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Table 2.16. Historical supply of Ammonium Sulphate (From Foreign Trade Statistics of
the Philippines. (2004-2013)
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Graphical Representation
600000000
400000000
200000000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1.93485E+17
)
(
357,918,359.6
(
)
Projected Values
Table 2.18. Projected values for Ammonium Sulphate supply using ASLM
Year
A
Yc (A+Yi+1)
2014
42648246.56
2015
42648246.56
2016
42648246.56
2017
42648246.56
2018
42648246.56
2019
42648246.56
2020
42648246.56
2021
42648246.56
2022
42648246.56
2023
42648246.56
Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method
Formula:
471580915.6
514229162.1
556877408.7
599525655.2
642173901.8
684822148.3
727470394.9
770118641.4
812766888
855415134.6
Where:
Yi + 1 = value for the year ahead
X = average rate of increases
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
79.34928077
(
) (
)
(
Projected Values
Table 2.20 Projected values for Ammonium Sulphate Supply using AGCM
Year
Yi-1
Yc
2014
428,932,669
769287656.8
2015
769287656.8
1379711880
2016
1379711880
2474503333
2017
2474503333
4438003929
2018
4438003929
7959528128
2019
7959528128
14275356449
2020
14275356449
25602749119
2021
25602749119
45918346400
2022
45918346400
82354224008
2023
82354224008
1.47702E+11
Statistical Straight Line Method
Formula:
Where:
( )
2011
2012
2013
506504645
301409332
428932669
45098450
8
9
10
55
64
81
100
385
( )
) (
) ( )
2.56547E+17
2712683988
4289326690
2.56547E+17
)(
-1.71031E+16
3.10966E+15
-1.39935E+16
13,993,469,992,447,600
1.95817E+32
-1.71031E+16
3.10966E+15
-1.08838E+16
10,883,810,214,376,000
1.18457E+32
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
-7.77415E+15
-4.66449E+15
7,774,150,083,264,220
4,664,489,970,698,970
6.04374E+31
2.17575E+31
-1.71031E+16
3.10966E+15
-1.55483E+15
1,554,829,885,016,050
2.4175E+30
-1.71031E+16
3.10966E+15
1.55483E+15
-1,554,830,019,156,870
2.4175E+30
-1.71031E+16
3.10966E+15
4.66449E+15
-4,664,490,047,703,170
2.17575E+31
-1.71031E+16
3.10966E+15
7.77415E+15
-7,774,149,883,848,650
6.04374E+31
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
1.08838E+16
1.39935E+16
-10,883,810,137,187,200
-13,993,470,057,907,000
1.18457E+32
1.95817E+32
(
Evaluation for Standard Deviation
)
(
Projected Values
(Y-Yc)2
)( )
7.97774E+32
Table 2.23 Projected values for Ammonium Sulphate supply using SSLM
Year
X
A
B
Yc (a+bX)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
-1.71031E+16
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
3.10966E+15
1.71031E+16
2.02128E+16
2.33225E+16
2.64321E+16
2.95418E+16
3.26514E+16
3.57611E+16
3.88708E+16
4.19804E+16
4.50901E+16
(
) ( )( )
( ) ( )
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2,697,452,823
(
(
)(
330
19338
5251050941
)( ) ( )(
( ) ( )
) (
)(
) (
( )(
)
91654194023
)
)
(
(
)
(
)(
(
)(
( )( )
) ( )
) (
))(
) (
)
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
141524863.8
163356040.5
187685560.8
214513424.7
243839632.2
275664183.4
309987078.2
346808316.6
386127898.6
427945824.2
(Y-Yc)2
9.29805E+15
2.30779E+16
1.99951E+15
2.15611E+15
1.28142E+16
9.1043E+11
2.42741E+14
2.55029E+16
7.17724E+15
9.73863E+11
8.22706E+16
(
28,682,852.02
Projected Values
Table 2.26 Projected values for the supply of Ammonium Sulphate using SPCM
Year
X
a
b
C
Yc (a+bX+cX2)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
259439614.9
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
