Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
+
+ + + =
=
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$
. ..........
@ ? $
$
This is true when the discounting rate r2 is same every year. ,ut when the rates are different every year say r$
r? r@ rD r=L.. rn etc. we have to use the expanded formula and therefore it becomes
( ) ( )( ) ( )( )( )
( )( )( ) ( )
r r r r
PV
r r r
PV
r r
PV
r
PV
PV
n
n
+ + + +
+ + + + + +
+
+ + =
$ .. .......... $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
@ ? $
.......... ..........
. ..........
@ ? $ ? $ $
@ ? $
". C 0) D7)6.)) '$( 27--(&(+' 088&07)09 6&7'(&70 -%& (:09.0'7%+ %- 60)$ -9%1) -%& 6%480&7+; 4.'.099, (A69.)7:(
7+:()'4(+' 8&%8%)09).
The appraisal criteria for evaluation of mutually exclusive investment proposals are broadly categorised as:
6iscounting 4riteria:
- N(' P&()(+' V09.( (NPV) is the sum of the present values of all cash flows associated with the pro5ect.
+uture cash flows are discounted at a certain hurdle rate to arrive at their present value. Bigher N/<
indicates a better proposal in case the "nitial "nvestments are similar.
- B(+(-7'-C%)' A+09,)7) calculates the ratio of either /resent <alue of benefits to the "nitial "nvestment
M,enefit 4ost 7atio ,479 or the Net /resent <alue to "nitial "nvestment MNet ,enefit 4ost 7atio N,479.
The criterion is preferable to N/< criteria for comparing proposals having widely differing initial
investments.
- I+'(&+09 R0'( %- R('.&+ (IRR) is the discount rate at which N/< of the pro5ect is Nero. Bigher "77
indicates better proposal irrespective of the amount of initial investment.
Non*6iscounting 4riteria:.
- P0, B065 P(&7%2 is the length of time to recover initial cash outlay on the pro5ect. 1horter the payback
period the more desirable the pro5ect. This criterion tends to shield the pro5ect from the risk of future
uncertainties in the cash flows to certain extent.
4
- A66%.+'7+; R0'( %- R('.&+ is a measure of pro5ect profitability that relates income to investment both
measured in accounting terms. "t is generally expressed as a ratio of Average "ncome after Tax to "nitial
"nvestment.
(xcept for the N/< criterion which can not be used for comparing mutually exclusive proposals unless the
investment amounts are similar all other criteria enable a good comparison within their own limitations.
"n general the non*discounting methods are simpler to calculate and therefore give a quicker comparison
between various proposals. They however do not take time value of future cash flows into consideration and
therefore may result in misleading conclusions. These criteria are therefore used to compare smaller investments
or as a quick method to discard weak proposals.
6iscounting methods are considered to be more dependable for comparing large investments and are
recommended for use by the financial institutions.
". C /) F%99%17+; 8&%<(6') 0&( /(7+; 6%+)72(&(2 /, 0 6%480+,, -%& .'797)7+; 7+:()'7/9( ).&89.) ;(+(&0'(2 -&%4
(A7)'7+; %8(&0'7%+). T$( 8&()(+' ROCE (R('.&+ %+ C087'09 E489%,(2) -%& '$( 6%480+, 7) #DE
/7)O(4T A , 4 6 (
"nitial "nvestment ?& @& E& F& $&&
/resent <alue of Net 4ash +low at a discounting
rate of $= > being marginal 4ost of 4apital
@& =& $?& ?&& @&&
(xpected life of the pro5ect @ = = $& $&
SO!UTION #*
"n order to compare and rate the above proposals the absolute value of N/< can not be compared as the initial
investments are varying widely between 7s. ?& 4rores to 7s. $&& 4rores. "t is therefore necessary to use ,47 #
"77 methods. ,ased on the information available rankings based on the two criteria are as under:
PROJECT A B C D E
"77 M"nternal 7ate of 7eturn9 $F $G $E.= $F $%
,47 J /< of benefits - "nitial investment ?.=& ?.EG @.&& @.=& D.&&
"77 7anking ? D = ? $
,47 7anking = D @ ? $
)verall 7anking @ D = ? $
(xplanation: 4omparing both "77 and ,47 ranks
- /ro5ect ( is and /ro5ect 6 are ranked No. $ and No. ? respectively in both criteria and there is no doubt
about the overall ranks for these pro5ects.
