AfghanlsLan ubllc ollcy 8esearch CrganlzaLlon

AugusL 2014

Cccaslonal aper



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1hls paper ls based on Lwo research pro[ecLs funded by Cxfam novlb (2010-2011) and A8C
(2011-2013).



4@.1& &)' A'6'%20)'26

1he A8C research Leam responslble for Lhls paper are (ln alphabeLlcal order): Ahmad Shaheer
Anll, nafas Cul karlml, 8ozblh Mlhran, Saeed arLo, Lhsan SaadaL, and Zarghona Safy. A8C ls
graLeful Lo all lndlvlduals and organlzaLlons who parLlclpaLed ln Lhls research.

Saeed arLo and 8ozblh Mlhran auLhored Lhls reporL.



4@.1& 4BBAC

AfghanlsLan ubllc ollcy 8esearch CrganlzaLlon (A8C) ls an lndependenL soclal research
organlzaLlon promoLlng soclal and pollcy learnlng Lo beneflL developmenL and reconsLrucLlon
efforLs ln AfghanlsLan. A8C ls a non-proflL, non-governmenL organlzaLlon, headquarLered ln
kabul, AfghanlsLan wlLh saLelllLe offlces ln Mazar-e Sharlf, !alalabad, kandahar, and PeraL.
A8C's mlsslon ls Lo measure developmenL progress agalnsL sLraLeglc reconsLrucLlon ob[ecLlves
Lo provlde lnslghLs on how Lo lmprove performance agalnsL Lhe developmenL mllesLones seL by
Lhe Afghan governmenL and lnLernaLlonal donors. A8C conducLs applled research, carrles ouL
evaluaLlons, and provldes Lralnlng on pollcy analysls, research meLhods, MonlLorlng and
LvaluaLlons, advocacy, and research meLhods.


lor more lnformaLlon, see: www.appro.org.af
ConLacL: mall[appro.org.af


A8C ls responslble for all omlsslons and errors.


hoLograph: Lpsdave aL: hLLp://plxabay.com/en/afghanlsLan-landscape-mounLalns-90761/



2014. AfghanlsLan ubllc ollcy 8esearch CrganlzaLlon. Some rlghLs reserved. 1hls publlcaLlon
may be reproduced, sLored ln a reLrleval sysLem or LransmlLLed for non-commerclal purposes
only and wlLh wrlLLen credlL Lo A8C and Lhe auLhor(s). Where Lhls publlcaLlon ls reproduced,
sLored or LransmlLLed elecLronlcally, a llnk Lo A8C's webslLe aL www.appro.org.af should be
provlded. Any oLher use of Lhls publlcaLlon requlres prlor wrlLLen permlsslon whlch may be
obLalned by wrlLlng Lo: mall[appro.org.af
www.appro.org.af 3
D".66%23
Au8 Aslan uevelopmenL 8ank
AnuMA AfghanlsLan naLlonal ulsasLer ManagemenL AuLhorlLy
AnuS AfghanlsLan naLlonal uevelopmenL SLraLegy
A8C AfghanlsLan ubllc ollcy 8esearch CrganlzaLlon
CC CllmaLe Change
CuC CommunlLy uevelopmenL Councll
CPA CoordlnaLlon for PumanlLarlan AsslsLance
C8S CaLhollc 8ellef Servlces
CSC CenLral SLaLlsLlcs Cfflce
uACAA8 uanlsh CommlLLee for Ald Lo Afghan 8efugees
LC Luropean Commlsslon
Lu Luropean unlon
lAC lood and AgrlculLure CrganlzaLlon of Lhe unlLed naLlons
lLWSnL1 uSAlu lamlne Larly Warnlng SysLem
lS lood SecurlLy
CAln 1he Creenlng of AfghanlsLan lnlLlaLlve
CLl Clobal LnvlronmenLal laclllLy
CMCs CeneLlcally Modlfled Crganlsms
PL PorLlculLure and LlvesLock ro[ecL
lCA8uA lnLernaLlonal CenLer for AgrlculLure 8esearch ln Lhe ury Areas
lnCC lnLernaLlonal nongovernmenLal CrganlzaLlon
lCC lnLergovernmenLal anel on CllmaLe Change
MAlL MlnlsLry of AgrlculLure, lrrlgaLlon and LlvesLock
MLuA MennonlLe Lconomlc uevelopmenL AssoclaLes
MoWA MlnlsLry of Women's Affalrs
MoWL MlnlsLry of WaLer and Lnergy
M88u MlnlsLry of 8ural 8ehablllLaLlon and uevelopmenL
nAA naLlonal AdapLaLlon rogramme of AcLlon
nCSA naLlonal CapaclLy Self-AssessmenL
nLA naLlonal LnvlronmenLal roLecLlon Agency
nL8A naLlonal Lmergency 8ural Access rogram
nCC non-governmenLal CrganlzaLlon
n8vA naLlonal 8lsk and vulnerablllLy AssessmenL
nS naLlonal SolldarlLy rogram
un unlLed naLlons
unL unlLed naLlons LnvlronmenL rogramme
uSAlu unlLed SLaLes Agency for lnLernaLlonal uevelopmenL
W8 World 8ank
Wl unlLed naLlons World lood rogramme
WMC World MeLeorologlcal CrganlzaLlon
www.appro.org.af 4

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www.appro.org.af 3
F*&2.,10&#.*
SouLh Asla ls home Lo nearly 40 per cenL of Lhe world's poor populaLlon. numerous counLrles ln
Lhe reglon have been pollLlcally LurbulenL for a number of years whlle sufferlng from Lhe hlghesL
prevalence of malnuLrlLlon across all age caLegorles. 1hese vulnerablllLles are compounded by
Lhe adverse lmpacLs of cllmaLe change, whlch appear Lo have alLered generaLlons-old modes of
exlsLence based on raln-fed and lrrlgaLed agrlculLure. Lxamples of falllng waLer Lables, perslsLenL
droughLs, and heavy unseasonal ralnfalls causlng floods have been very common ln Lhe lasL 10
Lo 13 years. lmpoverlshed rural households whose llvellhoods depend on cllmaLe senslLlve
agrlculLure are llkely Lo be dlsproporLlonaLely affecLed by Lhe expecLed perslsLence of cllmaLe
change. SouLh Aslan counLrles suffer from an excepLlonally hlgh number of naLural cllmaLlc
dlsasLers, llkely Lo lnLenslfy wlLh cllmaLe change.
1


AfghanlsLan ls parLlcularly vulnerable Lo falllng crop ylelds caused by glacler reLreaL, floods,
droughLs, erraLlc ralnfall and oLher cllmaLe change lmpacLs.
2
Whlle Lhe lmpacLs of cllmaLe
change wlll be evldenL everywhere around Lhe world, Lhe pooresL counLrles such as AfghanlsLan
are llkely Lo be mosL adversely affecLed due Lo lnadequaLe lnfrasLrucLure, lnsLablllLy -
dlsallowlng naLlonal efforLs ln mlLlgaLlon - and lack resources Lo moblllze agalnsL Lhe adverse
lmpacLs of cllmaLe change on llvellhoods.

1hls reporL Lakes sLock of Lhe maln cllmaLe change and food securlLy relaLed lssues of
AfghanlsLan, measures Laken by varlous naLlonal and lnLernaLlonal acLors Lo address Lhem, Lhe
lmpacL of Lhese measures on selecLed communlLles, and Lhe challenges LhaL remaln Lo be
addressed Lhrough new programmlng by Lhe CovernmenL of AfghanlsLan and lLs lnLernaLlonal
donors.
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1hls sLudy was carrled ouL Lo meeL Lhe followlng ob[ecLlves:
lnvesLlgaLe Lhe manner ln whlch soclo-economlc, pollLlcal, and cllmaLe change-relaLed facLors
affecL rural llvellhoods and food securlLy as observed Lhrough food avallablllLy, access Lo food,
and food dlsLrlbuLlon
rovlde an overvlew on Lhe maln global and reglonal drlvers of food securlLy
Analyze daLa from secondary (reporLs and oLher documenLs) and prlmary (lnLervlews and
focus group dlscusslons) sources Lo generaLe recommendaLlons for fuLure programmlng on
food securlLy and cllmaLe change ln AfghanlsLan


1
World 8ank (2009). AfghanlsLan CounLry Cvervlew, 1he World 8ank. Avallable aL:
hLLp://www.worldbank.org.af/W8Sl1L/Lx1L8nAL/CCun18lLS/SCu1PASlALx1/AlCPAnlS1AnLx1n/0,,co
nLenLMuk:20134013~menuk:303992~pagek:141137~plk:141127~LheSlLek:303983,00.hLml
2
Au8 (2009) Addresslng CllmaLe Change ln Lhe Asla and aclflc 8eglon: 8ulldlng CllmaLe 8eslllence ln Lhe
AgrlculLure SecLor", avallable from:
hLLp://agrlcoop.nlc.ln/CllmaLechange/ccr/un,20lAC,20Au8208eporLs/8ulldlng-CllmaLe-8eslllence-
AgrlculLure-SecLor-Au8208eporLs.pdf
www.appro.org.af 6
1o meeL Lhe above ob[ecLlves Lhe followlng Lasks were underLaken:
A revlew of reporLs and programs by naLlonal and lnLernaLlonal agencles on cllmaLe change,
food securlLy, and agrlculLural developmenL
A serles of seml-formal lnLervlews wlLh key lnformanLs ln kabul and Lhe slLes of sLudy (8alkh,
PeraL, and nangarhar), and
A serles of focus group dlscusslons lnvolvlng rural households aL Lhe sLudy slLes.

1he daLa from prlmary and secondary sources were analyzed Lo generaLe Lhe flndlngs and Lhe
recommendaLlons for Lhls reporL. 1he selecLlon of Lhe sLudy slLes was based on ldenLlfylng
parLlcularly hard-hlL rural communlLles ln Lhe Lhree provlnces of 8alkh, PeraL, and nangarhar.
Also Laken lnLo conslderaLlon ln Lhls selecLlon were securlLy of Lhe slLes and physlcal access by
Lhe researchers. (See Appendlx for slLe proflles).

1he prlmary daLa was collecLed from uecember 2009 Lhrough Lo lebruary 2010, wlLh furLher
updaLes ln laLe 2013. 1here were 23 seml-formal lnLervlews wlLh key lnformanLs ln kabul (3),
8alkh (6), PeraL (6), and nangarhar (4). Cn each slLe focus group meeLlngs were held wlLh one
male CuC, one female CuC, one randomly selecLed group of male farmers, and one randomly
selecLed group of female members of farmer households.

1he selecLlon of dlsLrlcLs ln Lhe Lhree provlnces of 8alkh, kandahar, and nangarhar for Lhls sLudy
was carrled ouL uslng Lhe followlng crlLerla:
1. Lack or shorLage of lrrlgaLlon sysLems and dependence of farmers on ralnfall for
agrlculLure and llvesLock husbandry
2. A hlsLory of belng affecLed by cllmaLe change, e. g. more and longer droughLs, loss of
vegeLaLlon cover, lower groundwaLer Lable, lncreased number of floods and Lhe lmpacL
of Lhese evenLs soclally, economlcally, culLurally, and pollLlcally
3. oLenLlal securlLy rlsks faced by Lhe fleld research Leam

uue Lo Lhe lnsufflclency and unrellablllLy of Lhe avallable lnformaLlon on lndlvldual dlsLrlcLs ln
Lhe Lhree provlnces, experL oplnlons were soughL from Lhree lndependenL sources: 1) lAC's
senlor offlclals and experLs, 2) senlor offlclals from provlnclal dlrecLoraLes of Lhe MlnlsLry of
AgrlculLure, lrrlgaLlon, and LlvesLock, and 3) A8C's local conLacLs. Lach of Lhe dlsLrlcLs was
proposed by aL leasL Lwo ouL of Lhree of Lhe abovemenLloned sources whose suggesLlons were
carefully consldered ln Lhe flnal selecLlon.
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1hls sLudy was underLaken Lo Lake sLock of Lhe avallable daLa from secondary sources wlLh
evldence from a llmlLed number of slLes ln Lhree provlnces of AfghanlsLan. AlLhough Lhe sLudy
reveals much abouL Lhe mechanlsms Lhrough whlch cllmaLe change affecLs rural areas, lL falls
shorL of belng sLaLlsLlcally represenLaLlve desplLe provldlng a reasonably sound basls on whlch Lo
make recommendaLlons for pollcy and furLher pollcy-relevanL research.

A ma[or, broader, llmlLaLlon for sLudylng Lhe lmpacLs of cllmaLe change ln AfghanlsLan ls Lhe lack
of deLalled, communlLy-level sLudles and reporLs. 1he avallable secondary daLa and reporLs are
presenLed as naLlonal" sLudles wlLh llLLle or no analysls of Lhe mlcro (household level) and
meso (communlLy level) dynamlcs of Lhe coplng mechanlsms uLlllzed ln response Lo cllmaLe
change-drlven changes ln food securlLy.
www.appro.org.af 7

AnoLher lmporLanL llmlLlng facLor ln conducLlng Lhls Lype of research ln AfghanlsLan ls
unfavorable and lncreaslngly worsenlng securlLy condlLlons. Whlle many vlllages ln souLhern and
easLern AfghanlsLan are lnsecure, an lncreaslng number of vlllages ln Lhe norLh and wesL are
also experlenclng lnsLablllLy and growlng confllcL arlslng from pollLlcal dlsagreemenLs and
crlmlnal acLlvlLy.
-.., F*6'012#&3 #* 45+)%*#6&%*
AfghanlsLan's populaLlon ls esLlmaLed aL beLween 26-30 mllllon. 1he average morLallLy age ls
beLween 42-47 years. 1he Cross uomesLlc roducL of uS$11.6 bllllon ls made up largely of Lhe
developmenL and reconsLrucLlon funds LhaL have been comlng lnLo Lhe counLry slnce Lhe fall of
Lhe 1aleban ln laLe 2001. unemploymenL ls esLlmaLed aL around 40 percenL whlle Lhe LoLal
number of food lnsecure people has been esLlmaLed as 4.9 million people, or 19 percent of the
populaLlon. With children up to the age of 5 years accounting for an estimated account for 21
percent of the population, this means that there are at least 1.5 million food insecure children
with insufficient and inadequate daily protein and calorie intakes.
3
There are 5.2 million food
insecure people living in rural areas where 72 percent of the population resides - excluding
the 5 percent Kuchi population. (Table 1).

E%@"' P7 -.., F*6'012#&3 #* 45+)%*#6&%*

Source: CSC (2014)
4


ln much of Lhe waLer-scarce agrlculLural land ln AfghanlsLan farmlng has always been dlfflculL.
1he dlfference beLween Lhe pasL and presenL ls lncreased flucLuaLlons ln weaLher paLLerns as far
as LemperaLures and ralnfall as well as a general warmlng whlch has occurred ln mosL of Lhe lasL
20 Lo 30 years. 1hls already crlLlcal slLuaLlon has been exacerbaLed by soclal and pollLlcal Lurmoll
durlng Lhe same perlod.


