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Greenhouse Gasses Global

Warming and Its Impact


Dr. Shahid Amjad
Institute of Business Management
(IoBM)
The Greenhouse Gasses
Six main greenhouse gases are
carbon dioxide (CO
2
),
methane (CH
4
) (which is 20 times as potent a
greenhouse gas, as carbon dioxide)
nitrous oxide (N
2
O), plus
three fluorinated industrial gases:
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and
sulphur hexafluoride (SF
6
).
Water vapor is also considered a greenhouse gas.
The greenhouse effect is the rise in temperature on
Earth as certain gases in the atmosphere trap energy.

Climate changes are long term process while weather is short term
that varies from one place to another and is determined by
temperature and various meteorological conditions such as.
Precipitation
Wind,
glaciations
Extreme events, typhoon, hurricanes etc.
The most important attribute of climate change is temperature
variation. (caused by excessive amounts of green house gases)
The evidences gathered by climatologists from tree rings, changes in
sea level etc have shown that our planet has maintained an average
temperature within a limited range, but seems to be changing
continuously.
Sunlight absorbed by the oceans and land masses keeps the surface
at an average temperature of 14 C
Thus to predict future impacts of anthropogenic activities on the
global climate and consequently on key environmental parameters, a
mathematical model needs to be developed that explains the past.

In the 1880 - 1935 period, the temperature anomaly was consistently negative. In contrast,
since 1980 the anomaly has been consistently positive. The 1917 temperature anomaly
(-0.47
o
C) was the lowest year on record. Since 1917, global temperature has warmed, with the
most recent years showing the highest anomalies of +0.6
o
C in the past 120 years.
What is the Greenhouse Effect?

The term greenhouse is used in conjunction with the
phenomenon known as the greenhouse effect.
70% of energy our planet received from the sun drives the
earths weather and climate, as it heats up the earths
/ocean surface; while the rest is absorbed by clouds,
oceans and land masses.
In turn, the earth radiates 30% energy back into space;
Some atmospheric gases (carbon dioxide, water vapor, and
other gases) trap some of the outgoing energy, retaining
heat somewhat like the glass panels of a greenhouse;
Trapping heat is good to a certain extent (avg. Global temp.
14 C), if no heat was trapped the avg. Global temp -19 C).
Thus the atmosphere has a big role for maintaining the
right temperature for sustaining life on earth

GHE#1 - natural
Earths Natural Greenhouse Effect
GHE#2 - humans
Human-caused Global Warming
GHE#3 - text
The science of global warming is based on well-
understood physical principles. There is NO
scientific debate about this!
Due to human activities, there are now 40% more
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere than there
were a hundred years ago. (5 bn tons of
excessive CO
2
)

The Earth has already warmed as the
consequence of this, and scientists expect that
the next 20 to 100 years the world will warm a lot
more! (1-5 C). For every 1 C rise, 7% increase in
water vapor. (IPCC)
The climate has always varied in the past.
How is this any different?
Throughout Earths history the climate has
varied, sometimes considerably.
Past warming does not automatically mean
that todays warming is therefore also natural.
Recent warming, has been shown to be due to
human industrialization processes.

Warming of Climate
Warming of the climate is definitely occurring
and can be observed by the:
Increases in global sea and air temperatures
Widespread melting of snow and ice in the
northern areas.
Rising global sea level.
Pakistans contribution towards Green House
Gases (GHS) is negligible (<0.8%).

What is Global Warming and Climate Change?
Global warming and climate change refer to an
increase in average global temperatures.
Natural events and human activities are
believed to be contributing to an increase in
average global temperatures. This is caused
primarily by increases in greenhouse gases
such as Carbon Dioxide (CO
2
).
A warming planet thus leads to a change in
climate which can affect weather in various
ways.

Atmospheric CO
2
Concentrations
Global Surface Temperatures
What are the main indicators of Climate
Change?

The US agency, the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), suggests
10 indicator,
7 indicators that would be expected to
increase in a warming world. While 3
indicators (ice and snow) would be on the
decline.

