Betting Exchange Trader PDF

BettingExchangeTrader
Millards2004
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4
Introduction
Everyoneknowsthatitisdifficulttomake money fromtraditional stylegambling forevery5
successful gamblers, who usually fall into the professional category, there are 95 nonprofit
making individuals who have to finance the minority. These 95 usually fall into one of the
followingcategories:
TheUndisciplined
TheUnlucky
TheUnprepared
AndlastbutnotleastTHEMUGPUNTER
There are now alternatives to traditional gambling and these alternatives still provide the
excitementwhenlookingforlongtermprofits.
Whatarethesealternatives?LAYING&TRADING.
THEMAINPARTOFTHISMANUALISABOUTTRADING.
5
WhatisTrading?
How do shopkeepers, market stall traders, share traders etc. make profits? They buy whatever
theyaresellingatwholesaleoratpriceslowerthanthatatwhichtheycansellthoseproducts.
Howdoesallofthisfitintogamblingmarkets?
Just a few years ago someone named Andrew Black, who used to trade on the Stock Market,
buyingandsellingshares,hadtheideaofapplyingtheprinciplesofhisprofessiontogambling.
He believed, that instead of punters being restricted to a oneway gamble (Backing to Win)
with the traditional high street Bookmakers, it was possible to put people in touch with each
othertoenablethemtobuyandsellbettingodds.HisideawastosetupaBettingExchange.
Although there are now several of these exchanges to be found on the Internet, by far the
biggestisBetfairthebrainchildofAndrewBlack.
RolePlaying
Role1
ThispersonwishestoBACK
acontestanttoWINand
wantstoplaceabetof100at
oddsof5.5
ThispersonwishestoLAYa
contestanttoLOSEandis
willingtotakeupthebetof
100atoddsof5.5
Heiseffectivelyactingasa
Bookmaker.
Thispersonistheintermediary(TheBettingExchange).TheBettingExchangeisbringingtheBACKERand
theLAYERtogethertostrikeabetandwillsafelykeepagreedbetfundsinaBankDepositAccount,untilthe
resultofthebetisknown.
Hewilltake100fromtheBACKERand450fromtheLAYERuntiltheresultoftheeventisknown.
IftheBACKERWINS,theBettingExchangewilltransfer550,lessasmallcommission%(maximumof
5%),intoheraccount.This550ismadeupofwinningsof450,whichtheLAYERhashadtopayout,andher
originalstakemoneyof100.TheLAYERdoesnotreceiveanythingbackintohisaccount.
IftheBACKERLOSES,shehasnothingdepositedbacktoheraccount,buttheLAYERgetstokeepthe100,
lessasmallcommission%(maximumof5%),putupbytheBACKER,andthisamountisdulydepositedinto
hisaccounttogetherwiththecollateralof450hehadtodepositwiththeBettingExchangeforsafekeeping.
BACKER
BETTING
EXCHANGE
LAYER
6
Role2
When trading in this way you will have to get used to the role you are playing. Are you a
BACKERorareyouaLAYER?
The purpose of this manual is to explain the principles of trading in odds by bringing
BACKINGandLAYINGtogethertogeneratenoloseandguaranteedprofitsituations.
There are various aims when trading odds which will be explained in turn. Throughout this
manualthebasicprincipleswill beexplainedthroughhorseracingexamplesand itwillthen be
in your hands how far you wish to apply the knowledge gained to the market(s) you wish to
enter.Youmay havespecialisedknowledge ina particularsport,whichwill help youtojudge
whichwayamarketismoving,andasyouwilllearnlater,thiscanbemorevaluablethantrying
topickwinnersorlosers.
Onthisoccasion,thisperson
wishestoLAYacontestantto
LOSE,effectivelyactingasa
Bookmaker,andwantssome
onetoplaceabetof20at
oddsof2.5
Thispersoniswillingto
placeabetfor20atoddsof
2.5
Thispersonistheintermediary(TheBettingExchange).HeisbringingtheBACKERandtheLAYERtogether
tostrikeabetandwillsafelykeepagreedbetfundsinaBankDepositAccount,untiltheresultofthebetis
known.
Hewilltake30fromtheLAYERand20fromtheBACKERuntiltheresultoftheeventisknown.
IftheLAYERWINS,(i.e.thecontestantLOSES)theBettingExchangewilltransfer20,lessasmall
commission%(maximumof5%),intoheraccount.SheiskeepingthestakemoneyplacedbytheBACKER.
TheBACKERdoesnotreceiveanythingbackintohisaccount.
IftheLAYERLOSES,(i.e.thecontestantWINS)shehasnothingdepositedbacktoheraccount,butthe
BACKERwillhavewinningsof30,lessasmallcommission%(maximumof5%),plushisstakemoney
depositedtohisaccount.
BACKER
BETTING
EXCHANGE
LAYER
7
OpeninganAccount
Before you can begin your trading activities you will need to open an account with a Betting
Exchange.
AtthispointIsuggestyouuseBetfair,althoughlaterinthemanualyouwilllearnthatitmight
bebeneficialtousemorethanoneBettingExchange.
Open Betfair in your web browser (www.betfair.com) and you will be presented with their
homepage:
ClickonNEWUSERandyouwillbeled
throughtheproceduretoopenanaccount.
OK.YounowhaveanaccountwithBetfairandyouwanttostarttrading.
YounowhavetoselectwhichMarketyouaregoingtoenter.TheMarkets
arefoundonthelefthandsideofthescreen.Iamgoingtoshowexamples
usingHorseRacing.
8
MarketSelection
AspreviouslystatedIamgoingtouseHorseRacing.
YoucanseethattherearetwolistingsforHorseRacing.Thefirstisusedtonarrowdown
whichvenueyouwishtouseandthesecondlistsALLracesfortheday.Illselecttheformer.
HorseRacing/UK/Chepstow/Chepstow19:20
Ihavenowfilteredthroughtoaraceat
Chepstowbeingrunat19:20
SEEOVER
9
BettingExchangeFlexibility
ThisiswheretheflexibilityofaBettingExchangeshowsitself.
We haveachoice.WecanBACKTOWINorLAYTOLOSE.Thispower,asyouwill learn,
allowsustobecomeTRADERS,I.E.TRADERSINBETTINGODDS.
ThemainareasofpowergiventousbyBettingExchanges,otherthanbeingabletousethemto
betmuchlikeusingatraditionalBookmakerare:
Wearenowabletoaskforourownodds
WecannowLAYahorsetoLOSE,effectivelytakingontheroleofaBookmaker.
Venue
Horse
BACK
ODDS
LAY
ODDS
10
AboutBACKOdds
If you have bet before, using a traditional Bookmaker, you are probably used to using
"FractionalOdds"whenplacingabet.Fromnowon,whenusingaBettingExchange,youwill
be using European "Decimal Odds". Decimal odds are much easier to use and comparison
betweenoddsisquicker.
The difference between the two types of odds presentation is quite straightforward. As an
example, the Fractional Odds of 2/1 (two to one) converts to a Decimal Odd of 3.0 (three).
Converting Fractional Odds to Decimal Odds is done by dividing the numerator by the
denominatorandadding1,thus:
2dividedby1+1=3.0
WeaddonebecauseDecimalOddsincludetheoriginalstakemoneywhencalculatingreturns.
However, before diving into the realms of betting, let me, for the uninitiated to gambling,
explain a little aboutthe principles of betting odds. Firstly, I will give a number of examples
usingFractionalOddsandthenshowthesameexamplesusingDecimalOdds.Don'tforget,we
areatpresentlookingatBACKINGexamplesLAYINGwillbeexplainedlater.
Oddsarethemathematicalfigures,whichstatehowwinningbetswillbesettled.TheFractional
Oddsof2/1(2to1)(2to1against)meansthattheBookmakerwillbethis2toyour1thatyour
selectiondoesnotwin(youmustwinbeforetheBookmakerwillgiveyouareturn).
Ignoring bettingtax,whichatthetimeofwriting this manual,did notexist inBritain if you
bet1attheoddsof2/1,andthehorseyouhavebackedgoesontowin,thenyouwillreceive
3fromyourBookmaker.
e.g.
1.2x1=2.00(YourProfit)
PlusOriginalStakeMoney=1.00
TotalReturn=3.00
Furtherexamplesusing1asyourOriginalStakeMoney:
2.Odds11/8
11/8x1=1.37(YourProfit)
TotalReturn=2.37
11
3.Odds4/5(OddsOn)(5to4On)
ThissimplymeansthattheBookmakerisbettinghis4toyour5.
4/5x1=0.80(YourProfit)
TotalReturn=1.80
NowthatthebasicsofFractionalOddshasbeen coveredyoumust get used tousing
DecimalOddsifyouaregoingtousetheBettingExchangesforyournewadventures.
TheexamplesbelowshowtheequivalentDecimalOddsformatoftheexamplesshown
above:
1.Odds3.0(FractionalOdds2/1)
ReturnfromBookmaker3.0x1=3.00
LessOriginalStakeMoney=1.00
YourProfit=2.00
YourProfit=1.37
YourProfit=0.80
WhenBACKINGyouwillbelookingfor,oraskingfor,asHIGHODDSaspossible.
12
AboutLAYOdds
You have seen how BACKING odds work when you are placing a bet with a
Bookmaker. Now, all thereis to understanding LAY odds, is to reverse therole. You
are nowthe Bookmakerandacceptingbets fromothers. Look atthe examples again
(ChapterAboutBACKOdds),butthistimeputyourselfintheBookmakersseat.
WhenyoulookatthelayoutoftheBettingExchangeslaterinthismanualinourcase
Betfair, you will see two sets of odds one for those wishing to "BACK" A
CONTESTANT TO WIN and one for those wishing to "LAY" A CONTESTANT TO
LOSE.
You will select the LAY odds if you wish to act as Bookmaker. Put simply, it means
other users of Betfair will be placingbets with you, asif youare a Bookmaker. They
willbebettingonthecontestanttoWIN,whereasyouwillbelookingforthecontestant
toLOSE.
WhenLAYINGyouwillbelookingfor,oraskingfor,asLOWODDSaspossible.
13
BACKtoWIN
IfyouhaveeverusedatraditionalBookmakeryouhaveonlybeenabletoBACKahorseto
WINatoddsgiventoyoubytheBookmaker.TheequivalentoddsonaBettingExchangeare
shown under the BACK column. These odds are not dictated by the Bookmaker, although
marketforcesmaybringthemcloselyintolinewiththoseofaBookmakertheyareputthereby
individuals,likeyou,waitingforsomeone,likeyou,totakeuptheofferofabet.
Forexample:
The firsthorse inthe list,Dami, hasoddsof3.85withanamountof145.3.85representsthe
bestoddsavailable,withthenextbestoddsqueuingup,hopingtobecomethebestodds.
This meansthatthere is145onofferatoddsof 3.85,whichhas beenplacedupontheboard
byoneperson,orismadeupofanumberofplacementsfromanumberofindividuals.Infuture
Iwillassumeithasbeenplacedbyoneperson.
ThepersonofferingthisbetbelievesDamiwilllose.Ifyouthinkthehorsewillwin,andwishto
place a bet,the same as using a traditional Bookmaker, then you would click on the odds and
thenenterhowmuchofthe145youwishtotake.
OddsandAmountsonOffercanchangeveryquickly,especiallywhenthestartoftheeventis
approaching.Betweenthetimeyouhavedecidedtoplaceabetandthetimeyousubmitand
confirm,theoddsandtheamountonoffermaynolongerbeavailablesomeoneelsemay
havetakenthebet,orsomeonewithdrewtheiroffer.Ifalliswellandyourbetisplacedyouwill
beinformedthatyourbethasbeen matched.If,ontheotherhand,theofferhasdisappeared
andyourbetisnottakenthenyouwillbeinformedthatyourbetisunmatched.Your
unmatchedbetwillthenbeputinaqueuetowaitforthepossibilityoftheoddsbeingoffered
again.Youmaycancelanybetsintheunmatchedareaanytimeyouwishifyoudecideyouno
IhavedecidedtoBACK
DamitoWINandhave
staked20at3.85
Thisgivesmeapotential
profitof57
AtthisstageIHAVENOTplacedthebet.Imust
nowSUBMITthebetandthenCONFIRM
14
longerwanttowaitforamatch totakeplace.
Youmaynotliketheoddsbeingoffered.ThebeautyaboutaBettingExchangeisthatyoudont
havetotakewhatisonofferyoucanaskforyourownodds,withthehopeofbeingmatched.
TotherightoftheBACKODDSyouwillseethreecolumnsundertheLAYarea.Theseare
