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Predictive modeling involves the use of data to forecast future events. It relies on capturing
relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables from past occurrences and
exploiting this to predict future outcomes. Forecasting future financial events is a core actuarial skill
- actuaries routinely apply predictive-modeling techniques in insurance and other risk-management
applications. This book is for actuaries and other financial analysts who are developing their
expertise in statistics and wish to become familiar with concrete examples of predictive modeling.
The book also addresses the needs of more seasoned practicing analysts who would like an
overview of advanced statistical topics that are particularly relevant in actuarial practice. Predictive
Modeling Applications in Actuarial Science emphasizes lifelong learning by developing tools in an
insurance context, providing the relevant actuarial applications of online payment for school and
introducing advanced statistical techniques that can be used by analysts to gain a competitive
advantage in situations with complex data.
Using the foundation of linear models established in Section, we now address the broader
methodology of building regression models in an applied setting. Successful practical applications of
regression or other statistical modeling techniques do not begin with data and end with models.
Rather, they begin with a question, problem, or strategic initiative and end with a model or models
being used to improve decision making. The following sections illustrate the major steps in (i)
designing an analysis and preparing a suitable dataset, (ii) visually exploring the data, (iii) engaging
in an iterative modeling process, and (iv) selecting and validating a final model. Although the steps
appear to be sequentially completed, the process is truly iterative because patterns in residuals,
outliers, or high leverage points might lead to changes in the model. The first step of the modeling
process is to design a data analysis strategy that adequately addresses the question or problem
motivating the project.
The purpose of our case study is to model annual health care expenditures of individuals who have
been diagnosed with diabetes. The MEPS data are from panels 13 and 14 from 2009 and represent
individuals who had some health care expenditure for 2009.The set of possible variables include
those discussed in Section, as well as others. Medical expenditures, income, age, and body mass
index are all continuous variables. The Mental Health Index is an ordinal categorical variable, with 1
to 4 denoting the best to worst mental health status. The race variable is a categorical variable, with
the values white, black, Asian, American Indian, Hawaiian, and multiethnic. For our case study, we
collapsed the last four race categories into the single category other. Finally our MEPS sample
contains 13 binary variables, 7 of which are co morbidity indicators.
Finally we include a derived co morbidity count variable by simply counting the number of binary co
morbidity variables that have the value 1. The range of the variable is the set of integer values.
Deriving new variables is another aspect of the art of data analysis calling on creativity and
judgment. The initial dataset of school online payment contained 2,164 observations. As is often
the case in actuarial work, several of the variables have missing values. Although a complete
discussion of the treatment of missing data is beyond the scope of this chapter, we mention a few
central concepts.

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