Based on comprehensive data from multiple sources, there are reportedly
10 measurable planet-wide features used to gauge global temperature
changes. The relative movement of each of these indicators proves
consistent with a warming world. Seven indicators are rising:
1. air temperature over land,
2. sea-surface temperature,
3. air temperature over oceans,
4. sea level,
5. ocean heat,
6. humidity and
7. tropospheric temperature in the active-weather layer of the atmosphere
closest to the Earths surface.
Three indicators are declining:
1. Arctic sea ice,
2. glaciers and
3. spring snow cover in the Northern hemisphere.

Glaciers and sea ice are melting, heavy rainfall is intensifying and heat
waves are more common. And, as the new report tells us, there is now
evidence that over 90 percent of warming over the past 50 years has gone
into our ocean.
In addition to the natural fluxes of carbon through the Earth
system, anthropogenic (human) activities, particularly fossil fuel
burning and deforestation, are also releasing carbon dioxide into
the atmosphere.
When we mine coal and extract oil from the Earths crust, and
then burn these fossil fuels for transportation, heating, cooking,
electricity, and manufacturing, we are effectively moving carbon
more rapidly into the atmosphere than is being removed
naturally through the sedimentation of carbon, ultimately
causing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to increase.
Also, by clearing forests to support agriculture, we are
transferring carbon from living biomass into the atmosphere (dry
wood is about 50 percent carbon).
The result is that humans are adding ever-increasing amounts of
extra carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Because of this,
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are higher today
than they have been over the last half-million years or longer.

The above covers hundreds of thousands of years and shows how atmospheric CO
2
levels
have dramatically increased in recent years. If we zoom in on just the past 250 years, we
see the above rising CO2 pattern
values shown represent Carbon Gigatons being absorbed and released
This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and
more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO
2
has increased
since the Industrial Revolution:
Sea level rise

Republic of Maldives:
Vulnerable to sea level
rise
Global sea level rose
about 17 centimeters
(6.7 inches) in the last
century.
The rate in the last
decade, however, is
nearly double that of
the last century.
Global temperature rise

major global surface temperature
show that Earth has warmed
since 1880.

Most of this warming has
occurred since the 1970s, with
the 20 warmest years having
occurred since 1981 and with all
10 of the warmest years
occurring in the past 12 years.

Even though the 2000s witnessed
a solar output decline resulting in
an unusually deep solar minimum
in 2007-2009, surface
temperatures continue to
increase.
Warming oceans
The oceans have
absorbed much of this
increased heat, with the
top 700 meters (about
2,300 feet) of ocean
showing warming of
0.302 degrees
Fahrenheit since 1969.
Shrinking ice sheets

The Greenland and
Antarctic ice sheets have
decreased in mass. Data
from NASA's Gravity
Recovery and Climate
Experiment show
Greenland lost 150 to 250
cubic kilometers (36 to 60
cubic miles) of ice per
year between 2002 and
2006,
while Antarctica lost
about 152 cubic
kilometers (36 cubic
miles) of ice between
2002 and 2005.
Flowing meltwater from the Greenland ice
sheet
Arctic sea ice
Declining Arctic sea ice
Both the extent and
thickness of Arctic sea
ice has declined rapidly
over the last several
decades.
The extent of floating sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, as measured at its annual
minimum in September, showed a steady decline between 1980 and 2009.
Extreme events
The number of record
high temperature events
in the United States,
Europe has been
increasing, while the
number of record low
temperature events has
been decreasing, since
1950.
The U.S. and Asian
countries have also
witnessed increasing
numbers of intense
rainfall events.
Ocean acidification

