Open Briefing | 1

The weekly briefing | 28 July 2014

Political and security risk updates


Africa: Nigerian president renews pledge to fight Boko ara! as re"els regain
ground#
Asia and Pacific: $nited %tates to consider li!ited refugee progra!!e in &entral
'!erica a!id i!!igration e!ergency#
Americas: Joko (idodo officially declared winner of )ndonesia*s presidential
election#
Europe: +uropean $nion scales up econo!ic sanctions against ,ussia#
Middle East: )nternational efforts to secure ceasefire "etween )srael and a!as
continue as death toll tops 1-000#
Polar regions: +$ energy co!!issioner warns of potential sanction on ,ussian
'rctic de.elop!ents#
'frica
Nigerian president renews pledge to fight Boko aram as rebels regain ground
On 21 July- Boko ara! conducted a raid on a Nigerian ar!ed forces "ase in the
town of /a!"oa- the site of the !ilitant group*s head0uarters prior to last year*s
Nigerian !ilitary offensi.e# 1he insurgent operation resulted in an esti!ated 42
casualties and caused the displace!ent of an additional 12-000 people- raising the
total of displaced persons to appro3i!ately 220-000# 1he recent fighting in the
/a!"oa area has also resulted in significant da!age to critical infrastructure-
leading to a sustained disruption of the electrical supply to Borno %tate*s capital
city- 4aiduguri#
Boko ara! re"els fighting for an )sla!ic state in Nigeria continue to challenge the
go.ern!ent- which is acting under a state of e!ergency !andate in affected
regions# 5ollowing a !ilitary operation last year intended to disrupt the operational
capacity of the group- Boko ara! now predo!inantly operate fro! the
!ountainous "order regions near &a!eroon# owe.er- the recent withdrawal of
go.ern!ent troops fro! the /a!"oa area of Borno %tate has generated a power
.acuu!- allowing insurgents to return freely to the town of /a!"oa and its si3
neigh"ouring .illages- and the organisation are now in de facto control of
appro3i!ately half of Borno %tate# 1hese de.elop!ents represent a nota"le step
"ackwards in the ca!paign to !itigate the insurgent acti.ities of Boko ara!#
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(hile the go.ern!ent appears to ha.e te!porarily lost ground in the northeastern region of Nigeria-
official spokespeople for President 6oodluck Jonathan continue to pu"licly deny the re"el ad.ances# 1he
Nigerian security ser.ices7 shortco!ings in addressing the threat fro! Boko ara! ha.e caused Jonathan
to seek 81 "illion in e3ternal loans to i!pro.e !ilitary capa"ilities- in con9unction with calls for
international assistance to counter the insurgent group# owe.er- the lack of tangi"le results produced "y
current security strategies is resulting in !ounting pu"lic discontent towards the Nigerian go.ern!ent-
and it appears increasingly likely that Boko ara! will continue to !ake progress towards desta"ilising
'frica7s largest econo!y should the current security policy re!ain unaltered#
"ther de#elopments
Air Algerie flight A$%1& crashed in Mali on !' (uly en route from "uagadougou) Burkina *aso) to
Algiers+ %earch tea!s found the wreckage of the plane- which was carrying 11: passengers- near to the
4alian .illage of Boulikessi- around 20 kilo!etres fro! the "order of Burkina 5aso# 5rance- which has "een
!ilitarily engaged in 4ali since 201;- dispatched a !ilitary unit to secure the site and conduct
in.estigations# (hile scattered re"el groups in northern 4ali continue their fight against the go.ern!ent
in Ba!ako- 5rench officials ha.e so far stressed that it was unlikely that re"el fighters in 4ali controlled
weaponry capa"le of shooting down a co!!ercial airliner- and that the crash is !ore likely to ha.e
occurred due to weather conditions#
,lashes intensified in Bengha-i on !. (uly) with do-ens killed and wounded as go#ernment forces)
utilising aircraft and ground troops) tried to oust militants in /ibya0s eastern port city+ 1he situation in
1ripoli has si!ilarly intensified o.er the past week- with shelling on 24 July# 1he latest .iolence- which
"egan 10 days ago- has already resulted in !ore than 20 deaths as post<re.olution =i"ya continues to
struggle with political frag!entation "etween a fledgling go.ern!ent and a !ultitude of !ilitant
organisations# /espite a recent deal to end the re"el "lockade of the Brega oil port- no progress has "een
!ade on the reopening# 1he latest clashes ha.e disrupted production at i!portant oil fields- including +l<
5eel#
"n !! (uly) opposing sides in the conflict in the ,entral African 1epublic 2,A13 signed a ceasefire to
end months of sectarian fighting+ 5ollowing increasing pressure fro! regional !ediators-
representati.es of the !a9ority 4usli! %>l>ka re"els signed a ceasefire agree!ent with se.eral &hristian
factions in Bra??a.ille- the capital of the ,epu"lic of &ongo# (ith the failure of pre.ious ceasefire
atte!pts- the co!ing days will "e critical in assessing the credi"ility of the ceasefire agree!ent# (ith the
transitional go.ern!ent currently tasked with arranging elections for ne3t year- reconciliation will "e a
key co!ponent to the peace process# (ith a large part of the 4usli! population ha.ing "een dri.en out
of the capital- Bangui- and the western region towards the %>l>ka<controlled east- the country is
effecti.ely in a state of partition#

Open Briefing | .