3
lood lnsecure ls deflned as noL meeLlng Lhe dally proLeln requlremenL of aL leasL 30 grams per person
per day from Lhe avallable food baskeL." CSC (2014), lood SecurlLy (ChapLer 7), ages 38-39, avallable
from: hLLp://cso.gov.af/ConLenL/flles/ChapLer720lCCu20SLCu8l1?.pdf
4
CSC (2014).
www.appro.org.af 8
ually dleLary componenLs for mosL rural households conslsL of malnly carbohydraLes such as
rlce, poLaLoes, pulses, wheaL, and vegeLable or anlmal faL used wlLh onlons and garllc Lo
prepare. When ln season, Lhls dleLary base ls supplemenLed wlLh vegeLables such as splnach,
LomaLoes, and eggplanLs. lamllles LhaL ralse chlcken add eggs Lo Lhelr dleL. LxcepL for speclal
occaslons poorer famllles consume very llLLle meaL due Lo scarclLy and Lhe prohlblLlve cosL.
3

oorer famllles ofLen have bread and sweeLened Lea for mosL of Lhelr meals. SubslsLence
farmlng for baslc foods such as wheaL ls dependenL on ralnfall or access Lo waLer. ln years wlLh
lnadequaLe access Lo waLer wheaL, along wlLh oLher necesslLles, needs Lo be purchased ln Lhe
markeL. Powever, wlLhouL lncome from sources oLher Lhan Lhe meager agrlculLural produce ln
good years, Lhe foodsLuffs avallable on Lhe markeL are unaffordable for Lhe vasL ma[orlLy of Lhe
poorer rural households.
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1here ls a broad consensus LhaL Lhe LarLh's cllmaLe paLLerns are changlng Lhough Lhere are
serlous dlsagreemenLs as Lo Lhe causes of Lhese changes. Lmlsslons of greenhouse gases such as
carbon dloxlde (CC
2
) are polnLed Lo by many as Lhe prlmary cause of cllmaLe change whlle
oLhers conLend LhaL cllmaLe change occurs lndependenL of human acLlvlLy and ls due Lo Lhe
LarLh's own cllmaLlc cycles.
6
1here ls broad agreemenL, however, LhaL Lhe bulk of Lhe changes
resulLlng from global cllmaLe change are, and wlll be, adverse ln naLure, parLlcularly ln Lhe global
souLh.

Cbserved effecLs of cllmaLe change have been documenLed ln Lhe lnLergovernmenLal anel on
CllmaLe Change (lCC) assessmenL reporLs. 1here are exLenslve examples of recedlng mounLaln
glaclers and lce caps, breaklng off and floaLlng of lce shelves and conLlnenLal lce sheeLs, reduced
seasonal snow cover on land, and Lhawlng of Lhe Lundra due Lo enhanced warmlng.
7
1hese
changes have resulLed ln shlfLs ln planL and anlmal ranges pole-ward and on hlgher elevaLlons,
reducLlons and lncreases wlLhln populaLlon slzes of some anlmals and planLs, changes ln llfe
cycle evenLs such as bloomlng, mlgraLlon and lnsecL emergence, spread of new dlseases from
hlsLorlcally warmer zones Lo colder zones, and changes ln specles aL dlfferenL speeds and
dlfferenL dlrecLlons causlng a decoupllng of lnLer-specles lnLeracLlons such as predaLor-pray
relaLlonshlps.

ln lCC's lourLh AssessmenL 8eporL clLes a number of changes ln soclo-economlc sysLems as
belng parLlally relaLed Lo cllmaLe change. Lxamples lnclude hlgher lnsLances of droughL relaLed
Lo perslsLenLly low ralnfall paLLerns ln Lhe Sahellan reglon of Afrlca and lncreased preclplLaLlon
exLremes and floods ln norLh Amerlca and Lurope. 8emalnlng on Lhe currenL Lra[ecLory of

3
1he dleL varles for Lhe nomadlc communlLles and qulLe posslbly lncludes more meaL and dalry producLs.
6
Lobell, u. and M. 8urke (2010). CllmaLe Change and lood SecurlLy: AdapLlng AgrlculLure Lo a Warmer
World. (Sprlnger ubllshers).
7
8osenzwelg C., C. Casassa, u.!. karoly, A. lmeson, C. Lle, A. Menzel, S. 8awllnes, 1.L. 8ooL, 8. Sequln, and
. 1ry[anowskl (2007). AssessmenL of Cbserved Changes and 8esponse ln naLural and Managed
SysLems", ln CllmaLe Change 2007: lmpacLs, AdapLaLlon and vulnerablllLy. ConLrlbuLlon of Worklng Croup
ll Lo Lhe lourLh AssessmenL 8eporL of Lhe lnLergovernmenLal anel on CllmaLe Change, M.L. arry, C.l.
Canzlanl, !.. aluLlkof, .!. van der Llnden, and C.L. Panson (Lds.) (Cambrldge, uk: Cambrldge unlverslLy
ress). p. 79-131.
www.appro.org.af 9
cllmaLe change, green house gas emlsslons could rlse by 23-90 percenL by 2030. ln Lhe LwenLy
flrsL cenLury Lhe LarLh could warm by 3C.
8
Lven wlLh an lncrease ln LemperaLure of 1-2.3 C,
lCC predlcLs serlous effecLs such as reduced crop ylelds ln Lroplcal areas resulLlng ln hunger,
spread of cllmaLe senslLlve dlseases such as malarla, and helghLened rlsk of exLlncLlon of 20 Lo
30 percenL all planL and anlmal specles. 230 mllllon people ln Afrlca could be exposed Lo greaLer
rlsk of waLer shorLages by 2020. 8emalnlng on Lhe currenL Lra[ecLory ls llkely Lo resulL ln mllllons
of people sufferlng and dylng from droughL, waLer scarclLy, and floods by Lhe year 3000.
9


8esearch also shows LhaL due Lo cllmaLe change Lhe mosL lmporLanL food crops wlll have
reducLlons ln Lhelr ylelds, parLlcularly ln SouLh Asla. 8emalnlng on Lhe currenL Lra[ecLory ls llkely
Lo resulL ln prlce lncreases for meaL, rlce, wheaL, malze, and soybean. 8y 2030, calorle
avallablllLy wlll decllne relaLlve Lo 2000 levels LhroughouL Lhe developlng world, lncreaslng chlld
malnuLrlLlon by 20 percenL relaLlve Lo a world wlLh no cllmaLe change. Much of Lhe
lmprovemenLs ln chlld malnourlshmenL levels ln a no-cllmaLe-change scenarlo wlll also be
ellmlnaLed.
10


Clven Lhe prevalence of agrlculLure and anlmal husbandry as Lhe maln sources of llvellhood ln
rural communlLles ln many of Lhe pooresL and leasL developed counLrles such as AfghanlsLan, lL
ls cruclal Lo esLabllsh Lhe vulnerablllLy, adapLablllLy, and reslllence of rural communlLles ln
coplng wlLh cllmaLe change-relaLed evenLs as a means for lnformed developmenL programmlng
ln Lhe years Lo come.
!"#$%&' !)%*+' %*, -.., /'012#&3
lood and AgrlculLure CrganlzaLlon deflnes food securlLy as havlng, aL all Llmes, physlcal, soclal,
and economlc access Lo sufflclenL, safe, and nuLrlLlous food LhaL meeLs dleLary needs and food
preferences for an acLlve and healLhy llfe.
11
CLhers have elaboraLed on Lhls deflnlLlon Lo ldenLlfy
Lhe four key dlmenslons of food securlLy as food belng avallable, accesslble, and uLlllzed under
sLable condlLlons. AvallablllLy refers Lo sufflclency of food, l.e., Lhe overall capaclLy and Lhe
ablllLy of Lhe agrlculLure sysLem Lo meeL food demand. AccesslblllLy refers Lo lndlvlduals and
households havlng adequaLe resources Lo acqulre approprlaLe food for a nuLrlLlous dleL.
uLlllzaLlon refers Lo food safeLy and quallLy aspecLs of nuLrlLlon and lLs sub-dlmenslons. SLablllLy
refers Lo condlLlons under whlch lndlvlduals and households can access Lhe resources needed Lo
consume adequaLe food. ln Lhe broader llLeraLure avallablllLy, access, and uLlllzaLlon are Lhe
mosL wldely clLed componenLs of food securlLy wlLh sLablllLy ofLen belng lmpllclLly assumed as a
precondlLlon.
12



8
unlLed naLlons lramework ConvenLlon on CllmaLe Change - unlCCC (2007). Avallable from:
hLLp://unfccc.lnL/resource/docs/publlcaLlons/lmpacLs.pdf
9
8osenzwelg eL al. (2007). 1hese Lrends are conflrmed ln lCC's llfLh AssessmenL 8eporL (2013), avallable
from hLLp://www.cllmaLechange2013.org/lmages/reporL/WC1A83_ALL_llnAL.pdf
10
nelson, !., !.!. kwlaLkowskl, !. klrkpaLrlck, !.M. lrosL (2009), Modellng Charge 1ransporL ln Crganlc
hoLovolLalc MaLerlals", !""#$%&' #) *+,-."/0 1,',/2"+, 42:1768-1778.
11
lood and AgrlculLure CrganlzaLlon of Lhe unlLed naLlons - lAC (2006), avallable from:
hLLp://www.fao.org/foresLry/13128-0e6f36f27e0091033bec28ebe830f46b3.pdf.
12
See, for example, Lobell and 8urke (2010). lor Lhe addlLlonal focus on sLablllLy as a maln facLor ln food
securlLy see Schmldhuber, !. and l. 1ublello (2007). Clobal lood SecurlLy under CllmaLe Change." nAS
104(30): 19703-19708.
www.appro.org.af 10
ln all sLudles of food securlLy, avallablllLy of food ls llnked dlrecLly Lo agrlculLural producLlon and
consequenLly sub[ecL Lo cllmaLe change lmpacLs. 1he common mechanlsms Lhrough whlch
cllmaLe change can affecL agrlculLure are lncreased aLmospherlc carbon dloxlde concenLraLlons,
whlch wlll lmprove crop-growlng condlLlons ln some areas buL noL oLhers, llkellhood of
lnLenslfled pesL and dlsease problems ln some areas leadlng Lo crop losses, and drler condlLlons
and lncreased waLer sLress affecLlng crop ylelds ln areas, such as SouLh Asla, where waLer ls
already scarce and source of much confllcL.
13


1he mlLlgaLlng facLor for addresslng adverse effecLs of cllmaLe change ls expecLed by some Lo be
global food Lrade acLlng as a poLenLlal buffer Lo deal wlLh crop yleld shorLages.
14
uependlng on
Lhe pro[ecLed scenarlos, Lhe rlse ln LemperaLures ln LemperaLe laLlLudes can brlng beneflLs Lo
agrlculLure by expanslon of areas poLenLlally sulLable for crops and lncreaslng Lhe lengLh of Lhe
growlng season, resulLlng ln lncreased crop ylelds.
13
Warmlng ln some reglons may also lncrease
pasLure producLlvlLy and reduce Lhe need for houslng and compound feedlng ln some humld
and LemperaLe grasslands. Powever, ln semlarld and arld reglons, reduced llvesLock producLlvlLy
and lncreased llvesLock morLallLy are llkely as consequences of warmlng. CllmaLe models also
predlcL lncreased evapoLransplraLlon and lower soll molsLure ln drler areas poLenLlally resulLlng
ln some culLlvaLed areas becomlng unsulLable for cropplng and some Lroplcal grasslands
becomlng lncreaslngly arld. Plgher LemperaLures are llkely Lo expand Lhe range of many
agrlculLural pesLs and lncrease Lhe ablllLy of pesL populaLlons Lo survlve Lhe wlnLer and aLLack
sprlng crops.
16


WlLh an lncrease ln frequency and severlLy of exLreme weaLher evenLs such as cyclones, floods,
hallsLorms, and droughLs, global and reglonal weaLher condlLlons are also expecLed Lo become
more varlable Lhan aL Lhe presenL Llme. 1hls can resulL ln greaLer flucLuaLlons ln crop ylelds and
local food supplles and hlgher rlsks of landslldes and eroslon damage, Lhus adversely affecLlng
Lhe sLablllLy of food supplles.
17
1he ma[orlLy of areas where such effecLs wlll llkely be felL are ln
sub-Saharan Afrlca and parLs of SouLh Asla. 1hls polnLs Lo Lhe facL LhaL Lhe pooresL reglons wlLh
hlghesL level of chronlc undernourlshmenL wlll Lhe mosL exposed Lo Lhe food shorLages resulLlng
from cllmaLe change.
18


More broadly, oLhers have argued LhaL Lhe cllmaLe change - food securlLy nexus ls besL
undersLood Lhrough Lhe llnkages beLween cllmaLe change and how households earn Lhelr
lncome, Lhe naLure of household exposure Lo food prlces, how well lnLegraLed Lhe local food
markeLs are wlLh global markeLs, and Lhe broader longer-Lerm prospecLs for llvellhood
lmprovemenL.
19
CllmaLe change affecLs households dlfferenLly dependlng on dependlng on Lhe
household's source and securlLy of lncome. 8ural households ln Lhe leasL developed and already

13
See, for example, Cornall, !., 8. 8eLLs, L. 8urke, 8. Clard, !. Camp, k. WllleLL, and A. WllLshlre (2010),
lmpllcaLlons of cllmaLe change for agrlculLural producLlvlLy ln Lhe early LwenLy-flrsL cenLury", avallable
from : hLLp://rsLb.royalsocleLypubllshlng.org/conLenL/363/1334/2973.full
14
See, for example, Lobell and 8urke (2010).
13
Schmldhuber and 1ublello (2007).
16
lCC (2007).
17
Schmldhuber and 1ublello (2007).
18
8rulnsma, !. (2003), World AgrlculLure: 1owards 2030/2030", lAC, Clobal erspecLlve SLudles unlL
(8ome), avallable from:
hLLp://www.fao.org/flleadmln/user_upload/esag/docs/lnLerlm_reporL_A12030web.pdf
19
See, for example, Lobell and 8urke (2010).
www.appro.org.af 11
poor counLrles depend on agrlculLure as Lhe maln source of food and lncome securlLy and are
Lhus Lhe mosL aL rlsk wlLh changes ln weaLher paLLerns.
20


1he provlslon of sufflclenL dleLary energy ls a prlmary purpose of food securlLy pollcy maklng.
1he wldely used undernourlshmenL lndlcaLors such as Lhose of lAC rely heavlly on esLlmaLes of
calorle consumpLlon ln examlnlng food securlLy-relaLed Lrends. lnsufflclenL lnLake of Lhe
necessary nuLrlenLs plays a key role ln Lhe spread and perslsLence of locallzed lllnesses and
deaLh from lnfecLlous dlseases, for example.
21
1he consumpLlon of necessary mlcronuLrlenLs can
be dlrecLly affecLed by cllmaLe change as a resulL of changes ln Lhe ylelds of lmporLanL crop
sources of mlcronuLrlenLs, alLeraLlons ln Lhe nuLrlLlonal conLenL of a speclflc crop, or changes ln
declslons of farmers Lo grow crops of dlfferenL nuLrlLlonal value buL for hlgher lncome.
22

larmers could Lhus poLenLlally undermlne mlcronuLrlenL avallablllLy ln swlLchlng crops as a
means Lo cope wlLh cllmaLe change lmpacLs.
23

!"#$%&' !)%*+' #* 45+)%*#6&%*7 B%6& E2'*,6 %*, -1&12' B2.I'0&#.*6
AfghanlsLan ls a mounLalnous counLry wlLh deserL or deserL sLeppe cllmaLe classlflcaLlon and
exLremes of cllmaLe and weaLher. uurlng wlnLers Lhe LemperaLure drops Lo well below freezlng
polnL LhroughouL Lhe counLry whlle summers are conslsLenLly hoL and dry. 8aln and snowfall
occur durlng wlnLer and sprlng seasons (CcLober-Aprll) buL vary wlLh elevaLlon. 1he average
annual preclplLaLlon ranges from around 3 cenLlmeLers ln deserL / lowland areas Lo around 100
cenLlmeLers ln mounLalnous / hlghland areas. 1he mounLalnous Lerraln provldes Lhe counLry
wlLh numerous sources of waLer, largely from snowmelL ln warmer monLhs. 8ecause of Lhe hlgh
LemperaLure varlaLlons many agrlculLural producLs such as frulLs and nuLs are of parLlcularly
good quallLy. 1he bulk of agrlculLural acLlvlLles have depended on seasonal preclplLaLlon as well
as on snowmelL aL hlgher elevaLlons durlng Lhe warmer summer monLhs.

