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President de la Rua Resigns amid deadly rioting and the collapse of his government. Argentina now appears increasingly likely to abandon its one-to-one currency peg with the dollar. Well-heeled lenders like The U.S. And the imf say they are in no mood to help.
President de la Rua Resigns amid deadly rioting and the collapse of his government. Argentina now appears increasingly likely to abandon its one-to-one currency peg with the dollar. Well-heeled lenders like The U.S. And the imf say they are in no mood to help.
President de la Rua Resigns amid deadly rioting and the collapse of his government. Argentina now appears increasingly likely to abandon its one-to-one currency peg with the dollar. Well-heeled lenders like The U.S. And the imf say they are in no mood to help.
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P1JW355009-5-A00900-1---XA ***** AZ,EE,FL,MW,NE,NY,PN,RM,SA,SC,S 2 2 6 4 3 6 2 12/21/2001 P 1 J W 3 5 5 0 0 9 - 5 - A 0 0 9 0 0 - 1 - - - X A President de la Ra Resigns, Unable to Quell Violence Fueled by Finance Crisis White House, IMFSay No to Argentina Aid By Michelle Wallin And Pamela Druckerman Staff Reporters of The Wall Street Journal BUENOS AIRESArgentine President Fernando de la Ra resigned amid deadly rioting and the collapse of his embattled government, in the grim denouement of a four-year-long struggle with recession, crushing debt and political paralysis. Buenos Aires now appears increasingly likely to abandon its one-to-one currency peg with the U.S. dollar and default on much of its $130 billion debt, economists said. Meantime, well-heeled lenders like the U.S. and the International Monetary Fund said they were in no mood to help, as Latin Americas third-largest economy now faces a pitched battle not only on the streets, but also with angry foreign bond- holders looking at stiff losses. The damage, however, appears to be limited largely to Argentines and those bondholders, many of whom have acted to cap their exposure to Argentina in recent months. While Latin American currencies, for instance, slipped on the news of Mr. de la Ras departure, they did so only mod- estly. The currency of neighboring Brazil, in fact, is near a six- month high. The U.S. dollar rose on world markets, as many in- vestors tend to view the currency as a ha- ven in times of eco- nomic turmoil. U.S. Treasury Sec- retary Paul ONeill brushed aside any sug- gestion of economic contagion from Argentina, which he de- scribed as insolvent, saying events in the nation of 37 million had been building toward crisis for months and markets had largely discounted the expected implosion. One foreign venue where the Argentine crisis is a bit more palpable: the floor of the Madrid Stock Exchange. Marquee Spanish firms have plowed more than $30 billion into Argentina over the past de- cade. The local share prices of Spains five largest companiesbanks Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA and Banco Santander Central Hispano SA, electricity producer Endesa SA, oil company Repsol- YPF SA and telephone operator Telefonica SAhave fallen precipitously this year be- cause of Argentinas woes. Power in Buenos Aires now appears likely to shift to the opposition Peronist party, whose standard-bearer, the flamboy- ant former president Carlos Menem, deep- ened the budget profligacy that put Argen- tina on economic tenterhooks in the first place. Just who will succeed Mr. de la Ra isnt immediately clear. But one question the Peronists may ask themselves as they prepare to retake power: Do they really want it? The incoming president faces a passel of unpleasant economic policy op- tions, from currency devaluation to debt default, not to mention a punishing reces- sion that has put nearly one out of every five Argentines out of work. Dollarizationthe outright adoption of the greenbackhas been proposed. Tiny Ecuador most recently has given it a go, and it has helped tame inflation and bring down sky-high interest rates there. By con- trast, Argentina has allowed its pesos to circulate alongside dollars, leaving doubts in the minds of investors as to whether the one-to-one peg would always hold. Yet adopting the dollar and junking the peso printing presses wouldnt solve Ar- gentinas most immediate problem: the need to stoke confidence in lenders and its own people. They had been emptying their bank accounts for weeks, in favor of stuff- ing their mattresses, before the govern- ment imposed harsh bank withdrawal lim- its at the beginning of the month, now somewhat eased. Besides, say analysts, the government might not have