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SEISMIC VULNERABILITY EVALUATION OF URBAN STRUCTURES

IN METRO MANILA

PART 1: GENERATION OF STRONG GROUND MOTION FROM A
SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE OF THE WEST VALLEY FAULT

Nelson Pulido, Bartolome Bautista, Leonila Bautista, Hisakazu Sakai, Hiroshi Arai and
Tetsuo Kubo


ABSTRACT : The West Valley Fault System, which crosses Metro Manila from the south to
the north, poses a very important seismic hazard to the city. We performed a broadband
frequency strong ground motion simulation in the Metro Manila region, for an outcropping
engineering bedrock site condition, based on several fault rupture scenarios and a multi-
asperity model. We considered two possible scenarios of fault rupture within the West
Valley fault system. The first scenario by assuming a total fault rupture length of 63km
(Mw=6.76) and the second scenario we assumed a shorter fault rupture length of 34km
(Mw=6.47). We calculated the ground motion at two sites located in the southern part of the
fault, in the Muntinlupa city, by constraining the structure velocity model for our
calculations from results of microtremor array measurements at both sites. The bedrock
ground motion obtained in this study is used as input motion to calculate the nonlinear soil
response at the Muntinlupa sites, and subsequently to study the seismic performance of
existing school buildings in Metro Manila.

KEYWORDS: Seismic Vulnerability, West Valley Fault, Earthquake Scenario, Strong
Ground Motion, Muntinlupa city.

1 INTRODUCTION

The Marikina Valley is a pull-apart basin bounded by escarpments of the East and West
Valley fault systems (Figure 1). Right-lateral movement of the West and East Valley faults
suggests clockwise rotation of the fault block underlying the valley (Nelson et. al. 2000).
Landforms indicative of latest Pleistocene and Holocene strike-slip faulting, such as offset
stream terraces and shutter ridges, are widespread along the traces of the East and West
Valley fault systems north of the Pasig River. Landforms suggesting repeated rupture of the
West Valley fault have not been identified South of the Pasig River (Punongbayan et. al.,
1996). Based on these observations Nelson et al. (2000) concluded that the chance of an
earthquake larger than M 7 on faults of the Marikina Valley seems small.
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Table 1. Fault parameters for Scenarios 1 and 2


In the present study we considered two possible scenarios of fault rupture within the West
Valley fault. The first one by assuming a total fault rupture length of 63km (Mw=6.76) from
the northern splay of the West Valley fault up to slightly South of Muntinlupa city (scenario
1). The second scenario we assumed a shorter fault rupture length of 34km (Mw=6.47), not
going southward of the Pasig River (Table 1). The above observations suggest that scenario
2, although less critical than scenario 1 from the point of view of the radiated strong ground
motion, could have a larger probability to occur.
We calculated an outcrop engineering bedrock ground motion at two sites located in the
southern part of the fault, at the Muntinlupa city by using a broadband frequency simulation
methodology (Pulido at al. 2003). The structure velocity model for our calculations was
constrained by the results of microtremor array measurements performed at both sites.

2 METHODOLOGY

We estimate the broadband frequency (0.1Hz to 20 Hz) near fault ground motion from a
hybrid simulation technique that combines deterministic wave propagation modelling for the
low frequencies with a stochastic technique for the high frequencies. The basic idea of the
simulation methodology is to evaluate the strong ground motion radiated from a finite fault
source model composed of asperities embedded in a flat layered velocity structure. The
ground motion at a particular site is obtained from the contributions of the seismic radiation
from all the asperities in the fault plane that are assumed to have a finite area.

2.1 Low Frequency Ground motion
To calculate low frequency ground motion (0.1 to 1.0Hz) we subdivide the asperity into
several subfaults or point sources and simply add the time delayed ground motion from them
by applying a constant rupture velocity. The seismogram from each point source is obtained
numerically by the Discrete Wave Number method of Bouchon (1981), which computes the
wave propagation in a flat-layered crustal velocity structure, for a particular focal mechanism
and source moment function. The point source moment function is defined as a smoothed
ramp as follows:

+ =

)
2
( * 4
tanh 1 *
2
) (
0
t
M
t M
(1)
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Table 2. Asperity parameters for Scenarios 1 and 2

Note: parameters of scenario 2 in parenthesis when different to those of scenario 1.

where M
o
is the point source seismic moment, t is the rupture time, and is the asperity rise
time.

