emission abatement, further improvements to
vehicles which have been implemented in other developed as well as developing
countries The study found that many policies can be implemented directly in
Malaysia while some others must be modified to ma!e it suitable for this country
&or example fuel economy label guide program can be directly implemented
however fuel economy standard must be modified because Malaysia has its local
vehicle manufacturers that have to be protected
'missions in the transportation sector produce adverse effects on the
environment that influent human health, organism growth, climatic changes and so
on The (yoto protocol by the )nited Nation &ramewor! *onvention on *limate
change +)N&**, in December -../, prescribed legally binding greenhouse gas
emission target of about 01 below their -..2 level About -32 countries including
Malaysia now adopt this protocol The transportation sector is the main contributor
for emission in this country In order to calculate the potential emission by this
activity, the types of fuel use should be identified The study found that there are no
radical changes of fuel use for transportation sector in Malaysia The data showed
that fuel use are 041 petrol, 451 diesel, -41 AT&, 2231 Natural Gas, and 2241
electricity in year %222 It was pro$ected to be 531 petrol, 5%1 diesel, -%1 AT&,
2%.1 Natural Gas and only 22/1 electricity in the year %2%2 The study found that
the transportation sector has contributed huge emissions in this country and the
ii
change on fuel type is necessary to change the emission These are discussed
intensively in chapter 4
The main part of the transport and energy investigations and pro$ections is
presented in *hapter 5 The first part of the chapter discusses a review of existing
data available from related authorities and transportation studies that were
underta!en to date 6opulation growth, socio#economic factors and energy use in
transportation sector have been considered &orecasting future transportation growth
based on population growth and socio#economic factors up to %2 years is presented
*onsideration of relationship between transportation trips production and energy
consumption is elaborated &ormulation of a model for forecasting energy
consumption by transportation sector and model validation that ta!es into
consideration the correlation coefficient is discussed in detail &urthermore, the uses
of the model to analy7e energy consumption based on the modal split scenarios are
also presented This topic is discussed in *hapter 0
Due to rapid economic growth, the usage of fuel especially petrol and diesel for
transportation sector has increased tremendously As a result, the government is
encouraging the use of alternative fuels in the transportation sector 8ne of the
proposals is to use natural gas +NG, as an alternative fuel and proposing a suitable
policy for it 9tudy on natural gas vehicle +NG:, has been underta!en to identify the
deficiency and to improve the previous policies This study involved respondents
+consumers, from public transports +taxi drivers, taxi and bus companies, and owners
of pump stations to identify their opinion about the policy Data collection to
identify an overview of the current status of NG: development including mar!et
activities and the future prospects of NG: in Malaysia are conducted by interviewing
respondents
Malaysia has been experiencing a dramatic increase in the number of vehicles
and this is pro$ected to be higher in the future due to rising income per capita
*hapter 3 focuses on the potential implementation of fuel economy standards for
iii
motor vehicles in Malaysia The fuel economy standard is developed based on the
fuel consumption data that is obtained from manufacturers and other related sources
;ith the increasing number of vehicles, fuel economy standards are one of the highly
effective policies for decreasing energy use in the transportation sector &uel
economy standards are also capable of reducing air pollution In this study, the
potential efficiency improvements of vehicles are analy7ed by using the engineering#
economic analysis Meanwhile the possible efficiency improvement of motor
vehicles in reducing the fuel consumption in the transportation sector in the future is
examined by relating the energy, economical and environmental impacts
iv
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This report is impossible to be completed without help and support from
several individuals and organi7ation ;e would li!e to than! and ac!nowledge all of
them <owever, the following individuals and organi7ations have given very
important input to us to ma!e this study a success, those are=
'conomic 6lanning )nit, 6rime Minister>s Department who has given us the
opportunity to be involved in this pro$ect and provided us with latest secondary
data
8fficers from several government agencies and non#government agencies that
provided us with the latest data and information that have been used in this
report
The respondents that allocated their busy time to fill the "uestionnaires ;ithout
their helps it is impossible to complete this report
8ur research assistants <usnawan Mutiara, Mahendra :arman and ?usria
Darma for their excellent wor! on data collection and data analysis
All individuals that provided input information for us and allocating their time
to ma!e the study a success, we wish to than! them for their help
;e hope this document can be used by energy policyma!ers and practitioners
especially from 'conomic 6lanning )nit in ta!ing their decisions related to energy
for transport sector as well as anybody involved in the energy sector in Malaysia
Mas$u!i <$ <assan
Mohd @ehan (arim
TM Indra Mahlia
*onsultancy )nit, )niversity 8f Malaya +)6)M,
Aevel %, Bloc! D, 6erdanasiswa *omplex
)niversity of Malaya, 02324 (uala Aumpur December %225
v
CONTENTS
'C'*)TI:' 9)MMA@? DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD ii
A*(N8;A'DGM'NT9 DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD v
*8NT'NT9 DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD vi
AI9T 8& &IG)@'9 DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD x
AI9T 8& TABA'9 DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD xiv
N8M'N*AAT)@'9 DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD xxii
*<A6T'@ -= INT@8D)*TI8N DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -
-- Bac!ground DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 5
-% 8b$ectives of the study D DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD .
-4 *ontributions of the study DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -2
-5 Aimitation of the study DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -2
-0 8rgani7ation of the report DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD --
*<A6T'@ %= INT'@NATI8NAA 'C6'@I'N*'9 8N @'D)*TI8N 8&
'N'@G? )9' IN T@AN968@T 9'*T8@ DDDDDDDDDDDD -5
%- Introduction DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -3
%% 6rogram @eview DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -E
%4 Transportation 6olicy in selected countries DDDDDDD %-
%4- Thailand DDDDDDD %-
%4% 9ingapore DDDDDDD %%
%44 'uropean *ountries DDDDDDD %4
%45 Fapan DDDDDDD %5
%40 Australia DDDDDDD %0
%43 India DDDDDDD %3
%4/ &rance DDDDDDD %/
%4E New Gealand DDDDDDD %/
%4. Netherlands DDDDDDD %/
%4-2
6hilippines DDDDDDD %E
%5 Transportation @egulation DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 42
%0 :oluntary agreements program DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 42
%3 Air "uality policies DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 4%
%/ &uel economy DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 45
%E *onclusions DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 53
*<A6T'@ 4= <I9T8@I*AA AND &)T)@' T@'ND 8& 'N'@G?
D'MAND AND 'N:I@8NM'NTAA 'MI99I8N9 &@8M T<'
T@AN968@TATI8N 9'*T8@ DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 02
4- Introduction DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 0-
4% 9urvey data DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 04
44 Methodology DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 0/
45 @esults and Discussion DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 0E
40 *onclusions DDDDDDDDDDDDDD 30
vi
*<A6T'@ 5= T@AN968@TATI8N 9?9T'M D':'A86M'NT AND
'N'@G? *8N9)M6TI8N IN MAAA?9IA DDDDDDDDDD 33
5- Introduction DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 3/
5-- Modes of Transportation DDDDDDDDDDDDDD 3E
5-% Transportation Demand Analysis DDDDDDDDDDD 3.
5-4 9tudy 8b$ectives DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD /2
5-5 *onceptual &ramewor! DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD /-
5% Type of Data *ollected DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD /%
5%- @oad Transport DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD /%
5%% @ail Transport DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD /.
5%4 Air Transport DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD E5
5%5 Maritime Transport DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD .-
5%0 6assenger Transport Mode 9hare DDDDDDDDDDD .%
5%3 Number of :ehicle @egistration by Type of &uel DDDDD .4
5%/ 6opulation DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD .5
5%E Gross Domestic 6roduct +GD6, DDDDDDDDDDDD .0
5%. 'mployment DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD .3
54 @eview of <ND6 and 9M)@T H (A 9tudy DDDDDDDDDD ./
54- Trip 6roduction DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD ..
54% Trip Generation and Attraction Model DDDDDDDDD -22
544 Trip 6roduction @ates DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -24
545 Model for &orecasting :ehicles DDDDDDDDDDDD -25
540 Model 9hare DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -25
55 &uture 9ocioeconomic &ramewor! DDDDDDDDDDDDD -20
50 Analysis &or Transportation Demand DDDDDDDDDDDD -2/
50- Method - DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -2E
50% Method % DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD --%
504 Method 4 DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD --0
505 9ummary of Method -, Method % and Method 4 DDDDD -%%
500 &uture Total Trip Generation DDDDDDDDDDDDD -%4
503 Model 9plit 9cenarios DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -%0
50/ &uture Trip Generation Based on 9cenario DDDDDDD -%3
50E :ehicle (ilometer DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -%/
53 &uel *onsumption In Transportation 9ector DDDDDDDDDD -%E
53- Do Nothing or Do 9omething &uel *onsumption DDDDD -4-
5/ 'nergy *onsumption In Transportation 9ector DDDDDDDDD -40
5/- @oad Transport DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -43
5/% @ail Transport DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -4/
5/4 Air Transport DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -4E
5/5 Total 'nergy *onsumed by @oad, @ail and Air Transport D -4E
5E *onclusions and @ecommendations DDDDDDDDD -52
*<A6T'@ 0= &'A9IBIAIT? AND 68T'NTIAA 8& 9;IT*<ING T8
NG: &8@ *8MM'@*IAA :'<I*A'9 IN MAAA?9IA DDDDDD
-55
0- Introduction DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -50
0% 9urvey data DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -5/
vii
0%- Natural Gas @eserves DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -5E
0%% Natural Gas @eserve in Malaysia DDDDDDDDDDD -0-
0%4 Natural Gas :ehicle in Malaysia and 8ther *ountries DDD -04
0%5 Number of :ehicles in Malaysia DDDDDDDDDDD -03
0%0 6rice of 8il and Natural Gas in Malaysia DDDDDDDD -32
04 Methodology DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -32
04- 6rimary Data *ollection DDDDDDDDDDDDDD -3-
04% 9econdary Data *ollection DDDDDDDDDDDDDD -35
044 *onducting 'conomic Analysis DDDDDDDDDDDD -33
05 @esults and Discussions DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -3/
05- 6rediction for Number of 6ublic Transport in Malaysia DD -3/
05% 6ublic Transportation DD -3/
054 *ompanies and Managers of 6ump 9tation DD -/5
055 'conomic Analysis DD -/3
00 *onclusions and 9uggestions DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -/.
00- *onclusions DD -/.
00% 9uggestions DD -E-
*<A6T'@ 3= 9T)D? 8N :'<I*A' '&&I*I'N*? 9TANDA@D9 D -EE
3- Introduction DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -E.
3-- Bac!ground DD -E.
3% 9urvey data DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -.-
34 Methodology DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -.5
34- &uel *onsumption DD -.5
34% 'ngineering 'conomic Analysis DD -.0
344 6otential &uel 9avings DD %2%
35 @esults and Discussions DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %2/
35- Introduction DD %2/
35% &uel *onsumption DD %2/
354 :ehicle Growth DD %2E
355 'ngineeringI'conomic Analysis DD %2.
350 6otential &uel 9avings DD %3%
353 'conomic Impact of the 9tandards DD %/-
30 *onclusions and @ecommendations DDDDDDDDDDDDD %/4
30- *onclusion DD %/4
30% @ecommendations DD %/5
viii
LIST OF FIGURES
No Description 6age
-- &inal energy use by sector in %22% of 44%.2 !toe DDDDD 4
-% &inal consumption for petroleum product in %22% of %2,340 !toe E
-4 6ercentage of transportation sector energy use based on fuel types
in %22% of -4,55- !toe DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD E
%- Austrian draft fuel economy label DDDDDDDDDDDDD 43
%% Australian draft fuel consumption labels DDDDDDDDDD 4/
%4 *anadian fuel economy label DDDDDDDDD 4E
%5 Danish draft fuel consumption label DDDDDDDDDDD 4.
%0 9wedish fuel economy label DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 52
%3 9wiss draft fuel economy label DDDDDDDDDDDDD 5-
%/ )9 fuel consumption label DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 5%
%E )( fuel economy label DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 54
%. 'nvironmental information guide DDDDDDDDDDDD 55
4- 6redicted energy demand based on percentage fuel mix for
transportation sector in Malaysia DDDDDDDDDDDDD 0.
4% 6attern of *8
%
and *8 emissions production by transportation
sector in Malaysia DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 3-
44 6attern of 98
%
and N8
x
emissions production by transportation
sector in Malaysia DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 3-
5- &ederal highway view towards (uala Aumpur DDDDDDDD /4
5% Motori7ation rates in Malaysia from -..- to %22% DDDDDD /5
54 Trends of private cars and public transport vehicles DDDDDD /E
55 Integrated rail services in (lang :alley DDDDDDDDDD E%
50 A@T passengers per day DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD E4
53 6ar! Jn ride at A@T station DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD E4
5/ 6roportion of passenger by modes DDDDDDDDDDDD .4
5E 9catter#plot of observed vs modeled passenger car volumes
+method -, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -2.
5. 9catter#plot of observed vs modeled bus volumes +method -, D --2
5-2 9catter#plot of observed vs modeled commercial vehicle
+method -, ---
5-- 9catter#plot of observed vs modeled passenger car volumes
+method %, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD --4
5-% 9catter#plot of observed vs modeled bus volumes +method %, D --5
+method %, --0
5-5 9catter#plot of observed vs modeled passenger car +method 4, --.
5-0 9catter#plot of observed vs modeled bus +method 4, DDDDD -%2
ix
+method 4, -%-
5-/ &orecasted petrol consumption by road transport sector +literIday, -45
5-E &orecasted diesel consumption by road transport sector +literIday, -45
5-. &orecasted petrol consumption by road transport sector +!toeIyear, -43
5%2 &orecasted diesel consumption by road transport sector +!toeIyear, -4/
5%- &orecasted energy used in transportation sector +do nothing, DD -4.
5%% &orecasted energy used in transportation sector +do something, D -52
0- 6ercentage of vehicles by type DDDDDDDDDDDDDD -0E
0% Increasing number of vehicles in Malaysia +-.E/ H %22%, DDD -0.
04 Number of public transport +bus and taxi, from the year -.E/ to
%22% DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -0.
3- Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for class I
+*ity, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %4E
3% 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for class I +city, DDDDDD %4.
34 Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for class I
+<ighway, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %52
35 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for class I +highway, DDDD %52
30 Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for class II
+*ity, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %5-
33 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for class II +city, DDDDD %5%
3/ Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for class II
3E 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for class II +highway, DDDD %54
3. Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for class III
+*ity, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %55
3-2 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for class III +city, DDDDD %50
3-- Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for class III
3-% 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for class III +highway, DDD %53
3-4 Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for class I:
+*ity, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %5/
3-5 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for class I: +city, DDDDD %5E
3-0 Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for class I:
+<ighway, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %5.
3-3 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for class I: +highway, DDD %5.
3-/ Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for % stro!e
motorcycle +method -, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %02
3-E 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for % stro!e motorcycle
+method -, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
%0-
x
3-. Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for % stro!e
motorcycle +method %, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %0%
3%2 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for % stro!e motorcycle
+method %, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %0%
3%- Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for 5 stro!e
motorcycle DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %04
3%% 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for motorcycles 5 stro!es DD %05
3%4 Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for medium
duty lorry +class % K 4, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %00
3%5 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for medium duty lorry
+class % K 4, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %00
3%0 Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for medium
duty lorry +class 5 # 3, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %0/
3%3 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for medium duty lorry
+class 5 H 3, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %0/
3%/ Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for heavy duty
lorry +class / K E, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %0.
3%E 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for heavy duty lorry
+class / K E, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %0.
3%. Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for busses D %3-
342 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for busses DDDDDDDD %3-
34- 6ro$ected fuel savings for cars DDDDDDDDDDDDD %34
34% &uel consumption with and without standards +9TD vs BA), for
cars DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %35
344 6ro$ected fuel savings for motorcycles DDDDDDDDDDD %30
345 &uel consumption with and without standards +9TD vs BA), for
motorcycles DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %33
340 6ro$ected fuel savings for medium duty lorry +class % K 4, DDD %3/
343 &uel consumption with and without standards +9TD vs BA), for
medium duty lorry +class % K 4, DDDDDDDDDDDDD %3E
34/ 6ro$ected fuel savings for busses DDDDDDDDDDDDD %3.
34E &uel consumption with and without standards +9TD vs BA), for
busses DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %/2
3A- *ar growth in Malaysia DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %E4
3A% Motorcycle growth in Malaysia DDDDDDDDDDDDD %E4
3A4 Aorry growth in Malaysia DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %E5
3A5 Bus growth in Malaysia DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %E5
xi
xii
LIST OF TABLES
No Description 6age
%- 'xamples of transport regulations in selected countries DDD 42
%% 'xamples of transport voluntary agreement program in selected
countries DDDD
4-
%4 'mission limits for new cars DDDDDDDDDDDDDD 4%
%5 &uel economy labelling schemes in selected countries DDD 45
4- &inal energy use by transportation sector DDDD 0-
4% Transportation sector energy use based on fuel types DDDDD 04
44 *8
%
, 98
%
, N8
x
and *8 emission from fossil fuel per GF energy
use by transportation sector DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 05
45 6redicted energy demand and fuel mix of transportation sector in
Malaysia DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 0E
40 6otential emissions production by transportation sector in
Malaysia DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
3%
5- Mode classification scheme DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD 3.
5% Number of motocars and motori7ation rates in Malaysia from
-..- to %22% DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD /4
54 Number of motorcycles and motori7ation rates from -..- to %22% /0
55 Number of buses, commercial and other vehicles
from 1991 to 2002
..
/3
50 Proportion of private cars and public transport
vehicles from 1991 to 2002
..
//
53 9ummary of road mileage in Malaysia DDDDDDDDDDD /.
5/ (TMB passengers and freight traffic from year -..% to %22% DD E2
5E @ail passengers from -..E to %22% DDDDDDDDDDDD E5
5. Air traffic at public#use airports in Malaysia from year -..- to
%22% DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD E0
5-2 Air passengers traffic at public#use airports in Malaysia from year
-..2 to %22% DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD E3
5-- International air passenger#!m data of (AIA DDDDDDDD E/
5-% Domestic air passenger#!m data of (AIA DDDDDDDDDD EE
5-4 Air passenger#!m data of (ota (inabalu airport DDDDDDD E.
5-5 Air passenger#!m data of (uching airport DDDDDDDDD .2
5-0 Air passenger#!m data of 6enang airport DDDDDDDDDD .2
5-3 Air passenger#!m data of Aang!awi airport DDDDDDDDD .-
xiii
5-/ Total cargo throughput by ports from year -..- to %22% DDDD .%
5-E Number of new vehicle registration based on fuel type DDDD .5
5-. Malaysia population from -..- to %22% DDDDDDDDDD .0
5%2 Gross domestic products +GD6, from -..- to %22% DDDDDD .3
5%- 'mployment in all sectors from -..- to %22% DDDDDDDD ./
5%% Trip production regression model DDDDDDDDDDDDD -2-
5%4 General e"uation fro the trip generationIattraction model +macro
level, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -2%
5%5 General e"uation fro the trip generationIattraction model +micro
level, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -2%
5%0 Average vehicle occupancy and load factor DDDDDDDDD -24
5%3 Average daily trip production rates by vehicle type in Malaysia D -24
5%/ Number of vehicles forecasting models in Malaysia DDDDD -25
5%E Modal share in the (uala Aumpur metropolitan area DDDDD -20
5%. 6ro$ected populations, %220 H %2%2 DDDDDDDDDDDD -23
542 6ro$ected employment from year %220 to %2%2 DDDDDDD -23
54- 6ro$ected gross domestic product +GD6, from year %220 to %2%2 -2/
54% 8bserved vs modeled passenger car volumes +method -, DDD -2.
544 8bserved vs modeled bus volumes +method -, DDDDDDD --2
545 8bserved vs modeled commercial veh +method -, DDDDDD ---
540 8bserved vs modeled passenger car volumes +method %, DDD --%
543 8bserved vs modeled bus volumes +method %, DDDDDDD --4
54/ 8bserved vs modeled commercial vehicle +method %, DDDD --5
54E No of cars, busses and commercial vehicle year -..- to %22% D --3
54. No of daily rail passenger year -..E to %22% DDDDDDDD --3
552 No of daily air passenger DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD --/
55- Method 4 regression model DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD --E
55% 8bserved vs modeled passenger car volumes +method 4, DDD --.
554 8bserved vs modeled bus volumes +method 4, DDDDDDD -%2
555 8bserved vs modeled commercial vehicle +method 4, DDDD -%-
550 Trips generation models DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -%4
553 &orecasted no of passengers by type of modes DDDDDDD -%5
55/ &orecasted modal split by type of modes DDDDDDDDDD -%0
55E &uture modal split scenarios DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -%3
55. &orecasted no of vehicles by type of modes +do nothing scenario, -%/
502 &orecasted no of vehicles by type of modes +do something
scenario, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -%/
50- &orecasted trip generation rates by type of modes DDDDDD -%/
50% Total vehicle#!m of the traffic +do nothing scenario, DDDDD -%E
504 Total vehicle#!m of the traffic +do something scenario, DDDD -%E
505 9ummary statistics for passenger cars, -..2 H %222 DDDDDD -%.
500 9ummary statistics for two#axle truc!s, -..2 H %222 DDDDD -%.
503 No of new vehicle registration based on fuel types DDDDDD -42
50/ 6roportion of new vehicle registration based on fuel types DDD -42
50E &orecasted no of vehicles +do nothing scenario, DDDDDDD -4%
xiv
50. &orecasted no of vehicles +do something scenario, DDDDDD -4%
532 &orecasted fuel consumption +do nothing scenario, DDDDDD -44
53- &orecasted fuel consumption +do something scenario, DDDDD -44
53% 'nergy use by various types of vehicles DDDDDDDDDD -40
534 &orecasted energy consumption of rail transport DDDDDDD -4/
535 &orecasted energy consumption of air transport DDDDDDD -4E
530 &orecasted energy used in transportation sector +do nothing, DD -4.
533 &orecasted energy used in transportation sector +do something, D -4.
0- ;orld natural gas reserves by country as Fanuary -, %224
+'IA%225, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -02
0% ;orld natural gas vehicles by country DDDDDDDDDDD -03
04 Number of vehicles in Malaysia +F6F,%22%, DDDDDDDDD -0/
05 6rice of fuels in Malaysia DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -32
00 6rediction of total public transport +bus and taxi, from year %220
to %2%2 DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -3.
03 &eedbac! obtained based on the survey carried out on NG: user
+taxi driver, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -/2
0/ &eedbac! obtained based on the survey carried out on non # NG:
user +taxi driver, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
-/-
0E &eedbac! obtained based on the survey carried out on managers of
bus companies DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -/4
0. 'stimated annual consumption between petrol and natural gas D -//
0-2 'stimated annual consumption between diesel and natural gas D -//
0-- 'stimated annual maintenance cost +@M, for different fuels DD -/E
0-% *omparison of total operation cost for public transport with
different fuel consumption DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD -/.
3- Total number of vehicles in Malaysia DDDDDDDDDDD -.-
3% &uel consumption data +*A@, DDDDDDDDDDDDDD -.%
34 Aist of motorcycle model and price DDDDDDDDDDDD -.4
35 Fuel cost over the vehicles 10 years lifetime
..
%2E
30 TypesIclasses of cars DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %-2
33 TypesIclasses of motorcycles DDDDDDDDDDDDDD %-2
3/ TypesIclasses of lorry DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %--
3E Potential increase in fuel economy and related price
increase for cars
...
%-%
3. 6otential increase in fuel economy and cost for motorcycles DD %-4
3-2 6otential increase in fuel economy and related price increase for
medium duty lorry +class % K 4, DDDDDDDDDDDDD %-5
3-- 6otential increase in fuel economy and related price increase for
xv
medium duty lorry +class 5 # 3, DDDDDDDDDDDDDD %-0
3-% 6otential increase in fuel economy and related price increase for
heavy duty lorry +class / K E, DDDDDDDDDDDDDD %-3
3-4 &'9 and incremental cost of design options for class I car DDD %-E
3-5 &'9 and incremental cost of design options for class II DDDD %-.
3-0 &'9 and incremental cost of design options for class III DDDD %-.
3-3 &'9 and incremental cost of design options for class I: DDDD %%2
3-/ &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class I
+*IT?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %%2
3-E &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class I
+<IG<;A?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %%-
3-. &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class II
+*IT?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %%-
3%2 &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class II
+<IG<;A?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %%%
3%- &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class III
+*IT?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %%%
3%% &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class III
+<IG<;A?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %%4
3%4 &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class I:
+*IT?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %%4
3%5 &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class I:
+<IG<;A?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %%5
3%0 &'9 and incremental cost of design option for % stro!e motorcycle
+M'T<8D I, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %%5
3%3 &'9 and incremental cost of design option for % stro!e motorcycle
+M'T<8D II, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %%0
3%/ &'9 and incremental cost of design option for 5 stro!e motorcycle %%0
3%E &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for % stro!e
motorcycle +M'T<8D I, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD
%%3
3%. &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for % stro!e
motorcycle +M'T<8D II, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %%3
342 &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for 5 stro!e
motorcycle DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %%/
34- &'9 and incremental cost of design option for medium duty lorry
+class % K 4, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %%E
34% &'9 and incremental cost of design option for medium duty lorry
+class 5 # 3, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %%.
xvi
344 &'9 and incremental cost of design option for heavy duty lorry
+class / K E, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %42
345 &'9 and incremental cost of design option for busses DDD %4-
340 &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for medium
duty lorry +class % K 4, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %4%
343 &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for medium
duty lorry +class 5 # 3, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %44
34/ &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for heavy
duty lorry +class / K E, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %45
34E &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for bus D %40
34. The input value of baseline models for each class of car
+city driving, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %43
352 The input value of baseline models for each class of car
+highway driving, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %43
35- The input value of baseline models for each class of motorcycles %4/
35% The input value of baseline models for each class of lorries and
busses DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %4/
354 Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for class I car
+*IT?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %4E
355 Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for class I car
+<IG<;A?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %4.
350 Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for class II car
+*IT?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %5-
353 Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for class II car
+<IG<;A?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %5%
35/ Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for class III car
+*IT?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %55
35E Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for class III car
+<IG<;A?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %50
35. Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for class I: car
+*IT?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %5/
302 Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for class I: car
+<IG<;A?, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %5E
30- Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for % stro!e
motorcycle +method -, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %02
30% Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for % stro!e
motorcycle +method %, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %0-
304 Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for 5 stro!e
xvii
motorcycle DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %04
305 Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for medium duty
lorry +class % K 4, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %05
300 Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for medium duty
lorry +class 5 # 3, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %03
303 Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for heavy duty
lorry +class / K E, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %0E
30/ Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for busses DDD %32
30E Input data for potential fuel saving of cars DDDDDDDDD %3%
30. The calculation of fuel savings for cars DDDDDDDDDD %34
332 Input data for potential fuel saving of motorcycles DDDDDD %35
33- The calculation of fuel savings for motorcycles DDDDDDD %30
33% Input data for potential fuel saving of medium duty lorry
+class % K 4, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %33
334 The calculation of fuel savings for medium duty lorry
+class % K 4, DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %3/
335 Input data for potential fuel saving of busses DDDDDDDD %3E
330 The calculation of fuel savings for busses DDDDDDDDD %3.
333 The calculation result from the cost#benefit analysis for cars DD %/-
33/ The calculation result from the cost#benefit analysis for
motorcycle DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %/%
33E The calculation result from the cost#benefit analysis for medium
duty lorry DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD %/%
33. The calculation result from the cost#benefit analysis for busses D %/4
xviii
NOMENCLATURES
9ymbols Description )nit
v
i
AEI Annual efficiency improvement
AFC Annual fuel cost +@M,
v
i
ANS Annuali7ed net savings in year i of vehicle +@M,
v
i
AS
Applicable stoc! in year i of vehicle
v
i
AS
-
Applicable stoc! in year i#- of vehicle
v
s
BFC
Baseline fuel consumption in the year of standards
enacted for vehicle
+@M,
v
i
BS
Bill savings in year i of vehicle +@M,
C Annual maintenance cost +@M,
C,k *onstant value
*
d
Drag coefficient
*
g
Natural gas consumption +AiterI!m,
*
o
The conventional fuel consumption before conversion +AiterI!m,
CRF The capital recovery factor
D Annual distance travel +!m,
d Discount rate +1,
n
i
ES
'nergy use in year i of fuel type n
+!toe,
F &uel consumption
+AiterI-22!m,
n
p
FE
'mission per unit energy of fuel type n +!gIGF,
v
i
FS &uel savings in year i of vehicle +liter,
v
IC
Incremental cost for the more efficient vehicle +@M,
v
s
IIC
Initial incremental cost for more efficient vehicle +@M,
r
L Aife span of vehicles
+year,
LCC Aife *ycle *ost +@M,
M
g
Maintenance cost of NG: +@MIyear,
M
o
Maintenance cost before conversion +@MIyear,
MPG
2
The base year fleet average fuel economy +-I!m,
MPG
TOT
The potential new fleet average fuel economy +-I!m,
N Aife time of the appliance +year,
v
i
Na Number of vehicles in year i
v
i
Na
-
Number of vehicles in year i#-
v
i
NS Net savings in year i for vehicle +@M,
OC Annual operating expenses +@M,
P &uel price +@M,
xix
6
o
6rice of the conventional fuel +diesel or petrol, +@MIliter,
6
g
6rice of natural gas +@MIliter,
PAY 6aybac! period +year,
PC Investment cost +@M,
( )
v
i
ANS PV
6resent value of annuali7ed net saving in year i +@M,
PWF 6resent worth factor
R &uel price +@M,
r Discount rate +1,
9 saving +@MIyear,
v
s
SFC
9tandard fuel consumption of vehicle +literIyr,
v
i
Sh 9hipments in year i of vehicle
v
i
SSF
9hipment survival factor in year i of vehicle
v
s
TEI Total efficiency improvement of vehicle +1,
i
TM Total emission in year i +!g, Ton,
i
)tili7ation increase
v
i
FS Initial unit energy savings in year i of vehicle +AiterIyear,
v
s
FS
Initial unit fuel saving +AiterIyear,
! ?ear predicted H year start
Y 6redicted value
" Motor vehicles predicted data
# "
The average data
v
i
Ys$ ?ear of standards enacted of vehicle +year,
v
i
Ysh
?ear i of shipment of vehicle +year,
v
T
Y%&
?ear target calculation for vehicle +year,
Abbreviation
ASEAN Association of 9outheast Asian Nations
ATF Aviation Turbine &uel
CAFE *orporate Average &uel 'conomy
CF *onversion factor
CNG *ompressed Natural Gas
CO *arbon monoxide
CO
'
*arbon dioxide
CSE *entre for 9cience and 'nvironment
DAF Dutch vehicle Ma!er Association
EDI 'lectronic Data Interchange
G( Gigagram
G)G Green <ouse Gas
G* Giga Foule
)C <ydrocarbon
xx
IEA International 'nergy Agency
k%+$ (ilo ton oil e"uivalent
LPG Ai"uefied 6etroleum Gas
LRT Aight @ail Transit
I , M Inspection and Maintenance
M-d Million Barrel per Day
MPG ile per !allon
M% etric ton
NG Natural "as
NGV Natural !as #ehicle
OECD 8rgani7ation for 'conomic *o#operation and Development
P* 6eta$oule
SO
'
9ulfur dioxide
SLEV $uper %ltra &o' (mission #ehicle
SV 9port )tility :ehicle
xxi
ENERGY USE IN THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR OF MAAYSIA
C!A"TER #
INTRODUCTION
Transportation is one of the ma$or human activities around the world )nfortunately,
this activity is burning the limited nonrenewable energy that leads to some negative
impact to our living environment Therefore, there is a necessity to adopt suitable
energy policy for transportation sector as one of the options to balance the demand
and supply for energy at the government, society and individual levels This effort
would lead to the preservation of our limited nonrenewable energy resources and our
living environment In addition, it is the responsibility and contribution of the present
people towards the future generations 'nergy planning and policy has become very
important in the public agenda of most developed as well as some developing
countries today The importance of energy planning and policy is lin!ed to industrial
competitiveness, energy security and environmental advantage Transportation in
Malaysia is still using traditional fossil fuel type such as gasoline, diesel and
electricity These activities create millions of tons of greenhouse gases each year
6attern of emissions production by transportation sector in Malaysia is has not
analysed accurately yet 9uitable energy planning and policy in transportation sector
can reduce the demand for fossil fuel and hence reduce the production of greenhouse
gases and other emissions Based on fossil fuel consumption, transportation sector
accounts for almost 5. percent of the national greenhouse gas emissions +M89T',
%222, Therefore, suitable policies can play an important role in helping Malaysia to
meet overall greenhouse gas and emissions reduction target and at the same time
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %
reducing the energy consumption, economic benefit as well as improving the
competitiveness of our product in the international arena
'nergy conservation in the transport sectors helps to reduce the energy
consumption In most countries, Transportation energy consumption ranges from
%21 to 321 of the total electricity consumption 8n average, the Transportation
sector in Malaysia uses about 521 of the total energy demand +National 'nergy
Balance, %224, The final energy use by sector in Malaysia is presented in &igure --
This energy is used by a variety of type transport such as motor car, motorcycle, bus,
goods vehicle, train, A@T, airplane, marine and etc to provide transportation services
and other end#uses for society Ideally, fuel consumption by various vehicles such as
motor car, motorcycle, bus and freight vehicle must be set to a certain level in order
to ensure that they use energy efficiently &or the benefit of the consumers, the
comparable energy consumption of the vehicle must be characteri7ed Based on type
of fuel used, the petrol +gasoline, and diesel has been the largest of energy share in
transportation sector, which are about 001 and 4-1 of total energy consumption in
transport sector +National 'nergy Balance, %224, In order to reduce energy
consumption in this country, consumer should be educated to select the most efficient
vehicle from the mar!et or to promote alternative fuel This ob$ective can be
achieved by introducing fuel economy program and implementing suitable policy
such as shifting to public transport and switching to NG:
)sing energy efficiently and caring about the environment are two important
conducive factors under the current global mar!et conditions @eali7ing that, energy
efficiency policy is becoming a strategic policy for many nations today This is also
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "
the main reason for the Malaysian government to focus extensively and allocate
ade"uate resources in the .
th
Malaysia 6lan to encourage the efficient use of energy
resources and to diversify fuel use in transportation sector 6arallel with the interest
shown by the government, this study is investigate energy use in the transportation
sector of Malaysia together with proposing policy recommendations with a view to
reduce energy intensity in the transportation sector
&igure -- &inal energy use by sector in %22% of 44%.2 !toe +National 'nergy
Balance %224,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ &
#$# Ba%&'ro(n)
&or more than two decades, in average Malaysia>s economy grew more than
31 per annum The Gross Domestic 6roduct increased from @M /.,442 million in
-..2 to @M %55,000 million in %225 At the same time, the per capita income has
increased from @M 3,%42 to @M -0,4/3 +'conomic 6lanning )nit, %225, 'conomic
growth is the main driving factor for increased energy demand in transportation
sector in Malaysia Transportation is a fundamental prere"uisite for a society>s
development and improvement of people>s life As the Malaysian economy grew
rapidly in recent years, the importance of transportation sector has been reali7ed for
both continuous economic growth and improvement of standard of living The
increasing number of passenger and vehicle time to time increasing trip lengths and
traffic densities, thereby increasing the energy used for propulsion of vehicles
Moreover, with the increase of income levels as well as unconstrained expansion of
the cities, the private vehicle population has grown year by year in Malaysia
<owever, this phenomenon affects to increase of energy consumption especially
from fossil fuels and conse"uently increase air pollution due to their combustion In
addition, traffic speeds also lead to increased energy consumption 8ther parameters
such as vehicle population, occupancy level, vehicle utili7ation pattern and fuel
efficiency of different vehicles as well as emissions factor should be ta!en into the
account in order to optimi7e energy use in this particular sector
9ince the transportation systems is dependent on petroleum oil, which is
limited in terms of availability, it is important for energy planners to plan for greater
efficiency of energy use in transport sector in this country which would reduce rapid
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ '
use of petroleum oils and also reduce growing air pollution especially on *8
%
emission which is two#third comes from transport fuels combustion @ecently, India
as a low per capita income country but have greater *8
%
emissions based
transportation sector is already begin to manage the energy use for transport sector
by conducting several studies and policies such as implementing fuels energy
efficiency policy as well as improved the fuels "uality standard &urthermore, some
studies on 'uropean and Fapanese fuel economy initiatives= what they are, their
prospects for success, their usefulness is given by 6lot!in +%22%, In 'uropean
*ountries which are mostly oils importer, the infrastructure improvement was done
by traffic controlled in the cities to avoid traffic $am as well as by implementing strict
rule on the vehicle speed at the highway was successfully reduce total fuel
consumption and maintain air "uality +)anielis, 199*+, +Aias!as, %222, Besides
that, by implementing several efficiency policies such as fuel economy program as
well as introducing alternative fuel cars with lower fuel consumption can lower
emissions 9everal developed countries such as Fapan, 'ngland, )9A and 9weden
have also implemented the policy to reduce energy intensity by population such as
higher taxation for petroleum fuels as well as for every gram of *8
%
emits more than
the level of standard
Malaysia with the rapid petroleum based fuel growth also tries to introduce
Natural gas to be primary fuel <owever, more than E21 of vehicles are still running
with petrol fuels It is a challenge for Malaysia government to implement energy
security or reducing energy intensity especially in terms of petroleum fuels used in
transport sector Therefore, comprehensive study must initiate from this date to
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ $
overta!e this problem while petroleum crisis and environmental impact being a great
issues recently This study is necessary to develop energy used database for transport
sector and will be used for total energy used database in this country The database
will be dedicated to Malaysia policy ma!ers for further action in order to manage
energy consumption and economic growth simultaneously based on energy intensity
As stated earlier, motor vehicle is one of the ma$or energy consuming in the
transportation sector According to National 'nergy Balance +%224,, motor vehicle
accounts more than E21 of overall consumption of petroleum product share
Therefore, it perhaps will save a significant amount of energy in transportation sector
if suitable efficiency policy for motor vehicle implemented in this country
9ince land transport is one of the ma$or energy consumers in the transportation
sector in Malaysia, implementing suitable energy efficiency policy for this sector
may contribute a significant impact on energy consumption in the transportation
sectors and offer great benefits for the consumers, government as well as to the
environment In agreement to this opinion De*icco and Mar! +-..E, states that the
transition toward a more sustainable transportation system can emanate from a suite
of mutually reinforcing policies 9trong efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions
standards would provide the foundation of the technology innovation strategy that
includes pricing reforms, incentive, and voluntary programs *ombined with
enabling @KD, the policies can facilitate mar!et transformation toward advance
technology highway vehicles, efficient air and intercity travel, and renewable fuels
Improvement in regional planning such as in (lang :alley, 6enang and Fohor Bahru
and intermodal capacity would help by reducing travel needs and shifting travel to
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ (
more efficient modes <owever, Dowlatabadi et al +-..3, claims that savings
gasoline +in transportation sector, is attractive, but is not only one of many goals
society see!s with respect to automobilesL the other include increased safety, lower
emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases, and consumers attributes such as
low price, attractiveness, good ride, si7e and performance These goals are inherently
contradictory +Aave, -.E-,, see!ing to achieve one goal generally has unintended
conse"uences in terms of other goals, eg lowering emissions leads to increased cost
Therefore, as a starting point, it is rather imperative to concentrate on land transport
in order to reduce the energy consumption in this sector in order to reduce the
complexity of the study &inal consumption for petroleum product in %22% is shown
in &igure -% and percentage of transportation sector energy use based on fuel types
is presented in &igure -4
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ )
&igure -% &inal consumption for petroleum product in %22% of %2,340 !toe +National
'nergy Balance %224,
&igure -4 6ercentage of transportation sector energy use based on fuel types in %22%
of -4,55- !toe +National 'nergy Balance %224,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ *
'nergy policies and energy technology is a pair and it wor!s simultaneously
and mutually The technologies continually remove the less efficient product from
the mar!et and energy policies are creating transformations in the mar!et As the
consumers, become energy conscious, manufacturers use efficiency as a mar!eting
tool to win their competition in the mar!et To ma!e this program a success, there
should be a good cooperation between the public and private sector ;ith an
appropriate policy, the manufacturers and companies will have time to retool and
invest in designing towards more efficient energy use As a result, the transport
manufacturer will develop more efficient product, which will benefit them, through
increasing demand and competitiveness of the product in the international mar!et
By the combination of suitable policies and technologies, Malaysia will be able to
promote more efficient energy used product and will begin an important mar!et
transformation for the product in the country It is expected that energy efficiency
initiatives for transportation sector can indeed be tapped and expanded in Malaysia to
decelerate the growth of energy consumption in the transportation sector, monetary
savings as well as reducing the environmental impact
#$* Ob+e%tive o, t-e t().
The main ob$ective of research is to ma!e policy recommendations with
views to reduce the energy use and environmental emissions in the transportation
sector in Malaysia In order to achieve this main aim several other ob$ectives have
been identified, and these are=
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ +
To review energy consumption of the transportation sector in 6eninsular
Malaysia +particularly in the (lang :alley,, 9abah and 9arawa!
To identify !ey energy#consuming sub#sectors within the transportation sector
To examine international experiences related to the reduction of energy use in
transport sector
To analy7e historical trend and pro$ect future trend of energy demand and
environmental emissions from the transportation sector
To examine the potential of modal shift to public transport
To examine the feasibility and potential of switching to NG: by commercial
vehicles
To study vehicle efficiency standards
#$/ Contrib(tion o, t-e t().
To proposed recommendations with a view to reduce energy intensity in the
transportation sector in this country The output will be a report entitled M'nergy )se
in the Transportation 9ector of MalaysiaN It will cover all the points mentioned in
the ob$ectives
#$0$ Li1itation o, t-e t().
It is noted that an important "ualification of the results in this study due to
uncertainty in forecasting )ndoubtedly, pursuing the path outlined here would yield
large reductions in energy used and emissions compare to what will ensue in the
absence of policy change Aeaving aside upheaval in global oil supply or other
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %#
economic disruptions, unforeseen technology changes or other developments could
push demand significantly higher or lower than the baseline assumed in the study
<owever, it is believed that the baseline and the data use in this study is more li!ely
to understate the growth in transportation energy demand than to overstate it
Another limitation is, in this study is only involve about 50% respondents from
NG:s taxi driver who not yet used NG as fuel It also interviewed only several
ownerImanager of taxis and buses companies, president or chairman of association of
public transportation ;e also interviewed limited number of managerIowner pump
station, both that have not been sell NG: and the one who did <owever the study
did not discussed about social impact of the policies
#$2 Or'ani3ation o, t-e re4ort
The report is the study on energy use in transportation sector of Malaysia The
study includes several policy recommendations that is suitable to be implemented in
this country The report is divided into eight chapters and the organi7ation of the
report is as follows=
*hapter - is an introduction, which introduces the bac!ground, ob$ectives,
contributions and limitation of the study together with organi7ation of the report
*hapter % presents international experiences on reduction of energy use in
transport sector
*hapter 4 is an analysis on historical and future trend of energy demand and
environmental emissions from the transportation sector
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %%

