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Moreno C., Espejo E.

Department of Mechanical and Mechatronics Engineering, National University of

Colombia

Abstract

Validation for failure mode identication in shafts for three inference en-

gines (rule based reasoning, fuzzy based reasoning and Bayesian based rea-

soning) was done with focus on the casuistics and results after their use in

failure cases from dierent industries in wich the systems were tested. Each

system was implemented using the same user interface and knowledge base,

with dierent frameworks and techniques as follows: rule based inference rea-

soning (prolog, C#), Mamdani-fuzzy based reasoning (C, MATLAB R ) and

Bayesian based reasoning with a variable elimination algorithm (C, MAT-

LAB R ).

The best performance was obtained using the Bayesian inference engine. The

conditional probabilities gives exibility when evidence is not listed, while the

fuzzy and classical IF-THEN systems depend on the rules in the inference

engine.

The process presented in this paper could be used for validation of any ex-

pert system or for comparison with other expert systems (inference engines)

when the knowledge base is the same.

Keywords: Failure analysis, expert system, rule based reasoning, fuzzy

based reasoning, Bayesian based reasoning.

1. Introduction

Presently it is common to nd dierent applications of experts systems

in several elds of knowledge, especially in medical diagnosis and other in-

dustrial applications using rule based reasoning [1, 2], fuzzy inference [3, 4,

5, 6, 7, 8] and Bayesian inference [9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15]. However, there

Preprint submitted to Engineering Failure Analysis April 27, 2014

is a paucity of literature that shows a comparison of dierent techniques of

expert systems using the same knowledge base and failure cases, in relation

to the human response for failure mode identication in machine elements.

In [16] a comparison between the Bayesian and classical systems for medical

diagnosis is presented.

There are dierent techniques for comparison between experts systems

response such, as index and ratios of agreement [17]. These techniques were

used successfully in previous papers such as [18].

By means of failure cases in shafts, rule based, fuzzy inference, and

Bayesian inference experts systems were tested and compared with the re-

sponse obtained from an expert human panel. The rule based expert sys-

tem was developed using a declarative programming language (prolog+logic

server), the fuzzy inference engine was developed using the fuzzy inference

system included in MATLAB R and the Bayesian inference system was de-

veloped using the variable elimination algorithm based on C and MATLAB

R .

This validation was performed using the same failure cases as follows:

sixteen cases for fracture, ten cases for wear, ten cases for corrosion and ten

cases for plastic deformation. The present paper presents the results of each

inference engine, using quantitative methodologies based on visual inspection

of failed shafts.

At the end of the analysis, the failure mode for each system was shown,

as well as its own fault tree analysis diagram (FTA), for corrective actions

according to the maintenance procedures.

2. Expert system structure and knowledge base

The structure of each expert system tested is shown in Figure 1. The

knowledge base was obtained from human expert knowledge; thus the non-

expert user entered the evidence based on their observations of the failed

shaft, and with the evidence the inference engine tried to nd the possible

failure mode, showing the result with the FTA. Using the failure mode result

and the FTA, the non expert user would be able to improve maintenance

2

procedures or operations, in order to avoid the same failure mode in the

future.

Figure 1: Basic structure used for each expert system

2.1. Fracture module

The knowledge base for the fracture module includes the following failure

modes: brittle fracture in bending (bfb), torsional brittle fracture (tbf), tor-

sional ductile fracture (tdf), bending fatigue fracture (b), torsional fatigue

fracture (t), torsional fatige fracture in splined shaft (tss), bending corro-

sion fatigue (bcf), torsional corrosion fatigue (tcf), stress corrosion cracking

under bending (sccub) and torsional stress corrosion cracking (tscc).

An example of a table of attributes for fractures is shown in Table 1,

where (M) means mandatory and (O) means optional symptom or evidence.

The non expert user selects the evidence according to his or her observations

of the failed shaft.

2.2. Wear, corrosion and plastic deformation module

The knowledge base for the wear module includes the following failure

modes: supercial fatigue (sf), abrasive wear (abw), adhesive wear (adw)

and fretting (fr). The corrosion module includes pitting corrosion (pc) and

uniform corrosion (uc). The plastic deformation module includes the follow-

ing failure modes: torsional plastic ow (tpf), bending plastic ow (bpf),

shell buckling under bending (sbub), shell buckling under torsion (sbut), and

damage in keyway or spline (dkws).

The attributes for wear, corrosion and plastic deformation are shown in

Table 2. The non expert user selects the evidence according to his or her

observations of the failed shaft.