- Although ,47 rank for pro5ect 4 is better than that of /ro5ect A the "77 is lower than the present 7)4( of
$F > and hence gets lower ranking than /ro5ect A. Bence /ro5ect A is ranked as No.@ in overall
- /ro5ect , is ranked No. D in both criteria. Bowever it has higher "77 than /ro5ect 4. "77 being more
dependable criterion among the two gets preference and hence /ro5ect 4 is evaluated inferior to /ro5ect ,.
/ro5ect , therefore holds its rank No. D.
SO!UTION 2* (S.;;()'(2 /, P&%-. A. S. C$0./09)
Another approach to the problem could be to find 8niform Annual (quivalent2 of pro5ect N/<s for different
pro5ects. This will bring the differences in pro5ect lives on par.
PROJECT A B C D E
Annualisation factor ?.?F@ @.@=? @.@=? =.&$% =.&$%
Annualised N/< P $= > $@.$D$ $D.%$E @=.F&& @%.FD% =%.GG@
,47 J Annualised N/< - "nvestment &.E=G &.D%G &.=%G &.D%F &.=%F
7anking $ D ? = @
(xplanation: Among pro5ects 4 # ( that have almost equal ,47 values pro5ect 4 is ranked higher due to its
shorter life. 1ame criterion is followed for pro5ects , # 6.
5
". 3 0) W$0' 0&( '$( )7'.0'7%+) 7+ 1$76$ (:09.0'7%+ %- 7+:()'4(+' 09'(&+0'7:() 7) -06797'0'(2 /, 2(67)7%+ '&((
0+09,)7)? EA8907+ '$( /0)76 )'(8) 7+:%9:(2 7+ 2(67)7%+ '&(( 0+09,)7).
1ome investment decisions are not isolated or not unconnected with future outcome of events after making the
decision are analysed with help of decision tree technique. 'any such outcomes would be beyond the control of
the decision*maker and will be a result of chance to a greater or lesser extent.
A decision tree consists of a number of branches springing at each node as a result of one of two conditions.
,asic steps involved in the analysis are:
$. "dentify the problem and various alternatives
?. +orm the decision tree.
- 6ecision points and alternatives available for action.
- 4hance points when outcomes are dependant on chance
@. 1pecify probabilities # monetary values for various outcomes.
- data for probabilities associated with each possible outcome at various chance nodes and
- 'onetary value of each combination of decision alternatives and chance outcomes.
D. (valuate the alternatives.
- (valuate monetary values of chance points and decision points in a backward manner till reaching
the original decision point.
". 3 /) A 6%480+, $0) 0+ 7+:()'7/9( ).&89.) %- R). #00 C&%&(). I+:()'7+; '$7) 04%.+' 7+ 7') (A7)'7+; /.)7+())
60+ ;7:( 0 6(&'07+ &('.&+ %- D.0E. A9'(&+0'7:(9,, '$(&( 7) 0+ %88%&'.+7', -%& 27:(&)7-760'7%+ 1$76$, 7-
).66())-.9, 7) ()'740'(2 '% /&7+; 0 &('.&+ %- #F.0E. H%1(:(& 7- 27:(&)7-760'7%+ 7) +%' ).66())-.9, (A8(6'(2
&('.&+ 1799 /( %+9, 2.0E. W$0' 4.)' /( '$( 8&%/0/797'7() -%& '1% %.'6%4() %- 27:(&)7-760'7%+ 7+ %&2(& '%
405( '$( 27:(&)7-760'7%+ 1%&'$1$79(?
!et probability of success in diversification be x2. Bence probability of failure is M$*x9.
(valuation of diversification should be at least be F > i.e. 7s. F.& 4rores if not more.