The carbon dioxide
content of the Earths
oceans has been
increasing since 1750,
and is currently
increasing about 2
billion tons per year.
This has increased
ocean acidity by about
30 percent.
Ocean Acidification; consumption of carbonate ions impede calcification.
Source: Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory, NOAA
More CO
2
in the atmosphere means more CO
2
in the ocean;
Atmospheric CO
2
is dissolved in the ocean, which becomes more acidic; and
The resulting changes in the chemistry of the oceans disrupts the ability of
plants and animals in the sea to make shells and skeletons of calcium
carbonate, while dissolving shells already formed.
Scientists have found that oceans are able to absorb some of the excess CO
2

released by human activity. This has helped keep the planet cooler than it
otherwise could have been had these gases remained in the atmosphere.
However, the additional excess CO
2
being absorbed is also resulting in the
acidification of the oceans: When CO
2
reacts with water it produces a weak
acid called carbonic acid, changing the sea water chemistry.
One example of recent findings is a tiny sand grain-sized plankton responsible
for the sequestration of 2550% of the carbon the oceans absorb is affected
by increasing ocean acidification. This tiny plankton plays a major role in
keeping atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations at much lower
levels than they would be otherwise so large effects on them could be quite
serious.
Each day, the oceans absorb 30 million tonnes of CO2 and if forams can no
longer play their role in this carbon storage system then atmospheric
concentrations of CO2 could skyrocket with calamitous effects on the global
climate system.
There is absolutely no controversy about the
basic chemistry of additional CO2 increasing
ocean acidity.
The oceans naturally absorb carbon from the
atmosphere and have now absorbed about a
third of the total amount of human emissions.
This additional carbon has altered the oceans'
chemistry, making them 25 to 30 percent more
acidic because the extra CO2 combines with
carbonate ions in seawater, forming carbonic
acid.
Shell-forming creatures - mussels, corals, hard
planktons, shrimps and many more - all need
those carbonate ions to build their shells.

Rank Event
When
Occurred
Event Description
More
Information
1
Russian -
European -
Asian Heat
Waves
Summer
A severe summer spawned drought, wildfires
and crop failures across western Russia,
where more than 15,000 people died. All-time
high temperatures occurred in many cities and
nations in the region. China faced locust
swarms during July.
NCDC
Global
Hazards
2
2010 as
[near]
warmest
year on
record
calendar
year
According to NOAA, the globally-averaged
temperature for 2010 will finish among the two
warmest, and likely the warmest, on record.
Three months in 2010 were the warmest on
record for that month.
NCDC
Global
Report
3
Pakistani
Flooding
Late
July
August
2010
Rainfall related to the Asian Monsoon was
displaced unusually westward, and more than
a foot of rain fell across a large area of the
Upper Indus Valley. Subsequent flooding
down the Indus River killed 1,600 people and
displaced millions.
NCDC
Global
Hazards,
NASA
Imagery
Adaption to Climate Change
Adaptation is necessary not only to respond to the
projected changes in climate but also because climate
change is already affecting many ecosystems.
Adaptation activities can have negative, neutral or
positive impacts on biodiversity.
Adaptation activities that can have a negative impact
on biodiversity include: the construction of artificial
coastal protection, changed water management
practices, and new cultivation methods such as
mariculture or aquaculture, that is introduced to
coastal ecosystems, new species can be a potential to
become invasive species threatening and destabilizing
established ecosystems.
Impact of Climate Change on Pakistan
Forecast models for climate change and increasing temperatures for
Pakistan predicts:
increased flooding,
Increase in Poverty
rock avalanches,
Disruptions in water resource as the Himalayan glaciers continue to melt.
Floods exceeding design parameters could destroy the dams, barrages, and
other fixed-capacity irrigation infrastructure on which the countrys
agriculture depends.
The risk of hunger will also increase because of declining crop productivity
owing to heat stress.
Other areas of concern include:
i. the further intrusion of saline water along the Sindh coastal zone due to an
accelerated rise in sea level;
ii. more and stronger cyclones caused by rising sea surface temperatures
that will affect Karachi and other coastal settlements;
iii heat strokes brought on by summer temperature spikes; and
iv. the spread of disease vectors encouraged to breed in stagnant water
bodies during mild winters.