enough U.S. currency in its vaults to dollarize right now. When Ecua- dor dollarized, barges loaded with U.S. coins had to steam south to meet the de- mand. Currency devaluation, meanwhile, is unlikely to offer the kind of impetus to exports that it did for Mexico in 1995. Thats because Argentina sits far removed from big consumers in Europe and North America and is notoriously poor at selling its goods abroad. The country exports a feeble 8% of its total economic output. Only a few countries, like Rwanda, Bu- rundi and Haiti, export less as a percent- age of gross domestic product. If Argentina runs too low on the hard- currency reserves, such as dollars and gold, that are the backbone of its peg with the dollar, it might have no choice but to let the peso float freely against other cur- rencies. That would almost certainly cause a sharp devaluation in the peso. Al- lowing the peso to devalue against the dol- lar, as Brazil did in 1999, would be espe- cially painful for ordinary Argentines. Most people earn money in pesos but carry mortgages and car and business loans in dollars, so their debts would in- stantly become more expensive to repay after a devaluation. The governments own debt crisis would be compounded by a devaluation, since almost all of its $95 billion in bonds are denominated in U.S. or European cur- rencies. Even short of a devaluation, bond- holders say, the chances of a full-fledged default on debt have risen exponentially, since the government will find it politi- cally difficult to pay interest to its foreign investors while Argentines are rioting for food. In the streets, angry citizens de- manded change. Mounted police wielding truncheons charged protestersordinary Argentines beleaguered by the economys meltdown and by controls on their bank accounts imposed just as Christmas ap- proaches. At least 22 people were killed in two days of violence and more than 2,000 arrested. Water can- nons and tear gas dis- persed thousands of protesters in the leafy capital. Similar protests over the past few days appear to be what fi- nally pushed the head- strong economy minis- ter, Domingo Cavallo, to resign late Wednes- day. (It was also on Wednesday that Mr. de la Ra declared a 30-day state of emer- gency that suspends a broad range of con- stitutional guarantees, including freedom of travel, the press and labor organiza- tion.) The 55-year-old, Harvard-trained economist took the reins of Argentinas economy in March, coasting on his reputa- tion for having created the dollar-peso peg in 1991 during a previous stint as economy minister, saving a grateful people from the ravages of hyperinflation. Suddenly, the government could no longer print pesos at will, and inflation was limited. But his newer prescriptions, including a blend of tax increases and cuts in public- sector wages, failed to reverse the coun- trys deep slump. The popular frustration came to a head after he put a partial freeze on withdrawals of deposits this month to stop a run on the banks and then declared that the government would make additional budget cuts to gain access to loans from the IMF, which had required fiscal discipline as a condition of its lend- ing. With Mr. Cavallo gone, economists say his currency peg isnt likely to last, either. While Cavallo was in power, we knew that he was dead set against devaluation and would default only if he simply ran out of money, said Lawrence Krohn, chief Latin American economist at ING Bar- ings. Now all of that has changed. Argentina recently lightened its debt load by pressuring local investors to turn in their bonds for new debt with lower interest rates and a longer payment pe- riod. It has been planning a separate swap for bonds held abroad. Even before the social upheaval intensified this week, Ar- gentine officials had been hinting that the foreigners would probably get worse terms that the locals. I would not be surprised at all to see a cessation of payments, said Hans Hume, a fund manager at Van Eck Investments, which holds Argentine bonds. I anticipate that this is going to be a much nastier and drawn-out process than most bondholders expect. Fitch Ratings Inc. said it now expects a broad and disorderly default on all of Argentinas bonds, in which creditors will have to accept at least a 50% reduction in the principal amount of the bonds. The default would be triggered if Argentina misses any of the $600 million in debt pay- ments still due this month. The biggest hurdle is whether investors will buy $451 million in short-term treasury bills set for next week. Governments sell such debt to fund their needs. A bond restructuring would