*hapter 5 deals with the transportation system development and energy
consumption in Malaysia
*hapter 0 examines the feasibility and potential of fuel switching to NG: by
commercial vehicles in Malaysia
*hapter 3 presents a study on fuel economy standard for motor vehicle in
Malaysia
Re,eren%e
)anielis, -. .199*+. (ner"y use for transport in /taly 0 Past trends.
(ner"y Policy 21 .9+, 2993402.
)e5icco, 6., ar7, 6. .1994+. eetin" the ener"y and climate
challen"e for transportation in the %nited $tates. (ner"y Policy 28
.*+, 19*9:12.
Dowlatabadi, <, Aave, AB, @ussell, AG +-..3, A free lunch at higher *A&'O A
review of economic, environmental and social benefits 'nergy 6olicy %5 +4,, %04#
%35
'conomic 6lanning )nit, +%225, The Malaysian 'conomic in &igures, 'conomic
6lanning )nit, 6rime Minister>s Department, 6utra$aya, Malaysia
Aias!as, (, Mavrotas G, Mandara!a, M, Dia!oula!i, D +%222, Decomposition of
industrial *8
%
emissions=The case of 'uropean )nion 'nergy 'conomics %% +5,,
4E4H4.5
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %"
M89T', F +%222, Malaysia initial National *ommunication Ministry of 9cience
and Technology and 'nvironment, (uala Aumpur, Malaysia
National 'nergy Balance %22%, +%224, inistry of (ner"y, 5ommunications
and ultimedia, ;uala &umpur, alaysia.
6lot!in, 9 ' +%22-, 'uropean and Fapanese fuel economy initiatives= what they are,
their prospects for success, their usefulness as a guide for )9 action 'nergy 6olicy
%. +-4,, -2/4H-2E5
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %&
C!A"TER *
INTERNATIONAL EX"ERIENCES ON REDUCTION
OF ENERGY USE IN TRANS"ORT SECTOR
SUMMARY
Transportation is one of the !ey factors for the economy and society Therefore
transport policyma!ers have to create the policies framewor!s that are re"uired for
transport sector to sustain energy with three dimensional ob$ective namely ecology,
economy and social acceptability This chapter discusses international experiences on
reduction of energy use in transportation sector There are many methods and
policies to reduce energy consumption in transport sector, however only several of
them that are suitable to be used in Malaysia will be elaborated in this chapter Those
include fuel economy standard for motor vehicle, fuel economy labels, fuel
switching, fuel taxation, emission abatement, further improvements to vehicles
which are have been implemented in other develop as well as developing countries
The study found that many policies can be implemented directly in Malaysia while
other must be modified to ma!e it suitable in this country &or example fuel economy
label guide program can be directly implemented in this country, however for fuel
economy standard must me modified to ma!e it suitable because Malaysia has it
local vehicle manufacturers that have to be protected
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %'
*$#$ Intro)(%tion
There are many methods and policies to reduce energy consumption in the
transportation sector To provide an impression of the coverage, a number of these
measures are= relocation of enterprises to reduce transport re"uirementsL increase in
density in 7oningL elimination or decrease of fiscal deductibility of travel expensesL
introduction of a four day wor! wee!L improvement of car and truc! enginesL
restriction of energy#consuming options in carsL research and development of
alternative vehicle enginesL production of smaller carsL reduction of taxation for car
poolingL creation of par!ing facilities and reservation of lanes for car poolsL
subsidi7ation of public transportL improvement of "uality of service of public
transportL introduction of toll roadsL taxes on pea! hour travelL speed limitL limit on
highway constructionL par!ing leviesL par!ing limitationL introduction of gasoline
couponsL limiting number of gasoline stationsL and measures to restrict the energy
consumption in the transport sector <owever $ust several of them that is suitable to
be implemented in Malaysia will be discussed in this study
*$*$ "ro'ra1 revie5
In America it has been reported that Americans spend more than P022 million
per day to fuel their cars, 9):s, and other light truc!s Nationally, these vehicles
account for 50 percent of )9 oil consumption which is EE million barrels a day
+mbd, &uel economy standards have improved the efficiency of America>s cars and
truc!s and resulted in dramatic oil savings *orporate Average &uel 'conomy
+*A&', standards passed by *ongress in -./0 led to a /2 percent increase in
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %$
America>s gas mileage over the subse"uent decade The National Academy of
9cience has estimated this saves about %E mbd <owever, *A&' standards have
remained static for almost two decades due to federal gridloc! The current standard
of %/0 miles per gallon +mpg, for automobiles first applied in -.E0, and the %2/
mpg standard for light truc!s is only 2% mpg above the -.E/ standard +but is now set
to rise to %%% mpg by %22/, Besides that, in the city of &os <n"eles, the
state "overnment are allo'in" o'ners of environment friendly
electric and =super ultra lo' emission vehicle> .$%&(#+ to par7 in
metered space for free. ?he concept is to promote the use of
="reen> transportation alternative.
Meanwhile, it has been reported in *anada that bet'een 1990 and 2002,
the amount of ener"y used by the transportation sector increased
by 21 percent, from 1422.9 P6 to 2108.0 P6. <s a result, ener"y9
related !@!s rose by 22 percent, or 29.9 t. Passen"er
transportation 'as the transportation sub9sector that consumed the
most ener"y in 2002 'ith *2 percent, 'hile frei"ht transportation
accounted for 19 percent and oA9road vehicles accounted for :
percent. /mprovements in the overall ener"y eBciency of
passen"er transportation saved :9.4 P6 of ener"y and 1.* t of
related !@!s. )espite the increasin" popularity of lar"er and
heavier li"ht9duty vehicles 'ith "reater horsepo'er, the li"ht9duty
vehicle .cars, li"ht truc7s and motorcycles+ se"ment of passen"er
transportation helped save 2:.4 P6, 'hile air transportation avoided
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %(
21.2 P6. Cesides that, improvements in the ener"y eBciency of
frei"ht transportation led to savin"s of 122.4 P6 of ener"y and 9.1
t of !@!s. ost of the improvements in frei"ht ener"y eBciency
occurred in heavy truc7s and rail.
)ha7al .2001+ on the other hand analyDed the ener"y and
environmental implications of transportation policies in ;athmandu
#alley, Nepal up to the year 2020. From this study, it could be
summariDed that increasin" the avera"e speed of vehicles on the
street to :0 7mEh 'ould reduce total ener"y demands by 22F and
reduce 5G
2
emissions by 2*F. Cesides that, the policy to increase
the share of public transportation is eHpected to brin" 22F of
savin"s in total ener"y demands and 20F of 5G
2
reduction in the
year 201*. ?he other policy that is reported to brin" substantial
implication is the promotion of electric vehicle. /t is reported that
this move 'ould reduce the total ener"y demand and 5G
2
emission
by 20F in the year 201*.
ean'hile, in 5uritiba, CraDil local authorities have developed
an inte"rated plan for transport, urban plannin", infrastructure,
business and local community development. Cy plannin" and
Donin" residential and industrial development alon" so9called
arteries in the proHimity of public transport, transportation needs
have been mana"ed sustainably. ?he arteries are supplemented
'ith a system of rin" roads. $eparate bus lines operate in close
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %)
connection 'ith eHpress buses 'hich enter the residential areas.
?he move made 5uritibas "asoline use per capita lo'er than that
of comparable CraDilian cities. /t also led to annual fuel savin"s of
approHimately 22 million liters.
/n /ndonesia on the other hand, =Clue $7y Pro"ramme> 'as
launched in 1992, for mobile sources, the maIor activities of the
pro"ram are, amon" others, to encoura"e the use of 5N! and &P!
as an alternative cleaner fuel for motor vehicle, to phase9out
leaded "asoline and introduce lo'9sulfur diesel fuel .Jinyantoro,
2001+. <dditionally inspection and maintenance ./K+ pro"ram for
vehicles have been introduced as a Lrst step to'ards improvin"
ambient temperature in the etropolitan 6a7arta. / K pro"ram in
"asoline fueled cars could result to a Lve percent savin"s in fuel
consumption and could reduce the emissions of @5 .1*F+ and 5G
.*F+. /n diesel9fueled car, / K pro"ram could reduce emission of
particulate matter by :*F. <t present, / K pro"ram are voluntary
but 'ill become compulsory for all vehicle re"istered in
etropolitan 6a7arta in the near future.
/n Jestern <ustralia, the state "overnment has devised a plan
to move freight transportation more efficiently between the port and industrial areas
This will see the use of rail into &remantle 6ort increase from three per cent to 42 per
cent and reduce the number of truc!s on their roads The 6lanning and Infrastructure
portfolio has also reduced the number of six#cylinder vehicles by -0 per cent since
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %*
%224 and has also increased the number of Toyota 6rius hybrids in the fleet to -3
Meanwhile, from &ebruary %22- to Fune %225, the 9tate Government has spent more
than P02million on cycling infrastructure, with another PEmillion earmar!ed this
year As a result, the number of people using the 6erth Bicycle Networ! has doubled
during the last five years Additionally the Government has embar!ed on the 9tateQs
biggest#ever public transport pro$ect#the P-0billion New Metro@ail 6ro$ect, New
Metro@ail will carry almost 40,222 people each wee!day and ta!e %0,222 cars off
their freeways It is estimated that wor!#related patronage on the 9outhern 9uburbs
@ailway alone will save almost -0million litres of fuel each year +Mactiernan, %225,
Meanwhile vehicle emissions in Myanmar are expected to contribute
significantly to air pollution problems which are increasing at a rate of E/-4 Gg *8
%
e"uivalent per year In Myanmar, motor vehicle inspection is pursued by the @oad
Transport Administration Department of the Ministry of @ail Transportation
Although Myanmar does not yet have any vehicle emission standards, the
department has adopted standard re"uirements and testing procedure for motor
vehicle inspection The re"uirements include among others, bra!e minimum
efficiency, exhaust emission +smo!e,, noise, and depth of tyre groove, which are
based from the existing A9'AN standards +Myint, %22-,
In (orea, motor vehicle registration nationwide has increased -E- times, from
0%/,/%. in -.E2 to .,004,23% in -..3 The passenger car ownership increased %//
times since -.E2, from %5.,-2% to 3,E.4,344 in -..3 This figure reflects an
increase of an average %4-1 per year The road system, which handles more than
.21 of the countryQs transportation, has been intimately connected to (oreaQs rapid
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %+
economic growth and land development since -.32s when it began to expand
dramatically In preparation for the %-st century, the government is eagerly pursuing
a New @oad 6olicy, with the goal of building a safe, convenient and fast road
system To achieve this goal, the government plans to reduce the travel time to $ust
half a day between any points in the country in the early %222s The government
also plans to reduce the access time to any road networ! system from anywhere in
the country to less than thirty minutes There will be seven north#south trun! routes
and nine east#west trun! routes, totalling 3,-32 !m Meanwhile, to meet the rapidly
increasing container traffic, two new terminals, 6usanQs fourth phase and
(wangyangQs first phase, which house four berths each are opened in -..E It is
predicted that (oreaQs container handling capacity will still lag behind the maritime
traffic demand of the %-st century The (orean government has also decided to
develop a new container terminal located about %0 !m west of the existing port This
pro$ect will provide %5 modern berth terminals The construction for the first phase
began in late -../, and the first -2 berth terminals will commence operations before
%220 Additionally in order to facilitate the flow of cargoes and information in all
areas of trade, the Ministry of Maritime Affairs K &ishery has been operating the
'DI +'lectronic Data Interchange, system on a commercial basis since Fuly -..0
The 'DI networ! +68@T#MI9, provides 'DI services by connecting government
agencies, shipping companies, stevedoring companies, truc!ing companies,
forwarders, and terminals
In Malaysia, the government embar!ed on the construction of a integrated
public transport system, emphasi7ing the environment#friendly features The
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "#
government has implemented two phases of Aight @ail Transit +A@T, systems and
the fuel efficient electrified double trac! commuter service The improved transport
services is viewed that it will change the pattern of the existing transportation usage,
reducing number of private vehicles on the road thus reducing fuel consumption
which lead to reduction of emission Apart from that, the Ministry of &inance has
allocated tax exemption on !its and necessary components for converting vehicle to
utili7e natural gas &urthermore, the road tax of vehicles using only natural gas is
discounted by 021 of the prevailing rate while %01 was given to bi#fuel vehicles
Moreover, special capital allowance was also given to companies operating mono#
gas buses and for NG: petrol station entrepreneur +Norhayati K ?u7lina, %22-,
*$/ Tran4ortation 4o6i%. in e6e%te) %o(ntrie
Mobility is one of the !ey factors for the economy and society Transport
policyma!ers have to create the statutory and policy framewor!s that are re"uired if
transport needs are to be met ta!ing account of sustainability in its three dimensions
+ecology, economy and social acceptability, In the transport sector, land transport,
especially road transport, can ma!e a significant contribution towards reducing
vehicle emissions if improved fuels and engines are introduced This scope for
improvement is being exploited <owever, if the *8
%
emission reduction targets
agreed on in (yoto protocol are to be met, even more has to be done for the transport
sector The Government is thus supporting the search for a fuel of the future based on
renewable energy and having extremely low emissions In con$unction with further
improvements to fuels and vehicles on the basis of fossil resources, the wide#scale
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "%
use of renewable energy in transport and in the production of fuel will ma!e it
possible to ta!e a big step towards more sustainable transport Moreover, the need of
such policy which will be implemented on fossil fuels usage is becomes much
necessary Among the countries which have been implemented the policy of fuels
usage on transport sector are some 'uropean countries, )9A, Australia, Fapan, etc
*$/$#$ T-ai6an)
According to Thailand 6rime Minister Tha!sin 9hinawatra, Thailand will more
concern on energy policy on fossil fuel started at this year As the subsidies on petrol
prices come to an end this year, Thailand government is also trying to set a suitable
policy for energy and fuel conservation, to !eep the economy and the countryQs
coffers in good shape 6aradoxically, the government is letting petrol prices float and
will continue subsidi7ing diesel at least through to the end of the cool season That is
the way Thailand can minimi7e the impact of higher fuel prices in the short term
+Diesel News, %224,
*$/$*$ Sin'a4ore
In 9ingapore the rapid economic development in the last three decades has led
to increased demand for land transportation which is presently heavily dependent on
oil As a small city#state with no indigenous supply of conventional energy resources,
9ingapore needs to constantly promote energy conservation and to explore the use of
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ""
alternative fuels At the same time, the 9ingaporean government is also concerned
with the environmental problems associated with rapid industriali7ation :arious
measures and recommendations on promoting clean technology, protection of the
local and global environment, reduction of *8
%
and 98
%
emissions, etc, were
announced and documented in the 9ingapore Green 6lan +9ingapore Ministry of
'nvironment, -..4, 8ther policy which has been used in 9ingapore is to provide
financial incentives to promote the use alternative fuels and electric vehicles This is
based on a reduction of imported vehicle tax and vehicle road tax +6oh and Ang,
-...,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "&
*$/$/$ E(ro4ean Co(ntrie
<igh oil prices and rising fuel taxes have lead an explosion of fury across the
'uropean continent, resulting in protests and bloc!ades of depots and refineries
&ollowing the recent oil price rise, the 'uropeans have finally reali7ed what a
massive burden fuel taxes place on their budgets In response to the peopleQs outcry
for relief, most 'uropean leaders have arrogantly dismissed re"uests for reduced fuel
taxes, claiming that such an action would be RpanderingR Indeed many have argued
that the continuation of massive fuel taxes is a tough but RprincipledR and virtuous
policy
Nevertheless, the fact is fuel taxes in the )( and 'urope is punitively high
According to a 9ept --th editorial in InvestorQs Business Daily, entitled RThe &rench
are 8nto 9omethingR, taxes comprise P%E% of the P52/ gallon in &rance, P%03 of
the P4.- gallon in Germany, and P%04 of the P4./ gallon of fuel in Italy In the
)9, fuel taxes comprise about 4. cents of the average P-35 gallon of gas
<owever, an ac"uaintance in 'ngland releases a shoc!ing note= R6art of the tax is
pegged to price, so an increase in fuel prices raises the tax 6rices are now some .2
pence per liter, over P322 per gallon, with P022 of that tax The average Britain
pays over P-22 a wee! to run his car, and some PE2 of it goes to the governmentR
+*apitalism Maga7ine, %222, 8f course, Blair and other 'uropean leaders have
numerous explanations for why high fuel taxes are so necessary and desirable 8ne
hired gun, a professor of economics named Andrew 8swald, in an editorial RThe
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "'
'conomic *ase for <igh &uel Taxes= published 9ept -%, %222 by The &inancial
Times listed no less than eight reasons, which have been summari7ed as follows=
+i, If government did not ta!e consumersQ money, 86'* would
+ii, 6eople need to be able to plan for high fuel taxes with certainty # lower taxes
might surprise them
+iii, It is unfair to cut taxes now, because humans are too selfish to volunteer to pay
higher fuel taxes if the oil price fell
+iv, &uel is a good thing to tax because people will !eep buying it anyway
+v, A tax on fuel is a well#deserved punishment for oilQs pollution
+vi, A fuel tax is the next best thing to road#use taxation
+vii, The fuel tax punishes the rich with cars while helping the poor without cars
+viii, 8ur grandchildren might not have enough oil if we donQt tax it highly
*$/$0$ 7a4an
Fapan is considering stricter fuel efficiency standards for cars as part of
sweeping revisions of environmental policy to curb pollution and climate change
Transport Ministry official ?u$i Matsu7a!i said the ministryQs proposal would force
automa!ers to produce passenger cars and cargo truc!s that spew less carbon dioxide
and other greenhouse gases, which are believed to cause global warming )nder the
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "$
ministryQs current guidelines, automa!ers must ma!e passenger cars -2 percent more
fuel efficient and less polluting by %2-2, compared to %222 Truc!s are exempt from
such standards
*$/$2$ A(tra6ia
Due to its geographical nature Australia is a highly transport dependent society
Despite significant efforts to promote the benefits of public transport, its use has
declined while the affordability of motor cars has continued to improve and car
ownership and use are rising *onsumers want affordable and safe cars, cheap fuels,
ample par!ing, congestion free roads and environmentally friendly vehicles as long
as they don>t have to pay for it As a community they are hyper sensitive about
petrol prices and as we have seen a few cents a litre rise at the petrol pump can cause
politicians to become wea! at the !nees *onversely Governments &ederally to the
tune of P-%0billionIyear through excise and 9tates receipts of P%/billionnIyear are
!eenly aware of the revenue generated from petroleum products +'nvironment News
9ervice, %222,
According to Dr 9harman 9tone, 6arliamentary 9ecretary to 'nvironment
Minister @obert <ill RIn 'uropean countries there are many smaller cars on the
roads, which have highly efficient motors driven by the cleaner, better "uality fuel
These smaller cars go further on a liter of fuel and they have less effect on the air
"ualityR
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "(
The transport sector is the largest single contributor to AustraliaQs greenhouse
gas emissions, accounting for almost -3 percent of the /%3 million tonnes of carbon
dioxide pumped into the environment every year The new rules will mean higher
octane, lower sulphur content fuel This should help reduce pollution as well as cut
greenhouse gas emissions Australia is struggling to meet international commitments
to limit emissions of carbon dioxide and other climate warming gases to eight
percent of -..2 levels 9uch emissions have actually grown by -3 percent The &uel
Suality 9tandards Bill forms part of the Australian governmentQs AP- billion
+)9P052,222, greenhouse plan !nown as Measures for a Better 'nvironment
pac!age The new law in Australia will introduce tougher penalties to protect
consumers and environment +Australian Greenhouse 8ffice, %225,
*$/$8$ In)ia
According to a Times of India report, IndiaQs government has been announced
its final conclusions regarding the Rauto#fuel policy reportR delivered by an expert
committee headed by IndiaQs top science advisor This report recommended fuel
neutrality +with ultra#low sulfur diesel by %2-2, rather than the *NG monopoly
scheme for ma$or cities pushed by IndiaQs 9upreme *ourt and anti#diesel RgreenR
group, *enter for 9cience K 'nvironment +*9', *urrently, the comprehensive study
or results still yet to publish regarding this policy <owever, this policy was aimed to
reduce the incentive on diesel oil shared to other alternative fuels
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ")
*$9$9$ Fran%e
&rance policyma!ers so far have implicitly assumed that ade"uate supplies of
NG would be available for transport *learly, NG is one of the possible alternative
fuel that produce ma$or reductions in transport oil use, NG as transport fuels is still
available in large "uantities in the years %2%2 This now seems unli!ely The I'A has
recently analy7ed world energy prospects out to %2%2 and beyond +I'A, -..E, &or
NG, it was assumed that ultimate reserves, both already produced and still to be
produced, were %32 btoe, slightly less than the 4-2 btoe estimated for oil ;orld
demand for NG is growing faster than that for oil as gas increases its share of energy
in the developed countries and gas grids are introduced in an increasing number of
industriali7ing countries
*$/$:$ Ne5 ;ea6an)
The New Gealand example is instructive A ma$or shift to NG#based transport
fuels occurred in the -.E2s, based on *NG and synthetic petrol At its pea!, NG
supplied 421 of New Gealand>s transport fuels Today, the figure is only about -21,
and will decline to near 7ero by %2-5, the expected date of gas field exhaustion,
assuming no imports +9tatistics New Gealand, %222,
*$/$<$ Net-er6an)
Based on information provided by the Dutch Auto A6G association in -...,
the Dutch vehicle ma!er +DA&, considers *NG +natural gas, to be very well suited
for use in a private vehicle but autogas +ie A6G, to be the best fuel for buses Their
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "*
reasons for this choice are= no need for such a big tan!, the composition is clearly
defined and there is no need to have the gas compressed in an expensive compression
station
*$/$#=$ "-i6i44ine
The 6hilippines first attempted to commerciali7e li"uid biofuels for motor
vehicles following the oil shoc!s of the -./2sL unfortunately, the ambitious program
was abandoned during the political crisis of the mid#-.E2s Today biofuels are
receiving renewed interest in the 6hilippines due to a combination of economic and
environmental factors The principal economic incentive is the reduction of
dependence on imported petroleum This issue is particularly true for the transport
sector which is almost entirely dependent on oil @eduction of *8
%
emissions
resulting from fossil fuel use is one of the primary environmental considerations
+6hilippine Department of 'nvironment and Natural @esources, %222, As with the
biofuels program of the early -.E2s, a biodiesel program can help insulate the
6hilippines from world oil price fluctuations, and simultaneously revitali7e stagnant
sectors of the economy These benefits may very well enough to compensate for the
relatively high production cost of biodiesel Implementation of carbon trading
through the *lean Development Mechanism can also be employed to subsidi7e such
a program <owever, this particular program has been introduced to the government
meeting for further considerations in the future +6hilippine Department of 'nergy,
%22%,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "+
*$0$ Tran4ort Re'(6ation
Table %- lists various international regulations and or guidelines aimed at
improving new vehicle fuel efficiency for selected countries +8'*D Ministry of
Transport, %222, There are of course many other guidelines and regulations relating
to efforts to reduce emissions by the transport sector but only those directly related
the study that have been listed in this section
*$2$ Vo6(ntar. a'ree1ent or 4ro'ra1
The costs +both financial and environmental, of regulatory measure can
outweigh the benefits of that program In the case of fuel efficiency standards, the
cost of developing and implementing technological advances and the consumers>
tendency to use some of the savings from reduced fuel consumption to drive further
+the Mrebound effectN, could outweigh the actual fuel savings achieved :oluntary
agreements program can be an alternative means of achieving improved fuel
efficiency Table %% lists a number of examples of voluntary agreement program
+8'*D Ministry of Transport, %222,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ &#
Table %- 'xamples of transport regulations in selected countries
*ountry @egulation description
*7ech @epublic 9pecific fuel consumption targets agreed and
implemented
Fapan &uel efficiency targets for %222 set, average E01
improvement over fiscal -..% levels
01 target for average improvement in fuel efficiency for
petrol truc!s
@ussian &ederation Development of vehicle fuel efficiency standards
proposed
9weden Target for private car average fuel consumption of 34
liters per -22 !m by %220 has been proposed 9ince new
car fuel economy was E5 litresI-22!m in -..4i, this
implies an improvement of %01 over the period -..4 to
%220 :olvo has committed itself to a %01 reduction in
average fuel consumption by %220
9wit7erland &ederal Government 8rdinance on reducing the specific
fuel consumption of cars @e"uirement is for a -01
reduction in average fuel consumption in the period -..3
to %22- +4%1 per year,
)nited 9tates *orporate Average &uel 'fficiency +*A&', standards
Implemented in -./0, came into effect for cars in -./E
Aast revised in -..% currently %/0 mpg +E00 litresI-22
!m,
'uropean )nion *ommission *ommunication *8M +.0, 3E., %2
December -..0, *ouncil *onclusion of %0 Fune -..3
8b$ective is to achieve an average of -%2 gmI!m *8%
emissions +approx 0 lI-22!m, for new cars by %220
Target is aimed at 'uropean made vehicles, but plans are
to extend the targets to imports as well
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ &%
Table %% 'xamples of transport voluntary agreement programs in selected countries
*ountry *ountry :oluntary agreement programs
Austria Agreement with motor vehicle manufacturers to improve fuel
efficiency to 4 litres I -22 !m +envisaged measure,
*anada :oluntary agreement with each of the manufacturers on
increasing fuel efficiency of new vehicles
&rance &rench car manufacturers have set a target of cutting average
*8
%
emissions to -02 gmI!m by %220
Germany Agreement with domestic vehicle manufacturers on fuel
economy *alls for a %01 reduction in average fuel
consumption between -..2 and %220 +a rate of -.1 a year,
9weden :olvo has committed itself to a %01 reduction in average fuel
consumption of its cars sold in the ') by %220
)nited (ingdom )( manufacturers are committed to meeting the A*'A target
of a -21 improvement in fuel efficiency by %220
'uropean )nion Agreement reached between the 'uropean *ommission and
A*'A to cut *8
%
emissions down to -52 gmI!m
approximately 0/ litresI-22 !m, by %22E There is also a
commitment to review emissions targets in %224 with a view
towards achieving the *ommission>s ob$ective of -%2 gmI!m
+approximately 0 litresI-22 !m, by %2-%
*$8$ Air >(a6it. 4o6i%ie
In addition to carbon dioxide, vehicle usage results in other gas emissions,
many of which have implications for local air "uality Three of these are covered by
the 'uro standards= carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides, all
measured separately for petrol and diesel cars, and also particulate matter for diesel
cars only tabulated in Table %4
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ &"
Table %4 'mission limits for new cars
Aimit value +gI!m,
Mass of
carbon
monoxide
+*8,
Mass of
hydrocarbons
+<*s,
Mass of
oxides of
nitrogen
+Nox,
*ombined mass of
hydrocarbons
+<*s, and oxides of
nitrogen
+<* T Nox,
Mass of
particulate
matter
+6M,
9tage I -..4U
Dir$&%iv$ ./011/0EEC
6etrol
Diesel
4-3
4-3
#
#
#
#
--4
--4
#
2-E
9tage II -../U
Dir$&%iv$ .10/'0EC
6etrol
Diesel, indirect
in$ection
Diesel, direct in$ection
%%
-2
-2
#
#
#
#
#
#
20
2/
2.
#
22E
2-2
9tage III %222
Dir$&%iv$ .203.0EC
6etrol
Diesel
-2
20
2-
#
22E
2%0
#
24
#
22%0
9tage I: %220
Dir$&%iv$ .203.0EC
6etrol
Diesel
-2
20
2-
#
22E
2%0
#
24
#
22%0
9tage III came into force from - Fanuary %222 +Directive .EI3., and stage I:
comes into force from-st Fanuary %220 +These stages are often referred o as 'uro 4
and 'uro 5 respectively, These are maximum permitted mean emissions and as the
table indicates, they are being tightened up over the four legislated stages Diesel
produces about -01 more *8
%
per liter than petrol, but diesel engines on the whole
produce less *8
%
per !m because the diesel engine is inherently more efficient than
the petrol one At the same time, diesel#engine vehicles emit around ten times the
mass of fine particles and up to twice the oxides of nitrogen of comparable petrol#
fuelled vehicles 6olicy needs, therefore, to be a balanced one, to reflect the impacts
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ &&
of both local air "uality change and global climate change, recogni7ing that fuels
have different benefits and disadvantages In 'urope, the Directive is part of a trio of
policy approaches, concerned with climate change These include the voluntary
agreement to reduce missions by technical improvements to new cars and fiscal
measures In the )(, the fiscal measures include differentiated vehicle excise duty,
related on carbon dioxide emissions, and reduced company car allowances
*$9$ F(e6 e%ono1.
This chapter compares existing and planned vehicle fuel economy labelling
schemes in several selected countries 9ome of the planned schemes within 'uropean
countries are refer to earlier drafts of the ') Directive This is an area of policy that
should considered for every countries around especially for developing countries
that have been rapidly increase in the number of vehicles The simultaneously survey
in this section gives a dated snapshot of the current situation in the country 9o some
of the data given in this study section might be have already change
:ehicle labelling schemes have been in existence for several years in 9weden
and the )nited 9tates +both since -./0, and in the )( +since -.E4, The American
scheme was amended in -..2 and the *anadian scheme in -..E, in the light of
consumer feedbac! There is little evidence of the way these schemes influenced
consumer purchases 9ummary of fuel economy energy labels for motor vehicle in
several selected countries is given in Table %5 +Brenda et al, %222, The fuel
economy label for several selected countries is given &igs %- H %.
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ &'
Table %5 &uel economy labeling schemes in selected countries
A(tria A(tra6ia Be6'i(1 Cana)a Den1ar& Net-er6an) S5e)en S5it3er6an) USA EU
Dire%tive
"6anne) or
E?itin'
6lanned 6lanned 6lanned 'xisting 6lanned 6lanned for
attachment to
cars#existing
on website
'xisting 6lanned
Temporary label
in meantime
'xisting Directive
-...I.5I'*
adopted
S%o4e As
directive
6assenger cars,
maybe extension to
light commercial
vehicles, 5x5
As
directive
New
cars,
vans,
light duty
truc!s
As directive As directive All
passenger
cars
As directive New cars,
vans, light
duty truc!s
New
passenger
cars
Intro)(%tion
)ate
As
directive
%222 As
directive
-..E - Fan %222 As directive -.// As directive but
temporary label
prior to that
-./0 To be
implemented
in ') M9 by
Fanuary -E
th
%22-
Man)ator.@ ?es ?es ?es No ?es ?es No No= Temporary ?es ?es
Unit o,
%on(14tion
AI-22!m AI-22!m AI-22!m AI-22!m
Lmpg
mpg AI-22!m AI-22!m Not
shownLAI-22!m
in guide
mpg AI-22!m or
!mIl or
combination
Co14arion
b. abo6(te
1ea(re or
re6ative %a6e
@elative
by si7e
and sales
weighted
Absolute but
perhaps label
changed to
appliance star style
+relative,
@elative by
si7e and
sales
weighted
Absolute Absolute
comparing
all cars
@elative by
si7e and sales
weighted
Absolute No scale shown
but MefficientN
designation with
sales weighted
comparison for all
same weight
No scale but
range of
consumption
shown for
cars of same
si7e
No
re"uirement
for
comparison
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ &$
Table %5 *ontinue
A(tria A(tra6ia Be6'i(1 Cana)a Den1ar& Net-er6an) S5e)en S5it3er6an) USA EU Dire%tive
Co14arion
4ara1eter
width C
length
None width C
length
None None width C length None weight si7e class NIA
Ot-er
1ea(re o,
%on(14tion
As
directive
None As
directive
Annual
fuel cost
+focus of
label,
(ronaIyr
(ronaI%2222
!m
(ronaI32222
!m
*ostI02222!m
*ostIlitre
None None None )nits can be
in gallons
and miles if
compatible
with Directive
E2I-E-I''*
CO* Intention
to include
values
No As
directive
No ?es +g
*8%I!m,
?es +g
*8%I!m,
?es
+g
*8%I!m,
Not shown
but
in guide +g
I!m,
No H
intended
for the
guide
*8%
emissions in
gI!m
Environ1ent
a6 Ran&in'
No No No No No No ?es,
ran!ing -
to 4
No In guide by
A*'''
No
"rinte)
G(i)e
Intended ?es ?es ?es ?es ?es ?es ?es ?es ?es
On6ine G(i)e Intended ?es ?es ?es Intended ?es ?es Intended ?es Not re"uired
but
considered
Fi%a6
inte'ration
?es # with
fuel
consumpti
on tax
+No:A,
No Intended No ?es with fuel
consumption
tax
+green
owner,
?es with
r$4a%iv$
consumption
;ith
enviro
rating
Intended H
either to *8%
or fuel
consumption
No
Ne5 %ar
o6) to ,6eet
b(.er
-01
maximum
-2#-01 # -21 # -21 # V 01 -21 NIA
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ &(
&igure %- Austrian draft fuel economy label
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ &)
&igure %% Australian draft fuel consumption labels
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ &*
&igure %4 *anadian fuel economy label
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ &+
&igure %5 Danish draft fuel consumption label
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ '#
&igure %0 9wedish fuel economy label
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ '%
&igure %3 9wiss draft fuel economy label
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ '"
&igure %/ )9 fuel consumption label
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ '&
&igure %E )( fuel economy label
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ''
&igure %. 'nvironmental information guide
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ '$
*$:$ Con%6(ion
There are not many policies around the world have been implemented for
reducing transport sector energy use other than for motor vehicle This may be
because the technology replacement for airplane and ship not so progressive such as
for motor vehicle There was a replacement for railway especially in Fapan and
&rance, however the replacement was not really related to energy but more to
increasing speed of mass railway transport Therefore the study is more favored to
motor vehicle since they are the ma$or energy consumer in the transportation sector
in this country 9everal countries are using the opportunity to experiment with
innovative approaches that go considerably beyond this minimum level This is in
order to reduce the contribution that new cars are ma!ing to environmental
degradation and climate change The focus on fuel economy provides substantial
benefits to consumers, particularly at a time of rising real oil prices and concerns
about the cost of petrol
As a result of the proposed fuel economy standard and fuel economy label,
consumers will be able to differentiate efficient vehicle with ease This will create
healthy competition among vehicle manufactures to come up with a more efficient
vehicle gradually 'ventually if these measures are implemented, it will bring great
benefit to government, consumers as well as to the environment 8verall,
dependency on petrol fuel could be reduced and greenhouse gas emission could be
mitigated Additionally, the fuel subsidy on petrol and diesel by government in the
future should be withdrawnL consumers will not pay more ton efficient vehicle unless
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ '(
it proven will be using lesser amount of fuel and benefit them due to higher cost of
fuel
Re,eren%e
Australian Greenhouse 8ffice +%225, Australia Green <ouse @eport#+%22-,
http=IIwwwgreenhousegovauI
Brenda Boardman, Nic! Ban!s, <oward @ (irby, 9arah (eay#Bright, Barry F
<utton 9tephen G 9tradling, +%222, *hoosing *leaner *ars= The @ole 8f Aabels
And Guides 'nvironmental *hange Institute, )niversity of 8xford, )(
)ha7al $. .2001+. /mplications of transportation policies on ener"y
and environment in ;athmandu #alley, Nepal. (ner"y Policy,
#olume 11, /ssue 1:, Pa"es 1:9191*02
<ill, N; and Aarsen, @6 +-..2, Draft evaluation of the &ederal fuel economy
information program Interim @eport Argonne National Aaboratory )9A
I'A +-..E, ;orld 'nergy 6rospects to %2%2, 8'*DII'A, 6aris
Mactiernan, A +%22-, ;estern Australia moving to reduce oil dependence, ;estern
Australia Dept 6lanning K Infrastructure
Myint, 9 +%22-, Transport 'nergy )se and :ehicle 'missions in Myanmar, A9'AN
energy bulletin, A9'AN *entre for 'nergy, Fa!arta :ol 0, No -
Norhayati (, ?uslina M? +%22-, :ehicle 'missions, Measures and *hallenges in
Malaysia @oad Transporttion 9ector, A9'AN energy bulletin, A9'AN *entre for
'nergy, Fa!arta :ol 0, No -
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ')
8'*D Ministers of Transport +-../, *8
%
'missions from Transport, 'uropean
*onference of Ministers of Transport, 8'*D
6hilippine Department of 'nergy +%22%, 6hilippine 'nergy 6lan %22%H%2--
Manila
6hilippine Department of 'nvironment and Natural @esources +%222, Implementing
@ules and @egulations of @A E/5.W*lean Air Act of -..., Manila
6ir!ey, D, McNutt, B, <emphill, F and Dulla, @ +-.E%,, *onsumer response to fuel
economy information H alternative sources, uses and formats 9A' Technical 6aper
E%2/.%, ;arrendale, 6a, )9A
6oh (A and Ang B; +-..., Transportation fuels and policy for 9ingapore= an
A<6 planning approach, Fournal *omputer K Industrial 'ngineering
9ingapore Ministry of 'nvironment +-..4, 9ingapore Green 6lan @eport on by
Ministry of 'nvironment 9ingapore 9ingapore
9tatistics New Gealand +%222, New Gealand 8fficial ?earboo! %222, -2%
nd
edition,
G6 6ublications, ;ellington, NG
;idyantoro, T +%22-, 'nergy 'fficiency Towards 9ustainable Transport and *lean
Air in Indonesia, A9'AN energy bulletin, A9'AN *entre for 'nergy, Fa!arta :ol 0,
No -
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ '*
C!A"TER /
!ISTORICAL AND FUTURE TREND OF ENERGY
DEMAND AND ENVIRONMENTAL EMISSIONS FROM
T!E TRANS"ORTATION SECTOR
SUMMARY
'missions in the transportation sector produce adverse effects on the
environment that influent human health, organism growth, climatic changes and so
on The (yoto protocol by the )nited Nation &ramewor! *onvention on *limate
change +)N&**, in December -../, prescribed legally binding greenhouse gas
emission target about 01 below their -..2 level About -32 countries including
Malaysia now adopt this protocol The transportation sector is the main contributors
for emission in the country In order to calculate the potential emission by this
activity, the type of fuel use should be identified The study found that there are no
radical changes of fuel used for transportation sector in Malaysia The data shown
that fuel type use are 041 of petrol, 451 of diesel, -41 of AT& 2231 Natural Gas,
and 2241 of electricity in year %222 to 531 of petrol, 5%1 of diesel, -%1 of AT&,
2%.1 Natural Gas and only 22/1 of electricity in the year of %2%2 The calculation
is based on emissions for unit fuel used and the type of fuel use and energy demand
in transportation sector The study found that, the transportation sector has
contributed huge emissions from their activities in this country and the change on
fuel type is necessary to change the pattern of emission production
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ '+
/$#$ Intro)(%tion
8ver the past decades, it has been observed that there is an increasing
atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such carbon dioxide +*8
%
, and other
emissions that give negative impact to the environment such as sulfur dioxide +98
%
,,
nitrogen oxide +N8
x
, and carbon monoxide +*8, 8ne of the main contributors of
these gases is generated by transportation sector because a conventional vehicle still
using fossil fuels as their main energy sources Burning fossil fuels is releases the
emissions such as mentioned gasses which !nown can cause greenhouse gas
emission effect, acid rain and other negative impact to environmental and
human!ind
*8
%
is a colorless, odorless gas and produced when any form of carbon is
burned in an excess of oxygen Due to this reason, *8
%
greenhouse effect in the
world has been enhanced This means that the atmosphere is trapping more heat that
has to escape to space This enhancement has lin!ed the greenhouse effect is causing
global warming *8
%
is the largest contributor of greenhouse effect out of all the
gasses produce by human activities
98
%
is a colorless gas, from the family of sulfur oxides +98
x
, It reacts on the
surface of a variety of atmosphere solid particles and can be oxidi7ed within
atmosphere water droplets &ossil fuel combustion is the main sources of 98
%
produce by human activities
N8
x
are a collective term used of two types of oxides of nitrogen namely nitric
oxide +N8, and nitrogen dioxide +N8
%
, N8 is a colorless, flammable gas with a
slight odor N8
%
is a nonflammable gas with a detectable smell and in certain
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ $#
concentration will highly toxic, which is in longtime can cause serious lung damage
N8
%
is plays a ma$or role in the atmospheric reactions that produce o7one or smog
In the atmosphere, N8
%
will mix with water vapor producing nitric acid and
deposited as acid rain
*8 is a colorless, odorless, poisonous gas 'xposure to *8 reduces the bloodQs
ability to carry oxygen *8 is a product of incomplete burning of hydrocarbon#based
fuels *8 consists of a carbon atom and an oxygen atom lin!ed together During
normal combustion, each atom of carbon in the burning fuel $oins with two atoms of
oxygen forming a harmless gas ;hen there is a lac! of oxygen to ensure complete
combustion of the fuel, each atom of carbon lin!s up with only one atom of oxygen
forming *8 gas
Malaysia planning to reduce the production of *8
%
, 98
%
, N8
x
and *8 in the
country but the data of production of these gasses is unavailable therefore the study
attempts to estimate potential production of these gases from transportation sector in
this country ;ith exact figure of these emissions, Malaysia can contribute to
undermine the disaster caused by these gases by maximi7ing of using renewable fuel
9imilar study on emissions from electricity generation in Malaysia has been
discussed by Mahlia +%22%,
/$*$ S(rve. Data
The data used for this study are the fuel consumption data, distribution of fuel
type for transportation sector data and emissions of *8
%
, 98
%
, N8
x
and *8 from
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ $%
fossil fuel for unit fuel consumption in +gIGF, These data are collected from the
National 'nergy Balance +%22%, All of the survey data are tabulated in Tables 4-,
4% and 44
Table 4- &inal energy use by transportation sector
?ear Total
+!toe,
-.E2 %,4.E
-.E0 4,5//
-..2 0,4E/
-..0 /,E%/
-..3 E,.0-
-../ -2,%2-
-..E .,/.4
-... --,4.4
%222 -%,2/-
%22- -4,-4/
%22% -4,55%
Type of fossil fuel used in transportation sector in Malaysia are include, Natural
Gas, Aviation gasoline +Avgas,, Motor gasoline +Mogas,, Aviation Turbine &uel
+ATF or Avtur,, Diesel oil and fuel oil Natural Gas fuel is a mixture of gaseous
hydrocarbons +mainly methane, which occurs either in gas fields or in association
with crude oil in oil fields Aviation gasoline +Avgas, is a special blended grade of
gasoline for use in aircraft engines of the piston type Distillation range normally
falls within 42
o
* and %22
o
* Motor gasoline +Mogas, 6etroleum distillate for used as
fuel in spar!#ignition internal combustion engines Distillation range is within 42
o
*
and %02
o
* AT& or Avtur is fuel for use in aviation gas turbines mainly refined from
(erosene Distillation range within -02
o
* and %02
o
* Diesel oil is Distillation falls
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ $"
within %22
o
* to 452
o
* Diesel fuel for high speed diesel engines +ie automotive, are
more critical on fuel "uality than diesel for stationary and marine diesel engines
Marine oil usually consists of a blend of diesel oil and some residual +asphalt,
material Meanwhile, fuel oil is heavy distillates, residues or blends is used as fuel
for production of heat and power &uel oil production at the refinery is essentially a
matter of selective blending of available components rather than of special
processing &uel oil viscosities vary widely depending on the blend of distillates and
residues Transportation sector energy use based on fuel types is given in Table 4%
+National 'nergy Balance, %22%,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ $&
Table 4% Transportation sector energy use based on fuel types
?ear &uel Type +!toe,
6etrol Diesel AT& &uel oil NG 'lect
-.E2 -%.3 E5/ %02 # 2 2
-.E0 %20/ -24% 4E3 # 2 2
-..2 %EE. -E%3 3%E 5- 2 2
-..0 55// %-3E --0E -/ 0 2
-..3 0-3- %5-/ -444 4% 5 -
-../ 00/5 4-23 -54/ /0 0 -
-..E 0E5. %4-- -3-E . 5 -
-... 3//E 4-/5 -5%4 -4 2 5
%222 34/E 5-24 -0/5 5 / 5
%22- 3E%2 5045 -/3% 0 -5 0-/
%22% 3.52 53E2 -/E0 5 %E 5
The summation of total energy use in Table 4% is not very similar to the data in
Table 4- is because the are some other types of fuel are not included in the table
such as A6G and Avgas which have been used for transport fuel in a very little
"uantity Time series data for these types of fuels is also unavailable and difficult to
predict
The type of e"uivalency in energy data in Table 4- and Table 4% is given by
tones oil e"uivalent +toe, unit across different type of fuels Toe generally refers to
energy content to one metric ton of crude oil The international table standard defines
one toe as having a net calorific value of -2 Gcal There are different definitions in
the literature for ton oil e"uivalent The one used in this study is the conversion
factor that - toe X -2 Gcal X 5-E3E GF +'IA, %225L I'A, %22%L )N, -..-,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ $'
9ince the emission per unit energy conversion as well as the usage of electricity
and fuel oil in transportation sector in this country is very little compare to other
types of fuel that are 2241 each, therefore emission from these fuel are can be
neglected 'ven though Natural Gas also has very little percentage compare to other
fuel but this fuel will be considered in this calculation because from the data given in
Table 4%, Natural Gas seem to be increased rapidly in the future 'mission from
fossil fuel per GF energy used by transportation is presented in Table 44
Table 44 *8
%
, 98
%
, N8
x
and *8 emission from fossil fuel per GF energy
use by transportation sector
&uels 'mission
*8
%
+!gIGF, 98
%
+gIGF, N8
x
+gIGF, *8 +gIGF,
6etrol /422 %%E -43E/3 45.2E3
Diesel /522 %45 %E500 -2%33
AT& /%22 %42 4-2-3 -4%23
NG 04.2 222 5EE22 %-522
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ $$
/$/$ Met-o)o6o'.
This study uses the scenario approach for the analysis 9chwart7 +-..3, states
that scenarios are tools for ordering perceptions about alternative future
environments and the end#result might not be an accurate picture of tomorrow,
however can give better decisions about the future No matter how things might
actually turn out, both the analyst and the policy ma!er will have a scenario that
resembles a given future and that will help us thin! through both the opportunities
and the conse"uences of that future
This analysis is generally based on modeling methodologies to figure out the
potential emissions from transportation sector in Malaysia in the future &or this
purpose, initially, the type of fuel use for transportation sector should be identified
9ome of the data are already available but others have to be calculated with respect
to the county fuel consumption trend 9everal methods have been employed to
analy7e and predict unavailable data Those are linear, logarithmic, "uadratic, power
growth and exponential curve fitting &rom the calculation found that the best
method used to estimate the rest of the calculation data is polynomial curve fitting
The best fit from these methods will be used for this study The method is an attempt
to describe the relationship between variable ! as the function of available data and a
response Y ;hich see!s to find some smooth curve that best fit the data, but does
not necessarily pass through any data points Mathematically, a polynomial of order
k in ! is expressed in the following form +(lienbaum, -..E,=
k
k
! C 555 ! C ! C C Y + + + +
%
% - 2
+4-,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ $(
The pattern of emission due to the fuel changes is potential emissions released
by transportation sector in Malaysia The common gasses are consisting *8
%
, 98
%
,
N8
x
and *8 'mission pattern of the transportation sector can be calculated by the
following e"uation=
, +
4 4 % % - - n
p
n
i p i p i p i i
FE ES 555 FE ES FE ES FE ES CF TM + + + +
+4%,
/$0$ Re(6t an) Di%(ion
There are two types of data to be analy7ed ie fuel consumption data based on
fuel type and emission data of transportation sector These fuels are 6etrol, Diesel,
AT&, Natural Gas and 'lectricity The usage of the mentioned fuels is potentially to
be increased in the future Based on the data shown in Table 4%, using '" +4-,, the
petrol consumption by transportation sector in Malaysia from year %224 to year %2%2
can be predicted by the following e"uation=
./.0 2 3 4% -4. 4 -%25
% %
-
+ + R , ! 5'236 ! Y +44,
Based on the data shown in Table 4%, using '" +4-,, the diesel fuel
consumption in transportation sector in Malaysia from the year %224 to %2%2 can be
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ $)
predicted The total of diesel fuel use in transportation sector can be predicted by the
following e"uation=
.-E4 2 33- -2 /4%5/ - -2-0
% %
%
+ R , ! ! Y
+45,
The total of AT& fuel used for transportation sector in Malaysia can be
predicted by the following e"uation=
.3E/ 2 0% -0/ /%. 52 53 -.5
% %
4
+ + R , ! ! Y
+40,
The total of natural gas fuel uses in transportation sector in Malaysia can be
predicted by the following e"uation=
/523 2 -2%3 2 020. - %/00 %
% %
5
+ R , ! ! Y +43,
The total of electricity uses in transportation sector in Malaysia can be predicted
by the following e"uation=
E%-5 2 2%05 2 40.% 2 50E5 2
% %
0
+ R , ! ! Y
+4/,
The results of the predicted data based on '"uations +44,, +45,, +40,, +43, and
+4/, from the year %224 to %2%2 are tabulated in Table 45
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ $*
Table 45 6redicted energy demand and fuel mix of transportation
sector in Malaysia
?ear &uel Type +!toe,
6etrol Diesel AT& NG 'lect Total
%224 //45 5./2 -.30 %% 3 -5 3.3
%225 E-3. 04.E %2/. %0 3 -0 3/E
%220 E3-3 0E5/ %-./ %. / -3 3./
%223 .2/3 34-E %4-E 4% E -/ /04
%22/ .05. 3E2. %55% 43 . -E E53
%22E -2 245 /4%% %0/2 5- -2 -. .//
%22. -2 04% /E0/ %/22 50 -- %- -50
%2-2 -- 25% E5-4 %E45 5. -4 %% 402
%2-- -- 030 E..2 %./- 05 -5 %4 0.4
%2-% -% -22 .0EE 4--- 0. -0 %5 E/4
%2-4 -% 35E -2 %2E 4%05 35 -3 %3 -.2
%2-5 -4 %2E -2 E5. 4522 /2 -E %/ 050
%2-0 -4 /E- -- 0-- 4002 /0 -. %E .43
%2-3 -5 43/ -% -.0 4/2% E- %2 42 433
%2-/ -5 .30 -% .22 4E0E E/ %% 4- E4%
%2-E -0 0/3 -4 3%3 52-/ .4 %4 44 443
%2-. -3 %22 -5 4/5 5-/. -22 %0 45 E//
%2%2 -3 E43 -0 -54 5455 -23 %/ 43 500
The predicted fuel percentage trend based on fuel type of energy consumption in
transportation sector in Malaysia is presented in &ig 4-
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ $+
&igure 4- 6redicted energy demand based on percentage fuel mix for
transportation sector in Malaysia
The small changes of energy sources for transportation sector have contributed
for emissions pattern in Malaysia To replace petrol the authority has to increase the
use of diesel This replacement can be avoided if Malaysian government plans early
The authority should switch this replacement to another renewable energy sources
such as bio#diesel or hydrogen fuel Gradual replacement of petrol and diesel with
natural gas is another alternative option since Malaysia has reserve a large amount of
this fuel and that is !nown that natural gas has lower emission than petrol and diesel
This can help to reduce emission in the future and also helps to secure Malaysia>s
energy security This is due to high cost of imported crude oil and higher cost of
conserving emissions in the future *onducting life cycle cost analysis of conserved
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ (#
emissions and investment is necessary <owever, this analysis is not discussed in this
study Detail explanation of cost of conserved emissions is discussed by (rause and
(oomey +-..2,
The pattern of emissions is a function of the total energy consumption
multiplied by the percentage of fuel mix and the amount of emissions by the fossil
fuel from every unit of energy used The pattern of emissions by transportation sector
in Malaysia is tabulated in Table 0 and illustrated in &ig 4% H 44
&igure 4% 6attern of *8
%
and *8 emissions production by transportation
sector in Malaysia
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ (%
&igure 446attern of 98
%
and N8
x
emissions production by transportation
sector in Malaysia
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ("
Table 40 6otential emissions production by transportation sector in Malaysia
?ear 'missions production by transportation +Ton,
*8
%
98
%
N8
C
*8
%224 50 22E 0%. -5-5 0%E 4./ - -3% E-E
%225 5E 2-3 4-0 -02. 00. .3E - %%E E3/
%220 0- -4E 05. -32/ 0.% 00. - %.3 E30
%223 05 4/0 %4% -/2. 3%3 -3. - 433 E--
%22/ 0/ /%3 43% -E-5 332 /.. - 54E /23
%22E 3- -.- .52 -.%4 3.3 55. - 0-% 05.
%22. 35 //- .3/ %240 /44 --. - 0EE 45-
%2-2 3E 533 55% %-0- //2 E2E - 333 2E%
%2-- /% %/0 435 %%/- E2. 0-/ - /50 //-
%2-% /3 -.E /40 %4.5 E5. %50 - E%/ 52E
%2-4 E2 %43 005 %0%- EE. ..4 - .-2 ..5
%2-5 E5 4EE E%- %30- .4- /3- - ..3 0%E
%2-0 EE 300 04/ %/E0 ./5 05E % 2E5 2--
%2-3 .4 243 /22 %.%4 - 2-E 400 % -/4 554
%2-/ ./ 04% 4-- 4235 - 234 -E% % %35 E%4
%2-E -2% -5% 4/- 4%2. - -2. 2%E % 40E -0-
%2-. -23 E33 E/E 440/ - -00 E.5 % 504 5%E
%2%2 --- /20 E45 402. - %24 /E2 % 002 305
The results from Table 40 show that the total emissions production from %224
to %2%2 are about -,434,/45,555 tons of *8
%
, 5%,E50 tons of 98
%
, -0,-/4,0/% tons
of N8
x
and 4%,3%3,%0% tons of *8 These are huge amount of emission for small
developing country li!e Malaysia The authorities and policyma!ers should find a
suitable policy to reduce this emission in order to contribute to (yoto 6rotocol and to
leave a better environment for future generation
/$2$ Con%6(ion
The emissions from transportation sector contributed the largest emission for the
country Government intervention to abate this emission is urgently needed at the
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ (&
present The emissions pattern from fossil fuel used in transportation sector can be
reduce by switching from fossil fuel to renewable fuel such as bio#diesel and
hydrogen fuel This policy offers solution and multiple benefits to utility, society and
most important to protect the environment Malaysian authority has to find ways to
reduce these emissions, such as by introducing emissions taxation which can be used
to subsidies renewable fuel or lower emission fuel or for replanting threes of the rain
forest in the country The increase in emissions is suspected due the increase in
vehicle population in Malaysia The greater the increase in vehicle population, the
higher would be the corresponding emissions Thus, one would have to conclude that
in order to bring down the emissions to considerably low levels, the growth in
vehicle population, particularly the passenger cars, has to be controlled or as
mentioned early is to introduce low emission fuel or to initiate renewable fuel type
The data from the study can be a basis for calculating cost benefit analysis for
implementation of new renewable energy sources for transportation sector and
emission abatement program in Malaysia
Re,eren%e
Beer T, Grant T, Brown @, 'dwards F, Nelson 6, ;atson <, ;illiams D +%222, Aife#
cycle 'missions Analysis of Alternative &uels for <eavy :ehicles *9I@8
Atmospheric @esearch @eport *I25--I--I&% Australian Greenhouse 8ffice
'nergy Information Administration +%225, D8'=
http=IIwwweiadoegovIemeuIipsrIcontentshtml
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ('
I'A +%22%, 8il Information %22% I'AI8'*D, 6aris
(lienbaum DG +-..E, Applied regression analysis and other multivariable
methods IT6 co, )9A
(rause &, (oomey F +-..2, )nit costs of carbon savings from urban trees, rural
trees, and electricity conservation= a utility cost perspective, Aawrence Ber!eley
Aaboratory, )niversity of *alifornia, Ber!eley
Mahlia TMI +%22%, 'missions from electricity generation in Malaysia @enewable
'nergy %/+%,=%.4#422
National 'nergy Balance +%224, Ministry of 'nergy, *ommunications and
Multimedia, (uala Aumpur, Malaysia
9chwart7 6 +-..3, The Art of the Aong :iew= 6lanning in an uncertain world,
Doubleday, New ?or!
)N +)nited Nations, +-..-, 'nergy 9tatistics= A Manual for Developing *ountries,
9eries &, No 03, )nited Nations, New ?or!
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ($
C!A"TER 0
TRANS"ORTATION SYSTEM DEVELO"MENT AND
ENERGY CONSUM"TION IN MALAYSIA
SUMMARY
This chapter discusses the main part of the transport and energy investigations
and pro$ections The first part of the chapter discusses a review of existing data
available from related authorities and transportation studies that were underta!en to
date *onsideration of population growth as well as socio#economic data and energy
use in transportation sector data has also been considered &orecasting future
transportation growth based on population growth and socio#economic data and
needs up to %2 years is also presented *onsideration of relationship between
transportation trips production and energy consumption is elaborated &ormulation of
a model for forecasting energy consumption by transportation sector and model
validation that ta!es into consideration the correlation coefficient is discussed in
detail &urthermore, the uses of the model to analy7e energy consumption based on
the modal split scenarios are also presented
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ((
0$#$ Intro)(%tion
It has been extensively described in the literatures that transportation sector is
one of the most energy consuming sector in many countries for years &or example in
)nited 9tates, the consumption of energy in transportation sector +year -./4H%22-,
range from %501 to %/.1 of the total energy consumed +)9 Department of
'nergy, %22%, In year %22-, transportation sector was positioned second after
industrial sector in consuming energy in )nited 9tates Fapanese transportation sector
consumes about %2#%01 of the total energy in recent years In Malaysia, total amount
of energy consumed in transportation sector was about 521 of the total energy
consumed compared to 4.1 in industrial sector and only -41 for commercial and
residential sector These figures show that energy is essential to transportation and on
the other hand could reasonably be $udged as in dire need of energy
)nfortunately, one of the greatest challenges to the transportation system is that
of dealing with its environmental impacts The environmental impacts of
transportation include large#scale impacts due to the system as a whole as well as
smaller scale impacts due to specific transportation facilities and activities Air
"uality is one of the most important impacts of the transportation besides energy
consumption and land use Noise pollution and reduced water "uality due to the
construction and the operation of transportation facilities and modes are also issues
that have to be ta!en into consideration The road transport, mainly automobiles is
the ma$or source of *8
%
emission as the ma$or global warming gas
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ()
Therefore, sustainability has become the !ey word in transportation policy goals in
both developed and developing countries The planning for urban transportation
systems has to address one additional re"uirement than in the past The goal of
achieving long term sustainability in urban transportation should be involved in any
transportation plan
0$#$# Mo)e o, Tran4ortation
The transportation system is often analy7ed in terms of the various modes of
the transportation Although very commonly used, the term mode does not have a
very clear definition In general, it means a M!indN of transportation +Ban!s, %22%,
The modes are distinguished in terms of their physical characteristics as highway,
rail, air and water transportation 9ometimes the modes are classified as road, rail,
maritime, and air transport Moreover, in other cases the organi7ational
characteristics are important= mass transit is almost universally referred to as a
MmodeN of transportation, although physically, it is primarily a combination of
highway and rail transportation Table 5- highlights the modes in transportation
system
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ (*
Table 5- Mode *lassification 9cheme
Descriptions &reight 6assenger
)rban Truc! +<ighway, 6rivate auto +<ighway,
Transit +<ighwayIrail,
Intercity Truc! +<ighway,
@ail
8cean 9hipping
Inland water
Air
6ipeline
6rivate auto +<ighway,
Bus +<ighway,
@ail
Air
9pecial purpose *onveyor belt
*able systems
S+7r&$8 Banks, '99'
0$#$* Tran4ortation De1an) Ana6.i
The need for transportation is derived from the interaction among social and
economic activities dispersed in space The diversity of these activities and the
complexity of their pattern of interaction result in numerous determinants of
transportation needs The reasons people need to travel are endless and range from
the indispensable "uest for food and shelter to the voluntary exercise of mobility for
its own recreational value *ommodities are also transported from place to place for
a multitude of reasons, such as from the economic necessities of production and
consumption and from the pursuit of economic advantage and gain
The initial step in understanding the relationship between socioeconomic
activities and transportation needs is to adopt a meaningful measure of these needs
The need for transportation is manifested in the form of traffic volume, either in
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ (+
terms of the flow of automobiles on road, passengers on a flight, or tons of cargo on
a train
Transportation demand is defined in much the same way To transport people
and goods consumes time and energy, for which a cost is incurred +(anafani, -.E4,
Transportation demand analysis is the process of relating the demand for
transportation to the socioeconomic activities that generate it In this process, the
type, level, and location of human activities are related to the demand for movement
of people and goods between the different points in space where these activities ta!e
place The results of this analysis are the relationships, often in the form of models,
between measures of activity and measures of transport demand
9ince transportation demand is itself expressed by a relationship between
traffic volumes and transportation cost characteristics, the results of transportation
demand analysis, become, then, relationships between traffic volumes, on the one
hand, and transportation system characteristics and socioeconomic activity levels on
the other
0$#$/ St(). Ob+e%tive
The main purpose of this study is to recommend a transportation system policy
in achieving sustainable transport system in Malaysia by reviewing the energy
consumption of transportation sector and correlating the energy consumed with the
transportation characteristics An analysis of the available historical and existing
transportation data would result in forecasted transportation demand in future
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ )#
9everal scenarios based on transportation modal split are adopted for supporting the
recommendations
0$#$0 Con%e4t(a6 Fra1e5or&
The study focuses on analysis of the historical and existing transportation
conditions and future transportation demand as well as the energy consumption of
transportation sector Transportation impacts on the energy consumption based on
varying modal split was also conducted The analysis has been carried out with
consideration of transportation demand for existing and future conditions The
following tas!s formed the main part of the transport and energy investigations and
pro$ections=
A review of existing data available from related authorities were underta!enL
*onsideration of population growth as well as socio#economic data and energy
use in transportation sector dataL
&orecasting future transportation growth based on population growth and socio#
economic data and needs up to %2 yearsL
*onsideration of relationship between transportation trips production and
energy consumptionL
&ormulation of a model for forecasting energy consumption by transportation
sectorL
Model validation that ta!es into consideration the correlation coefficientL
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ )%
)se of the model to analy7e energy consumption based on the modal split
scenarios
0$*$ T.4e o, Data Co66e%te)
A wide range of data is necessary for the successful completion of the study
and this has been identified 9ome of the data were obtained from government
agencies while some others were obtained through visual appraisal
0$*$# Roa) Tran4ort
The road transport classification in Malaysia involves several types of vehicles
such as motorcar, motorcycle, bus, commercial vehicle and other vehicles &or modal
split purposes, the vehicles are also classified into private and public services
vehicles &igure 5- shows the types of vehicles on the &ederal <ighway which
connects (uala Aumpur to 9hah Alam in 9elangor
M+%+r&ars and M+%+ri:a%i+n
As depicted in Table 5% the numbers of motorcars increase significantly every
year The annual growth of motorcars population from year -..- to %22% is about
.041 while for motori7ation level is 3/E1 *ompared to the population annual
growth rate +%0/1 in this case,, the increase of motorcars ownership is relatively
higher +almost -21 per year, &igure 5% illustrates the motori7ation rates in
Malaysia from year -..- to %22% per -,222 populations
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ )"
&igure 5- &ederal <ighway :iew towards (uala Aumpur
Table 5% Number of Motorcars and Motori7ation @ates in Malaysia from -..- to
%22%
S+7r&$8 R+ad Transp+r% D$par%#$n% and D$par%#$n% +; S%a%is%i&s, Ma4a"sia <'99'=
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ )&
@eferring to the figure, it is seen that the rate in -..E appears relatively lower
compared to the other rates during -..-#%22% This may be due to the impact of
economic downturn during that period which has led to a general reduction in car
utili7ation
&igure 5% Motori7ation @ates in Malaysia from -..- to %22%
M+%+r&"&4$s and M+%+ri:a%i+n
*ompared to the motori7ation rates of motorcars as illustrated above, the
motori7ation rates of motorcycles seem relatively higher <owever, the annual rate of
increase of motorcycles is lower than motorcars +only 5.01 per year, 8n the other
hand, the population of motorcycles is higher than the population of motorcars
Nevertheless, referring to Table 5% and Table 54 the disparity is not significant
between both types of motor vehicles
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ )'
Table 54 Number of Motorcycles and Motori7ation @ates from -..- to %22%
S+7r&$8 R+ad Transp+r% D$par%#$n% and D$par%#$n% +; S%a%is%i&s, Ma4a"sia <'99'=
B7s, C+##$r&ia4 and O%h$r V$hi&4$s
The population of buses, commercial and other vehicles in Malaysia from year
-..- to %22% is highlighted in Table 55 &rom the table it is seen that bus has the
lowest annual rates amongst the three types of vehicles Moreover, after comparing
population of all types of vehicles for year %22%, motorcycles accounted the highest
population +5E321, followed by motorcars +5%-/1, Bus population is the lowest
with about 2541 of the total road transport vehicles
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ )$
Table 55 Number of Buses, *ommercial and 8ther :ehicles from -..- to %22%
S+7r&$8 R+ad Transp+r% D$par%#$n%, Ma4a"sia <'99'=
Priva%$ and P7-4i& Transp+r% V$hi&4$s +; R+ad Transp+r%
6ublic transport is the !ey player in maintaining congestion at reasonable
levels on the roads Almost without exception public transport modes ma!es use of
road space more efficiently than the private car If some drivers could be persuaded
to use public transport instead of cars the rest of the car users would benefit from
improved levels of service +8rtu7ar and ;illumsen, -..2,
Table %5 detail the modal split between private and public transport modes in
Malaysia from year -..- to %22% It needs to be mentioned here that road public
transport modes may also include taxis although this mode is usually referred to as
para#transit
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ )(
Motorcars population mentioned earlier involve taxis and hired cars @eferring
to Table 50 and &igure 54, there is a big gap between the proportion of private cars
and public transport vehicles numbers &or example, in year %22% the percent share
of private cars is around .//1 of the total vehicles while the proportion of public
transport vehicles is only about %41 Moreover, public transport share appears to
have a diminishing trend from year -..- to %22%
Table 50 6roportion of 6rivate *ars and 6ublic Transport :ehicles from -..- to
%22%
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ))
&igure 54 Trends of 6rivate *ars and 6ublic Transport :ehicles
R+ad Mi4$a($
Table 53 depicts the distribution of road infrastructures for &ederal @oad and
9tate @oad based on type of pavement The proportion of paved roads in year %22%
accounts for /E501 of the total road mileage
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ )*
Table 53 9ummary of @oad Mileage in Malaysia +(M,
S+7r&$8 )i(h>a" P4annin( ni%, Minis%r" +; W+rks Ma4a"sia <'99'=
0$*$* Rai6 Tran4ort
(eretapi Tanah Melayu Berhad +(TMB, en$oyed a long and eventful trac!
record dating bac! over a century to Fune -EE0 Then the railway system has
progressed to a nationwide single trac! networ! of -,/22 !m spanning the whole of
6eninsular Malaysia operated by the Government#owned enterprise, (TMB
+Abdullah, %224,
&rom the -..2>s, new entrants into the railway industry too! place
Development of new rail routes was limited to urban centres within the (lang :alley
The (TM (omuter service provided the Malaysian public of their first taste of
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ )+
modern urban transport through the introduction of Malaysia>s first electrified train
service on 4rd August -..0 The (TM (omuter service consists of two routes from
@awang to 9eremban and 6ort (lang to 9entul covering a total distance of -02 !m
The (TM passengers and freight traffic from year -..% to %22% are shown in
Table 5/ In terms of passenger number, it is seen in general that passengers of (TM
is on the decrease during -..% to %22% while number of container increase
significantly, with an annual growth of -2.-1 Nevertheless, in year -..3 the
passengers increase to 3--- million passengers from 0-53 million passengers in
year -..0 before dropping bac! the following year

