Journal of Hydrology, 145 (1993) 191-205 191

El sevi er Sci ence Publ i sher s B.V., Ams t e r da m

[3]
On the transposition of areal reduction factors for
rainfall frequency estimation
A.S. Omolayo
School of Pure and Applied Sciences. The Universi O' of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji
(Received 30 April 1991; revision accepted 21 July 1992)
ABSTRACT
Omolayo, A.S., 1993. On the transposition of areal reduction factors for rainfall frequency estimation. J.
Hydrol., 145: 191-205.
The meaning and significance of areal reduction factors in the estimation of areal rainfall for flood
frequency studies are examined. It is common for areal reduction factors calculated for one region to be
transposed to another but little testing of this practice has been reported. The present study suggests that
the United States 1 day reduction factors are generally higher than the Australian values but that they may
be satisfactorily transposed to Australian capital city sites for areas of between 200 and 500 km 2.
I NT R ODUC T I ON
I mpor t a nt appl i cat i ons of rainfall dat a occur when vol umes or average
dept hs of rainfall over vari ous areas (usually river cat chment s) are requi red
r at her t han i ndi vi dual poi nt values. For these uses it is oft en necessary to
know t he frequency or \ r et ur n per i od t hat is associ at ed wi t h t he areal rainfall
whi ch is of interest. Iff~such cases, t he 50 year r et ur n per i od areal rainfall
cannot be est i mat ed si mpl y by t aki ng a wei ght ed average of t he 50 year r et ur n
peri od of poi nt values. Thi s is because it woul d be i mpossi bl e for all t he 50
year poi nt values t o occur t oget her in t he same cat chment in t he same st orm.
The areal average of 50 year poi nt values woul d, in general, over est i mat e t he
50 year areal rainfall and a me t hod must be f ound to allow for this bias. The
met hod generally used t o obt ai n cat chment average rainfall is t o appl y an
areal r educt i on fact or ( ARF) , t o t he wei ght ed average of t he poi nt est i mat es
wi t hi n t he cat chment . St at ed in anot her way, t he ARF is a coefficient whi ch
when used t o mul t i pl y t he average poi nt rainfall of a given dur at i on and
Cor r es pondence to: A. S. Omol ayo, School of Pur e and Appl i ed Sciences, The Uni ver s i t y of t he
Sout h Pacific, Suva, Fiji.
0022-1694/ 93/ $06. 00 1993 - - El sevi er Sci ence Publ i sher s B.V. Al l ri ght s r eser ved
192
A.S. OMOLAYO
ret urn peri od yields the correspondi ng areal mean dept h for the dur at i on and
ret urn period.
The need for areal reduct i on factor in estimating cat chment rainfall fre-
quencies from poi nt rainfall frequencies has long been recognized. Efforts to
have the concept adopt ed for use in design flood est i mat i on began in the
Uni t ed States (U.S. Weat her Bureau, 1957). Similar efforts were made two
decades later in the Uni t ed Ki ngdom (Nat ural Envi ronment al Research
Counci l (NERC), 1975). Hershfield (1962) identified two types of reduct i on
factors, st orm-cent red and fixed-area, which are briefly described below, while
an at t empt was made by Bell (1976) to clarify the meaning, significance and
the need for areal reduct i on factors; but there still remai n some problems in
their recogni t i on and application. One such probl em is the transposition of
areal reduct i on factors comput ed for a cert ai n region to ot her regions. For
instance, the Uni t ed States reduct i on factors have been r ecommended for use
in Aust ral i a (Institution of Engineers, Australia, 1987) while those of the
Uni t ed Ki ngdom have been adopt ed in Nor way for estimating areal rainfall
for cat chment s up to 5000 km 2 (Forl and and Kristofferson, 1989). The present
study investigates the suitability of the Uni t ed States values to the Aust ral i an
envi ronment .
Storm-centred areal reduction factors
The area in which the rain falls is not fixed but changes with each storm.