2.2 High Frequency Ground Motion
High frequency ground motion (1 to 20 Hz) is calculated from a finite asperity as previously
but the ground motion radiated from the point sources is obtained by using the stochastic
approach of Boore (1983) modified by introducing a frequency dependent radiation pattern
model (Pulido et. al. 2003). The procedure of summation of the point source contributions
differ from the one applied for the low frequencies; for high frequencies the summation is
obtained by applying the empirical Greens function method proposed by Irikura (1986),
which is very efficient for the radiation of high frequency ground motion from finite faults.
The frequency dependent radiation pattern R
pi
(,, f) is introduced in order to account for the
effect of the pattern on intermediate frequency ground motions (1 to 3 Hz). The i component
of acceleration Fourier spectra for a point source is obtained as follows:


R
f f P e F f f S M f R
f A
f Q fR
s c pi
i
3
max
) (
0
4
) , ( ) , ( ) , , (
) (

=
(2)

3
1
49000

=
o
a
c
M
f

(3)
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Figure 1. Landsat image of the Metro Manila region showning the West and East Valley
fault systems.

+
=
max
max
1
1
) , (
f
f
f f P
(4)
where M
o
is the point source seismic moment (in Nm in eq. 3), S( f, f
c
) is the omega square
source model (Brune 1970) with corner frequency f
c
(eq. 3), is the point source stress
drop (in Mpa), F
s
is the amplification factor due to the free surface, R is the station-point
source distance and and are the average density and S-wave velocity of the media. The
exponential term accounts for the regional attenuation of Q which increases with the
frequency as a power law of the form af
b
, where a and b determine the strength of
attenuation. P is the high-frequency cut-off of the point-source acceleration spectra for
frequencies above f
max
(eq. 4). More details of the simulation technique are explained in
Pulido et al. (2003).

3 FAULT AND ASPERITY PARAMETERS

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Figure 2. Velocity model at sites A and B. We assume the same model at both sites for
depths below 4km. For shallower depths we use results from microtremors array
measurements at every site.
To obtain the fault seismic moment and asperity area we used the empirical scalings of
Somerville (1999). The asperities seismic moment, stress drops and rise time were calculated
using the asperity model of Das and Kostrov (1986) and Boatwright (1987). The rupture
velocity was assumed as 90% of the average S-wave velocity, and allowed to vary randomly
in a prescribed interval (as for the rise time), to improve the high frequency generation (Table
2). The velocity model was obtained by overlapping the crustal velocity model used for
routine epicenter locations at PHIVOLCS, with the shallow (<2 km) velocity model obtained
from microtremor array measurements at sites A and B in Muntilupa (Arai et al. 2003) (Figure
2). The S-wave velocity for the shallower layer of our model, at sites A and B corresponds to
an engineering bedrock (Vs=700m/s)(Figure 2). Therefore our simulation of the ground
motion will be performed for an engineering bedrock outcropping site. The simulation of the
ground motion by considering the non-linear response of soil layers with smaller S-wave
velocity is performed in a companion paper (Sakai et. al. 2003). We use a high frequency
attenuation Q value obtained from aftershocks of the 1990 Luzon earthquake (Kanao et al.
1992).
The total asperity area at every fault segment was calculated from an empirical ratio of the
total asperity area (S
a
) to the fault rupture area (S) (Somerville et al. 1999):
22 . 0 = S S
a
(5)
Results from a dynamic model of the rupture of a circular fault (with radius R ) with an
asperity (with radius r ) at its center (Das and Kostrov, 1986, Boatwright 1987), combined
with equation (5), suggest that the ratio between the asperity stress drop to the fault average
stress drop is equal to 0.47. If we assume an asperity model the total seismic moment can be
calculated as follows (Boatwright 1987):
R r
M
a
o
2
7
16
= (6)
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Figure 3. PGV distribution from two scenario earthquakes of the West Valley fault (scenarios 1
and 2). We assume two fault segments and equal number of asperities depicted by thin and thick
black lines. Hypocenter is shown by a star. Simulation is performed every 5 km by assuming an
S-wave velocity of 800 m/s.

