Nirma University

Institute of Mangement
MBA (FT), 2014-1 Bat!"
Assignment 1
#TM-1
$e!tion %
Instru!tions
a. This is a group assignment.
b. Clearly define your events/random variables if any.
c. Except questions related to probability, all other questions are supposed to solve
using excel/MIIT!". #lease go through the respective chapters to $no% ho% to
use excel/MIIT!".
d. &o analysis using excel/Minitab and transport your ans%ers and conclusions if
any to your report '(ord file) %ith relevant steps.
e. *ou are supposed to submit hard copy of the report and soft copy of the excel
calculations %ith sheets indicating the question number.
f. The title page of your report should consists of the follo%ing+
irma ,niversity logo, #rogramme name %ith batch, Course name, exam name
'i.e. !ssignment/qui-/ etc.), .roup number, .roup members name %ith roll
numbers and submission date.
g. #lease attach the assignment questions %ith your report.
&oo' (u!)
1) The follo%ing table represents the distribution of %ee$ly %age rates '((/) of a
selected group of senior typists.
((/
'0)
12314 14315 15346 46347 47382 82384
91 15 75 :7 89 49
((/
'0)
84385 85376 76377 773:2 :23:4
; of
typists
65 92 8 6 9
a) &ra% a histogram
b) (hat %ould be the percentage of %or$ers fail to obtain a %age of 046<
c) &ra% a less than ogive to the above data
d) =ind >9, >6, >1 and I>/
2) In a paper entitled ?The Effects of @elmet ,se on the Aeverity of @ead InBuries in
Motor cycle !ccidentsC, !. (eiss analysed a sample of ::2 similar motorcycle
accidents that occurred in the Dos !ngeles area in 9E:7 and 9E::. Each accident
%as classified according to the severity of the head inBury suffered by the
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motorcycle operator. The classification used and the frequency table giving the
severities of the accidents that occurred %hen the operator %as %earing and %as not
%earing a helmet.
In 119 of the accidents the operator %ore a helmet, %hereas in the other 41E accidents the
operator did not. Calculate the follo%ing+
a) !M and median and compare the results on the basis of the severity of head
inBuries in both cases.
b) Comment on the nature of the distribution of accidents
*) The follo%ing table sho%s the return 'in F) data for t%o mutual funds for the years
62223 622E.
*ear 6222 6229 6226 6221 6224 6228 6227 622: 6225 622E
Metal 3: 95 11 8E 5 41 14 17 387 :7
Income 4 : E 9E E 1 5 8 399 19
a) &ra% a "ox #lot and identify outliers if any. !lso comment on the nature of the
distribution.
b) (hich mutual fund is less ris$y< Gustify your ans%er
4) ! study for !A&!> stoc$ mar$et revealed that 41F of all !merican adults are
stoc$holders. In addition, the study also revealed that :8F of all !merican adult
stoc$holders have some college education. Auppose 1EF of all !merican adults have
some college education. !n !merican adult is randomly selected. =ind the follo%ing
probabilities. &efine your events clearly.
a) does not o%n stoc$
b) o%n stoc$s or has some college education
6
Classification
of accident
Interpretation &river
%ith
helmet
&river
%ithout
helmet
2 o head inBury 645 66:
9 Minor head inBury 85 918
6 Moderate head
inBury
99 11
1 Aevere, not life
threatening
1 94
4 Aevere and life
threatening
6 1
8 Critical, survival
uncertain
5 69
7 =atal 9 7
c) neither some college education nor o%ns stoc$s
d) does not o%n stoc$ or has no college education
+) !n automatic device is installed to chec$ the output of an item being produced by a
production unit. The proportion of defectives produced over time has been observed to be
2.24. The device can indicate a defective unit to be non3defective %ith a probability 2.6
and a non3defective unit to be defective %ith a probability 2.98. In the long run, %hat
percent of the unit to be defective %ill be reBected as being defective by the device<
) ! blood test is EEF effective in detecting a certain disease %hen the disease is present.
@o%ever, the test also yields a false positive result for 6F of the healthy patients tested
'that is, if a healthy person is tested, then %ith probability 2.26 the test %ill say that this
person has the disease). Auppose that 2.8F of the population has the disease. =ind the
probability that a randomly tested individual actually has the disease given that his/her
test result is positive. Comment on the result.
,) The G./. /yland Computer Company is considering a plant expansion that %ill enable
the company to begin production of a ne% computer product. The companyHs
president must determine %hether to ma$e the expansion a medium3or large3 scale
proBect. !n uncertainty is the demand for the ne% product, %hich for planning may be
lo% demand, medium demand, or high demand. Detting x and y indicate the annual profit
in 09222Hs, the firmHs managers have developed the profit forecasts for the medium Iand
large scale expansion proBects.
(hich decision is preferred for the obBective of
a) maximi-ing the expected profit<
b) minimi-ing the ris$<
-) !n insurance salesman sells policies to five men, all of identical age and good health.
!ccording to actuarial tables, the probability that a man of this particular age %ill be alive
12 years hence is 6/1. =ind the follo%ing probabilities+
a) In 12 years all five men %ill be alive
b) !t most three men %ill be alive
.) @o% many tosses are needed in order that the probability of getting a sum : on at least
9 of the 1 tosses of a pair of fair dice is greater than 2.E8<
10) Time ta$en by the cre% of a company to construct a small bridge is normally
distributed %ith mean 422 labour hours and A& of 922 labour hours.
1
DargeI
Acale 'x)
#robability Medium I
Acale 'x)
#robability
Do% 2 2.6 82 2.6
Medium 922 2.8 982 2.8
@igh 122 2.1 622 2.1
a) (hat is the probability that the bridge get constructed bet%een 182 to 482 hours<
b) If the company promises to construct the bridge in 482 labour hours or less and agrees
to pay a penalty of /s 922/3 for each labour hour spent in excess of 482, %hat is the
probability that the company pays a penalty of at least /s. 6222<
11) ! list of the top 922 metropolitan areas %ith their ratings in the ,A and Canada are
given in the data Met!reas 'Aee C& attached %ith the text). &ra% a simple random
sample of si-e 12 and find the sampling distribution of the average sample ratings.
AJD,TIJ+
'E)
=avourable #ossible outcomes+ '9, 7) '7, 9) '6, 8) '8, 6) '1, 4) '4, 1)
umber of favourable Jutcomes K 7
Total number of outcomes K 17
#robable outcomes for one toss of pair of dices K 7/17 K9/7
Jutcome for no. pair is sum to : in 1 tosses K 9 I 9/7 K 8/7
/equired probability K 9 I '8/7)
1
K E9/697
=or finding the number of tosses for probability to be more than .E8,
,nfavourable probability K 8/7
=or required number of tosses,
'8/7)
n
L 93 .E8
'8/7)
n
L 2.28
nMDog'8/7) L log'2.28)
n L 97.41 N 9:
n L 9:
4
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