The representative poi nt for calculating the areal reduct i on factor is the centre
of the storm, defined to be the poi nt of maxi mum rainfall. This also changes
with each storm. The areal reduct i on factor is given by:
ARF = R/ P (1)
where R is the areal st orm rainfall enclosed by a selected isohyet and within
whi ch the rainfall is everywhere equal to, or greater t han, the value for the
isohyet, and P is the maxi mum poi nt rainfall (at st orm centre). Since the
position of this maxi mum poi nt measur ement on the gr ound cannot be
predicted ahead of the st orm arrival, the area is chosen only after the st orm
has arrived. The average of C over many events may be regarded as the ' t rue'
st orm-cent red areal reduct i on fact or for the region. St orm-cent red areal
reduct i on factors can be used in probabl e maxi mum rainfall studies but are
incorrect for estimating areal rainfall of a part i cul ar frequency from poi nt
rainfalls. It will, therefore, not be dealt with furt her in the present study.
Fixed-area reduction factors
The fixed-area reduct i on factor is used in order to derive critical storms
TRANSPOSITION OF AREAL REDUCTION FACTORS FOR RAINFALL FREQUENCY ESTIMATION 193
whi ch are est i mat ed or assumed for pl anni ng and engi neeri ng design
purposes. These can be act ual st or ms t hat have occur r ed in t he past and are,
t herefore, expect ed agai n in t he fut ure, or t hey can be hypot het i cal st or ms t hat
have not act ual l y occur r ed but whi ch t he dat a suggest are possible or likely
at some t i me in t he future. A definite r et ur n per i od can be est i mat ed for t he
areal rainfall in these st or ms by relating t he areal values t o a represent at i ve
poi nt value r educed by the areal r educt i on factor.
The represent at i ve poi nt is in this case an average poi nt , havi ng t he mean
of all poi nt rainfalls in t he area. Thus, it is a hypot het i cal poi nt r at her t han
any par t i cul ar l ocat i on. As t he name implies, t he area is known bef or ehand
and fixed bot h in t i me and in space so t hat t he cent re of t he st or m need not
coi nci de wi t h the cent re of t he l ocat i on and need not even fall wi t hi n t he area
at all. Geogr aphi cal l y fixed-area r educt i on fact ors are, t herefore, based on
different part s of t he different st orms i nst ead of on the hi ghest poi nt values at
t he respective st or m centres, as is t he case wi t h t he st or m- cent r ed r educt i on
factors. The fixed-area r educt i on fact ors are not necessarily rel at ed to any
i ndi vi dual l y recorded st orm; t hey ori gi nat e in rainfall statistics. Thi s is why
they coul d also be referred t o as ' statistical r educt i on fact ors' .
Since interest is usual l y in ext reme events t hat cause fl oodi ng, an annual
ma xi mum series of poi nt and areal rainfall ( cor r espondi ng to t he selected
dur at i on) may be used. ' Ma xi mum' here implies t he hi ghest value in t he year.
The geographi cal l y fixed-area r educt i on f act or is cal cul at ed usi ng an equat i on
similar in f or m t o eqn. (1): R represent s t he mean of t he annual ma xi mum
areal values while P is t he mean of the annual ma xi mum poi nt values for t he
gauged poi nt s l ocat ed wi t hi n t he area (Bell, 1976). Thi s woul d not generally
be an ar i t hmet i c mean but r at her a wei ght ed average to allow for t he usually
uneven spatial di st r i but i on of raingauges.
Consi der a hypot het i cal cat chment represent ed as shown in Fig. 1 sampl ed,
for i nst ance, by f our gauges. If t he hypot het i cal st or m falling on this
cat chment has 50 year poi nt rai n at each poi nt , say, t he r et ur n per i od of t he
resulting areal rai n woul d be hi gher t han 50 years. To obt ai n t he 50 year areal
rainfall one applies t he fixed-area r educt i on fact or to t he average 50 year poi nt
rainfall, i.e.
(50 year areal~ ( wei ght ed average 50~
rainfall ) = \ year poi nt rainfall J x ARF (2)
In t he r et ur n peri ods of interest this rat i o is less t han 1.0, hence t he t er m area
' r educt i on' - f act or .