CllmaLe change daLa for AfghanlsLan remaln scarce. Moreover, large parLs Lhe hlsLorlcal daLaseLs
were losL durlng Lhe pollLlcal Lurmoll ln Lhe counLry. Powever, accordlng Lo cllmaLlc norms used
by Lhe World MeLeorologlcal CrganlzaLlon (WMC), slnce 1960 Lhe mean annual LemperaLure
has lncreased by 0.6 C and by 0.13 C on average per decade. uurlng Lhe same perlod, Lhe
frequency of hoL days and hoL nlghL has lncreased LhroughouL Lhe year. arallel Lo changes ln
LemperaLure, changes ln preclplLaLlon have also occurred, albelL Lo a lesser exLenL. 1he amounL
of ralnfall over Lhe counLry has decreased by 2 percenL per decade ln Lhe pasL flfLy years. Severe
droughL condlLlons beLween 1998 and 2001, belleved Lo be parLly relaLed Lo 3/ 4.%/ condlLlons
ln Lhe aclflc, were Lhe worsL ln lasL flve decades.
24



20
uavls, 8.C., C.u.L. Crme, u. SLorch, v.A. Clson, C.P. 1homas, S.C. 8oss, 1-S. ulng, .C. 8asmaussen, .M.
8enneLL, l.l.l. Cwens, 1.M. 8lackburn, and k.!. CasLon (2007), 1opography, energy and Lhe global
dlsLrlbuLlon of blrd specles rlchness", roceedlngs of Lhe 8oyal SocleLy 8 (274): 1189-1197, avallable from:
hLLp://www.cLs.cunl.cz/~sLorch/publlcaLlons/uavles,20Crme,20SLorch20eL20al.202007.pdf
21
Wlllow, 8.l., and Connell, 8.k. (Lds.) (2003). CllmaLe adapLaLlon: 8lsk, uncerLalnLy and declslon-
maklng". ukCl 1echnlcal 8eporL (Cxford: ukCl), avallable from:
hLLp://www.ukclp.org.uk/wordpress/wp-conLenL/uls/ukCl-8lsk-framework.pdf
22
See, for example, Lobell and 8urke (2010).
23
See, for example, 8ozenwelg eL al. (2007).
24
Savage M., 8. uougherLy, M. Pamza, 8. 8uLLerfleld, and S. Lharwanl (2009), Soclo-Lconomlc lmpacLs of
CllmaLe Change ln AfghanlsLan", 8eporL ullu Cn18 08 8307 (Cxford: SLockholm LnvlronmenLal lnsLlLuLe).
www.appro.org.af 12
1he avallablllLy of, and access Lo, waLer by farmers have been severely affecLed by changes ln
mean annual and seasonal LemperaLures and preclplLaLlon over Lhe lasL flve decades. 1he
hlsLorlcal cllmaLe daLa suggesL AfghanlsLan has cllmaLe cycles of around 13 years durlng whlch
one would expecL aL leasL one 2-3 year perlod of droughL. Powever, ln recenL years Lhe droughL
cycle has been occurrlng more frequenLly Lhan Lhe model pro[ecLlons based on hlsLorlcal daLa.
Slnce 1960, Lhe counLry has experlenced droughL ln 1963-64, 1966-67, 1970-72, and 1998-2006.
1he fallure of raln-fed crops (esLlmaLed Lo make up Lo 80 percenL of Lhe culLlvaLed land) has
been wldespread ln Lhe norLh, wesL, and cenLral reglons.
23
Severe droughL condlLlons beLween
1998 and 2001 have been clLed as Lhe worsL ln Lhe lasL flve decades.
26


Slnce 1960 Lhe mean annual LemperaLure ln AfghanlsLan has lncreased by 0.6 C and by 0.13 C
on average per decade. uurlng Lhe same perlod, Lhe frequency of hoL days and hoL nlghL has
lncreased ln every season. 1here have been changes ln preclplLaLlon parallel Lo changes ln
LemperaLure, albelL Lo a lesser exLenL. 1he amounL of ralnfall over Lhe counLry has decreased by
2 percenL per decade ln Lhe pasL flfLy years.
27


-#+12' P7 E'$W'2%&12' !)%*+' Y*,'2 /A8/ 4R /0'*%2#. 5.2 RSTS< RSLS< %*, RSOS


-#+12' R7 A%#*5%"" !)%*+' Y*,'2 /A8/ 4R /0'*%2#. 5.2 RSTS< RSLS< %*, RSOS

Z[\!)%*+'
Source (llgures 1 and 2): McSweeney eL al. (2008)

1emperaLure and ralnfall pro[ecLlons for dlfferenL reglons of AfghanlsLan for Lhe nexL nlne
decades are shown ln llgures 1 and 2. As Lhese flgures lndlcaLe, Lhe annual LemperaLures ln Lhe
counLry wlll rlse LhroughouL over Lhe nexL few decades. 1he pro[ecLed changes ln ralnfall,
however, are noL llnear when Lhe avallable daLa are dlsaggregaLed for Lhe 8alkh, PeraL, and

23
unL, CLl, and CovernmenL of AfghanlsLan (2008), avallable from:
hLLp://posLconfllcL.unep.ch/publlcaLlons/afg_Lech/Lheme_02/afg_blodlv.pdf
26
Savage eL al. (2009).
27
McSweeney, C. M. new, and C. Llzcano (2008), unu CllmaLe Change CounLry roflles:
AfghanlsLan", unL, avallable from: hLLp://counLry-proflles.geog.ox.ac.uk
www.appro.org.af 13
nangarhar provlnces (llgure 3). PeraL, for example, ls llkely Lo have more ralnfall ln 2060 Lhan ln
2030 or 2090. AdapLaLlon- and mlLlgaLlon-drlven changes ln agrlculLural sLraLegy over Lhe
comlng decades for PeraL wlll need Lo be cognlzanL of and based on Lhese slgnlflcanL
flucLuaLlons ln ralnfall.
-#+12' T7 E'$W'2%&12' %*, A%#*5%"" !)%*+'6 #* :%";)< ='2%&< %*, >%*+%2)%2 B2.9#*0'6
B2.I'0&', E'$W'2%&12' !)%*+' B2.I'0&', A%#*5%"" !)%*+'

Source: 8ased on source daLa from McSweeney eL al (2008)

llgure 1 shows a progresslve lncrease ln LemperaLure of around 3.3 Celslus over a perlod of 80
or so years for all of AfghanlsLan excepL 8adghls where Lhe rlse ls sllghLly less. Slmllarly, llgure 2
shows changes ln preclplLaLlon Lo 2090s. lnLeresLlngly, by 2030s, preclplLaLlon remalns Lhe same
for cenLral and souLheasL AfghanlsLan whlle Lhe resL of Lhe counLry wlll experlence a 10 percenL
lncrease. 1he slLuaLlon ls almosL reversed ln 2060s wlLh Lhe cenLral and souLheasL reglons
recelvlng 10 percenL more preclplLaLlon whlle Lhe resL of Lhe counLry wlll recelve 10 percenL
less. 8y 2090s all reglons of Lhe counLry wlll recelve less raln wlLh Lhe cenLral and souLhwesLern
reglons belng affecLed Lhe mosL, recelvlng around 23 percenL less raln Lhan normal.

Much emphasls has been placed on lnLegraLed plannlng ln agrlculLural developmenL ln recenL
years. An lmporLanL componenL of lnLegraLed plannlng ls Laklng accounL of Lhe dlfferlng
ecologlcal feaLures and Lo plan acLlvlLles LhaL besL sulL speclflc agro-ecologlcal zones" Lo
provlde for maxlmum yleld, susLalnable resources use, and mlnlmal envlronmenLal lmpacL. WlLh
Lhe pro[ecLed changes ln llgures 1 and 2, lL ls llkely LhaL Lhe basls for dellneaLlng Lhe currenL 8
zones wlll also need Lo change.
28


ro[ecLlons by oLher cllmaLe change models hlghllghL waLer resources, foresLry and rangeland,
agrlculLural producLlon, blodlverslLy, and healLh as secLors mosL llkely Lo be adversely affecLed
by cllmaLe change ln AfghanlsLan.
29
erslsLenL droughL ls pro[ecLed Lo 2030 as Lhe norm raLher
Lhan a Lemporary or cycllcal evenL. unseasonal ralnfall lncreases Lhe rlsk of floods whlle Lhe
general lncrease ln LemperaLure lncreases Lhe rlsk of more rapld sprlng snowmelL. 1he
comblned lmpacL of Lhese Lwo facLors ls llkely Lo be land degradaLlon, loss of vegeLaLlve cover,

28
lor deLalls on AfghanlsLan's agro-ecologlcal zones see MaleLLa, P. and 8. lavre (2003), AgrlculLure and
lood roducLlon ln osL-War AfghanlsLan: A 8eporL on Lhe WlnLer AgrlculLure Survey 2002-2003", (kabul:
MAlL and lAC), avallable from: fLp://fLp.fao.org/counLry/afghanlsLan/AfghanlsLan_WlnLer_Survey_1.pdf
29
nCSA (2009), naLlonal CapaclLy needs Self-AssessmenL for Clobal LnvlronmenLal ManagemenL (nCSA)
and naLlonal AdapLaLlon rogramme of AcLlon for CllmaLe Change (nAA), llnal !olnL 8eporL, avallable
from: hLLp://www.Lhegef.org/gef/slLes/Lhegef.org/flles/documenLs/documenL/ncsa-afghanlsLan-fr-ap.pdf
www.appro.org.af 14
land mlsmanagemenL, floods and landslldes resulLlng ln large-scale human loss of llfe as was Lhe
case ln 8adakhshan ln sprlng of 2014, and damage Lo lnfrasLrucLure.

As llgure 4 lndlcaLes, all secLors relylng on waLer avallablllLy wlll face slgnlflcanL challenges over
Lhe comlng decades as a resulL of cllmaLe change. Slnce AfghanlsLan's economy ls hlghly
dependenL on agrlculLure, prolonged pressures as a resulL of waLer shorLages wlll have
subsLanLlal adverse lmpacLs on Lhe counLry ln general and on Lhe rural communlLles ln
parLlcular.

-#+12' UG /'0&.2 ]1"*'2%@#"#&3 &. !"#$%&' !)%*+'

Source: 8ased on source daLa from nCSA/nAA (nLA eL al. 2009)

uesplLe Lhe above background and Lhe pro[ecLlons on lmpacLs of cllmaLe change on AfghanlsLan,
Lhe 2008 verslon of Lhe AfghanlsLan naLlonal uevelopmenL SLraLegy (AnuS) does noL make a
reference Lo cllmaLe change and offers no sLraLeglc dlrecLlon Lo prepare for drasLlc cllmaLe
change-relaLed shocks.

1he naLlonal CapaclLy Self-AssessmenL for Clobal LnvlronmenLal ManagemenL (nCSA 2009)
offers Lhe followlng ob[ecLlves for addresslng Lhe lmpacLs of cllmaLe change on AfghanlsLan:
1. ldenLlfy, conflrm or revlew prlorlLy lssues for acLlon wlLhln Lhe LhemaLlc areas of
blodlverslLy, cllmaLe change and deserLlflcaLlon, respecLlvely
2. Lxplore relaLed capaclLy needs wlLhln and across Lhe Lhree LhemaLlc areas
3. CaLalyze LargeLed and coordlnaLed acLlon and requesLs for fuLure exLernal fundlng and
asslsLance, and
4. Llnk counLry acLlon Lo Lhe broader naLlonal envlronmenLal managemenL and susLalnable
developmenL framework.

nCSA also offers an elaboraLe acLlon plan for sLrengLhenlng Lhe commlLmenL by Lhe
CovernmenL of AfghanlsLan Lo 8lo ConvenLlons on cllmaLe change, sLrengLhenlng legal, pollcy,
and enabllng frameworks, ralslng awareness abouL cllmaLe change Lhrough educaLlon and publc
www.appro.org.af 13
awareness campalgns, more susLalnable managemenL of land and naLural resources, research
(lncludlng cllmaLe change modellng), and lncreaslng Lechnlcal and managerlal capaclLy. nCSA
calls for a slmpllfled and dlrecL channel of communlcaLlon for lnformaLlon relaLlng Lo Lhe urgenL
and lmmedlaLe adapLaLlon needs of AfghanlsLan ln response Lo cllmaLe change.
30


8ased on Lhe program areas ldenLlfled by nCSA, proflles were developed for lmprovlng
efflclency ln waLer managemenL and use and communlLy based waLershed managemenL Lo
serve as plloL pro[ecLs and faclllLaLe knowledge sharlng among sLakeholders aL dlfferenL levels.
Clven Lhe lnfancy of Lhese lnlLlaLlves lL ls dlfflculL Lo gauge whaL has been accompllshed Lo daLe
and whaL could be expecLed as far as achlevemenLs ln Lhe years Lo come. lL ls clear, however,
LhaL many of Lhe currenL pro[ecLs such as Lhose on developlng lrrlgaLlon schemes, lmprovlng
susLalnable rural llvellhood, and waLer resource developmenL do noL address currenL and fuLure
food securlLy challenges wlLh a speclflc reference Lo longer Lerm lmpacLs of cllmaLe change.
-.., /'012#&3 #* 45+)%*#6&%*
AgrlculLure ls Lhe largesL and mosL lmporLanL secLor ln AfghanlsLan wlLh over half of Lhe
households ownlng or managlng agrlculLural land or gardenlng ploLs. Cf Lhe 632 Lhousand
square kllomeLers of LoLal land area, permanenL pasLures cover 46 percenL whlle only an
esLlmaLed 12 percenL ls arable.
31
1he mosL vulnerable groups Lo cllmaLe change lmpacLs ln
AfghanlsLan wlll be Lhe pooresL such as small farmers and llvesLock keepers as Lhey are Lhe leasL
able Lo adapL. CLher groups, such as sedenLary farmers and nomads are less vulnerable due Lo
Lhelr ablllLy Lo move ln search for new pasLures. Casual laborers and clvll servanLs are also
affecLed Lhough less dlrecLly as Lhelr llvellhoods are noL (dlrecLly) a funcLlon of agrlculLural
producLlon. 1he acceleraLed process of seLLlemenL by Lhe kuchl populaLlons as a resulL of
cllmaLe change ls llkely Lo lncrease desLablllzlng pressures on small holdlng farmers ln rural
areas.