oddswhereapersonisaskingforhisownoddsandiswaitingtobematched.Thiswouldbethe
sameaswritingoutabettingslipinatraditionalBookmakersandaskingtheBookmakerifhe
willacceptyourbetwiththeoddsandamountyouareaskingfor.Thebetismatchedifthe
Bookmakeraccepts.
PleasenotethatthroughoutthismanualanycommissiondeductedbyBettingExchangesisignored.
ItsallaboutOffer&Acceptance
15
LetmeexplainaboutaskingforyourownBACKodds:
IhavedecidedthatIwantbetteroddsthan3.85
Icanseethatthereareotherswhoarealsolookingforbetterodds4,4.1and4.2withvarying
amounts.
IdontwanttobetoogreedysoImgoingtoaskforoddsof4andanamountof20.
ToputmyrequestontheboardImgoingtooverwritethe3.85inthePlaceBetsareawith4
AssoonasIveSUBMITTED
andCONFIRMEDmyrequest
providednooneelseisasking
foroddsof4atthesametime,
andnoonetakesupmyrequest
immediately,theamount
requestedwillchangefrom74
to94.The20Iamaskingfor
hasbeenadded,andisnowwait
ingtobematched.
Profitpotentialwill
changefrom57to
60tocaterfor
increasedodds.
16
AllIamwaitingfornowisforaBookmaker(someonetakingontheroleofBookmaker)to
accepttheoddsandtheamountIamaskingfor.
Myrequestmaybetakenupstraightaway,inwhichcaseitwillbematched,andneverhitthe
displayboard.Ifitisunmatched,Imusttakemyplaceinthequeue,andanysimilarrequestto
minealreadyinthequeue,mustbematchedbeforemine.
DONT be confused by a BACK request appearing under the LAY area. I want to BACK a
horsetoWINbuttheOddsintheBACKareaarenottomyliking,soIamaskingforsomeone
to accept my bet at Odds I want. Think about it for a second I want the horse to WIN but
anyonelookingforahorsetoLOSEwillbelookingundertheLAYareaforacceptableodds.
OK.YouveseenhowtoBACKtoWINandhowtoaskforyourownoddsandamount.
NowgotothenextchapterwhereyouwilllearnanotherpowerfulaspectofBettingExchanges.
17
LAYtoLOSE
When LAYING to LOSE you are effectively taking on the role of a Bookmaker without the
overheads.Youhavenostafftopay,noHighStreetbuildingtorun.AllyouneedisaPCwith,
preferably,ahighspeedconnection,andofcourseanaccountwithaBettingExchange.
UnliketheHighStreetBookmaker,whohastoofferoddsforeveryrace,youcanbeselective,
cherrypickingyourfavouredevents.
InthepreviouschapterIselectedDamiandBACKEDtoWIN.
InthischapterIdontthinkDamiisgoingtowinsoImgoingtoLAYtoLOSE.Itisadvisable,
ifyoudontthinkahorseisgoingtowin,toselecthorseswithaslowLAYODDSaspossible.
DontforgetyouaretakingontheroleofaBookmakerand ifthehorsewins youwill haveto
payoutattheoddstaken.
AsstatedinthechapterBACKtoWIN,oddscanchangeveryquicklyandcanbemissed.
IhavedecidedtoLAY
DamitoLOSEandhave
taken20at4.00
Thisgivesmeapotential
PayoutLiabiltyof60
AtthisstageIHAVENOTtakenthebet.Imust
nowSUBMITandthenCONFIRM
18
Youmaynotliketheoddsbeingoffered.ThebeautyaboutaBettingExchangeisthatyoudont
havetotakewhatisonofferyoucanaskforyourownodds,withthehopeofbeingmatched.
TotheleftoftheLAYODDSyouwillseethreecolumnsundertheBACKarea.Theseareodds
whereapersonisaskingforhisownodds,asaBookmaker,andiswaitingtobematched.As
Bookmakeryouarelookingtokeepoddsasshortaspossibletolessentheamountyouhaveto
payoutifabackedhorsewins.Therolehasbeenchangedandsomeoneisplacingabetwith
you.
ItsallaboutOffer&Acceptance
19
LetmeexplainaboutaskingforyourownLAYodds:
IhavedecidedthatIwantbetteroddsthan4.00andbythisImeanIwantLOWERoddsafter
all,IamtheBookmakeronthisoccasion,andIdontwanttopayouttoomuchifthehorsewins
therace.
Icanseethatthereareotherswhoarealsolookingforbetterodds3.85,3.75and3.7with
varyingamounts.
IwantmyoddstobematchedsoIamgoingtoaskforoddsof3.85andanamountof20.
ToputmyrequestontheboardImgoingtooverwritethe4.0inthePlaceBetsareawith3.85
AssoonasIveSUBMITTEDand
CONFIRMEDmyrequestprovidednoone
elseisaskingforoddsof3.85atthesametime
andnoonetakesupmyrequestimmediately,
theamountrequestedwillchangefrom145
to165.The20Iamaskingforhasbeen
addedandisnowwaitingtobematched.
PayoutLiability
willchangefrom
60to57to
caterforde
creasedodds.
3.85 57.00
165
20
AllIamwaitingfornowisforsomeonetocomeintomyBookmakersshopandplaceabetfor
theoddsandamountIhaveputupontheboard.IfabetisplacedIhopethehorsewillnotwin
because I want to keep the punters stake money. Thepuntersstakemoney is mypotential
profit.
DONTbeconfusedbyaLAYrequestappearingundertheBACKarea.IwanttoLAYahorse
to LOSE but the Odds in the LAY area are not to my liking, so I am asking for someone to
acceptmybetatOddsIwant.ThinkaboutitforasecondIwantthehorsetoLOSEbutanyone
lookingforahorsetoWINwillbelookingundertheBACKareaforhorsesatacceptableodds.
21
TradingScenarios
HaveIstartedtoTradeyet?
Notinthetruemeaningoftheword.
If you have BACKED a horse to WIN you have done nothing more than use a Betting
ExchangeasyouwouldatraditionalBookmaker,althoughitwillprobablybeatbetterodds.
IfyouhaveLAYEDahorsetoLOSEthenyouhavebecomeaBookmaker.
This manual aims to bring BACKING & LAYING together, to generate No Lose and
"GuaranteedProfitsituations.Thismaybedoneinthefollowingways:
BuyOddsasLowaspossibleandthenSellthoseOddsataHigherValue
SellOddsataHighValueandthenBuythoseOddsataLowerValue(this isequivalent
tothefuturesmarketwhereaFuturesTraderwillsellsomethingatacertainprice,hoping
thatwhenhecomestobuy,thepriceisbelowhissellingprice).
BuyingOddsisthesameasLAYING.
SellingOddsisthesameasBACKING.
Howisthisdone?
Over the next few chapters I will go through a number of Trading scenarios where you will
learnhowto:
1. BACKfirst,thenLAYforGuaranteedProfitTarget
2. BACKfirst,thenLAYtoproduceaNoLosesituationifhorseWINS,andaProfitTarget
ifhorseLOSES
3. BACK first, then LAY to produce a NoLose situation if horse LOSES, and a Profit
TargetifhorseWINS
4. LAYfirst,thenBACKforGuaranteedProfitTarget
5. LAYfirst,thenBACKtoproduceaNoLosesituationifhorseWINS,andaProfitTarget
ifhorseLOSES
6. LAY first, then BACK to produce a NoLose situation if horse LOSES, and a Profit
TargetifhorseWINS
TheabovescenarioswillshowyouhowtoplaceyouroriginalBACKorLAYbet,andhowto
calculate the Odds and Stake required for an opposing BACK or LAY bet, to achieve a set
ProfitTargetoraNoLosesituation.
Analternativetotheabove istodeterminewhatprofitscould be madeatany moment intime
after placing your original BACK or LAY bet. You may not wish to set a Profit Target. For
example,youmayplaceaBACKBETwiththeanticipationthatLAYODDSwilldecreasetoa
22
suitable level below that at which you accepted the BACK ODDS. You intend to monitor the
LAYODDSbecauseyouarenotsurehowtheyaregoingtobehave,andatanymomentintime
you may wish to calculate what Guaranteed Profit, if any, is achievable using the currently
displayedLAYODDS.
Twoadditionalscenariosaretherefore:
7. BACK first, then determine what Guaranteed Profit, if any, is achievable using the
currentlydisplayedLAYODDS
8. LAYfirst,thendeterminewhatGuaranteedProfit,ifany,isachievableusingthecurrently
displayedBACKODDS
I must confess that I do cheat a little with my calculationsI use a
spreadsheet.
If you have use of a spreadsheet you can find the layout and formulae
foreachscenarioatthebackofthismanual.
IMPORTANT:
Although the chapters explaining each scenario may appear repetitive, I advise you to read
eachinturntosatisfyyourselfthatyouunderstandtheprinciplesinvolved.Theremaybetimes
whenyoudontknow whetheryouarecomingorgoing.Ifthesetimesdooccur,thenreadand
readagain.Itisimportanttoestablishwhichsideofthebettingarenayouareoperatingfromat
anygivenmoment.Itmayappearobvious,butyou mustnotmakethemistakeofLAYINGwhen
youintendedtobeBACKING,andvisaversaandalwaysbeverycarefulwhenLAYING.There
are probably a lot of users of the Betting Exchanges who have placed a LAY bet for the first
time, little realising the payout they will have to make if they lose or should I say if the
contestantonwhichtheyhaveplacedaLAYbetwins.
23
Scenario1
BACKfirst,thenLAYforGuaranteedProfitTarget
ToPROFITfromthismethodyouMUSTbeabletopickahorsewhichyouthinkwillhaveits
LAYODDSshortencomparedtotheBACKODDSatwhichyoutakeyourBACKBET.After
thatyouwontcarewhichhorsewinsorwhichhorseslose.
Lets work through an example. (I shall be overwriting a lot of the figures on the Betfair
screenshotswithhypotheticalfigurestodemonstratetheprinciplesinvolved.Someofthefigures
maybeexaggeratedtoshowapoint).
The BACK BET is placed early in the day to give the LAY ODDS time to move in my
favour.(Thisismypreferenceyoumaydecidetostarttradingatadifferenttime).
The Odds are reasonable atthis time, and Ithink the LAY ODDS will move in my favour, so
Im going to BACK to WIN using the displayed Odds, but Im only going to take 20 of the
28onoffer.ISUBMITandCONFIRMmybetandthebetismatched.
Asthingsstand,Iamleftwithoneofthefollowingpossibilities:
PellaWINStheraceandImakeaPROFITof190.
PellaLOSEStheraceandIlosemyStakeMoneyof20
Amountwillchangeto8
oncemybetismatchedand
providednooneelseis
postingatthesametimeas
me.
(Original28lessmyStakeof
20)
10.5 190 Pella
YouarebackingPella
24
What I am looking for now is forthe LAY ODDS against Pellato shorten (comein) sothat I
canLAYthedecreasedOddstoproduceaGuaranteedProfitTargetsituationnomatterwhat
theresultoftheraceturnsouttobe.Obviously,theLAYODDSwillhavetoshortentoalevel
which will generate my required profit. Once I know whatthe LAY ODDS and Stake need to
be,Icanaskforthemandwaittoseeiftheyarematched.ClosertotheeventIwillchecktosee
if anyone has matched my LAY BET, and if there have not been any takers, I may decide to
lowermyProfitTarget.
There may betimeswhen itis impossibletoplaceaLAYBETtoproduceaprofitbecausethe
LAY ODDS have not moved in your favour. This may result in having to leave the original
BACKBETtorideitscourse,hopingthatthehorsewillWIN.Alternatively,ifthereisnosign
of the LAY ODDS falling below the original BACK ODDS as the start of the event draws
closer,butthedifference is nottoogreat,you maydecidetotradeoutof yourBACKBETby
placingaLAYBETatcurrentodds,andtakeasmallloss.
Itisalsopossibletomonitortheoddsastheraceisinprogress(inrunning).Theychangevery
quickly,andtheoddsandstakeyourequiremayappear.
What do the LAYODDS and Stakeneedto be to produce a Guaranteed Profit Target
situation?
Takealookatthetablebelow:
Thetablehasbeenfilledinwithknownfacts.IhaveaBACKBETwhichiscurrentlyactiveand
I now wish to place a LAY BETtotrade myself into a Guaranteed Profit Target situation. I
know that if I leave things as they are and Pella WINS, I will make a profit of 190. On the
other hand, if Pella LOSES, I will have lost my 20 stake. Therefore, to trade myself into a
GuaranteedProfitTargetpositionIneedtoestablishwhattheLAYODDSandStakeneedto
betoproducemyProfitTarget.
ImgoingtosetmyProfitTargetat20.
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