15912275.58
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
312292.9527
472262093.5
519076706.4
568389662.9
620200963
674510606.8
731318594.1
790624925.1
852429599.7
916732618
983533979.8
Table 2.27 Summary of obtained results for standard deviation using each method
Arithmetic Straight Line Method
43,986,939.79
Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method
65,653,776.69
Statistical Straight Line Method
2,824,488,974,949,820.00
Statistical Parabolic Curve Method
28,682,845.63
Choosing Projected Demand
Table 2.28 Summary of Ammonium Sulphate demand using each method
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Arithmetic
Straight Line
Method
87,746,696.56
357,918,360.56
275,049,741.56
210,727,693.56
173,287,981.56
317,358,265.56
337,055,163.56
549,152,891.56
344,057,578.56
Arithmetic
Geometric
Curve Method
2,234,047.33
4,006,747.82
7,186,073.40
12,888,170.97
23,114,841.93
41,456,302.76
74,351,580.83
133,349,025.45
239,160,518.05
-
Statistical Parabolic
Curve Method
(13,993,469,947,349,100.00)
(10,883,809,899,105,900.00)
(7,774,149,850,862,730.00)
(4,664,489,802,619,520.00)
(1,554,829,754,376,320.00)
1,554,830,293,866,890.00
4,664,490,342,110,090.00
7,774,150,390,353,290.00
10,883,810,438,596,500.00
13,993,470,486,839,700.00
141,524,863.82
163,356,040.49
187,685,560.78
214,513,424.70
243,839,632.24
275,664,183.39
309,987,078.17
346,808,316.57
386,127,898.59
427,945,824.24
Historical Values
Mass
Historical Values
ASLM
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
AGCM
SSLM
SPCM
Year
Table 2.29 Summary of projected supply of Ammonium Sulphate using each method
Arithmetic
Arithmetic
Statistical Straight Line
Statistical
Straight Line
Geometric Curve
Parabolic Curve
471,580,915.56
769,287,656.82
17,103,130,535,082,900.00 472,262,093.50
514,229,162.11 1,379,711,879.52 20,212,790,583,326,100.00 519,076,706.38
556,877,408.67 2,474,503,332.54 23,322,450,631,569,300.00 568,389,662.89
599,525,655.22 4,438,003,929.42 26,432,110,679,812,500.00 620,200,963.02
642,173,901.78 7,959,528,127.74 29,541,770,728,055,700.00 674,510,606.77
684,822,148.33 14,275,356,449.40 32,651,430,776,298,900.00 731,318,594.14
727,470,394.89 25,602,749,118.65 35,761,090,824,542,100.00 790,624,925.13
770,118,641.44 45,918,346,400.37 38,870,750,872,785,300.00 852,429,599.74
812,766,888.00 82,354,224,008.26 41,980,410,921,028,500.00 916,732,617.97
855,415,134.56 147,701,708,438.44 45,090,070,969,271,700.00 983,533,979.83
50,000,000,000,000,000.00
Mass
40,000,000,000,000,000.00
30,000,000,000,000,000.00
20,000,000,000,000,000.00
10,000,000,000,000,000.00
2023
ASLM
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Year
ASLM
AGCM
SSLM
SPCM
Table 2.30 Projected Supply for the next ten (10) years using Statistical Parabolic Curve
Method
Year
SPCM
2014
472,262,093.50
2015
519,076,706.38
2016
568,389,662.89
2017
620,200,963.02
2018
674,510,606.77
2019
731,318,594.14
2020
790,624,925.13
2021
852,429,599.74
2022
916,732,617.97
2023
983,533,979.83
2019 2020
2021 2022
2023
Mass
500,000,000.00
400,000,000.00
300,000,000.00
Demand
200,000,000.00
Supply
100,000,000.00
0.00
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year
Figure 2.9 Graphical representation of difference of Historical Demand and Supply for
Ammonium Sulphate
Demand vs Supply
3,000,000,000.00
2,500,000,000.00
Mass
2,000,000,000.00
1,500,000,000.00
Demand
1,000,000,000.00
Supply
500,000,000.00
0.00
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year