Curves of fixed-area r educt i on fact ors for t he 24 h and 1 h rainfall dur at i ons
showi ng these vari at i ons are pr esent ed for t he Uni t ed States and t he Uni t ed
194 A.S. OMOLAYO
I
50 yr
\
Fi g. 1. A hy po t he t i c a l st orm wi t h 50 year po i nt rai n at each s a mpl i ng poi nt .
Ki ngdom in Fig. 2. Vari ati on o f the ARF wi th the return period will not be
consi dered in the present study.
1 0
L
~: 0 9
o
o
z
O
O8
o
D
,
D
LU 0 7 '
x
0.6
0
o
' \ \ \ \
UK
- - - - A R F , s
- - - - - - ARF~,K
A R F ~ m
X A R F a ~
" ~ . . - ~ l-Day
} 1 -Hour
I I I I I I ~ I I }
1 O0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 500 6 0 0 7 0 0 ~q,qO 9 0 0 1000
A R E A ( k m 2)
Fi g. 2. Fi xe d- ar e a reduct i on f act ors.
TRANSPOSI TI ON OF AREAL REDUCTI ON FACTORS FOR RAI NFALL FREQUENCY ESTI MATI ON 195
The significance of fixed-area reduction factors
Fl ood frequency est i mat i on using the fixed-area reduct i on factor is
required not only for engineering design of dam spillways but also as a basis for
measures to mitigate flood hazards, whet her these measures involve st ruct ural
works, drainage, land-use regul at i on or flood warni ng systems. Streamflow
dat a generally provi de the most reliable estimates of flood frequencies. But
rainfall dat a are usually mor e widely available t han streamflow dat a, bot h
areally and temporally. It is also an acceptable engineering practice, in
situations where streamflow dat a are unavailable or grossly i nadequat e, to use
areal rainfall dat a as i nput into analytical procedures for estimating flood
peaks (Institution of Engineers, Australia, 1987).
The ' Rat i onal ' met hod of flood estimation, expresses flood peak as
Qr = KIrA (3)
where Qr represents the flood peak with average ret urn of T years, I r is area
Rr / dur at i on (where Rr is areal rainfall with ret urn period of T years) while A
is the cat chment area. The const ant K depends on the units used, the type of
cat chment and ret urn period. IT and Rr shoul d be estimated from weighted
average poi nt rainfall Pr adjusted by an areal reduct i on factor.
THE TRANSPOSI TI ON OF AREAL REDUCTI ON FACTORS
Not much wor k has been done to estimate values of areal reduct i on factors
in countries ot her t han the Uni t ed States of Ameri ca (US), the Uni t ed
Ki ngdom ( UK) and New Zeal and (A.I. Toml i nson, personal communi cat i on,
1983). This is because of the sparse net works of rainfall stations and short
records. In Australia and elsewhere the US values are generally assumed when
the need to use areal reduct i on factors is recognized. However, are the US
values appropri at e to Australia? There is no basis for using t hem outside the
US ot her t han the assumpt i on t hat climatically similar areas should have the
same values. In the case of Australia, while parts of Australia and the US may
be said to be climatically similar because they have similar mean annual
rainfall, mean annual t emperat ure and general t opography, orographi c effects
on rainfall are much stronger in the US (Brunt, 1970) leading t o different
st orm types and frequencies of occurrence. It is, therefore, arguabl e whet her
the US-based areal reduct i on factors will suit the Aust ral i an envi ronment .
METHODOLOGI ES
A number of met hods of estimating fixed-area reduct i on factors are
196 A.S. OMOLAYO
document ed. Empi ri cal met hods have been appl i ed for t he US and UK and
i ncl ude t hat of Bell while t heoret i cal met hods i ncl ude t hose of Roche (1963)
and Rodr i guez- I t ur be and Mej i a (1974); as well as t he t heor et i cal - empi r i cal
me t hod of Myers and Zehr (1980). Some of these met hods are briefly
expl ai ned below. In eqns. (4), (5) and (6) t hat fol l ow the symbol s have t he
fol l owi ng meani ngs: U u is t he annual ma xi mum poi nt rainfall at st at i on i in
year j ; U,~ is t he poi nt rainfall at st at i on i on t he day t he annual ma xi mum areal
rainfall occurs in year j ; w is t he Thi essen wei ght i ng fact or for the station; I
is t he numbe r of stations; J is t he l engt h of dat a record (years); r is t he rank.