LAY
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
25
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

LAY 5.25 40.00 40.00 170.00
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
After setting my Profit Target at
20.00,InowknowthatmyPotential
Payout from a LAY BET can be no
more than 170.00 (Potential Profit
from BACK BET of 190.00 less
ProfitTargetof20.00).
Icanenterthis170.00intomytable
inthePotentialPayoutforLAYING.
20.00IknowthatanyPotentialProfit
frommyLAYBETneedstobe40.00
(BACK BET Stake of 20.00 plus
20.00ProfitTarget).
Icanenterthis40.00intomytablein
the Stake for LAYING and Potential
ProfitforLAYING.
Theonlythinglefttodonow,istocalculatetheLAY
ODDSIwillbeaskingfor.
ThisissimplyamatterofdividingthePotentialPayout
bytheStake,andaddingone.
(DontforgetEuropeanDecimalOddsincludetheStake)
(17040)+1=5.25
26
Pella
WINS
Winningsfrom
BACKBET
190.00
Payoutfrom
LAYBET
170.00
NetProfit
20.00
=
Pella
LOSES
Stakefrom
LAYBET
40.00
Stakefrom
BACKBET
20.00
NetProfit
20.00
=
RACERESULT
BackingoutofmyoriginalBACKBETbyplacingaLAYBETatlowerrequiredoddsand
appropriateStakeputsmeintoaGuaranteedProfitTargetsituation.Idontcarewhat
theresultoftheraceturnsouttobe.
IfPellaWINSIwillhavetopayout170.00tothepersonwhohasplacedabetwithme,
butontheotherhand,Iwillmakeaprofitof190.00frommyBACKBETanetresult
of20.00Profit.
IfPellaLOSESthenIkeepthe40.00StakeMoneywhichsomeonehasbetwithme.
This40.00,lessthe20.00IstakedonPellatoWIN,givesmeanetprofitof20.00
ThisisaWIN,WINsituation.
27
Scenario2
BACKfirst,thenLAYtoproduceaNoLosesituationifhorseWINS,anda
ProfitTargetifhorseLOSES
To PROFIT from this method you MUST be able to pick a horse which you think will LOSE
andwhereyouthinkLAYODDSwillshortentoalowerlevelthantheBACKODDSatwhich
youtakeyourBACKBET.
The Odds are reasonable atthis time, and Ithinkthe LAY ODDS will move in my favour, so
ImgoingtoBACKtoWINusingthedisplayedOdds,butImonlygoingtotake20ofthe28
onoffer.ISUBMITandCONFIRMmybetandthebetismatched.
Amountwillchangeto8
providednooneispostingat
thesametimeasme.
(Original28lessBackers
Stakeof20)
10.5 190 Pella
YouarebackingPella
28
What I am looking for now is forthe LAY ODDS against Pellato shorten (comein) sothatI
can LAY the decreased Odds to produce a PROFIT situation if he LOSES and a NO LOSE
situation if he WINS. Obviously, the LAY ODDS will have to shorten to a level which will
generatemyrequiredprofit.OnceIknowwhattheLAYODDSneedtobe,Icanaskforthese
oddsandwaitandseeiftheyarematched.ClosertotheeventIwillchecktoseeifanyonehas
matched myLAYBET,and iftherehavenotbeenanytakers,ImaydecidetolowerbyProfit
Target.
There may betimeswhen it is impossibletoplaceaLAYBETtoproduceaPROFITandNO
LOSE situation because the LAY ODDS have not moved in your favour. This may result in
having to leave the original BACK BET to ride its course, hoping that the horse will WIN.
Alternatively,ifthereisnosignoftheLAYODDSfallingbelowtheoriginalBACKODDSas
the start of the event draws closer, but the difference is not too great, you may decide to
tradeoutofyourBACKBETbyplacingaLAYBETatcurrentodds,andtakeasmallloss.
Itisalsopossibletomonitortheoddsastheraceis inprogress(inrunning).Theychangevery
What do the LAY ODDS and Stake need to be to produce a PROFIT/NO LOSE
situation?
InowwishtoplaceaLAYBETtotrademyselfintoaPROFITsituationifPellaLOSES,anda
NO LOSE situation if Pella WINS. I knowthat if I leave things asthey are and Pella WINS I
will make a profitof 190. Onthe other hand, ifPella LOSES, I will have lost my 20 stake.
Therefore,totrade myself into a PROFITor a NO LOSE position I needto establish whatthe
LAYODDSandStakeneedtobetoproducemyTarget.
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

LAY
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
29
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

LAY 5.75 40.00 40.00 190.00
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
To produce a NO LOSE situation if
the horse WINS I need my Potential
Payoutfrom my LAYBETtobethe
sameas myPotentialProfitfrom my
BACKBET.
Thisis190.00
20.00IknowthatanyPotentialProfit
from my LAY BET needs to be
40.00 (BACK BET Stake of 20.00
plus20.00ProfitTarget).
Icanenterthis40.00intomytablein
the Stake for LAYING and Potential
ProfitforLAYING.
Theonlythinglefttodonow,istocalculatethe
LAYODDSIwillbeaskingfor.
ThisissimplyamatterofdividingthePotential
PayoutbytheStake,andaddingone.
(DontforgetEuropeanDecimalOddsincludethe
Stake)
(19040)+1=5.75
30
PellaWINS
Winningsfrom
BACKBET
190.00
Payoutfrom
LAYBET
190.00
NetProfit
NIL
=
PellaLOSES
Stakefrom
LAYBET
40.00
Stakefrom
BACKBET
20.00
NetProfit
20.00
=
RACERESULT
appropriateamountputsmeintoaNoLosesituation.
butontheotherhandIwillmakeaprofitof190.00frommyBACKBETanetresult
ofNILProfit.
IfPellaLOSES,asIhopedhewould,thenIkeepthe40.00StakeMoneywhich
someonehasbetwithme.This40.00,lessthe20.00IstakedonPellatoWIN,givesme
anetprofitof20.00
Eitherway,Idontloseapenny.
31
Scenario3
BACKfirst,thenLAYtoproduceaNoLosesituationifhorseLOSES,anda
ProfitTargetifhorseWINS
ToPROFITfromthismethodyouMUSTbeabletopickahorsethatyouthinkwillWINarace
andwhereyouthinkLAYODDSwillshortentoalowerlevelthantheBACKODDSatwhich
youtakeyourBACKBET.
screenshots with hypothetical figures to demonstrate the principles involved. Some of the fig
uresmaybeexaggeratedtoshowapoint).
Amountwillchangeto8
providednooneelseis
postingatthesametimeas
me.
(Original28lessmyStakeof
20)
10.5 190 Pella
YouarebackingPella
32
can LAY the decreased Odds to produce a NO LOSE situation if he LOSES and a PROFIT
situation if he WINS. Obviously, the LAY ODDS will have to shorten to a level which will
generatemyrequiredprofit.OnceIknowwhattheLAYODDSandStakeneedtobe,Icanask
forthem and waitto see if they are matched. Closertothe event I will check to see if anyone
has matched my LAY BET, and if there have not been any takers, I may decide to lower by
ProfitTarget.
There may betimeswhen it is impossibletoplaceaLAYBETtoproduceaPROFITandNO
LOSE situation because the LAY ODDS have not moved in your favour. This may result in
having to leave the original BACK BET to ride its course, hoping that the horse will WIN.
Alternatively,ifthereisnosignoftheLAYODDSfallingbelowtheoriginalBACKODDSas
the start of the event draws closer, but the difference is not too great, you may decide to
tradeoutofyourBACKBETbyplacingaLAYBETatcurrentodds,andtakeasmallloss.
What do the LAY ODDS and Stake need to be to produce a PROFIT/NO LOSE
situation?
The table has been filled in with known facts. I have a BACK BET which is currently active
andInowwishtoplaceaLAYBETtotrademyselfintoaPROFIToraNOLOSEsituation.I
know that if I leave things as they are and Pella WINS I will make a profit of 190. On the
other hand, if Pella LOSES, I will have lost my 20 stake. Therefore, to trade myself into a
PROFIToraNOLOSEpositionIneedtoestablishwhattheLAYODDSandStakeneedtobe
toproducemyTarget.
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

LAY
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
33
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