affect a wide swath of foreign investors, ranging from U.S. hedge funds and insurance com- panies to a Dutch metalworkers group. Of the total, roughly $18 billion is owned by U.S. investors, estimates economist Chris- tian Stracke of Commerzbank Securities Inc. Among the firms that say they have small positions in Argentine debt are MetLife Inc., John Hancock Financial Ser- vices Inc. and the Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association College Retirement Equities Fund, better known as TIAA- CREF. About $23 billion of Argentinas bonds are denominated in European currencies Please Turn to Page A13, Column 1 Investment of $375 Million, Accord on Ad Revenue End Months of Bickering Castro Would Allow U.S. Oil Exploration Cuban President Fidel Castro said he would allow oil exploration by U.S. compa- nies off Cubas coasteven though the longstanding U.S. trade embargo against Cuba would appear to forbid it. We would not deprive Ameri- cans of the possibility of investing in these resources, he said on Cuban television while discussing the countrys purchases of U.S. food. He said Cuba was paying $40 million, including transportation costs, for grains, chicken and other products that will be delivered by March. Congress last year passed a law permitting food sales to Cuba. Representa- tives of U.S. business and some U.S. offi- cials hope the shipments will lead to in- creased trade with Cuba, but many anti- Castro Cuban exiles oppose the sales. The food will replace reserves depleted after Hurricane Michelle hit Cuba last month; the U.S. offered humanitarian aid after the storm, but Havana said it preferred to make commercial purchases of food. WTO to Hold 2003 Meeting in Mexico The World Trade Organizations direc- tor general, Mike Moore, said its member countries agreed to hold the next minis- ters meeting in Mexico in mid-2003. The decision was made at a Geneva meeting of the WTOs General Council, the first since a ministerial conference in Doha, Qatar, last month that agreed to launch a new round of global trade-liberalization talks. Mexico was the only country that offered to host the 2003 meeting, which will be chaired by its economy minister, Ernesto Derbez. He played a key role at Doha in shaping an accord on poor nations access to drugs for AIDS and other diseases. BRIEFLY: % Brazils third-quarter gross domestic product rose a revised 0.5% from a year earlier, up from an earlier 0.34% estimate, the IBGE statistics institute said. It also said the revision put year-to-date growth at 2.25%, up from 2.17% estimated earlier. % Anglo-Dutch consumer-products com- pany Unilever said it sold its Unipath wom- ens-health diagnostic business to Inv- erness Medical Innovations, a U.S. health- care products company, for 103 million ($149 million). % Canadian consumer prices in November fell 0.9% from the month beforethe sharp- est drop in 42 yearsand were up 0.7% from a year earlier, Statistics Canada said. Analysts said the data were a clear sign of an economy in decline. Statistics Canada said the decline was mainly the result of weaker prices for gasoline, natu- ral gas and traveler accommodation. By Jacob M. Schlesinger And Damian Milverton Staff Reporters of The Wall Street Journal WASHINGTONBush administration and International Monetary Fund officials said the political chaos in Argentina wouldnt sway them from their hard-line position against additional aid to the Latin American nation, and professed confi- dence that the turmoil wouldnt trigger broader global financial shocks. I dont think the violence is a function of whether the IMF did more or lessthe violence is a function of the peoples frustra- tion with their government, Treasury Sec- retary Paul ONeill said in an interview, referring to the angry Argentine street clashes that have left at least 20 dead. The notion that the rioting, which cata- lyzed the resignation of President Fernando de la Ra yesterday, might justify more aid from the U.S. or from the IMF, in which the U.S. is the largest shareholder, suggests somehowthat we should accept the responsi- bility for how they run their country, which is inappropriate to me, Mr. ONeill said. Mr. ONeill dismissed the danger of any broader fallout throughout the region, or to emerging markets in general. Theyve been approaching this time for a year or longer, he said, adding: I think markets have seen this coming and theyve discounted it. Separately, IMF spokesman Thomas Dawson told reporters that the fund wasnt rushing to free up de- layed loans, noting that while board mem- bers could be con- tacted during an emer- gency, there was no meeting scheduled