Chapter 5

5.1 In an observational study, there is no attempt to control factors that might influence the
variable of interest. In an experimental study, a factor (such as regular use of a fitness center) is
controlled by randomly selecting who is exposed to that factor, thereby reducing the influence of
other factors on the variable of interest.
5.2a he study is observational. he statistics practitioner did not randomly assign stores to buy
cans or bottles.
b !andomly assign some stores to receive only cans and others to receive only bottles.
5." !andomly sample smo#ers and nonsmo#ers and compute the proportion of each group that has
lung cancer.
b he study is observational. $xperimental data would re%uire the statistics practitioner to
randomly assign some people to smo#e and others not to smo#e.
5.&a ' survey can be conducted by means of a personal interview, a telephone interview, or a self(
administered %uestionnaire.
b ' personal interview has a high response rate relative to other survey methods, but is expensive
because of the need to hire well(trained interviewers and possibly pay travel(related costs if the
survey is conducted over a large geographical area. ' personal interview also will li#ely result in
fewer incorrect responses that arise when respondents misunderstand some %uestions. ' telephone
interview is less expensive, but will li#ely result in a lower response rate. ' self(administered
%uestionnaire is least expensive, but suffers from lower response rates and accuracy than
interviews.
5.5 )ive important points to consider when designing a %uestionnaire are as follows*
(1) he %uestionnaire should be short.
(2) +uestions should be short, clearly worded, and unambiguous.
(") ,onsider using dichotomous or multiple(choice %uestions, but ta#e care that respondents
needn-t ma#e unspecified assumptions before answering the %uestions.
(&) 'void using leading %uestions.
(5) .hen preparing the %uestions, thin# about how you intend to tabulate and analy/e the
responses.
5.0a he sampled population will exclude those who avoid large department stores in favor or
smaller shops, as well as those who consider their time too valuable to spend participating in a
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survey. he sampled population will therefore differ from the target population of all customers
who regularly shop at the mall.
b he sampled population will contain a disproportionate number of thic# boo#s, because of the
manner in which the sample is selected.
c he sampled population consists of those eligible voters who are at home in the afternoon,
thereby excluding most of those with full(time 1obs (or at school).
5.2a he Literary Digest was a popular maga/ine in the 1324s and 13"4s which had correctly
predicted the outcome of many presidential elections. o help predict the outcome of the 13"0
presidential election, the Literary Digest mailed sample ballots to 14 million prospective voters.
5ased on the results of the ballots returned, the maga/ine predicted that the !epublican candidate,
'lfred 6andon, would defeat the 7emocratic incumbent, )ran#lin 7. !oosevelt, by a " to 2
margin. In fact, !oosevelt won a landslide victory, capturing 028 of the votes.
b he main reason for the poll being so wrong was nonresponse bias resulting from a self(selected
sample, causing the sample to be unrepresentative of the target population. (9nly 2." million
ballots were returned.) he second reason was selection bias, resulting from poor sampling design,
causing the sampled population and the target population to differ. :ost of those to whom a ballot
was sent were selected from the Literary Digests subscription list and from telephone directories.
hese people tended to be wealthier than average and tended to vote !epublican.
5.;a ' self(selected sample is a sample formed primarily on the basis of voluntary inclusion, with
little control by the designer of the survey.
b ,hoose any recent radio or television poll based on responses of listeners who phone in on a
volunteer basis.
c <elf(selected samples are usually biased, because those who participate are more interested in
the issue than those who don-t, and therefore probably have a different opinion.
5.3 .e should ignore the results because this is an example of a self(selected sample.
5.14 =o, because the sampled population consists of the responses about the professor-s
course. .e cannot ma#e draw inferences about all courses.
5.11 .e used $xcel to generate &4 three(digit random numbers. 5ecause we will ignore all
randomly generated numbers over ;44, we can expect to ignore about 248 (or about ; to 14) of
the randomly generated numbers. .e will also ignore any duplication. .e therefore chose to
generate &4 three(digit random numbers, and will use the first 25 uni%ue random numbers less
than ;41 to select our sample. he &4 numbers generated are shown below, with a stro#e through
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those to be ignored.
0 "52 &50 &&3 ;02 15& 55 &12 &25 &"4
333 312 04 242 212 051 14 23& "22 105
520 ;21 334 "5& "34 5&4 ;3" 1;1 &30 ;24
2"; ;24 "2 30" 104 "2 2"1 ;0 324 &0
5.12 .e used $xcel to generate "4 six(digit random numbers. 5ecause we will ignore any
duplicate numbers generated, we generated "4 six(digit random numbers and will use the first 24
uni%ue
random numbers to select our sample. he "4 numbers generated are shown below.
103,&24 2&&,5"4 22,55& 31;,2"4 "24,202 54",123
"1;,;5; 03;,24" ;22,";" 3";,202 ;44,;40 50,0&"
;"0,110 12",3"0 ;4,5"3 15&,211 "31,22; 3&4,15&
114,0"4 ;50,";4 222,1&5 032,"1" 3&3,;2; 501,511
343,203 ;11,22& 2;;,55" 2&3,022 ;5;,3&& "3,"4;
5.1" <tratified random sampling is recommended. he strata are the school of business, the faculty
of arts, the graduate school and the all the other schools and faculties would be the fourth stratum.
he data can be used to ac%uire information about the entire campus but also compare the four
strata.
5.1& ' stratified random sampling plan accomplishes the president-s goals. he strata are the four
areas enabling the statistics practitioner to learn about the entire population but also compare the
four areas.
5.15 he operations manager can select stratified random samples where the strata are the four
departments. <imple random sampling can be conducted in each department.
5.10 >se cluster sampling, letting each city bloc# represent a cluster.
5.12a <ampling error refers to an inaccuracy in a statement about a population that arises because
the statement is based only on sample data. .e expect this type of error to occur because we are
ma#ing a statement based on incomplete information. =onsampling error refers to mista#es made
in the ac%uisition of data or due to the sample observations being selected improperly.
b =onsampling error is more serious because, unli#e sampling error, it cannot be diminished by
ta#ing a larger sample.
5.1; hree types of nonsampling errors*
(1) $rror due to incorrect responses
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(2)=onresponse error, which refers to error introduced when responses are not obtained from some
members of the sample. his may result in the sample being unrepresentative of the target
population.
(")$rror due to selection bias, which arises when the sampling plan is such that some members of
the target population cannot possibly be selected for inclusion in the sample.
5.13 ?es. ' census will li#ely contain significantly more nonsampling errors than a carefully
conducted sample survey.
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