LAY 9.50 20.00 20.00 170.00
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
20.00,InowknowthatmyPotential
Payout from a LAY BET can be no
more than 170.00 (Potential Profit
from BACK BET of 190.00 less
ProfitTargetof20.00).
ToproduceaNOLOSEsituation
if the horse LOSES I need my
LAY BET Stake to be the same
asmyBACKBETStake
Thisis20.00
I can enter this 20.00 into my
table in the Stake and Potential
ProfitforLAYING.
PayoutbytheStake,andaddingone.
Stake)
(17020)+1=9.50
34
PellaWINS
Winningsfrom
BACKBET
190.00
Payoutfrom
LAYBET
170
NetProfit
20.00
PellaLOSES
Stakefrom
LAYBET
20.00
Stakefrom
BACKBET
20.00
NetProfit
NIL
RACERESULT
appropriateStakeputsmeintoaNoLosesituation.
IfPellaWINS,asIhopedhewould,Iwillhavetopayout170.00tothepersonwhohas
placedabetwithme,butontheotherhandIwillmakeaprofitof190.00frommy
BACKBETanetresultof20.00Profit.
IfPellaLOSES,Ikeepthe20.00StakeMoneywhichsomeonehasbetwithme.This
20.00,lessthe20.00IstakedonPellatoWIN,givesmeanetprofitofNIL.
=
=
35
Scenario4
LAYfirst,thenBACKforGuaranteedProfitTarget
ToPROFITfromthis methodyouMUSTbeabletopickahorsewhich youthinkwill have its
BACK ODDS increase compared tothe LAY ODDS at which youtake your LAY BET. After
thatyouwontcarewhowinsorwholoses.
The LAY BET is placed early in the day to give the BACK ODDS time to move in my
TheOddsarereasonableatthistime,andIthinktheBACKODDSwillmoveinmyfavour,so
ImgoingtoLAYtoLOSEusingthedisplayedOdds,butImonlygoingtotake20ofthe40
SunsetMirageLOSEStheraceandIkeeptheBackersStakeof20asPROFIT.
Sunset Mirage WINS the race and I have to pay the Backer 180 (the Backer keeps his
StakeMoney)Alosstomeof180
180
SunsetMirage
10 180
Amountwillchangeto20
thesametimeasme.
Stakeof20)
YouarebettingagainstSunsetMirage
180
36
WhatIamlookingfornowisfortheBACKODDSagainstSunsetMirage toincrease(goout)
so that I can BACK the increased Odds to produce a Guaranteed Profit Target situation no
matter what the result of the race turns out to be. Obviously, the BACK ODDS will have to
increasetoalevelwhichwillgeneratemyrequiredprofit.OnceIknowwhattheBACKODDS
andStakeneedtobe,Icanaskforthemandwaittoseeiftheyarematched.Closertotheevent
IwillchecktoseeifanyonehasmatchedmyBACKBET,andiftherehavenotbeenanytakers,
ImaydecidetolowermyProfitTarget.
TheremaybetimeswhenitisimpossibletoplaceaBACKBETtoproduceaprofitbecausethe
BACK ODDS have not moved in your favour. This may result in having to leave the original
LAYBETtoride itscourse,hopingthatthehorsewillLOSE.Alternatively, ifthereisnosign
oftheBACKODDSincreasingabovetheoriginal LAYODDS,asthestartoftheeventdraws
closer, but the difference is not too great, you may decide to tradeout of your LAY BET by
placingaBACKBETatcurrentodds,andtakeasmallloss.
WhatdotheBACKODDSandStakeneedtobetoproduceaGuaranteedProfitTarget
situation?
Thetablehasbeenfilledinwithknownfacts.IhaveaLAYBETwhichiscurrentlyactiveandI
now wishto place a BACK BETtotrade myself into a Guaranteed Profit Target situation. I
knowthatifIleavethingsastheyareandSunsetMirageLOSESIwillmakeaprofitof20.On
theotherhand, ifSunsetMirage WINS,Iwill havetopayout180.Therefore,totrademyself
intoaGuaranteedProfitTargetpositionIneedtoestablishwhattheBACKODDSandStake
needtobetoproducemyProfitTarget.
Im going to set my Profit Target at 10. I cannot set my Profit Target any higher than LAY
BETStake.
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

BACK NIL
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
37
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

BACK 20.00 10.00 190.00 NIL
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
10.00,InowknowthatmyBack
Stake has to be 10.00 (Potential
Profit from LAY BET of 20.00
lessProfitTargetof10.00)
tableintheStakeforBACKING.
10.00 I know that any Potential
ProfitfrommyBACKBETneeds
to be 190.00 (LAY BET Poten
tial Payout of 180.00 plus
10.00ProfitTarget).
table in the Potential Profit for
BACKING.
ProfitbytheStake,andaddingone.
Stake)
(19010)+1=20.00
38
SunsetMirage
WINS
Winningsfrom
BACKBET
190
Payoutfrom
LAYBET
180
NetProfit
10.00
=
SunsetMirage
LOSES
Stakefrom
LAYBET
20
Stakefrom
BACKBET
10
NetProfit
10.00
=
RACERESULT
BackingoutofmyoriginalLAYBETbyplacingaBACKBETathigherrequiredodds
andappropriateStakeputsmeintoaGuaranteedProfitTargetsituation.Idontcare
whattheresultoftheraceturnsouttobe.
IfSunsetMirageWINSIwillhavetopayout180.00tothepersonwhohasplacedabet
withme,butontheotherhand,Iwillmakeaprofitof190.00frommyBACKbetanet
resultof10.00Profit.
IfSunsetMirageLOSESthenIkeepthe20.00StakeMoneywhichsomeonehasbet
withme.This20.00,lessthe10.00IstakedonSunsetMiragetoWIN,givesmeanet
profitof10.00
39
Scenario5
LAYfirst,thenBACKtoproduceaNoLosesituationifhorseWINS,anda
ProfitTargetifhorseLOSES
To PROFIT from this method you MUST be ableto pick a horse which youthink will LOSE
and where you think BACK ODDS will increase to a higher level than the LAY ODDS at
whichyoutakeyourLAYBET.
screenshots with hypothetical figures to demonstrate the principles involved. Some of the
figuresmaybeexaggeratedtoshowapoint).
SunsetMirage
10 180
thesametimeasme.
Stakeof20)
180
40
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

BACK NIL
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
so that I can BACK the increased Odds to produce a NO LOSE situation if he WINS and a
PROFIT situation if he LOSES. Obviously, the BACK ODDS will have to increase to a level
whichwillgeneratemyrequiredprofit.OnceIknowwhattheBACKODDSandStakeneedto
ifanyonehas matched myBACKBET,andiftherehave notbeenanytakers,Imaydecideto
TheremaybetimeswhenitisimpossibletoplaceaBACKBETtoproduceaPROFITandNO
LOSE situation because the BACK ODDS have not moved in your favour. This may result in
having to leave the original LAY BET to ride its course, hoping that the horse will LOSE.
Alternatively, if there is no sign of the BACK ODDS increasing above the original LAY
ODDS,asthestartoftheeventdrawscloser,butthedifferenceisnottoogreat,youmaydecide
totradeoutofyourLAYBETbyplacingaBACKBETatcurrentodds,andtakeasmallloss.
What do the BACK ODDS and Stake need to be to produce a PROFIT/NO LOSE
situation?
now wish to place a BACK BET to trade myself into a PROFIT or a NO LOSE situation. I
knowthat if I leave things as they are and Sunset Mirage LOSES I will make a profit of 20.
Ontheotherhand, ifSunsetMirageWINS,Iwillhavetopayout180tothepersonwhohas
placedabetwithme.Therefore,totrademyselfintoaPROFIToraNOLOSEpositionIneed
toestablishwhattheBACKODDSandStakeneedtobetoproducemyTarget.
BETStake.
41
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

BACK 19.00 10.00 180.00 NIL
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
10.00,InowknowthatmyBack
Stake has to be 10.00 (Potential
Profit from LAY BET of 20.00
lessProfitTargetof10.00)
tableintheStakeforBACKING.
Potential Profit from my BACK
BET to be the same as my
Potential Payout from my LAY
BET.
Thisis180.00
BACKING.
BACKODDSIwillbeaskingfor.
Stake)
(18010)+1=19.00
42
andappropriateStakeputsmeintoaNoLosesituation.
withme,butontheotherhandIwillmakeaprofitof180.00frommyBACKBETa
netresultofNILProfit.
IfSunsetMirageLOSES,asIhopedhewould,thenIkeepthe20.00StakeMoney
whichsomeonehasbetwithme.This20.00,lessthe10.00IstakedonSunsetMirage
toWIN,givesmeanetprofitof10.00
SunsetMirage
WINS
Winningsfrom
BACKBET
180.00
Payoutfrom
LAYBET
180.00
NetProfit
NIL
=
SunsetMirage
LOSES
Stakefrom
LAYBET
20.00
Stakefrom
BACKBET
10.00
NetProfit
10.00
=
RACERESULT
43
Scenario6
LAYfirst,thenBACKtoproduceaNoLosesituationifhorseLOSES,anda
ProfitTargetifhorseWINS
ToPROFITfromthismethodyouMUSTbeabletopickahorsewhichyouthinkwillWINand
whereyouthinkBACKODDSwillincreasetoahigherlevelthantheLAYODDSatwhichyou
takeyourLAYBET.
SunsetMirage
10 180
thesametimeasme.
Stakeof20)
180
44
so that I can BACK the increased Odds to produce a NO LOSE situation if he LOSES and a
PROFIT situation if he WINS. Obviously, the BACK ODDS will have to increase to a level
whichwillgeneratemyrequiredprofit.OnceIknowwhattheBACKODDSandStakeneedto
if anyone has matched my BACKBET,and iftherehave notbeenanytakers,I maydecideto
TheremaybetimeswhenitisimpossibletoplaceaBACKBETtoproduceaPROFITandNO
LOSE situation because the BACK ODDS have not moved in your favour. This may result in
having to leave the original LAY BET to ride its course, hoping that the horse will LOSE.
Alternatively,ifthereisnosignoftheBACKODDSincreasingabovetheoriginalLAYODDS,
as the start of the event draws closer, but the difference is not too great, you may decide to
tradeoutofyourLAYBETbyplacingaBACKBETatcurrentodds,andtakeasmallloss.
Itisalsopossibletomonitortheoddsastheraceis inprogress(inrunning).Theychangevery
What do the BACK ODDS and Stake need to be to produce a PROFIT/NO LOSE
situation?
now wish to place a BACK BET to trade myself into a PROFIT or a NO LOSE situation. I
knowthatifIleavethingsastheyareandSunsetMirageLOSESIwillmakeaprofitof20.On
the other hand, if Sunset Mirage WINS, I will have to pay out 180 to the person who has
placedabetwith me. Therefore,totrademyself intoaPROFIToraNOLOSEpositionIneed
toestablishwhattheBACKODDSandStakeneedtobetoproducemyTarget.
BETStake.
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

BACK NIL
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
45
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
BACKBETStaketobethesame
asmyLAYBETStake
Thisis20.00
tableintheStakeforBACKING
10.00, I now know that my
Potential Profit from a BACK
BET has to be 190.00 (Potential
Payout from LAY BET of
180.00 plus Profit Target of
10.00).
LAYING.
BACKODDSIwillbeaskingfor.
Stake)
(19020)+1=10.5
46
andappropriateStakeputsmeintoaNoLosesituation.
IfSunsetMirageWINS,asIhopedhewould,Iwillhavetopayout180.00totheper
sonwhohasplacedabetwithme,butontheotherhandIwillmakeaprofitof190.00
frommyBACKBETanetresultof10.00Profit.
IfSunsetMirageLOSES,thenIkeepthe20.00StakeMoneywhichsomeonehasbet
withme.This20.00,lessthe20.00IstakedonSunsetMiragetoWIN,givesmeanet
profitofNIL
SunsetMirage
WINS
Winningsfrom
BACKBET
190.00
Payoutfrom
LAYBET
180.00
NetProfit
10.00
=
SunsetMirage
LOSES
Stakefrom
LAYBET
20.00
Stakefrom
BACKBET
20.00
NetProfit
NIL
=
RACERESULT
47
Scenario7
BACKfirst,thendeterminewhatGuaranteedProfit,ifany,isachievableusingthecur
rentlydisplayedLAYODDS
LAYODDSshortencomparedtotheBACKODDSatwhichyoutakeyourBACKBET.After
Amountwillchangeto8
thesametimeasme.
Stakeof20)
10.5 190 Pella
YouarebackingPella
48
can LAY the decreased Odds to produce a Guaranteed Profit situation no matter what the
result of the race turns out to be. Obviously, the LAY ODDS will have to shorten to a level
which will generate my required profit. I intend to monitor the LAY ODDS and take depth
gaugereadingsonaregularbasisandcalculatehowmuchprofit,ifany,Icanmake.Atapoint
where I dont think LAY ODDS will move any more in my favour I can determine if a
satisfactoryprofitisachievable.
There may betimeswhen itis impossibletoplaceaLAYBETtoproduceaPROFITsituation
becausetheLAYODDShavenotmovedinyourfavour.Thismayresultinhavingtoleavethe
originalBACKBETtorideitscourse,hopingthatthehorsewillWIN.Alternatively,ifthereis
no sign of the LAY ODDS falling below the original BACK ODDS, as the start of the event
draws closer, but the difference is not too great, you may decide to tradeout of your BACK
BETbyplacingaLAYBETatcurrentodds,andtakeasmallloss.
WhatGuaranteedProfitcanIachieveatthecurrentLAYODDS?
ImaginethatLAYODDShavedroppedto7.50
I now wish to place a LAY BET to trade myself into a Guaranteed Profit situation. I know
thatifIleavethingsastheyareandPellaWINSIwillmakeaprofitof190.Ontheotherhand,
if PellaLOSES,Iwillhavelostmy20stake.
Therefore,totrademyselfintoaGuaranteedProfitsituation,IneedtoestablishwhattheLAY
Stakeneedstobe.
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