Table 5/ (TMB 6assengers and &reight Traffic from year -..% to %22%
S+7r&$8 ?$r$%api Tanah M$4a"7 B$rhad <?TMB, '99'=
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ *#
Apart from (TM (omuter, other (lang :alley rail operators such as 6)T@A
and 9TA@ Aight @ail Transit +A@T,, '@A and (A#Monorail converge at (A 9entral
The 9TA@ A@T was fully completed in 9eptember -..E and covers a route length of
%/ !m from Ampang to 9entul Timur and 9ri 6etaling to 9entul Timur Another
addition to (lang rail showcase was the 6)T@A A@T @unning on both elevated and
underground trac!s, 6)T@A has been operating since full completion in Fune -...
and covers a distance of %. !m
In the meantime, the 'xpress @ail Ain! +'@A, interface directly with the (uala
Aumpur International Airport +(AIA, to offer airline passenger seamless rail to air
transfers In addition to world#class comfort and convenience, the '@A service also
features an airline chec!#in service at the (A 9entral rail terminal itself
In addition, the latest pro$ect of rail based system is the (A Monorail, which is
a service which connects passengers to the most popular shopping areas within (uala
Aumpur The (A Monorail service commenced operation in August %224
The Integrated @ail 9ervices +(TM (omuter, 6)T@A and 9TA@ A@T, '@A
and (A Monorail, route is depicted in &igure 55 while &igure 50 depicts the
average daily passenger traffic of the A@T from year -..E to %224 @eferring to the
figure it is seen that the number of passengers is increasing during the period The
significant increase of passengers occurred during 9eptember -..E to Fanuary %22-
9ince then, the ridership appears to stagnate at around -32,222 commutersIday
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ *%
A'G'ND
S+7r&$8 S"arika% Prasarana N$(ara B$rhad <SPNB, '991=
&igure 55 Integrated @ail 9ervices in (lang :alley
The integrated rail services are complemented with supporting facilities such as
feeder bus and par! and ride system as depicted in &igure 53
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ *"
S+7r&$8 Y7s+;;, '99@
&igure 50 A@T 6assengers per Day
&igure 53 6ar! n> @ide at A@T 9tation
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ *&
Based on the rail passengers data as mentioned earlier, the total rail passengers
from year -..E to %22% could be summari7ed as in Table 5E &rom the table, it is
observed that the total number of rail passengers in year %22% is more than 034
million passengers and most of them are using A@T +.4.1, Moreover, there is a
significant increase of A@T passengers in year %222 as compared to the previous
year This may be due to the operation of 6)T@A A@T since Fune -...
Table 5E @ail 6assengers from ?ear -..E to %22%
S+7r&$8 C+ns74%an%As Es%i#a%i+n
0$*$/ Air Tran4ort
The main air transportation system includes commercial airlines and air freight
carriers The ma$or mar!et is intercity passenger travel, particularly long#distance
travel In addition, some intercity freight is shipped by air The air transportation
system in Malaysia includes %% public#use airports *ommercial aviation accounted
for more than 4%/ million passengers in year %22%
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ *'
Table 5. and Table 5-2 illustrate the air traffic +passenger andIor cargo, at
Malaysian airports during -..- to %22% Table 5-- to Table 5-3 highlights the
passenger#!ilometer data of Malaysian Airports
Table 5. Air Traffic at 6ublic#use Airports in Malaysia from year -..- to %22%
S+7r&$8 Ma4a"sia Airp+r%s B$rhad <'99'=
@eferring to Table 5. above, both passenger and cargo is on the increase
&reight air carriers have the highest annual growth of .341 per year during -..- H
%22% The detail of number of passengers served based on airports in Malaysia are
shown in Table 5-2 as follows
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ *$
Table 5-2 Air 6assengers Traffic at 6ublic#use Airports in Malaysia from year -..2 to %22%
S+7r&$8 Ma4a"sia Airp+r%s B$rhad, '99'
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ *(
Table 5-- International Air 6assenger#(m Data of (AIA
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ *)
Table 5-- International Air 6assenger#(m Data of (AIA +contD,
S+7r&$8 C+ns74%an%As $s%i#a%i+n -as$d +n Ma4a"sia Airp+r%s B$rhad da%a, '991
Table 5-% Domestic Air 6assenger#(m Data of (AIA
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ **
Table 5-4 Air 6assenger#(m Data of (ota (inabalu Airport
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ *+
Table 5-5 Air 6assenger#(m Data of (uching Airport
Table 5-0 Air 6assenger#(m Data of 6enang Airport
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ +#
Table 5-3 Air 6assenger#(m Data of Aang!awi Airport
0$*$0 Mariti1e Tran4ort
The mar!et for maritime transportation system is intercity freight )sually
coastwise shipping speciali7es in bul! goods while foreign going shipping carries all
types of cargo This system provides low speed and relatively low accessibility, but
extremely high capacities
The maritime transport in Malaysia consists of foreign going and coastal
shipping The types of ship that operated in Malaysian ports includes oil tan!er,
li"uefied gas carriers, oil carriers, cargo carriers, passenger carriers, container ships
and vehicle carriers There are fourteen +-5, ports throughput cargo carriers with
total cargo as shown in Table 5-/ It is seen also that cargo carriers have annual
growth rates of 3441 per year
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ +%
Table 5-/ Total *argo Throughput by 6orts from year -..- to %22%
S+7r&$8 A44 %h$ P+r%s and Marin$ D$par%#$n%, '99'
0$*$2 "aen'er Tran4ort Mo)e S-are
In terms of number of passenger carried, road transport is still leading amongst
the transportation modes in Malaysia In year %22%, more than E01 of passengers
were carried by road transport and about -51 by rail services The air transport mode
only serves about 2%51 of the total daily passengers The transport mode share for
daily passengers is illustrated in &igure 5/
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ +"
&igure 5/ 6roportion of 6assenger by Modes
*$0$8 N(1ber o, Ve-i%6e Re'itration b. T.4e o, F(e6
According to @oad Transport Department for year -..., %222 and %22%, about
0/1 of the total new vehicles registered is passenger car which ..31 uses petrol
and only 251 passenger car uses diesel 8n the other hand, for bus registration, the
proportion of bus is only 2241 of the total vehicles and .201 of the bus using
diesel The number of new vehicle registration in year -..., %222 and %22% based on
fuel type is represented in Table 5-E
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ +&
Table 5-E Number of New :ehicle @egistration Based on &uel Type
0$*$9 "o4(6ation
Malaysia with approximately 442,222 s"uare !m of land consist about %50
million populations in %22% The annual population growth rate during the period
-..- to %22% is around %0/1 As seen in Table 5-., population of Malaysia has
been growing from -E0 million in -..- to %50 million in %22% It means the
population has grown -4 times in these -% years
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ +'
Table 5-. Malaysia 6opulation from -..- to %22%
S+7r&$8 D$par%#$n% +; S%a%is%i&s Ma4a"sia, '99'
0$*$: Gro Do1eti% "ro)(%t AGD"B
The Gross Domestic 6roducts +GD6, and the Gross Domestic 6roducts +GD6,
per *apita of Malaysia during year -..- to %22% periods are shown in Table 5%2
The GD6 annual rate is 0.01 while GD6 per *apita is 4421
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ +$
Table 5%2 Gross Domestic 6roducts +GD6, from -..- to %22%
0$*$< E146o.1ent
@eferring to Table 5%- it can be seen that in Malaysia, the unemployment rates
decrease 2001 per year as the result of 42E1 annual growth rate of employment
Number of employment in %22% achieved .0 million from only /2 million in -..%
*ompared to the population annual growth rate of %0/1, the employment rate is
relatively higher
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ +(
Table 5%- 'mployment in All 9ectors from -..- to %22%
0$/ Revie5 o, !ND" an) SMURT C KL St().
The <ND6 +<ighway Networ! Development 6lan, 9tudy was conducted from
May -..- to &ebruary -..4 with the technical cooperation from the Government of
Fapan +FI*A H Fapan International *ooperation Agency, The <ND6 9tudy targeted
the following two ob$ectives covering the whole of Malaysia +6eninsular Malaysia,
9abah and 9arawa!,
To formulate a development plan of the national highway networ! up to the year
%2-2L
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ +)
To prioriti7e new and improved lin!ages in the planned networ! with respect to
technical and economic consideration, and to formulate a road development
program
The highway networ! development plan was approved by the cabinet
and incorporated as the basic guidelines for the future development of highways in
the Mid#Term @eview of the 9ixth Malaysian 6lan 9ubse"uently, the Government of
Malaysia and the Government of Fapan through FI*A had conducted another
transportation study called A 9tudy on Integrated )rban Transportation 9trategies for
'nvironmental Improvement in (uala Aumpur The study started in March -../ and
ended in &ebruary -... The study is also called as MStrategies for Managing Urban
Transport in Kuala Lumpur,N and the abbreviation of the study is !nown as
M9M)@T#(AN
The ob$ectives of 9M)@T#(A study are=
To formulate urban transportation policies and strategies to alleviate traffic
congestion and to improve the "uality of the urban environment by promoting
the usage of public transportationL and
To formulate an )rban Transportation Master 6lan in (uala Aumpur
Metropolitan Area for the period up to the year %2%2
The target year of the Master 6lan was defined as the year %2%2, with and
intermediate target year of %2-2
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ +*
0$/$# Tri4 "ro)(%tion
The trip production is defined as the process of estimating the total trip
generated within the study area Trips are usually thought of as being two#way
excursions originating at the trip#ma!er>s home In general, trips to be produced by
residential development and attracted by economic or other activity Trips are
normally stratified by purpose= for each trip type, the number produced in a
particular 7one is assumed to depend on the si7e and characteristics of the 7one>s
resident population ;here there is more than one predictive factor +x,, this is
accomplished through multiple regression In this techni"ue, a function of the form is
fitted to data Y
$
is coefficient to be determined through regression analysis
k k
B B B " + + + +
% % - - 2
+4-,
In the <ND6 9tudy, the multiple linear regression is selected over other
method +such as grow factor method, trip production rate method, or the vehicle
based method, to model trip production This is due to the high correlation and no
ma$or difference among the results from the total passenger and the freight demand
and the low reliability as the growth factor and the trip production method The
multiple regression utili7e the population, employment, GD6, and GD6 per capita
The trip production model as well as the correlation coefficient from the <ND6
9tudy is illustrated in Table 5%%
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ++
0$/$* Tri4 Generation an) Attra%tion Mo)e6
The trip generation is defined as the number of trips generated by each traffic
7ones per unit of time and the trip attraction is defined as those attracted be each
traffic 7one per unit of time in the study area The total trip generation and attraction
by 7one is controlled by trip production whereby passenger and the freight are
converted into vehicle trips
The trip generation step is to estimate the number of vehicle#trips, which will
begin or end in each traffic analysis 7one within a study area for a typical day of the
target year 'ach trip has two ends, which are described in terms of trip purposes
such as wor! trips, school trips, shopping trips, and social or recreational trips Trip
ends at residential 7ones are referred to as productions, and trip ends at
nonresidential 7ones are referred to as attractions
According to land use, trips can also be classified as home#based or as non
home#based A home#based trip consists of trips that either begin or end at a resident
7one &or example, a home#based wor! trip would be considered to have a trip end
produced in the resident 7one and attracted to the wor! 7one A non#home#based trip
consists of trips that neither begin nor end at a resident 7one *ommonly used
methods for trip generation include regression models, trip#rate analysis models, and
cross#classification models
The e"uations for the tip Generation and Attraction Model for the Macro and
the Micro Aevel is shown in Table 5%4 and Table 5%5 respectively Table 5%0
shows the average vehicle occupancy and average load factor
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %##
Table 5%% Trip 6roduction @egression Model
Types of
Transport Mode
&ormula *oefficient
6assenger
6assenger *ar
Bus
@ail
Air
All Modes
#-30,.4E T 3.4. 686 T 44%.4 GD6
#%/0,/55 T E../2 686 T %.24 GD6
#-,E/% T 2.E/ GD6I6
#4,355 T -430 GD6I6
#-2%,440 T -0E3/- 686 T 434/- GD6
2.E.
2.04
2/35
2.E/
2..-
&reight
Aorry
@ail
Air
;ater
All Modes
#4-,%30 T E.3- GD6 H //5% 'M6
#-,25% T 2255. GD6
#-. T 2222-4 GD6 T 22255/ 'M6
#5,.%E T 2203. GD6 T -245 'M6
#4-,E.0 T .-02 GD6 H E32- 'M6
2E5%
2E2E
2.E/
2.E.
2E50
S+7r&$8 )DNP S%7d", /../
N+%$8 EMP C E#p4+"#$n% GDP C Gr+ss D+#$s%i& Pr+d7&%
POP C P+p74a%i+n GDP0P C Gr+ss D+#$s%i& Pr+d7&% p$r Capi%a
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %#%
Table 5%4 General '"uation for the Trip GenerationIAttraction Model +Macro Aevel,
:ehicle Type Generation I
Attraction
&ormula *oefficient
*ar Generation
Attraction
#--%-/2 T -%-3/- G'M6
#--%-44 T -%-334 G'M6
2.50
2.50
Bus Generation
Attraction
%04/4 G'M6
%05- G'M6
2E4E
2E4E
Aorry Generation
Attraction
%2/%2 T -/4- GD6
%2/33 T -/4- GD6
2E24
2E24
S+7r&$8 )DNP S%7d", /../
N+%$8 DEMP C E#p4+"#$n% -" D+n$ DGDP C GDP -" D+n$
:ehicle Type GenerationI
Attraction
&ormula *oefficient
*ar Generation
Attraction
/0E5 686 T .3%-E 'M6
/4E.0 686 T .3/0-5 'M6
2.50
2.50
Bus Generation
Attraction
5%-3 686 T -5E0 GD6
5-03 686 T -022 GD6
2E4E
2E4E
Aorry Generation
Attraction
5EE-5 686 T -35/23 'M6
5/4/5 686 T -3E%.E 'M6
2E24
2E24
Table 5%5 General '"uation for the Trip GenerationIAttraction Model +Micro Aevel,
S+7r&$8 )DNP S%7d", /../
N+%$8 EMP C E#p4+"#$n% GDP C Gr+ss D+#$s%i& Pr+d7&%
POP C P+p74a%i+n
Table 5%0 Average :ehicle 8ccupancy and Aoad &actor
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %#"
:ehicle Type Average :ehicle
8ccupancy
Average Aoad &actor
*ar -E #
Bus %E #
Aorry # -.
S+7r&$8 )DNP S%7d", /../
0$/$/ Tri4 "ro)(%tion Rate
Besides providing the trip production and as well as the trip generation and trip
attraction, the <ND6 9tudy also highlighted the average daily trip production rates as
shown in Table 5%3
Table 5%3 Average Daily Trip 6roduction @ates by :ehicle Type in Malaysia
S+7r&$8 )DNP S%7d", /../
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %#&
0$/$0 Mo)e6 ,or Fore%atin' Ve-i%6e
<ND6 study provides linear regression model for forecasting number of
vehicles by areas that is obtained from the analysis of number of vehicles by states
The areas stated here is for 6eninsular Malaysia, 9abah and 9arawa! The linear
regression models are illustrated in Table 5%/
Table 5%/ Number of :ehicles &orecasting Models in Malaysia
:ehicle Type &ormula *oefficient
6 *ar #-2,.E-T %5.55E GD6 2.55
Bus #-33 T -3-/0 686 2/42
Aorry #-,E20 T /%4-. GD6 2.2.
S+7r&$8 )DNP S%7d", /../
0$/$2 Mo)a6 S-are
@eferring to 9M)@T#(A study, the share of the public mode of transport in the
(uala Aumpur metropolitan area was estimated at %52 percent in %222, %43 percent
in %2-2, and %03 percent in %2%2 under the Base case +as shown in Table 5%E, In
Base case, both highway and public transportation networ! was assumed to have
been completed according to the schedule
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %#'
Table 5%E Modal 9hare in the (uala Aumpur Metropolitan Area
0$0 F(t(re So%ioe%ono1i% Fra1e5or&
The li!ely future changes in the travel demand for each traffic 7one in the study
area are assessed by the examination of the control totals for the study area The
control total is established by ma!ing the appraisal of the changes in the following
socio#economic framewor! and indicators
'xisting and &uture 6opulationL
'xisting and &uture GD6 L
'xisting and &uture 'mploymentL and
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %#$
<istorical Traffic Growth
Table 5%. shows the forecasted population in Malaysia The average annual
population growth for the period -..- H %22% was approximately %0/1 The
population of the country is expected to reach 4E/5E million by the year %2%2
Meanwhile, Table 542 provides the forecasted employment within the study area
The employment is expected to reach -3530 million people by the year %2%2 with an
average annual growth rate of 42E1 &or the Gross Domestic 6roduct, the forecasted
data is illustrated in Table 54-
Table 5%. 6ro$ected 6opulations, %220 # %2%2
S+7r&$8 C+ns74%an%As $s%i#a%i+n, '991
Table 542 6ro$ected 'mployment from year %220 to %2%2
S+7r&$8 C+ns74%an%As $s%i#a%i+n, '991
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Table 54- 6ro$ected Gross Domestic 6roduct +GD6, from year %220 to %2%2
S+7r&$8 C+ns74%an%As $s%i#a%i+n, '991
0$2 Ana6.i ,or Tran4ortation De1an)
@eferring to the <ND6 9tudy as mentioned above, there are several models for
estimating the trip generation within the study area Trip generation could be
estimated in the unit of person trips +for people movement, and tonnage +for goods
movement, and sometimes in vehicular units depending on the purposes of the study
In this study, it will concentrate on the number of vehicles particularly for
passenger car, bus and commercial vehicles Three types of techni"ues are used in
determining the number of vehicles, namely Method -, Method % and Method 4 In
the first method, the regression model as depicted in Table 5%% was utili7ed &rom
these regression models, the number of passengers is obtained and then using the
vehicle occupancy of each mode, the number of vehicles was determined
In the second method, the model for forecasting number of vehicles as shown
in Table 5%/ was utili7ed In this method the number of vehicles was determined
faster Method 4 was obtained by developing models to forecast number of vehicles
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %#)
andIor passengers based on the existing data <owever, the incorporated parameters
in the models still using the parameters of the models from the <ND6 study This is
because the parameters that significantly affected the number of vehicles andIor
passengers had been determined and validated in the study
Nevertheless, in order to obtain the optimum results, three types of techni"ues
for determining the number of vehicles were compared Moreover, the method used
to $udge whether one techni"ue is better than the other is based on the disparity of the
numbers from modeled versus observed and also the linear correlation of the model
0$2$# Met-o) #
Table 54%, Table 544, and Table 545 show the number of observed and
modeled vehicles from year -..- to %22% by utili7ing Method - The table also
provides the annual growth rates between the observed and modeled data &igure 5E,
&igure 5., and &igure 5-2 depict the scatter#plot and @#s"uare of observed and
modeled number of vehicles
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Table 54% 8bserved :s Modeled 6assenger *ar :olumes +Method -,
# % ### " ### & ### '# ## $# ## (# ## Ob !" # !$ N % &b! " # %# ## " ### & ### ' ### $ ### ( ###
M'$!((!$ N%&b!"
M! )* ' $ + P , ! -. ! " C, "
R S- in ea r. #,+ %&
&igure 5E 9catter#plot of 8bserved vs Modeled 6assenger *ar :olumes +Method -,
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Table 544 8bserved :s Modeled Bus :olumes +Method -,
# %# ## #" ### # & ### # '# ## # $# ## # (# ## #) ### # * ### # +# ## # %# ## ## Ob !" # !$ N % &b! " # % ### # " ### # & ### # ' ### # $ ### # ( ### # ) ### # * ### # + ### # %# ## ##
M'$!((!$ N%&b!"
M! )*' $ + B %
R S- in ea r. #,+ (*
&igure 5. 9catter#plot of 8bserved vs Modeled Bus :olumes +Method -,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %%#
Table 545 8bserved :s Modeled *ommercial :eh +Method -,
# %# ## ## " ### ##& ### ##'# ## ## $ ### ##( ### ##) ### ##*# ## ## + ### ##% ### ## # %% ## ### % "## ## # % &## ## # %' ## ### % $## ## # % (## ## # Ob ! " #! $ N %&b !" # % ### ## " ### ## & ### ## ' ### ## $ ### ## ( ### ## ) ### ## * ### ## + ### ## %# ## ### %% ## ### %" ## ### %& ## ### %' ## ### %$ ## ### %( ## ###
M'$!((!$ N%&b!"
M! )*' $ + C '&&! " /0 ,(
R S- ine ar .# ,+ &(
&igure 5-2 9catter#plot of 8bserved vs Modeled *ommercial :ehicle +Method -,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %%%
0$2$* Met-o) *
9imilar to the analysis in Method -, in this method the observed and modeled
volumes were analy7ed Table 540, Table 543, and Table 54/ show the number of
observed and modeled vehicles form year -..- to %22% ;hile &igure 5--, &igure
5-%, and &igure 5-4 depict the scatter#plot and @#s"uare of observed and modeled
number of vehicles
Table 540 8bserved vs Modeled 6assenger *ar :olumes +Method %,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %%"
# %# ## "# ## &# ## ' ### $ ### (# ## Ob ! " #! $ N %&b !" # % ### "# ## &# ## '# ## $# ## (# ##
M'$!((!$ N%&b!"
M! )*' $ 2 P , ! - . !" C , "
R S- in ea r. #,* +$
&igure 5-- 9catter#plot of 8bserved vs Modeled 6assenger *ar :olumes +Method %,
Table 543 8bserved vs Modeled Bus :olumes +Method %,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %%&
# %# ## #" ### # & ### # '# ## # $# ## # (# ## #) ### # * ### # +# ## # %# ## ## Ob !" # !$ N % &b! " # % ### # " ### # & ### # ' ### # $ ### # ( ### # ) ### # * ### # + ### # %# ## ##
M'$!((!$ N%&b!"
M! )*' $ 2 B %
R S- in ea r. #,+ $$
&igure 5-% 9catter#plot of 8bserved vs Modeled Bus :olumes +Method %,
Table 54/ 8bserved vs Modeled *ommercial :ehicle +Method %,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %%'
# %# ## ## " ### ##& ### ##'# ## ## $ ### ##( ### ##) ### ##*# ## ## + ### ##% ### ## # %% ## ### % "## ## # % &## ## # %' ## ### % $## ## # % (## ## # Ob ! " #! $ N %&b !" # % ### ## " ### ## & ### ## ' ### ## $ ### ## ( ### ## ) ### ## * ### ## + ### ## %# ## ### %% ## ### %" ## ### %& ## ### %' ## ### %$ ## ### %( ## ###
M'$!((!$ N%&b!"
M! )*' $ 2 C '&&! " /0 ,(
R S- ine ar .# ,+ '(
&igure 5-4 9catter#plot of 8bserved vs Modeled *ommercial :ehicle +Method %,
0$2$/ Met-o) /
As mentioned earlier, Method 4 was obtained by developing models to forecast
number of vehicles andIor passengers based on the existing data Nevertheless, the
parameters in the models are the same as that used in the <ND6 study The
parameters involve population, GD6 and GD6 per capita The multiple linear
regression type was adopted for the model
The available historical number of vehicles and passengers from year -..- to
%22% had been analy7ed to develop the model The number of vehicles consists of
number of passenger cars, buses, and commercial vehicles As for passenger data, the
numbers of rail and air transport passengers were analy7ed
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %%$
The following tables illustrate number of passenger cars, buses, commercial
vehicles, and also numbers of rail and air transport passengers till year %22%
Table 54E No of *ars, Buses and *ommercial :ehicle ?ear -..- to %22%
Table 54. No of Daily @ail 6assenger ?ear -..E to %22%
S+7r&$8 C+ns74%an%As $s%i#a%i+n ;r+# ?TMB <'99'= and Y7s+;; <'99@=
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Table 552 No of Daily Air 6assenger
S+7r&$8 C+ns74%an%As $s%i#a%i+n ;r+# MAB da%a <'99'=
The trip generation models for Method 4 are summari7ed in Table 55- These
regression models are used to obtain the numbers of passenger car, bus and lorry as
well as the number of rail and air transport passengers per day
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %%)
Table 55- Method 4 @egression Model
Types of
Transport Mode
&ormula @#s"
6assenger *ar #.E%.4/E T 33%/2- 686 H /- GD6 2.E.
Bus #4E%-E T %E-4 686 T 2-2% GD6 2./0
Aorry #%2-.5. T 5-44 GD6 2.53
@ail #-404525 T -3/0- GD6I6 2/.-
Air #%-2.45 T --E3- GD6I6 2.00
S+7r&$8 C+ns74%an%As Es%i#a%i+n
N+%$8 GDP C Gr+ss D+#$s%i& Pr+d7&% POP C P+p74a%i+n
GDP0P C Gr+ss D+#$s%i& Pr+d7&% p$r Capi%a
The following Table 55%, Table 554, and Table 555 show the number of
observed and modeled vehicles or passengers by utili7ing Method 4 &igure 5-5,
&igure 5-0, and &igure 5-3 depict the scatter#plot and @#s"uare of observed and
modeled number of vehicles or passengers
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %%*
Table 55% 8bserved vs Modeled 6assenger *ar :olumes +Method 4,
# %# ## "# ## &# ## ' ### $ ### (# ## Ob !" # !$ N % &b! " # % ### "# ## &# ## '# ## $# ## (# ##
M'$!((!$ N%&b!"
M! )*' $ 3 P , ! -. ! " C, "
R S- in ea r. #,+ *+
&igure 5-5 9catter#plot of 8bserved vs Modeled 6assenger *ar +Method 4,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %%+
Table 554 8bserved vs Modeled Bus :olumes +Method 4,
# %# ## #" ### # & ### # '# ## # $# ## # (# ## #) ### # * ### # +# ## # %# ## ## Ob !" # !$ N % &b! " # % ### # " ### # & ### # ' ### # $ ### # ( ### # ) ### # * ### # + ### # %# ## ##
M'$!((!$ N%&b!"
M! )*' $ 3 B %
R S- in ea r. #,+ )$
&igure 5-0 9catter#plot of 8bserved vs Modeled Bus +Method 4,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %"#
Table 555 8bserved vs Modeled *ommercial :ehicle +Method 4,
# " ### ## '# ## ## ( ### ## *# ## ## % ### ## #% "## ## # %' ## ### % (## ## # Ob ! " #! $ N %&b !" # " ### ## ' ### ## ( ### ## * ### ## %# ## ### %" ## ### %' ## ### %( ## ###
M'$!((!$ N%&b!"
M! )*' $ 3 C '&&! " /0 ,(
R S- ine ar .# ,+ '(
&igure 5-3 9catter#plot of 8bserved vs Modeled *ommercial :ehicle +Method 4,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %"%
0$2$0 S(11ar. o, Met-o) #D Met-o) * an) Met-o) /
According to the simple linear regression of the three methods that had been
employed as shown in Table 550, it could be concluded that all methods have good
fitness with the observed volumes +in this case, the observed data was obtained from
the official statistic report, This is based on the @ s"uare values
<owever, as can be observed from the scatter#plots of the observed and the
predicted volumes for Method - and Method %, there is a correction factor that needs
to be applied in order to bring the predicted volumes to be close to the actual
observed volumes Although the @#s"uare values are showing good correlation
between the respective sets of data, however, the models do not give good prediction
of the forecasted volumes Methods - and % based on models derived from the
<ND6 study appear not to be able to give a good prediction of the forecasted
volumes
@esults obtained by using the models developed based on more recent data as
shown in Method 4 indicate less disparity between the modeled and the observed
trips and a better coefficient of correlation Therefore, Method 4 was chosen to be
employed in this study
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %""
Table 550 Trips Generation Models
Types of
Transport
Mode
Method &ormula
*oeffi#
cient
6assenger
*ar
Method - #-30,.4E T 3.4. 686 T 44%.4 GD6 2.-4
Method % #-2,.E-T %5.55E GD6 2E.0
Method 4 #.,E%.,4/E T 33%/2- 686 H /- GD6 2.E.
Bus
Method - #%/0,/55 T E../2 686 T %.24 GD6 2.3E
Method % #-33 T -3-/0 686 2.00
Method 4 #4E,%-E T %E-4 686 T 2-2% GD6 2./0
Aorry
Method - #4-,%30 T E.3- GD6 H //5% 'M6 2.-%
Method % #-,E20 T /%4-. GD6 2.52
Method 4 #%2-,.5. T 5-44 GD6 2.53
0$2$2 F(t(re Tota6 Tri4 Generation
The traffic pro$ections shall ta!e into account present and potential traffic
generating sources based on existing and future economic development plans, land
use development plans as well as committed and future road schemes, population and
historical traffic growth and other socioeconomic factors
As mentioned earlier, the model was developed based on the <ND6 9tudy in
year -..- and the validation process utili7ed the data from year -..- to %22%
<owever, in order to ac"uire an optimum result in forecasting the future trip
generation as well as ta!ing into consideration the model validation using the
existing data, the <ND6 -..- regression model was revised The new regression
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %"&
models for forecasting the future trip generation was formulated in Method 4 of this
study After employing the model and the forecasted population and socioeconomic
data in future, the future trip generation was obtained Numbers of passengers by
type of modes are shown in Table 553
The number of trips obtained as shown in Table 553 is referred to as MDo
Nothing 9cenarioN In this scenario the proportion of passengers using private and
public modes was based on the trends in year -..- to %22% As seen in Table 0-3,
the proportion of passengers using passenger car is about E21 of the total passengers
generated The proportion of passenger car is decreased from year to year It is
estimated that passenger using private car only at /.331 of the total passengers by
year %2%2
Table 553 &orecasted No of 6assengers by Type of Modes
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %"'
Table 55/ &orecasted modal split by type of modes
According to Table 55/, it could be seen that passenger car has the highest
proportion in transport modal split in future <owever, this would occur if there is no
ad$ustment from the transport authority in terms of the share of modal usage
0$2$8 Mo)a6 S46it S%enario
The transport authorities had set up a target for modal split amongst the land
transport modes, particularly for private and public transport +bus and rail, &or
example, as mentioned earlier, in 9M)@T#(A study, it was targeted around /2
+6*ar, = 42 +6ublic, by year %2%2 under M6 *ase option
The Malaysian Government plans to set up a modal split target of 52 +6*ar, =
32 +6ublic, <owever, according to experience in developed countries and the
transportation demand analysis as mentioned above it is not easy to achieve the
target Therefore, some scenarios of transport modal split between passenger car and
public transport need to be set up in order to illustrate the impact of modal share on
number of vehicles +referred as MDo 9omething 9cenarioN, Afterwards, based on the
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %"$
scenarios of modal split as well as the number of vehicles the future transport
infrastructures could be determined
The adopted future modal split scenarios for this study is shown in Table 55E
The scenarios based on the future modal split scenarios estimated in 9M)@T#(A
study under Base *ase option The modal split target of 52 +6*ar, = 32 +6ublic, by
Malaysian Government is also ta!en into consideration
Table 55E &uture Modal 9plit 9cenarios
S+7r&$8 C+ns74%an%As $s%i#a%i+n -as$d +n SMRTE?L s%7d" </...=
0$2$9 F(t(re Tri4 Generation Bae) on S%enario
The following tables show the forecasted no of passengers as well as the
forecasted no of vehicles and the total vehicle trips
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %"(
Table 55. &orecasted No of :ehicles by Type of Modes +Do Nothing 9cenario,
Table 502 &orecasted No of :ehicles by Type of Modes +Do 9omething 9cenario,
Table 50- &orecasted Trip Generation @ates by Type of Modes
S+7r&$8 C+ns74%an%As $s%i#a%i+n -as$d )NDP s%7d" </../=
0$2$: Ve-i%6eEKi6o1eter
According to <ND6 9tudy, the mean trip length for the total vehicle population
is -/% !m The trip length distribution for passenger car and taxi display a similar
pattern to the total &or goods vehicle, the average trip length is found to be about
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %")
%-0 !m Table 50% illustrates the forecasted :ehicle#!m for MDo Nothing 9cenarioN
while Table 0%% for MDo 9omething 9cenarioN respectively
Table 50% Total :ehicle#!m of the Traffic +Do Nothing 9cenario,
Table 504 Total :ehicle#!m of the Traffic +Do 9omething 9cenario,
0$8 F(e6 Con(14tion In Tran4ortation Se%tor
In general, the fuel consumption by transportation modes are calculated by
multiplying the trip length of vehicle traveling with the fuel consumed per vehicle#
!m The fuel consumption of passenger car, bus and lorry adopted in this study is
based on the average fuel consumption per vehicle#!m analy7ed from the )9
<ighway 9tatistics, %222 Table 505 and Table 500 provide details on the data
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %"*
Table 505 9ummary 9tatistics for 6assenger *ars, -..2 # %222
S+7r&$8 5S5 D$par%#$n% +; Transp+r%a%i+n, F)WA, '999
Table 500 9ummary 9tatistics for Two#Axle Truc!s, -..2 # %222
S+7r&$8 5S5 D$par%#$n% +; Transp+r%a%i+n, F)WA, '999
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %"+
@eferring to the data from the @oad Transport Department -... H %22%, for the
new vehicle registration, 0/%41 of the total vehicles are passenger car using petrol
while 2%%1 is passenger car using diesel Bus is only 2241 of the total vehicle
registered with more then .21 of the bus using diesel Table 503 and 50/ depicts
the new vehicle registration based on fuel type in year -..., %222 and %22%
respectively
Table 503 No of New :ehicle @egistration Based on &uel Types
S+7r&$8 C+ns74%an%As $s%i#a%i+n ;r+# Transp+r% S%a%is%i&s Ma4a"sia
Table 50/ 6roportion of new vehicle registration based on fuel types
S+7r&$8 C+ns74%an%As $s%i#a%i+n ;r+# Transp+r% S%a%is%i&s Ma4a"sia
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %&#
0$8$# Do Not-in' an) Do So1et-in' F(e6 Con(14tion
The forecasted number of vehicles by types of fuel is shown as in Table 50E
and Table 50. ;hile the total fuel consumption by passenger car, bus and lorry is
determined as in Table 532 and Table 53- The fuel consumption is also based on
Do Nothing and Do 9omething scenarios
&igure 5-/ and &igure 5-E present the forecasted total petrol and diesel
consumed by the vehicles in year %220, %2-2, %2-0 and %2%2 respectively &rom the
figures, it is seen that if the modal split set up is achieved +by year %2%2,, the petrol
consumption may be reduced by about 5/1 <owever, the decrease of diesel
consumption is not "uite significant although the modal split scenario is achieved
The reduction of diesel consumption may be only around -.1 The significant
decrease of petrol consumption would occur if the set up modal split target of 52
+6*ar, = 32 +6ublic, by Government of Malaysia is achieved )nder the 52=32 modal
split, the petrol consumption may be reduced by about 521 and although it is a
significant decrease in petrol consumption the increase of diesel, however, is not
relatively high +only %/1,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %&%
Table 50E &orecasted No of :ehicles +Do Nothing 9cenario,
Table 50. &orecasted No of :ehicles +Do 9omething 9cenario,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %&"
Table 532 &orecasted &uel *onsumption +Do Nothing 9cenario,
Table 53- &orecasted &uel *onsumption +Do 9omething 9cenario,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %&&
&igure 5-/ &orecasted 6etrol *onsumption by @oad Transport 9ector +literIday,
&igure 5-E &orecasted Diesel *onsumption by @oad Transport 9ector +literIday,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %&'
0$9 Ener'. Con(14tion in Tran4ortation Se%tor
In this study, the future trip generation +both person trips and vehicle trips, was
obtained by employing the trip generation model that was formulated in the previous
studies By utili7ing the models, besides having the number of trips, several trips
characteristics of the study area was also established This involves the average travel
distance of trip ma!er>s +vehicles or passengers, The vehicle#!ilometer or passenger#
!ilometer is the !ey point in estimating the energy consumed in transportation sector
Table 53% below shows the energy use by various types of vehicles based on
passenger travel distance
Table 53% 'nergy )se by :arious Types of :ehicles
No :ehicle Type
'nergy )se
+btuIpassenger#mile,
- 9ingle#occupancy automobile E,432
% New heavy rail 4,2E2
4 *arpool %,4.2
5 8ld heavy rail +existing, %,4%2
0 Aight rail transit %,0.2
3 Bus -,5%2
/ AircraftU 4,333
S+7r&$8 Grava <'99@=, F Davis $% a4 <'99'=
0$9$# Roa) Tran4ort
In 9ection 53- of this report, the forecasted total fuel consumption by road
transport modes till year %2%2 has been highlighted The fuel consumption consists
of petrol and diesel @eferring to Davis $% a4 +%22%, there is about -%0,222 btu in one
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %&$
gallon gasoline and -4E,/22 btu in one gallon diesel 8n the other hand, the National
'nergy Balance +%222, states that -222 toe X 544 TF petrol and -222 toe X 5%5.3
TF diesel After adopting that - btu X -,200 $oule, the total energy consumed in road
transport sector based on both scenarios could be illustrated as in &igure /- and /%
@eferring to &igure 5-. and 5%2, it is seen that in MDo NothingN scenario the
consumption of petrol would achieve %2,-5% !toeIyear and diesel about /,50/
!toeIyear by %2%2 ;hile the consumption of petrol would only about -.,%24
!toeIyear and diesel at /,0.3 !toeIyear in MDo 9omethingN scenario
&igure 5-. &orecasted 6etrol *onsumption by @oad Transport 9ector +!toeIyear,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %&(
&igure 5%2 &orecasted Diesel *onsumption by @oad Transport 9ector +!toeIyear,
0$9$* Rai6 Tran4ort
&igure 5%2 shows the forecasted energy consumed by rail transport until year
%2%2 The rail transport mode involves the intercity, commuter and transit Most of
the rail transport passengers choose transit as their transport mode @eferring to
(TMB data, it was estimated that the intercity passenger travel distance is about
422!m ;hile the travel distance for transit passengers was estimated only -2!m in
average
Table 534 &orecasted 'nergy *onsumption of @ail Transport
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %&)
0$9$/ Air Tran4ort
According to the data from Malaysia Airports Berhad, it was estimated that the
average travel distance for domestic flights is /E2!m ;hile for international flights
the average travel distance achieve 4,402!m It needs to be emphasised here that the
calculation of the forecasted fuel consumption of air transport involve departure and
arrival passengers The forecasted energy consumed by the air transport till year
%2%2 as shown in Table 535
Table 535 &orecasted 'nergy *onsumption of Air Transport
0$9$0 Tota6 Ener'. Con(1e) b. Roa)D Rai6 an) Air Tran4ort
This section summari7es the forecasted total energy use by road, rail and air
transport mode in Malaysia up to the next twenty years Table 530 and Table 533
tabulated the total energy use based on the Do Nothing and Do 9omething scenarios
;hile &igures 5%- and 5%% shows the energy use in graph format
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %&*
Table 530 &orecasted 'nergy )se in Transportation 9ector +Do Nothing,
Table 533 &orecasted 'nergy )se in Transportation 9ector +Do 9omething,
&igure 5%- &orecasted 'nergy )se in Transportation 9ector +Do Nothing,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %&+
&igure 5%% &orecasted 'nergy )se in Transportation 9ector +Do 9omething,
0$: Con%6(ion an) Re%o11en)ation
9everal points could be concluded from the energy use in the transportation
sector study that has been successfully completed The conclusions are highlighted as
follows=
In recent times, the transportation sector accounts for about 521 of the total
energy consumed in Malaysia This phenomenon indicates transportation is the
highest sector consuming energyL
The motori7ation levels of motorcars in the past ten years increase with 3/E1
annual rate while the population growth is only %0/1L
In terms of number of vehicles, even though the number of public transport
vehicles has been increasing, the proportion of the public transport vehicles to
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %'#
all vehicles is decreasing The proportion of public vehicles is only %441 of the
total road transport vehicles in year %22%L
It is only 251 of the total new registered passenger car +-...#%22%, using
diesel while the rest +..31, are petrol carsL
The transport modal share in %22% shows that E0/-1 of passengers is served by
road transport The rail passengers is about -5201 while air transport carries
2%51 of the total passengersL
Based on the trip generation model developed in this study which is based on
the model from the <ND6 9tudy in -..-, it is forecasted that more than %0E
million person trips per day may use the transportation modes by year %2%2 and
around E21 would use the passenger car
The total fuel consumption +petrol T diesel, under Do Nothing scenario is
around .- million liters per day while for Do 9omething scenario is more than
EE4 million liters per day +decrease up to 41,L
If a 52 = 32 modal split between 6assenger *ar and 6ublic transport +Bus T @ail,
is achieved in year %2%2, the petrol consumption will reduce significantly +up to
521, while the increase of diesel consumption would only %/1L
Although there is a reduction in petrol and diesel consumption due to the 52 = 32
modal split +if this is achieved,, the rail services system would have to cope with
more than 4E million passengers per day by year %2%2L
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %'%
It was forecasted that the total energy use by road, rail and air transport modes
would achieve 44,50- !toe by year %2%2 +Do 9omething 9cenario, with the
proportion of road transport E2-1, rail 2/1, and air transport -.%1
Based on the study findings as mentioned, some recommendation regarding to the
energy use in transportation sector could be put forward=
The study has shown that a shift in the number of passengers from passenger
car to public transport would reduce the fuel consumption and as well as the
emission levels Therefore, all the factors that may increase the demand for
public transport modes should be ta!en into consideration It is essential to stress
here that improvement to the public transport system has to be embar!ed upon
on a significant level and comprehensive scale
Besides the socioeconomic variables, there are supply variables that could
persuade the people to choose their transport modes The transport authorities
and particularly the rail services operator need to consider these variables in
their policy during the planning and operation of rail system The supply
variables involves amongst others=
in#vehicle travel timeL
access, waiting and transfer timesL
travel costL
"ualitative and attitudinal variables such as comfort, reliability, and
safety and the wish to have a different mode choice
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %'"
Re,eren%e
Abdullah, M 9, +%224,, Development in Malaysia>s @ail Transport 9ector, 6aper
Material in @ailtech %224 International *onference and 'xhibition, %/#%. May %224
Ban!s, F <, +%22%,, Introduction to Transportation 'ngineering, %nd 'dition,
McGraw#<ill, New ?or!
Davis $% a4, +%22%,, Transportation 'nergy Data Boo!= 'dition %%, for )9
Department of 'nergy
Dept of 9tatistics Malaysia, +%22%,, Malaysian 'conomic 9tatistics#Time 9eries,
6utra$aya
'conomic 6lanning )nit#FI*A, +-..3,, The &easibility 9tudy on (uala Aumpur
8uter @ing @oad 6ro$ect in Malaysia, &inal @eport
Grava, 9 +%224,, )rban Transportation 9ystem= *hoices for *ommunities, McGraw#
<ill, New ?or!
FI*A, +-..%,, <ighway Networ! Development 6lan +<ND6, 9tudy in Malaysia,
Interim @eport +-,, (uala Aumpur
(anafani, A (, +-.E4,, Transportation Demand Analysis, McGraw#<ill, New ?or!
(lang :alley 6lanning Division#FI*A, +-...,, A 9tudy on Integrated Transportation
9trategies for 'nvironmental Improvement in (uala Aumpur +9M)@T#(A,, &inal
@eport
Ministry of Transport Malaysia, +%22%,, Transport 9tatistics Malaysia %22%,
6utra$aya
Montgomery, D * and @unger G *, +%224,, Applied 9tatistics and 6robability for
'ngineers, 4rd 'dition, Fohn ;iley K 9ons, New ?or!
National 'nergy Balance %22%, +%224,, Ministry of 'nergy, *ommunications and
Multimedia, (uala Aumpur Malaysia
8rtu7ar, F D and ;illumsen, A G, +-..2,, Modelling Transport, Fohn ;iley K
9ons, New ?or!
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %'&
)domsri @ and (ongboontiam 6, +%224,, &uel *onsumption Models of <ousehold
:ehicles in *hiangmai )rban Area, Fournal of the 'astern Asia 9ociety for
Transportation 9tudies, :ol 0, %224, &u!uo!a Fapan
?usoff, G M, +%224,, Mobility of 6eople= A@T 'xperience, 6aper 6resented in Best
6ractices 'ngineering *onference, E#. 9eptember %224, (uala Aumpur
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %''
C!A"TER 2
FEASIBILITY AND "OTENTIAL OF
SWITC!ING TO NGV FOR COMMERCIAL VE!ICLES
IN MALAYSIA
SUMMARY
Due to rapid economic growth, the usage of fuel especially petrol and diesel for
transportation sector has increased tremendously This has caused Malaysian oil
reserve to decrease rapidly over the past decade As a result, the government is
encouraging the use of alternative fuel in the transportation sector 8ne of the
proposals is the encouragement to use natural gas +NG, as an alternative fuel and
proposing a suitable policy for it 9tudy on natural gas vehicle +NG:, has been
underta!en to identify the deficiency and to improve the previous policies This study
involved respondents +consumers, from public transports +taxi driver, taxi and bus
companies, and owners of pump station to identify their opinion about the policy
Data collection to identify an overview of the current status of NG: development
including mar!et activities and the future prospects of NG: in Malaysia are
conducted by interviewing respondents
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %'$
2$#$ Intro)(%tion
Natural gas is categori7ed as a fossil fuel because it was formed from the
remains of tiny sea animals and plants from %22#522 million year ago The pressure
combined with the heat of earth transforms this organic mixture into petroleum and
natural gas Its main ingredient is #$%han$, therefore its can be used as an alternative
fuel for transport There are many advantages of natural gas compared to petrol and
diesel as a fuel The primary advantages are the fact that natural gas can improve
thermal efficiency and reduce emissions of the engine It also helps to curb the
growing air pollution and the greenhouse effect because it is cleaner and also cheaper
than petrol and diesel
Modes of transportation in the )9A, )nited (ingdom, *anada, *hina, India,
Argentina, and Bra7il and also in 6a!istan are already using natural gas as a fuel
Natural gas used in developed nations is mainly because of the environmental
benefits Meanwhile in developing countries, it is mainly because of the economic
factors Natural gas has been used as a fuel for transport since -.%2>s To date, Italy
has about %52 compressed natural gas +*NG, refuelling station and about 422,222
NG:s on the road New Gealand has about %02,222 vehicles converted to natural gas
and refuelling networ! of about %02 stations Argentina being at the fore front of the
NG: league has /22,222 NG:s and has over E22 refuelling stations 8ther country
li!e Thailand, Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, )9A, *anada, &rance, )nited (ingdom,
<olland and Australia has only few NG:s +IANG:, %225,
Natural gas in Malaysia can be as considered economically beneficial in future
because it will reduce operation cost and reduces foreign exchange of oil import The
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %'(
economic advantage of using natural gas as a vehicular fuel is more apparent in fleet
operations, where a vehicle travels the same or similar route everyday, and returns to
the same location for refuelling Beside that natural gas is also capable of ma!ing the
environment cleaner because it>s unleaded and reduces a discharge of emissions than
petrol and diesel
The vehicles that have been converted to NG: can also use petrol or diesel as
fuel, so it>s easier for consumer to use this fuel )sually consumers use any type of
fuel that can be obtained easily and priced reasonably The idea that using natural gas
is dangerous is totally unproven as they are safer than petrol at ambient temperature
8ver 52 years worldwide experience with NG: has prove that the inherent safety
and integrity of compressed natural gas storage tan!s and refueling system is save
enough if not saver than any other conventional fuel
As Malaysian government attempt to encourage a new environmental friendly
fuel, natural gas has been recogni7ed as an alternative fuel for transport instead petrol
and diesel @eferred to ?"+%+ Pr+%+&+4, this is one of the progressive programs in
order to decrease the emissions of greenhouse gas about 01 over the amount in -...
periodic for the year %22E to %2-% The transportation is the sector that produces the
highest greenhouse gas emission in Malaysia Therefore, that>s one of the main
factors why the government encouraging this sector to use natural gas as an
alternative fuel The other reason is Malaysia has large amount of natural gas reserve
than oil
@esearch in Australia shows that vehicles which use compressed natural gas
+*NG, could reduce about --0% !g greenhouse gas for -%,222 !m traveled +AG8,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %')
%22-, <owever the actual results depend on the si7e and transport fuel consumption,
and distance traveled Therefore a comprehensive study must be conducted to
identify suitable policies to public and private vehicle everyone in Malaysia to use
natural gas as fuel A similar study has been done in other country such as in )9A
and 'urope +e#mail,
In Malaysia, natural gas has been used as an alternative fuel for commercial
vehicles especially for taxis 6etronas had introduced the NG: *ommercial
6rogram +NG:6, in -..- to encourage the usage of natural gas with the target to
convert about --22 petrol vehicles by the year -..4 <owever, today there are about
-2 222 NG:s many of them taxi and about 52 gas refuelling stations in Malaysia
+6etronas NG:, %225,
2$*$ S(rve. Data
This section discusses about the collected data in this study The collected data
include current policies, world natural gas reserves, number of vehicles in Malaysia
and other related data will be discussed extensively in this section &irst part of this
section is started with a review about the current situation and policies that involve
both natural gas and NG: Meanwhile the second part discusses about the natural gas
reserves ;orld reserve and the importance of natural gas in Malaysia are also
elaborated in this section &urthermore, NG: in Malaysia and other countries will
also be presented
Due to many advantages of NG: especially because of energy security of a
country, the government of Malaysia encourages the usage of natural gas as an
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %'*
alternative fuel for public transportation in (lang :alley where natural gas refueling
stations are easier to find compared to other states Natural gas is not only cheaper,
but it also reduces air pollution in city li!e (uala Aumpur, Fohor Bahru and 6enang
The incentives programs introduced by government to encourage consumers to use
natural gas are +Department of 'nvironment, %22%,=
'xception of import duty and tax for conversion !it
(eeping the price of natural gas is 021 lower than gasoline
@oad tax reduction scheme,
i 021 for mono # gas vehicles +only use natural gas,
ii %01 for bi#fuel vehicles +use petrol and natural gas,
)ntil 8ctober %225, there were more than --,022 vehicles mostly taxis already
converted to NG:s This data include -222 mono gas taxis that have been introduced
in (lang :alley area and 52 natural gas refuelling station for all these vehicles
+6etronas NG:, %225,
-
<owever, this is still below the expected target from the
government policy which is 021 of taxis in (lang :alley use natural gas as fuel in
%225
2$*$#$ Nat(ra6 Ga Reerve
Before the policies are implemented for natural gas, the most important thing
to !now is the reserve of natural gas in Malaysia as well as throughout the world
;orld natural gas demand continues to grow and increase its mar!et share inline
with the total world primary energy consumption According to the International
-
Data until 8ctober %225 obtained from 6etronas NG: 9dn Bhd
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %'+
'nergy 8utloo! +%222,, natural gas remains the fastest growing fuel component of
world energy consumption &rom the forecast period from -../ to %2%2, natural gas
usage is pro$ected to be more than double which will reach -3/ trillion cubic feet
+Tcf, in %2%2 compared to only E% Tcf in -../ in Malaysia
8ver the -../ to %2%2 period, the natural gas usage increase tremendously
around the world except in Middle 'ast and Africa Developing countries especially
in Asia and 9outh and *entral America will set the highest growth of natural gas
usage Aarge percentage of increment is also pro$ected in industriali7ed countries,
including the )nited 9tate, 'uropean )nion and @ussia
The world natural gas reserves were estimated at 0,025 Tcf The former 9oviet
)nion has only about 31 of world oil reserves but they have about 521 of world
natural gas reserves This is mostly +about 4201, located in the @ussian &ederation
+'nergy Information Administration, %225, This ma!es @ussia as the largest reserve
of natural gas in the world, more than double of the second largest reserve, Iran
Geographically, natural gas reserves are more than oil reserves In the Middle 'ast,
Satar, Ira", 9audi Arabia and )A' also have a very large reserve of natural gas
@eserve to production ratio is exceeding -22 years in Middle 'ast and Africa, and
E45 years in the former 9oviet )nion Meanwhile, 9outh and *entral America have
another /-0 years but in North America and 'urope the ratio are relative low, at --5
years and -E4 years respectively The reserve to production ratios average for natural
gas for the world is 345 years compared with only 5- years for oil Table 0- shows
world natural gas reserves by countries

ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %$#
Table 0- ;orld natural gas reserves by country as Fanuary -, %224 +'IA%225,
*ountry @eserves +Tcf, 6ercentage +1,
;orld 0,025 -222
Top %2 *ountries 5,//E E3E
@ussian -,3E2 420
Iran E-% -5E
Satar 02. .%
9audi Arabia %%0 5-
)nited Arab 'mirates %-% 4.
)nited 9tates -E/ 45
Algeria -32 %.
:ene7uela -5E %/
Nigeria -%5 %4
Ira" --2 %2
Indonesia .4 -/
Malaysia /% -4
Tur!menistan /- -4
)7be!istan 33 -%
(a7a!hstan 30 -%
Netherlands 3% --
*anada 32 --
(uwait 04 -2
*hina 04 -2
Mexico . 2%
@est of the world /44 -44
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %$%
2$*$*$ Nat(ra6 Ga Reerve in Ma6a.ia
Malaysia has /% trillion cubic feet +Tcf, of natural gas reserves Natural gas
production has been rising steadily in recent years, reaching -. Tcf in %22-, up
sharply from -0 Tcf in %222 Natural gas consumption in %22- was estimated at --
Tcf, with ANG exports of around 2E Tcf +mostly to Fapan, 9outh (orea, and
Taiwan,
%
8ne of the most active locations in Malaysia for gas exploration and
development is the Malaysia#Thailand Foint Development Area +FDA,, located in the
lower part of the Gulf of Thailand and governed by the Malaysia#Thailand Foint
Authority +MTFA, The MTFA was established by the two governments for $oint
exploration of the once#disputed FDA
A fifty H fifty partnerships between 6etronas and Amerada <ess is being
developed in the location, while the 6etroleum Authority of Thailand +6TT, and
6etronas also share e"ual interests in the remaining locations 6TT and 6etronas
announced an agreement in November -... to proceed with the development of a
gas pipeline from the FDA to a processing plant in 9ong!la, Thailand, and a pipeline
lin!ing the Thai and Malaysian gas grids as well Malaysia and Thailand will
eventually ta!e half of the gas produced The rest of initial production will remain to
Malaysia
The pro$ect had been controversial in Thailand because they are opposed by
local residents in 9ong!la along the pipeline route In May %22%, the Thai
government announced the final decision to commence construction on the pro$ect
later in %22%, through the pipeline route was altered slightly to avoid some populated
%
Data on 9eptember %224
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %$"
areas *onstruction has begun, and the delivery of natural gas to Malaysia is
scheduled to begin by mid#%220
'xxon Mobil announced in March %22% that they would move forward with the
development of the offshore Bintang natural gas field in the 9outh *hina 9ea The
field contains about - Tcf of reserves, and it is expected to reach pea! output of 440
MmcfId The commercial production at Bintang gas field began in &ebruary %224
Malaysia accounted for approximately -51 of total world ANG exports in
%22% After long delay, Malaysia preceded a long#planned expansion of Bintulu ANG
complex in 9arawa! In &ebruary %222, 6etronas signed a contract with a consortium
headed by (ellogg Brown and @oot for construction of the MANG Tiga facility This
consist two ANG li"uefaction trains and a total capacity of /3 million metric tons
+4/2 Bcf, per year, which was completed in April %224 The Bintulu facility is
among the largest ANG li"uefaction in the world, with the total capacity of %4
million metric tons +-- Tcf, per year
Most of the production from the new ANG trains will be sold contracts to
Fapan To!yo 'lectric 6ower +T'6*8,, To!yo Gas, and *hubu 'lectric have signed
contracts for ANG from the pro$ect A fire at the MANG Tiga plant in August %224,
has forced a temporary shutdown for reparation and the facility bac! to normal
operation in April %225
In addition, Malaysia exports -02 million cubic feet of ANG per day +MmcfId,
to 9ingapore via pipeline 9urprisingly, Malaysia also is an importer of gas from
Indonesia 6etronas signed an agreement in April %22- with Indonesian oil and gas
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %$&
company 6ertamina for the import of gas from *onocoQs ;est Natuna offshore field
in Indonesian waters
The move is being seen as part of Malaysia>s strategy to become a hub for
natural gas integration in 9outheast Asia Natural gas delivery from the pipeline
commenced in mid#%224 Additionally there also have been preliminary discussions
of a pro$ect to lin! gas deposits from 9arawa! to the 6hilippine
As the frontrunner in Malaysian NG: industry development, 6etronas>s
primary focus is to convert commercial vehicles, particularly the petrol taxi to NG:
taxi Today there are about 40 NG: refueling station and more than E,422 vehicles
running on natural gas
4
+email, In addition, approximately -,222 mono gas vehicles
have been introduced in Malaysia from $oint venture between 6etronas and Marta
Automobile &urthermore the NG: transit bus program is expected to be
implemented soon be in 6utra$aya
2$*$/$ Nat(ra6 Ga Ve-i%6e in Ma6a.ia an) Ot-er Co(ntrie
NG: usage throughout the world has increased rapidly in recent years This
situation is mainly due to the following factors=
Natural gas is relatively cheap +compared to other fossil fuel li!e petrol and
diesel,
The availability of natural gas
Growing awareness regarding environmental pollution
4
Data until Fanuary %225 +International Association for NG:,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %$'
Today about 2-E1 of world transport uses natural gas as fuel There are
approximately 40 million NG: +IANG:, %225, throughout the world out of 302
million vehicles 9ubse"uently some international mar!ets have made drastic
changes to encourage consumers to use natural gas vehicles
*ountries li!e )9A, *anada, Australia, New Gealand, Argentina, 9weden and
Italy have a long established record on the usage of natural gas as an alternative fuel
for vehicle In these countries, natural gas vehicles are increasing rapidly In other
countries although there are move towards this scenario but the development is not
so impressive The reasons are because the NG: mar!ets in these countries are
mainly based on economic consideration Besides that, the high investment cost for
converting to NG: is also a problem Another problem is the huge management cost
involved in setting up the infrastructure such as natural gas refuelling station and
pipeline
NG: have been introduced in 'urope, *anada, New Gealand, Australia,
Argentina and )9A for a long time Argentina, who is the frontrunner of NG:, has
-,%54,2%5 of NG: and records an average of 4222 vehicles per month converted to
NG: Moreover they have setup about -,-20 natural gas refuelling stations
5
Meanwhile, Italy has been using NG: since -.42>s and to date they have about
522,E22 NG: on the road with 534 natural gas refuelling station
0
:ene7uela also
currently introduced National 6rogram for NG: and constructed -52 natural gas
refuelling station all over the country
5
Data on March %225
0
Data on Fuly %224
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %$$
*anada has more than %2,020 vehicles converted to NG: *anadian
government also introduced many incentives such as the incentive for installing
conversion !it to encourage *anadians to use NG: Meanwhile )9A has about
-42,222 natural gas vehicles where natural gas has been used as a fuel for transport
since -.32>s
The development and the use of NG: in Asia are still lower compared to
'uropean )nion, 9outh and North America Asian countries li!e India, *hina, Fapan,
Indonesia and 6a!istan have recently started using natural gas as a fuel for
transportation &or example India already has -0.,-0. vehicles using natural gas
followed by *hina, where more than 3.,422 vehicles use this fuel ;hile 6a!istan
has about 052,222 vehicles, Fapan has more than -E,534 vehicles and Indonesia
about 5,332 NG:
In Malaysia, the consumption of natural gas has also been increasing rapidly in
the recent yearsL the ma$or consumer is oil and gas industry 9mall amount of natural
gas are also used in transportation sector, following the launch of government
campaign to promote its use Meanwhile in Terengganu, 6etronas had introduced a
pilot program to promote natural gas involving %- converted vehicles and one natural
gas refuelling station in -.E3 Table 0% show top countries with number of NG: and
refuelling station +IANG:, %225,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %$(
Table 0% ;orld natural gas vehicles by country
*ountry :ehicles @efuelling 9tation
Argentina -,%54,2%5 -,-20
Bra7il 322,222 322
6a!istan 052,222 0/5
Italy 522,E22 534
India -0.,-0. -33
)9A -42,222 -,422
*hina 3.,422 %/2
'gypt 0%,222 /.
:ene7uela 02,222 -52
)!raine 50,222 -42
2$*$0$ N(1ber o, Ve-i%6e in Ma6a.ia
As a result of rapid income growth per capita in Malaysia, the number of
vehicles has increased tremendously ;ith the increase of oil price, +petrol and
diesel, and the decreasing oil reserve in this country, NG: seems to be a better
alternative for Malaysia As the biggest national car manufacturer, 6roton and
6erodua could play an important role to manufacture vehicles and conversion !it for
NG: in the future The increasing number of vehicles in Malaysia from -.E/ till
%22% is inspected in Table 04 +F6F, %225,
Table 04 Number of :ehicles in Malaysia +F6F, %22%,
?ear Type of :ehicle
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %$)
6rivate 6ublic :ehicle
Motorcycle *ar Bus Taxi
<ireK
Drive
*argo 8ther Total
-.E/ -,.%.,./E -,403,3/E -.,54. %5,E3E 4,/5- %44,-24 -23,3// 4,3/5,5E5
-.EE %,242,5-E -,5%/,%E4 %2,50% %3,-3- 4,.4/ %50,%4% --%,%%3 4,E30,/2.
-.E. %,-E%,53E -,045,-33 %-,.E5 %E,-%2 5,%4% %34,0./ -%2,3%. 5,-00,-.3
-..2 %,4EE,5// -,3/E,.E2 %5,20/ 42,//5 5,34- %EE,5/. -4%,2-3 5,05/,5-5
-..- %,0.0,/5. -,E%5,3/. %3,-5/ 44,555 0,244 4-4,0-5 -54,5/% 5,.5%,24E
-..% %,/3%,333 -,.5%,2-3 %/,E%/ 40,0.3 0,40/ 444,3/5 -0%,3.E 0,%0.,E45
-..4 %,./2,/3. %,2EE,422 %.,.%5 4E,%/E 0,/3% 40E,E2E -35,-.. 0,303,252
-..5 4,%./,5/5 %,42%,05/ 44,0%. 5%,%25 0,42E 4.4,E44 -/E,54. 3,%04,445
-..0 4,32E,5/0 %,004,0/5 43,222 53,E2/ E,-.0 552,/%4 %24,332 3,E./,545
-..3 4,.0-,.4- %,EE3,043 4E,.30 5.,5E0 .,./- 0-%,-30 %4/,34- /,3E3,3E5
-../ 5,4%E,../ 4,%/-,425 54,555 0-,%.4 -2,E%3 0/5,3%% %3.,.E4 E,002,53.
-..E 5,3.%,-E4 4,50%,E0% 50,354 05,0.2 -2,25% 0..,-5. %E3,E.E .,-5-,40/
-... 0,2E%,5/4 4,/E/,25/ 5/,3/5 00,3%3 -2,2%2 35%,./3 425,-40 .,.%.,.0-
%222 0,403,325 5,-50,.E% 5E,33% 03,-0% -2,544 330,%E5 4-0,3E/ -2,0.E,E25
%22- 0,32.,40- 5,00/,..% 5.,//- 03,0/. .,.E3 3E.,33E 4%.,-.E --,42%,050
%22% 0,E5%,3-/ 0,22-,%/4 0-,-0E 0E,233 -2,2/4 /-4,-5E 450,325 -%,2%-,.4.