to discuss Argentina and the board is now on its traditional holiday recess. Mr. Dawson said discussions with Ar- gentina over a stalled $22 billion loan pack- age wouldnt begin until a new cabinet was picked, and made clear that the money wouldnt be released until Buenos Aires adopted economic policies the IMF considered acceptable. Our aim has been to help the Argentines developon their owna program that can be sustained both economically and politically, and that remains our goal, he said. When Mr. ONeill took office this year, he vowed to shift away from the Clinton admin- istrations tendency to actively manage emerging-market crises. He pledged to leave more decisions to the IMF and to take a more skeptical view of financial aid. After agreeing to extend more loans to Argentina in August, the Treasury secretary has taken a harder line against the country through the fall as financial conditions have wors- ened, making it a test case for his views. In a striking contrast with his predeces- sors, he said he wasnt even talking to Argen- tine officials this week and referred most questions about the situation to the IMF. Re- minded that Mr. Clintons Treasury would have been in more constant contact, Mr. ONeill replied: They also would have been in there giving them moneyendlessly. White House spokesman Ari Fleischer took a similar position, stressing that the IMF was in charge of the matter. The president considers Argentina a valued ally and friend, Mr. Fleischer said. The president would like to see Argentina work- ing with the IMF to be able to work through this situation in ways that lead to sustainable economic growth. LOS ANGELESEnding months of acri- monious negotiations, Mexicos Grupo Tele- visa SA closed a deal to increase its stake in U.S. Spanish-language TV group Univision Communications Inc. and boost its share of ad revenue, while extending the U.S. broad- casters exclusive access to Televisas ros- ter of soap operas and other shows. Under the agreement, Televisa will make an equity investment of $375 mil- lion in Univision and also sell the U.S. group its record label, Fonovisa. In re- turn, Televisa will receive a combination of shares and warrants that will increase its equity stake in Univision to 15% from 6%. In addition, Televisa Chairman Emilio Azcarraga Jean will join Univi- sions board as vice chairman. Univision, which already has the right to run Televisas shows on its flagship broadcast and cable networks, will also get exclusive rights to run the Mexican groups content on its new broadcast sys- tem, Telefutura, which is slated for launch next month. As part of the deal, the U.S. broadcaster will increase the fee it pays to Televisa to 12% of its advertising revenue, up from 9% currently. The 9%widely con- sidered a bargain price for the string of hit programming supplied by Televisawas established nine years ago as part of a landmark deal struck by Univision Chair- man Jerry Perenchio. Univision shares fell after the an- nouncement to trade at 4 p.m. on the New York Exchange at $37.92, down $1.98, as investors interpreted the accord as an indi- cation that Univision is not a likely take- over play. Univisions shares had soared to nearly $40, from about $20 in Septem- ber, spurred by takeover speculation fol- lowing the purchase of Univisions smaller rival, Telemundo, by General Electric Co.s NBC in October. By locking in with Televisa, analysts said, Univision execu- tives are clearly pursuing their own growth strategyand not merely counting on an acquisition bid. Despite the falloff in the stock price, analysts said that the Televisa agreement is strategically sound. Well have more than enough program- ming for our three networks, said Ray Rodriguez, who oversees that part of Univi- sion. Telefutura will immediately be in a strong competitive position vis a vis Tele- mundo. Alfonso de Angoitia, chief finan- cial officer at the Mexican broadcaster, added that this deal...ends the uncer- tainty about our U.S. strategy. The agreement brings to a halt months of bickering between the two companies. Televisa, hit by slower advertising at home and looking to further tap the fast- growing U.S. Hispanic market, com- plained that under its current 25-year agreement, ending in 2017, it provided roughly 40% of Univisions program- mingincluding its most popular showsfor only the 9% of Univisions ad- vertising revenue. And it demanded a big- ger equity stake and higher licensing fee. But Univision rebuffed Televisa, agreeing instead to buy thousands of hours of pro- gramming from alternative sources in Co- lombia and Venezuela to feed Telefutura. But