"n the radar
eightened security and police cordons in 4abon 5ari) 6ano) Nigeria) after an unidentified
attacker launched an e3plosi.e de.ice at a church on 2@ July- killing at least fi.e people and
in9uring at least eight !ore#
Negotiators from 4outh 4udan remain in Ethiopia waiting for the rebel side0s delegation to
start a new round of peace negotiations- which are currently stalling#
,ameroon is warning of an increased risk from Boko aram raids spilling o#er from Nigeria
into its re!ote northern region#
The 7N office in Burundi 2BN7B3 is due to present its report to the 7N 4ecurity ,ouncil on ;1
July#
African delegations are preparing for the 748Africa summit) which begins in early August#
'!ericas
7nited 4tates to consider limited refugee programme in ,entral America amid immigration
emergency
5ollowing a !eeting with the leaders of onduras- 6uate!ala and +l %al.ador on 22 July- $% President
Barack O"a!a e3pressed his interest in the creation of a li!ited refugee progra!!e in &entral '!erica#
4igration "etween these countries is not new- and has long "een a pro!inent issue on the !ultilateral
agenda# owe.er- the recent spike in the nu!"er of !inors atte!pting to illegally cross the $% "order
has pro!pted a !a9or in0uiry regarding recurring $% i!!igration e!ergencies# )t is esti!ated that A0-000
9u.enile !igrants will ha.e crossed the $% "order "y the end of the current fiscal year in Octo"er- with as
!any as 4@-000 nationals fro! 4e3ico and &entral '!erica deported fro! the $nited %tates in 201;
alone# ' refugee progra!!e in &entral '!erica would ena"le foreign citi?ens to apply for $% refugee
status in their country of residencyB until now- i!!igrants fro! &entral '!erica and 4e3ico had to cross
the $% "order "efore "eing a"le to apply for asylu! status# )n the past- the $nited %tates has set up
refugee progra!!es in aiti- Cietna! and the for!er %o.iet $nion- "ut a progra!!e in &entral '!erica
would "e the first of its kind for a country that is a"le to reach the $nited %tates "y land# )n addition- the
O"a!a ad!inistration has re0uested a special "udget of 82 "illion to address the crisis of 9u.enile
!igrants who are crossing the $% "order#
1he inflow of 9u.enile illegal i!!igrants fro! &entral '!erica and 4e3ico to the $nited %tates has
steadily increased o.er recent years# %trong !edia co.erage of the recent i!!igration e!ergency has
drawn the attention of the $% president away fro! issues in +urope and the 4iddle +ast and "ack to =atin
'!erica# )n contrast with the consistent inflow of adult !igrants to the $nited %tates- child !igrants
represent a new trend that has e!erged against the "ackdrop of rising le.els of po.erty and cri!e in
&entral '!erica# )n this regard- onduras is the region*s poorest country- and also the !ost dangerous#
1he de.elop!ent of drug cartels in the region o.er the past decade has greatly eroded pu"lic institutions
and the rule of law- pro!pting large nu!"ers of fa!ilies and children to seek refuge in the $nited %tates#

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O"a!a has referred to the latest i!!igration e!ergency as a Dhu!anitarian crisis* that re0uires a
co!prehensi.e solution enco!passing political as well as econo!ic !easures# But the refugee
progra!!e faces strong criticis! at ho!e fro! the ,epu"lican Party- which fears !ore la3 i!!igration
restrictions and instead de!ands stronger "order controls and !ore syste!ic deportations# 1he $%
ad!inistration is currently considering the esta"lish!ent of a pilot pro9ect for refugee application in
onduras- which if esta"lished- could "e e3panded to 6uate!ala and +l %al.ador# )n the !eanti!e- o.er
42-000 children will "e deported "ack to their respecti.e countries# 5urther!ore- the go.ern!ent of 1e3as
has co!!itted 1-000 e3tra National 6uard troops to its "order with 4e3ico in order to curtail !igration
inflows#
"ther de#elopments
"n !9 (uly) :ene-uelan President Nicol;s Maduro was elected as the successor of ugo ,h;#e- to
lead the 7nited 4ocialist Party of :ene-uela 2P47:3+ 1his was the first resolution to "e adopted "y the