US Weather Bureau method
Usi ng Thi essen (1911) wei ght i ng factors, t he areal rainfall of each event of
t he chosen dur at i on is cal cul at ed and t he hi ghest of these in each year of
record is selected. The mean of t he resul t i ng annual series t hr oughout t he
l engt h of record is comput ed. Thi s mean const i t ut es t he numer at or of eqn. (4).
The next step is t o pi ck t he hi ghest poi nt measur ement s at each st at i on in each
year. The gr and mean (or pool ed mean) over all st at i ons and over all years of
record is t he de nomi na t or of t he equat i on. The areal r educt i on fact or is
expressed similar to eqn. (1) as
a RVu s = Z Y', w,V;~/Z Z u~ (4)
j i j i
UK method
Al t hough areal rainfalls need to be comput ed, t hei r onl y use in this me t hod
is t o i dent i fy t he day t he annual ma xi mum event occurs. The poi nt measure-
ment s, U,'s, of this ma xi mum are not ed. The ma xi mum poi nt recordi ngs, U~,
at each st at i on in t he same year are identified. The rat i o of U,; to U~ at each
st at i on in t he year is f ound. The gr and mean of these rat i os over all st at i ons
and all years of record is adopt ed as t he areal r educt i on factor. The UK
me t hod is not as t r anspar ent as t he US and Bell's met hods; t he assumpt i ons
on whi ch it is based do not appear t o be document ed.
ARFuK = (1/IJ) Z Y'. UUU~j (5)
j i
Bell's method
In appl yi ng this me t hod t he values in the annual ma xi mum areal rainfall
series are r anked. The values in t he annual ma xi mum poi nt rainfall series at
each st at i on are also r anked. The Thi essen wei ght ed mean of poi nt rainfalls
TRANSPOSI TI ON OF AREAL REDUCTI ON FACTORS FOR RAI NFALL FREQUENCY ESTI MATI ON 197
of the same rank is t hen comput ed, resulting in annual series of weighted
maxi mum point rainfalls. This is essentially a device for pooling individual
frequency into a single representative one. The areal reduct i on fact or Cr of
rank r is the ratio of the areal rainfall of rank r to the weighted average point
rainfall of the same rank. This indicates the variation in the areal reduct i on
factor with rank and hence ret urn period. I f areal reduct i on factors are
assumed to be i ndependent of the ret urn period, as with the US and UK
methods, then the mean of Cr over all ranks estimates the areal reduct i on
factor for the location:
ARFBELL = ( 1 / J ) ~ C r = ~ - . ( wi Ui j ) r/ ~ - ~ ( wi Ut j ) r (6)
Rodri guez - I t urbe and Mej i a met hod
This is a correl at i on approach based on spatial process. It assumes the poi nt
rainfall process to be a st at i onary time series and its correl at i on function to
be isotropic and separable into spatial and t i me-dependent parts. Given t hat
A is the size of the area being considered the areal reduct i on fact or in this
met hod is defined as:
AR F R I M = rlA/2 (7)
The symbol r A is the expected correl at i on coefficient between two points
r andoml y selected on the chosen location but separated by the ' characteristic
distance' , D A . One of the points is usually a key or reference station and the
characteristic distance depends on the shape and size of the area.