The current number of vehicles data have not been published yet by the
Department of @oad and Transport +F6F, and Department of 9tatistic Table 04
shows that the total number of vehicles till %22% in Malaysia are -%,2%-,.4. The
percentage of vehicles by type are presented in &igure 0-
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %$*
&igure 0- 6ercentage of :ehicles by Type
&igure 0- shows that 5-321 of vehicles are car and 5E321 are motorcycle
that contributed to a larger number of vehicles in Malaysia Bus and taxi only
represents 254 1 and 25E 1 each respectively, while hire and drive, cargo, other
modes of transportation contributes about EEE 1 of Malaysia>s vehicles
&igure 0% below shows the rate of increased number of vehicles in this country
starting from -.E/ to %22%
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %$+
&igure 0% Increasing Number of :ehicles in Malaysia +-.E/ H %22%,
The increasing number of vehicles +bus and taxi, that is involved in the study is
shown in &igure 04
&igure 04 Number of 6ublic Transport +Bus and Taxi, from the year -.E/ to
%22%
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %(#
2$*$2 "ri%e o, Oi6 an) Nat(ra6 Ga in Ma6a.ia
The price of natural gas at pump station had been steady since -..% at @M
2030 per liter, while as %22%, petrol and diesel cost are @M -42 and @M 2/2- per
liter each respectively Therefore, there is more advantage for consumers to use NG:
especially in long term <owever due to the increase in world fuel price, the price of
fossil fuel increased again this year The new price for a liter of petrol, diesel and
NG: is presented in Table 05
Table 056rice of &uels in Malaysia
&uel 6rice
3
6etrol @M -5%
Diesel @M 2E4-
Natural Gas @M 20E0
2$/$ Met-o)o6o'.
9uitable methods had been adapted in order to obtain more information
regarding this topic The reference used for data collection are boo!s, $ournals,
internet, observations, "uestionnaires, interviews and visiting wor!shops that
installed the spare part for NG: The secondary data are mostly collected from
government body such as Department of 9tatistic, Department of @oad and
Transportation and other government agencies that are related to this study
9ite visits have also been done to identify the actual situation on the site and to
obtain some technical data This is necessary to obtain more information and
suggestions regarding the usage of natural gas directly from the mechanic and user
3
6rices on 8ctober %225
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %(%
@espondents have been pic!ed randomly to gather their suggestion Generally, there
are two types of data collected namely primary data and secondary data that will be
discussed in detail in the following sub section
2$/$# "ri1ar. Data Co66e%tion
Two methods are used to get the primary data ie by interviews and
"uestionnaires Interviews are conducted to collect "ualitative data from users and
suppliers who are involved directly or indirectly with natural gas vehicles
Suestionnaires are used to collect the responds especially from those who are already
using natural gas vehicles regarding their opinion about natural gas and NG: There
are also other methods used to collect the data, which is discussed below
Li%$ra%7r$ R$vi$>
Aiterature review is an important step to start the study In this stage, a lot of
information are collected especially from the internet, $ournals and reference boo!s
about scenario of natural gas vehicles in others country that have already introduced
this policy @eferences from $ournals provide information about the current
development of natural gas around the world All the information are necessary
especially to compare the current scenarios and achievements from the usage of
natural gas vehicles in Malaysia
In%$rvi$>s
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %("
Interviews are conducted on respondents that have experience with natural gas
vehicles to obtain their views and opinions about natural gas as an alternative fuel
The actual information and other related data can only be collected from these
interviews &or example the problems related to natural gas vehicles either from the
user or from supplier of natural gas could only be easily collected from interview It
is important to forecast all the data the estimate the situation and problems that will
be faced by the user and supplier as well as the policy in the future
Si%$ Visi%
Throughout the whole process of data collection, site visits have played a
ma$or role in order to get a clear view regarding the related problems of NG:
policies in this country The information obtained from site visits are used as the
supporting data for other presented information
G7$s%i+nnair$
Suestionnaires are substantial for collecting "uantitative data from a large
number of respondents It is compulsory to obtain their opinions and comments to
identify the problems faced by the NG: users, determine the prospect of potential
users in the future and to propose an appropriate policy for them
As mentioned earlier, there are three types of respondents involved in this
process They are=
6ublic Transports
i Taxis +NG: user,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %(&
ii Taxis +non NG: user,
iii Taxi *ompanies
iv Bus *ompanies
6ublic Transports
*ompanies and 8wners of 6ump 9tation
i Natural gas refueling stations
ii 8ther pump stations
&or obtaining the necessary information from companies and owners of pump
stations, conducting interviews seems to be a better way because there are only a
small number of them &or taxi drivers, all their comments and suggestions are
collected from "uestionnaires Therefore two sets of "uestionnaires and four sets of
interview "uestions that have been prepared for this study 9ome explanation about
these "uestionnaires and interview "uestions are discussed below=
+i, Suestionnaire for taxi drivers
Suestionnaire for taxi drivers have been divided into two sections &irst section is for
natural gas vehicle users and the other section for non natural gas vehicle users It is
necessary to have the opinion and comments from both sides because they will
become the pioneer NG: user in Malaysia
+ii, Suestionnaire for taxi and bus company managers
Different from the "uestionnaire for taxi drivers, this part focuses on the problems
faced for using NG: <opefully the public transportation companies +taxi or bus
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %('
company, can give their opinion or input in order to find the solution for the
problems faced natural gas user or non#user
+iii, Interview with the owners of pump station
The interview form is also divided into two divisionsL first part is the "uestions for
the companies or owners of pump station that sell natural gas Another set of
"uestion is set up for the owners of conventional pump station The "uestions allow
us to collect a "ualitative data on the problems faced at supply and demand as well as
the safety of NG: refueling station
2$/$* Se%on)ar. Data Co66e%tion
)nli!e primary data collection, the secondary data collection is conducted to
collect some information about the current situation and condition related to natural
gas policy in the country These data are necessary for this study because=
To recogni7e the current policies
To identify the agencies that is related to this study
To identify similar policies in other countries
To identify the actual transport data in Malaysia
To analy7e the economic aspect from using NG:
The methods to collect the secondary data and defining the entire process
above are discussed in the following sub section
Id$n%i;i&a%i+n +; %h$ C7rr$n% P+4i&"
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %($
In identifying all related policies regarding natural gas vehicles and natural gas
storage, information from individuals and related government bodies are useful as
references Beside that, to ensure all the information obtained are correct, these
information are compared with the data collected from Department of @oad and
Transport, Department of 9tatistics and other private agencies li!e 6etronas NG: etc
Id$n%i;i&a%i+n +; %h$ R$4a%$d A($n&i$s
Information from 6etronas NG: and Gas Malaysia are obtained in order to
identify all related agencies and individuals involved in natural gas vehicle programs
and natural gas storage 8ther related information is referred to individuals that are
considered expert in this field and other agencies that are willing to contribute to this
study
Id$n%i;i&a%i+n +; P+4i&i$s in O%h$r C+7n%ri$s
In order to get some information about similar policies in other countries and
the problems faced by these countries from natural gas usage and natural gas vehicle
programs, references such as boo!s, $ournals and maga7ines are referred There are
also some secondary data collected from the homepage of agencies that have already
implemented similar programs on natural gas vehicles
Id$n%i;i&a%i+n +; G7an%i%" +; V$hi&4$s
To identify the number of vehicles in this country, relevant data are collected
from the Department of @oad and Transport and from the annual report published by
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %((
Department of 9tatistics These data are used to estimate the total number of
registered vehicles that may be converted to natural gas vehicle in the future These
data are also used to predict the total number of vehicles in Malaysia in the future
2$/$/ Con)(%tin' E%ono1i% Ana6.i
'conomic analysis or *ost#Benefit Analysis is used to calculate the economic
impact from the usage of natural gas There are number of factors that will influence
the economic analysis for this study The factors are types of engine used +petrol or
diesel,, si7e of vehicles +light, medium or heavy duty, and annual traveled distance
To analy7e the economic benefit from using natural gas as an alternative fuel in
Malaysia, the life cycle cost formulae have been adapted for this study The
economic analysis for NG: will $ustify the possibility of using natural gas as an
alternative fuel in this country The cost#benefit analysis conducted in this study is
only for taxis, private transports, buses and truc!s
The computation of potential savings from NG: is calculated by the following
e"uation
9 X D Z*
o
6
o
H *
g
6
g
[ T ZM
o
H M
g
[ +0-,
6otential savings result from conversion of commercial vehicles to NG: will
be discussed in following section
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %()
2$0$ Re(6t an) )i%(ion
This section will discuss the results on NG: based on references and the data
collected This data will be used to predict natural gas and NG: usage in the future
Then, the study analyses the economic aspect and the differences between
conventional fuel vehicles and NG:
2$0$# "re)i%tion ,or N(1ber o, "(b6i% Tran4ort in Ma6a.ia
&orecast for the future can be predicted by referring to the increasing rate of
vehicles in the recent year The total number of public transport that is expected to
use NG: until %2%2 is presented in Table 00
2$0$* "(b6i% Tran4ortation
As discussed earlier, public transportation involved in this study are only buses
and taxis &or taxis, the "uestionnaires are divided into two sectionL first section for
NG: users and the other is for non H NG: users &or buses, the managers or owners
of the bus companies are interviewed to obtain "ualitative data because commercial
bus companies have never used natural gas as a fuel
P7-4i& Transp+r% <NGV 7s$r=
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %(*
There are two types of NG: in this country, firstly mono H gas and second is
bi#fuel vehicle Table 03 below summari7es the results obtained from "uestionnaire
for NG: users in Malaysia
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %(+
Table 00 6rediction of Total 6ublic Transport +bus and taxi, from
year %220 until %2%2
?ear Bus Taxi
%220 32,-2E 3.,-22
%223 3%,5/% /-,0E3
%22/ 35,E40 /5,2/-
%22E 3/,-.E /3,00/
%22. 3.,03% /.,25%
%2-2 /-,.%0 E-,0%E
%2-- /5,%E. E5,2-4
%2-% /3,30% E3,5..
%2-4 /.,2-0 EE,.E5
%2-5 E-,4/. .-,5/2
%2-0 E4,/5% .4,.00
%2-3 E3,-23 .3,55-
%2-/ EE,53. .E,.%3
%2-E .2,E4% -2-,5-%
%2-. .4,-.3 -24,E./
%2%2 .0,00. -23,4E4
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %)#
Table 03&eedbac! obtained based on the survey carried out
on NG: user +taxi driver,
9urvey *hoice K Answers @esults +1,
Type of fuel Natural gas only
Bi fuel
5/-%
0%EE
Government policies for NG: Agree
Disagree
Not 9ure
8thers
34%E
%.5%
3E3
255
6ricing control by government Need
No need
Not sure
./-%
-44
-00
6romotion by government Good
6oor
Not sure
0/0
E3%E
/./
6roblem faced by NG: users @efueling station
'xpensive !it
Time to refuelling
Not sure
E542
-23-
530
255
@educe air pollution ?es
No
Not sure
EE/%
%30
E34
9afety aspect 9atisfied
Dissatisfied
Not sure
8ther
533E
%42-
%.5%
2E.
N+n NGV 7s$r
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %)%
About %-3 respondents +non NG: taxi driver, have been interviewed for this
study @esults from this "uestionnaire are summari7ed in Table 0/
Table 0/ &eedbac! obtained based on the survey carried out
on non # NG: user +taxi driver,
9urvey *hoice K Answers @esults +1,
Type of fuel 6etrol
Diesel
/E%5
%-/0
@eady to used NG: in the future ?es
No
Not sure
8ther
/3E0
EE2
-454
2.%
6ricing of natural gas *heap
'xpensive
Not sure
8ther
E0-.
5-/
.%3
-4E
6romotion by government Good
6oor
Not sure
-%.3
/.-/
/5-
6roblem faced to used NG: @efueling station
'xpensive !it
Time to refueling
Not sure
3230
4-2%
534
4/2
@educe air pollution ?es
No
Not sure
E4E2
%4-
-4E.
B7s C+#pani$s
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %)"
)nli!e managers of taxi companies, managers of bus companies did not give
much cooperation for this study This is maybe because they are not involved directly
as a natural gas user 8nly three companies gave their cooperation in the study The
companies are Transnasional '!spress 9dn Bhd +@espondent -,, Airport *oach 9dn
Bhd +@espondent %, and Triton 9dn Bhd +@espondent 4, All these companies are
agree with the policies introduced by government for public transport @esults from
the interview are summari7ed in Table 0E
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %)&
Table 0E &eedbac! obtained based on the survey carried out on
managers of bus companies
9urvey @esults K 8pinions
Natural Gas
*onsumption
9uitable to use natural gas as a fuel because it is
environmental friendly
Need subsidy from government and are convinced
that operation cost will decrease after converting to NG
Not ready to use natural gas because high capital and
do not have enough infrastructures
Government
6olicies
6olicy necessary for bus companies are price subsidy
for price of bus and natural gas
Government must control the price of natural gas so it
becomes stable
9ubsidies are necessary for conversion !it, exemption
of tax when purchasing spare parts and importing NG: bus
Improve the entire infrastructure
6roblems that will
be faced by
Natural Gas users
9pare part costs for NG: bus are more expensive
No conscientious study especially on maintenance and
capital cost per !ilometer
Not enough infrastructures li!e pipe line and
refuelling station
Technical problems ie about the efficiency when bus
is running natural gas
6rice subsidies problems either for conversion !it or
natural gas supply
No professional staff, less spare parts in the mar!et
and could not afford to construct private refuelling station
6romotion Bus companies did not get any information about
natural gas either from the government or private bodies
6romotion must be more aggressive ie by road
shows, campaign and interaction program between government
and bus companies
'nvironment Natural gas vehicles can reduce environmental
pollution and greenhouse effect
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %)'
2$0$/$ Co14anie an) Mana'er o, "(14 Station
9even managers of 6etronas natural gas refuelling station and six non natural
gas pump station managers have been interviewed in order to get the necessary
information The important parts of the interview are discussed below
Mana($rs +; Na%7ra4 Gas R$;7$44in( S%a%i+n
8ut of seven surveys, from which two are from Fohor Bahru 6etronas
refuelling stations, it is found that they have been providing natural gas service from
two to four years This was accomplished from 6etronas>s initiative to prepare this
fuel 8n average these stations sell about -%,222 to E2,222 litres per month
9ometimes the number totals to %/2,222 litres per month <owever in terms of
economical revenues, these are not a very stimulating amount Although more taxi
drivers use natural gas, which translates to less taxi drivers who buy petrol, thus
dropping the sales, however less profit is coming from natural gas retail if compared
to the retail of conservative fuels The NG: station owners also "uestion JMother#
Daughter> system which is used in NG: retailing 6roblems arise when natural gas
arrives sometimes too late due to the long distance of the mother station Moreover,
sometimes the pumps pressures are too wea! which is caused by the compressors
They suggested direct gas system as a solution to these problems According to them,
this system will save time, $ourney costs and the gas pressure will be sufficient all the
time
At the same time there are also benefits gained from NG: retailing, such as
owners need not to worry about maintenance and infrastructures All these are ta!en
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %)$
care by 6etronas <owever, there are stations that claimed safety for daughter
stations are less strict than mother stations This was based on past occurrence from
few stations that had experienced lea!ages on no77les and problems with
compressors It is hoped that the government and 6etronas would give more exposure
and training to operators and gas station owners before opening new NG: stations
The training should stress on safety because the lac! of it will cause problems and
disrupt station operation In addition to that, the devices in use are fairly sensitive
and can easily be out of order if handled without proper training In order to wait for
experts from 6etronas#NG: for repairs will consume a lot of time
In general, the respondents +station owners of NG:, are satisfied with
government>s policy to help both the station and consumers <owever they believe
that the government should reconsider the costly NG: vehicle conversion when
drafting the policy The government should also promote more about the benefits of
NG: usage to the public The national automobile industry should also ta!e the
opportunity in $oining the government to design a car that is NG:#ready
Mana($rs +; P7#p S%a%i+n <N+n H Na%7ra4 Gas=
9ix interviews had been conducted on owners of gas stations who did not have
NG: service in their premises There was a lot of information obtained that supports
this study All of the interviewed respondents said that they were interested in selling
this fuel <owever, a few problems made them suspend their decisions Among them
are lac! of infrastructure and the delay waiting for 6etronas>s instructions This is
because the building of an NG: pump station is fully funded by the company 9ome
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %)(
of the respondents had already applied and are waiting for the construction process
Another owner was waiting for the final word from 6etronas Dagangan Berhad
+6DB, whether he could start NG: service
Another problem that prevented them from not getting involved in the NG:
distributions is the lac! of information from the government and 6etronas concerning
the profits and losses in fuel preparation 8ther problems that should be the concern
are the lac! of NG: consumers in Malaysia It seemed that almost all the NG:
consumers are exclusively They hope for more efforts from the government to
introduce more consumer#friendly policies that will increase the fuel usage in
general ;hen number of consumers reaches the pea! point, there will be no more
doubt for station owners to start serving the needs of NG:#modified cars
'conomically their profits will rise according to the increase of products they have to
offer Meanwhile, respondents propose to 6etronas to avoid disruptions in the supply
and instalments when delivering natural gas
In a nutshell, it can be summarised that the station owners are highly interested
to be involved in distributing NG:, provided that the problems discussed above can
be overcomed by the government and 6etronas in effort to increase infrastructure
readiness for NG: usage
2$0$0$ E%ono1i% Ana6.i
To conduct economic analysis the first thing that must be !nown is fuel
consumption costs, maintenance costs, engine type and fuel type +petrol or diesel,
Thus, it is important to identify the difference between fuel consumption and
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %))
maintenance re"uirement before and after converting to NG: Tables 0., 0-2 and
0-- show the information that have been gathered from various source based on the
annual fuel consumption and annual maintenance cost for commercial 6roton taxis
/
<owever this information will be changing with respect to location and time
Table 0. 'stimated annual consumption between petrol and natural gas
E
&uel Type 6etrol NG
Distance traveled per year 5E,222 !m 5E,222 !m
*ar model 6roton Iswara 6roton Iswara
'ngine capacity +liter, -0 -0
&uel consumption 22/- litersI!m 22/E litersI!m
*urrent fuel price per liter @M -5%2 @M 20E0
Table 0-2 'stimated annual consumption between diesel and natural gas
&uel Type Diesel NG
Distance traveled per year 5E,222 !m 5E,222 !m
*ar model 6roton ;ira 6roton ;ira
'ngine capacity +liter, %2 %2
&uel consumption 22/E litersI!m 22/E litersI!m
*urrent fuel price per liter @M 2E4- @M 20E0
Table 0-- 'stimated annual maintenance cost +@M, for different fuels
*omponents 6etrol Bi # fuel Diesel Dual # fuel
'ngine oil +-0; to 50;, -0% --5 -0% --5
'ngine oil filter 03 5% 03 5%
9par! plug /% .2 # #
Air filter 32 32 32 32
Battery water E E E E
Aabour charges -22 -22 -22 -22
'stimated Total *ost 55E 5-5 4/3 4%5
/
Ma$ority taxis in Malaysia using 6roton
E
Sualitative data in table obtained from various sources li!e references, interviews
and prediction
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %)*
By using e"uation +0-, the estimated annual saving per year based upon the data
presented in table 0., 0-2 and table 0-- above is as follows=
&or conversion of petrol to NG: +bi H fuel,, the estimated annual saving is=
9 X 5E,222 x +Z22/- x -5%[ H Z22/E x 20E0[, T +55E H 5-5,
9 X @M %2%4
&or conversion of diesel to NG: +dual H fuel,, the estimated annual saving is=
9 X 5E,222 x +Z22/E x 2E4-[ H Z22/E x 20E0[, T +4/3 H 4%5,
9 X @M ./4
'conomic analysis is re"uired to estimate the direct saving achieved by using
natural gas as an alternative fuel The result clearly indicated that there is a
significant annual savings and if this program is implemented at national scale for
both types of petrol or diesel engine *omparison of total running cost for different
types of vehicles is presented in Table 0-%