2;@ P%$C delegates at the party*s third national congress- the first of its kind in the 4aduro era# )n his
inaugural speech to the congress- the Cene?uelan president openly criticised the radical factions of the
party for sowing dissent# 1he P%$C third national congress will end on 2A July#
<n a public conference) ,osta 1ican President /uis 5uillermo 4ol=s welcomed the ,hinese sponsored
canal pro>ect in Nicaragua+ 1he announce!ent ca!e after the &osta ,ican authorities re0uested an in<
depth study of the en.iron!ental i!pact caused "y the construction of the canal "y its neigh"our
Nicaragua# Nicaragua plans to 9oin the Pacific Ocean and the &ari""ean %ea with a canal of o.er 2@; !iles#
1he pro9ect- which will "e run "y a &hinese co!pany- includes two ports and an airport- a!ong other
infrastructure- with the total cost of construction esti!ated at 840 "illion#
Bra-il is seeking to bolster regional solidarity by connecting /atin America?s two largest trading
blocs+ 1he Bra?ilian go.ern!ent proposed a trade agree!ent "etween the Pacific 'lliance and 4ercosur
days ahead of the ne3t 4ercosur su!!it- which is to "e held on 2A July in Cene?uela*s capital- &aracas#
+sta"lished in 2012- the Pacific 'lliance- co!posed of &hile- &olo!"ia- 4e3ico and Peru- represents a
geopolitical alternati.e to the 4ercosur grouping consisting of 'rgentina- Bra?il- Paraguay- $ruguay and
Cene?uela# 1he esta"lish!ent of a trade agree!ent "etween the two "locs could pa.e the way for further
political and econo!ic cooperation#
"n the radar
,olombian President (uan Manuel 4antos is to meet with his :ene-uelan counterpart) Nicol;s
Maduro) on 1 'ugust#
@isruption to Argentina?s shipping and cargo sectors should be anticipated on !A (uly due to a
proposed 12<hour strike "y workers affiliated to 5e!pinra o.er pay ta3es#
Tra#ellers flying to the 7nited 4tates should eBpect increased security measures to continue
following the go.ern!ent*s warning of a credi"le terrorist threat to a.iation#
Airport customs staff in Argentina are set to protest from .1 (uly to 1 August in de!and of
increased wages#

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'sia and Pacific
(oko Cidodo officially declared winner of <ndonesia?s presidential election
On 22 July- the )ndonesian 6eneral +lections &o!!ission declared Joko (idodo the winner of the
presidential election# (idodo gained 2;E of the .ote- representing 8#4 !illion !ore .otes than his ri.al-
Pra"owo %u"ianto# (idodo and his running !ate- Jusuf Falla- are due to "e sworn in on 20 Octo"er 2014#
1hey will ser.e a fi.e<year ter!# Prior to the release of the final results- "oth candidates had clai!ed
.ictory in the election# 1he election was held on A July and followed parlia!entary elections on A 'pril
2014# (idodo is the for!er go.ernor of Jakarta and fro! !odest origins- while %u"ianto is fro! an elite
"ackground and is a for!er general associated with the %uharto ad!inistration#
/espite the release of the official results- %u"ianto has co!!itted to challenging the co!!ission*s
decision# =ast week- he filed a legal challenge with the county*s constitutional court- citing .oting
irregularities and possi"le fraud# Prior to the official release- he had urged the 6eneral +lections
&o!!ission to delay the release of the results until a full in.estigation had taken place# is concerns were
raised as )ndonesian authorities reported irregularities in +ast Ja.a- (est Ja.a and fro! o.erseas in
4alaysia# Ongoing in.estigations "y the )ndonesian +lection 4onitoring Body and local law enforce!ent
led to the sacking of at least 10 election co!!ittee workers and the issue of !ore than 40 official
warnings to those suspect of illegal .ote ta!pering# %u"ianto clai!s to ha.e su"!itted e.idence of
election fraud fro! o.er 22-000 polling stations across the country#
Ne.ertheless- gi.en the large !argin "y which (idodo was elected- e3perts "elie.e that it is unlikely that-
e.en after a thorough in.estigation- the final results of the election will change# 5ollowing the