MosL women ln AfghanlsLan do noL parLlclpaLe ln pald economlc acLlvlLy. 1hey are hlghly
dependenL on Lhe men ln Lhelr famllles for Lhelr llvellhood expenses. Whlle some women can
generaLe some lncome from Lhelr own labour on land and/or ln handcrafLs, Lhe overwhelmlng
ma[orlLy of Lhe poorer women LogeLher wlLh Lhelr chlldren are among Lhe mosL vulnerable Lo
exLernal shocks such as cllmaLe change relaLed ouLcomes LhaL can alLer Lhe fraglle sLablllLy of
poorer famllles. Many of Lhe women lnLervlewed aL Lhe sLudy slLes for Lhls research worrled
LhaL unrellable weaLher paLLerns undermlnlng Lhe ablllLy of Lhelr households Lo produce food
could force many famllles lnLo llLerally selllng Lhelr young daughLers lnLo marrlages for Lhe
dowry as a source of Lemporary flnanclal rellef.

WheaL ls by far Lhe ma[or sLaple crop produced ln AfghanlsLan, maklng up Lo 77 percenL of Lhe
LoLal crops produced on lrrlgaLed land and 94 percenL of Lhe LoLal crops produced on raln-fed
land. CLher gralns lnclude barley, malze, rlce and pulses.
32
WheaL accounLs for around 70
percenL of Lhe LoLal cereal consumpLlon. 1he counLry ls noL normally self-sufflclenL ln wheaL and
has Lo lmporL supplemenLary amounLs Lo meeL demand. WheaL producLlon ls sub[ecL Lo changes

30
nLA and unL (2009).
31
CSC (2008).
32
M88u and CSC (2009).
www.appro.org.af 16
ln cllmaLe condlLlons. 1he average lmporLs of wheaL for years 2000-2004 accounLed for 33
percenL of Lhe LoLal demand.
33


Lack of access Lo waLer ls by far Lhe mosL lmporLanL reason Lo abandon land and seek oLher
forms of llvellhood (63 percenL ln Lhe case of lrrlgaLed land and 37 percenL or raln-fed land).
34

CLher maln reasons for noL culLlvaLlng are land lnferLlllLy (31 percenL of raln-fed land) and lack
of money or access Lo flnance for seeds and ferLlllzer (around 12 percenL for boLh Lypes of
lands). lnLeresLlngly and conLrary Lo Lhe common percepLlon, securlLy and confllcL over land do
noL feaLure promlnenLly as reasons for ouL mlgraLlon or dlsplacemenL of farmlng communlLles.
Accordlng Lo n8vA (2003) only 2 percenL abandoned land due Lo lnsecurlLy and 1 percenL due Lo
confllcL over ownershlp. Arguably, however, lnsecurlLy and ownershlp confllcLs can have a
slgnlflcanL lmpacL on declslons by governmenLal and developmenL ald agencles and Lhelr
programmlng ln Lhe less secure or confllcLed areas of Lhe counLry.

Speclflc predlcLlons abouL changes ln crop ylelds or lmpacLs of llvesLock are noL documenLed ln
Lhe reporLs revlewed for Lhls sLudy. 1he daLa from Lhe nCSA/nAA's flnal reporL ranks waLer
resources as Lhe mosL vulnerable secLor Lo changes ln cllmaLe. Cenerally smaller land ploLs,
waLer shorLages due Lo poor lrrlgaLlon sysLems and lack of ralnwaLer, lnsufflclenL access Lo
credlL, mlnlmal mechanlzaLlon, lnsufflclenL ouLreach ln agrlculLural and veLerlnary exLenslon
servlces, and poor accesslblllLy Lo markeLs and oLher communlLles are Lhe key challenges faced
by Lhe vasL ma[orlLy of Afghan farmers. 1hese challenges are exacerbaLed by ongolng and
perslsLenL confllcL ln many areas of Lhe counLry.

Accordlng Lo Lhe naLlonal 8lsk and vulnerablllLy AssessmenL (n8vA) for 2007/8, only 10 percenL
of households engaged ln agrlculLure recelved advlce on agrlculLural producLlon, ouL of whlch 94
percenL were saLlsfled wlLh Lhe advlce recelved. 1wenLy nlne percenL reporLed LhaL Lhey were
unable Lo access experL oplnlon. lamlne Larly Warnlng SysLems (lLWS) neLwork provldes a
mapplng based on pro[ecLlons of food lnsecurlLy for AfghanlsLan on a regular Lhough
lnconslsLenL and rapldly changlng basls.
33


Cn average Afghan famllles spenL 77 percenL of Lhelr lncome on food ln 2008. 1he flgure was 36
percenL ln 2003. 1he lncrease of more Lhan 20 percenL over four yeas has pushed large
segmenLs of Lhe prevlously borderllne food lnsecure populaLlon lnLo food lnsecurlLy.
36
World
lood rogramme's rapld assessmenL mlsslon ln 2008 found a slgnlflcanL lncrease ln Lhe number
of food lnsecure households over Lhe perlod beLween laLe 2006 and laLe 2007. 1here was a 10
percenL reducLlon ln Lhe number of households wlLhln Lhe food secure group and a 16 percenL
lncrease ln Lhe number of households LhaL were food lnsecure.
37
1he average number of meals
for adulLs remalns aL Lhree per day and four Lo flve meals per day for chlldren under flve years

33
MAlL (2009), clLed ln M88u and CSC (2009).
34
56.78
33
lamlne Larly Warnlng SysLems neLwork provldes perlodlc maps on Lhe sLaLe of food securlLy ln
AfghanlsLan. Maps from Lhe webslLe (hLLp://www.fews.neL/pages/counLry.aspx?gb=af&l=en) have noL
been lncluded ln Lhls reporL slnce Lhe pro[ecLlons consLanLly change for Lhe same quarLer and as Lhe
quarLer progresses.
36
Mo[umdar, A. (2009), AfghanlsLan: lood lnsecurlLy, Lhe problem LhaL never wenL away", avallable from
8ellefweb: hLLp://www.rellefweb.lnL/rw/rwb.nsf/db900Slu/8MCl-773Cu?CpenuocumenL
37
World lood rogramme 8eporL (2009), avallable from:
hLLp://documenLs.wfp.org/sLellenL/groups/publlc/documenLs/newsroom/wfp204443.pdf
www.appro.org.af 17
of age. Wl also reporLs slgnlflcanL lncreases across all sLable food groups lncludlng cereals
(lncludlng wheaL), rooLs, and oll and faLs ln 2008 as compared Lo 2006. WheaL, Lhe mosL
lmporLanL of all sLaple foods, lncreased ln prlce qulLe drasLlcally, by almosL 90 percenL, ln 2008
as compared Lo 2007, 2009, and 2010 ln all reglons of Lhe counLry.
38


llgure 3 provldes Lhe prlces for sLaple food groups ln 8alkh, PeraL, and nanagarhar for 2007,
2008, and 2009.
39
1he prlces for wheaL are charLed Lo lllusLraLe Lhe slgnlflcance of prlce changes
from 2007 Lo 2008. lood avallablllLy ln Lhese local markeLs has depended malnly on local
agrlculLural producLlon as well as food lmporLs from nelghbourlng and oLher counLrles. CllmaLe
change may affecL boLh sources.

-#+12' H7 K.0%" -.., B2#0'6 #* :%";)< ='2%&< %*, >%*+%2)%2 Z456\


Access Lo food ls a funcLlon of household lncome whlch ln mosL cases ln rural communlLles ls
from growlng crops. lalled crops resulL ln less or no lncome Lo purchase food, wlLh lncome from
casual labour ln nelghborlng Lowns or counLrles as Lhe only opLlon Lo ralse an lncome. lL has Lo
be noLed LhaL Lhe opLlon of ouL mlgraLlon ln search of casual work ls mosLly avallable Lo famllles
LhaL can afford Lhe expense and hence noL an opLlon for Lhe ulLra-poor wlLh no access Lo funds
Lo flnance Lhe cosLs of mlgraLlon.
B2.+2%$6 %*, B2.I'0&6 .* 4+2#01"&12' %*, -.., /'012#&3
As Lhls secLlon wlll lllusLraLe, Lhere ls no shorLage of sLudles on cllmaLe change, agrlculLural
producLlon, and food securlLy ln AfghanlsLan. 1wo broad characLerlsLlcs emerge from a selecLlve
revlew of Lhe key sLudles on food securlLy ln AfghanlsLan. llrsL, Lhe ma[orlLy of Lhe lnLernaLlonal
organlzaLlons lnvolved ln lssues of food producLlon and food securlLy have been acLlve ln
AfghanlsLan slnce Lhe 1960s, suggesLlng LhaL even wlLhouL Lhe specLer of cllmaLe change, food
securlLy has been a chronlc problem ln AfghanlsLan for Lhe lasL few decades and predaLlng Lhe
recenL naLlonal confllcLs. Second, Lhere appears Lo be a lack of reglonal or mlcro sLudles on food
securlLy. All of Lhe reporLs clLed ln Lhls secLlon have a decldedly naLlonal focus. Whlle a naLlonal
focus ls necessary for deLermlnlng naLlonal food ald needs, lL provldes llLLle or no lnslghL lnLo

38
56.78 1he hlke ln food prlces ln 2008, clLed by Wl (2009), was unlversal, however, and noL speclflc Lo
AfghanlsLan.
39
rlces are based on esLlmaLes provlded by key lnformanLs and randomly selecLed shopkeepers aL Lhe
Lhree sLudy slLes.
www.appro.org.af 18
locallzed coplng mechanlsms or local soluLlons for adapLlng Lo or mlLlgaLlng cllmaLe change-
relaLed ouLcomes.

1he World lood rogramme (Wl) has been presenL ln AfghanlsLan slnce 1963 and remalns
acLlve ln all Lhe 34 provlnces. ln recenL years Wl's focus has shlfLed from emergency asslsLance
Lo rehablllLaLlon and recovery. Wl almed Lo feed 8.8 mllllon people ln 2009, prlmarlly ln
remoLe, food-lnsecure rural areas. under pro[ecLs and programs such as School Meals, lood for
1ralnlng, lood for Work, MoLher and Chlld PealLh and nuLrlLlon, llour lorLlflcaLlon, 8ellef
CperaLlon, and Creenlng of AfghanlsLan lnlLlaLlve Wl's food asslsLance efforLs have LargeLed
poor and vulnerable famllles, schoolchlldren, Leachers, llllLeraLe people, Luberculosls paLlenLs
and Lhelr famllles, reLurnlng refugees, lnLernally dlsplaced persons, and dlsabled people - wlLh
an emphasls on vulnerable women and glrls.
40


lnLervenLlons by Lhe lood and AgrlculLure CrganlzaLlon of Lhe unlLed naLlons (lAC) ln
AfghanlsLan lnclude shorL-Lerm emergency and rehablllLaLlon and long-Lerm developmenL
pro[ecLs. ln food securlLy, lAC's pro[ecLs have focused on developlng AfghanlsLan's seed varleLy
and seed lndusLry developmenL, household food securlLy, nuLrlLlon and llvellhood, emergency
and rehablllLaLlon acLlvlLles, susLalnable agrlculLure and llvellhoods ln Lhe LasLern Pazara[aL,
lnLegraLed pesL managemenL under Lhe Lmergency PorLlculLural LlvesLock ro[ecL (PL),
developmenL of lnLegraLed dalry schemes, conLrolllng Lransboundary anlmal dleses, poulLry
pro[ecL developmenL, markeLlng lnformaLlon and expanslon, and rural lnfrasLrucLure and
lrrlgaLlon sysLems developmenL. lAC also has Lhe Speclal rogramme for lood SecurlLy" under
whlch lL alms Lo lmprove Lhe naLlonal and household food securlLy ln an economlcally and
envlronmenLally susLalnable manner.

