T I M E S: Markets Witness Pre-Budget Rally

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T I M E S

A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL. XXIII No. 35 Monday, 7 13 July 2014 Pages 20 Rs.15

Markets witness Pre-Budget rally
By Sanjay R. Bhatia
The markets touched new historic highs last week after a few weeks of struggle and correction. Positive global cues
moved US stocks higher and the US indices touched historic highs as improving jobs data and economic numbers
boosted the market sentiment.
The FIIs remained net buyers in both the cash and derivatives segments. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs),
however, continued to press sales and remained net sellers for the week. The Rupee depreciated last week and traded
below the 60 mark. The breadth of the market remained positive amidst lower volumes indicating lack of interest among
participants due to indecisiveness or clarity of trend ahead of the Budget. On the domestic front, all eyes are on the
Railway Budget and the Union Budget to be presented on July 8 & 10 respectively. Expectations from budget are indeed
high.
Technically, the prevailing positive technical conditions helped the markets find buying support at lower levels while
the benchmarks have touched new historic highs. The KST and RSI are placed above their respective averages on the
daily and weekly charts. Further, the Stochastic is
placed above its average on daily charts, while the
MACD is placed above its average on weekly
charts. The Nifty is placed above its 50-day SMA,
100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Further, the
Niftys 50-day and 100-day SMA are placed above
Niftys 200-day SMA, which is known as the
Golden Cross breakout. These positive technical
conditions would lead to further buying support
at lower levels.
However, the prevailing negative technical
conditions still hold good and would weigh on the
market sentiment at higher levels. The MACD is
placed its average on the weekly charts Moreover,
the RSI and KST are in the overbought zone on the
weekly charts and the Stochastic and RSI are
placed around the overbought zone on the daily
charts. These negative technical conditions would
lead to profit booking and selling pressure at
higher levels.
The +DI line is placed below the ADX line but is still placed above the DI line on the weekly charts. Further, the +DI
line is placed above the 40 level on weekly charts indicating that buyers have an upper hand. The markets have started
witnessing buying frenzy ahead of the budget last week. Now it is important that the Nifty sustains above the 7733 level

for it to move up further and test the 8000 level. However, if the Nifty slips below the 7400 level then it is likely to fall
further and test the 7229 support level.
In the meanwhile, the markets would continue to take cues from the new governments Budget session, forthcoming
earning season, DollarRupee exchange rate, global markets and crude oil prices.
Technically on the upside, the BSE Sensex faces resistance at the 26000, 26500, 27000 and 27600 and seeks support
at the 24875, 24163, 22792 and 20480 levels. The support levels for the Nifty are placed at 7733, 7490, 7441, 7402,
7229 and 7118 levels while it faces resistance at 7775, 7850, 7925 and 8000 levels.
Traders and speculators may buy HDFC Bank above Rs.860 with a stop loss of Rs.830 and target price of Rs.925.

Readying for the Budget
By Fakhri H. Sabuwala
Pre-Budget has always been an exciting period for the stock market. This year, the excitement is multi-fold with a new
BJP led NDA government at the Centre backed by a majority verdict. Although Arun Jaitley is the Finance Minister, the
public in general and investors in particular want to see the Modi touch in his maiden Budget.
Will Arun Jaitley address the burning issues, which his predecessors were shy of addressing over the last few years?
Will he be able to lift the hard and heavy curtain of policy paralysis? The markets have rallied on these hopes despite the
domestic macro worries and global worries that keep closing in.
Inflation remains the biggest worry for both the Prime Minister (PM) and the Finance Minister (FM). Ab ki baar Modi
sarkaar was the BJPs main slogan while minimum government with maximum governance was its preamble. The
public voted heavily for NaMo because it was stung by high prices and falling income. NaMo needed to rectify this
anomaly and all hopes were built around this delivery.
That NaMo will do a repeat of Vibrant Gujarat was the common belief and that if he cannot deliver it soon he will at
least draw the road map for the delivery. A Vibrant Bharat is what we pray for and what he has to pave the way for. A lot
of hopes have been pinned on his government to deliver what the people have been yearning for. His first Budget in that
sense becomes a very important tool as it gives a clue of the new government's thinking, its agenda and focus on reforms
as distinct from the pre-election propaganda.
The wish list of the people may be unending. Investors, industrialists, corporates, households, salaried class, students
all have a lot of expectations, which the government needs to fulfill and its efforts in doing so will impact the
benchmarks in the near term. Broadly, it needs to:
(1) Tackle inflation: Food prices are rising with every day and with the delayed monsoon, the situation has turned
tragic. The supply side must be addressed urgently to ease the situation. The government will have to redefine the public
distribution scheme of the essentials. Emphasis must be laid on proper warehousing of food-grains and its timely
transportation to areas of scarcity. Cold storage of perishables near urban growth centres need to be encouraged and
imports of essentials must be eased and curbs on exports in some form or the other must be introduced to meet the
domestic demand.
(2) Reform taxation: Tax reforms is the need of the hour. Simplification of procedures and statutes will result in greater
compliance and larger collection. The road map for a direct tax code and introduction of GST cannot be delayed any
longer. An early and firm resolution of Vodafone type of litigations will send positive signals to foreigners and attract
FDI, mergers and acquisitions, which are needed to boost the economy.
Greater savings and incentives to do so under Sec 80C and the like must be introduced. A marginal relaxation in tax
exemption limits will certainly make the budget recipe tastier.
(3) Revive infrastructure: Infrastructure development made Gujarat what it is today and the promise of growth on
similar lines has won NaMo the General Elections. Developing power, roads, ports, water resources and affordable
housing alone can create the infrastructure for growth. Hence incentives on long-term infra investments are a must.
(4) Create jobs: This is a basic need in a country with such a large population in the 18-45 age bracket. Introduction of
new work schemes for the skilled and unskilled work force needs to be addressed. This must be supplemented by
education training and health for the social sector to grow and contribute to nation building.
BAZAR.COM

(5) Cut waste: When resources are scarce and the situation is that of a near drought, every Rupee spent must be
productive. The FM will have to tighten the belt and monitor government spending to cut wasteful expenditure and
ensure that national resources are put to proper use.

Expect Sensex 26,519 to be tested
By Hitendra Vasudeo
Last week, the BSE Sensex opened at 25179.55 attained a low at 25179.55 and moved up to a high of 2599.08 before it
closed the week at 25962.06 and showed a net rise of 862 points on a week-to-week basis. A bullish candle was formed
last week on the weekly chart after the doji formation in its previous week suggests that a higher trading bottom is
formed at 24878. A new high and breakout above
25735 was witnessed, which also confirms the
swing higher bottom at 24878. The earlier swing
higher bottom was at 24163 but the new swing
higher bottom is at 24878.
A breakout and close above 25735 has been
witnessed, which suggests that the rise continues.
Expect the Sensex to move towards 1.618%
projection level of 26519.
On the monthly chart, if we look at the macro
count then Wave 1 ended at 4643 in September
1994 and Wave 2 ended at 2904 in May 2003.
Wave 3 ended in January 2008 at 21206 whereas
Wave 4 ended in August 2013 at 17448. Wave 5
projection can, therefore, be as low as 28800 but
can exceed to 35000. A major problem on the monthly chart can develop below 17448. Broadly, the corrections are for
buying as we may surpass 28800 in due course of time.
Further breakout of the Wave 5 since the low of 17448 would be Wave 1 from 17448 to 21483, Wave 2 from 21483
to 19963, Wave 3 is in progress from 19963 to the current level and can end at 26519 or above.
A rising channel has been formed in the charts, which shows 1.618 projection of Wave 1 from the bottom of Wave 2.
The channel and projection coincide at 26519.
Failure to sustain at higher levels and violation of 24878 can lead to a correction of Wave 4 of Wave 5. For the time
being, the momentary bias appears to be test 26519 or move towards it.
The fall in the Sensex/Nifty in 2008 was of 9-14 months duration from the January 2008 peak. The breakout in March
2014 happened. So if we look at 9 month to 14 months, the rally can last between December 2014 and May 2015. The
fall was 63.7% from the 2008 peak of 21206 to 7697. If we add the same percentage, then the upside target is 34715.
Weekly support will be at 25713-25428-24878. Weekly resistance will be at 26247-27067.
BSE Mid Cap Index
Expect the BSE Mid Cap index to move towards 9822-10245 from the current level of 9545. Its swing higher bottom is at
8763. As long as the index is above 8763, expect the BSE Mid Cap index to test 9822-10245.
BSE Small Cap Index
Expect the BSE Small Cap index to move towards 11366 from the current level of 10508.
BSE Bankex
The Swing higher bottom is at 16845. Breakout and close above 18019 can lead to a rally towards 19021.
Strategy for the week
TRADING ON TECHNICALS
Peter Lynchs investment mantra
"When stocks are attractive, you buy them. Sure they can't go lower. I have bought stocks at $12 that went to $2,
but then they later went to $30. You just don't know when you can find the bottom".