announce!ent of the (idodo*s .ictory- !inority parties ha.e "egun indicating that they will likely !o.e
into coalition with (idodo*s party# 'ccording to )ndonesian electoral laws- a party !ust win at least 22E
of the popular .ote in legislati.e elections to no!inate a presidential candidate# )n last !onth*s legislati.e
polls- no party earned the re0uisite 22E- and thus two coalitions for!ed# Nota"ly- the senior leadership of
the 6olkar party- which had for!erly supported %u"ianto- e3pressed plans to change their party*s
direction towards support of the go.ern!ent# Ne.ertheless- in a country where political coalitions are
co!!only weak- )ndonesia*s new president will need to find a way to !aintain political !o!entu! o.er
the co!ing fi.e years#
"ther de#elopments
:ietnam has condemned ,hina?s dredging pro>ect in the 4outh ,hina 4ea+ On 22 July- Cietna!ese
foreign affairs !inistry spokesperson =e ai Binh clai!ed that &hina*s acti.ities near /ru!!ond )sland-
part of the Paracel )slands- are illegal and in.alid# ,ecently- &hina has "egun dredging channels near the
archipelago to i!pro.e access for supply "oats and fishing .essels# 1he state!ent "y the Cietna!ese
spokes!an is not surprising- and follows se.eral !onths of tense "ilateral relations# )n 4ay 2014- anti<
&hinese riots "roke out in Cietna!- leading to the deaths of se.eral &hinese nationals# 1he riots followed
the place!ent of an oil rig in disputed waters in the %outh &hina %ea# 1wo weeks ago- &hina re!o.ed the
rig fro! the disputed waters "ut indicated that the .essel*s e3ploration acti.ities were successful- and
suggested that acti.ities relating to natural resource are likely to continue in the area#

Open Briefing | 9
A car bomb that detonated in southern Thailand killed two and wounded more than .% others+ 1he
incident occurred on 22 July in the southern region of 1hailand in the Betong district of Gala# Gala is widely
considered one of the safest cities in southern 1hailand# 1he last !a9or attack in Gala occurred in 200:
when insurgents "o!"ed 22 "anks at the sa!e ti!e# )n addition to the attack on 22 July in Gala- two other
attacks also occurred in Pattani and Narathiwat# )n Narathiwat- alleged insurgents detonated a roadside
"o!" killing one ar!y para!ilitary ranger and wounding three others# 1he attack targeted a s0uad of
twel.e para!ilitary rangers on foot patrol#
,hina?s 4upreme People?s Procuratorate has begun establishing a task force to identify corruption
among ,hinese officials who ha#e fled o#erseas+ Hu Jinhui- director of the %upre!e People*s
Procuratorate*s anti<corruption depart!ent- announced on 22 July that the purpose of the co!!ittee
would "e to confiscate the illegal gains that corrupt officials ha.e transferred o.erseas# 1he esta"lish!ent
of the task force follows the capture of !ore than ;20 fugiti.es since January 2014# )n his speech- Hu
noted that the &hinese go.ern!ent intends to cooperate with the $nited %tates and &anada on
intelligence sharing- in.estigation and e3tradition# &urrently- &hina has signed !ore than 100 "ilateral
9udicial cooperation agree!ents with A8 countries and regions# )n addition- &hina has also "egun
strengthening security at "order areas in Gunnan and eilong9iang pro.inces# 1he creation of the task
force is the latest de.elop!ent in a year<long anti<corruption push that has per!eated all le.els of
&hinese politics#
"n the radar
,hina?s People?s /iberation Army will conduct li#e8fire drills along the country?s eastern coast
"eginning on 2A July#
(apanese Prime Minister 4hin-D Abe will #isit MeBico) Trinidad and Tobago) ,olombia) ,hile
and Bra-il in an 11<day tour of =atin '!erica this week#
Pope *rancis will tra#el to 4outh 6orea on 14<18 'ugust- on the occasion of 'sia Gouth /ay#
Employees of Biman Bangladesh Airlines threaten to strike on 9 August o.er .arious
grie.ances- including a de!and for free !edical "enefits#
<ndian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will tra#el to the 7nited 4tates on an official state #isit