As one of Lhe ma[or donors Lo AfghanlsLan's reconsLrucLlon, Lhe World 8ank's dlrecL and lndlrecL
conLrlbuLlon Lo lmprovlng food securlLy and llvellhoods has conslsLed of a number of large
pro[ecLs and programmes. World 8ank ls Lhe largesL donor Lo Lhe naLlonal SolldarlLy rogramme
whlch has flnanced over 30,000 communlLy pro[ecLs ln more Lhan 22,000 vlllages ln all 34
provlnces. uevelopmenL and reconsLrucLlon pro[ecLs ln lrrlgaLlon, rural roads, elecLrlflcaLlon,
and drlnklng waLer supply form abouL 80 percenL of Lhese pro[ecLs. 1he naLlonal Lmergency
8ural Access rogram (nL8A) ls almed aL provldlng year-round access Lo Lhe rural areas of
AfghanlsLan. WlLh some expecLed beneflLs Lo rural communlLles, more Lhan 630, 000 currenL
[obs are aLLrlbuLable Lo Lhe Lxpandlng Mlcroflnance CuLreach and SusLalnablllLy ro[ecL. 1he
8ank reporLs LhaL over 600, 000 households ln all 34 provlnces of Lhe counLry have beneflLed
from Lhe rehablllLaLlon of mulLlple lrrlgaLlon sysLems Lhrough Lhe lrrlgaLlon 8ehablllLaLlon
ro[ecL.
41


1he Aslan uevelopmenL 8ank's asslsLance Lo agrlculLure and food securlLy ln AfghanlsLan
encompasses a wlde range of pro[ecLs, programmes, and Lechnlcal asslsLance. lollowlng Lhe
esLabllshmenL of Lhe new governmenL ln Lhe counLry ln 2002, some of Lhe maln pro[ecLs ln Lhls
area have been 8ural 8ecovery Lhrough CommunlLy 8ased lrrlgaLlon 8ehablllLaLlon, CapaclLy
8ulldlng for AgrlculLural ollcy 8eform, WesLern 8asln's WaLer 8esources ManagemenL and
lrrlgaLed AgrlculLure uevelopmenL ro[ecLs, 8alkh 8lver 8asln WaLer 8esource ManagemenL,
Commerclal AgrlculLure uevelopmenL, CapaclLy uevelopmenL for lrrlgaLlon and WaLer 8esources

40
lor deLalls of Wl programmes, please see: hLLp://www.wfp.org/node/3191
41
World 8ank (2009).
www.appro.org.af 19
ManagemenL, Afghan 8ural 8uslness SupporL ro[ecL, AgrlculLure MarkeL lnfrasLrucLure ro[ecL,
and WaLer 8esources uevelopmenL lnvesLmenL rogram.
42


uSAlu's lnlLlaLlves have focused on lmprovlng food securlLy, lncreaslng agrlculLural producLlvlLy
and rural employmenL, and lmprovlng famlly lncomes and wellbelng. WlLh lLs ald Lo agrlculLure
secLor LoLallng uS$490 mllllon beLween 2002 and 2009, uSAlu's agrlculLure and food securlLy
pro[ecLs have lncluded waLershed managemenL and lrrlgaLlon, consLrucLlon of farm-Lo-markeL
roads and markeLplace lnfrasLrucLure, buslness and skllls Lralnlng, access Lo credlL, developmenL
of new markeLs, and sLreamllnlng consLralnLs LhaL hlnder agrlculLural markeL growLh.
43


1he unlLed naLlons LnvlronmenL rogramme (unL) wlLh fundlng from Lhe Clobal
LnvlronmenLal laclllLy (CLl) has a mandaLe Lo asslsL Lhe CovernmenL of AfghanlsLan Lo
lmplemenL Lhe naLlonal CapaclLy needs Self-AssessmenL for Clobal LnvlronmenLal ManagemenL
(nCSA) as well as Lhe naLlonal AdapLaLlon rogramme of AcLlon for CllmaLe Change (nAA).
1hrough Lhls process Lhe vulnerablllLy of varlous secLors lncludlng agrlculLure and waLer
resources Lo poLenLlal lmpacLs of cllmaLe change and Lhelr adapLaLlon needs were Lo be
lndenLlfled. Moreover, proflles for Lhe Lwo prlorlLy pro[ecLs were Lo be developed Lo serve as
plloL pro[ecLs faclllLaLlng knowledge sharlng among sLakeholders aL dlfferenL levels. unL ls also
Lo provlde capaclLy bulldlng wlLhln Lhe relevanL governmenLal deparLmenLs.
44
(See above for
addlLlonal program deLalls on nCSA).

1he Luropean Commlsslon (LC) has been presenL ln AfghanlsLan slnce Lhe fall of Lhe 1allban ln
laLe 2001 and asslsLed Lhe counLry's reconsLrucLlon and sLablllzaLlon wlLh over Lu8 1.2 bllllon (Lo
Lhe end of 2008) ln areas such as governance, publlc healLh, soclal proLecLlon, demlnlng,
reglonal cooperaLlon, relnLegraLlon of Afghan refugees, and rural developmenL. 1he Commlsslon
has supporLed Lhe naLlonal SolldarlLy rogram wlLh over Lu8 30 mllllon slnce lncepLlon ln 2003.
Many of Lhe communlLy pro[ecLs under Lhls program have been almed aL poverLy reducLlon and
lmprovlng quallLy of llfe ln rural areas ln such areas as waLer sanlLaLlon, LransporLaLlon,
lrrlgaLlon, energy, educaLlon, and llvellhood. A number of Lhe LC pro[ecLs ln rural developmenL
have focused on lmprovlng anlmal healLh and veLerlnarlan pracLlces, horLlculLure and seed
lmprovemenL, lrrlgaLlon and rlver basln managemenL, envlronmenL, food lnsecurlLy,
vulnerablllLy and poverLy lnformaLlon managemenL, and alLernaLlve llvellhoods. Ald Lo rural
developmenL makes up Lo 30 percenL of Lhe LoLal LC ald Lo AfghanlsLan for Lhe perlod 2007 -
2010.
43


AL a more local level, Lhe uanlsh CommlLLee for Ald Lo Afghan 8efugees (uACAA8) has been
acLlve ln agrlculLural developmenL ln AfghanlsLan slnce Lhe early 1990s, gradually expandlng lLs
acLlvlLles Lo a number of Afghan provlnces lncludlng PeraL, 8adghls, larah, 8alkh, 1akhar, kunar,
nangarhar, Laghman, kabul, arwan, and akLla. uACAA8's acLlvlLles are pro-poor ln Lhe sense

42
ueLalls of Lhe pro[ecLs are avallable on:
hLLp://www.adb.org/ro[ecLs/approvals.asp?query=&browse=1&p=cLryafg&cLry=AlC&year=ALL&offseL=0
43
lor uSAlu's agrlculLural programme deLalls see: hLLp://afghanlsLan.usald.gov/en/rogram.19a.aspx
44
nLA and unL (2009), avallable from:
hLLp://www.Lhegef.org/gef/slLes/Lhegef.org/flles/documenLs/documenL/ncsa-afghanlsLan-fr-ap.pdf
43
lor addlLlonal lnformaLlon see:
hLLp://ec.europa.eu/europeald/where/asla/counLry-cooperaLlon/afghanlsLan/afghanlsLan_en.hLm
hLLp://www.delafg.ec.europa.eu/en/cooperaLlon/lndex.hLm
hLLp://www.delafg.ec.europa.eu/en/cooperaLlon/rural-dev.hLm
www.appro.org.af 20
LhaL Lhey prlmarlly LargeL some of AfghanlsLan's mosL vulnerable rural communlLles, lncludlng
lnLernally dlsplaced people, refugees, landless labourers and female-headed households. A mosL
noLable achlevemenL by uACAA8 has been lLs collaboraLlon wlLh local dlsadvanLaged farmers Lo
lnLroduce new crops such as saffron, parLlcularly ln Lhe wesLern provlnces. ln so dolng, uACAA8
has worked closely wlLh key governmenLal mlnlsLrles such as MlnlsLry of AgrlculLure, lrrlgaLlon
and LlvesLock (MAlL), MlnlsLry of 8ural 8ehablllLaLlon and uevelopmenL (M88u), MlnlsLry of
Women's Affalrs (MoWA), and MlnlsLry of WaLer and Lnergy (MoWL).
46


Cxfam novlb's programmlng Lhrough lLs Afghan counLerparLs has also been lmplemenLed aL Lhe
local communlLy level and lncludes lood SecurlLy 8esponse, CommunlLy 8ased ulsasLer
ManagemenL, lood SecurlLy ro[ecL ln laryab/PeraL, and lnLegraLed 8ural uevelopmenL
rogramme whlch focuses on lssues of lrrlgaLlon and waLer managemenL, provlslon of
agrlculLural lnpuLs and exLenslon servlces, veLerlnary servlces, vocaLlonal Lralnlng programmes
for women, communlLy-based dlsasLer managemenL, and food and cash for work. Cxfam C8
works ln 63 vlllages ln Lwo provlnces ln AfghanlsLan. lL helps communlLles Lo lmprove Lhelr
means of earnlng a sufflclenL, susLalnable llvlng. Cxfam C8 also works wlLh CommunlLy
uevelopmenL Counclls Lhrough Lhe naLlonal SolldarlLy rogram and provldes asslsLance Lo
vulnerable communlLles durlng humanlLarlan emergencles such as droughLs.

1he maln governmenLal bodles lnvolved ln lssues of food securlLy and cllmaLe change are Lhe
MlnlsLry of AgrlculLure, lrrlgaLlon and LlvesLock (MAlL), MlnlsLry of 8ural 8ehablllLaLlon and
uevelopmenL (M88u), naLlonal LnvlronmenLal roLecLlon Agency (nLA), and AfghanlsLan
naLlonal ulsasLer ManagemenL AuLhorlLy (AnuMA). CollecLlvely, Lhese enLlLles lmplemenL a
wlde range of pro[ecLs and programmes funded and Lechnlcally asslsLed by Lhe above and oLher
lnLernaLlonal donors.

uurlng Lhe slLe vlslLs Lhe key lnformanLs and focus group parLlclpanLs were asked abouL Lhe
above lnlLlaLlves and wheLher and how any or all of Lhese lnlLlaLlves had lmproved Lhelr food
securlLy. 1he flndlngs from Lhe responses are reporLed ln Lhe nexL secLlon.
47

-.., /'012#&3 %*, !"#$%&' !)%*+' Q 89#,'*0' 52.$ /&1,3 /#&'6
1he flndlngs reporLed ln Lhls secLlon, whlle varylng ln speclflc deLalls, by and large correspond Lo
Lhe lnLer-relaLed Lhemes of lood SecurlLy, CllmaLe Change and Loss of Puman CaplLal, CllmaLe
Change and Loss of naLural CaplLal, lood Ald rovlslon and SecurlLy, and Local 8esponses Lo
CllmaLe Change. Arguably, some of Lhese Lhemes are more dlrecLly relaLed Lo cllmaLe change
Lhan oLhers.

1here ls a sLrong correlaLlon beLween changes ln weaLher paLLerns due Lo cllmaLe change and
Lhe ablllLy Lo grow crops. ln many ways, cllmaLe change also appears Lo acL as caLalysL for
slgnlflcanL oLher changes ln households. Loss of crops or lnablllLy Lo grow crops due Lo cllmaLe
change depleLes food sources and Lrlggers efforLs Lo secure lncome Lo purchase food. CuL-

46
lor addlLlonal lnformaLlon see: hLLp://www.dacaar.org
47
8roader assessmenL of Lhe effecLlveness of Lhese programs ln addresslng food lnsecurlLy ln general or
cllmaLe change-relaLed food lnsecurlLy was noL posslble due Lo a general lack of developmenL program
evaluaLlons ln AfghanlsLan or unavallablllLy of exlsLlng evaluaLlons.
www.appro.org.af 21
mlgraLlon for Lhose who could afford lL ls one such coplng sLraLegy by many rural households.
Powever, ouL-mlgraLlon has Lhe poLenLlal Lo creaLe addlLlonal problems such as drug addlcLlon
whlch resulLs ln lncome loss lf Lhe mlgranL worker does noL reLurn or becomes an addlLlonal
burden on Lhe household on reLurn. ln boLh cases, Lhe household becomes sub[ecL Lo addlLlonal
lncome lnsecurlLy and hence food lnsecurlLy.

1he remalnder of Lhls secLlon provldes a background on each of Lhe selecLed slLes of research
and reporLs on Lhe flndlngs from Lhe analysls of Lhe daLa from lnLervlews, focus group
dlscusslons, and secondary sources.
:%";)
8alkh provlnce has a populaLlon of 1.1 mllllon (31 percenL male, 49 percenL female) and ls
slLuaLed ln Lhe norLh of AfghanlsLan and borderlng uzbeklsLan Lo Lhe norLh, 1a[lklsLan Lo Lhe
norLheasL, kunduz provlnce Lo Lhe easL, Samangan provlnce Lo Lhe souLheasL, Sar-e-ul provlnce
Lo Lhe souLhwesL and !aws[an provlnce Lo Lhe wesL. Mazar-e-Sharlf ls Lhe provlnclal caplLal wlLh
an esLlmaLed populaLlon of 373,000 lnhablLanLs and one of Lhe largesL commerclal and flnanclal
cenLers ln AfghanlsLan due Lo a hlsLory of commerce wlLh Lhe nelghborlng counLrles Lo Lhe norLh
and havlng experlenced a relaLlvely lower degree of confllcL durlng Lhe pasL Lhree decades as
compared Lo Lhe resL of Lhe counLry. 1here are 14 dlsLrlcLs ln 8alkh provlnce. 1he Lwo mosL
populous dlsLrlcLs afLer Mazar-e Sharlf are 8alkh (97,000) and Sholgare (83,000).

:%6#0 /.0#.'0.*.$#0 ^%&%7
J%#* '0.*.$#0 %0&#9#&#'67 roducLlon of subslsLence corps such as wheaL, corn, rlce, malze,
beans, and peas, lndusLrlal crops such as coLLon, sugar exLracL, sugar cane, sesame, Lobacco,
and ollves, varlous frulLs and vegeLables, herbal producLs, handlcrafLs, anlmal producLs,
Lourlsm, as well as small lndusLrles are some of Lhe maln economlc acLlvlLles ln 8alkh
provlnce. Slnce 8alkh borders 1a[lklsLan and uzbeklsLan, Lrade ls also a ma[or economlc
acLlvlLy ln Lhe provlnce. (unlA 2006)
J%#* *%&12%" 2'6.120'67 8alkh ls noL rlch ln mlneral resources. Coal deposlLs ln uara-e-Suff,
whlch are belng explolLed, are now falllng under Lhe admlnlsLraLlon of Samanagan. LlmlLed
perennlal rlver waLer flowlng from hlgher alLlLudes ln Lhe souLh of Lhe provlnce recharges Lhe
ground waLer ln Lhe norLhern plalns. 1he ground waLer Lable ls, however, falrly deep Lhough
accesslble for Lube well lrrlgaLlon. 1he hlgh quallLy soll and waLer allow for lnLenslve double
cropplng ln Lhe norLhern plalns.
48

F*5"%&#.*7 1he annual lnflaLlon raLes for Lhe year 2007-08 and 2008-09 were 21.3 percenL and
0.6 percenL respecLlvely. 1he flgures for Lhe counLry ln Lhe same years were 22.3 percenL and
4.9 percenL (CSC 2009)
B.9'2&3 ,%&%7 Accordlng Lo Lhe n8vA 2007/8, Lhe poverLy raLe for 8alkh was ln Lhe range of
33-76 percenL. 1he naLlonal poverLy raLe ls 36 percenL.

1he vlllage of Lalml ln Lhe ulsLrlcL of uawlaLabad ls locaLed ln Lhe norLheasL of Lhe 8alkh
rovlnce. 1he ulsLrlcL has an esLlmaLed populaLlon of around 80,000.
49
1he hlghllghLs from Lhe
analysls of Lhe lnLervlews and focus group dlscusslons are as follows.