Traders long and holding stocks can keep the Sensex stop loss at 24700. Expect the rally towards 26519 and above.

WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS
Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with
whatever low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above
then look to book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from
Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.

Scrips

Last
Close
Level
1
Level
2
Center
Point
Level
3
Level
4
Relative
Strength
Weekly
Reversal
Value
Up
Trend
Date

Stop
Loss
Buy
Price
Buy
Price
Book
Profit
Book
Profit
BLUE STAR 304.70 290.0 291.3 303.4 316.9 342.5 79.9 296.0 04-07-14
CENTURY TEXTILE 622.65 584.0 594.6 612.0 640.1 685.5 79.6 567.2 09-05-14
BHARAT FORGE 675.00 610.0 629.3 655.7 701.3 773.3 79.2 605.0 09-05-14
FERTILISER CHEM. 42.30 38.9 39.7 41.5 44.1 48.4 78.4 39.2 16-05-14
BHARAT ELECTRON. 2188.00 2000.0 2035.3 2152.7 2305.3 2575.3 78.3 1999.0 16-05-14

EXIT LIST
Scrip
Last
Close
Sell
Price
Sell
Price
Sell
Price
Stop
Loss
Target
1
Target
2
INFO EDGE (IND) 643.20 661.66 668.50 675.34 697.50 603.7 545.7
MINDTREE 852.55 860.85 865.75 870.65 886.50 819.4 777.9

BUY LIST
Scrip
Last
Close
Buy
Price
Buy
Price
Buy
Price
Stop
Loss
Target
1
Target
2
ADANI ENTERPRISE 498.90 486.69 480.73 474.76 455.45 537.2 587.8
ASAHI INDIA GLAS. 84.10 81.15 79.45 77.75 72.25 95.6 110.0
BATA INDIA 1329.00 1324.86 1314.00 1303.14 1268.00 1416.9 1508.9
COLGATE-PALMOL. 1664.00 1608.35 1589.00 1569.65 1507.00 1772.4 1936.4
DEEPAK FERT.& CHEM. 168.95 161.78 159.10 156.42 147.75 184.5 207.2
DIVI'S LABS 1527.00 1510.86 1500.00 1489.14 1454.00 1602.9 1694.9
F D C 146.05 145.05 142.75 140.45 133.00 164.6 184.1
GNFC 111.75 110.18 109.00 107.82 104.00 120.2 130.2
GRAPHITE INDIA 114.85 112.81 111.35 109.89 105.15 125.2 137.6
GUJARAT GAS CO. 533.25 515.76 496.25 476.74 413.60 681.1 846.4
HDFC BANK 856.00 841.57 836.50 831.43 815.00 884.6 927.6
KANSAI NEROLAC PA. 1644.00 1568.32 1540.00 1511.68 1420.00 1808.3 2048.3
PRESTIGE ESTATE 263.25 254.52 250.05 245.58 231.10 292.4 330.3

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS
Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with
whatever high registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or
below then look to cover short positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the
trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down
Trend.

Scrips

Last
Close
Level
1
Level
2
Center
Point
Level
3
Level
4
Relative
Strength
Weekly
Reversal
Value
Down
Trend
Date

Cover
Short
Cover
Short
Sell
Price
Sell
Price
Stop
loss

BOMBAY RAYON FA. 162.00 150.1 158.8 164.2 167.4 169.7 37.97 166.98 30-05-14
UNITED SPIRITS 2453.00 2231.7 2379.7 2454.3 2527.7 2529.0 42.05 2605.50 13-06-14
GODREJ CONS. PROD. 809.00 586.0 752.0 861.0 918.0 970.0 46.70 822.75 20-06-14


PUNTER'S PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery
based trade for a possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Scrips
BSE
Code
Last
Close
Buy Price
Buy On
Rise
Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2
Risk
Reward
ARCOTECH 532914 307.50 306.00 307.50 302.20 310.8 316.1 0.62
IPCA LAB LTD 624494 881.25 843.50 881.25 825.60 915.6 971.3 0.62
MAHADUSHI IN 537838 561.25 559.00 561.25 550.00 568.2 579.5 0.62
VISAGAR POLYTEX 506146 127.30 122.50 127.30 119.00 132.4 140.7 0.62
SAFARI INDUSTRIES 523025 665.00 635.00 675.00 615.00 712.1 772.1 0.94
ATUL AUTO LTD 531795 548.30 533.80 553.85 521.25 574.0 606.6 0.95
SMS PHARMACEUT. 532815 339.60 325.00 348.00 320.00 365.3 393.3 1.31
TILAK FINANCE 503663 300.00 295.00 309.95 280.45 328.2 357.7 1.44
POKARNA 532486 246.55 242.00 251.00 238.00 259.0 272.0 1.46
LA OPALA RG 526947 963.00 922.00 1004.00 893.00 1072.6 1183.6 1.57

DH Welding is presently working at 45/50% of capacity. With a ROCE of 15.5%, dividend payout of 5% and share
book value of around Rs.36, the stock is available at half the book value.
Yuken India is a high technology company, which is expected to do well as it has a capacity to double sales from
here if it is able to utilize full capacity. The stock gave a technical breakout for higher levels.
Alicon Castalloy, this low equity based company has a share book value of around Rs.100 and is expected to do
well in coming years. Stock may touch Rs.250 mark.
Empire Industries will fare well in coming years from rentals of new building as its core business is already doing
well. With a market cap Rs.447 crore, 240% dividend and share book value of Rs.200, the stock will move up higher
with decent ROCE of 28% EPS Rs.61.
Besides fertilizers, GNFC is also into specialized chemicals. With a book value of Rs.190, CMP of Rs.111 and EPS of
Rs.19, the stock may touch Rs.175.
There was 5% promoter buying in Texmaco Infra & Holding last year. The company has rich values by way of
investments and land banks.
Dai-ichi Karkaria, an almost debt-free company, is into speciality chemicals and is expected to declare good
quarterly results. It has a healthy dividend payout of 40.88% and the promoters stake has increased. The stock
trades at 0.80 times the book value.
Lancor Holdings is trading at 0.81 times its book value. The stock offers a good dividend yield of 3.83%. The
company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record with 3 years ROE at 18.99 and has maintained a healthy
dividend payout of 24%. The stock is attracting investors.
Shares of Technocraft Industries are being bought by funds and FIIs. With a likely FY15 EPS of Rs.40, the share is
expected to touch Rs.400 in the medium-term.
Jay Bharat Maruti, promoted by the JBM Group and Maruti Suzuki, is likely to clock an EPS of Rs.15 (FV Rs.5) in
FY15 riding high on auto sales. The share is poised to touch Rs.150.
Bajaj Steel Industries, with an EPS of Rs.52 and book value of Rs.307, is a strong bonus candidate. In FY15, EPS
may cross Rs.60 on its tiny equity of Rs.2.4 crore. The share is headed towards the Rs.300 mark.
DCM Shriram Industries is going cheap with an FY14 EPS of Rs.19 and FY15(E) EPS of Rs.24. The share may cross
the Rs.140 mark.
Wonderla Holidays counter has attracted sizeable investment buying by funds. The share is heading towards the
triple century mark.
With a likely EPS of over Rs.65 in FY15, JBM Auto is sure to cross the Rs.650 mark. Buy and accumulate on declines.
An Ahmedabad based analyst recommends BNA Ltd., DCM Shriram and Manali Petro hot pre-Budget buys. A
fund manager suggests that Manali Petro may prove to be a likely multi-bagger of 2014.