in %epte!"er#

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+urope
European 7nion scales up economic sanctions against 1ussia
On 22 July- +uropean foreign !inisters agreed that the +uropean &o!!ission and the "loc7s e3ternal
affairs ar! should finalise work on tougher econo!ic !easures targeting specific sectors of the ,ussian
econo!y# )n a !ore i!!ediate response to ,ussia*s recent i!plication in e.ents in eastern $kraine- the
+uropean $nion e3panded its "lacklist of indi.iduals su"9ect to sanction on 22 July- targeting an additional
12 indi.iduals and 18 entities# 1hese latest sanctions target the ,ussian intelligence ser.ice and the self<
proclai!ed independent $krainian repu"lics and their leaders in eastern $kraine# 1he new indi.iduals
added to the list include 4ikhail /radko.- director of the ,ussian 5oreign )ntelligence %er.ice I%C,JB
'le3andr Bortniko.- director of the 5ederal %ecurity %er.ice I5%BJB ,a!?an Fadyro.- president of the
,epu"lic of &hechnyaB and the leaders of the self<proclai!ed /onetsk People*s ,epu"lic# +uropean
a!"assadors also agreed to sanction !e!"ers of ,ussian President Cladi!ir Putin*s closer circle of
supporters at a !eeting in Brussels on 24 July# 1hese indi.iduals will "e for!ally identified on 28 July#
1he hardening of sanctions is a reaction to the downing of 4alaysian 'irlines 5light 41@ in eastern
$kraine K an area held "y pro<,ussian separatists# Before the downing of the airliner- +$ !e!"ers had
struggled to achie.e a cohesi.e position on ,ussia following the anne3ation of &ri!ea in 4arch- a!id the
ongoing territorial struggle "etween pro<,ussian re"els and the $krainian authorities in eastern $kraine#
owe.er- in the after!ath of the 41@ crash- the +uropean $nion has "eco!e !ore cohesi.e in response
to ,ussia*s alleged role in ar!ing pro<,ussian separatists in the region- and for ,ussia*s failure to facilitate
a ro"ust in.estigation into the crash# )n this regard- pro<,ussian re"els are "elie.ed to "e in.ol.ed in
ta!pering with e.idence- and the continued engage!ent of these groups has hindered the efforts of
international tea!s to retrie.e the "odies of crash .icti!s# 1hese sanctions "y the +uropean $nion will
co!ple!ent sanctions that the $nited %tates announced two days "efore the downing of the aircraft#
owe.er- last week ,ussia reacted to the sanctions "y toughening its econo!ic !easures against $kraine
"y "anning dairy i!ports# 'nalysts ha.e also warned that these latest sanctions !ay "e creating a rift
"etween ,ussia and the (est that could "e hard to re.erse#
1his week- the +uropean $nion is e3pected to announce further econo!ic sanctions should re"els in
eastern $kraine continue to o"struct an in.estigation into the crash of 41@- and further- should the
Fre!lin fail to stop the flow of ar!s to the separatists across the "order# 1hese sanctions would pre.ent
,ussian "usinesses fro! accessing +$ capital !arkets- as well as defence and energy technologies# One
suggested sanction is a prohi"ition on the raising of capital on +uropean !arkets "y ,ussian "anks with
!ore than 20E state ownership# )n 201;- al!ost half the "onds issued "y ,ussian pu"lic financial
institutions were sold on +uropean !arkets# 1hese sanctions are widely e3pected to "oost ,ussia*s
"orrowing costs and under!ine pu"lic finances# 'nother possi"le sanction is an ar!s trade e!"argo
targeting ,ussia*s entire defence sectorB although 5rance will continue to deli.er one of two 4istral
helicopter carriers for ,ussia under a contract agree!ent dated fro! 2001# )t is highly likely that the
increasing segregation of ,ussia fro! (estern !arkets will generate deep long<ter! political di.isions
"etween the ,ussian 5ederation and the (est- which are likely to i!pact a plethora of !ultilateral
initiati.es currently on the glo"al political agenda#

Open Briefing | E
"ther de#elopments
Arseniy Fatsenyuk resigned as the 7krainian prime minister on !' (uly+ Gatsenyuk cited the dissolution
of the parlia!entary coalition and the "locking of go.ern!ent initiati.es as the reasons for his