48
C8M lnLernaLlonal, 8eglonal 8ural Lconomlc 8egeneraLlon SLraLegles, rovlnclal roflle - 8alkh
49
unlA (2006).
www.appro.org.af 22
-.., /'012#&37 As long as l can remember Lhere has been endemlc poverLy ln many parLs of
Lhls provlnce" (kl-82). 1he vasL ma[orlLy of Lhose lnLervlewed spoke of perslsLenL food
lnsecurlLy ln rural areas for Lhe lasL 10-12 years. Lven ln good years when Lhere ls sufflclenL
waLer, mosL smallholders are only able Lo grow a porLlon of Lhelr food needs, havlng Lo
purchase Lhe resL from sLores (lCu-81). AffordablllLy, raLher Lhan avallablllLy appears Lo be
Lhe maln problem: lood ls wldely avallable ln shops buL mosL people cannoL afford Lhe
prlces" (lCu-P3).

!"#$%&' !)%*+' %*, K.66 .5 =1$%* !%W#&%"7 A large number of men have lefL Lhe vlllages for
lran or larger clLles ln AfghanlsLan ln search of work. very ofLen Lhe mlgranL workers,
parLlcularly Lhose who go Lo lran, become vlcLlms of drug addlcLlon or bulld new llves wlLh
Lhe end resulL of falllng Lo send remlLLances Lo Lhelr famllles back home. A number of focus
group parLlclpanLs reporLed LhaL some of Lhe mlgranLs reLurn Lo Lhelr communlLles as drug
addlcLs, causlng furLher hardshlps for Lhelr already desperaLe famllles. 1he maln problem
from cllmaLe change ls hunger whlch causes Lhe loss of our young men Lo oLher places or
counLrles ln search of work and desperaLlon and loslng hope for Lhose LhaL remaln behlnd"
(lCu-81).

!"#$%&' !)%*+' %*, K.66 .5 >%&12%" !%W#&%"7 ln Lhe lasL Lhree decades durlng Lhe droughL
perlods, many people ln rural areas have abandoned Lhelr land and moved elLher Lo oLher
areas or oLher counLrles. Cn numerous occaslons when Lhe farmers have reLurned Lo Lhelr
land, Lhey have noL been able Lo sLarL over agaln because Lhe land has been neglecLed,
requlrlng much preparaLlon and oLher lnpuL whlch mosL of Lhe reLurnees cannoL afford (kl-
82).

-.., 4#, B2.9#6#.* %*, /'012#&37 SecurlLy ls a very serlous problem for ald organlzaLlons ln
provldlng asslsLance Lo hard-hlL rural communlLles. As one key lnformanL puL lL, .we know
LhaL l8u [lnLernaLlonal 8ellef and uevelopmenL lnc.] has a programme Lo asslsL 130,000
farmers ln Lhe provlnce. naLurally, l8u would prefer Lo go Lo areas LhaL are more secure.
8ecause of Lhls, a loL of Lhe people mosL ln need are neglecLed because of poor securlLy ln
Lhelr areas. kunduz used Lo be known as 'Lhe bread baskeL' of AfghanlsLan. MosL of Lhe
asslsLance programmes Lhere have sLopped ln Lhe pasL 2 or 3 years because of a serlous
deLerloraLlon ln securlLy" (kl-81). 8ecause of helghLened lnsecurlLy ln mosL areas, access Lo
such servlces such as mlcrocredlL have ceased Lo be provlded ln some areas or where Lhey
are belng provlded borrowlng ls dlfflculL because of worrles abouL Lhe ablllLy of Lhe
borrower Lo pay.

K.0%" A'6W.*6'6 &. !"#$%&' !)%*+'7 1here ls, parLlcularly among Lhe more lnformed
offlclals lnLervlewed, a sense of frusLraLlon abouL Lhe dlfferenL responses Lo cllmaLe change:
_We need Lo be Lhlnklng abouL dolng Lhlngs dlfferenLly. All over Lhe world people are Lalklng
abouL Lhe lmpacLs of cllmaLe change and we conLlnue Lo dlg blgger and deeper wells as lf
Lhere ls no end Lo groundwaLer" (kl-83), or, 8ecause Lhere are no sysLems Lo check Lhe
lncomlng seeds, ferLlllzers, or produce from places llke aklsLan we geL crop dlseases LhaL
we never had before, llke melon fly ln Pelmand" (kl-81). 1here have been lnsLances of food
for work", buL noL everyone ln need has beneflLed from Lhese programmes and Lhe
programmes have been of a llmlLed duraLlon. 1he longer Lerm, however, requlres plannlng
aL Lhe naLlonal level and LhaL lncludes dolng someLhlng abouL Lhe Lerrlble securlLy slLuaLlon"
(kl-83).
www.appro.org.af 23
='2%&
PeraL provlnce has a populaLlon of approxlmaLely 1.8 mllllon, wlLh equal numbers of males and
females.
30
1he provlnce borders lran Lo Lhe wesL, 1urkmenlsLan and 8adghls provlnce Lo Lhe
norLh, Chor provlnce Lo Lhe easL, and larah provlnce Lo Lhe souLh. 1he clLy of PeraL ls Lhe
provlnclal caplLal wlLh a populaLlon of almosL 400,000. PeraL provlnce has flfLeen dlsLrlcLs of
whlch Lhe Lhree mosL populaLed afLer PeraL ClLy are Ln[ll (223,000), Shlndand (183,000), and
Cuzare (133,000). An esLlmaLed 77 percenL of Lhe provlnce's populaLlon llves ln Lhe rural areas.

:%6#0 /.0#.'0.*.$#0 ^%&%7
J%#* '0.*.$#0 %0&#9#&#'67 AgrlculLure, anlmal husbandry, Lrade and servlces, manufacLurlng,
non-farm labor, and remlLLances are Lhe key sources of lncome by households ln PeraL
(M88u and CSC 2007).
J%#* *%&12%" 2'6.120'67 ueposlLs of oll, gold, salL, llme, 8arlLe, Sulfur, marble, and cemenL
have been found ln PeraL ln economlcally slgnlflcanL quanLlLles. naLural plsLachlo foresLs are
presenL ln Lhe norLheasLern PeraL. Medlclnal planLs such as llquorlces and black cumln are
also found ln Lhe provlnce. 1he Parl 8ud rlver and sLrong seasonal wlnds offer hlgh poLenLlals
for power generaLlon and relaLed developmenLs (C8M undaLed).
F*5"%&#.*7 1he lnflaLlon raLes for Lhe counLry ln Lhe years 2007/8 and 2008/9 were 22.3
percenL and 4.9 percenL, respecLlvely. 1hese flgures for PeraL durlng Lhe same years were
22.3 percenL and 13.0 percenL respecLlvely.
B.9'2&3 ,%&%7 Accordlng Lo n8vA 2007/08, Lhe poverLy raLe for PeraL was ln Lhe range of 31 -
43 percenL. 1he naLlonal poverLy raLe ls 36 percenL.

1he vlllage of Chahar Clang ls locaLed ln Lhe norLhern parL of provlnce and has an esLlmaLed
populaLlon of around 134,000.
31
1he hlghllghLs from Lhe analysls of Lhe lnLervlews and focus
group dlscusslons are as follows.

-.., /'012#&37 We have always had hardshlp, only now Lhe dlfference ls LhaL we have
hardshlp more ofLen Lhan before" (lCu-P3). Cur problems ln farmlng sLarLed wlLh Lhe
Mu[ahedeen and soon afLer 1988-9 because many farmers were encouraged Lo planL
Caraway on pasLureland, whlch dralns nuLrlenLs ouL of Lhe soll and renders lL useless for
pasLure laLer. 1hls, comblned wlLh droughL meanL LhaL around 70 percenL of Lhe farmers
PeraL had Lo sell off Lhelr anlmals and move ouL of farmlng" (kl-P4). lnablllLy Lo grow food
because of changes ln Lhe cllmaLe was sald Lo creaLe anxleLy and confllcL ln Lhe affecLed
communlLles (kl-P1). 1here have been numerous soclal lmpacLs from cllmaLe change ln our
communlLles lncludlng compeLlng for scarce resources whlch seLs famlly or communlLy
members up agalnsL each oLher and lncreases lnequlLles ln wealLh dlsLrlbuLlon wlLhln Lhe
affecLed communlLles" (kl-P3). 1hese lnequlLles were sald Lo be Lhe basls for lncreased
crlmlnal acLlvlLy such as sLeallng and a general deLerloraLlon of securlLy (lCu-P1). lood
lnsecurlLy was underllned as Lhe cause of poor healLh, confllcL ln Lhe famlly and socleLy,
lndebLedness, ouL-mlgraLlon, and numerous oLher problems (lCu-P2). 1here are reporLs of
many poorer famllles eaLlng grasses or planL rooLs Lo survlve, . especlally people from
Adreskan, lahrsl, and kashk kohneh" (kl-P6). CLhers have resorLed Lo eaLlng a parLlcular

30
CSC/unlA Socloeconomlc and uemographlc roflle clLe ln M88u provlnclal proflles
31
unlA (2006)
www.appro.org.af 24
planL Lo overcome hunger (kl-P4). As one focus group parLlclpanL puL lL, ln Lhe old days
people would dle of exLreme wlnLer cold. now Lhey dle of hunger" (lCu-P1).

!"#$%&' !)%*+' %*, K.66 .5 =1$%* !%W#&%"7 As wlLh Lhe 8alkh and nangarhar cases, a large
number of young men from PeraL go Lo lran ln search of work. 1hey may supporL Lhelr
famllles Lhrough sendlng remlLLances. As wlLh Lhe case of 8alkh, a slgnlflcanL number of
Lhese men may noL flnd work ln lran and/or fall vlcLlm Lo drug addlcLlon (lCu-P2). 8ecause
of economlc hardshlp and lack of work, more Lhan 93 percenL of our men have lefL Lo work
ln oLher counLrles" (lCu-P1). MosL rural famllles suffer from depresslon, slckness,
lndebLedness, and loss of able-bodled famlly members Lo mlgraLlon" (lCu-P3).

!"#$%&' !)%*+' %*, K.66 .5 >%&12%" !%W#&%"7 Pardshlps caused by changes ln Lhe cllmaLe
have been golng on ln PeraL for aL leasL 10 years (kl-P1). lmpacLs of cllmaLe change lnclude
a noLlceable dlsappearance of ground cover, floods and land eroslon (kl-P1, kl-P6). CllmaLe
change also meanL recurrlng droughL, unseasonal raln, reducLlon ln agrlculLural yleld, loss of
anlmals, conLamlnaLlon of drlnklng waLer, envlronmenLal damage, spread of dlseases among
humans and anlmals, and unemploymenL (lCu-P3). A general lowerlng of Lhe waLer Lable ls
observed whlle Lhe number of new deep wells belng dug has lncreased (kl-P2, lCu-P2).
8ecause Lhe change ln weaLher paLLerns, a number of naLurally growlng LradlLlonal
medlclnal planLs such as khak e Shlr" (MugworL seeds), kaseer", and kangar" (9$%7,0./
&#$2%,)#2&..) have been decllnlng (kl-P6). Slmllarly, . ln Lhe lasL 20 or 30 years we have losL
a loL of our local anlmals and planLs because of changes ln Lhe weaLher" (lCu-P1).

-.., 4#, B2.9#6#.* %*, /'012#&37 LxcepL for PeraL ClLy, mosL of Lhe provlnce suffers from
lnsecurlLy due Lo pollLlcal anLl-governmenL and general crlmlnal acLlvlLy. 1here have been a
number of lnlLlaLlves Lo address agrlculLure relaLed lssues by CPA, uACAA8, C8S, and lAC.
Powever, one key lnformanL polnLed ouL LhaL wlLhouL pollLlcal sLablllLy Lhe progress on
mosL of Lhese efforLs ls llkely Lo be llmlLed due Lo prevalenL lawlessness (kl-P1).

K.0%" A'6W.*6'6 &. !"#$%&' !)%*+'7 _We cannoL do anyLhlng for our people. We have a loL
of plans Lo do Lhlngs buL we do noL have Lhe capaclLy Lo lmplemenL Lhem" (kl-P6). 1he
currenL problems wlLh agrlculLure were summed up by Lhe respondenLs as: Lawlessness,
bad plannlng or no plannlng, lgnorance of Lhe ecosysLems LhaL supporL farmlng, poverLy and
llllLeracy, absence of programmes Lo rehablllLaLe farmland and naLural resources, droughLs,
perslsLenL confllcL, shorLage of naLural resource experLs, and lnsufflclenL research (kl-P6). lf
we can address all Lhese lssues slmulLaneously, lL ls noL unreasonable Lo expecL LhaL we wlll
reconsLrucL Lhe agrlculLural secLor ln 13 years" (kl-P4). A number of respondenLs reporLed
Lhe exlsLence of food for work" programmes and oLher asslsLance schemes such as deeper
wells for droughL-sLrlcken areas. Whlle Lhese pro[ecLs were vlewed as necessary by some
respondenLs Lo allevlaLe hardshlp for a llmlLed number of people, oLhers argued for a more
long-Lerm vlslon LhaL conslsLed of lnLroduclng new or modlfled seeds and ferLlllzers and
lnvesLlgaLlng new crops such as Saffron as someLhlng LhaL may be more sulLable Lo arld
areas (kl-P2, kl-P4).
>%*+%2)%2
LocaLed ln Lhe easLern AfghanlsLan, nangarhar provlnce bordera kunar and Laghman provlnces
Lo Lhe norLh, kabul, Logar, and akLla provlnces Lo Lhe wesL, and aklsLan Lo Lhe easL and souLh.
www.appro.org.af 23
1he provlnce has an esLlmaLed populaLlon of 1.34 mllllon ouL of whlch around 87 percenL llves ln
rural areas. 1he populaLlon ls 31 percenL male and 49 percenL female. !alalabad ls Lhe caplLal
clLy wlLh a populaLlon of [usL over 200,000 resldenLs. 1here are 21 dlsLrlcLs ln nangarhar Lhe
mosL populaLed of whlch afLer !alalabad are 8ehsood (119,000), khoglanl (111,000), Acheen
(93,000), and Surkhrud (92,000).

:%6#0 /.0#.'0.*.$#0 ^%&%7
J%#* '0.*.$#0 %0&#9#&#'67 AgrlculLure, Lrade and servlces, llvesLock, non-farm labor, and
remlLLances are Lhe key sources of lncome ln Lhe provlnce.
J%#* *%&12%" 2'6.120'67 nangarhar has abundanL waLer resources and naLural foresLs. Also,
slgnlflcanL deposlLs of marble have been found ln Lhe khoglanl dlsLrlcL.
F*5"%&#.*7 1he lnflaLlon raLe ln nangarhar was 22.9 percenL ln for 2007/8 and 1.1 percenL ln
2008/9. 1he naLlonal flgures for Lhese years are 22.3 percenL and 4.9 percenL, respecLlvely.
B.9'2&3 ,%&%7 Accordlng Lo Lhe n8vA 2007/08, Lhe poverLy raLe for nangarhar ls ln Lhe range
of 31-43 percenL. 1he naLlonal flgure for poverLy raLe ls 36 percenL.