TOWER TALK
BEST BET

NMDC Ltd. (Code: 526371) Last Close: Rs.183.80
Formerly known as National Mineral Development Corporation Ltd., NMDC is Central PSU headquartered in
Hyderabad, which is now the capital of the new state of Telegana. It is engaged in the exploration, development and
evaluation of metal ore and minerals in India and Australia. It undertakes exploration of iron ore, copper, rock
phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite and beach sand. In
2008, it was categorized as a Navratna Public Sector Enterprise.
It is the single largest iron ore producer producing 22% of the countrys iron ore from 3 fully mechanized mines viz.,
Bailadila Deposit-14/11C, Bailadila Deposit-5, 10/11A (Chhattisgarh State) and Donimalai Iron Ore Mines (Karnataka
State). It produces about 22 million tonnes of iron ore from its Bailadila sector mines and 7 million tonnes from
Donimalai sector mines.
All its iron ore mines and R&D Centre have the ISO 9001: 2008 - QMS Certification.
All its production mines have the ISO 14001:2004 - EMS Certification and OHSAS 18001:2007 - OHMS Certification.
Its R&D Centre has also been declared as a Centre of Excellence in the field of mineral processing by the Expert Group
of UNIDO.
As the demand for steel grows the demand for iron ore will go up. NMDC is gearing itself to meet the expected rise in
demand by enhancing production capabilities of existing mines and opening new mines - Deposit -11B in Bailadila
sector and Kumaraswamy in Donimalai sector. The production capability would increase to around 50 million tonnes
p.a. in coming years.
It is also in the process of securing mining leases for the following iron ore mines some as JV with State Governments:
Sasangada Iron Ore Deposit and Ghatkuri Mine in Jharkhand, Ramandurg in Karnataka, Deposit 4 & 13 in Bailadila,
Chhattisgarh.
Apart from iron ore, the company is developing a Magnesite mine in Jammu and an Arki Lime Stone Project in
Himachal Pradesh.
For value addition, it is developing a 3 MTPA steel plant at Jagdalpur and 2 pellet plants at Donimalai (1.2 MTPA) and at
Bacheli (2 MTPA). Besides, it has acquired Sponge Iron India Ltd. with plans for expansion to produce billets.
Besides iron ore, the company also plans to go for other minerals like Coal, Diamond, Gold etc. for which it is seeking
leases / buy properties in foreign countries directly or as Special Purpose Vehicle / Joint Ventures.
For continuing its exploration activities, NMDC has set a Global Exploration Centre at Raipur, Chhattisgarh.
It is undertaking diversification through intensive R&D efforts for production of High-Tech and High Value added
products from Blue Dust like carbon-free sponge iron powder, Nano crystalline powder. Besides, a study is also being
conducted for setting up a demonstration plant to beneficiate BHJ/BHQ material for upgradation to +64% iron ore
concentrate.
NMDC is also developing renewable energy resources as an environment friendly investment. A Wind mill project
(10.5MW capacity) has been completed & commissioned at Karnataka.
Prospects:
Strong 15% volume growth: NMDC is targeting
dispatches of ~35 MMT in FY15 subject to continued
operations of Essar Steels slurry pipeline. The
Chhattisgarh complex is likely to dispatch ~5 MMT
through the slurry pipeline and ~20 MMT by rail and
road. The Karnataka complex would deliver 10-12
MMT in FY15. The dispatches are on track so far and
the volume for Q1FY15 is likely to be marginally above
8.5 MMT.
Strong demand: Demand for iron ore fines remains
strong despite volatility in international prices. The
June 2014 price hike on lumps had some impact on
demand in the latter half of the month because of fall
in domestic steel/sponge iron ore prices. Although no
decision has been taken, there is a case for a rollback
of the June price hike for lumps.
Financials: (Rs. in crore)
Particulars Q4FY14 Q4FY13 FY14 FY13
Revenue 3,884.49 3,204.25 12,058.20 10,704.27
Other Income 527.54 547.39 2,094.52 2,238.87
Total Income 4,412.03 3,751.64 14,152.72 12,943.14
Expenditure -1,369.30 -1,454.45 -4,241.26 -3,326.30
Interest -1.85 -13.20 -1.85 -13.20
PBDT 3,040.88 2,283.99 9,909.61 9,603.64
Depreciation -43.10 -38.68 -150.41 -138.52
PBT 2,997.78 2,245.31 9,759.20 9,465.12
Tax -1,035.64 -780.36 -3,339.12 -3,122.75
Net Profit 1,962.14 1,464.95 6,420.08 6,342.37
Equity 396.47 396.47 396.47 396.47
EPS 4.95 3.69 16.19 16.00
CEPS 5.06 3.79 16.57 16.35
OPM % 78.33 71.69 82.20 89.84
NPM % 50.51 45.72 53.24 59.25

Growth momentum to continue: NMDC has a total production capacity of ~45 MMT. Investments in doubling the
railway tracks between Chhattisgarh complex and Jagdalpur and flood loading would improve the Chhattisgarh
complexs evacuation capacity in steps over 2-3 years. This would help NMDC deliver at least 10% annual volume
growth in the next 2-3 years.
Pellet plant: Its 1.2 MMTPA pellet plant may start production from 1 October 2014. Mechanization at the
Kumarswamy mines is behind schedule and is now expected to be completed by December 2014. This, however,
will not materially affect deliveries due to the use of alternative portable crusher and road transport.
Steel project: After Mr. Narendra Kothari, ex-CEO of ISP Burnpur, SAIL, joined as CMD, and Mr AP Chaudhary, ex-
CMD of RINL got involved as a consultant, project work at the 3 MMTPA Nagarnar Steel Plant has gathered speed.
The plant should start production by January 2017.
Growth drivers: NMDC expects to enhance its presence in other states through joint ventures with respective
state mineral development corporations. In Jharkhand, it has received prospecting licenses for two iron ore blocks.
Growing demand: We expect Indian steel demand and production to accelerate over the next five years. This
would drive demand for iron ore. Given its surplus mining capacity, NMDC would be a key beneficiary. Buy NMDC
with a target price of Rs.220 in the medium-to-long-term.

Superhouse Ltd.: For walkaway gains
By Devdas Mogili
Kanpur based Superhouse (SL) Ltd. is the flagship company of the Superhouse group engaged in the manufacture of
leather products. This Rs.800 crore group is engaged in the manufacture and export of finished leather, leather products
and textile garments.
The parent company, Aminsons Leather Finishers Pvt Ltd., was incorporated in 1980 and began with a single
tannery. It was converted into a public limited company in 1984 and the name changed to Aminsons Ltd on 21 February
1989.
Five group companies: Super House Ltd., Super Garments Ltd, Sharp Leathers Ltd., Super Footwear Ltd. and Allen
Shoes Ltd, were merged with Aminsons Ltd and the name of the company was changed to Superhouse Leathers Ltd in
1996 and finally to Superhouse Ltd in 2006.
Today, the Superhouse group has emerged as one of the largest players in the Leather industry. The company took
appropriate steps to engineer, optimize and control every phase of the manufacturing process from raw material to
finished products to ensure that the end-products are of the highest quality and offer the best value for money to its
clients.
The group has four overseas companies in the UK, USA, UAE and Romania primarily engaged in marketing and
distribution of leather, leather products and textile garments.
The company manufactures finished leather, Mens, Ladies & Childrens footwear, safety footwear, leather
accessories, readymade garments, leather garments, riding products and safety wear. The Group has 15 manufacturing
units located in Kanpur, Unnao, Agra and Noida all in Uttar Pradesh. Mr. Mukhtarul Amin is the chairman and managing
director of the company.
Brands: The companys brands include Allen Cooper and Double Duty is a brand for marketing safety footwear and
garments to the Gulf countries and Europe.
Performance: For FY14, SL posted consolidated total income of Rs.757.52 crore with net profit of Rs.37.86 crore
registering an EPS of Rs.33.63 as against the FY13 EPS of Rs.20.24.
Financials: (Rs. in lakh) Standalone Consolidated
Particulars Q4FY14 Q4FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY13
Total Income I 8426. I 9 14253.46 67034.38 52149.43 75752.38 59256.00
Total expenses 16620.22 13012.85 59883.24 47321.03 67947.26 54165.30
Other Income 32.61 1 07.08 140.98 149.31 71.33 81.29
Financial Cost 498.05 323.42 1814.87 1459.57 1991.83 1615.27
Exceptional Items (70.87) (0.81) 519.26 259.89 519.71 259.89
Tax Expenses 487.17 370.44 1 713 37 1124.56 1 657 39 1,065.73
Net Profit 924.23 654.64 3244.62 2133.69 3786.29 2327.14
Equity (FV:Rs.10) 1141.98 1141.98 1141.98 1141.98 1141.98 1141.98
STOCK ANALYSIS