The choice of the key station and the di l emma of which correl at i on coeffi-
cient value to pick if mor e t han one station happens to be positioned at the
characteristic distance constitute obstacles to the practical application of this
approach. The assumpt i on of i sot ropy implies t hat the correl at i on coefficient
is a function only of the distance between stations and not their ori ent at i on
but this does not appear to apply in the net work of stations in the Australian
capital cities. Mat er n (1960) and Rodri guez-It urbe and Mejia (1974) show
t hat the characteristic distance may be expressed by
dA = dI DA/ DI (8)
where dl, with a magni t ude of 0.5108, is the characteristic distance for a
location whose area is l km 2 while D A and DI are correspondi ng distances
within area size A and a similarly shaped area size of I km 2, respectively. I f the
location is circular these will be their respective radii so t hat
d A = 0.9054 D A. (9)
The characteristic distance thus approxi mat es 16.2 km for a 1000 km 2 circular
198 A. S . OMOLAYO
1 3 4 1 5 0
1 2
2 0
2 0 ~
i BRI SBANE
2 8
2 8
PERTH
A D E L A I D E
: : ~ M E L B O U R N E
; A N B E R R A
3 6
1 1 8
i 3),
1 5 0
Fig. 3. The geographical locations o f the capital cities.
area by the above met hod. Consequent l y the areal reducti on factor for this
l ocat i on will be esti mated by the square root o f the correl ati on coefficient for
stati ons that stand 16.2 km apart.
E S T I MA T E S F O R A U S T R A L I A N C A P I T A L CI T I E S
In the present section, attenti on is focussed on the appl i cati on o f these
met hodol ogi es to Austral i an rainfall data. In particular, they will be used to
derive areal reducti on factors for the purpose o f compari ng the performance
o f each met hod under the diverse cl i mati c regimes in whi ch the capital cities
are l ocated, and to i nvesti gate the suitability o f the US areal reducti on factors
for use in Australia. However, a bri ef description o f the rainfall regimes o f the
cities is gi ven first as fol l ows.
The ei ght Austral i an capital cities are Adel ai de, Brisbane, Canberra,
Darwi n, Hobart, Mel bourne, Perth and Sydney. Their geographi cal l ocati ons
are presented in Fig. 3. Amo n g the cities Adel ai de is the driest and Darwi n the
wettest (Linacre and Hobbs, 1977). The mean annual rainfall in Adel ai de is
onl y 500 mm, this is because the city often lies in the track o f anti -cycl ones and
also because rainfall is affected by the Mount Lofty Ranges whi ch lie to the
TRANSPOSITION OF AREAL REDUCTION FACTORS FOR RAINFALL FREQUENCY ESTIMATION 199
east of the city. Darwin, on the ot her hand, receives 1500 mm year ~ duri ng
the annual wet season. The rain comes mai nl y from t hunder st or ms associated
with the nort hwest monsoon which affects the city from November to March.
The period from May to Sept ember is, however, usually warm and dry.
Pert h' s rainfall is similarly unevenly distributed t hr ough the year. Januar y and
June mont hl y mean rainfalls in Pert h are 8 mm and 180 mm, respectively.
Long dry spells lasting mor e t han 45 days at a time are not uncommon
between Oct ober and February. In cont rast to Pert h and Darwin,
Mel bourne' s mean annual rainfall of 660mm is almost evenly distributed
t hrough the year. Summer rains in Mel bourne are generally of t hunder st or m
origin while winter rains are associated mainly with the passage of frontal
depressions.
Hobar t lies at the foot of Mt. Wellington (1270m), 30km from the open
sea. Its 600 mmye a r ~ rainfall is almost evenly distributed t hr ough the year.
However, Mt. Wellington causes large spatial variations in rainfall distribu-
tion between the various parts of the met ropol i t an area such t hat The Springs
which lies on the slope of the mount ai n often receives over 1400mm of rain
per year. Brisbane' s rainfall is not seriously affected by or ogr aphy as is the
case with Hobart . The reason being t hat Brisbane is situated in the coastal
plains surrounded by hills generally less t han 170m high. Brisbane receives
bot h summer and winter rains. Much of the summer rainfall is due to
convective storms within t roughs extending sout hwards from nor t her n
Australia while winter rainfall is largely associated with the passage of cold
fronts extending nort hwards from the mid-latitude depressions. Sydney' s
rains are associated with cold fronts and t hunderst orms. April is usually the
wettest mont h while September is the driest. However, at least 60 mm of rain
is received each mont h. Canberra is located 100 km inland unlike the ot her
capital cities which are located near the coast. Its rainfall, 622 mm year ~, is
almost evenly distributed t hr ough the year. And since the city is generally
under the influence of westerly winds variations in the rainfall are largely due
to variations in the strength and regularity of the westerly winds.