Table 0-% *omparison of total operation cost for public transport
with different fuel consumption
*omponents 6etrol
+@M,
Bi H fuel
+@M,
Diesel
+@M,
Dual H fuel
+@M,
&uel consumption cost per year 5,E4. %,-.2 4,--- %,-.2
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %)+
Maintenance cost per year 55E 5-5 4/3 4%5
Total cost 0,%E/ %,325 4,3-/ %,0-5
&rom Table 0-%, the annual expenditure from using natural gas as fuel is
approximately 0-1 less compared to petrol and approximately %E 1 less compared
to diesel &urther savings can be achieved if the usage of natural gas could prolong
the life span of the engine due to the clean combustion process in the engine
2$2$ Con%6(ion an) S(''etion
2$2$#$ Con%6(ion
There are two parts of this section In the first part, summary of the research
will be discussed This covers the conclusions gained from the study conducted
Meanwhile, the second part consists of suggestions for future implementations
These suggestions are presented according to results of the study to promote the
usage of NG: in this country 9ome of the suggestions and conclusions are based on
following=
9urvey of NG: usage was conducted in some parts of 6eninsular Malaysia,
such as Fohor Bahru, 6enang, (uala Aumpur and 9elangor
This survey involved selected taxi drivers, both NG: users and non#users, gas
station owners, and both taxi and public bus companies owners as respondents
This study discusses the respondent>s views about NG: Interviews with
managers of both taxi and public bus are also included
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %*#
Many conclusions can be drawn from this research, however only the most
important aspect will be ta!en into consideration and discussed in detail in this
section The conclusions are=
A survey for taxi drivers, conducted on 50% respondents, shows that the usage of
NG: was very helpful, because of the fact that NG: is relatively cheap It is
more economical than petrol or diesel and produces less environmental impact
The government>s policy to introduce NG: in Malaysia has not been very
successful so far, which was to control the price of NG: to remain 021 cheaper
than petrol 8ther policies include road tax exemptions 9uch policies will
stimulate more users and periodically more gas stations to provide to NG
The problems for the taxi drivers who use NG: are the lac! of NG: refuelling
stations The drivers have to "ueue up, sometimes over an hour in order to refill
in the certain places The distance between two gas stations that provide NG:
pumps is also "uite far, where E51 respondents who claimed that the lac! of
NG: pumps in gas stations is their main problem of using NG:
NG: users agree with government policy to control the fuel price, but they are
happy that the government will continue promoting the benefits and the safety
of NG: to a broader audience via premier mass media
A survey on taxi drivers that did not use NG: was conducted on %-3
respondents Two main problems that caused them not to change to NG: are the
fact that the price of conversion !it +4-1, which is re"uired to modify their cars
is "uite expensive and the lac! of gas stations +3-1, that provide NG: pumps is
another problem
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %*%
Air pollution has become a global problem today and Malaysia, as one of Asia>s
unwitting contributor to the environmental woe <owever using NG: will
reduce and ultimately solve this dilemma In addition, natural gas as fuel for the
transportation sector in the future will help the country>s economy by using our
very own fuel, since Malaysia ran!s twelfth for natural gas reserves
*alculations show that a huge savings can be gained by NG: users, which is
0-/01 and 523/1 for switching from diesel and petrol by taxi drivers This
fact should motivate consumers to use natural gas as fuel
2$2$* S(''etion
8nly the important suggestions that have higher possibility than others will be
discussed in depth in this section Those are=
To increase NG: usage in Malaysia, the advantages of using this fuel should be
further promoted in prime mass media *ampaigns and seminars are also
necessary to achieve this goal Additional incentives provided by the
government to NG: users will also encourage more users and suppliers &or
example, tax cuts for both users and gas station owners and other benefits This
should also be applied to oil companies who mar!et natural gas as their main
product
The cost for converting a car to NG: is approximately @M %E22 Although this
is considered reasonable, there are not many users converting to NG: because
the lac! of NG: refuelling station around the country Therefore the number of
NG: refuelling station must be increased to adapt with future demands &ailure
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %*"
to do so will a slow down or even will contribute to no growth of NG: users
&urther @KD on NG: must be conducted by providing grants for researcher to
conduct studies in new areas, such as natural gas usage for motorcycles
Both the government and the private sectors should increase their investments in
adding infrastructures, and also to conduct more awareness campaigns regarding
NG: benefits
P7-4i& Transp+r%
This part is an action plan for every category of public transports, such as taxi
drivers who use natural gas, non#users, taxi and bus companies
The government expectantly will provide more facilities or a more effective
policy in order to attract more people to use natural gas as the main fuel in the
future Infrastructure such as refuelling stations that provide NG: should be
built more especially in the urban and the surrounding areas These parts are
!nown as the focus point of public transport operations
The price to modify a conventional car to NG: should be reduced This policy
will surely do well to the public and taxi drivers who have not converted their
cars yet This can raise the total NG: users to a desired level
Government through related bodies can organise wor!shops and trainings for
technicians and mechanics so they can understand how an NG: engine wor!s
and how to repair it This will also enable them to open wor!shops for fixing
NG:
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %*&
Another important aspect is to cut the price tag of conversion !it and to have
sufficient stoc!s of the !its It can be done by attracting several national and
multinational companies to wor! together with local companies to produce this
!it Argentina did it in the .2sL they invited %2 multinational companies to
produce and assemble these components according to the country>s
specifications
9et up a target plan that predicts the number of cars to be converted and the
number of related infrastructures has to be added for the convenience of the
growing natural gas users
&or NG: cars, the obvious problem is the tan! si7e It ta!es up the boot space,
and also increases the weight of the car This surely creates problems for certain
vehicles that have a weight limit such as buses, lorries or vans These tan!s can
be installed underneath the vehicle This will also allow the tan!>s capacity to be
increased
9ubsidy is needed by bus companies, some countries offer up to 021 subsidy
for companies who want to buy NG: buses and provide loan rates up to 021
Another option to promote natural gas usage is to raise the price margin between
conventional fuel and natural gas This can be done in two ways= either to
withdraw the subsidy for diesel or to offer subsidy for the natural gas in such a
way that the difference will become apparent This is caused by the fact that
natural gas and diesel are tagged at almost the same price, and for ma$or
companies that have their own depot, diesel might be cheaper than natural gas
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %*'
'xemptions or reductions of any sort of taxes for buses might motivate bus
companies to buy NG: buses This will also cause prices of NG: buses to drop
lower than conventional buses
6ilot pro$ects are necessary for promotion of natural gas
Oi4 C+#pani$s and Gas S%a%i+n Mana($rs
As the supplier, oil companies are the final stop before natural gas becomes
available to the public Thus, it is important to convince them regarding the profits
available from natural gas distribution That is why an action plan for suppliers
should be included These are elaborated below=
The most important issue that leads the list is the need for more NG: pumps in
every gas station This issue is most prevalent especially in the urban areas
where NG: stations are inade"uate and is situated far causing difficulty for
NG: users to refill conveniently Aong "ueues seen in the NG: pumps create an
impression that natural gas is an uncommon fuel and difficult to find It is hoped
that Gas Malaysia 9dn Bhd will develop a networ! of pipes that will meet
demands and 6etronas as the nation>s oil company can provide NG: services in
each refuelling station throughout the nation
By hoo! or by croo!, the government has to force all the oil companies in
Malaysia to be involved in providing NG: in their gas stations, especially
which located close to the natural gas pipe line networ!
It is vital to focus on the refuelling station system at first 9oft loan and
incentives from the government is really important as a starting point NG:
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %*$
stations are more expensive than the conventional ones in terms of construction,
operation and maintenance because it re"uires more advanced technology ;hen
it is developed for consumer use, the cost will be more expensive because
consumers re"uire a technology that is "uic! and easy to use Initiatives from
the natural gas suppliers are needed to manage the logistic networ!ing of natural
gas &inancial assistants may be needed by 6etronas to solve this problem due to
the huge investment cost involved
NG: acceptance in the future is dependant on mar!et transformation, which is
through tax results, interests from motor and car industries and supplier>s
involvement Therefore, a taxation policy is necessary for conventional fuel so
that NG: price will be more competitive and will draw the interest of new
users
Throughout this research, the lac! of refilling infrastructure +NG: pumps, has
been recognised as the critical issue If this is not solved soon, it will become the
ma$or obstacle to attract more users in the future This will also affect the long
term policy to encourage the use of natural gas as fuel in Malaysia This classic
problem is often referred as J*hic!en and 'gg 9yndrome> and must be rectified
as soon as possible by installing more NG: pumps in gas stations by any
possible *onsumers will not use NG: if there are insufficient natural gas
stations This suggestion has been considered alongside the fact that building
natural gas pumps stations is very expensive +-0 million for daughter and 0
million for mother, Aac! of these stations will retard the growth of NG: and
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %*(
natural gas users If the problem can be solved, it will bring the desired results
because of the benefits from using this fuel
Re,eren%e
IANG:, +%225, International Association for Natural Gas :ehicles
http=IIwwwiangvorgI
6etronas NG:, +%225, 6ersonal *ommunication with 8peration and 9ervices
Department of 6ertonas NG:
Department of 'nvironment, +%22%, )rban Air Suality Management= Motor :ehicle
'mission *ontrol in Malaysia Department of 'nvironment, (uala Aumpur,
Malaysia
'nergy Information Administration, +%225, International 'nergy 8utloo! 8ffice of
Integrated Analysis and &orecasting )9 Department of 'nergy, ;ashington, D*
)9A
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %*)
C!A"TER 8
STUDY ON VE!ICLE EFFICIENCY
STANDARDS
SUMMARY
Malaysia has been experiencing a dramatic increase in the number of vehicles
used, and this is pro$ected to be higher in the future due to increasing income per
capita This study focuses on the potential implementation of fuel economy standards
for motor vehicles in Malaysia The fuel economy standard is developed based on the
fuel consumption data that is obtained from manufacturers and other related sources
;ith the increasing number of vehicles, fuel economy standards are one of the highly
effective policies for decreasing energy use in the transportation sector &uel
economy standards are also capable of reducing air pollution and contribute towards
a positive environmental impact In this study, the potential efficiency improvements
of vehicles are analy7ed by using the engineering#economic analysis Meanwhile the
possible efficiency improvement of motor vehicle in reducing the fuel consumption
of Malaysia>s transportation sector in the future are examined by predicting the
energy, economical and environmental impacts due to its implementation
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %**
8$#$ Intro)(%tion
Air pollution is one of the environmental concerns in Malaysia The ma$or
contributor to air pollution in this country is road vehicles As a result, the adoption
of fuel economy standards for vehicles is one of the options to reduce the emission
The fuel economy standard could also play an important role in helping Malaysia to
meet overall greenhouse gas and emissions reduction target and at the same time
improve the competitiveness of the vehicle in the international arena
Buying a fuel efficient vehicle enables thousands of ringgit to be saved on
fuel bills and reduces up to tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions over its life#time
*hoosing an efficient vehicle is a good start to fuel#efficient driving and riding
<owever, the driving and riding habits and the type of vehicles driven will determine
the fuel consumption of the vehicle In order to reduce fuel consumption of vehicles,
consumers should be educated to select the most fuel#efficient vehicle from the
mar!et This ob$ective could only be achieved by setting a fuel economy standard
8$#$#$ Ba%&'ro(n)
The tremendous growth of private vehicles is caused by an increase in
standards of living as well as lac! of efficient public transportation system As a
result, the Department of 'nvironment +D8', have underta!en several measures to
regulate and control emission from vehicles in Malaysia These are=
The 'nvironmental Suality +*lean Air, @egulations -./E
The 'nvironmental Suality +*ontrol of lead concentration in automobile
gasoline, @egulations -.E0
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %*+
The 'nvironmental Suality +*ontrol of emission from petrol engines,
@egulations -..3
The 'nvironmental Suality +*ontrol of emission from diesel engines,
@egulations -..3
The 'nvironmental Suality +*ontrol of 'mission from 6etrol 'ngines,
@egulations of -..3 6art II stated that petrol engine vehicles having a specified
capacity shall comply with the prescribed emission standards In addition, emission
test for a petrol engine shall be conducted in accordance with the methods as
specified in the regulation and in an approved facility
Due to the low awareness among policy ma!ers in implementing fuel
economy standards and lac! of enforcement for certification of standards, vehicle
manufacturers are ignoring fuel economy as one of the main criteria during
production If high efficiency vehicles are not re"uired, it probably does not pay to
invest in the development <owever with an appropriate policy, the manufacturers
will have time to retool and invest in designing the vehicles that are more economic
and efficient As a result, the manufacturers will develop more efficient vehicle,
which will benefit them as well as the consumers through the increase in demand and
competitiveness of the product in the international mar!et &rom the implementation
of both fuel economy standards and labels, Malaysia will be able to promote more
efficient vehicle and will begin an important mar!et transformation for efficient
vehicle in this country The fuel economy standards and labels could also contribute
towards monetary savings as well as reducing the environmental impact such as
greenhouse gasses
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %+#
8$*$ S(rve. )ata
The data necessary for this study is the total number of vehicles in the
country year by year which is presented in Table 3-+F6F, %225, &uel consumption
data for vehicle is also necessary in order to calculate the fuel economy These data is
presented in Table 3% +Australian Greenhouse 8ffice, %224, and 34 +Ber$aya Motor,
%225,
Table 3- Total number of vehicles in Malaysia
?ear
Type of transport
6ersonal transport 6ublic transport
&reight 8ther Total
Motorcycle *ar Bus Taxi <ireK Drive
-.E/ -,.%.,./E -,403,3/E -.,54. %5,E3E 4,/5- %44,-24 -23,3// 4,3/5,5E5
-.EE %,242,5-E -,5%/,%E4 %2,50% %3,-3- 4,.4/ %50,%4% --%,%%3 4,E30,/2.
-.E. %,-E%,53E -,045,-33 %-,.E5 %E,-%2 5,%4% %34,0./ -%2,3%. 5,-00,-.3
-..2 %,4EE,5// -,3/E,.E2 %5,20/ 42,//5 5,34- %EE,5/. -4%,2-3 5,05/,5-5
-..- %,0.0,/5. -,E%5,3/. %3,-5/ 44,555 0,244 4-4,0-5 -54,5/% 5,.5%,24E
-..% %,/3%,333 -,.5%,2-3 %/,E%/ 40,0.3 0,40/ 444,3/5 -0%,3.E 0,%0.,E45
-..4 %,./2,/3. %,2EE,422 %.,.%5 4E,%/E 0,/3% 40E,E2E -35,-.. 0,303,252
-..5 4,%./,5/5 %,42%,05/ 44,0%. 5%,%25 0,42E 4.4,E44 -/E,54. 3,%04,445
-..0 4,32E,5/0 %,004,0/5 43,222 53,E2/ E,-.0 552,/%4 %24,332 3,E./,545
-..3 4,.0-,.4- %,EE3,043 4E,.30 5.,5E0 .,./- 0-%,-30 %4/,34- /,3E3,3E5
-../ 5,4%E,../ 4,%/-,425 54,555 0-,%.4 -2,E%3 0/5,3%% %3.,.E4 E,002,53.
-..E 5,3.%,-E4 4,50%,E0% 50,354 05,0.2 -2,25% 0..,-5. %E3,E.E .,-5-,40/
-... 0,2E%,5/4 4,/E/,25/ 5/,3/5 00,3%3 -2,2%2 35%,./3 425,-40 .,.%.,.0-
%222 0,403,325 5,-50,.E% 5E,33% 03,-0% -2,544 330,%E5 4-0,3E/ -2,0.E,E25
%22- 0,32.,40- 5,00/,..% 5.,//- 03,0/. .,.E3 3E.,33E 4%.,-.E --,42%,050
%22% 0,E5%,3-/ 0,22-,%/4 0-,-0E 0E,233 -2,2/4 /-4,-5E 450,325 -%,2%-,.4.
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %+%
Table3% &uel consumption data +*A@,
'ngine Displacement +liter, *ity +literI-22!m,
+average,
<ighway +literI-22!m,
+average,
- /- 0E
-4 /5 0E
-5 /3 05
-0 // 03
-3 E4 0.
-/ /. 35
-E E. 3-
-. .4 3%
%2+medium, .E 3/
%2+large, -2/ /E
%%+medium, .3 30
%%+large, -25 33
%4+medium, -2E 3E
%4+large, -24 /3
%5+medium, -2/ 33
%5+large, -2- 34
%0+medium, -2- /E
%0+large, --- /2
%3 -20 3E
%/ --5 /%
%E -2E 33
42 --- /-
4% --/ /3
44 -44 E4
4E --3 /-
52 -%4 /3
5% -50 E4
54 --/ /E
55 -%0 /.
02 -52 E3
03 -03 .4
0/ -44 E-
3/0 -.3 -%2
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %+"
Table 34 Aist of motorcycle model and price
Manufacturer Model 6rice
<onda D@'AM *-224#MA 5%5/30
D@'AM *-22M4#MA 50020%
;A:' N&-225#MA 5-.524
;A:' N&-22M5#MA 504204
9u7u!i &D--2(9 5.%/2.
&D--2M9 0%3/54
@)--2 0.%-4-
@)--2) 3-302.
@G:-%2 35-/%5
&C@-02 E5-%.0
AG-22 0/-E.4
AN-%0 /3%.52
)'-%0TAM :@-%0 33//%E
?amaha @CG *ATAA?G'@ /0%E44
N8):8 AT--0 32-/34
AAG'NDA --2+(, 025534
AAG'NDA --2+', 050%02
?--2 99% 3%%E/3
?-%0 3E42E.
?-%0 G@ /-3-E%
?AMA<A 'G8 --0cc 5E/%22
9@#: 552422
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %+&
8$/$ Met-o)o6o'.
In order to evaluate the performance and improvement for the vehicles fuel
economy standard in the study, there are several methods that have been considered
and the most important approach is to include the fuel consumption effect,
engineering economy analysis and motorcycle emission +G<G, These methods have
been also used by many countries around the world
8$/$#$ F(e6 %on(14tion
Basi& Ca4&74a%i+n
As there is a rapid vehicle penetration in most Asian countries, the situation
in Malaysia is no exception @apid industriali7ation, high economic and population
growth has accelerated the use of vehicle tremendously This can be shown through
the increase in the number of road vehicle ownership In our study, to calculate the
average of each and every data that is collected, the arithmetic mean method is used
If each of the data is assigned as "
i
and the "uantity of the data is n, therefore,
arithmetic mean is as follow=
n
i
i # "
n
"
-
-
+3-,
The driving habits, the type of vehicle and the conditions which it is driven
under determines the vehicle>s fuel consumption and fuel cost The annual fuel cost
can be estimated using the following e"uation=
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %+'
AFC +@M, X
[ ]
-22
D F R
+3%,
V$hi&4$ Gr+>%h
The polynomial method can be used to predict the total number and the
growth of vehicles in the future The method is attempted to describe the relationship
between variable B as the function of available data and response " It see!s to find a
smooth curve that the best fits the data, but does not necessarily pass through all data
points Mathematically, a polynomial of order k in B is an expression in the following
form=
k
k
B & B & B & & " + + + +
%
% - 2
+34,
F7$4 &+ns7#p%i+n 7ni%s
There are % types of units that represent the fuel consumption or the fuel
economy standards Miles per gallon is the unit that is in use in the )nited 9tates of
America Most of the 'uropean countries use liter per -22 !ilometer as the unit for
fuel consumption and &'9 indication In order to convert from one unit to the other,
it is calculated with the following e"uation=
( ) ( ) (a44+n #i4$s
a
k# L
a
I
3-5 -
0-.% 5 -22
I
-22