3

Table 1: Attributes for fracture module that the non expert user identies for the failed shaft

Attributes bfb tbf tdf b t tss bcf tcf sccub tscc

Cross fracture M - M M - - M - M -

Granular appearance M M - - - - - - - -

Without plastic deformation O O - O O M - - - -

Diagonal fracture (45

) - M - - M - - M - M

Fibrous appearance - - M - - - - - - -

Plastic deformation in rotation way - - M - - - - - - -

Two zones (smooth and nal fracture) - - - M M M M M M M

Radial cracks with 45

at union - - - - - M - - - -

Beach marks - - - O O O O O O O

Radial marks O O - O O O O O O O

Corrosive environment in operation - - - - - - M M M M

Corrosion waste - - - - - - O O O O

Variable load in operation - - - - - - M M - -

Constant load in operation - - - - - - - - M M

Brittle fracture in bending (bfb), torsional brittle fracture (tbf), torsional ductile fracture (tdf),

bending fatigue fracture (b), torsional fatigue fracture (t), torsional fatige fracture in splined shaft

(tss), bending corrosion fatigue (bcf), torsional corrosion fatigue (tcf), stress corrosion cracking

under bending (sccub) and torsional stress corrosion cracking (tscc)

4

Table 2: Attributes for wear, corrosion and plastic deformation module that the non expert user identies for

the failed shaft

Attributes sf abw adw fr uc pc bpf tpf sbub sbut dkws

Surface modication M M M M M M - - - - -

Pitting evidence M - - - - - - - - - -

Supercial cracks O - - - - - - - - - -

Scratch in surface - M - - - - - - - - -

Metal transfering - - M - - - - - - - -

Heat or fusion evidence - - O - - - - - - - -

Reddish-brown oxide color - - O M - - - - - - -

Localized damage - - - M - - - - - - -

Corrosion waste - - - - M O - - - - -

Homogeneous damage - - - - M - - - - - -

Pitting concentrated damage - - - - - M - - - - -

Solid shaft - - - - - - M M - - -

Bending deformation - - - - - - M - - - -

Torsional deformation - - - - - - - M - - -

Thin wall hollow shaft - - - - - - - - M M -

Elliptical collapse - - - - - - - - M - -

Torsional collapse - - - - - - - - - M -

Keyway or spline deformation - - - - - - - - - - M

Supercial fatigue (sf), abrasive wear (abw), adhesive wear (adw) and fretting (fr), pitting corrosion

(pc), uniform corrosion (uc), bending plastic ow (bpf), torsional plastic ow (tpf), shell buckling

under bending (sbub), shell buckling under torsion (sbut) and damage in keyway or spline (dkws).

5

2.3. Inference process

The rule based inference engine is typically represented as IF-THEN rules

(modus ponens); for example IF all the evidence for a failure mode is iden-

tied THEN the failure mode is identied.

Fuzzy inference reasoning uses IF-THEN rules, but using fuzzy set theory

it is possible to map the inputs and outputs, using the Mamdani or Sugeno

systems. As an example the beach marks could be the following conditions:

absence, slight presence or evident.

Fuzzy inference can work with non exact information while information

or evidence in rule based reasoning must be dened exactly and correctly

(absent, evident).

Bayesian inference uses Bayesian rules to update the probability when

additional evidence is identied for a failure mode using conditional proba-

bility tables. For example, bending fatigue fracture has a 75% probability

when two zones (smooth and nal fracture) are identied as evidence, but if

there are additional beach marks on the surface this probability increases to

85%.

2.4. Development of the principle of operation of experts systems

As an example, in Figure 2, a failed pony rod with a 45

fracture is shown;

the fracture surface is shown in Figure 3.

In Figure 4, the rst part of the fracture module for the shaft used in all

the inference engines is shown. The non expert user must select the options

according to the failed piece, using the data for the failed pony rod in Figures

2 and 3.

The rst task is to identify which of the following gures or pictures describe

the fracture that one is analyzing and the fracture orientation (The non ex-

pert user selected fracture with 45

).

The second task is to identify the pattern of plastic deformation in the frac-

ture that one is analyzing (The non expert user selected without deforma-

tion).

6

Figure 2: Failed pony rod 1-1/8 .

Figure 3: Fracture surface.

7

Figure 4: Task one and two for the fracture module

In Figure 5, third task is to identify the kind of surface in the fracture

zone (the non expert user selected granular appearance); the fourth task is

to identify marks at the surface (the non expert user selected radial marks

without beach marks).