Criteria for choosing the locations
Circular areas of 100, 200, 250, 500 and 1000 km 2 were chosen within each
city. Darwi n and Canberra were left out because of their i nadequat e data. The
stations within the selected cities have long records and the net works of
raingauges are mor e dense t han elsewhere in Australia. The location of the
circular area within each city was adjusted to enclose the maxi mum number
of current rainfall stations with at least 30 years of data. The distributions of
the net work of stations within each of the six chosen cities are presented in
200 A.S. OMOLAYO
Fig. 4 for t he 1000 km 2 case. Each circular area was di vi ded i nt o Thi essen
pol ygons to comput e the wei ght i ng fact ors to be used wi t h t he stations.
Data sources and analysis
The availability of t he 1 day dat a is much bet t er t han for ot her dur at i ons,
so t hey were generally used in the cal cul at i ons. Dat a were suppl i ed by the
Commonwe a l t h Bureau of Met eor ol ogy in Mel bour ne and Sydney and f r om
t he Sydney Met r opol i t an Wat er, Sewerage and Dr ai nage Board. The dat a
cover t he per i od 1954-1983. The dat a si t uat i on for short er dur at i ons was
much less sat i sfact ory due t o sparsity of pl uvi ogr aph st at i ons whi ch also were
most l y unprocessed. 1 h dur at i on dat a for ei ght st at i ons wi t hi n t he Mel bour ne
met r opol i t an area were pr ovi ded by the Commonwe a l t h Bureau of Met eorol -
ogy in Mel bour ne.
As is usual for most rainfall records, t here were gaps in t he dat a. The gaps
were filled using st andar d met hods of maki ng est i mat es of missing dat a
( I nst i t ut i on of Engineers, Aust ral i a, 1958; Wiesner, 1970, p. 131). The dat a
per i od finally chosen for each circular area was fixed to ensure ma xi mum
number of st at i ons wi t h a concur r ent and al most unbr oken record. Thi s
reduced t he a mount of gap filling, but also reduced t he l engt h of record bel ow
30 years in some captial cities. The dat a peri od and t he number of st at i ons
encl osed wi t hi n the 1000 km 2 area in each city are present ed in Tabl e 1.
Cart esi an coor di nat es were det er mi ned for the posi t i on of each st at i on
referred to a c ommon ori gi n wi t hi n each circular area. The coor di nat es were
needed to det er mi ne t he i nt erst at i on di st ances as requi red for the comput at i on
OfdA. The areal r educt i on fact ors est i mat ed by t he four met hods t oget her wi t h
t he averages are given in Tables 2-5 for the l day rainfall dur at i on. These
averages have been pl ot t ed in Fig. 2 for each met hod. In the figure ARFus ,
for i nst ance, refers to t he average r educt i on fact ors given by t he US met hod,
and similarly for t he ot her met hods. The r educt i on fact ors for the hour l y
rainfall for Mel bour ne are given in Tabl e 6 but are not pl ot t ed in Fig. 2.
RESULTS
Consi der i ng t he 1 day r educt i on values first, t he Rodr i guez- I t ur be and
Mejia me t hod gave generally smaller values for t he areas st udi ed t han the
ot her met hods , as i ndi cat ed by Tabl es 2-5. While t he r educt i on fact ors shoul d
increase as t he size of area decreases, the values for Hobar t actually show a
ma xi mum a r ound t he 250 km 2 area for all met hods except t he US met hod.