LAY 7.50
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
49
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

LAY 7.50 28.00 28.00 182.00
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
PotentialPayoutfrommyLAYBET
wouldbe182.00(Oddsof7.50less1
multipliedbyLAYStakeof28.00)
IcannowcalculatetheStakerequiredtogivemetheguaranteedprofit,ifany,Ican
achieveusingthecurrentLAYODDSforPella.
LayStake=(BackStake(LayOddsBackOdds))
=(20.00(7.5010.50))
=28.00
50
Pella
WINS
Winningsfrom
BACKBET
190.00
Payoutfrom
LAYBET
182.00
NetProfit
8.00
=
Pella
LOSES
Stakefrom
LAYBET
28.00
Stakefrom
BACKBET
20.00
NetProfit
8.00
=
RACERESULT
BackingoutofmyoriginalBACKBETbyplacingaLAYBETatoddsof7.50anda
Stakeof28.00putsmeintoaGuaranteedProfitsituation.Idontcarewhatthere
sultoftheraceturnsouttobe.
butontheotherhand,Iwillmakeaprofitof190.00frommyBACKBETanetresult
of8.00Profit.
IfPellaLOSESthenIkeepthe28.00StakeMoneywhichsomeonehasbetwithme.This
28.00,lessthe20.00IstakedonPellatoWIN,givesmeanetprofitof8.00
51
Scenario8
LAYfirst,thendeterminewhatGuaranteedProfit,ifany,isachievableusingthecur
rentlydisplayedBACKOdds
BACKODDS increasecomparedtotheLAYODDSatwhich youtakeyourLAYBET.After
10
SunsetMirage 180
thesametimeasme.
Stakeof20)
180
10
52
sothat I can BACK the increased Odds to produce a Guaranteed Profit situation no matter
whattheresultoftheraceturnsouttobe.Obviously,theBACKODDSwillhavetoshortento
a level which will generate my profit. I intend to monitor the BACK ODDS and take depth
gaugereadingsonaregularbasisandcalculatehowmuchprofit,ifany,Icanmake.Atapoint
whereIdontthinkBACKODDSwillmoveanymoreinmyfavourIcandetermineifasatis
factoryprofitisachievable.
TheremaybetimeswhenitisimpossibletoplaceaBACKBETtoproduceaPROFITsituation
because the BACK ODDS have not moved in your favour. This may result in having to leave
theoriginalLAYBETtorideitscourse,hopingthatthehorsewillLOSE.Alternatively,ifthere
is no sign of the BACK ODDS increasing above the original LAY ODDS, as the start of the
eventdrawscloser,butthedifferenceisnottoogreat,youmaydecidetotradeoutofyourLAY
BETbyplacingaBACKBETatcurrentodds,andtakeasmallloss.
WhatGuaranteedProfitcanIachieveatthecurrentBACKOdds?
ImaginethatBACKOddshaveincreasedto14.00
now wish to place a BACK BET to trade myself into a Guaranteed Profit situation. I know
thatifIleavethingsastheyareandSunsetMirageLOSESIwill makeaprofitof20.Onthe
otherhand,ifSunsetMirageWINS,Iwillhavetopayout180tothepersonwhohasplaceda
betwithme.
Therefore, to trade myself into a Guaranteed Profit situation, I need to establish what the
BACKStakeneedstobe.
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

BACK 14.00 NIL
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
53
IcannowcalculatetheStakerequiredtogivemetheguaranteedprofit,ifany,Ican
achieveusingthecurrentBACKODDSforPella.
BackStake=(LayStake(BackOddsLayOdds))
=(20.00(14.0010.00))
=14.29
PotentialProfitfrommyBACKBet
wouldbe185.77(Oddsof14.00less1
multipliedbyBACKStakeof14.29)
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
Potential
Payout
LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