resignation# =ast week- se.eral parties withdrew fro! the !a9ority +uropean &hoice coalition- including
the pro<+uropean $krainian /e!ocratic 'lliance for ,efor! I$/',J party and the 5atherland 6roup# 1he
parlia!entary speaker- Oleksandr 1urchyno.- announced the for!al dissolution of the coalition
go.ern!ent- and President Petro Poroshenko now has the power to announced fresh parlia!entary
elections within the ne3t !onth# On 22 July- the $krainian ca"inet appointed /eputy Pri!e 4inister
Colody!yr 6roys!an as acting pri!e !inister#
"n !! (uly) Turkish prosecutors arrested 9& policemen and do-ens of senior police officers on
suspicion of espionage and illegal wire8tapping+ 'uthorities accuse the officers of illegally
ea.esdropping on top officials- including Pri!e 4inister ,ecep 1ayyip +rdoLan- as well as forging official
docu!ents- fa"ricating e.idence and .iolating the secrecy of an in.estigation# 1he pu"lic prosecutor*s
office announced that 112 arrest warrants had "een issued for these offences# )n an early !orning
operation- police detained officers in raids in )stan"ul- 'nkara- )?!ir and /iyar"akir# 1hose detained
include O!er Fose and Gurt 'tayun- the two for!er heads of )stan"ul*s anti<terror unit#
"n !$ (uly) two anti8Putin acti#ists) 4ergei 7daltso# and /eonid 1a-#o--haye#) were found guilty of
coordinating protests) which later turned #iolent) on the e#e of President :ladimir Putin?s
inauguration for his third presidential term on & May !%1!+ 1he 4oscow court handed "oth $daltso.
and ,a?.o??haye. 4#2<year prison sentences- though prosecutors had sought eight years# 1he indi.iduals
were pro!inent protest leaders during the parlia!entary and presidential elections fro! 2011<12# 1he
two acti.ists deny the charges- and their lawyers announced that an appeal would "e lodged at the
+uropean &ourt of u!an ,ights#
"n the radar
Turkey to hold presidential elections on 10 'ugust#
Norway remains on high alert o.er a threat of an i!!inent terrorist attack in the country#
"n 9 August) Bulgarian President 1osen Ple#nelie# will dissol#e the National Assembly) after
the Bulgarian parlia!ent appro.ed the resignation of the Bulgarian %ocialist Party ca"inet#
*urther Pro8Palestine protests are likely in Paris) *rance) and elsewhere this week+
4iddle +ast
<nternational efforts to secure ceasefire between <srael and amas continue as death toll tops 1)%%%
' 12<hour hu!anitarian truce "etween )srael and a!as "egan on 08M00 local ti!e on 2: July# 1he )sraeli
ca"inet !et on 2: July and accepted a $N re0uest for a 24<hour e3tensionB howe.er- this collapsed in the
early hours of 2@ July# 1he hu!anitarian 7pause7 of the conflict was ai!ed at the relief of Palestinian
ci.ilians- ena"ling the! to return to their ho!es for supplies and to e3tract the "odies of those killed in
shelling# 4oreo.er- the truce ena"led international 9ournalists to safely enter so!e areas of 6a?a for the
first ti!e since Operation Protecti.e +dge "egan on 8 July# 4any reports ha.e highlighted the !ass
destruction of "order towns- with !any areas reduced to ru""le#
Open Briefing | A
$% %ecretary of %tate John Ferry led talks in Paris- 5rance- on 2: July- which atte!pted to secure ter!s for
a per!anent ceasefire agree!ent# )srael- a!as and the Palestinian 'uthority were a"sent fro! the talks-
which included representati.es fro! the $nited %tates- 1urkey- Natar and the +$# +ach party is seeking
resolution for the crises as the death toll continues to rise- reaching 1-0;4 Palestinian casualties- 4;
!e!"ers of the )srael /efence 5orce I)/5J and three )sraeli ci.ilians to date# 5rench foreign !inister
=aurent 5a"ius stated in the !eetings final press conference that the international co!!unity would
continue to push for an o"taina"le ceasefire "etween the two parties- negotiating ter!s that would !eet
the security de!ands of )srael- while ensuring the socioecono!ic de.elop!ent of 6a?a#
owe.er- difficulties are likely to re!ain in finding an accepta"le resolution# /espite the agreed