Thi s anomal y may be due t o or ogr aphi c effects since Hobar t is a hilly city. As
i ndi cat ed earlier each circular area was adj ust ed to enclose t he ma xi mum
TRANSPOSITION OF AREAL REDUCTION FACTORS FOR RAINFALL FREQUENCY ESTIMATION 201
I q ' ~ 2 : " ~ ~ ' ~ . . . . " " ~ " " ' ~ " [ ' ~ ~ \ - "
~ ~ m o ~ . ~ l _ _ I HOBART I~ I L ~ ' ~ ~ 1 ! ,t I ~ " , ,
I o - o , ~' L - - c ' - - k
I \ ' l ~ ' ~ " Y . . . , L ,
- , , - ~ . ~ . ( ~ : - ; ~ t ~ / , ~ ' - , - ~ I ~ o ~ , , , o \ V ~ " ' ~ " V .
o.w.,, l ' L ~ ; ~ ' ,o ; 8 . ~
/ L / ~ . 2 Z " , , l , ~
L " ~ T ~ / / 7 ~ _ ~ _.,I/P,,,,<,
I ~ , o ~ _ . _ c , < > , , , , , .
" k l l o f l ~ e t l e ' . } - I l P O 0 "
Fig. 4. Di st ri but i on of st at i ons within the selected 1000 km 2 area in each city.
202
TABLE 1
Length o f dat a record for the ci ti es
A.S. OMOLAYO
Ci t y St at i ons Dat a peri od
Adel ai de II 1955-1983
Bri sbane 12 1954-1983
Hobart l0 1962-1981
Mel bourne 9 1954-1983
Perth 11 1962 1981
Sydney 11 1954-1983
number o f stati ons: the adj ust ment o f the 250 km 2 area i n Hobart mi ght have
pl aced it under more direct orographi c i nf l uence t han the ot her areas.
An anal ysi s o f vari ance was performed to test whet her the smal l differences
a mo ng the reduct i on factors for the six cities presented in Tabl es 2 - 5 are real
or due t o s ampl i ng vari ati on. In each case the c omput e d val ue o f vari ance
ratio was f ound not t o be si gni fi cant at the 5% level for 5 and 24 degrees o f
f reedom. The reducti on factors were, therefore, represented by average
val ues, gi ven in the tables.
Bell's me t hod gave the hi ghest average val ues. Thi s is probabl y as a result
o f the ranki ng i ncorporat ed i nt o the met hod. The averages gi ven by the US
me t hod are hi gher t han t hose by the UK met hod. The US and UK averages
have been plotted; they are l abel l ed ARFus and ARFuK in Fi g. 2. It s houl d
be recalled that for est i mat i on o f desi gn areal rainfalls in Austral i a the use o f
the US- bas ed reduct i on factors (US o f Fi g. 2) has been recommended. Fi gure
2 i ndi cates that the US curve is general l y hi gher t han ARFu s , the Austral i a
TABLE 2
1 day areal reduct i on factors by US me t hod
City Area (kin 2)
1000 500 250 200 1 O0
Adel ai de 0.884 0.909 0.908 0.927 0.954
Bri sbane 0.843 0.956 0.963 0.961 0.960
Hobart 0.879 0.844 0.908 0.920 0.869
Mel bourne 0.901 0.917 0.935 0.927 0.939
Perth 0.865 0.882 0.982 0.964 0.957
Sydney 0.864 0.916 0.936 0.943 0.863
Average 0.873 0.904 0.939 0.940 0.924
USI 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.97
TRANSPOSITION OF AREAL REDUCTION FACTORS FOR RAINFALL FREQUENCY ESTIMATION
TABLE 3
I day areal reduction factors by UK method
203
City Area (km 2)
1000 500 250 200 100
Adelaide 0.834 0.855 0.905 0.928 0.930
Brisbane 0.908 0.920 0.932 0.922 0.938
Hobart 0.855 0.828 0.863 0.853 0.835
Melbourne 0.898 0.9 ! 4 0.937 0.938 0.945
Perth 0.863 0.860 0.918 0.915 0.929
Sydney 0.881 0.895 0.920 0.902 0.926
Average 0.873 0.879 0.913 0.909 0.916
UK 1 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94
curve. Howe ve r , c ompa r i s on of act ual ARF val ues f r om Tabl e 2 shows t hat
t he US val ues and t he Aus t r al i a aver ages have t he same val ue of 0.94 f or t he
2 5 0 k m 2 ar ea and are qui t e cl ose t o each ot he r bet ween t he ar ea r ange of
200- 500 km 2. In ot he r wor ds, t he US- der i ved r educt i on f act or s ma y be safel y
empl oyed f or desi gn pur pos es wi t hi n this r ange of ar eas in Aust r al i a.