Replacing (5) into (6) we obtain the stress drop of asperities:
2 3
07 . 11
S
M
a
o
a
= (7)

Subsequently the seismic moment from the asperities is calculated by using the Brunes crack
model (1970):
2 3
7
16

a
a asp
S
M
(8)

4 RESULTS

Scenario 1 produced the most critical ground motion at Muntinlupa among the two scenarios
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Figure 4. EW component of Acceleration and Velocity waveforms and response spectra at sites A
and B, for scenario 1.


















Figure 5. NS component of Acceleration and Velocity waveforms and response spectra at
sites A and B, for scenario 1.


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Figure 6. Comparison of empirical PGA and PGV attenuation laws, with the simulated
values from scenarios 1 and 2. Simulation is performed for Vs=800 m/s.

considered. As shown in Figure 3, a very important directivity effect is observed towards
Muntinlupa, for the case of a unilateral southward rupture propagation. The location of the
asperities plays a very important role for the estimation of peak ground motions. In the
present simulations the asperity locations were choosen in order to generate the ground
motion with the largest possible PGV at Muntinlupa (sites A and B). The ground motion from
scenario earthquake 2, although less critical than scenario earthquake 1 for the Muntinlupa
city (sites A and B, Figure 3), has a larger probability to occur, as might be inferred from
observations by Punonbayan et. al. (1996) of low activity of the West Valley fault south of the
Pasig river.
In Figure 4 we can observe that large directivity pulses of approximately two seconds are
generated in the EW velocity component of ground motion. On the other hand the NS ground
motion is much smaller than the EW ground motion at sites A and B. This particular feature is
explained by the fact that the EW component of ground motion at sites A and B almost
corresponds to a maximum in the nodal plane of SH-waves (maximum radiation) in the fault-
perpendicular component. On the other hand the small PGV values in the NS component are
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associated with a minimum in the nodal plane of SH-waves for the fault-parallel component
for sites close to the fault (Figure 5). The velocity and acceleration response spectra also
show clear peaks around 2 sec for the EW component (Figure 4). Site B has in general larger
peak ground motions compared with site A, because of the difference in the velocity model.
The shallower layer of Vs=700m/s and 400m thickness at site B is responsible of producing
larger ground motions around 2 sec compared with site A. The largest PGA and PGV reach
values of around 700 cm/s
2
and 100 cm/s at site B and 400 cm/s
2
and 66 cm/s at site A.
We obtained a good agreement between our simulations for scenarios 1 and 2 and some PGA
and PGV empirical attenuation laws for a similar fault type (strike-slip), and site conditions
(Vs = 800 m/s) (Figure 6).

5 CONCLUSIONS

We have calculated the strong ground motion at an outcrop engineering bedrock soil
condition at two sites located in the Muntinlupa city, south of Metro Manila. The ground
motion was obtained for two possible scenario earthquakes within the West Valley fault
system. We obtained that a hypothetical M6.8 from the West Valley fault, with an unilateral
southward rupture propagation, generates the most critical bedrock ground motion at
Muntinlupa city. However this scenario might have a smaller probability to occur compared
with other scenarios with smaller fault length with a fault rupture not going southward of the
Pasig River.
Large directivity pulses around two seconds are observed in the EW component of ground
motion for a site located very close to the fault line (within 2 km). For sites located at larger
distances from the fault this might not be the case.
Empirical attenuation laws for the PGA and PGV for similar fault type and site conditions
provide a good constraint on the fault and asperities parameters of our model.


REFERENCES

Arai, H., T. Kubo, 2003. Strong Motion Estimation in Metro Manila (Philippines) from a Scenario
Earthquake of the West Valley Fault (Part 2), Proceedings of the 2
nd
Annual Meeting of Japan
Association for Earthquake Engineering, 152-153.