BACK 14.00 14.29 185.77 NIL
CURRENTBET
PROPOSEDBET
54
SunsetMirage
WINS
Winningsfrom
BACKBet
185.77
Payoutfrom
LAYBet
180.00
NetProfit
5.77
=
SunsetMirage
LOSES
Stakefrom
LAYBet
20.00
Stakefrom
BACKBet
14.29
NetProfit
5.71
=
RACERESULT
BackingoutofmyoriginalLAYBetbyplacingaBACKBETatoddsof14.00anda
Stakeof14.29putsmeintoaGuaranteedProfitsituation.Idontcarewhatthere
sultoftheraceturnsouttobe.
withme,butontheotherhand,Iwillmakeaprofitof185.77frommyBACKbetanet
resultof5.77Profit.
IfSunsetMirageLOSESthenIkeepthe20.00StakeMoneywhichsomeonehasbetwith
me.This20.00lessthe14.29IstakedonSunsetMiragetoWIN,givesmeanetprofit
of5.71
Theremaymeoccasionswhenyougetafewpencedifferenceinyourcalculationsdue
torounding.
55
TradeKeeper
Whenyoustarttradingtherewillbeoccasionswhenyourbetsarenotmatchedatallandocca
sionswhenonlypartofyourbetsarematched.Tradingcanbegintolookalittlemessy.Tohelp
outwithsuchcircumstancesIhavepreparedasimpleTradeKeeperspreadsheetusingMicrosoft
Excelwhich youcanfindonthefloppydiscwhichcomeswiththispackage.If youdonthave
MicrosoftExcelbutyouareinpossessionofanotherspreadsheetyoucanadapttheformulasto
meet your requirements. You might even wish to devise a more sophisticated way of tracking
yourtradingactivities.
BycompletingtheTablewithyourBACK/LAYbetsastheyarematchedonBetfairandenter
inganybetsyouareproposingtomake,youwillbeabletoreadoffyourpotentialProfit/(Loss),
excludinganyBetfaircommissionpayment,atthebottomoftheTable.
I
n
p
u
t
A
r
e
a
I
n
p
u
t
A
r
e
a
56
SpreadsheetFormulaLayout:
57
CrossTrading
UpuntilnowIhavebeenusingBetfairforBACKtoWINandLAYtoLOSEtrading.
Itispossible,however,touseotherBettingExchangesandeventraditionalBookmakers,toset
upcrosstradesituations.
WhywouldIwishtocrosstrade?
Odds disparity amongst the various betting facilities can often produce instant trading
possibilities. It is often the case that the early bird can spot a favourable difference in odds,
betweensites,beforethemarketsettlesdown.
E.g.
TheBACKODDSonBetfairmaybehigherthantheLAYODDSdisplayedononeofthe
otherBettingExchanges.
The BACK ODDS available with a traditional Bookmaker (they do not have LAY
ODDS)maybehigherthantheLAYODDSdisplayedonaBettingExchange.
IadvisetheuseofahighspeedInternetconnectionatalltimeswhentrading,andthisadviceis
even more pertinent when crosstrading. You must also familiarise yourself with the way each
account you have operates. Speed is very important. Whilst placing a bet with one account,
youmayhavemissedtheboatwhenyoucometotradeoffonanother.
BettingExchangesyoumaywishtoconsiderare:
Betfair(www.betfair.com)
BetdaqRacing(www.betdaq.co.uk)
SportingOptions(www.sportingoptions.co.uk)
IbetX (www.ibetx.com)
MyBetYourBet(www.mybetyourbet.com)
Intrade(www.intrade.com)
TradeBetX(www.tradebetx.com)
BetsOn(www.betsson.com)
YoumayalsowishtousetraditionalBookmakersforyourBACKtoWINsideofyourtrade:
WilliamHill(www.williamhill.com)
Ladbrokes(www.ladbrokes.com)
Coral(www.coral.co.uk)
PaddyPower(www.paddypower.com)
SportingOdds(www.sportingodds.com)
VictorChandler(www.victorchandler.com)
58
When using a single Betting Exchange for your trading, keeping track of matched and
unmatchedbetsisquitestraightforward.WhenusingBetfair,forexample,alistofyourbetscan
beviewedthrough myaccount>currentbets.
However, if you are crosstrading, things can become a little cumbersome if you are keeping
trackofbetsbyflippingaroundthesites.Inthisinstanceyouareadvisedtokeepalistofyour
betsina moremethodical format,whereyoucanquicklyestablish yourtradingpositionatany
giventime.YoumaywishtomodifythespreadsheetinthechapterheadedupTraderKeeperto
listthevariousBettingExchanges/Bookmakersused.
59
AFewPointers
HowdoesatraditionalBookmakermakeaprofit?
OverroundandOverbroke
Addinguptheprobabilitiesasshownbytheoddsofalltheparticipantsinaneventfora
particularBookmakergivesapercentage.Whilemathematicallythetotalprobabilitiesofall
participantsinaneventmustbe100%(oneparticipantandonlyonecanwin)Book
makerstotalpercentagesaresettoadduptoover100%becauseitstheamountover
100%thatrepresentsthebookmakersprofit.Abookwithatotalpercentageover100is
calledoverround.Abookthataddsuptolessthan100%iscalledoverbrokewhichmeans
thatapuntercouldbackalltheparticipantsandknowthatthetotaloftheirloststakeswill
belessthantheirwinnings.
Letmeexplain:
Odds %
HorseA 2.0 50.0(12x100)
HorseB4.0 25.0 (14x100)
HorseC 5.0 20.0(15x100)
HorseD 6.016.7(16x100)
Total111.7
InthisexampletheBookmakerhasasoverroundof11.7%
If youbetonevery horseyoucouldnotwin.Yourtotalstakemoney wouldbehigherthanany
winningsyoucouldreceivefromanyoneofthehorseswinning.Inotherwordsyouwouldhave
tostakeatotalof111.70towin100.Thelowertheoverroundthebetteritisforthepunter.
Ifthetotalequivalentpercentageaddsuptolessthan100%thenapuntercouldbackeachcon
testantwithaguaranteedprofitwhicheverhorsewins.
BettingExchangesarenotinthesamepositionastraditionalBookmakersandtheydonothave
tomakethesameprofits.ItisforthisreasonthattheoverroundonBettingExchangesislower
andoffersbettervaluetothepunter.
The overround shown on the Betting Exchanges can sometimes be a clue to which way odds
will change. I have seen, hours before a race, overrounds to be over 150%. As Betting
Exchanges usually perform with an overround a little over 100%, this could be an indication
thatoddswillimproveinfavouroftheBACKER.
60
Liquidity
Take a look at the amounts on offer under the BACK area. If they are a lot higher than the
amounts onoffer under the LAY area, forthe same horse,this could indicate thatthe horse is
favoured to lose. Dont forget, the odds and amounts under the BACK area are from those
wishingtotakeontheroleofBookmaker,andarehopingthehorsewilllose.
On the other hand, if the amounts onoffer under the LAY area are higher than those on offer
undertheBACKarea,forthesamehorse,thiscouldindicatethatthehorseisfavouredtowin.
Overround%
61
A2HorseRace
I dont wish to restrict this chapterto horseracing there are not enough real horse races with
just two runners to sustain us. However, the title of this chapter is appropriate to cover any
eventwherethereareonlytwocontestants,andonlyonecanwinandconversely,onlyonecan
lose.
YouhavereadthechapterA Few Pointers, andunderstood,Ihope,howaBookmakermakes
hisprofitbyapplyinganoverroundintotheoddsheoffers.
InthischapterwearegoingtoexplorethepossibilitiesofhowwecanjustBACKorjustLAY
bothcontestantsinaneventwherethereisonlyaWINorLOSEpossibility.IfweareBACK
ING,weBACKoneofthecontestantswiththeaimoftheBACKoddsontheothercontestant
moving out so that any overround is eliminated. Similar principles apply if we wish to use
LAYINGonly.
Iwilluseacricketmatchasanexampletoexplaintheprinciplesmoreclearly.
LetstakealookatBACKING.
IcannotBACKbothteamsandmakeaprofitbecausethetotalofthepercentageequivalentof
theoddsadduptomorethan100%(101.3%),butifIBACKoneofthecontestantsandthere
fore lock the odds I take, I can then wait for the odds on the other contestant to increase,
whichismyaim,toeliminateanyoverround.
BACKODDS %
Worcestershire2.0249.50(12x100)
Gloucestershire1.9351.81(11.93x100)
101.31
ImgoingtoBACKWorcestershiretoWIN.Illplace50at2.02
62
Mycurrentsituationisnow:
ThisBACK betis nowlockedinatoddsof2.02which meansthatIhavetaken49.50%ofthe
book. I now need the BACK odds for Gloucestershire to drift to a level which will give me
enough manoeuvrability to trade myself into a Guaranteed Profit or a No Lose situation by
BACKINGGloucestershire.
LetssaytheBACKoddsforGloucestershiremoveoutto2.8.Thisfiguremaybealittleexag
gerated, but Im just showing principles in this manual. The percentage equivalent of 2.8 is
35.71%.(12.8x100)
BACKODDS %
Worcestershire2.0249.50(LockedinBet)
85.21
The total percentage is now less than 100% which puts me in a very favourable position and
leavesmewithanumberofoptions:
GenerateaGuaranteedProfitnomatterwhichteamwins
GenerateaProfitsituationifWorcestershirewinandaNoLosesituationiftheylose
GenerateaProfitsituationifGloucestershirewinandaNoLosesituationiftheylose
Iwillnowgothrougheachoptionexplainingthemathsinvolvedsothatyouwillhaveanunder
standingofwhatishappening.However,likeothercalculations, youwill findspreadsheet lay
outsatthebackofthemanual.
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
CURRENTBET
BACKWorcestershire
2.02 50.00 51.00
Return
101.00
PROPOSEDBET
BACKGloucestershire
(2.02 1)x50.00 (2.02x50.00
63
GenerateaGuaranteedProfitnomatterwhichteamwins
AGuaranteedProfitof14.93hasbeengeneratednomatterwhichteamwins.
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
CURRENTBET
BACKWorcestershire
2.02 50.00 51.00
Return
101.00
PROPOSEDBET
BACKGloucestershire
2.80 36.07 64.93 101.00
IcannowcalculatetheStakerequiredtogivemeaGuaranteedProfitnomatterwhich
teamWINS.
BackStake=Returnon1stBetOddson2ndBet
=101.002.80
=36.07
PotentialProfitfromBACKINGGloucestershire
wouldbe64.93(Oddsof2.80less1multipliedbyBACK
Stakeof36.07)
Worcestershire
WIN
Winningsfrom
BACKING
Worcestershire
51.00
Stakefrom
BACKING
Gloucestershire
36.07
NetProfit
14.93
=
Gloucestershire
WIN
Winningsfrom
BACKING
Gloucestershire
64.93
Stakefrom
BACKING
Worcestershire
50.00
NetProfit
14.93
=
RESULT
2.80x36.07
64
Generate a Profit situation if Worcestershire Win and a No Lose situation if
theyLose
IfWorcestershireWINthematchaprofitof23.22willhavebeengeneratedbutiftheyLOSEI
amstillinaNoLosesituation.
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
CURRENTBET
BACKWorcestershire
2.02 50.00 51.00
Return
101.00
PROPOSEDBET
BACKGloucestershire
2.80 27.78 50.00 77.78
IcannowcalculatetheStakerequiredtogivemeaprofitifWorcestershireWINanda
NoLosesituationiftheyLOSE.
BackStake=Stakeon1stBet(Oddson2ndBet1)
=50.001.80
=27.78
Stakeof27.78)
Worcestershire
WIN
Winningsfrom
BACKING
Worcestershire
51.00
Stakefrom
BACKING
Gloucestershire
27.78
NetProfit
23.22
=
Gloucestershire
WIN
Winningsfrom
BACKING
Gloucestershire
50.00
Stakefrom
BACKING
Worcestershire
50.00
NetProfit
NIL
=
RESULT
2.80x27.78
65
Generate a Profit situation if Gloucestershire Win anda No Lose situation if
theyLose
IfGloucestershireWINthematchaprofitof41.80willhavebeengeneratedbutiftheyLOSE
IamstillinaNoLosesituation.
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
CURRENTBET
BACKWorcestershire
2.02 50.00 51.00
Return
101.00
PROPOSEDBET
BACKGloucestershire
2.80 51.00 91.80 142.80
IcannowcalculatetheStakerequiredtogivemeaProfitifGloucestershireWINanda
NoLosesituationiftheyLOSE.
BackStake=PotentialProfiton1stBet
=51.00
Stakeof51.00)
Worcestershire
WIN
Winningsfrom
BACKING
Worcestershire
51.00
Stakefrom
BACKING
Gloucestershire
51.00
NetProfit
NIL
=
Gloucestershire
WIN
Winningsfrom
BACKING
Gloucestershire
91.80
Stakefrom
BACKING
Worcestershire
50.00
NetProfit
41.80
=
RESULT
2.80x51.00
66
LetstakealookatLAYING.
IcannotLAYbothteamsandmakeaprofitbecausethetotalofthepercentageequivalentofthe
odds add upto less than 100% (97.9%).This is the reverse of BACKING where the total per
centageisusuallyover100%.
LAYODDS %
Worcestershire2.1047.62(12.10x100)
97.87
ImgoingtoLAYWorcestershiretoLOSE.Illplace50at2.1
Mycurrentsituationisnow:
ThisLAYbetisnowlockedinatoddsof2.10.InowneedtheLAYoddsforGloucestershireto