Re Ex Re Reserves - - 18200.27 1 5149.1 3 19871.48 16278.66
EPS (Rs) 8.38 5.94 29.43 19.35 33.63 20.24
Latest Results: For Q4FY14, it notched up a standalone total income of Rs.184.26 crore with net profit of Rs.9.24 crore
netting an EPS of Rs.8.38 against the Q4FY13 EPS of Rs.5.94.
Financials: SL has an equity base of Rs.11.42 crore with a share book value of Rs.169.37. It has a debt:equity ratio of
0.76 with RoCE of 21.15% and RoNW of 17.29%.
Share Profile: The companys share is listed on the BSE under the B group. Its share price hit a 52-week high/low of
Rs.163.80/45. At its CMP of Rs.161, it has a market capitalization of Rs.178 crore against consolidated revenues of
Rs.758 crore, which is a very attractive market cap to sales ratio.
Dividends: The company has been paying dividends as follows: FY14 -15%, FY13 - 15%, FY12 -15%, FY11 - 15%, FY10 -
12%, FY09 - 12%, FY08 - 10%.
Shareholding Pattern: The promoters hold 54.88% while the balance 45.12% is held by non- corporate promoters,
institutions and the investing public.
Prospects: The Leather Industry occupies a prominent place in the Indian economy because of its high export earnings
and is among the top 10 foreign exchange earners of the country.
The Leather industry is spread across the different segments of Finished Leather, Footwear, Footwear Components,
Leather Garments and Leather Goods including Bags, Saddlery, Harness and Leather Gloves etc. but can be broadly
divided into the three sectors featured as under:
Footwear Sector: India is the second largest footwear producer after China with an annual production of 2065 million
pairs and a huge domestic retail market of 1950 million pairs (95%). Footwear exports account for 41.14% share of
India's total leather & leather products export. The Footwear product-mix is: Gents 54%, Ladies 37% and Children 9%.
Tanning Sector: Indias annual production 2 billion sq.ft. accounts for 10% of the world leather requirement.
Leather Garments Sector: India is the second largest producer of leather garments with an annual production of 16
million pieces. It is the third largest global exporter, which accounts for 11.28% share of India's total leather exports.
Leather Goods & Accessories: India is the fifth largest global exporter with an annual production of 63 million pieces of
leather articles, 52 million pairs of Industrial gloves and 12.50 million pieces of Harness & Saddlery items that accounts
for 25.76% share of India's total leather exports.
In US Dollar terms, the export of finished leather, leather goods, saddlery & harness and non-leather footwear have
shown a positive growth. The major markets for Indian Leather & Leather Products are Germany with a share of
12.60%, UK at 11.96%, USA at 10.51%, Hong Kong at 8.82%, Italy at 8.77%, France at 6.39%, Spain at 5.34%,
Netherlands at 3.79%, China at 2.48%, Belgium at 1.86%, U.A.E at 2.53% and Australia at 1.48%. These 12 countries
together account for nearly 76.53% of India's total leather & leather products exports.
As the medium-to-long-term prospects of the Indian economy, including the industrial sector continue to be positive,
a rise in the demand for consumable products is inevitable. Since the leather industry is basically a consumer products
industry, the rising demand for consumer products the prospects of the leather industry is impressive. In FY15, the pace
of growth of the leather industry is expected to be maintained.
Conclusion: Superhouse is an established player in the footwear market with good export presence. It has carved out a
niche for itself in the country and abroad with its branded products and good track record.
At the CMP Rs.161, the SL stock discounts less than 5 times its FY14 EPS of Rs.33.63 as against the industry average
P/E of around 30. Considering its excellent performance, strong brands, low P/E multiple, attractive market cap:sales
ratio and bright future prospects makes the share an attractive pick for walkaway gains in the medium-to-long-term.

Sensex zooms on Budget hopes
By Devendra A. Singh
The BSE Sensex (30-share index) settled at 25,962.06 advancing 862.14 points and the CNX Nifty closed at 7,751.60
rising 242.80 points for the week ended Friday, 4 July 2014.
On the last day of trading, the BSE Small-Cap index climbed 88.65 points to close at 10,508.03 and the BSE Mid-Cap
index edged higher by 55.17 points to close at 9,545.75. Both the Cap-indices outperformed the Sensex.
Equity markets soared at a fresh closing high on consolidated buying by foreign funds ahead of the Union Budget
2014-15 next week. Key bourses rose in 4 out of the 5 trading sessions during the week.
On the macro-economic front, the eight core industries of coal, crude oil, oil refining, natural gas, steel, cement,
electricity and fertilizers, which have a combined weight of 37.90% in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), grew
2.3% in May 2014 as against May 2013. In April 2014, the eight core industries reported a growth of 4.2%. Its
cumulative growth during
April 2013 to May 2014
was 3.3%.
Coal production rose
5.5% in May 2014 over
May 2013. Its cumulative
index during April 2013 to
May 2014 was up by 4.4%.
Electricity generation
surged 6.3% in May 2014
from May 2013 and it
registered a cumulative
growth of 8.7% during
April 2013 to May 2014.
Fertilizer production
jumped 17.6% in May
2014 over May 2013. It
registered a cumulative
growth of 14.5% during
April 2013 to May 2014.
Cement production
surged 8.7 % in May 2014
over May 2013. Its
cumulative growth during
was 7.7%.
Natural Gas production
fell 2.2% in May 2014 over
May 2013. Its cumulative
index during April 2013 to
May 2014 tumbled over 5.
Steel production
declined 2% in May 2014
over May 2013. Its
cumulative index during
was up 0.3%.
Crude Oil production
fell 0.3% in May 2014 over
May 2013. The cumulative
MARKET REVIEW
Roongtas Panchratna

Launched on 1
st
April 2014, check out the mind-blowing performance of Panchratna
Scrip Name Recom.
Price (Rs.)
High
(Rs.)
Date of
High (Rs.)
CMP (Rs.)
25-06-14
% Gain
to High
Cheslind Textiles 4.98 9.45 12-06-14 9.00 89.76
Katare Spinning Mills 19.50 26.00 07-05-14 18.60 33.33
Trident Ltd. 18.80 27.30 09-06-14 25.80 45.21
Elecon Engineering 36.75 70.40 20-06-14 67.90 91.56
Essar Ports 50.90 97.25 10-06-14 81.60 91.06

Panchratna is a quarterly investment newsletter by our esteemed fundamental analyst,
Mr. G. S. Roongta.
The lacklustre five years between 2008 and 2013 have created a great opportunity to
invest in Penny stocks, Dark Horses and Turnaround stocks in 2014-15 and reap profits
higher than what expensive blue chips or Index based stocks can offer.
Mr. G. S. Roongta, who has acquired a name in identifying such winners early in Money
Times, will pick five such stocks below Rs.50 each for an investment horizon of 1-2 years.
Priced at Rs.2500 per quarter, Rs.4000 half-yearly & Rs.7000 annually,
the latest quarterly issue was released on 1
st
July 2014.
Book your copy now!
To subscribe, you can deposit cheque/cash or transfer the amount via RTGS/NEFT to the
company bank account:
(1) Time Communications (India) Ltd C/A 10043795661 at State Bank of India, Fort Market
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index during April 2013 to May 2014 dipped 0.2%.
Petroleum refinery production plunged 2.3% in May 2014 over May 2013. Its cumulative index during April 2013 to
May 2014 was down 2.2%.
Moreover, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released figures that showed that Indias total external debt stood at
$440.6 billion at the end of March 2014 up $31.2 billion or 7.6% from the end of March 2013.
The rise in external debt during the period was due to an increase in deposits mobilised from non-resident Indians
(NRIs), the RBI noted.
The share of Indias short-term debt in the total external debt stood at $89.2 billion or 20.3% as at 31 March 2014
compared with 23.6% at 31 March 2013, the apex bank added.
On the other hand, Indias international investment position (IIP) rose US $12.8 billion on a net basis over the
previous quarter to US $331.6 billion as on 31 March 2014.
Indian residents financial assets abroad stood at US $483.2 billion as on 31 March 2014 exhibiting an increase of US
$24.9 billion over previous quarter mainly due to increase of US $10.3 billion in Reserve assets and US $8.9 billion in
direct investment abroad.
The foreign-owned assets in India rose by US $37.8 billion over the previous quarter to US $814.8 billion mainly due
to increase of US $16.1 billion in direct investment in India and an increase of US $13.4 billion in portfolio investment in
India.
Equity liabilities rose by US $23.4 billion from US $348 billion in December 2013 to US $371.4 billion in March 2014
partly due to the stock valuation effect resulting from the Rupee appreciation while net inflow was US $12.6 billion
during the period.
On the Asian front, Chinas factory output rose to a six-month high in June 2014 on improving domestic and foreign
demand signaling that the economy is regaining strength.
The National Bureau of Statistics said that the official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) stood at 51 in June 2014
rising from 50.8 in May 2014 and in line with market expectations. A sub-index for export orders edged up to 50.3 in
June 2014 from 49.3 in May 2014.
The PMI also showed new orders as both foreign and domestic demand inched higher to 52.8 in June 2014 from 52.3
in May 2014 marking the highest reading since October 2013.
Key indices jumped on Monday, 30 June 2014, on consolidated pre-budget buying. The Sensex rallied 313.86 points
(+1.25%) to close at 25,413.78. The Nifty was up 102.55 points (+1.37%) to close at 7,611.35.
Key indices moved higher on Tuesday, 1 July 2014, on buying of stocks. The Sensex gained 102.57 points (+0.40%) to
close at 25,516.35. The Nifty was up 23.35 points (+0.31%) to close at 7,634.70.
Key indices rallied on Wednesday, 2 July 2014, ahead of the Union Budget. The Sensex surged 324.86 points
(+1.27%) to close at 25,841.21. The Nifty was up 90.45 points (+1.18%) to close at 7,725.15.
Key indices edged down on Thursday, 3 July 2014, on technical cues. The Sensex fell 17.46 points (-0.07%) to close at
25,823.75. The Nifty was down 10.35 points (-0.13%) to close at 7,714.80.
Market performance settled on an upbeat note in the last trading session on Friday, 4 July 2014, on buying by foreign
funds. The Sensex gained 138.31 points (+0.54%) to record closing high at 25,962.06. The Nifty was up 36.80 points
(+0.48%) to all-time closing high at 7,751.60.
The Sensex surged 862.14 points to close at 25,962.06 last week.
Market participants will closely look at the Budget session of Parliament, which is likely to begin on Monday, 7 July
2014, and conclude on Thursday, 14 August 2014.
The Rail Budget will be presented on Tuesday, 8 July 2014, while the Economic Survey will be tabled on Wednesday,
9 July 2014, and the Union Budget on Thursday, 10 July 2014.
Infosys, Indias one of the largest software services firm is scheduled to announce its earnings for the April-June 2014
quarter on Friday, 11 July 2014.
Investors will closely watch the monsoons progress for July-September 2014, which is a crucial factor that will
decide the market scenario ahead.