,
_
+35,
8$/$* En'ineerin' E%ono1. Ana6.i
In order to conduct the engineering economic analysis, the data on types and
specification of vehicles are collected Besides that, the fuel consumption data from
other countries are also collected for reference In this study, the
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %+$
engineeringIeconomic approach is adopted for proposing the standards 'ngineering
economy analysis is a method used for estimating the potential vehicle fuel economy
improvement by enumerating specific technologies as well as estimating its
cumulative impact on fuel economy and its cost 9ubstituting more efficient but more
expensive technology or technological innovation is not the only way to improve fuel
economy <igher miles per gallon +mpg, could also be achieved by reducing vehicles
si7e and performance as well as by cutting bac! on accessories and luxury features
<owever these strategies sometimes re"uire trading off attributes that consumer>s
value Attributes such as acceleration, can be translated into dollar values only with a
great uncertainty Thus, if many attributes are significantly changed to increase mpg,
the proof of minimal adverse conse"uences is lost &or this reason, most studies
estimate the costs of increased fuel economy while attempting to hold all other
vehicle attributes at least approximately constant The following seven steps are the
basis for conducting an engineering economic analysis=
- 9elect vehicle classes
% 9elect baseline values
4 9elect design options for each classes
5 *alculate fuel consumption improvement for each design option
0 *ombine design options and calculate the fuel consumption improvement
3 Develop cost estimates for each design option
/ Generate cost#fuel consumption curve
8nce these steps are completed, it is possible to analy7e the economic impact
of the potential fuel consumption improvement on the consumers by carrying out a
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %+(
life cycle cost and paybac! period analysis As the standard is in place, the fuel
consumption levels are able to develop because the standard is a minimum value
target The baseline level for the fuel consumption is selected based on the average
fuel consumption in each class of the vehicle
S$4$&%i+n +; v$hi&4$ &4ass$s5
All vehicles are classified according to their classes &or this purpose, the
vehicle classification is obtained from the &ederal *hamber of Automotive Industries
:&A*T9 @eport The classes are differentiated according to the engine displacement
and are adopted in the analysis The broad classes are light, small, medium, large,
people movers, sports, prestige and luxury vehicles 8nly 5 main classes will be
considered in this study
These are=
+i, Aight +*lass I,
4 or 5 cylinder passenger cars, hatch or sedan, up to -0 liters
+ii, 9mall +*lass II,
5 cylinder passenger cars, hatch, sedan or wagon, -3#-. liters
+iii, Medium +*lass III,
5 cylinder passenger cars, hatch, sedan or wagon, over -. liters
+iv, Aarge +*lass I:,
3 or E cylinder passenger cars, hatch, sedan or wagon
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %+)
&or motorcycle, the classes are=
+i, %#stro!e
The engine displacement ranging from E2 cc to -02 cc
'xamples= 9u7u!i @G: -%2, ?amaha @C#G -40, ?amaha -%07
+ii, 5#stro!e
The engine displacement ranging from E2 cc to -02 cc
'xamples= <onda 'C#0, 9u7u!i &C#@ -02, ?amaha '#Go --0
&or lorry the classes are=
+i, *lass % and 4= Aight duty lorries
+ii, *lass 5 H 3= Medium duty lorries
+iii, *lass / and E= <eavy duty lorries
S$4$&%i+n +; -as$4in$ 7ni%5
The baseline unit is selected to provide basic design features during the
analysis &or products without any additional design option for improvement, the
baseline models are the one that has fuel consumption value e"ual to the minimum or
the average of the existing models 9electing the least efficient model as the baseline
model is recommended since this permits analysis of trial at all possible levels of
efficiency starting from the least efficient models Therefore, the least efficient model
from the mar!et of each class is selected as the baseline model for
engineeringIeconomic analysis
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %+*
S$4$&%i+n +; d$si(n +p%i+n ;+r $a&h &4ass5
Design options are changes to the design of a baseline model that improve its
fuel consumption value The potential design options are selected based on the
substitution of more efficient component to the baseline product The data for the
potential design improvement is collected from the database developed in other
countries
F7$4 &+ns7#p%i+n i#pr+v$#$n% ;+r $a&h d$si(n +p%i+n
&uel consumption improvement of each design option is determined by
calculating potential improvement from component substitutions to the baseline
models &or the entire vehicle, the fuel consumption improvement is calculated based
on the potential design options +component substitution, for improving the fuel
economy standard +&'9,
F7$4 &+ns7#p%i+n i#pr+v$#$n% +; &+#-ina%i+n d$si(n +p%i+ns5
&uel consumption calculations are performed for the various components
substitution for the baseline product in accordance to the input from manufacturers of
the baseline models &or combination design options, fuel economy standard +&'9, is
determined through cumulative improvement of each design option
C+s% $s%i#a%$s ;+r $a&h d$si(n +p%i+n
The cost estimates for each design option is the cost of producing the vehicle
with the improved design options The expected cost of manufacturing each design
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ %++
option is obtained from vehicle manufacturers <owever, when manufacturing costs
are unavailable, the expected costs is estimated based on retail price, or from the
design options that already exists in the mar!et place If the data is still unavailable
from these sources, the necessary data will be collected from published reference
materials
C+s% $;;i&i$n&" &7rv$s
The cost efficiency curve is determined by calculating life cycle cost +LCC,
for the vehicle due to the fuel consumption or fuel economy standard improvement
based on each design option, and combination design options The LCC is the sum of
investment cost and the annual operating cost discounted over the lifetime of the
appliance LCC is calculated by the following e"uation=
( )
+
N
%
%
r
OC
PC LCC
-
-
+30,
If operating expenses are constant over time, the A** is simplified to the
following e"uation=
LCC X PC I +PWF,+OC, +33,
To calculate the life cycle cost, the annual operating cost for the baseline unit
should be identified The annual operating cost +8*, of vehicle is the sum of annual
fuel cost +A, and annual maintenance cost +C,5 It can be calculated as follows=
OC C A I C +3/,
The annual fuel cost of a vehicle is given in '" +3%,, meanwhile the annual
maintenance cost is the total cost of the components being replaced and the labor
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "##
cost when the vehicle is being serviced The components are lubricant, oil filter,
spar! plug and gas!et
Meanwhile, to determine the present worth factor, it is calculated by the
following e"uation=
( ) ( )
1
]
1
+

+

N
N
%
r
r
r
PWF
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
+3E,
The paybac! period +PAY, measures the amount of time needed to recover the
additional investment +increment cost, as a result of increased fuel consumption
through lower operating cost PAY is calculated by solving the following e"uation=
2
-
+

PAY
%
OC PC
+3.,
In general, PAY is found by interpolating the results between two years when
the above expression changes sign If OC is constant, the e"uation has the solution as
given below=
OC
PC
PAY

+3-2,
The PAY is the ratio of incremental cost +from the baseline to the more
efficient vehicle, to the decrease in annual operating expenses If PAY is greater than
the lifetime of the vehicle, it means that the increment in purchase price is not
recovered by the reduced operating expenses
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "#%
8$/$/ "otentia6 ,(e6 avin'
Bas$4in$ ;7$4 &+ns7#p%i+n
The baseline fuel consumption is usually based on the test data To obtain the
baseline fuel consumption in the future, predictions are made using the annual fuel
efficiency improvement The baseline fuel consumption in a particular year can be
calculated by the following e"uation=
( )
( ) Ys& Ypd
v
i
v
Ys&
v
s
AEI BFC BFC

+ - +3--,
Ini%ia4 7ni% ;7$4 savin(s
The initial unit fuel savings is the difference between the annual unit fuel
consumption of a unit meeting the standard and the unit fuel consumption of the
average unit that would have been shipped in the absence of standard Initial unit fuel
savings can be calculated by the following e"uation=
v
s
v
s
v
s
SFC BFC FS
+3-%,
Ship#$n%
9hipment data comprise the number of registered vehicle in predicting year
minus the number of registered vehicle in the previous year The shipment for vehicle
can be expressed by the following e"uation=
v
i
v
i
v
i
Na Na Sh
-

+3-4,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "#"
T+%a4 $;;i&i$n&" i#pr+v$#$n%
Total efficiency improvement is a percentage ratio of initial unit fuel savings
and baseline fuel consumption of vehicle while the standards are enacted Thus, total
efficiency improvement can be calculated using the following e"uation=
1 -22
v
s
v
s v
s
BFC
FS
TEI
+3-5,
S&a4in( Fa&%+r
The scaling factor would linearly scale down the unit fuel savings of vehicle
and the incremental cost to 7ero over the effective lifetime of the fuel economy
standards The scaling factor can be expressed by the following e"uation=
( )
v
s
v
s v
i
v
i
v
i
TEI
AEI
Ys$ Ysh SF -
+3-0,
ni% ;7$4 savin(s
The unit fuel savings were ad$usted downward in the years after the standards
are implemented using the efficiency trend scaling factor This factor accounts for the
natural progress in efficiency that is expected in the baseline case The unit fuel
savings for vehicle can be calculated by the following e"uation=
v
s
v
i
v
i
FS SF FS
+3-3,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "#&
Ship#$n% s7rviva4 ;a&%+r
The shipment survival factor is a function of the annual retirement rate and
the retirement function The shipment survival factor for motorcycles can be
calculated using the following e"uation=
( )
( )
1
]
1

v
v v
i
v
T v
i
L
L Ysh Y%&
SSF
4 I % 4 I 5
4 I %
-
+3-/,
App4i&a-4$ s%+&k
The applicable stoc! is the shipments in a particular year plus the number of
vehicles affected by standards in previous year multiplied by shipment survival
factor The applicable stoc! can be calculated using the following e"uation=
( )
v
i
v
i
v
i
v
i
AS SSF Sh AS
-
+ +3-E,
F7$4 savin(s
To determine the unit fuel savings in a particular year, the fuel savings for
vehicle associated with the standard is multiplied by the scaling factor and the
number of vehicles purchased in that year The fuel savings can be calculated by the
following e"uation=

T
s i
v
i
v
i
v
i
v
i
SF ES AS FS
+3-.,
E&+n+#i& i#pa&% +; %h$ s%andards
The economic impact consists of potential bill savings, net savings and
cumulative present value The economic impact is actually a function of fuel savings
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "#'
and the investment for more efficient vehicle due to the fuel economy standards The
description of each variable is explained in the following section
Ini%ia4 in&r$#$n%a4 &+s%
Initial incremental cost per unit of motor vehicle is a function of unit fuel
savings and incremental cost which can be calculated using the following e"uation=
v v
s
v
s
IC ES IIC
+3%2,
Capi%a4 r$&+v$r" ;a&%+r5
*apital recovery factor is the correlation between the real discount rate and
the lifespan of the motor vehicle This correlation can be expressed by the following
mathematical e"uation =
( ) ( )
r
L
d
d
CRF

+
- -
+3%-,
Bi44 savin(s
The bill savings is the fuel savings multiplied by the average fuel price and
can be expressed as follows=
n
i
v
i
v
i
PF FS BS
+3%%,
N$% savin(s
There are two ways to estimate economic impactL annuali7ed costs and cash
flow In the first method, the incremental cost is spread over the lifetime of the
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "#$
vehicle so that the pattern of expenditures matches the flow of bill savings This
method smoothes the net saving over time The annuali7ed net @M savings in a
particular year, which is the main economic indicator used in this analysis, is
calculated using the following e"uation=
v v
i
T
s i
v
i
n
i
v
i
v
i
IIC SF CRF AS PF FS ANS

+3%4,
The second method considers the cash flow over the lifetime of the
investment assuming that the vehicle is paid for in full when it is purchased
6urchasers incur the incremental cost when the appliance is purchased, but benefits
of higher energy efficiency are spread over the lifetime of the vehicle To calculate
the net savings in a certain year in terms of actual cash flows, the following e"uation
is used=
v v
i
v
i
n
i
v
i
v
i
IIC SF Sh PF ES NS
+3%5,
C7#74a%iv$ pr$s$n% va47$
The cumulative present value can be calculated using the percentage of real
discount rate The cumulative present value of annuali7ed net savings can be
expressed in the mathematical form as follows=
( )
( )
( )
T
s i
Ydr i
v
i v
i
d
ANS
ANS PV
-
+3%0,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "#(
8$0$ Re(6t an) )i%(ion
8$0$# Intro)(%tion
This chapter contains results on fuel economy standards for motor vehicles
and their impact at national level The engineeringIeconomic approach is applied to
examine potential fuel economy improvement of the least efficient model of motor
vehicles in Malaysia &uel consumption calculation is modified based on the theory
that is in use in several countries 6redicted economic and energy impact due to the
implementation of fuel economy standards is also discussed &inally, the potential
recommendations related to fuel economy standards are presented
8$0$* F(e6 Con(14tion
In order to calculate the annual fuel cost, the petrol cost is considered at
@M-5% per liter &or a vehicle achieving E literI-22 !m and traveling -0222 !m per
year, the annual fuel cost is estimated to be=
!m -0222 @M-5%
!m -22
liter E
FC
@M-/25
Based on this simple calculation, the lifetime vehicle traveling cost can be estimated
conse"uently and the effect of even small differences in fuel consumption can be
predicted
&or example, if a vehicle achieving E literI-22 !m is compared with the one
achieving -2 literI-22 !m, the annual fuel cost will be @M-/25 and @M%-42 each
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "#)
respectively 8ver the lifetime of the vehicle which is -2 years, the estimated cost of
fuel is presented in Table 35
Table 35 &uel cost over the vehicle>s -2 years lifetime
&uel consumption &uel cost
% liter I -22 !m @M 5%32
4 liter I -22 !m @M 34.2
5 liter I -22!m @M E0%2
0 liter I -22 !m @M-2302
3 liter I -22 !m @M -%/E2
E liter I -22 !m @M -/252
-2 liter I -22!m @M %-422
-% liter I -22 !m @M%0032
8$0$/ Ve-i%6e 'ro5t-
The total vehicles are predicted based on the data collected from Fabatan
6engang!utan Falan +F6F, Malaysia and using '" +44, The results are presented in
Appendix A Meanwhile, the potential vehicle growth in Malaysia in the future is
predicted using the following e"uation=
*ar
..E3 2 @ , 23 ' - 5.540 -%E%3
% %
+ + + B B " +3%3,
Motorcycle
..0- 2 @ , 23 ' % -34-.% 3 //3-
% %
+ + + B B " +3%/,
Aorry
.E%5 2 @ , %-%522 %50%3 -4 /5/
% %
+ + B B " +3%E,
Bus
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "#*
.E00 2 @ , -//%4 5 %%.3 53-E 5
% %
+ + B B " +3%.,
8$0$0 En'ineerin'Fe%ono1i% ana6.i
'ngineeringIeconomic analysis is conducted to evaluate the fuel economy
standards for vehicles in Malaysia The first step for this analysis is the selection of
vehicles classes The baseline unit selected for analysis is the average or the least
efficient models obtained from the mar!et through data collection The design
options for baseline units in each class are selected and the potential fuel economy
improvement is determined through this analysis In order to analy7e the life cycle
cost and paybac! period the incremental cost for each design option is identified
'ach step of the procedure is discussed in the following section
S$4$&%i+n +; v$hi&4$ &4ass$s
The first step in the engineeringIeconomic analysis is the grouping of vehicles
types into separate classes The classes are selected according to the engine
displacement whereby different fuel economy standards are applicable The classes
are shown in Table 30, 33 and 3/
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "#+
Table 30 TypesI*lasses of cars
*lass Type 'ngine
Displacement
Aight +*lass I, 4 or 5 cylinder passenger cars, hatch
or sedan
above -0 liters
9mall +*lass II, 5 cylinder passenger cars, hatch, sedan
or wagon
-0#-. liters
Medium +*lass III, 5 cylinder passenger cars, hatch, sedan
or wagon
over -. liters
Aarge +*lass I:, 3 or E cylinder cars, hatch, sedan or
wagon
over -. liters
Table 33 TypesI*lasses of motorcycles
Types of motorcycles Model
% 9tro!e
# engine displacement from E2cc to
-02cc
?amaha @C#G -40, ?amaha--299%,
?amaha -%0G, 9u7u!i @G:-%2,
9u7u!i @)--2
5 9tro!e
# engine displacement from E2cc to
-02cc
9u7u!i &C@-02, 9u7u!i &D--2M9,
?amaha Aagenda --2, <onda Dream
*-22, <onda ;ave N&-22
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "%#
Table 3/ TypesI*lasses of lorry
*lass Type G:;
% and 4 Minivan, )tility van, 9tep van, *onventional
van, &ull#si7e pic!up, ;al!#in truc!, *ity
delivery truc!
322-Ib to -5222Ib
5 # 3 *onventional van, *ity delivery truc!, Aarge
wal!#in truc!, Buc!et, Beverage truc!, 9ingle#
axle truc!, @ac! truc!, 9chool bus
-522-Ib to %3222Ib
/ # E @efuse truc!, &urniture truc!, Medium
conventional truc!, Dump truc!, *ement
truc!, <eavy conventional truc!, *8' sleeper
truc!, *ity transit bus
%322-Ib and above
S$4$&%i+n +; -as$4in$ 7ni%
The design options are changes made to the design of the baseline model that
will improve fuel economy of the vehicle 9election of design options are made
based on substitution of the present components used by vehicle to a more efficient
one 9ome of the options are already adopted by existing vehicle and others are being
developed in Malaysia or in other countries such as Fapan, )nited 9tates, 'urope and
other car manufacturers The potential improvement for design options from each
class are determined based on input and suggestion from manufacturers and
references for the least efficient model The lists of potential design options proposed
in this study for the least efficient model are tabulated in table 3E, 3., 3-2, 3-- and
3-%
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "%%
Table 3E 6otential increase in fuel economy and related price increase for cars
No Technology 6otential fuel
efficiency
improvement +1,
6otential average
retail price
increase +@M,
A Engine technologies production-
intent engine technologies
A- 'ngine friction and other
mechanicalIhydrodynamic loss
reduction
-# 0 -44#04%
A% Application of advanced low
friction lubricants
- 42#5%
A4 Multi#valve, overhead camshaft
valve trains
%#0 4..#04%
A5 :ariable valve timing %#4 -44#04%
A0 :ariable valve lift and timing -#% %33#/.E
A3 *ylinder deactivation 0#/ 5%3#.0E
A/ 'ngine accessory improvement 0#-2 4-.#5%3
AE 'ngine downsi7ing and
supercharging
%#3 -442#%-%E
B Transmission technologies
production-intent transmission
technologies
B- *ontinuous variable transmission
+*:T,
5#E 04%#-442
B% &ive speed automatic
transmission
%#4 %33#0E0
* Vehicle technologies production-
intent vehicle technologies
*- Aerodynamic drag reduction on
vehicle designs
-#% 2#04%
*% Improved rolling resistance
-#-
%
-
04#%-4
*4 :ehicle weight reduction +01, 4#5 /.E#-442
Table 3. 6otential increase in fuel economy and cost for motorcycles
efficiency
6otential
average retail
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "%"
improvement
+1,
price increase
+@M,
A &uel In$ection
- Direct H in$ection +%
stro!e,
% 6ort H in$ection +5 stro!e,
42 H 40
-% # -0
-220
-220
B 6etrol saver 0 # -2 %2-
* Motorcycle weight reduction +01, 5 402
D Aerodynamic drag reduction on
motorcycle>s design
- %02
' Application of advanced low
friction lubricant
- %2
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "%&
Table 3-2 6otential increase in fuel economy and related price increase for Medium
Duty Aorry +class % K 4,
efficiency
improvement
+1,
6otential
average retail
price increase
+@M,
A
A-
B
B-
*
*-
D
D-
D%
'
'-
'%
&
&-
AERODYNAMICS
Aower coefficient of drag through
hood and cab configuration, bumper
and underside baffles
ROLLING RESISTANCE
Aow rolling resistance tires
TRANSMISSION
Advance transmission with loc!#up,
electronic controls and reduced
friction
DIESEL ENGINE
Turbocharged, direct in$ection
engine with better thermal
management
Integrated starterIalternator with
idle off and limited regenerative
bra!ing
GASOLINE ENGINE
'lectronic fuel in$ection, D8<*
and multiple valves
bra!ing
VE!ICLE MASS
Mass reduction through high
strength, lightweight material
%0
%0
%2
02
02
02
02
02
%%E2
3E5
%/02
%332
5032
%332
4E22
5322
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "%'
Table 3-- 6otential increase in fuel economy and related price increase for Medium
Duty Aorry +class 5#3,
efficiency
improvement
+1,
6otential
average retail
price increase
+@M,
A
A-
A%
A4
B
B-
*
*-
D
D-
D%
'
'-
'%
AERODYNAMICS
*ab top deflector, sloping hood,
cab side flares
*losingIcovering of gap between
tractor and trailer, aerodynamic
bumper, underside air baffles,
wheel well covers
:an leading and trailing edge
curvatures
ROLLING RESISTANCE
TRANSMISSION
Advance transmission with loc!#
up, electronic controls and reduced
friction
DIESEL ENGINE
Turbocharged, direct in$ection
management
bra!ing
GASOLINE ENGINE
'lectronic fuel in$ection, D8<*
and multiple valves
bra!ing
%0
52
-2
%0
%2
E2
02
02
E2
%E02
4252
-0%2
-235
45%2
4E22
5032
4E22
5032
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "%$
Table 3-% 6otential increase in fuel economy and related price increase for <eavy
Duty Aorry +class / K E,
efficiency
improvement +1,
6otential average
retail price
increase +@M,
A
A-
A%
A4
B
B-
*
*-
D
D-
'
'-
'%
&
&-
AERODYNAMICS
*ab top deflector, sloping hood,
cab side flares
*losingIcovering of gap between
bumper, underside air baffles,
wheel well covers
Trailer leading and trailing edge
curvatures
ROLLING RESISTANCE
TRANSMISSION
Advance transmission with loc!#
up, electronic controls and
reduced friction
AUXILIARIES
'lectrical auxiliaries +air
compressor, hydraulic pump,
radiator fan,
DIESEL ENGINE
Internal friction reduction
through better lubricants and
improved bearings
Increased pea! cylinder pressure
VE!ICLE MASS ATAREB
Mass reduction through high#
%2
%0
-4
42
%2
-0
%2
52
-22
%E02
0/22
-.22
%2.2
/322
-.22
-.22
4E22
/322
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "%(
F7$4 &+ns7#p%i+n i#pr+v$#$n% ;+r $a&h d$si(n +p%i+n
&uel consumption improvement is calculated based on the selection of design
options for each class This analysis ta!es into account the potential fuel
consumption improvement for each design options independently The incremental
cost estimates for using these options were obtained from manufacturers and other
references The incremental costs are the investment cost to produce vehicle with the
new design option The results of design options improvement for baseline design
+no design change, for class I, II, III and I: motor vehicles are presented in Table
3-4, 3-5, 3-0 and 3-3 &or the % stro!e and 5 stro!e motorcycles, the results are
presented in Table 3%0, 3%3 and 3%/ Table 34-, 34%, 344 and 345 shows the
results of the design option improvements for lorries and busses
F7$4 &+ns7#p%i+n i#pr+v$#$n% ;+r &+#-ina%i+n d$si(n +p%i+ns
The fuel consumption improvement for combined design options are started
from the baseline design The design changes are then accumulated together with
fuel economy standard improvements The incremental cost for design options are
calculated cumulatively and based on priority of the highest fuel economy standard
improvement and the lowest incremental cost The calculation results of are tabulated
in Table 3-/ # Table 3%0 &or the % stro!e and 5 stro!e motorcycles, the results are
presented in Table 3%E, 3%. and 342 Meanwhile, Table 340, 343 and 34E shows
the results for the improvement of combination design option for lorries and busses
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "%)
Baseline # 3. +city, K 05 +highway,
Aeast efficient # /3 +city, K 0E +highway,
Table 3-4 &'9 and incremental cost of design options for class I car
Design
8ptions
Technological
Improvements
&'9
*ity <ighway
&'9
#+ 1 ,
*ost
+ @M ,
16rice
+ 1 ,
2 Aeast efficient design /32 0E2 2 2 2
A% Application of
advanced low friction
lubricant
/0% 0/5 - 5% 2-2
A4 Multi#valve, overhead
camshaft valve trains
/%% 00- 0 04% -%5
B% &ive speed automatic
transmission
/4/ 034 4 0E0 -43
*% Improved rolling
resistance
/5. 0/- -0 %-4 202
Baseline # E5+city, K 325 +highway,
Aeast efficient # .4 +city, K 35 +highway,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "%*
Table 3-5 &'9 and incremental cost of design options for class II
Design
8ptions
Technological
Improvements
&'9
*ity <ighway
&'9
#+ 1 ,
*ost
+ @M ,
1 6rice
+ 1 ,
2 Aeast efficient design .42 352 2 2 2
losses reduction
.%- 345 - -44 2-.
A% Application of advanced
low friction lubricant
.%- 345 - 5% 223
A5 :ariable valve timing .2% 3%- 4 04% 2/3
A/ 'ngine accessory
improvement
EE5 32E 0 4-. 253
*% Improved rolling
resistance
.-3 342 - 04 22E
Baseline # -25 +city, K /2 +highway,
Aeast efficient # --- +city, K /E +highway,
Table 3-0 &'9 and incremental cost of design options for class III
Design
8ptions
Technological
Improvements
&'9
*ity
<ighway
&'9
#+ 1 ,
*ost
+ @M ,
1 6rice
+ 1 ,
2 Aeast efficient design --- /E 2 2 2
A% Applications of advanced,
low friction lubricants
--2 //% - 5% 225
A/ 'ngine accessory
improvement
-200 /5- 0 4-. 245
B- *ontinuously variable
transmission +*:T,
-233 /5. 5 04% 203
*% Improved rolling
resistance
--2 //% - 04 223
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "%+
Baseline # --0 +city, K /4 +highway,
Aeast efficient # -44 +city, K E4 +highway,
Table 3-3 &'9 and incremental cost of design options for class I:
Design
8ptions
Technological
Improvements
&'9
*ity <ighway
&'9
#+ 1 ,
*ost
+ @M ,
6rice
+ 1 ,
2 Aeast efficient design -44 E4 2 2 2
mechanicalI
hydrodynamic losses
-%35 /E. 0 04% 25E
A% Application of advanced
-4-/ E%% - 5% 225
A5 :ariable valve timing -%.2 E20 4 04% 25E
A/ 'ngine accessory
improvement
-%35 /E. 0 4-. 2%.
*% Improved rolling
resistance
-4-/ E%% - 04 220
Table 3-/ &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class I +*IT?,
No Design options &'9
Imp
*um &'9
imp +1,
6rice
+@M,
*um
6rice imp+1,
2 Aeast efficient design /32 2 54222 222
- 2TApplication of advanced low
friction lubricant
/0% -2 5425% 2-2
% -TMulti#valve,overhead camshaft
valve trains
/-0 0. 5404% -44
4 %TImproved rolling resistance /25 /5 54%-4 -E4
5 4T&ive speed automatic transmission 3E4 -2- 540E0 4-.
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ""#
Table 3-E &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class I
+<IG<;A?,
Imp
*um &'9
imp +1,
6rice
+@M,
*um 6rice
imp+1,
2 Aeast efficient design 0E2 2 54222 222
friction lubricant
0/5 -2 5425% 2-2
% -TMulti#valve, overhead camshaft
valve trains
050 0. 5404% -44
4 %TImproved rolling resistance 04/ /5 54%-4 -E4
5 4T&ive speed automatic transmission 0%- -2- 540E0 4-.
Table 3-. &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class II +*IT?,
No Design options &'9 Imp *um &'9
imp +1,
6rice +@M, *um 6rice
imp+1,
2 Aeast efficient design .42 22 /2222 222
- 2TApplications of advanced , low
friction lubricants
.%- -2 /225% 223
% -TImproved rolling resistance .-- %2 /22.0 2-5
4 %T'ngine accessory improvement E33 3. /25-5 20.
5 4T'ngine friction and other loss
reduction
E0/ /E /205/ 2/E
0 5T:ariable valve timing E4% -23 /-2/. -05
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ""%
Table 3%2 &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class II
+<IG<;A?,
imp +1,
6rice
+@M,
*um
6rice imp
+1,
2 Aeast efficient design 342 22 /2222 222
friction lubricant
3%5 -2 /225% 223
% -TImproved rolling resistance 3-/ %2 /22.0 2-5
4 %T'ngine accessory improvement 0E/ 3. /25-5 20.
5 4T'ngine friction and other losses
reduction
0E- /E /205/ 2/E
0 5T:ariable valve timing 034 -23 /-2/. -05
Table 3%- &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class III +*IT?,
imp +1,
6rice
+@M,
*um
6rice imp
+1,
2 Aeast efficient design ---2 22 .0222 222
friction lubricant
-2.. -2 .025% 225
% -TImproved rolling resistance -2EE %2 .02.0 2-2
4 %T'ngine accessory improvement -245 3. .05-5 255
5 4T*ontinuous variable transmission
+*:T,
..% -23 .0.53 -22
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ """
Table 3%% &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class III
+<IG<;A?,
No Design options &'9 Imp *um
&'9 imp
+1,
6rice
+@M,
*um
6rice imp
+1,
2 Aeast efficient design /E2 22 .0222 222
- 2TApplication of advanced low friction
lubricant
//% -2 .025% 225
% -TImproved rolling resistance /35 %2 .02.0 2-2
4 %T'ngine accessory improvement /%3 3. .05-5 255
5 4T*ontinuous variable transmission
+*:T,
3./ -23 .0.53 -22
Table 3%4 &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class I: +*IT?,
Imp
*um &'9
imp +1,
6rice
+@M,
*um 6rice
imp+1,
2 Aeast efficient design -442 22 --2222 222
friction lubricant -4-/
-2
--225%
225
% -TImproved rolling resistance -425 %2 --22.0 22.
4 %T'ngine accessory improvement -%4E 3. --25-5 24E
reduction
--/3 --0 --2.53 2E3
0 5T:ariable valve timing --5- -5% ---5/E -45
Table 3%5 &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for class I:
+<IG<;A?,
imp +1,
6rice +@M, *um 6rice
imp+1,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ""&
2 Aeast efficient design E42 22 --2222 222
friction lubricant
E%% -2
--225%
225
% -TImproved rolling resistance E-4 %2 --22.0 22.
4 %T'ngine accessory improvement //4 3. --25-5 24E
reduction
/45 --0 --2.53 2E3
0 5T:ariable valve timing /-% -5% ---5/E -45
% 9T@8(' M8T8@*?*A'
Baseline X %. literI-22!m
Aeast efficient X 430 literI-22!m
Table 3%0 &'9 and incremental cost of design option for % stro!e motorcycle
+M'T<8D I,
Design
8ptions
Technological Improvements &'9
+literI-22!
m,
&'9
H+1,
*ost
+@M,
1 6rice
+@M,
2 Aeast efficient design 430 2 2 2
A- &uel In$ection
Direct #in$ection +% stro!e,
%03 42 -220 -3
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ""'
Table 3%3 &'9 and incremental cost of design options for % stro!e motorcycle
+M'T<8D II,
Design
8ptions
Technological
Improvements
&'9
+literI-22!
m,
&'9
H+1,
*ost
+@M,
1 6rice
+@M,
' Application of advanced
43- - %2 24
B 6etrol saver 4%. -2 %2- 4
* Motorcycle weight
reduction +01,
40 5 402 04
D Aerodynamic drag reduction
on design
43- - %02 4E
5 9T@8(' M8T8@*?*A'
Baseline X %42 literI-22!m
Aeast efficient X %.% literI-22!m
Table 3%/ &'9 and incremental cost of design options for 5 stro!e motorcycle
Design
8ptions
Technological
Improvements
&'9
+literI-22!m,
&'9
H+1,
*ost
+@M,
1 6rice
+@M,
2 Aeast efficient design %.% 2 2 2
' Application of advanced
%E. - %2 25
B 6etrol saver %34 -2 %2- 4.
A% &uel in$ection
6ort Hin$ection
%0/ -% -220 -.0
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ""$
% 9T@8(' M8T8@*?*A'
Table 3%E &'9 and incremental cost of combined design option for % stro!e
motorcycle +M'T<8D I,
Imp
*um &'9
imp +1,
6rice
+@M,
*um
6rice imp+1,
- 2T&uel In$ection
Direct #in$ection +% stro!e,
%03 42 )(&+,#( -02
Table 3%. &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for % stro!e
motorcycle +M'T<8D II,
Imp
*um &'9
imp +1,
6rice
+@M,
*um
6rice imp+1,
- 2T Application of advanced low
friction lubricant
43- - 330523 24
% -T 6etrol saver 4%0 -- 3E0023 42
4 %T Motorcycle weight reduction
+01,
4-% -5 /%2023 .2
5 Aerodynamic drag reduction on
design
42. -0 /50023 -%2
Table 342 &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for 5 stro!e
motorcycle
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ""(
imp +1,
6rice +@M, *um
6rice imp
+1,
2 Aeast efficient design %.% 2 0-34/% 222
- 2T Application of advanced
%E. -
0-E4/%
25
% -T 6etrol saver %34 -- 04E5/% 5
4 %T &uel in$ection
6ort Hin$ection
%%. %% 34E./% %5
A8@@I'9
Medium Duty lorry +class % and 4,
Aeast efficient design X %20. literI-22!m
Baseline X -350 literI-22!m
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "")
Table 34- &'9 and incremental cost of combined design for Medium Duty lorry
+class % and 4,
Design
8ptions
Technological
Improvements
&'9
+literI-22!
m,
&'9
H+1,
*ost
+@M,
1 6rice
+@M,
2 Aeast efficient design %20. 2 2 2
B- Aow rolling resistance tires %22E %0 3E5 204
D- Turbocharged, direct
in$ection engine with better
thermal management
-.03 02 %332 %20
A- Aower coefficient of drag
through hood and cab
configuration
%22E %0 %%E2 -/0
D% Integrated starterIalternator
with idle off and limited
regenerative bra!ing
-.03 02 5032 40-
&- Mass reduction through
high strength, lightweight
material
-.03 02 5322 405
*- Advance transmission with
loc!#up, electronic controls
%2-E %2 %/02 %-%
Medium Duty lorry +class 5#3,
Aeast efficient design X %E literI-22!m
Baseline X %% literI-22!m
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ""*
Table 34% &'9 and incremental cost of combined design for Medium Duty lorry
+class 5 # 3,
Design
8ptions
Technological
Improvements
&'9
+literI-22!
m,
&'9
H+1,
*ost
+@M,
1 6rice
+@M,
2 Aeast efficient design %E22 2 2 2
B- Aow rolling resistance tires %/4 %0 -235 24E
D- Turbocharged, direct
in$ection engine with better
thermal management
%0/3 E2 4E22 -43
A% *losingIcovering of gap
between tractor and trailer
%3EE 52 4252 -2.
D% Integrated starterIalternator
with idle off and limited
%332 02 5032 -34
A- *ab top deflector, sloping
hood, cab side flares
%/42 %0 %E02 -2%
A4 :an leading and trailing
edge curvatures
%//% -2 -0%2 205
*- Advance transmission with
loc!#up, electronic controls
and reduced friction
%/55 %2 45%2 -%%
<eavy Duty lorry +class / K E,
Aeast efficient design X 5%5% literI-22!m
Baseline X 4%E0 literI-22!m
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ""+
Table 344 &'9 and incremental cost of combined design for <eavy Duty lorry +class
/ K E,
Design
8ptions
Technological
Improvements
&'9
+literI-22!
m,
&'9
H+1,
*ost
+@M,
1 6rice
+@M,
2 Aeast efficient design 5%5% 2 2 2
B- Aow rolling resistance tires 5--0 42 %2.2 25%
high#strength, lightweight
material
4E-E -22 /322 -05
'- Internal friction reduction
through better lubricant and
improved bearings
5-0/ %2 -.22 24.
'% Increased pea! cylinder
pressure
52/% 52 4E22 2//
D- 'lectrical auxiliaries 5-/E -0 -.22 24.
5-0/ %2 %E02 20E
between tractor and trailer,
aerodynamic bumper
5-43 %0 0/22 --3
Bus
Aeast efficient design X 520E literI-22!m
Baseline X 4%22 literI-22!m
Table 345 &'9 and incremental cost of combined design for busses
Design Technological &'9 &'9 *ost 1 6rice
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "&#
8ptions Improvements +literI-22!m, H+1, +@M, +@M,
2 Aeast efficient design 520E 2 2 2
B- Aow rolling resistance tires 4.43 42 %2.2 254
material
430% -22 /322 -0E
'- Internal friction reduction
improved bearings
4.// %2 -.22 252
'% Increased pea! cylinder
pressure
4E.3 52 4E22 2/.
D- 'lectrical auxiliaries 4../ -0 -.22 252
4.// %2 %E02 20.
aerodynamic bumper
4.0/ %0 0/22 --.
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "&%
Table 340 &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for
Medium Duty lorry +class % and 4,
Imp
*um &'9
imp +1,
6rice
+@M,
*um
6rice imp+1,
2 Aeast efficient design %20. 2 -42222 222
- 2T Aow rolling resistance tires %22E %0 -423E5 202
% -T Turbocharged, direct in$ection
management
-.2/ /5 -44455 %32
4 %T Aower coefficient of drag through
hood and cab configuration
-E0. ./ -403%5 542
5 4T Integrated starterIalternator with
bra!ing
-/33 -5% -52-E5 /E2
0 5T Mass reduction through high
-3/E -E0 -55/E5 --52
3 0T Advance transmission with loc!#
up, electronic control
-350 %2- -5/045 -402
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "&"
Table 343 &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for
Medium Duty lorry +class 5#3,
Imp
*um &'9
imp +1,
6rice
+@M,
*um
6rice imp+1,
2 Aeast efficient design %E22 2 %E2222 222
- 2T Aow rolling resistance tires %/42 %0 %E-235 252
% -T Turbocharged, direct in$ection
management
%0-% -24 %E5E35 -/2
4 %T *losingIcovering of gap between
tractor and trailer
%5-- -4. %E/.25 %E2
5 4T Integrated starterIalternator with
bra!ing
%%.- -E% %.%535 502
0 5T *ab top deflector, sloping hood,
cab side flares
%%44 %2% %.04-5 002
3 0T :an leading and trailing edge
curvatures
%%-- %-2 %.3E45 322
/ 3T Advance transmission with loc!#
up, electronic controls and reduced
friction
%-3/ %%3 422%05 /%2
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "&&
Table 34/ &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for
<eavy Duty lorry +class / and E,
Imp
*um &'9
imp +1,
6rice
+@M,
*um
6rice imp+1,
2 Aeast efficient design 5%5% 2 5.%222 222
- 2T Aow rolling resistance tires 5--0 42 5.52.2 252
% -T Mass reduction through high#
4/24 -%/ 02-3.2 %22
4 %T Internal friction reduction
improved bearings
43%. -55 0240.2 %52
5 4T Increased pea! cylinder pressure 45E5 -/. 02/4.2 4-2
0 5T 'lectrical auxiliaries 454% -.- 02.%.2 402
cab side flares
4434 %2/ 0-%-52 5-2
/ 3T *losingIcovering of gap between
bumper
4%/. %%/ 0-/E52 042
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "&'
Table 34E &'9 and incremental cost of combined design options for Bus
Imp
*um &'9
imp +1,
6rice
+@M,
*um
6rice imp+1,
2 Aeast efficient design 520E 2 5E2/22 222
- 2T Aow rolling resistance tires 4.43 42 5E%/.2 252
% -T Mass reduction through high#
4054 -%/ 5.24.2 %22
improved bearings
45/% -55 5.%%.2 %52
5 4T Increased pea! cylinder pressure 4444 -/. 5.32.2 4%2
0 5T 'lectrical auxiliaries 4%E4 -.- 5./..2 432
cab side flares
4%-/ %2/ 022E52 5%2
/ 3T *losingIcovering of gap between
bumper
4-4/ %%/ 023052 052
Li;$E&"&4$ &+s% and pa"-a&k p$ri+d &a4&74a%i+n
The life cycle cost and paybac! period are calculated using e"uations 30 to
3-- and input data discussed in the previous section At the same time, some input
values such as discount rate, fuel price, vehicle lifespan, average mileage, baseline
data and least efficient model for each class are re"uired The input data are tabulated
in Table 34. and Table 352 for motor vehicles Table 35- displays input data for the
motorcycle and Table 35% for lorries and busses
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "&$
Table 34. The input value of baseline models for each class of car
+*ity Driving,
:ariable *lass I *lass II *lass III *lass I:
'ngine Displacement +liters, -2#-5 -0#-. %2#%0 %2#3/0
Baseline &'9 +litresI-22!m, 3. E5 -25 --0
Aeast efficient &'9 +litresI-22!m, /3 .4 --- -44
&uel price +@MIliter, -5% -5% -5% -5%
Discount rate +1, / / / /
:ehicle lifespan +years, -2 -2 -2 -2
Average mileage use +!mIyear, -0222 -0222 -0222 -0222
Table 352 The input value of baseline models for each class of car
+<ighway Driving,
:ariable *lass I *lass II *lass III *lass I:
'ngine Displacement +liters, -2#-5 -0#-. %2#%0 %3#3/0
Baseline &'9 +litresI-22!m, 05 325 /2 /4
Aeast efficient &'9 +litresI-22!m, 0E 35 /E E4
Average mileage use +!mIyear, -0222 -0222 -0222 -0222
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "&(
Table 35- The input value of baseline models for each class of motorcycles
:ariable % 9tro!es
+Method I,
% 9tro!es
+Method %,
5 9tro!es
'ngine Displacement +cc, E2#-02 E2#-02 E2#-02
Baseline &'9 +litresI-22!m, %.2 %.2 %42
Aeast efficient &'9 +litresI-22!m, 430 430 %.%
&uel price +@MIliter, -5% -4/ -4/
Discount rate +1, / / /
:ehicle lifespan +years, -2 -2 -2
Average mileage use +!mIyear, -0222 -0222 -0222
Table 35% The input value of baseline models for each class of lorries and busses
:ariable *lass % K 4 *lass 5#3 *lass / K E Bus
G:; 322-Ib to
-5222Ib
-522-Ib to
%3222Ib
%322- and
over
%322- and
over
Baseline &'9
+litresI-22!m,
-350 %%22 4%E0 4%22
Aeast efficient &'9
+litresI-22!m,
%20. %E22 5%5% 520E
Average mileage use
+!mIyear,
%2222 %2222 %2222 %0222
The cumulative impact due to design changes on all type of vehicles for &'9
and prices are presented in &igures 3-, 34, 30, 3/, 5., 3--, 3-4, 3-0, 3-/, 3-.,
3%-, 3%4, 3%0, 3%/ and 3%. Meanwhile, the cumulative paybac! period and life
cycle cost due to motor vehicle usage are shown in Table 355 # 30E It is also shown
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "&)
in &igures 3%, 35, 33, 3E, 3-2, 3-%, 3-5, 3-3, 3-E, 3%2, 3%%, 3%5, 3%3, 3%E
and 342
Table 354 Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for *lass I car +*IT?,
No Design options &'9 Imp 6rice
+@M,
8*
+@M,
A**
+@M,
6A?
+?ear,
2 Aeast efficient design /32 54222 -,E20 00,3/3 222
- 2TApplication of advanced
/0% 5425% -,/E. 00,325 %0.
% -TMulti#valve,overhead
/-0 5404% -,/2E 00,0/5 0.3
4 %TImproved rolling
resistance
/25 54%-4 -,3E3 00,3%3 332
5 4T&ive speed automatic
transmission
3E4 540E0 -,35- 00,E.0 E43
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&igure 3- Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for *lass I +*ity,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "&*
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&igure 3% 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for *lass I +*ity,
Table 355 Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for *lass I car +<ighway,
+@M,
8*
+@M,
A**
+@M,
6A?
+?ear,
2 Aeast efficient design 0E2 54222 -5%- 0%.E4 222
- 2TApplication of
lubricant
0/5 5425% -52. 0%.4. 452
% -TMulti#valve, overhead
050 5404% -45E 0425- /E-
4 %TImproved rolling
resistance
04/ 54%-4 -442 04-4% E30
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0%- 540E0 -%.3 045/0 -2.0
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&igure 34 Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for *lass I +<ighway,
$"!+*&
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&igure 35 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for *lass I +<ighway,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "'#
Table 350 Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for *lass II car +*ity,
+@M,
8*
+@M,
A**
+@M,
6A?
+?ear,
2 Aeast efficient design .42 /2222 %-3/ E0%-. 222
- 2TApplication of
lubricant
.%- /225% %-5/ E0-%% %-%
% -TImproved rolling
resistance
.-- /22.0 %-%/ E024E %5-
4 %T'ngine accessory
improvement
E33 /25-5 %242 E53/0 424
5 4T'ngine friction and
other losses reduction
E0/ /205/ %2-% E53/- 404
0 5T:ariable valve timing E4% /-2/. -.0/ E5E%0 0-0
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&igure 30 Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for *lass II +*ity,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "'%
&igure 33 6aybac! period and life cycle cost for *lass II +*ity,
Table 353 Aife#cycle cost and paybac! period calculation for *lass II car +<ighway,
+@M,
8*
+@M,
A**
+@M,
6A?
+?ear,
2 Aeast efficient design 352 /2222 -05. E2EE- 222
- 2TApplication of
lubricant
345 /225% -043 E2E%/ 42E
resistance
3%/ /22.0 -0%% E2/E0 402
improvement
0.3 /25-5 -500 E2340 55-
other loss reduction
0.2 /205/ -554 E23/5 0-4
0 5T:ariable valve timing 0/% /-2/. -520 E2.53 /5E
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&igure 3-4 Impact of design option changes on prices and &'9 for *lass I: +*ity,
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ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "(%
8$0$2 "otentia6 F(e6 Savin'
Ai!e any other developing countries, it is difficult to get a complete data in
this country because lac! of planning The calculation for potential saving is
conducted only for class I car, % stro!e and 5 stro!e motorcycles with engine
displacement range between E2cc#-02cc, medium duty lorry +class % K 4, and for
busses It is because these types of vehicles are the most popular in Malaysia and is
assumed as an average case study The calculation results from implementing
potential fuel savings for motor vehicles and motorcycles in Malaysia are tabulated
in Tables 30., 33-, 334 and 330 To derive the results, some of input data are
necessary The input data are shown in Tables 30E, 332, 33% and 335
Table 30E Input data for potential fuel saving of cars
Description :alues
?ear standard enacted %223
Discount rate /1
Incremental cost @M-4/%
Aife span -2 year
Baseline &uel *onsumption -240 literIyear
*urrent average fuel price @M -5% per liter
9tandards fuel consumption /E2 literIyear
Annual efficiency improvement 41