A det ai l ed di scussi on si mi l ar t o t hat on t he 1 day r educt i on f act or s c a nnot
be gi ven at this st age f or t he 1 h r educt i on f act or s because t he 1 h val ues are
onl y c omp u t e d f or Me l bour ne . However , Tabl e 6 shows t hat t he f our com-
put a t i ona l me t hods gave si mi l ar val ues; and t he val ues fall bet ween 0.75 and
0.83. Thi s is a hi gher r ange of val ues c omp a r e d wi t h t he US- a nd t he UK-
der i ved val ues, also s hown in Tabl e 6, whi ch var y f r om 0.67 t o 0.76 and f r om
0.62 t o 0.79, respect i vel y.
TABLE 4
1 day areal reduction factors by Bell's method
City Area (km 2)
1000 500 250 200 100
Adelaide 0.856 0.889 0.945 0.948 0.949
Brisbane 0.930 0.947 0.953 0.948 0.964
Hobart 0.867 0.889 0.927 0.905 0.881
Melbourne 0.917 0.937 0.946 0.946 0.946
Perth 0.867 0.882 0.936 0.936 0.940
Sydney 0.907 0.923 0.929 0.932 0.939
Average 0.891 0.911 0.939 0.936 0.937
204
TABLE 5
1 day areal reduction factors by Rodriguez-Iturbe and Mejia's met hod
City Area (km 2)
1000 500 250 200 100
A.S. OMOLAYO
Adelaide 0.768 0.920 0.846 0.792 0.967
Brisbane 0.869 0.832 0.875 0.840 0.946
Hobart 0.809 0.488 0.768 0.642 0.696
Mel bourne 0.670 0.820 0.820 0.933 0.918
Perth 0.611 0.639 0.470 0.509 0.880
Sydney 0.549 0.875 0.881 0.893 0.779
Average 0.713 0.762 0.777 0.768 0.864
CONCLUSI ONS
An attempt has been made to di sti ngui sh between storm-centred and
fixed-area reducti on factors, thus removi ng the conf us i on that usual l y arises
in understandi ng and appl yi ng the concept o f areal reducti on factors in
rainfall frequency esti mati on. The justi fi cati on for usi ng the US reducti on
factors in Austral i a has al so been investigated empirically. The results show
that the US values are probabl y satisfactory in Austral i a for esti mati ng 24 h
area rainfalls for areal sizes between 200 and 500 km 2. The areal reducti on
factors presented in this study have been based on the assumpt i on that the
areal reducti on factor does not vary wi th the return period. Vari ati on wi th the
return period needs to be investigated in order to make more valid
concl usi ons. Furthermore, the areal reducti on factors for areas smaller than
100km 2 required for urban hydromet eorol ogi cal studies coul d not be
comput ed due to the wide scatter o f the stations. A model that incorporates
TABLE 6
I h areal reduction factors for Melbourne
Method Area (km 2 )
1000 500 250 200 100
US 0.790 0.778 0.750 0.800 0.808
UK 0.769 0.763 0.756 0.768 0.767
Bell 0.756 0.745 0.749 0.748 0.749
Rod/ Mej i a 0.773 0.834 0.815 0.815 0.797
US 1 - 0.68 0.73 0.75 0.82
UK1 0.62 0.68 0.73 0.75 0.79
TRANSPOSITION OF AREAL REDUCTION FACTORS FOR RAINFALL FREQUENCY ESTIMATION 205
bot h area size and the return period o f the reducti on factor is the subject o f
another paper.
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