Bence
F.& J $G.& x H ?.& M$*x9
F.& J $G.& x H ?.& Q ?.& x
F.& Q ?.& J $=.& x
x J E - $= J &.D
/robability of success in diversification should be at least &.D or D&.& >
6
100 Cr.
INVEST
EXISTING
BUSINES
S
DIVERSIFY
SUCCESS x %
FAILURE 1-X %
8.0 Cr.
100 %
1.0 Cr.
2.0 Cr.
". G W&7'( )$%&' +%'() %+ 0+, -%.& %- '$( -%99%17+;* (3 40&5) (06$)
7) U)( %- CPM 7+ %8'747)0'7%+ %- 8&%<(6' 6%)'.
The principal focus of 4/' analysis is on variation in activity times as a result of changes in resource
assignments. "t further determines pro5ect schedule to minimise total cost on the basis of time*cost relationships.
Total pro5ect cost comprises of the direct cost2 for performing activities Mmaterial labour # machinery costs
equipment hire costs etc.9 and indirect cost2 Moverheads supervision interest down*time cost loss of revenue
etc.9 "t is observed that while the indirect costs are directly proportional to the pro5ect duration. the direct costs
are inversely proportional to activity duration. This means that the indirect costs reduce with the pro5ect duration
while an extra expenditure has to be incurred on activities to reduce their duration. 4/' tries to achieve the
optimum duration for which the total cost of the pro5ect is the minimum.
"n practical use it is difficult to obtain accurate cost*time relationship on various activities either because data
are not available or because estimates are too bothersome and expensive to compile. ,ut even if the accurate
data are not available best guesses unless completely arbitrary are useful information and help pro5ect manager
to arrive at better decisions.
77) T74( ()'740'7%+ 4('$%2) 7+ PERT CPM 088&%06$().
/(7T: /(7T methodology deals with the uncertainties involved in performing various activities and therefore
difficulties in determining exact duration of activities in the pro5ect. The model generally considers development
oriented pro5ects where many activities do not have precedents to estimate their likely duration. Bence the
model adopts a statistical average time estimate based on three time estimates * optimistic pessimistic and most
likely times * criteria. The total pro5ect duration worked out on this basis thus also has certain probability value.
4/': 4/' approach considers day*to*day work situations and therefore the activity durations can be estimated
with a fair accuracy. 4onsiderable amount of past data can be available for similar activities. The total time for
completion based on critical path duration is also quite accurate and helps in controlling the pro5ect schedules
more effectively.
777) WBS (W%&5 B&(052%1+ S'&.6'.&()
3,1 is a systematic and logical breakdown of the pro5ect into its component parts or work packages. "t is
constructed by dividing pro5ect into its ma5or parts each of which is further sub*divided. The process is
continued till the breakdown reaches such manageable level where schedule cost and responsibility can be
clearly defined for units of work or individual activities. 3,1 therefore helps in
- (ffective planning of the pro5ect by dividing large pro5ect into manageable elements that can be easily
comprehended and planned.
- 4osts and responsibilities can be assigned to 3,1 elements at the lowest levels and summarised at the
higher levels of the structure.
- (ffective planning monitoring and controlling structure can be developed.
- (ffective information system is developed with help of proper codification for cost accounting and progress
reporting.
7:) R()%.&6( !(:(997+; / S4%%'$(+7+;
The initial network schedule considers all activities to start at their earliest times and does not consider the
resource requirements for performing activities. The implicit assumption is that the normal deployment of
resources can be done as and when required and there are no constraints on resources. 1uch schedule invariably
gives rise to a situation where peak requirements of various resources on day*to*day basis show very large
variations. 1uch situation is not desirable as it does not ensure uniform workload on day*to*day basis and pose
difficulty in determining optimum resource strength for the pro5ect.
"t is therefore necessary to smoothen*out the peak requirements and contain the maximum resource level within
available level. This is known as resource levelling and smoothening and is achieved by ad5usting the schedules
of non*critical activities within the available floats. The schedule ad5ustment can be done either by 5ust shifting
the entire activity within the float or by stretching the activity duration with reduction in resource allocation or
by splitting the activity to be carried out in parts at convenient times within the available time. As this exercise is
very complicated complexities increasing as more variety of resources are considered heuristic algorithms are
developed to perform this exercise with help of computer programs.