e3tension- the )/5 i!plicitly stated they would continue to search for a!as tunnels- and would react to
any percei.ed aggression fro! a!as during the truce# a!as later re9ected the ter!s of the truce
e3tension- stating it failed to !eet their de!ands of ending the siege on 6a?a and re!o.ing )/5 troops
fro! Palestinian territories# 's such- each side appears set to continue the deadlock- !eaning that
negotiations for anything "eyond te!porary ceasefires are likely to "e difficult until either )srael decides
Operation Protecti.e +dge has ser.ed its purpose or international opinion "eco!es too hostile to !ake it
worth continuing#
"ther de#elopments
The <slamic 4tate of <raG and the /e#ant 2<4<43 destroyed a symbolic tomb in <raG0s second largest
city) Mosul) on !' (uly+ 1he Na"i Gunus shrine- "elie.ed to "e the "urial site of the prophet Gunus or
"i"lical Jonah- was rigged with e3plosi.es and destroyed in front of crowd of people# 1he shrine- a sy!"ol
of &hristian and %hi7ite worship- was the latest of 42 cultural sy!"ols to "e destroyed "y )%)% following
territorial gains in the )ra0*s northern pro.inces# 'lthough no one was in9ured in the attack- it is likely to
send a powerful !essage to )ra07s &hristian and %hi7ite co!!unities dee!ed to "e in opposition to )%)%7s
%alafist interpretation of %unni )sla!# 1he 7)sla!ification7 and i!position of a"solutist ideology is likely to
continue in )%)%<controlled territories in the following weeks#
The <slamic 4tate of <raG and the /e#ant 2<4<43 o#erran a military base in 1aGGa) northern 4yria) killing
$% people on !$ (uly+ 'lthough unconfir!ed "y %yrian authorities- reports indicate that at least 20
soldiers were killed in the attack- !any of who! were "eheaded# Northern %yria re!ains a stronghold for
)%)% which now controls !ost of the pro.ince- and the ,a00a "ase- the largest in northeast %yria- is a
nota"ly strategic gain for the group# Ciolence has continued to escalate throughout the country following
the re<election of President Bashar al<'ssad on 1: July# 1he escalation of .iolence suggests a stark
intensification of the country7s ci.il war- with increasingly di.isi.e internal factions struggling to co!pete
for political support and territorial control#
Two security officials were killed in Egypt?s 4inai pro#ince on !$ (uly+ 1he officers were shot dead "y
unidentified assailants# 1he attack ca!e after the arrest of 12 indi.iduals and the death of two !ilitants in
'rish- northern %inai- on 24 July# %inai re!ains the fore!ost source of do!estic insecurity within +gypt-
with !any 9ihadist groups using its desert regions to launch attacks against go.ern!ent security forces#
+gyptian President '"del 5attah el<%isi faces significant challenges in containing the !ilitant threat within
+gypt- as well as a state of e!ergency along the %udanese "order- increased pressures fro! the =i"yan
western "order areas and the )sraeli<Palestinian crisis to the east#
Open Briefing | 1%
"n the radar
Eid Al8*itr to be celebrated marking the end of 1amadan on 28 July#
1e8trial of !9A Egyptian acti#ists to begin on ' August+ 'll defendants stand accused of
attacking the central ca"inet "uilding and security forces in No.e!"er 2011#
<raGi parliament to meet on $ August to discuss prime ministerial election+
,lashes likely in the lead8up to Afghanistan?s <ndependence @ay on 1A 'ugust
Polar ,egions
E7 energy commissioner warns of potential sanction on 1ussian Arctic de#elopments
On 2; July- the +$ energy co!!issioner 6Onther Oettinger stated that the +uropean $nion should not
pro.ide ,ussia with technical assistance to de.elop 'rctic oil and gas fields should 4oscow continue to
pro.e reluctant to facilitate i!pro.e!ents in the current situation in eastern $kraine# +$ !inisters last
week raised the possi"ility of restricting ,ussia*s access to oil and gas technologies and critical e0uip!ent
for oil and gas operations# %uch restrictions could "e e3tended to include tight control of fracking
technology and restrictions on +$ financing for ,ussian energy pro9ects in the region#