drop to a level which will give me enough manoeuvrability to trade myself into a Guaranteed
ProfitoraNoLosesituationbyLAYINGGloucestershire.
LetssaytheLAYoddsforGloucestershiredropto1.5.Thisfiguremaybealittleexaggerated,
but Im just showing principles in this manual. The percentage equivalent of 1.5 is 66.67%
(11.5x100)
LAYODDS %
Worcestershire2.1047.62(LockedinBet)
114.29
The total percentage is now morethan 100% which puts me in a very favourable position and
leavesmewithanumberofoptions:
GenerateaGuaranteedProfitnomatterwhichteamloses
GenerateaProfitsituationifWorcestershireloseandaNoLosesituationiftheywin
GenerateaProfitsituationifGloucestershireloseandaNoLosesituationiftheywin
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
CURRENTBET
LAYWorcestershire
2.10 50.00 50.00
Potential
Payout
55.00
PROPOSEDBET
LAYGloucestershire
DontforgetthatyourPotential
ProfitisthesameastheStake
(2.10 1)x50.00
67
Iwillnowgothrougheachoptionexplainingthemathsinvolvedsothatyouwillhaveanunder
standing of what is happening. However, like other calculations, you will find spreadsheet
layoutsatthebackofthemanual.
GenerateaGuaranteedProfitnomatterwhichteamloses
AGuaranteedProfitof15.00hasbeengeneratednomatterwhichteamloses.
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
CURRENTBET
LAYWorcestershire
2.10 50.00 50.00
Potential
Payout
55.00
PROPOSEDBET
LAYGloucestershire
1.50 70.00 70.00 35.00
IcannowcalculatetheStakerequiredtogivemeaGuaranteedProfitnomatterwhich
teamloses.
LayStake=PotentialProfiton1stBetx(Oddson1stBetOddson2ndBet)
=50.00x(2.101.50)
=50.00x1.4
=70.00
Worcestershire
LOSE
Winningsfrom
LAYING
Worcestershire
50.00
Payout
LAYING
Gloucestershire
35.00
NetProfit
15.00
=
Gloucestershire
LOSE
Winningsfrom
LAYING
Gloucestershire
70.00
Payout
LAYING
Worcestershire
55.00
NetProfit
15.00
=
RESULT
68
Generate a Profit situation if Worcestershire Lose and a No Lose situation if
theyWin
InthisexampleIhavestackedall myprofitonWorcestershiretoLOSE,butIamstill inaNo
LosesituationiftheyWIN.
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
CURRENTBET
LAYWorcestershire
2.10 50.00 50.00
Potential
Payout
55.00
PROPOSEDBET
LAYGloucestershire
1.50 55.00 55.00 27.50
IcannowcalculatetheStakerequiredtogivemeaprofitifWorcestershireLOSEandaNo
IfIamlookingforaNoLosesituationifWorcestershireWIN(GloucestershireLOSE)my
LAYStakeonGloucestershireneedstobeequaltothePotentialPayoutifWorcestershire
WINi.e.55.00
Worcestershire
LOSE
Winningsfrom
LAYING
Worcestershire
50.00
Payout
LAYING
Gloucestershire
27.50
NetProfit
22.50
=
Gloucestershire
LOSE
Winningsfrom
LAYING
Gloucestershire
55.00
Payout
LAYING
Worcestershire
55.00
NetProfit
NIL
=
RESULT
69
GenerateaProfitsituationifGloucestershireLoseandaNoLosesituationif
theyWin
InthisexampleIhavestackedall myprofitonGloucestershiretoLOSE,butIamstill inaNo
Odds Stake
Potential
Profit
CURRENTBET
LAYWorcestershire
2.10 50.00 50.00
Potential
Payout
55.00
PROPOSEDBET
LAYGloucestershire
1.50 100.00 100.00 50.00
IcannowcalculatetheStakerequiredtogiveme
aprofitifGloucestershireLOSEandaNoLose
situationiftheyWIN.
IfIamlookingforaNoLosesituationifGlouces
tershireWIN(WorcestershireLOSE)myPayout
needstobethesameasthePotentialProfitfrom
myWorcestershireLAYbeti.e.50.00
Worcestershire
LOSE
Winningsfrom
LAYING
Worcestershire
50.00
Payout
LAYING
Gloucestershire
50.00
NetProfit
NIL
=
Gloucestershire
LOSE
Winningsfrom
LAYING
Gloucestershire
100.00
Payout
LAYING
Worcestershire
55.00
NetProfit
45.00
=
RESULT
Icannowcalculatemystakeby
dividingthePotentialPayoutfrommy
GloucestershireLAYbetbythe
GloucestershireLAYoddsless1.
=50.00(1.50 1)
=100.00
70
LossReduction
Lookingagainattwocontestantevents,youmay favouracontestanttowinandthereforewish
to BACK before looking at any further trading possibility which may stem from your original
bet.STOP.BeforeBACKING yourfavouredcontestanttoWIN,itmightbemoreprofitableto
LAYtheunfavouredcontestanttoLOSE.
Letmeexplain.
ForeachBACKoddononecontestantthere isanequivalentLAYoddontheothercontestant
(dontforgetweareonly lookingattwocontestanteventshere).Letstakealookattheexam
plefromthechapterA2HorseRace.
IfancyWorcestershiretoWINandthecurrentBACKoddsare2.02.
I could go ahead and BACK Worcestershire at these odds or ask for my own odds, but there
maybeanadvantagetoLAYINGGloucestershireatthecurrentLAYodds.
In this example I need to compare Worcestershire BACK odds of 2.02 with Gloucestershire
LAYoddsof1.99
ToconverttheBACKoddsof2.02toequivalentLAYoddsIapplythefollowingformula:
LAYoddequivalent=1+(1(BACKodds1))
=1+(1(2.02 1))
=1+0.98
=1.98
InthiscasethereisNOadvantagetoLAYINGtheunfavouredcontestanttheLAYoddsof1.99
arehigherthantheconversionof1.98
71
LetsimaginethattheLAYoddsforGloucestershireare1.98.
IcouldthenBACKWorcestershireorLAYGloucestershireandachievethesameprofit.Which
pathtotakewoulddependonwhattrade,ifany,Ihadinmind.
Therefore, if I BACK Worcestershire at 2.02 for 50, I will make a profit of 51 (2.02 less 1
multipliedbystakeof50)iftheyWIN.
Alternatively,ifILAYGloucestershireat1.98withanamountequaltotheprofitIwouldhave
madefromaBACKbeti.e.51,IwillmakethesameprofitifmypredictionofWorcestershire
Winningiscorrect.
IfWorcestershireLOSEIwilllose50ifIBACKthem.
IfWorcestershireLOSEIwillhavetopayout50ifILAYGloucestershire(1.98less1multi
pliedby51).Theremaybeafewpencedifferencethroughrounding.
Eitherway,mylosswillbethesameifmypredictionisincorrect.
LetsimaginetheLAYoddsforGloucestershireare1.95
IfWorcestershireLOSEIwilllose50ifIBACKWorcestershire.
If WorcestershireLOSEIhavetopayout48.45ifILAYGloucestershire(1.95less1multi
pliedby51).Theremaybeafewpencedifferencethroughrounding
InthiscasemylosseswillbelessifILAYGloucestershireandmypredictionofWorcestershire
WINNINGisincorrect.
You may only save a few pence by LAYING instead of BACKING, or vice versa, but
rememberthesaying:Lookafterthepenniesandthepoundswilllookafterthemselves.
Theoverallruleistherefore:
IfyouintendtoBACKacontestantyouwilldobetteriftheLAYoddsontheothercon
testantareLOWERthantheequivalentCONVERTEDBACKODDS
IfyouintendtoLAYacontestantyouwilldobetteriftheBACKoddsontheothercon
testantareHIGHERthantheequivalentCONVERTEDLAYODDS
SpreadsheetLayoutandFormulaeforconvertingoddscanbefoundinAppendixIIIoryoucan
usetheConversionTable.
72
What follows is a strategy for trading soccer matches inrunning or inplay. It is simple,
effectiveandeasytounderstand.
Plenty of matches result in a draw, but only about 1 in 20, or 5% result in a noscore draw.
Convertedtodigitaloddsthiswouldbe20.
OnBetfairsMatchOddstheonlyoutcomesthatcanbebetonare:
HomeWin
AwayWin
Draw(thereisnooptiontobetonnoscoredraws)
Themethod:
Select matches where the odds for Home Win, Away Win and Draw are reasonably in
line.Thisdoesnotnecessarilymeanthattheteamsarewellmatchedanditcanbeusefulif
youcanpickteamsthatdonothavesimilarform.
LAYtheDRAW
Whenthematchisunderwaywaitforagoaltobescored(youneedtobeintouchwiththe
match either by watching it on television, listening to a live radio commentary or any
other means to inform you about what is going on), at which point trading will be
suspended.
Whentradingresumestheoddsforthedrawwillalmostcertainlyhavemovedout.
BACK the DRAW at the increased odds either to give yourself a Guaranteed Profit or a
NoLosesituationusingthecalculationsyouhaveseeninpreviouschapters.
AFootballTradingStrategy
BetweenthetimeyouhaveplacedyourLAYBETandthetimeofthematchtheoddsmay
movetoyouradvantagetoenableyoutoBACKtheDRAWforaGuaranteedProfitora
NOLOSEsituation.Ifthissituationdoesnotarisethenmovetothenextstage.
Beforeyouusethisstrategy,Iadvocatethreethings:practice,practiceandpractice.
Observehowthemarketbehavesgetafeelforit.Papertradeforatimeandseehow
Atthispointitisadvisabletoactasquicklyaspossiblebecausethefirstoddson
displayfollowingresumptionoftradingleantothehighside(toouradvantage)and
theywillusuallyshortensoonafter.Nowthatyouknowhowtoaskforyourownodds,
whichyouhaveseeninpreviouschapters,youmaywishtoaskforoddswhichyouthink
willbetaken.Dontbetoogreedyiftheoddsyouaskforaretoohighsomeoneis
simplygoingtoundercutyou,leavingyoutotaketheavailableodds.Themessageis
actasquicklyaspossiblefollowingresumptionoftradingafteragoalhasbeenscored.
73
yougeton.
Asyougainconfidence,andwhenthatfirstgoalisscored,youmaywishtolookforfurther
trades.BACKING&LAYING,LAYING&BACKING,waitingforanyindicationsthatwill
swingoddsinyourfavourforaprofitabletrade.
WHATDOIDOIFNOGOALSARESCOREDTOWARDSTHEENDOFTHE
MATCH?
Toreduceyouroriginalliability,andifthereisnoalternative,itisadvisabletotradeoutata
loss.
74
MovingMarkets AlmostRiskFree
(AMethodfromaformerCityTrader)
This isastrategy forreaderswithaMachiavelliandisposition.Itisprimarily intended formar
kets which are relatively quiet, or for those markets which have just opened and have not yet
becomemature.
Strategy:
There is a phenomenon which I have recently experienced on Betfair which I sometimes find
veryirritating,butwhichcanbeusedtomovepricesinyourfavourandwhichcanbedonefor
verylittlerisk.
Tobeginwith,letsimaginesomedifferentscenarios.
First,imagineyouhavedecidedtoBACKXYZtoWINwithoddsof(say)2.62.Thebetisun
matched,butitisthecheapest,andpossiblytheonlypriceavailabletolayers.
Imaginethatwithinacoupleofminutesofyouplacingyourbetthatthepriceclosesto:
Your unmatched bet of 2.62 is no longer the cheapest price available to layers someone has
undercutyourprice.
Ifyourbetis100andtheotherisforsimilarorless,andyoubelievethatthemarketislikelyto
becomequiteactive,thenthatissimplythenatureofexchanges.
Younowhavethechoiceof:
Leavingyourbetasitis
Joiningtheotherbackerathisprice
Droppingyourpriceto2.58toremainthecheapestbacker
Ifyoudooptforthefinaloftheseoptionsthenbepreparedforanauction.Youmayfindthe
other backer drops his price to 2.56 to remain the cheapest and then you will have to decide
whether you wantto chase the price downor remain where you are. If you do decide to chase
thepricethen youshouldhaveaclearideawhatthe lowestprice isatwhich youarewillingto
BACKandtostopwhenyougetthere.
XYZ 2.24
Back
2.62
Lay
XYZ 2.24
Back
2.60
80
2.62
100
Lay
75
Imaginenow,thatyourbetis justasmallone. Letssaythatitis2thesmallestBetfairwill
acceptandyoudothesameasbeforeandBACKXYZat2.62.Thistimeyourbetistheonly
oneavailabletolayers.
Imagine also that, as before, within two minutes of your bet appearing in the LAY box a bet
appearsat2.60for80.Thistimetheamountisalotmorethatyours.
Now you are at the back of the queue and if, apart from the 80 bet, there are only small
playersaround,itwillseemlikethechancesofgettingyourbetmatchedaresignificantlyaf
fected.Thistimeitislikelythatyoumayfeelthattheonlywaytohaveachanceofgettingyour
betmatchedistodropyourpriceto2.58.
IcanunderstandwhyaBACKERwillwanttomakehimselfthecheapestwhenthereisamod
eratetolargeamountofmoneyontheactivelaybutton(thepinkbutton).But,tomymind,it
isnonsensetoputupan80(orevena20)betatalowerprice(2.60),whenallthatisavailable
tolayersis2.Itwouldseemtometobefarmoresensibletojoininat2.62knowingthatonly
the2isinthewayofgettingthebetmatched.