in the end, Televisa and Univision found that they needed each other. Tied by its contract with Univision, Televisa could not negotiate a deal with a third party in the U.S. Meanwhile, concern over height- ened competition after NBC bought Tele- mundo further whetted Univisions desire to secure Televisas blockbuster soaps for its new network. The agreement also includes a 50-50 joint venture between Univision and Tele- visa to introduce Televisas cable and satel- lite channels into the U.S. market. Univi- sion also closed a deal with Venezuelas Venevision, which will increase its equity stake in the U.S. broadcaster to 19% from 18% and grant Univision access to its shows for Telefutura as well. Belgiums Interbrew has drawn up a short list of bidders for its British brand Carling. People familiar with the situation said Interbrew has received offers from Heineken of the Netherlands, Coors Brew- ing of the U.S., British private-equity firm Apax Partners and a consortium made up of Cinven and CVC Capital Partners Group, also of the United Kingdom. Ana- lysts expect Carling to fetch around 1.2 billion ($1.74 billion). Heineken, Apax and Interbrew all declined to comment. Coors, Cinven and CVC couldnt be reached to comment. The winning bid would need to be approved by Britains Office of Fair Trading. The watchdog ordered Interbrew to sell some assets in September because of competition concerns following its 2.3 billion purchase of Bass Brewers last year. A successful bid by Heineken would give the Dutch brewer a 24% market share in the U.K. and make it No. 2 behind Brit- ish brewer Scottish & Newcastle, which has 28% of the market. Marconi Agrees to Sell Unit to Danaher British telecommunications-equipment maker Marconi appears set to hit its debt- reduction target following a deal to sell its U.S. fuel-dispensing business for $325 mil- lion and a buyback of its own bonds with a face value of about $220 million. The com- pany agreed to sell its Marconi Commerce Systems unit, based in Greensboro, N.C., to Danaher Corp., a maker of industrial tools and controls equipment based in Washington, D.C. Marconi declined to say how much it paid for its bonds, which have been trading recently at between 40% and 50% of their face value, but analysts esti- mate the buyback cost at about 75 million ($109 million). The two deals appear to reduce Marconis net debt to about 3.2 billion, from about 3.5 billion currently. Peugeot, Toyota Select Czech Plant Site Frances PSA Peugeot Citroen and Ja- pans Toyota Motor said they selected the Czech Republic as the site for a joint-ven- ture plant to produce small cars for the European market. The auto makers said the plant will be located in Kolin, about 35 miles east of Prague. Construction is ex- pected to begin in January, with produc- tion to start in 2005. The companies said they expect to invest about 1.5 billion eu- ros ($1.35 billion) in the project. The plant will have a production capacity of 300,000 cars a year. The selection of the Czech site was a big setback for Poland, which had proposed a location in the countrys south. Eurotunnels Chief Executive to Depart Eurotunnel Groups chief executive, Philippe Lazare, will depart Dec. 31 amid differences over how the debt-burdened channel-tunnel operator should be man- aged, the Anglo-French company said. He will be replaced by Chief Financial Officer Richard Shirrefs, who has helped cut Euro- tunnels debt from 10 billion ($14.5 bil- lion) to about 5 billion. Mr. Lazare couldnt be reached to comment. The change comes as one of Eurotunnels big- gest clients, the Eurostar train service, faces strikes in one of its busiest periods. Lufthansa Orders 15 Airbus Jumbo Jets Airbus said German flag carrier Lufthansa, as expected, signed a final con- tract for the purchase of 15 of the Euro- pean aircraft makers planned A380 jumbo jets. Lufthansa is expected to take deliv- ery of the first of its 550-seat, double-deck jetliners in 2007, Airbus said. Lufthansas board had approved the multibillion-dollar order Dec. 6. The Lufthansa order brings Airbuss firm orders for the A380 to 85. RWE to Buy Britains Highland Energy German utility conglomerate RWE said it agreed to acquire British natural-gas producer Highland Energy Holdings, in a move that will give RWE access to gas reserves in the North Sea. Financial terms of the deal werent disclosed. The acquisi- tion, which requires regulatory clearance, continues RWEs expansion in the Euro- pean natural-gas market, following the companys $3.7 billion acquisition this week of Czech gas-import monopoly Trans- gas and stakes in eight gas distributors. BRIEFLY: % Britains third-quarter gross domestic product expanded 0.5% from the previous quarter and rose 2.2% from a year before, the governments statistics office said. Britains economy is firmly at the top of the G-7 growth scale, said Arjun Mittal, an economist with American Express. % The European Commission said it began legal proceedings against Germany, Greece and Portugal for failing to open their telecom markets to competition. Bank of Japan Downgrades Its Outlook The Bank of Japan, as expected, down- graded its economic assessment for the seventh straight month, saying Japans economy is broadly worsening and that severe adjustments in the economy will continue. Meanwhile, Japans cabinet ap- proved an initial draft budget for the fiscal year beginning April 1 that totals 81.23 trillion yen ($635 billion). The pro- posed government spending is 1.7% less than the initial bud- get for the current fis- cal year, before the two recently com- piled supplementary budgets. The Bank of Japans latest down- grade comes amid the countrys worst slump in the postwar period. Japans economy is worsening broadly, as private consumption is weakening in addition to a decline in exports and business invest- ment, it said. Separately, Japans trade surplus in November narrowed to 498.3 bil- lion yen, from 595.6 billion yen a year ear- lier. Exports fell 9.1% to 3.892 trillion yen, while imports fell 8% to 3.393 trillion yen. IBRA Aims to Raise $3.5 Billion in 2002 The chairman of the Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency, or IBRA, said the agency aims to raise 35.3 trillion rupiah ($3.5 billion) from asset sales and loan repayments for Indonesias cash-strapped government in 2002. He said this years result of 27.98 trillion rupiah outpaced the agencys target of 27 trillion rupiah. Most of the cash collected this year came from sales of assets debtors pledged to IBRA. China, Japan Resolve Trade Dispute China and Japan reached agreement Friday on the resolution of a nine-month old trade dispute over surging imports of Chinese farm products, a spokesman for Chinas Foreign Trade Ministry said in Beijing. He said Japan will not impose curbs on the three Chinese agricultural goods, and China will scrap punitive tar- iffs on Japanese cars and other products. BRIEFLY: % Japans Softbank, its Yahoo Japan unit and Sony Computer Entertainment said they have agreed to jointly provide broad- band-network services by using Sonys PlayStation 2 video-game consoles. The companies said they plan to begin offering the services in the spring. % China has pledged support for a pro- posed free-trade agreement with Hong Kong, Hong Kong Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa said Wednesday on a visit to Beijing, after meeting with President Jiang Zemin and Premier Zhu Rongji. W ORLD WATC H COMP I LED BY DAVI D I . OYAMA Vital Statistics of a Flailing Economy *Indicates perceived risk Sources: Thomson Financial/Datastream; J.P. Morgan; Fitch Ratings; CIA Argentine GDP Year-to-year change at an annual rate Unemployment Rate Public Debt In billions By type of creditor, in billions of pesos, as of June 30 Bond Yields Public-Sector Debt, Quick Facts EMBI+ spread over Treasurys in sovereign debt*, in percentage points Current Population: 37,384,816 (July 2001 est.) Per Capita Income: $12,900 (2000 est.) Chief Exports: Edible oils, fuels and energy, cereals, feed, motor vehicles 10% 5 0 5 10 $160 120 80 40 0 1995 1995 1989 96 96 91 93 95 97 99 97 98 99 0001 97 98 99 0001 2001 20% 18 16 14 12 60 45 30 15 0 Reported semiannually Bonds and commercial paper 94.6 Multilateral 24.8 Bilateral (includes Paris Club) 4.7 Commercial banks 2.8 Other 1.5 Officials Remain Convinced That Countrys Turmoil Wont Spur Wider Shock Paul ONeill Domingo Cavallo Argentinas Beleaguered Government Collapses Fernando de la Ra By Wall Street Journal staff reporters Eduardo Porter in Los Angeles and David Luhnow in Mexico City. Licensed to Kill: In Afghanistan, a Marine sniper waits for the perfect moment Page A1. Fighting Terror: U.S. freezes the assets of two Pakistani groups Page A3. Europe: Investment groups jockey to bid for Telecom Austria Page A13. Asia: As other nations engage North Korea, should U.S. do the same? Page A13. Mexicos Televisa Agrees to Increase Its Stake in Univision THE AMERICAS ASIA/PACIFIC Japanese Yen Per U.S. Dollar Oct. 01 Nov. Dec. inverted scale 120 122 124 126 128 130 in yen Fidel Castro EUROPE Interbrew Compiles Bidding Short List For Its Carling Unit s 2001 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. i i i i i FRIDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2001 A9