Oettinger*s state!ent was gi.en against the "ackdrop of an assertion "y 6er!an &hancellor 'ngela
4erkel that it was ti!e for +urope to i!ple!ent new sanctions against the ,ussian 5ederation# Pre.iously-
the +$ had not e3pressed any specific intentions to target ,ussia*s physical energy suppliesB howe.er-
Oettinger*s suggestions appear to affir! the position that the +$ will ha.e no reason to assist in the
growth of ,ussia*s 'rtic energy infrastructure should a change in ,ussian foreign policy not "e o"ser.ed#
,ussia places great .alue on the potential for offshore oil and gas pro9ects in the 'rctic- "ut can only
pursue the region*s energy resources with the assistance pro.ided "y +$ countries* !ore technologically<
ad.anced oil and gas industries#
%uch a sanction on ,ussia7s 'rctic oil and gas de.elop!ents would undou"tedly ha.e a nota"le negati.e
i!pact on No.atek- ,ussia7s largest independent natural gas producer and the !ain de.eloper of li0uefied
natural gas e3port in the 'rctic Ga!al peninsula- which has already seen one of its shareholders hit "y
sanctions i!posed "y the $nited %tates a!id ,ussia*s anne3ation of &ri!ea# owe.er- the proposed
sanction will likely "e difficult to i!pose due to the foreseea"le i!pact upon +$ !e!"er states that are
hea.ily reliant on ,ussian gas supplies# 1o date- issues of 'rctic de.elop!ent ha.e re!ained
co!parati.ely cooperati.eB howe.er- should Oettinger*s proposed sanctions gain any traction- !ultilateral
efforts to e3plore this increasingly .alua"le region are likely to "e greatly i!peded in ser.ice of !ore
i!!ediate geopolitical concerns#
"ther de#elopments
,anada will make further in#estments in Pangnirtung arbour) Baffin <sland) throughout !%1'8!%1$+
1he proposed go.ern!ent in.est!ent of 810: !illion will "e used for construction- !aintenance- repair
and dredging pro9ects# 1he go.ern!ent has already in.ested o.er 840 !illion in the construction of
Pangnirtung*s har"our on Baffin )sland- located in the &anadian 1erritory- Nuna.ut- which took place
"etween 200A and 201;# 1he additional in.est!ent will address o.ercrowding within the har"our- whilst
ena"ling further access for inshore co!!ercial fishery and adding to Pangnirtung*s !ariti!e
transportation links with other co!!unities within the territory#
Open Briefing | 11
1ussian go#ernment8owned oil company 1osneft has pulled out of purchasing part of the natural gas
field in Point Thomson on Alaska0s North 4lope+ 1he co!pany decided against signing up to the pro9ect
with +33on 4o"il- proposed in 201; as part of an agree!ent to e3pand their colla"oration in the 'rctic#
,osneft is currently facing sanctions i!posed "y the $nited %tates that appear to "e li!iting the
co!pany*s a"ility to conduct "usiness outside of ,ussia# 1he 'laskan depart!ent of natural resources
co!!issioner- Joe Balash- also suggested that ,osneft- despite its in.estor status- would ha.e "een
su"9ected to an enhanced due diligence process- due to its position as a potential co!petitor- had it
agreed to the 9oint .enture#
"n the radar
A meeting of high8le#el representati#es of the Arctic states will take place $8& August in Naryan<
4ar- ,ussia#
Arctic ,ouncil ,onser#ation of Arctic *lora and *auna 2,A**3 working group will hold a board
meeting in Nuna#ut) ,anada) on 22<2A 'ugust#
The Alaska Arctic Policy ,ommission will hold its neBt meeting in Nome and 6ot-ebue) Alaska)
7nited 4tates) on 2:<2@ 'ugust#
<nternational ,onference and EBhibition on Performance of 4hips and 4tructures in <ce will be
held in Banff) ,anada) "etween 28<;1 July- and will address a nu!"er of topics- including na.al
architecture- ice"reaking ships- !arine operations safety- risk and en.iron!ental protection#

Published with intelligence support from
Bradburys Global Risk Partners | www+bradburys+co+uk

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Analysts: &hris '""ott- /erek &rystal- ,oger 4arshall- =aura art!ann- 1ancrPde 5euillade- 4atthew
&oulliard- &laudia (agner- %ophie 1aylor#