Table 30. The calculation of fuel savings for cars
?ear 9hipment Applicable
stoc!
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savings
&uel savings
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Table 332 Input data for potential fuel saving of motorcycles
Description :alues
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Baseline &uel *onsumption 52E literIyear
9tandards fuel consumption 442 literIyear

ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "('
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&igure 344 6ro$ected fuel savings for motorcycles
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motorcycles
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Description :alues
Discount rate /1
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Aife span -0 year
Baseline &uel *onsumption 4%.2 literIyear
9tandards energy consumption %322 literIyear
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&igure 340 6ro$ected fuel savings for medium duty lorry +class % K 4,
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&igure 343 &uel consumption with and without standards +9TD vs BA), for
medium duty lorry +class % K 4,
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "()
Table 335 Input data for potential fuel saving of busses
Description :alues
Discount rate /1
Incremental cost @M%0E52
Aife span -0 year
Baseline &uel *onsumption E/02 literIyear
9tandards energy consumption /022 literIyear
Table 330 The calculation of fuel savings for busses
stoc!
9caling
factor
)nit fuel
savings
&uel
savings
+liter,
%223 5-5%3 5-5%3 -222 -2%/%2 5%004%E/
%22/ 50.-5 E/45- 2//. E223- 3..%3-02
%22E 5E-%% -40534 200. 0/52% ///0.2E%
%22. 02-3% -E03%0 244E 45/55 355.%E53
%2-2 0--0. %43/E0 2--E -%2E0 %E3-5/4-
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "(*
&igure 34/ 6ro$ected fuel savings for busses
&igure 34E &uel consumption with and without standards +9TD vs BA), for busses
It has been noted that the fuel economy standards for vehicles are only
effective for a certain period because annual efficiency of the vehicles are still
improving 41 per year even without the standard &igure 34-, 344, 340, 34/
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$
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"(+
shows that the annual savings for the fuel consumption increase sharply in the
beginning of the analysis period 8ver time, the pro$ected technological
improvement in the baseline begins to catch up with the standard @eferring to Table
30., 33-, 334 and 330, the standard for cars is only effective for about 3 years
from %223 to %2--, for motorcycles it is effective for 5 years from %223 to %22.
Meanwhile for lorry, the standard is effective for about 3 years from %223 to %22.
and for busses it is effective for 0 years from %223 to %2-2 Table 30., 33-, 334
and 330 also shows that minimum fuel economy standards or fuel consumption
program starting in %223 will save approximately 40. GA +Giga#Aiter, of fuel at the
end of %2-- for cars, -50 GA of fuel at the end of %22. for motorcycles, -%3 GA of
fuel at the end of %2-- for medium duty lorry +class % K 4, and %E3 GA of fuel at the
end of %2-2 for busses
8$0$8 E%ono1i% i14a%t o, t-e tan)ar)
The calculation result from cost#benefit analysis is tabulated in Table 333 to
33. This study has proved that the introduction of fuel economy standard for motor
vehicle offer great benefits in some aspect for consumers, governments as well as the
environment, which is not considered in this study
Table 333 The calculation result from the cost#benefit analysis for cars
?ear Bill savings
+Mil @M,
Annuali7ed net
savings
+Mil @M,
Net savings
+Mil @M,
6resent value of
AN9
+Mil @M,
%223 .4E/ #-%E-.3 #.2325E #./E22
%22/ -3%E0 #%%%4./ #E%./0% #-0E033
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%22E -./%% #%3.4%E #3/./%% #-/.535
%22. -.0// #%3/45E #0%E530 #-335.-
%2-2 -04%. #%2.445 #4553-5 #-%-E45
%2-- 35-4 #E/0E% #-%04%% #5/34.
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ")%
Table 33/ The calculation result from the cost#benefit analysis for motorcycle
?ear Bill savings
+Mil @M,
Annuali7ed net
savings
+Mil @M,
Net savings
+Mil @M,
6resent value of
AN9
+Mil @M,
%223 443 #45%5. #%5%0E5 #%3-%.
%22/ 02- #02.-4 #-E//3- #43422
%22E 530 #5/42% #-%24-3 #4-0-.
%22. %23 #%2E.5 #5-%4. #-42--
Table 33E The calculation result from the cost#benefit analysis for medium duty
lorry
?ear Bill savings
+Mil @M,
Annuali7ed net
savings
+Mil @M,
Net savings
+Mil @M,
6resent value of
AN9
+Mil @M,
%223 4./- #04/..% #5.24%22 #5-254-
%22/ 3E-. #.%4.20 #55403%2 #30E/4-
%22E E-%3 #--22E32 #4004EE2 #/4405.
%22. /E53 #-23%.32 #%33-222 #33-.3-
%2-2 0/34 #/E2/./ #-0/4E/2 #50554-
%2-- -/E5 #%5-/%4 #5-2035 #-4-5E%
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ")"
Table 33. The calculation result from the cost#benefit analysis for busses
?ear Bill savings
+Mil @M,
Annuali7ed net
savings
+Mil @M,
Net savings
+Mil @M,
6resent value of
AN9
+Mil @M,
%223 325 #-%233/ #-2..0%2 #.%203
%22/ ..4 #-.E%EE #.5./3. #-5-4/3
%22E --25 #%%25.. #/-43// #-53.%E
%22. .-3 #-E%EE- #502%0% #--4EE.
%2-2 523 #E--5% #-0./-5 #5/%%0
8$2$ Con%6(ion an) re%o11en)ation
8$2$# Con%6(ion
Due to the increasing number of vehicles in Malaysia, the fuel consumption
will grow rapidly in the future if there is no government intervention In order to
reduce the growth, fuel economy standards should be implemented in Malaysia
Apart from reducing fuel consumption, the program also indirectly reduces
emissions The present study has demonstrated that implementation of fuel economy
standards for motor vehicle will lead to the following conclusions=
The result of the study has proven that the consumer, manufacturers,
government and the environment will receive tremendous benefit from
implementing the fuel economy standards It is possible to save fuel
approximately --00 liter for cars, E5 liter for % stro!e motorcycle, .50 liter for
5 stro!e motorcycle, E%E liter for medium duty lorry +class % K 4, and %42%0
liter for busses Although now the consumers have to pay a higher price for
purchasing vehicle, they will save from the lower annual fuel costL which is
@M-352- for cars, @M--.%E for % stro!e motorcycle, @M-45-. for 5 stro!e
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ")&
motorcycle, @M--/0/3 for medium duty lorry +class % K 4, and @M4%3.00
for busses
By calculating the impact of the fuel economy standards, approximately .-3 GA
of fuel could be saved at the end of %2--
In brief, this study presents the importance to propose the fuel economy
standards in Malaysia and shows that the fuel consumption improvement is an
effective method to reduce fuel energy consumption growth in the transportation
sector
8$2$* Re%o11en)ation
The study proposes several recommendations to gain an optimum impact
from possible fuel economy standards implementation for vehicles in Malaysia The
recommendations are=
The government needs to establish a framewor! to continually collect data from
the dealers who sell their vehicles in the Malaysian mar!et &rom these data,
fuel economy label should be developed that meets the fuel economy standards
in order to enable the consumers to select and purchase the best fuel efficient
vehicle
Implementation of the fuel economy standard is the responsibility of the
government <owever cooperation between relevant institutions such as 9I@IM,
6TM and also the manufacturers should be reinforced to increase the synergy in
order to produce a successful test procedure, fuel economy standards and label
program
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ")'
An independent laboratory for testing purposes owned by the Malaysian
government or an independent body should be developed as one of the main step
to implement the fuel economy standards This includes the facility to predict
traffic behavior, vehicle maintenance and the type of road
Malaysian government should conduct awareness campaign on how to drive
efficiently In order to drive more efficiently, these are the recommended
guidelines=
Driving <abits
There are infinite variations of possibilities that can affect driving style 9ome factors
that influence the driving techni"ues of the driver are
Types of road
;eather condition
Traffic flow
The type of roads and weather conditions are the two things beyond the control of the
driver <owever, traffic flow can be improved and streamlined by proper road
management and improved driving s!ills Meanwhile, fuel can also be saved by
strictly avoiding unnecessary of these following driving habits=
Throttling
&re"uent acceleration and bra!ing consumes up to 021 extra fuel re"uired to reach a
particular destination if diving at a cruising speed of 50 !mIhr It causes excessive
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ")$
tire wear and also reduces life of bra!e pads Always accelerate gently and anticipate
stops to avoid sudden bra!ing
Idling
9witch off vehicles engine when not in use and avoid excessive throttling when
waiting at the traffic light Do not leave vehicles unattended with engine idling, as
this wastes fuel
)se of clutch
)sing the clutch unnecessarily reduces a lot of useful power generated by engine and
results in wasted fuel Always use the clutch smoothly and only when necessary
Maintenance 9chedule
By following the manufacturerQs instructions on maintenance will not only reduce the
fuel bill but also increase the life of the engine An energy conscious motorist can
save as much as -21 of fuel bill and help the nation to save valuable amount of fuel
In the following section information is provided on chec!s of various components
that need to be thoroughly monitored at the time of tune#up
Tune )p
@egular tuning can save up to -21 fuel Blac! smo!e from exhaust is due to
incomplete combustion of fuel A proper fuel consumption record needs to be
maintained If it drops more than -21, the motorcycle needs to be tuned by a
competent mechanic
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ")(
Tyre 6ressure
)nder inflated tires not only reduce the tire life by as much as %01, but due to
increased rolling resistance, it also increases the fuel consumption Tests have shown
that a %01 under inflation increases fuel consumption by 01
9par! 6lugs
The spar! plug is ensured to be properly inspected and cleaned The following are
also chec!ed=
# 9par! plug gap
# ;ear or erosion of electrode
# &ouling
# *arbon deposits
# *rac!s Deformation
It is advisable that the spar! plug is cleaned in a spar! plug cleaner for these
following engines=
# % stro!e motorcycle engine= spar! plugs needs to be cleaned
every 422!m and replaced after every 0,222 !m
# 5 stro!e motorcycle engine= spar! plugs needs to be cleaned
every 4,222 !m and replaced after every -0,222 !m
Air *leaner
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "))
&ilter needs to be cleaned using compressed air every -,222 !m and replaced after
every 4,222 !m
Battery
6roper maintenance of battery will ensure easy starts To maintain the battery is in
top condition, battery electrolyte needs to be chec!ed with a hydrometer and ensured
that the specific gravity of battery electrolyte is between -%32 #-%E2 +at
%2\*I3E\&, The battery is recharged if the hydrometer shows specific gravity less
than -%%2 Battery electrolyte level also needs to be chec!ed This should be
between the upper and lower limits indicated on the battery If re"uired, distilled
water is added to raise the level to the upper mar!
'xhaust 9ystem
The performance of a two stro!e engine is dependent upon the condition of the
diffuser pipe in the exhaust muffler 8ver a short period of time it gets cho!ed due to
carbon deposits The diffuser pipe re"uires monthly cleaning to remove the deposited
carbon This should be done by using a wire brush Note=
'ngine Aubricants
The usage of a multiviscosity engine oil is
encouraged
New modified or slippery oils are designed to improve
fuel efficiency by 4 to E1
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ")*
Dirty engine oil causes added friction and engine wear
'ngine oil should be changed after the engine has
properly warmed up
Always drain oil thoroughly by removing the drain
bolt
@emember to reinstall the drain bolt before filling up
the recommended oil up to the proper level
To chec! the engine oil level, support the motorcycle
on the main stand with the engine stopped ;ait for %#4 minutes after shutting
off the engine and then chec! the oil level
'ngine lubricant when added in right proportion on
two stro!e engine reduces engine wear and increases engine life It also reduces
formation of deposits in the combustion chamber and minimi7es spar! plug
fouling
Re,eren%e
Aprilia DiTech Information Z%225[wwwspeed#sportscom
Bleviss D -.EE Th$ n$> Oi4 Crisis and F7$4 E&+n+#" T$&hn+4+(i$s8 Pr$parin( %h$
Li(h% Transp+r%a%i+n Ind7s%r" ;+r %h$ /..9s New ?or!
Australian Greenhouse 8ffice, &uel *onsumption label Z%224[
F7$4 C+ns7#p%i+n G7id$, ''
nd
Edi%i+n J'99/E'99'KL Australian Greenhouse 8ffice
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ ")+
&uel 'conomy Guide Z%225[, )9 Department of 'nergy, )9 'nvironmental
6rotection Agency wwwfueleconomygov
Ber$aya Motor 9dn Bhd (lang, 9elangor
*Difiglio, A&ulton Z-...[L )+> %+ r$d7&$ S a7%+#+-i4$ (r$$nh+7s$ (as
$#issi+nsL Paris, Fran&$5
'nergy and 'nviron Anal, Inc -./. T$&hn+4+(i&a40C+s% R$4a%i+ns %+ pda%$5 D8'
'nergy and 'nviron Anal, Inc -..2 An ass$ss$#$n% +; P+%$n%ia4 Pass$n($r Car
F7$4 E&+n+#" O-M$&%iv$s ;+r '9/9, Arlington
'nergy and 'nviron Anal, Inc-..2 Ana4"sis +; Th$ F7$4 E&+n+#" B+7ndr" ;+r
'9/9 and C+#piras+n %+ Pr+%+%"p$s )9
&ord A, 9utherland @F -.E% Th$ O7%4++k ;+r I#pr+v$d A7%+#+-i4$ F7$4 E;;i&i$n&"
Aos Alamos
&uel *atalyst Technical Buletinwwwprotecusacom
Gray *A, von <ippel & -.E- Th$ F7$4 E&+n+#" +; Li(h% V$hi&4$s 9ci Am
Greene DA and De*icco,F Z%222[L 'ngineering#'conomic Analyses of Automotive
&uel E&+n+#" P+%$n%ia4 in %h$ ni%$d S%a%$s
<eavenrich @M and <ellman (< -... Li(h% D7%" A7%+#+%iv$ T$&hn+4+(" and
F7$4 E&+n+#" Tr$nds Thr+7(h /... '6A
<ittman Assoc, Inc -./3 F7$4 E&+n+#" C+s% R$4a%i+nship ;+r F7%7r$ A7%+#+-i4$s
&ederal 'nergy Administration, *olumbia
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "*#
<onda ;orlwide Technology *lose#upwwwworldhondacom
Fohn M De*icco Z-..0[L Pr+M$&%$d F7$4 Savin(s and E#issi+ns r$d7&%i+ns ;r+#
4i(h% V$hi&4$s F7$4 E&+n+#" S%andards
Mahlia, TMI, Mas$u!i, << K *houdhury, IA Z%22%a[ Th$+r" +; $n$r("
$;;i&i$n&" s%andards and 4a-$4s, En$r(" C+nv$rsi+n and Mana($#$n%5
Mahlia, TMI, Mas$u!i, << K *houdhury, IA Z%22%b[ D$v$4+p#$n% +; $n$r("
4a-$4s ;+r r++# air &+ndi%i+n$r in Ma4a"sia8 #$%h+d+4+(" and r$s74%s, En$r("
C+nv$rsi+n and Mana($#$n%5
Mahlia, TMI, Mas$u!i, << , *houdhury, IA K Amalina, MA Z%224[ C+s%E
B$n$;i% Ana4"sis +; I#p4$#$n%in( Mini#7# En$r(" E;;i&i$n&" S%andards ;+r
)+7s$h+4d R$;ri($ra%+rEFr$$$:$rs in Ma4a"sia5
Mahlia, TMI, Mas$u!i, <<, *houdhury, IA K Norleha, A@ Z%22%[ Pr+M$&%$d
E4$&%ri&i%" Savin(s ;r+# I#p4$#$n%in( Mini#7# En$r(" E;;i&i$n&" S%andard ;+r
)+7s$h+4d R$;ri($ra%+rs in Ma4a"sia
Malaysia Motor TraderZ%225[ Th$ Car Lis%$d Pri&$s in Rin((i% Ma4a"sia
wwwmotortradercommy
Mar! Archer, Greg Bell Z%22-[ Advan&$d E4$&%r+ni& F7$4 InM$&%i+n S"s%$# H An
E#issi+ns S+47%i+n ;+r B+%h 'E and 1Es%r+k$ S#a44 V$hi&4$ En(in$s5 9yner$et 9ystem
Integration, Balcatta, Australia
6a!istan 'nergy and Management *entre I#pr+v$ F7$4 E;;i&i$n&" +; M+%+r&"&4$
wwwpeemacsdnp!org
ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "*%
6etrol saverZ%224[ Advan&$ Ma(n$%i& D$vi&$wwwpetrolsaverorgu!
9am Aeighton, 9teven Ahern Z%224[ F7$4 E&+n+#" Advan%a($s +n Indian ' S%r+k$s
and 1 S%r+k$s M+%+r&"&4$s Fi%%$d Wi%h Dir$&% F7$4 InM$&%i+n5 9A' 6aper 8rbital
'ngine *ompany, Australia
9tephane Barbusse Z%22-[ M+%+r&"&4$s, M+p$ds 8P+447%in( E#issi+ns and En$r("
C+ns7#p%i+n5 Ini%ia4 O-s$rva%i+ns5 AD'M', Transport Technology Department,
&rance
9tacy * Davis, 9usan ; Diegel Z%224[Transp+r%a%i+n En$r(" Da%a B++k8 Edi%i+n
'@5 *enter for Transportation Analysis 'ngineering 9cience and Technology
Division
Technology @oadmap for The %-
st
*entury Truc! 6rogram
Z%222[wwwgovdoeIbridge
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A""ENDIX A
#
"######
'######
(######
*######
%#######
%"######
%'######
%(######
%*######
# $ %# %$ "# "$ &# &$
Year
C
a
r
0
&igure 3A- *ar growth in Malaysia
#
"######
'######
(######
*######
%#######
%"######
%'######
%(######
%*######
# $ %# %$ "# "$ &# &$
Year
M
o
t
o
r
2
9
2
3
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0
&igure 3A% Motorcycle growth in Malaysia
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#
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%!(##!###
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# $ %# %$ "# "$ &# &$
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&igure 3A4 Aorry growth in Malaysia

#
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&igure 3A5 Bus growth in Malaysia

ECONOMIC PANNING UNIT! MAY "##$ "*'

031 Energy Use in The Transportation Sector of Malaysia

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031 Energy Use in The Transportation Sector of Malaysia

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ENERGY USE IN THE TRANSPORTATION

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&igure 3A4 Aorry growth in Malaysia

&igure 3A5 Bus growth in Malaysia

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