GURU SPEAK - By G. S. Roongta
Market to make new highs

The BSE Sensex hit an all time new high at 25981.51 on Friday, 4 July 2014 despite the serious setback to monsoon and
likely drought in some areas.
Besides, the tension in Iraq still continues. But luckily crude oil prices softened from US $115 to US $110 per barrel
and the Indian Rupee which had hit 60.50/US Dollar had gained ground at 59.60 on Thursday, 3 July 2014.
Thus the stock market has ignored the ongoing socio-political tension as well as the inflationary
pressure on the economy. Because of Narendra Modis thumping electoral victory, hopes of several
pending reforms and other economic issues have been ignited and rule the market sentiment.
The Union Budget 2014-15, which is scheduled to be tabled in Parliament on 10 July 2014, may
cheer most sections of society with several growth oriented initiatives. Pending reforms may be
announced and could boost the countrys economy and GDP growth from 4.7% to 5.8% in 2014-15
with the fiscal deficit at 4.5%.
The present euphoria in the stock market is based on the pragmatic policies that are likely to be
adopted in the tenure of the Modi government. A progressive budget will redress many economic ills and spur growth by
removing the bottlenecks and hurdles that come in the way of economic growth.
FIIs are very much bullish on the Indian economy and expect it to rise with galloping speed. They have pumped in
fresh funds to buy Indian equities in huge quantities last week once again after a gap of two weeks.
FIIs fresh buying turned positive from their Rs.522 crore net selling on 26 June to Rs.1288 crore buying on 30 June,
Rs.225 crore on 1 July and Rs.129 crore on 2 July 2014.
The sudden change in their positive outlook is an outcome of the bold steps taken by the Modi government to hike
Railway fares & freight, Petroleum and Gas prices and help the sugar industry by raising export duty and raising import
duty from 15% to 40% on raw sugar without worrying about inflation and the dwindling growth prospects of GDP at
large. The governments initiatives to enhance the supply chain of foodgrains and food products by issuing strict
warning against hoarding of excess stocks also had its impact.
In reality, nothing has changed or improved as far as factory production or inflation or fiscal deficit is concerned. Yet,
the market sentiment has vastly improved!
The change in the governments outlook, policy initiatives and measures to reduce subsidies with prompt and fair
action to hear public grievances is the trigger for the ongoing bullish trend in the stock market. How it will turns out in
reality is yet to be seen. But hopes and fears rule the stock markets, which always discount the future well ahead of
reality.
The BSE Sensex which fell to a low of 24878.66 in the previous week and closed at 25099.91 for the week ended
Friday, 27 June 2014 is up by nearly 1000 points from the low of the previous week, which clearly indicates that the
worst is over but the best is yet to come. Otherwise a 1000-point rise on a week-on-week basis is not only very difficult
but quite impossible. The stock market has yet to achieve dizzy heights and the ongoing bullish trend is a clear reflection
of the same not only in India but globally too.
The Dow Jones is heading towards 17K from its all time high of 15K a few months back. The FTSE at 6848 is also
speeding quickly towards 7K. So also the DAX at 9975 is near to 10,000 all time high. The change in the global outlook on
equity markets after a gap of 5 to 6 years is a global cycle after a mind boggling rise in Gold, Silver, real estate during this
period, which has now shifted toward equity markets. It is in fact a change of cycle with money chasing or flowing
towards top to bottom line. Gold-Silver, a real estate prices had reached to a dizzy height where money was finding it
difficult to climb further. So it finds a flow in the stock market, which was at a 5/6-year low. According to me, it is
nothing new but chasing real value in the available asset classes.
Economics is not an exact science that gives the same results as per a set formula at all places and at all times but
keeps on changing based on the forces of demand and supply in different circumstances. And one who has fairly long-
term view and insight benefits the most.
Several stocks in the last 6 months have shot up by 200% to 400%. A few of them hit even higher but the real
beneficiaries of such multiple gains are those who could foresee the market chemistry with close insight and
understanding of the market. When the US market made on all time high about 6-9 months ahead of us, our analysts and
technical experts were busy finding fault with our markets alarming investors of a further fall towards 2008-09 levels.
Mr. Shanker Sharma, the staunch operator, is a well-known bear who was interviewed dozens of times by CNBC to
present his bearish view about the market. This is nothing new for Money Times readers as I had always refuted his
bearish views in my column.

G. S. Roongta

Stock market is basically runs on sentiments and the sentiments are driven by analysts and technical experts. But
when they cannot catch the right trend well in time, then how can their followers miss the train at the right junction.
This is what happened this time when millions of small real investors failed to board the train no sooner the election
results were announced because of fear and experts were not sure how this bullish trend could emerge so suddenly and
so fast.
The Rain Gods have arrived although a bit late. But it does not matter if it lasts long. There is wide spread rains all
over the western part of the country since the last 3-4 days and fears of drinking water shortage are behind us. This will
boost the market sentiments further well ahead of the Union Budget on 10
th
July 2014. Going forward hereon, there are
several triggers right from the Monsoon, Railway Budget, Economic Survey and Union Budget.
In view of these triggers, the market must remain bullish till 10 July and the rest will depend on the quality of budget
proposals continued therein.
The BSE Sensex ended lower by 17.46 on Thursday, 3 July 2014, at 25,823.75 but yet 1000 points higher than the low
of the previous week and 723.84 points up from the closing of the week ended 27 June 2014.
On Friday, 4 July 2014, the market maintained its positive stance and the Sensex almost kissed 26K at 25981.51
before it finally closed at 25962.06 with a gain of 138.31.
On 1

July 2014, we released the second issue of our investment newsletter Panchratna, which has received a great
response from Money Times readers and investors.
Investors & readers who want to make good money in the current market sentiment, can subscribe to this newsletter
as it is not yet too late.