8

Figure 5: Fracture surface and mark tasks, tasks three and four

In Figure 6, the fth task is to identify if the piece was in a corrosive

environment (the non expert user selected I dont know). The sixth task

is to identify if there is corrosion waste in the fracture zone (the non expert

user selected No). And nally, the last task is to identify the load before

the failure (the non expert user selected variable load). The resulting failure

mode using the Bayesian inference was torsional brittle fracture (99%). The

fuzzy inference result was torsional brittle fracture.

The rule based inference engine had no response, due to the fact that the

rule for corrosive environment was not dened in the inference engine as I

dont know. For the rule based engine, that question has only two values

(corrosive environment, non corrosive environment).

9

Figure 6: Corrosion, nal tasks, and nal failure mode result

Each failure mode had a fault tree analysis diagram, as a tool for iden-

tifying the root cause of the failure mode identied. Whit this FTA, the

maintenance and operation department can improve their practices and pro-

cedures. An example of a fault tree analysis for brittle torsion fracture is

shown in Figure 7.

3. Validation

There are dierent techniques for expert system validation, but ratios and

indexes of agreement are frequently used.

One expert system exhibits better performance than another when:

1. The ratios of sensibility, specificity, and ROC are greater.

2. The index of agreement is higher.

3. The unweighted kappa index () and weighted kappa index

w

are

higher.

These indexes are presented in the next section.

3.1. Ratios of agreement

The ratios of agreement are based on a 2x2 matrix for each failure mode,

as shown in Table 3. Variables a, b, c and d show the relationship between

10

Figure 7: Example of fault tree analysis for torsional brittle fracture in shaft

11

the total number of concordances between the human experts and the ex-

pert system in the test. Variable D represents the presence of evidence or a

symptom, and (D) represents an absence of evidence in a failure case.

Variable a indicates the times in the test when the human expert identi-

ed a failure mode and the expert system did too, b is the number of times

when the human expert identied an absence of a failure mode and the ex-

pert system identied a presence, c is when the human expert identied a

presence of a failure mode and the expert system in the test showed an ab-

sence and d shows when the human expert identied an absence of a failure

mode and the expert system gave the same answer.

Using variables a, b, c and d and their relationships, it is possible to nd

the following ratios of agreement: Index of agreement (for ratios), sensibility,

specicity, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC).

Table 3: Contingency table for agreement ratio [17]

Human Expert Response

D D

Expert system for test

D a b a + b

D c d c + d

a + c b + d a + b + c + d

3.1.1. Index of agreement based on ratios

Represented by Iar, it is calculated as shown in Equation 1.

Iar =

a + d

a + b + c + d

(1)

3.1.2. Sensibility

Represented by S, it is calculated as shown in Equation 2.

S =

a

a + c

(2)

12

3.1.3. Specicity

Represented by E in this paper, it is calculated as shown in Equation 3.

E =

d

b + d

(3)

3.1.4. Receiver operating characteristic

Represented by ROC in this paper, it is calculated as shown in Equation

4.

ROC =

Sensibility+Especicity

2

(4)

3.2. Index of agreement

In the agreement strategy indexes, there are three dierent tools: the

index of agreement, (unweighted kappa index), and

w

(weighted kappa

index) [17]. Using contingency tables, it is possible to calculate the index of

agreement (Iap) as follows in Equation 5:

Iap =

k

i=1,j=1,i=j

n

ij

N

=

k

i=1,j=1,i=j

p

ij

(5)

In Equation 5, N is total number of cases, n

ij

is the total number of cases

at cell ij in the contingency table, and p

ij

is the principal diagonal in the

contingency table.

The unweighted kappa () is calculated as shown in Equation 6:

=

p

o

p

c

1 p

c

(6)

In Equation 6, p

o

is the proportion of observed agreement and p

c

is the

proportion of agreement due to causality as the sum of the margin propor-

tions of the principal diagonal on the contingeny table. p

c

is calculated as the

sum of the relative frequencies of row i and column j, as shown in Equation

7.

p

c

=

k

i=1,j=1,i=j

p

i

p

j

(7)

The weighted Kappa

w

index is calculated as follows using Equation 8.

13

w

= 1

k

i=1,j=1

v

ij

p

oij

k

i=1,j=1

v

ij

p

cij

(8)

In Equation 8, p

oij

is the agreement proportion observed for cell ij, p

cij

is the agreement due to causality for cell ij, and v

ij

is the weighted one

(punished) in cell ij.