Offering lower odds achieves virtually nothing, except to suggest a lack of understanding of
how markets workforcing the price down for no reasonotherthan to be cheapest, no matter
how small the competing bets, simply reduces potential profits it achieves no real advantage
and all it does is benefit the layers. The seeming mindlessness of the behaviour leads me to
wonderifthis is humanbeingsputtingtheir minds in neutralorbots(software)programmed
to ensure that the backer using such software stays on the offer (cheapest price available to
layers).
Whetherthis isthebehaviourof mindless humans,orbots,forthosewhowishtouseitthere
sultisthatthebehaviourgivesanopportunitytomovetheoddsinyourfavourandforverylittle
risk.
Keepingwiththesamescenarioasbefore, imaginethattheoddsforXYZarestill2.24 2.62
butthistimeyouwanttoLAYXYZfor50atsomewherebetween2.46and2.54.Imaginealso
that from your experience in this particular market you are aware that if you simply putup
youroddsat2.46themostlikelyeffectwillbethat,apartfromthepricebecoming2.462.62,
anotherlayerwill suddenlyappearandtheprice willclose forcing youtoeitherdropout,miss
youroddsbeingthebestavailabletobackers,orforcing youtochasetheprice(i.e. justasbe
fore).Youmay,therefore,simplywishtowatchthepriceuntiltheoddsyouwantbecomeavail
ablei.e.thepriceavailabletolayersdropsto2.54orbelow.
XYZ 2.24
Back
2.62
2
Lay
XYZ 2.24
Back
2.60
80
2.62
2
Lay
76
However, if you think the price is more likely to drift, rather than shorten, you may want to
assistthepricetomove inthedirection youwant.Ifthereisevidencethatanyprice youput
up will be leapfrogged, then a simple strategy, using the prices we used before, would be to
BACK XYZ for 2 at 2.60. When the lower price of 2.58 appears, reduce your price to 2.56
whenthe nextpriceof2.54appears,reduce yourpriceto2.52andkeepgoinguntilthe backer
stopsloweringhisprice.Thensimply takeoutthebackerbyLAYINGattheavailableprice,
rememberingtocancelthe2BACKatthesametime.
I admit that this may seem like a sneaky strategy, but anyone betting on Betfair should be
awarethattheyareswimminginsharkinfestedwatersandthatthereareprofessionalswhowill
usemuchsneakiertechniquesthanthistomakeaprofit.
77
LookingForfurtherEvidence
Wheneveryouintendtoplaceabetoraskforyourownodds,alwaystakealookatthebetting
queues.Abetterpicturemaybeestablishedbylookingattheamountofmoneybeingplacedon
acontestantandwhatoddsotherusersareaskingfor.Dont limit yourself to the basic odds
page.
Openupthestatisticsforthecontestantyoureinterestedinandstudythetrends.Alotofinfor
mationcanbehadhere.
Alwayslookatthe
Volumeofinterest
inacontestant
comparedtothe
Totalmatchedon
thisevent.
Amountswaiting
tobeBACKEDat
appropriateOdds
Amountswaiting
tobeLAYEDat
appropriateOdds
Amounts
MATCHEDat
appropriateOdds
78
The queue can take any form small amounts, large amounts, odds without any amount being
askedfor.Wheredoyoupitchyouramount.Youmustconsiderwhatchanceyourrequesthasof
being matched taking into account what end result you are looking for. Asking forodds when
thereisalargequeueinfrontofyouwithlargeamountsonoffermaycauseyouroffertobelost
foreverwithouteverbeingmatched.
Lookoutforrogueamounts thesemaybeauser(s)attemptingtotemporarilyaffectodds.
Alotwilldependonwhattimeofdayyouintendtostarttradingbutbylookingatthegraphyou
maybeabletospotatrendofinterestinacontestantifthegraphismovingdownwardsthena
goodinterestinthecontestantis indicatedandthereforeoddsmaydropfurther.Obviously,the
oppositeappliesifthegraphisclimbing.
A technique I useto help me with possible oddsmovement makes the useof a spreadsheet. A
spreadsheetisntabsolutelyvitalbutitdoesmakethingsadarnsighteasier.ItinvolvesCopying
&PastingtheoddsqueueinthemarketinformationontoaspreadsheetandusingtheSUMfor
mulatoquicklyaddupthetotalamountwaitingtobeBACKEDandthetotalamountwaitingto
be LAYED.Ifthe formergrosslyoutweighsthe latterthenthis may bean indicationthatodds
willmoveoutandviceversa.ItmaysoundlongwindedbutIassureyouitonlytakesafewsec
onds.Thealternativewouldbetoaddeachindividuallinewithacalculatornotverypractical
whentherearelongqueues.
Amountswaiting
tobeBACKEDat
appropriateOdds
Amountswaiting
tobeLAYEDat
appropriateOdds
Amounts
MATCHEDat
appropriateOdds
79
MarketInformationData,Copied&Pastedintospreadsheet.
Clues, Clues, Clues. We are constantly on the lookout for clues which will tell us likely odds
movementandtheirdirection.
Anothersourceof informationcanbe found fromwww.RacingPost.co.uk(if youarefollowing
horsesthatis).SelecttheraceyouareinterestedinandthenclickonLIVE COMMENTARY
& ODDS COMPARISON foundontherighthandsideofyourscreen.Whentheoddsbecome
available from the various bookies you will be able to compare them with those on offer on
BetfairorwhicheverBettingExchange youareusing.Changetheoddsdisplaytodecimals for
easycomparison.AstheoddsbegintomovethecolouroftheoddsdisplaymaybeRedorBlue
RedindicatesthatoddsarecominginandBlueindicatesthatoddsaremovingout.
TotalofBACKrequests
TotalofLAYrequests
80
Ifyouhavetime,readSpotlightsundertheAnalysisSectionofRacingPostandanylatebreak
ing news that might knockthe favourite of its perch. You might read about atrainer declaring
thathishorseisnotrunningatpeakperformancethisinformationcanquicklycauseahorses
oddstomoveoutifotherusersarereadingfromthesamesongsheet gettherefirst.
ChangetoDecimal
OddsDisplayfor
easycomparisonwith
BettingExchange
Odds
OddsDisplayedinRed OddsMovingIn
OddsDisplayedinBlue OddsMovingOut
81
Conclusion
Throughout this manual you have seen examples where the trading has usually started and
finishedonthesameday.Therearemanymarketswhereeventscanspanseveraldays,oreven
weeks,whereyoucanBACKandLAYatoptimumtimestobuildupsomenicelittleearners.I
certainly hope that the different scenarios I have shown have given you food for thought and
shownhowBettingExchangescanbeused,orindeed,shouldbeusedwithyourchosenmarket.
Ifyouhaveunderstoodwhatyouhaveread,thenyouarenowinagoodpositiontoventureinto
otherareas.Youwillbesteeringyourselfawayfromtherealmsofgamblingandenteringanew
worldoftrading,lookingatalmosteverysituationwhereyoucanextractprofitfrombuyingand
sellinggamblingodds.
TheBettingExchangeshavebecomeyourmoneymakingopportunitythatyouveneverhadin
theworldoftraditionalgambling.
Note:Dontforgetitispossibletolose,soonlyinvestwhatyoucanafford.
Keepuptodatewithwww.betexchangenews.com
Pro Gambling Products
http://www.progamblingproducts.co.uk
82
AppendixI
MicrosoftExcelSpreadsheetCalculations:
Thefollowingspreadsheetscreenshotsexplainhoweasyitistosetupvariousscenarios:
Scenario1
FollowingtheinputofyourdesiredProfitTargetandrelevantdetailsfromyourBACKBET,the
OddsandStakerequiredforyourproposedLAYBETwillbecalculated.
FormulaDisplay
InputAreasarecolouredgrey
83
Scenario2
Following the input of your desired Profit Target and relevant details from your BACK BET,
theOddsandStakerequiredforyourproposedLAYBETwillbecalculated.
FormulaDisplay
84
Scenario3
Following the input of your desired Profit Target and relevant details from your BACK BET,
theOddsandStakerequiredforyourproposedLAYBETwillbecalculated
FormulaDisplay
85
Scenario4
FollowingtheinputofyourdesiredProfitTargetandrelevantdetailsfromyourLAYBET,the
OddsandStakerequiredforyourproposedBACKBETwillbecalculated.
FormulaDisplay
86
Scenario5
FormulaDisplay
87
Scenario6
FormulaDisplay
88
Scenario7
Following the input of details from your BACK BET and proposed LAY ODDS, the Guaran
teedProfitandStakerequiredforyourLAYBETwillbecalculated.
FormulaDisplay
89
Scenario8
Following the input of details from your LAY BET and proposed BACK ODDS, the Guaran
teedProfitandStakerequiredforyourBACKBETwillbecalculated
FormulaDisplay
90
APPENDIXII
A2HorseRaceSpreadsheetLayouts
BACKING
FormulaDisplay
91
BACKING
FormulaDisplay
92
BACKING
FormulaDisplay
93
LAYING
FormulaDisplay
94
LAYING
FormulaDisplay
95
LAYING
FormulaDisplay
96
APPENDIXIII
LossReductionSpreadsheetLayouts
FormulaDisplay
97
FormulaDisplay
98
BACKtoLAYOddsConversion
BACK LAY BACK LAY BACK LAY BACK LAY BACK LAY
100 1.010 13.5 1.080 3.4 1.417 1.99 2.010 1.41 3.439
98 1.010 13 1.083 3.35 1.426 1.98 2.020 1.4 3.500
96 1.011 12.5 1.087 3.3 1.435 1.97 2.031 1.39 3.564
94 1.011 12 1.091 3.25 1.444 1.96 2.042 1.38 3.632
92 1.011 11.5 1.095 3.2 1.455 1.95 2.053 1.37 3.703
90 1.011 11 1.100 3.15 1.465 1.94 2.064 1.36 3.778
88 1.011 10.5 1.105 3.1 1.476 1.93 2.075 1.35 3.857
86 1.012 10 1.111 3 1.500 1.92 2.087 1.34 3.941
84 1.012 9.8 1.114 2.98 1.505 1.91 2.099 1.33 4.030
82 1.012 9.6 1.116 2.96 1.510 1.9 2.111 1.32 4.125
80 1.013 9.4 1.119 2.94 1.515 1.89 2.124 1.31 4.226
78 1.013 9.2 1.122 2.92 1.521 1.88 2.136 1.3 4.333
76 1.013 9 1.125 2.9 1.526 1.87 2.149 1.29 4.448
74 1.014 8.8 1.128 2.88 1.532 1.86 2.163 1.28 4.571
72 1.014 8.6 1.132 2.86 1.538 1.85 2.176 1.27 4.704
70 1.014 8.4 1.135 2.84 1.543 1.84 2.190 1.26 4.846
68 1.015 8.2 1.139 2.82 1.549 1.83 2.205 1.25 5.000
66 1.015 8 1.143 2.8 1.556 1.82 2.220 1.24 5.167
64 1.016 7.8 1.147 2.78 1.562 1.81 2.235 1.23 5.348
62 1.016 7.6 1.152 2.76 1.568 1.8 2.250 1.22 5.545
60 1.017 7.4 1.156 2.74 1.575 1.79 2.266 1.21 5.762
58 1.018 7.2 1.161 2.72 1.581 1.78 2.282 1.2 6.000
56 1.018 7 1.167 2.7 1.588 1.77 2.299 1.19 6.263
54 1.019 6.8 1.172 2.68 1.595 1.76 2.316 1.18 6.556
52 1.020 6.6 1.179 2.66 1.602 1.75 2.333 1.17 6.882
50 1.020 6.4 1.185 2.64 1.610 1.74 2.351 1.16 7.250
48 1.021 6.2 1.192 2.62 1.617 1.73 2.370 1.15 7.667
46 1.022 6 1.200 2.6 1.625 1.72 2.389 1.14 8.143
44 1.023 5.9 1.204 2.58 1.633 1.71 2.408 1.13 8.692
42 1.024 5.8 1.208 2.56 1.641 1.7 2.429 1.12 9.333
40 1.026 5.7 1.213 2.54 1.649 1.69 2.449 1.11 10.091
38 1.027 5.6 1.217 2.52 1.658 1.68 2.471 1.1 11.000
36 1.029 5.5 1.222 2.5 1.667 1.67 2.493 1.09 12.111
34 1.030 5.4 1.227 2.48 1.676 1.66 2.515 1.08 13.500
32 1.032 5.3 1.233 2.46 1.685 1.65 2.538 1.07 15.286
30 1.034 5.2 1.238 2.44 1.694 1.64 2.563 1.06 17.667
29 1.036 5.1 1.244 2.42 1.704 1.63 2.587 1.05 21.000
28 1.037 5 1.250 2.4 1.714 1.62 2.613 1.04 26.000
27 1.038 4.9 1.256 2.38 1.725 1.61 2.639 1.03 34.333
26 1.040 4.8 1.263 2.36 1.735 1.6 2.667 1.02 51.000
25 1.042 4.6 1.278 2.34 1.746 1.59 2.695 1.01 101.000
24 1.043 4.5 1.286 2.32 1.758 1.58 2.724
23 1.045 4.4 1.294 2.3 1.769 1.57 2.754
22 1.048 4.3 1.303 2.28 1.781 1.56 2.786
21 1.050 4.2 1.313 2.26 1.794 1.55 2.818
20 1.053 4.1 1.323 2.24 1.806 1.54 2.852
19.5 1.054 4 1.333 2.22 1.820 1.53 2.887
19 1.056 3.95 1.339 2.2 1.833 1.52 2.923
18.5 1.057 3.9 1.345 2.18 1.847 1.51 2.961
18 1.059 3.85 1.351 2.16 1.862 1.5 3.000
17.5 1.061 3.8 1.357 2.14 1.877 1.49 3.041
17 1.063 3.75 1.364 2.12 1.893 1.48 3.083
16.5 1.065 3.7 1.370 2.1 1.909 1.47 3.128
16 1.067 3.65 1.377 2.08 1.926 1.46 3.174
15.5 1.069 3.6 1.385 2.06 1.943 1.45 3.222
15 1.071 3.55 1.392 2.04 1.962 1.44 3.273
14.5 1.074 3.5 1.400 2.02 1.980 1.43 3.326
14 1.077 3.45 1.408 2 2.000 1.42 3.381
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BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

BACK 10.50 20.00 190.00 NIL

LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

LAY 10.00 20.00 20.00 180.00

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