By Amit Kumar Gupta
Blue Star Infotech (Code: 532346) (CMP: Rs.181, TGT: Rs.240+)
Blue Star Infotech Ltd. together with its subsidiaries is an information technology and software services company that
provides technology, consultancy and outsourcing services in the space of mobility, cloud computing, analytics and
business intelligence, product engineering, testing, package implementation and applications services. It offers solutions
across a range of legacy and contemporary technologies for enterprises, software product companies and hardware
technology vendors. It has a global delivery network that spans across India (Mumbai and Bangalore), the USA
(Milwaukee, WI) and Singapore. Its clientele includes industries such as manufacturing, travel & hospitality, media &
entertainment, hi-tech and healthcare. Its subsidiaries include Blue Star Infotech America, Inc., Blue Star Infotech (UK)
Ltd. and Blue Star Infotech (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.
Blue Star Infotech will continue with its inorganic strategy and is looking for suitable companies for acquisition. Since it
is looking at digital transformation to keep itself in pace with the changing technological trend, the acquisitions may be
in a similar area of analytics or mobility. Earlier in FY12, it acquired a Singapore based consulting firm, Infostack
Solutions, and in FY13 it acquired a US based Analyticals firm, Activecubes.
The company is increasing focus on the Intellectual Properties (IP) business and is making investments in it. Currently,
SMAC (Social Media, Mobility, Analytics and Cloud) contributes around 16% to its total revenues, which is expected to
improve in the coming years. It has already acquired an US Analytics company Activecubes (annual turnover of ~ Rs.11
crore) in May 2013. With higher contribution
from the IP segment, we expect the company
to post margins of 10.1% in FY15E and 11.5%
in FY16.
Revenues in FY14 jumped 44% to Rs.270
crore on the back of its changed strategy.
EBIDTA margins also improved from 4.9% in
FY13 to 9.2% in FY14. Exit margins in Q4FY14
at 15.5% were due to the higher license
revenues, which may not sustain in future.
Going forward, we expect sales to grow at a
CAGR of 27% during FY15 and FY16 and
EBIDTA to grow at a CAGR of 41% on the back
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of lower direct costs and have not incorporated any numbers of expected inorganic growth.
Valuation: Blue Star has been growing at a CAGR of 46% between FY12 and FY14 and we expect the company to grow
at a CAGR of 27% between FY15E and FY16E. We have a Buy on the stock, which trades at a P/E of 6.8/4.7
for FY15E/FY16E for a price target of Rs.240.
Technical Outlook: The Blue Star Infotech stock is very strong on the daily chart and looks good for medium-term
investment. The stock has been making higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart and is very strong in all time
frames. It is trading above all important moving averages like 200-DMA & 100-DMA and has broken out of a double
bottom formation in the longer time frame.
Start accumulating at CMP and on dips to Rs.140 for the medium-to-long-term investment and price target of Rs.240+ in
the next 6 months.
********
Pidilite Industries (Code: 500331) (CMP: Rs.333, TGT: Rs.370+)
Pidilite Industries Ltd. is a holding company that operates in three segments: Consumer & Bazaar Products, Industrial
Products and Others. Consumer & Bazaar Products consist of adhesives, sealants, art materials and construction
chemicals used by carpenters, painters, plumbers, mechanics, households, students, offices. Industrial Products consists
of industrial adhesives, synthetic resins, organic pigments, pigment preparations, surfactants that cater to packaging,
textiles, paints, printing inks, paper and leather industries. Others include the vinyl acetate monomer (VAM)
manufacturing unit of Vinyl Chemicals (India) Ltd. The companys subsidiaries include Fevicol Company Ltd, Bhimad
Commercial Co Pvt Ltd, Madhumala Traders Pvt Ltd, Pidilite International Pte Ltd and Pidilite Middle East Ltd.
Its bread & butter business of adhesives and sealant is on a strong footing as Pidilite is the undisputed leader with a
market share of 70%. Its strong brand equity, innovative product offerings, pricing power and an extensive distribution
network are the four pillars of the company. A 10-year revenue and earnings CAGR of 20% is remarkable, which is likely
to be sustained going forward. Product innovations and deeper penetration into the rural hinterland are the key growth
drivers. Consumer and bazaar products will sustain the growth. The strengthening brand equity of Fevicol, Fevi Kwik, M-
seal, Dr. Fixit and Fevi Stik backed by strong distribution have contributed to this.
While the flagship adhesives & sealants segment is growing at 17% CAGR, construction chemicals and art material, albeit
with lower revenue contribution, have grown at a faster clip of 24% and 28% CAGR. Sustenance of these growth drivers
should ensure 15-20% (CAGR) in the consumer and bazaar segment on a sustainable basis. Industrial products business
will revive from hereon led by the new government, renewed confidence and better macroeconomic conditions. Export
is another growth driver for industrial products because of which the industrial segment will grow at 16% CAGR over
FY15-16E.
Pidilites restructuring initiatives in Brazil and the Middle East and the sustained growth momentum in Southeast Asia
will result in international operations. A 20% profit CAGR and low capex will drive the free cash flow (FCF) and ROCE of
35%. The company has maintained a strong balance sheet and cashflows despite investments in the domestic business,
its Elastomer project and global acquisitions. A healthy earnings CAGR of 20% led by the domestic business, capex
limited only to domestic operations and tight working capital should drive free cash flows (FCF) of Rs.530 crore in
FY16E. With ROCE of 36%, the payout is likely to rise to 40% by FY16E, which points to price target of Rs.360/share.
Technical Outlook: The Pidilite Industries stock is very strong on the daily chart as it has been making higher highs and
higher lows and is very strong in all time frames. It is also trading above all important moving averages like 200-DMA &
100-DMA and has broken out of a triangle pattern in the longer time frame.
Start accumulating at CMP and on dips to Rs.300 for medium-to-long-term investment and price target of Rs.370+ in the
next 6 months.

By Rupesh M. Daga
* Torrent Power Ltd. (Code: 532779) (Rs.157) has been recommended twice earlier. First at Rs.90 level
whereafter it rose to a high of Rs.130 and again in March 2014 whereafter it made a new 52-week high of Rs.172.
Keeping in mind, the changed politic-economic environment, we recommend this scrip again at the current level
for decent appreciation in the medium-to-long-term.
Torrent Power Ltd. (TPL) is one of the leading companies in the Indian power sector. It was promoted by the
Ahmedabad based Torrent group of which Torrent Pharma is the flagship company. The group foresaw the prospects in
FIFTY FIFTY

the power sector much before the liberalization when it took over
an ailing power cable company in 1989, which is now known as
Torrent Cables, and successfully turned it around. Thereafter, TPL
acquired two of Indias oldest utilities The Surat Electricity
Company Ltd and The Ahmedabad Electricity Company Ltd. Today,
it has a generation capacity of about 1700 MW and distributes
power to over 3 million customers in Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar
and Surat in Gujarat, in Bhiwandi near Mumbai in Maharashtra and
in Agra in U.P. It is currently implementing a 1200 MW gas based
power project at Dahej in Gujarat.
Recently, group Chairman Sudhir Mehta exited the pharma
business to focus on the power business while his younger brother
has taken charge of the pharma business. With Sudhir Mehta taking charge, TPL is all set to fly. TPL recently authorized
its Board to appoint appropriate consultants/advisors to re-organize the company including merger, demerger,
forward/backward integration, sale of any division, etc in view of the declining profits. Another major positive for TPL a
few months back was a judgment from a Gujarat regulatory agency that allowed for a pass through of the variance in the
fuel supply. The impact of this move is close to Rs.600 crore per year over the next two years and resulted in the stock
breaking out of the Rs.80 levels. But even at the current valuations the market has not factored in this huge positive as
the stock can easily appreciate over 50% from the current levels, which makes it a very safe investment for the long-
term.
* Asahi Songwon Colors (Code: 532853) (Rs.117) is a niche player in the Indian pigment and dyes industry
and intends to become a global manufacturer of pigments. The company manufactures pigments Green 7/Cpc Beta Blue
and Blue Crude exporting substantial production to leading MNCs across the world. Its manufacturing plants are at
Mehsana and Vadodara in Gujarat.
Its products find application in the Paint, PVC and Plastic, Rubber, Solvent and Printing ink industries among others.
The company has recently concluded a major capacity expansion for the Beta Blue pigment having nearly doubled
capacity. In the past, it fell short of capacities for this pigment and went slow on new customer additions. Its major
clients include global chemical giants like DIC of Japan, BASF and Clariant Chemicals.
The demand for its products is buoyant overseas as many developed countries have banned the production of these
hazardous chemicals.
The stock trades at a P/E multiple of around 10x, which is cheap considering the growth prospects, its MNC clientele
and the niche segment that it operates in.
* Zensar Technologies (Code: 504067) (Rs.448): With stocks spanning across industries becoming expensive,
investors should turn their focus on relatively cheaper software stocks which have not participated in the recent rally
and are still available at attractive valuations. The Rupee is still hovering around 60 to the US Dollar level, which
presents no harm to the IT sector as a whole.
Zensar is a technology partner of choice for global organizations looking to strategically transform, grow and lead in
todays challenging business environment. The company is among the top 20 services provider from India. It is the
worlds first enterprise wide SEI CMM Level 5 Company that was later certified as CMMI level 5 company with industry
expertise that spans retail, banking, insurance, utilities, healthcare and life sciences.
Owing to its growth in recent times, the company has moved up the NASSCOM listing to 19
th
place and expects to rise
even faster in the coming months. It is one of ORACLEs most valuable partners and has a platinum partnership
worldwide. It also has a very strong relationship with Google in cloud computing and a few months back was awarded
the Most Valuable Partner by CISCO, which contributes over 20% to its topline.
The company has a very ambitious targets and plans to become a $1 billion company by FY16. Mr. Ganesh Natrajan,
the CEO and Vice-Chairman, has set this target can be trusted as he has been delivering promised returns over the years.
The company is also very liberal in paying dividends. The US market contributes about 71% of its revenue, UK stands at
9%, and other markets like Africa, Middle East and India contribute close to 20%. Backed by a strong track record of
innovation, near 6500+ associates, and a footprint in over 20 global locations, Zensars comprehensive range of software
services and solutions enables its 400+ clients to cross new thresholds in business performance.
At the CMP of Rs.448 the Zensar stock trades at a P/E multiple of less than 9x, which is close to its 5-year average P/E
ratio. However, considering the aggressive plans of its management, the Zensar Technologies stock could impart decent
gains to ones portfolio in the short-to-medium-term.
Review
Many of the stocks like Granules India, Alicon
Castalloy, Jyoti Structures, Elecon Engineering,
Saint Gobain Glass, Sunshield Chemicals, BGR
Energy, Bank of India, Kesoram Inds., Gujarat
Pipavav, Amtek Auto, Ahmednagar Forgings, PTC
India Financial recommended by Rupesh M. Daga
in this column have all appreciated between 100%
to 200%. He now advises investors to book partial
profits in all these stocks.