3.3. Failure cases

To validate the result for each expert system, forty-six failure cases in

shafts were used, as follows:

Sixteen cases for fracture.

Ten cases for wear.

Ten cases for corrosion.

Ten cases for plastic deformation.

The cases were analyzed by a panel of four human experts in failure anal-

ysis and were then compared with the diagnosis response of each inference

system for failure mode identication. Table 4 shown the industry of origin

for the cases of failure.

Table 4: Industry source of failure cases

Industry (%)

Oil & gas 47.8

Industrial machinery 21.7

Automotive 10.9

Aeronautics 10.9

Mining 6.5

Food & beverage 2.2

Total 100

14

4. Experimental results

The results of the analysis of the fracture cases are shown in Table 5,

wear cases in Table 6, corrosion cases in Table 7, and plastic deformation in

Table 8. Each table shows the human expert response and the response for

each inference engine tested (rule based, fuzzy inference and Bayesian). On

the basis of these results, it is possible to nd the contingency table for each

failure mode.

Table 5: Results for fracture cases

Case/Expert Human Experts Rule based Fuzzy inference Bayesian inference

1 bfb No response bfb bfb

2 tbf No response tbf tbf

3 tbf No response tbf tbf

4 b bfb No response bfb

5 b b No response b

6 tbf tbf No response tbf

7 tdf No response tdf tdf

8 b No response b b

9 sccub sccub sccub sccub

10 b b No response b

11 bcf No response b bcf

12 tdf sccub sccub bfb

13 bfb No response No response bfb

14 bfb bfb No response bfb

15 tbf No response tbf tbf

16 b b No response b

Brittle fracture in bending (bfb), torsional brittle fracture (tbf), torsional ductile frac-

ture (tdf), bending fatigue fracture (b), torsional fatigue fracture (t), torsional fatigue

fracture in splined shaft (tss), bending corrosion fatigue (bcf), torsional corrosion fa-

tigue (tcf), stress corrosion cracking under bending (sccub) and torsional stress corrosion

cracking (tscc).

4.1. Results for indicators

Table 9 shows the indicators and ratios for all the modules as a response

of the rule based inference engine:

15

Table 6: Results for wear cases

Case/Expert Human Experts Rule based Fuzzy inference Bayesian inference

1 sf sf sf sf

2 abw No response abw abw

3 adw adw adw adw

4 sf sf sf sf

5 adw adw adw adw

6 fr fr fr fr

7 fr fr fr fr

8 adw adw adw adw

9 fr No response fr fr

10 fr No response fr fr

Supercial fatigue (sf), abrasive wear (abw), adhesive wear (adw), fretting (fr).

Table 7: Results for corrosion cases

Case/Expert Human Experts Rule based Fuzzy inference Bayesian inference

1 uc uc uc uc

2 pc pc pc pc

3 uc uc uc uc

4 pc pc pc pc

5 pc pc pc pc

6 pc pc pc pc

7 pc pc pc pc

8 pc pc pc pc

9 pc pc pc pc

10 pc pc pc pc

Pitting corrosion (pc), uniform corrosion (uc).

16

Table 8: Results for plastic ow cases

Case/Expert Human Experts Rule based Fuzzy inference Bayesian inference

1 tpf tpf tpf tpf

2 tpf No response tpf tpf

3 tpf No response tpf tpf

4 tpf tpf tpf tpf

5 bpf bpf bpf bpf

6 bpf bpf bpf bpf

7 sbub sbub sbub sbub

8 sbut sbut sbut sbut

9 dkws dkws dkws dkws

10 tpf No response tpf tpf

Torsional plastic ow (tpf), bending plastic ow (bpf), shell buckling under bending

(sbub), shell buckling under torsion (sbut) and damage in keyway or spline (dkws).

Table 9: Indicators and ratios for the rule based inference engine

Iap

w

Iar S E ROC

Fracture 0.375 0.301 0.154 0.875 0.364 0.976 0.670

Wear 0.700 0.620 0.647 0.925 0.750 0.913 0.831

Corrosion 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Plastic ow 0.700 0.639 0.558 0.940 0.880 1.000 0.940

Average 0.694 0.640 0.590 0.935 0.748 0.972 0.860

0.255 0.286 0.347 0.051 0.276 0.041 0.145

Iap (Index of agreement), (Unweighted kappa index),

w

(Weighted

Kappa index), Iar (Index of agreement ratio), S (Sensibility), E

(Specicity), ROC (Receiver operating characteristic), (Standard

deviation).

17

Table 10 shows the indicators and ratios for all the modules as a response

of the fuzzy inference engine.