Boatwright, J., 1988. The Seismic Radiation from Composite Models of Faulting, Bull. Seism. Soc.
Am., 78, 2, 489-508.

Bouchon, M., 1981. A simple method to calculate Greens functions for elastic layered media, Bull.
Seism. Soc. Am., 71, 4, 959-971.

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Brune, J.N., 1970. Tectonic stress and the spectra of seismic shear waves from earthquakes, J.
Geophys. Res., 75, 4997-5009.

Das, S. and B. V. Kostrov, 1986. Fracture of a single asperity on a finite fault: A model for weak
earthquakes?, In Das, S. J. Boatwright, and C. Scholz, eds. : Earthquake Source Mechanism,
AGU., Washington D. C., 91-96.

Irikura, K., 1986. Prediction of strong acceleration motion using empirical Greens function, 7
th

Japan. Earthq. Eng. Symp. 151-156.

Kanao, M., K. Ito, 1992. Attenuation of Coda Waves in the Source Area of the 1990 July 16 Luzon
Earthquake, Philippines, Bull. Disas. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto University, 42 (2), No. 365.

Nelson, A.R., S. Personius, R. Rimando, R. Punongbayan, N. Tungol, H. Mirabueno, A. Rasdas,
2000. Multiple Large Earthquakes in the Past 1500 Years on a Fault in Metropolitan Manila, the
Philippines, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 90, 1, 73-85.

Pulido, N. and T. Kubo, 2003. Near-Fault Strong Motion Complexity of the 2000 Tottori Earthquake
(Japan) from a Broadband Source Asperity Model, Tectonophysics (in press).

Punongbayan, R. S., J. A. Daligdig, G. M. Besana, N. M. Tugol, and R. E. Rimando, 1996, The
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Journal of Volcanology and Seismology, 36pp.

Sakai, H., H. Arai, T. Kubo, B. Bautista, M. L. Bautista, 2004. Seismic Vulnerability Evaluation of
Urban Structures in The Metro-Manila, Part 3: Response of Shallow Soil Layers, Proceedings of
the 2
nd
Annual Meeting of Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering, 154-155.

Somerville, P., K. Irikura, R. Graves, S. Sawada, D. Wald, N. Abrahamson, Y. Iwasaki, T. Kagawa,
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ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Nelson Pulido, Dr. Sc, is Researcher at the Structural Performance Team, Earthquake Disaster
Mitigation Research Center, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention
(EDM), 4F Human Renovation Museum, 1-5-2 Kaigandori, Wakihama, Chuo-ku Kobe 651-0073,
Japan. (E-mail: nelson@edm.bosai.go.jp)

Bartolome C. Bautista, Dr. Sc., is Chief Science Research Specialist, Philippine Institute of
Volcanology and Seismology, Philippines (E-mail: bart_bautista@yahoo.com)

Maria Leonila P. Bautista, Dr. Sc., is Science Research Specialist, Philippine Institute of Volcanology
and Seismology, Philippines (E-mail: leyo@phivolcs.dost.gov.ph)

Hisakazu Sakai, Dr. Eng., is Researcher at the Structural Performance Team, Earthquake Disaster
Mitigation Research Center, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention,
Japan. (E-mail: sakai@edm.bosai.go.jp)

Hiroshi Arai, Dr. Eng., is Deputy Team Leader, Structural Performance Team, Earthquake Disaster
Mitigation Research Center, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention,
Japan (E-mail: arai@edm.bosai.go.jp)

Tetsuo Kubo, Dr. Eng., is the Team Leader of the Structural Performance Team at EDM, as well as
Professor of the Department of Architecture, Graduate School of Engineering, University of Tokyo,
Japan (E-mail: kubo@arch.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We would like to thank Mr. Ishmael C. Narag and Ms. Esmeralda C. Banganan from the Philippine
Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) for their invaluable help during the array
microtremors observations at Muntinlupa. Also we would like to express our gratitude to Engineer
Oscar Oquendo, officer of the Disaster Action of Muntinlupa city for his help in local coordination of
the drilling sites.

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