1he vlllage of laLeh Abad ln Lhe ulsLrlcL of Surkh 8od ls locaLed ln norLh of Lhe nangarhar
rovlnce and has an esLlmaLed populaLlon of around 92,000.
32
1he hlghllghLs from Lhe analysls
of Lhe lnLervlews and focus group dlscusslons are as follows.

-.., /'012#&37 As long as anyone can remember, we have had problems wlLh food
shorLage. Lven our faLhers and grandfaLhers Lell us sLorles abouL Lhelr hardshlps Lo flnd
enough food Lo feed Lhemselves and Lhelr famllles" (lCu-n4). 1he change ln cllmaLe was
noLed as havlng been Lhe mosL severe ln Lhe lasL 10-13 years. 1here were numerous cases of
farmers wlLh slzable ploLs of land who had abandoned Lhe land for work ln !alalabad. 1he
relaLlve assurance of worklng 2 or 3 days per week for a dally wage of [usL over 100 Afghanls
was preferable Lo puLLlng Llme and energy lnLo farmlng wlLh a rlsk of loslng everyLhlng Lo
droughL or flood.

!"#$%&' !)%*+' %*, K.66 .5 =1$%* !%W#&%"7 A large number of people have moved ouL of
Lhese communlLles Lo Lhe nelghbourlng aklsLan for work. unllke Lhe case wlLh Lhe mlgranLs
Lo lran from 8alkh, Lhere were no reporLs of addlcLed reLurnee mlgranLs ln nangarhar, only
concern abouL loslng young able-bodled famlly members Lo hard labour abroad.

!"#$%&' !)%*+' %*, K.66 .5 >%&12%" !%W#&%"7 All Lhose lnLervlewed reporLed numerous cases
of desperaLe farmers selllng off land or farm anlmal for a fracLlon of Lhe markeL value so as
Lo relleve lmmedlaLe food-relaLed needs of Lhelr famllles. Cne lmmedlaLe lmpllcaLlon has
been a change ln Lhe dleLary makeup of Lhe famllles who no longer have access Lo dalry
producLs. Also, lL was reporLed LhaL Lrees conLlnued Lo be cuL down by Lhe many desperaLe
households for wlnLer or cooklng fuel or Lo sell.

-.., 4#, B2.9#6#.* %*, /'012#&37 locus group parLlclpanLs reporLed LhaL ln Lhe more remoLe
parLs of nangarhar wlLh access Lo waLer, Lhose who conLrol Lhe waLer do noL follow orders
from Lhe ueparLmenL of AgrlculLure Lo release waLer Lo droughL sLrlcken areas buL use lL,
lnsLead, Lo lrrlgaLe poppy flelds wlLh no one Lo deLer Lhem (lCu-n2).


32
unlA (2006)
www.appro.org.af 26
K.0%" A'6W.*6'6 &. !"#$%&' !)%*+'7 Slmllar Lo Lhe 8alkh case, numerous focus group
parLlclpanLs and a number of key lnformanLs complalned abouL deep wells belng dug by Lhe
rlcher farmers or by ald agencles wlLhouL Laklng lnLo accounL Lhe ecologlcal consequence of
depleLlng groundwaLer resources or ensurlng LhaL waLer was belng dlsLrlbuLed falrly among
all Lhose who needed lL. CommenLlng on Lhe response Lo daLe, one key lnformanL argued for
an adapLlve approach Lo deallng wlLh Lhe consequences of cllmaLe change: now LhaL we
know Lhe weaLher paLLerns have changed, we have Lo change Loo. We need new seeds and
dlfferenL farmlng meLhods so we can conLlnue Lo farm desplLe Lhe changed condlLlons" (kl-
n3). uesplLe Lhe hardshlps caused by changes ln Lhe weaLher paLLerns, many farmers
conLlnue Lo produce crops, someLlme ln excess of Lhelr own needs. Powever, slnce Lhere
are lnsufflclenL or no faclllLles Lo sLore Lhe excess crops, Lhe crops are elLher sold cheaply or
spoll and evenLually fed Lo anlmals. A number of farmers asked for asslsLance ln bulldlng
sLorage or oLher faclllLles Lo help Lhem make beLLer use of Lhelr excess produce.

ln addlLlon Lo Lhe lssues ralsed above, Lhere were concerns abouL Lhe naLure of ald belng
provlded Lo Lhe rural communlLles. Accordlng Lo one key lnformanL, . lf we glve every
desLlLuLe person a bushel of wheaL, we glve people no lncenLlve Lo help Lhemselves and Lhey
very qulckly come Lo expecL handouLs and ald from Lhe lnLernaLlonal communlLy because lL ls
much easler Lhan farmlng" (kl-P6). MechanlzaLlon and more efflclenL ways of planLlng and
waLerlng were offered as Lhe more effecLlve way of helplng Lhe communlLles Lo help
Lhemselves.

Also, a number of lnLervlewees and focus group parLlclpanLs polnLed ouL LhaL avallablllLy of food
was noL a problem buL Lhe ablllLy Lo buy was because wlLhouL Lhe ablllLy Lo farm Lhere was no
rellable source of lncome. Some Look excepLlon Lo havlng Lo pay for crops ln Lhe markeL LhaL
Lhey could grow Lhemselves for a fracLlon of Lhe prlce. Slmllarly, for Lhose LhaL conLlnued Lo
grow crops and keep anlmals, Lhe cosLs of some lnpuLs or servlces were prohlblLlvely hlgh. 1he
few farmers wlLh llvesLock complalned LhaL Lhey could noL afford Lhe cosL of pay for veLerlnary
servlces, for example.

Much of Lhe agrlculLural acLlvlLy by smallholders uLlllzes prlmlLlve Lools. lf droughL resulLs ln loss
of oxen or oLher farm anlmals LhaL could be used Lo Llll Lhe land, Lhe farmers do Lhe Lllllng
Lhemselves and ofLen resorL Lo uslng Lhelr chlldren for farm work aL Lhe expense of sendlng
Lhem Lo school.

1he nexL secLlon hlghllghLs Lhe key flndlngs from Lhe daLa presenLed ln Lhls secLlon.
-.., /'012#&3 %*, !"#$%&' !)%*+' #* 45+)%*#6&%* Q V'3 -#*,#*+6
8ased on Lhe revlew of Lhe avallable llLeraLure, Lhe lnLervlews wlLh key lnformanLs, and Lhe
focus group dlscusslons, Lhere appears Lo be wldespread appreclaLlon of Lhe (poLenLlal)
ouLcomes and consequences of cllmaLe change. Cn numerous occaslons durlng Lhe lnLervlews
and focus group dlscusslons references were made Lo loss of groundcover, Lhe early melLlng of
Lhe snow on mounLaln peaks durlng Lhe warmer monLhs, danger of floods due Lo unseasonal
and excesslve raln and/or snow melL, loss of ground cover, and a lowerlng of ground waLer
resulLlng ln dlgglng ever deeper wells for waLer. More lmporLanLly, Lhe vasL ma[orlLy of Lhose
engaged for Lhls research polnLed Lo Lhe urgency of Lhe slLuaLlon and Lhe need Lo allevlaLe
www.appro.org.af 27
lmmedlaLe needs whlle plannlng for Lhe longer Lerm. 1he general senLlmenL, however, ls one of
despalr and lack of confldence ln Lhe exlsLlng lnsLlLuLlonal arrangemenLs Lo overcome Lhese
challenges.

8y far Lhe maln Lrlgger for food lnsecurlLy ls Lhe unpredlcLablllLy of weaLher paLLerns such as low
or unseasonal preclplLaLlon. Cne cannoL aLLrlbuLe all Lhe flucLuaLlons ln weaLher paLLerns Lo
cllmaLe change, however. Clven Lhe mosLly arld geography of AfghanlsLan, llvlng wlLh cllmaLlc
flucLuaLlons and waLer scarclLy ls very much a cenLral feaLure of exlsLence. ln Lhe evenL of acuLe
weaLher change, Lhe chaln of evenLs LhaL seLs ln ls one of food lnsufflclency for domesLlc
consumpLlon, absence of surplus produce Lo generaLe household lncome and Lhus an lnablllLy Lo
purchase foodsLuffs whlch, by all accounLs, are wldely avallable Lhough lnaccesslble for Lhe cash
sLrapped poorer rural households. lf Lhe pro[ecLlons abouL Lhe severlLy or reallLy of cllmaLe
change are Lrue, lL ls very llkely LhaL LhaL cumulaLlve lmpacL of cllmaLe change wlll undermlne
llvellhood and food securlLy ln vasL swaLhes of Lhe rural populaLlon.

1he maln sources of lncome for rural households are selllng excess agrlculLural produce, selllng
oLhers' excess produce for a small margln, share cropplng, maklng handcrafLs, or underLaklng
casual work ln larger clLles or nelghborlng counLrles. 1he rural households aL Lhe sLudy slLes
reporLed LhaL Lhey grew as much of Lhelr own food as posslble. 1he foodsLuffs needed buL noL
grown on Lhe farm are ofLen obLalned Lhrough barLerlng wlLh oLher farmers or Lhrough sales ln
local markeLs, Lhe proceeds of whlch are used Lo purchase addlLlonal food lLems. lf Lhe famllles
have noL had excess produce Lo sell or sLore for own consumpLlon durlng Lhe wlnLer monLhs,
male famlly members ofLen mlgraLe for seasonal work. 1he only oLher source of lncome, aparL
from selllng own produce and casual / seasonal labour ls remlLLances senL by famlly members
who have moved away permanenLly Lo clLles nearby or Lo oLher counLrles. Powever, ouL-
mlgraLlon does noL always resulL ln addlLlonal lncome for Lhe famlly. Also, Lhe more permanenL
moves away from Lhe farmlands almosL always resulL ln loss of on-farm producLlve capaclLy and
land abandonmenL, someLlmes beyond reclalm wlLhouL exLernal asslsLance.

ln Lhe evenL LhaL Lhree key feaLures of cllmaLe change (droughLs, unseasonal preclplLaLlon, and
slgnlflcanL LemperaLure changes accompanled wlLh hlgh wlnds) perslsL, Lhere ls llkely Lo be
lrreverslble damage Lo communlLles LhaL rely on agrlculLure as Lhe maln source of food and
lncome. CllmaLe change-relaLed lmpacLs Lend Lo seL ln moLlon processes LhaL ulLlmaLely break
down soclal sLrucLures:
lorced mlgraLlon of able-bodled rural household members ln search of work ofLen resulLs ln
loss of human caplLal and poLenLlally creaLes new soclal problems such as drug addlcLlon,
whlch affllcLs many rural young men who go Lo lran for seasonal or longer Lerm casual labor,
for example.
Loss of naLural caplLal such as producLlve land and anlmals and selllng off household asseLs Lo
purchase food ulLlmaLely dlsplaces Lhe affecLed household as all Lles Lo land and Lhe means
Lo work Lhe land are losL.
1he sysLem of muLual ald LhaL characLerlzes and blnds LogeLher rural communlLy households
Lhe world over, and acLs as a deLerrenL Lo Lemporary hardshlps, ls weakened and ulLlmaLely
desLroyed wlLh perslsLenL hardshlp, loss of land, and loss of asseLs and lncome.
lrreverslble change occurs ln facLors of producLlon, parLlcularly land whlch ofLen Lakes up Lo 3
or 6 years of Llmely raln and non-exLreme LemperaLures Lo reLurn Lo full producLlon afLer one
year of droughL.
lndeflnlLe dependency on lnLernaLlonal humanlLarlan ald as Lhe sole source of llvellhood.
www.appro.org.af 28

ln AfghanlsLan, as ln mosL oLher places, Lhe mosL sLable soclal lnsLlLuLlon ls Lhe famlly. Lvldence
from Lhe sLudy slLes suggesLs LhaL even LlghLly knlL famllles are dlslnLegraLlng due Lo perslsLenL
changes ln weaLher paLLerns, causlng a breakdown of Lhe llnk beLween llvellhoods and
agrlculLure.

Many rural communlLles have had Lo cope wlLh perslsLenL food lnsecurlLy for many decades
beyond Lhe lasL 30 or so years of confllcL. 1he hunger-sLrlcken rural communlLles are focused
mosLly on meeLlng lmmedlaLe food needs. 1here have been, for example, a number of cases of
lllness due Lo Lhe consumpLlon of ald agency-provlded geneLlcally modlfled seeds by desperaLe
farmlng households who Lhen became lll due Lo Lhe chemlcal composlLlon of Lhe seeds. 1hese
cases polnL Lo Lhe urgency of food rellef buL also ralse a number of concerns abouL Lhe
susLalnablllLy of lndeflnlLe food provlslon Lhrough humanlLarlan ald, creaLlng ald dependency
among Lhe reclplenLs of food ald, and poLenLlally creaLlng addlLlonal dlsrupLlon ln anclenL
ecosysLems by lnLroduclng CMCs.

1he perslsLenL food producLlon crlsls ln AfghanlsLan calls for a more coordlnaLed and sysLemaLlc
approach Lo agrlculLural asslsLance and developmenL. ln plans Lo allevlaLe adverse cllmaLe
change-relaLed lmpacLs on rural communlLles, Lhere ls a need Lo Lake accounL of Lhe Llme
needed for mosL of Lhe new agrlculLural producLlon meLhods Lo become esLabllshed. 1o
lllusLraLe, Lhe esLabllshmenL of saffron, a LradlLlonally recognlzed and ecologlcally sulLable crop,
has Laken over flfLeen years of Llreless work by uACAA8 and lCA8uA Lo show slgns of becomlng
esLabllshed. 1he lengLh of Llme requlred for Lhe lesser-known or new crops Lo become
esLabllshed ls llkely Lo be much longer.

1here ls ongolng, and ln many places, urgenL need for humanlLarlan ald. Powever, many of Lhe
key lnformanLs polnLed ouL LhaL ald alone cannoL provlde long-Lerm soluLlons and LhaL
humanlLarlan asslsLance had Lo be a parL of a much larger and more lnLegraLed program of
reconsLrucLlon.

A number of lnLervlewees and focus group parLlclpanLs from Lhe Lhree sLudy slLes suggesLed
LhaL Lhere was a need for creaLlng lndusLrlal parks Lo provlde lncome sources oLher Lhan
agrlculLure for Lhe local populaLlons. 8egardless of wheLher or noL Lhls ls a pracLlcal soluLlon, Lhe
suggesLlon does polnL Lo a loss of confldence ln farmlng as a means Lo generaLe a longer Lerm
llvellhood.