Table 10: Indicators and ratios for the fuzzy inference engine

Iap

w

Iar S E ROC

Fracture 0.500 0.426 0.340 0.885 0.464 0.974 0.719

Wear 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Corrosion 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Plastic ow 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Average 0.875 0.857 0.835 0.971 0.866 0.993 0.930

0.250 0.287 0.330 0.057 0.268 0.013 0.141

Iap (Index of agreement), (Unweighted kappa index),

w

(Weighted

Kappa index), Iar (Index of agreement ratio), S (Sensibility), E

(Specicity), ROC (Receiver operating characteristic), (Standard

deviation).

Table 11 shows the indicators and ratios for all the modules as a response

of the Bayesian inference engine.

Table 11: Indicators and ratios for the Bayesian inference engine

Iap

w

Iar S E ROC

Fracture 0.875 0.841 0.837 0.958 0.883 0.974 0.929

Wear 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Corrosion 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Plastic ow 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

Average 0.969 0.960 0.959 0.990 0.971 0.994 0.982

0.063 0.080 0.082 0.021 0.058 0.013 0.036

Iap (Index of agreement), (Unweighted kappa index),

w

(Weighted

Kappa index), Iar (Index of agreement ratio), S (Sensibility), E

(Specicity), ROC (Receiver operating characteristic), (Standard

deviation).

Figure 8 shows a comparison of the indicators based on indexes of agree-

ment as Iap, and

w

for the three inference engines.

According to Figure 8, the index of agreement (Iap) showed that Bayesian

inference exhibited better performance (96.9 %), in comparison to fuzzy in-

18

Figure 8: Index agreement comparision

ference (87.5%) and the rule based inference engine (69.4%). Using the un-

weighted index and the weighted

w

index, the rule based inference engine

exhibited the worst performance, with 64% for and 59% for

w

. The fuzzy

inference engine obtained 85.7% for and 83.5% for

w

. Finally, the Bayesian

inference engine gave a result of 96% for and 95.9% for

w

.

Figure 9 shows a comparison of the indicators based on ratios of agreement

as S, E, and ROC obtained for the rule based, fuzzy inference, and Bayesian

inference engines.

19

Figure 9: Ratios of agreement comparison

The best sensibility (S) and specicity (E) performance was obtained with

the Bayesian inference engine, with S=97.1% and E=99.4%. The highest

value for the ROC (the relationship between the sensibility and specicity),

was for the Bayesian inference engine (98.2%), followed by the fuzzy inference

engine (93%) and the rule based engine(86%).

5. Discussion

The fracture module had the most complex system of relationships be-

tween evidence and failure modes. There are several failure modes with

similar evidence in their symptoms (e.g. beach marks, radial marks and two

zones of fracture). The experimental results showed that more relationships

increase the completeness in the expert system. It will be challenging to

identify all the dierences between the dierent failure modes.

Bayesian inference had the best indicators compared with fuzzy inference

and rule based reasoning. Bayesian inference is more exible due to the

fact that uses conditional probabilities to evaluate a failure mode between

0 100%, while fuzzy inference and rule based systems use if-then rules.

20

If an evidence (rule) is not listed in a failure mode, Bayesian inference

decreases the probability, but it is still possible at the end of the analysis to

identify the correct failure mode with a small similarity. In this case the if-

then systems (rule based and fuzzy) can not identify the failure mode unless

a new rule is added to the knowledge base. This condition gives an advantage

to Bayesian inference in complex failure cases such as fracture identication.

That fuzzy inference can accept non exact information that depends on

observations of the non expert user (beach mark identication as an example)

compares with the rule based system where it is necessary to dene all the

rules in order to solve the failure mode.

6. Conclusion

1. More relationships between the same evidence and multiple failure

modes increase the complexity of the diagnosis. Bayesian inference had the

best performance index compared with fuzzy and rule based systems.

2. Failure analysis is a non-deterministic procedure due to the dierent

interpretations and possibilities that a failure analyst could nd in a case.

Even though rule based reasoning (ROC 86%) has been applied with success

in previous papers, the use of other inference techniques such as fuzzy (ROC

93%) or Bayesian inference (ROC 98.2%) could improve the failure mode

identication process in organizations, for the complex diagnosis process.

3. The process of validation for an expert system presented in this paper

could be used as an example for quantitative validation of any expert system,

when the result is compared with human expert response.

4. According to results presented in this paper in the future, it will be

better to implement an expert system for failure mode identication based

on Bayesian inference.

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23

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