* Polaris Financial Technology (Code: 532254) (Rs.232): Founded in 1993, Polaris is a global leader in
Financial Technology for the Banking, Insurance and Financial Services domain. It offers superior technology solutions
through its two specialized divisions - FT Services and FT Products that offer clients unprecedented operational
efficiency.
The company carried out the largest internal restructuring exercise last year after the takeover of Orbitech, the
software arm of Citigroup some 11 years ago. The company has appointed three CEOs to focus on global transactions,
core banking, insurance and another CEO to head the services business. These changes, the company hopes, will make
each of its three product divisions at least $100 million each in size. Together with Services, which it expects to grow to
$500 million, the company expects to join the billion dollar league in the next three years.
Till now, Polaris was being perceived as a commodity player in services because of which its stock trades at 5-6 times
earnings, compared to other midcap IT firms, which trade at 10x. But with the product business gaining traction, all this
is about to change. We believe that the restructuring will result in higher valuation for Polaris and the stock can easily
appreciate 50% from the current level.

By Vihari
RS Software: Sure to surge
Heavy investment buying has been reported in the counter of RS Software (India) Ltd. (RSSIL) (Code: 517447)
(Rs.288) as this small cap gateway payment software major is all set to post an EPS of Rs.50 in FY15.
RSSIL is a vertically integrated technology solution provider to the electronic payments industry. It operates in four
continents with its USA headquarters in the Silicon Valley, offices in UK, Singapore and Corporate headquarters in
Kolkata, West Bengal. The company has been in business for two decades providing solutions to Payment Networks,
Processors, Acquirers, Issuers, ISOs and other major players in the electronic payments domain. The company maintains
the highest standards of compliance, security and quality including the ISO 9001:2008, SEI-PCMM Level 3 and ISO
27001:2005 Information Security certifications. In FY14, USA accounted for 91% of sales while the balance 9% of
revenue comes from rest of the world.
RS Software (India) Ltd. (RSSIL) was incorporated as a private limited company on 2 December 1987 and was
converted into a public limited company on 5 February 1992. Over the years, it has grown with the global leaders in the
electronic payments industry backed by strong application management fundamentals that continue to power its core
execution engine. It has offices in the USA, UK, Singapore and India, employing over 900 professionals. Some of its
marquee clients are Visa, Visa EU, Visa CEMEA, Maclane, Pemco, Vignon.
RSSIL offers customised application development for platform, cloud, e-commerce and mobile environments using a
comprehensive spectrum of development tools and methodologies including SSAD/OOAD, classic/relaxed waterfall,
classic/relaxed spiral, RUP, agile and prototyping. New payment instruments, mergers, restructuring, mandates and
system migrations put pressure on payment operations creating a near constant need for testing.
RSSIL offers a diverse portfolio of testing services that include functional testing, regression testing, security and
compliance testing, integration testing, performance testing, compatibility testing and test automation. It offers
comprehensive application lifecycle
management services that include
maintenance of adding new functionality to
and providing support for existing
applications.
It has fixed bid, time and materials, and
hybrid pricing options as well as the choice
of an engagement model that includes the
full range of managed services. Its strategic
consulting services help clients align their
technology initiatives with their business
needs to drive growth and achieve the
optimal return on investment (ROI).
For Q4FY14, net profit after minority
share soared 88.2% to Rs.16 crore on 22%
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higher revenue of Rs.93.2 crore. The OPM and NPM stood at 22.1% and 17% vs 18.8% and 11.2% respectively in
Q4FY13. The Q4FY14 EPS stood at Rs.12.5.
For FY14, consolidated net profit after minority interest rose 44.6% to Rs.51.2 crore on 20% higher sales of Rs.381.9
crore. The OPM and NPM stood at 22% and 14% vs 17% and 11.9% respectively in FY13 and the FY14 consolidated EPS
stood at Rs.40. With the final proposed dividend of 25%, total dividend for FY14 worked out to 60%.
RSSILs equity capital is Rs.12.8 crore and with reserves of Rs.163 crore, the book value its works out to Rs.137.
RSSIL is a zero-debt company. As at 31 March 2014, its cash & cash equivalent including term deposits, investments in
mutual funds and short-term loans stood at Rs.100.5 crore or Rs.78.5 per share. The promoters hold 38.5% stake in the
company, FIIs hold 3.7%, PCBs hold 9.6%, DIs hold 2.6% and NRIs hold 1.6% leaving 43.8% with the investing public.
Globally, the electronic payments industry is going through a major growth evolution. Given the intersection of
technological advancements and cultural changes that facilitate the shift from paper money to digital currency, the
volume and value of electronic payment transactions are projected to grow multifold over the next several years.
Payments appears to be a ripe area for disruption - new technologies are changing the relationship between
consumers and merchants. Globally, the electronic payments industry has seen an explosive growth with transactional
revenues in the segment touching $900 billion (nearly Rs.54,00,000 crore). The business of payments hinges on
processing and storing large volumes of transaction data.
RSSIL sees demand recovery in the USA, which bodes well for its business given its high exposure to the USA market.
It continues to put significant thrust on innovations and in building competencies through the Payments Lab and School
of Payments. RSSIL is confident that given the improving market conditions and the potential growth in the electronic
payments industry, it will enjoy a high growth trajectory.
Its sustained focus on the merchant acquiring aspect of the payment landscape, procedural improvements in CRM,
focus on e-mail marketing to generate strong business response and undergoing initiatives to strengthen the team and
process to give strong revenue visibility going forward.
Based on the current going and the bright future prospects of the industry, RSSIL is expected to post an EPS of Rs.50
in FY15 and Rs.56 in FY16. At the CMP of Rs.288, the share trades at a P/E multiple of 5.76 on FY15 estimated earnings
and 5.14 times the FY16 projected earnings. A conservative P/E of just 7.5 will take its share price to Rs.375 in the
medium-term and Rs.420 thereafter. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.301/102.
*******
PC Jewellers Ltd.: Sparkling gains
The counter of PC Jeweller Ltd. (PCJL) (Code: 534809) (Rs.143) has witnessed sizeable investment buying as this
jewellery major has maintained its performance in FY14 (EPS of Rs.19.9) despite the difficult period and its FY15 EPS is
expected to rise 25% to Rs.25. The share trades at a forward P/E of 5 has all the potential to appreciate by 30% in the
medium term.
PCJL started operations in April 2005 with one showroom at Karol Bagh in Delhi. It is a first generation business
promoted by Padam Chand Gupta and Balram Garg. It has set up three jewellery manufacturing facilities at Selaqui,
Uttarakhand and Noida SEZ in Uttar Pradesh that cater to its domestic/export sales.
PCJL tapped the primary market in December 2012 with an issue of 4.51 crore shares at a price of Rs.125/share
aggregating Rs.564 crore for expansion and has been expanding its presence in the retail segment. Its business model
consists of opening large format, stand alone stores at high street locations. The stores stock a wide range of jewellery
across all price points with an increasing focus on diamond jewellery. It sells only hallmarked jewellery and certified
diamond jewellery. PCJLs retail presence is spread
in Metros, Tier-I as well as Tier-II towns and it will
continue to open stores as per the existing pattern
only. It has been opening showrooms at regular
intervals and today has strength of 43 stores
spread over 35 cities.
Its assurance on quality & purity along with
transparent & customer friendly policies has
enabled PCJL to become an established and trusted
brand name in a short time span.
For Q4FY14, net profit rose 1.5% to Rs.83.6
crore on 34.3% higher revenue of Rs.1536.1 crore
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and the quarterly EPS stood at Rs.4.7. For FY14, consolidated net profit rose 22.4% to Rs.356.3 c. on 32.5% higher sales
of Rs.5324.8 crore. The FY14 EPS stood at Rs.19.9 and a dividend of 15% has been declared. Segment wise, exports
constituted 25% of the total turnover but contributed 31% of the overall operating profits.
PCJLs equity capital is Rs.179.1 crore and with reserves of Rs.1503 crore, the book value of its share works out to
Rs.94. The debt:equity ratio is 0.62:1 and the value of its gross block is about Rs.106 crore. Cash and cash equivalent,
including short-term loans and current investments stood at Rs.1044 crore. The promoters hold 71% in the equity
capital, Foreign holding is 13%, PCBs hold 7% and with 3% held by DIs leaves 6% with the investing public.
PCJL added 6 new show rooms in FY13, 11 showrooms in FY14 and plans to add 15 new showrooms in FY15 and
take the total to 56. Two showrooms were added in May and June 2014.
PCJLs focus is on the high-ticket wedding jewellery segment, which constitutes 60-65% of total jewellery sales in
India. The average selling price of its jewellery is around Rs.1.25 lakh. It, therefore, prefers to strategically set up large
format showrooms of 8,000-11,000 sq ft in large cities and between 4,000 sq ft and 5,000 sq ft in smaller cities to target
wedding customers. Large format stores help it to capture the demand for high ticket value wedding jewellery and give
it a competitive advantage against both organised and unorganized players.
PCJL maintained exports share at 24.8% in FY14 to ensure availability of gold under the 80:20 scheme and will
continue to do so. It has been participating in global jewellery exhibitions to tap new overseas markets and maintain its
export share to ensure availability of gold for domestic operations.
The $40 billion Indian jewellery industry dominated by the unorganised sector (85% of the market) is the largest
globally and is growing at 15% p.a. India is the largest consumer of gold and jewellery constitutes the bulk of gold
consumption. Jewellery consumption in India is essentially driven by the underlying status associated with gold
especially at weddings.
Gold is also considered a safe haven for savings, mostly in rural areas owing to the lack of any major alternative
investment options supported by its anti-inflationary characteristic. Rural and non-urban markets account for 70% of
the total gold consumption and have reported an increasing appetite for gold jewellery.
The market is hugely underpenetrated and there is ample scope for all new entrants. Given the rising media and
western influences, consumers are more inclined towards branded jewellery and are willing to pay a premium for it. In
the past few years, many domestic companies have opened gems and jewellery speciality stores in India to meet the
changing taste of local populace and have also opened stores abroad to serve the Indian diaspora in countries where
demand for traditional Indian crafted jewellery is high.
Compared to other large traditional/regional players, PCJL has expanded at a faster pace and has been able to break
even within just two years of operations of its new stores. Also, PCJL has better profit margins and has been able to
maintain these margins despite aggressive retail expansion. The shift from unbranded jewellery to branded jewellery
also provides a cushion to co-exist and compete on customer loyalty, variety and quality assurance.
Although the overall jewellery industry demand growth was slow in the last few quarters, there has been continuous
shift of demand from unorganized to organized sector. This has been a strong driver for sales growth for large organized
players like PCJL, which feels that improvement in the overall economy, with a strong government in place, is expected
to boost the sentiments leading to increased consumer appetite.
PCJL has devised a four-pronged strategy to gain market share: retail expansion, focus on high-ticket wedding and
diamond jewellery, managing gold price volatility through metal loans and customer-oriented marketing initiatives.
Based on the high ticket size of jewellery and the companys continued focus on this segment, the wedding jewellery
segment is expected to show steady growth going forward.
The cluster strategy has helped PCJL to achieve scalability, increased brand awareness, better operating efficiency
and a huge customer base. For instance, noting that the customers from the region where the company operates share
similar taste for jewellery, PCJ uses this characteristic to selling items in different stores for better inventory
management and achieve economies of scale by producing similar designs.
In view of the stable government and expected good policies to be announced for the diamond industry and GDP
growth moving up in FY15, PCJL is expected to do well in FY15 with a likely EPS of Rs.25. At the CMP of Rs.143, the share
trades at a P/E ratio of 7.2 on FY14 earnings and 5.72 times the on FY15 estimated EPS. A conservative P/E of just 6.5
will take the share price to Rs.175+ in the medium term. The 52-week high/low of the share has been Rs.150.70/66.

TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel

Austin Engineering Company Ltd.
Code: 522005
CMP: Rs.82.90
Austin Engineering Company Ltd. (AECL) manufactures and supplies
auto and industrial ball and roller bearings and its components in
India and overseas. It offers ball bearings including deep groove,
angular contact, self aligning, thin section and thrust ball bearings;
cylindrical roller bearings comprising radial and thrust bearings;
needle roller bearings; tapered roller bearings; spherical roller
bearings; flexible roller bearings; super precision bearings such as
contact bearings, cylindrical roller bearings, and axial ball bearings
for machine tools' spindle. The company also provides special
purpose bearings for steel plant bearings, oil field application
bearings, earthmover bearings, and thermal power plant bearings;
bearings for mining and quarry sector, cement plants, and paper
mills; and cylindrical and taper roller bearings for various
production units of the railways.
AECL markets its products under the AEC trademark. It serves engineering equipment manufacturers, steel plants
and steel rolling mills, process industries, automotive industries, textile machinery manufacturers, power plants, road
transport undertakings, railways, atomic energy applications, OEMs, and replacement markets. The company also
exports its products. In addition, it manufactures power from wind
energy. The company was founded in 1973 and is based at Junagadh in
Gujarat.
AECL has an equity of Rs.3.48 crore supported by huge reserves of
around Rs.52.60 crore leading to a share book value of Rs.158.79. The
promoters hold 34.57% while the investing public holds 65.23% stake
in the company.
It has reported strong numbers for Q4FY14, wherein PAT zoomed
288.46% to Rs.1.01 crore from Rs.0.26 crore in Q4FY13. For FY14, net
profit rose to Rs.3.52 crore from Rs.3.17 crore in FY13. Total turnover for FY14 was Rs.90.31 crore as against Rs.88.89
crore in FY13. It reported an EPS of Rs.10.12 for FY14.
It is a regular dividend paying company and has declared 15% for FY14.
It may declare Rs.115 crore turnover with Rs.4.65 crore net profit in FY15 and may declare Rs.135 crore turnover
with Rs.6.30 crore net profit in FY16. At its current market price, the AECL share discounts less than 6 times its FY15(E)
EPS of Rs.13.36 and less than 4.5 times its FY16 projected EPS of Rs.18.1, which is much cheaper than its peers. The
stock appears undervalued and is likely to attract value buying at this level.
Investors can buy this stock with stop loss of Rs.65. On the upper side, the stock will zoom to Rs.105 levels in the
medium-term and to Rs.130 level in the long-term. Its all-time high price is Rs.159.

Last 5 years performance: (Rs. in crore)
Year Net Sales Net Profit EPS (Rs.)
2009-10 70.15 6.42 18.47
2010-11 87.43 6.30 18.11
2011-12 106.65 6.61 19.01
2012-13 88.89 3.17 9.12
2013-14 90.31 3.52 10.12
2014-15 (E) 115 4.65 13.36
2015-16 (E) 135 6.30 18.10
Review
On 19 May 2014, we recommended Menon
Bearings at Rs.52.45. In just 3 weeks, it
zoomed to Rs.91 recording 73.50% gains.
On 14 April 2014, we recommended Samkrg
Piston at Rs.67. Within 2.5 months, it zoomed
58.20% to Rs.106.
On 3 March 2014, we recommended Linc Pen
at Rs.49.60 and in 4 months, it has risen to
Rs.78 and recorded 57.25% gains.
On 24 February 2014, we recommended
Ultramarine & Pigments at Rs.51. In over 4
months, it rose to Rs.78 and recorded 53%
gains.


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