1he recommendaLlons LhaL follow are based on responses lnvlLed from Lhe key lnformanLs and
focus group parLlclpanLs.
A'0.$$'*,%&#.*6
uesplLe Lhe numerous challenges confronLed by lnLernaLlonal developmenL organlzaLlons ln
AfghanlsLan, Lhere ls an urgenL need for longer Lerm developmenL programmlng parLlcularly lf
cllmaLe change relaLed concerns are Lo be a feaLure ln developmenL plannlng. 1hls should
lnclude programs on foresLry and foresL expanslon such as Lhose lnlLlaLed by ClZ ln akLla
wlLh longer Lerm beneflLs for Lhe communlLles (kl-k2).

www.appro.org.af 29
rogrammlng ln agrlculLure by lnLernaLlonal organlzaLlons should be sub[ecL Lo assessmenL
for longer Lerm blologlcal susLalnablllLy lmpacLs parLlcularly glven Lhe wldespread, and
unconLrolled, lnLroducLlon of geneLlcally modlfled organlsms (CMCs) by numerous
developmenL ald organlzaLlons. A naLlonal or lnLernaLlonal body needs Lo be seL up Lo
monlLor Lhe longer Lerm lmpacL of lnLroduclng CMCs ln AfghanlsLan.

Modern farmlng Lechnlques such as row seedlng and drlp waLerlng along Lhe llnes belng
plloLed by MLuA, for example, need Lo be prlorlLlzed and lmplemenLed.

WaLer conservaLlon and harvesLlng Lechnlques based on LradlLlonal knowledge and
consLrucLlon meLhods, raLher Lhan large lnvesLmenLs ln caplLal equlpmenL and lnfrasLrucLure,
need Lo be lnLenslfled Lhrough baslc Lechnology Lransfer and exLenslon work by agrlculLural
ald agencles.

1here ls room for bulldlng addlLlonal mllk collecLlon or yogurL maklng operaLlons ln areas
where farmers conLlnue Lo keep llvesLock. LfforLs Lo bulld Lhese faclllLles need Lo be
lnLenslfled. 1here ls also much room for addlLlonal sLorage spaces for excess agrlculLural
produce Lo allevlaLe food scarclLy durlng wlnLer monLhs.

A mlnlmum dleLary requlremenL needs Lo be deflned for rural communlLles Lo ensure
adequaLe and sufflclenL calorle lnLake, parLlcularly by Lhe young, Lhrough fuLure food ald
pro[ecLs.

More plans need Lo be devlsed Lo rehablllLaLe foresLs and develop a sense of ownershlp /
sLewardshlp Loward naLural resources, reconsLrucL Lhe lrrlgaLlon channels, and Lransfer
knowledge and Lechnology Lo lncrease efflclency and ouLpuL ln agrlculLural producLlon.

lnnovaLlve and labor-lnLenslve meLhods need Lo be adopLed for waLer harvesLlng. 1he vasL
ma[orlLy of Lhose lnLervlewed for Lhls sLudy express exasperaLlon aL how much waLer ls losL as
run-off and how useful Lhls waLer could be ln meeLlng Lhelr farmlng and oLher needs.

Many areas wlLh advanclng deserLs and sandsLorms need Lo be managed so as Lo conLrol
furLher loss of currenLly producLlve land. lnLroducLlon of droughL reslsLanL LradlLlonal crops
such as almonds and plsLachlos Lo areas sufferlng from perslsLenL droughL or reduced annual
ralnfall should be an lnLegraLed parL of Lhe more elaboraLe program of adapLaLlon Lo cllmaLe
change.

1he creaLlon of waLer and land proLecLlon assoclaLlons and lnLenslfled lnLroducLlon of baslc
agrlculLural exLenslon work and Lechnology Lransfer have proven effecLlve ln oLher conLexLs.
Slmllar programmlng ln AfghanlsLan wlll need Lo be cognlzanL of Lhe felL needs of Lhe
communlLles and conslsLenL wlLh Lhe local (soclal, culLural, ecologlcal) conLexL.

WlLh lncreased or lmproved agrlculLural producLlon alone, one cannoL assume equlLable
dlsLrlbuLlon and adequaLe and sufflclenL food consumpLlon. lnLegraLed and sysLemlc
programmlng on food securlLy wlll need Lo slmulLaneously Lackle food producLlon,
dlsLrlbuLlon, and consumpLlon.

www.appro.org.af 30
1he recenL lnLernaLlonal lnLeresL ln cllmaLe change-relaLed lssues, regardless of wheLher or
noL cllmaLe change ls a sclenLlflcally esLabllshed facL, glve leglLlmacy Lo provlde new
opporLunlLles for lnnovaLlve programmlng on food securlLy and lmprovlng rural llvellhoods.
Such programmlng should be deslgned ln full recognlLlon of locallzed conLexLs, paylng
aLLenLlon Lo Lhe dlverse needs of dlfferenLlaLed populaLlons based on power relaLlons, land
ownershlp, and eLhnlc and gender lssues.

luLure lnLervenLlons ln agrlculLure ln AfghanlsLan should adopL lnLegraLlve approaches Lo
deslgn programs capable of slmulLaneously addresslng markeL lssues
33
and Lhe reclplenLs'
enLlLlemenLs and capablllLles.
34

-1&12' A'6'%20)
Comprehenslve and ln-depLh sLudles on cllmaLe change lmpacLs on llvellhoods ln AfghanlsLan
and how communlLles cope wlLh and adapL Lo Lhe relaLed sLresses are pracLlcally non-exlsLenL.
luLure research, as Lhe basls for lnformed programmlng, should aLLempL Lo address Lhe
followlng quesLlons:

Pow can mlcro-level sLudles, such as Lhe one aLLempLed for Lhls paper, conLrlbuLe Lo naLlonal
pollcles and lnLernaLlonal lnLervenLlon ln AfghanlsLan?
WhaL are Lhe mechanlsms Lhrough whlch cllmaLe change lnfllcLs damage Lo populaLlon
groups across dlfferenL geographlcal reglons and soclo-economlc seLLlngs ln AfghanlsLan?
Pow should poLenLlal cllmaLe change effecLs be besL lnLegraLed lnLo Lhe naLlonal and
communlLy level pollcles, programs and pro[ecLs almed aL reduclng food lnsecurlLy and
llvellhood vulnerablllLles?
WhaL successful adapLlve and coplng sLraLegles Lo cllmaLe change from oLher counLrles,
whlch are geographlcally and soclo-economlcally slmllar Lo AfghanlsLan, can be adapLed for
AfghanlsLan?
Pow can AfghanlsLan beneflL from globally devlsed cllmaLe change sLraLegles and
mechanlsms, such as Lhe kyoLo roLocol, glven lLs chronlc lnsLablllLy?


33
1hls noLlon of markeL" can be broken down furLher lnLo:
3/6#$2 :/2;,&': Where lndlvlduals sell Lhelr labour and are remuneraLed by wages
<.%/%",' :/2;,&': Comprlse a broad range of producLs and servlces offered by flnanclal lnLermedlarles,
such as banklng, credlL, savlngs, lnsurance, penslons, and morLgages
9##7' :/2;,&': Where producLlon lnpuLs and ouLpuLs are purchased and sold, and
=,2>.",' :/2;,&': Lncompass Lhe dellvery, purchase, or hlrlng-ln of servlces LhaL can enhance or
upgrade producLlve acLlvlLles.
34
LnLlLlemenLs can be deflned as Lhe bundle of resources LhaL an lndlvldual or group of lndlvlduals
commands for Lhe purpose of consumpLlon, producLlon, or exchange. CapablllLles can be deflned as Lhe
lndlvldual's or group's freedom and ablllLles Lo deploy Lhelr resources. See: Cammage, S., n. ulamond,
and M. ackman (2003). Lnhanclng Women's Access Lo MarkeLs: An Cvervlew of uonor rograms and
8esL racLlces" unlLed SLaLes Agency for lnLernaLlonal uevelopmenL - uSAlu. Avallable aL:
hLLp://www.oecd.org/daLaoecd/36/26/38432612.pdf
www.appro.org.af 31
4WW'*,#X7 !%6' /&1,3 /'"'0&#.*
1he selecLlon of Lhe dlsLrlcLs ln Lhree provlnces of 8alkh, PeraL, and nangarhar was carrled ouL
based Lhe followlng crlLerla:
1. Lack or shorLage of lrrlgaLlon sysLems and dependence of resldenLs on ralnfall for
agrlculLure and llvesLock husbandry
2. A hlsLory of belng affecLed by cllmaLe change, e. g. more frequenL and longer
droughLs, loss of vegeLaLlon cover, lower waLer Lable, lncreased number floods, and
adverse changes ln llvellhoods and food securlLy due cllmaLlc changes
3. oLenLlal securlLy rlsks for Lhe fleld research Leam

LxperL oplnlons on cholce of slLes were soughL from Lhree lndependenL sources - lAC senlor
offlclals and experLs, senlor offlclals from provlnclal dlrecLoraLes of Lhe MlnlsLry of AgrlculLure,
lrrlgaLlon, and LlvesLock, and A8C's local researchers famlllar wlLh Lhe geographlc areas of
lnLeresL.

ln Lhe remalnder of Lhls Appendlx, a general proflle ls provlded based on unlA (2006) for each
of Lhe provlnces where Lhe sLudy slLes were selecLed.


www.appro.org.af 32
:%";)
opulaLlon: 1,141,700
Languages: ashLo, uarl / larsl, uzbek, 1urkmen
Ad[usLed Age / Sex ulsLrlbuLlon:



LocaLed ln norLhern reglon and borderlng uzbeklsLan Lo Lhe norLh, Lhe provlnce has 13 ulsLrlcLs
wlLh Mazar e Sharlf Lhe provlnclal caplLal belng home Lo over 33 percenL of Lhe populaLlon.
8alkh ClLy has [usL under 9 percenL of Lhe populaLlon whlle Sholqara has under 8 percenL.

1here are rural schools ln 283 vlllages, prlmary schools ln 212, secondary schools ln 33, and hlgh
schools ln 18 vlllages ouL of a LoLal of 1,137 vlllages. PealLh cenLres and medlclne dlspensarles
exlsL ln 30 and 31 vlllages, respecLlvely. arLs of Lhe provlnce, parLlcularly around Mazar e Sharlf
and 8alkh ClLy, have anclenL seLLlemenL and rlch culLural hlsLorles wlLh llnks Lo uzbeklsLan,
1a[lklsLan, and lran.

www.appro.org.af 33
/#&' /'"'0&#.* Z:%";)\7 Whlle lnlLlally Lwo dlsLrlcLs of uawlaLabad and klshlndlh were proposed
by lAC senlor experLs as well as A8C's local conLacLs, klshlndlh was selecLed as lL besL meL
Lhe flrsL and second crlLerla. ln securlLy, klshlndlh was ranked lower Lhan uawlaLabad buL on
furLher lnvesLlgaLlon A8C's local conLacLs concluded LhaL securlLy was noL a ma[or concern.


www.appro.org.af 34
='2%&
opulaLlon: 1,183,000
Languages: ashLo, uarl / larsl
Ad[usLed Age / Sex ulsLrlbuLlon:



PeraL ls Lhe second largesL provlnce ln AghanlsLan (afLer Pelmand) ln Lerms of land area. lL ls
locaLed ln Lhe wesLern reglon and has borders wlLh 1urkmenlsLan and lran. 1he provlnce ls
dlvlded beLween 16 ulsLrlcLs wlLh PeraL ClLy belng home Lo 23 percenL of Lhe populaLlon. 1he
mosL populous dlsLrlcLs afLer PeraL ClLy are Ln[ll (13 percenL) and Shlndand (11 percenL). 1here
are rural schools ln 648 vlllages, prlmary schools ln 411, secondary schools ln 129, and hlgh
schools ln 38 vlllages ouL of a LoLal of 3,109 vlllages. PealLh cenLres and medlclne dlspensarles
exlsL ln 37 and 100 vlllages, respecLlvely.

PeraL's populaLlon has a level of educaLlon hlgher Lhan Lhe naLlonal average. 1he economy ls
dlverse by Afghan sLandards wlLh a slgnlflcanL elemenL of lndusLrlallzed producLlon.
1radlLlonally, Lhe ClLy of PeraL has been known Lo have a hlgher Lhan average level of
parLlclpaLlon by Lhe general populace ln clvlc affalrs. 1hls ls manlfesLed ln a pleLhora of clvll
socleLy organlzaLlons ln Lhe provlnce, parLlcularly ln PeraL ClLy.ln addlLlon, Lhe provlnce beneflLs
from lLs geographlcal locaLlon and relaLlve auLonomy Lo collecL and keep cusLoms fees on Lrade
beLween AfghanlsLan and Lhe nelghbourlng 1urkmenlsLan and lran.


www.appro.org.af 33
/#&' /'"'0&#.* Z='2%&\7 1wo dlsLrlcLs ln PeraL were recommended by agrlculLure experLs from
Lhe PeraL ulrecLoraLe of AgrlculLure, lrrlgaLlon and LlvesLock, Lhe laculLy of AgrlculLure of PeraL
unlverslLy, and A8C's local conLacLs. 8oLh kohsan and kushk dlsLrlcLs meL Lhe crlLerla for Lhe
sLudy based on avallable lnformaLlon aL Lhe Llme. A8C's local research Leam chose kushk
dlsLrlcL afLer collecLlng furLher lnformaLlon abouL poLenLlal vlllages sulLable for Lhls research


www.appro.org.af 36
>%*+%2)%2
opulaLlon: 1,336,300
Languages: ashLo
Ad[usLed Age / Sex ulsLrlbuLlon:



nangarhar ls one of Lhe larger provlnces boLh ln Lerms of area and populaLlon. 1he provlnce ls
dlvlded beLween 22 ulsLrlcLs wlLh Lhe cenLral dlsLrlcLs of !alalabad, 8ehsud, khugyanl, Achln,
Surkh 8ud, and 8aLl koL belng home Lo around 32 percenL of Lhe populaLlon. 1here are rural
schools ln 61 vlllages, prlmary schools ln 122, secondary schools ln 63, and hlgh schools ln 41
vlllages ouL of a LoLal of 1,400 vlllages. PealLh cenLres and medlclne dlspensarles exlsL ln 73 and
142 vlllages, respecLlvely. Compared Lo oLher provlnces, nangarhar has a hlgher Lhan average
percenLage of Lhe populaLlon wlLh access Lo schools and medlcal servlces.

Close proxlmlLy Lo eshawar ln aklsLan has had a poslLlve effecL on Lhe economlc and soclal llfe
of Lhe nangarhar provlnce as a whole. 1here are very sLrong Lrade and culLural llnks wlLh
aklsLan. nangarhar also has a hlgher Lhan average raLe of llLeracy.

www.appro.org.af 37
/#&' /'"'0&#.* Z>%*+%2)%2\7 Surkh 8od dlsLrlcL was proposed as Lhe besL slLe ln nangarhar by all
Lhree sources consulLed. CLher dlsLrlcLs proposed were Achln and Shlnwar whlch are locaLed
furLher ln Lhe souLh-easL and Lhus noL as secure as Surkh 8od.