Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 7

CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS IMPACT ON BANGLADESH

Climate change is the variation in global or regional climates over time.


It reflects changes in the variability or average state of the atmosphere over time scales ranging from decades to
millions of years.
Weather is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere in a region, and its short-term (minutes to weeks) variation
whereas Climate is defined as statistical weather information that describes the variation of weather at a given
place for a specified interval. They are both used interchangeably sometimes but differ in their measure of time,
and trends that affect them.
Weather is the combination of temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility, and wind. In popular
usage, climate represents the synthesis of weather; more formally it is the weather of a locality averaged over some
period (usually 30 years) plus statistics of weather extremes.




CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Green house gases like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased).
The global increase of carbon dioxide is due to the use of land and fossil fuel,
Increase of methane and nitrous oxide are due to agriculture
Rising concentration of the green house gases in the atmosphere are causing global climate change

Climate Change Impacts
Cyclone/storm surge: increased frequency, intensity, increasing salinity
Floods: increased frequency, magnitudes
Droughts: Spreading over time and space
Erratic rainfall: Intensive rain in short time
Temperature: extremes increasing
Riverbank and coastal erosion: increasing
Water logging and permanent inundation due to Sea Level Rise (SLR)
Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet ;Antarctic Ice Sheet Glaciers and ice caps ; Expansion of heated (warm) sea
water


Definition: Climate
Describes the average conditions expected at a
specific place at a given time. A region's
climate is generated by the climate system,
which has five components: atmosphere,
hydrosphere, cryosphere, land surface, and
biosphere.
Weather
Describes the atmospheric conditions at a
specific place at a specific point in time.
Weather generally refers to day-to-day
temperature and precipitation activity
Components
:
Climate may include precipitation,
temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind
velocity, phenomena such as fog, frost, and
hail storms over a long period of time.
Weather includes sunshine, rain,cloud cover,
winds, hail, snow, sleet, freezing rain,
flooding,blizzards, ice storms, thunderstorms,
steady rains from a cold front or warm front,
excessive heat, heat waves and more
Forecast: By aggregates of weather statistics over
periods of 30 years
By collecting meteorological data, like air
temperature, pressure, humidity, solar
radiation, wind speeds and direction etc.
Determining
factors:
Aggregating weather statistics over periods of
30 years ("climate normals").
Real-time measurements of atmospheric
pressure, temperature, wind speed and
direction, humidity, precipitation, cloud
cover, and other variables
Time period: Measured over a long period Measured for short term
Md. Aminul Hoque
Training Specialist
NAEM, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Climate Change Threats to Crop Agriculture
Climate change will bring major change in reference growing periods, necessitating restructuring of crops
and cropping pattern.
Crop modeler/world Bank predict 7.4% loss of annual rice production.
Temperature increase will drastically affect wheat area and productivity- decrease of 400 kg /ha for 1
o
c
increase in tem.

Health, Nutritional & Agricultural Challenges
Arsenic contamination poses major threat to health;
Increased malnutrition among the poor contribute to the spread of communicable and non-communicable
diseases;
Increased incidence of different degenerative diseases due to salinity intrusion;


Direct effects of temperature rise
Extreme high temperatures increase the number of people who die/day
People with heart problems are more vulnerable because one's cardiovascular system must work harder to
keep the body cool during hot weather
There will be problems of heat exhaustion
Respiratory problems will increase
Due to hazards like floods will result in an increase in enteric infections like cholera
Ozone damages lung tissues and causes problems for people with asthma and other lung diseases.

Mitigation and Adaptation
Adaptation involves developing ways to protect people and places by reducing their vulnerability to climate
impacts
Mitigation involves attempts to slow the process of global climate change by lowering the level of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
Examples include such mechanisms as planting trees that absorb carbon dioxide from the air and store it in
the soil or in their trunks and roots
Expansion of the areas of potential transmission of malaria and dengue fever (medium-to-high confidence);
roughly 300 million more people at risk of malaria

Ecosystem Impacts
Coral death from exposure to 3-4 C higher seasonal maximum sea-surface temperatures for 6 months or
more
Substantial reduction in glacier and ice-cap volume; tropical glaciers particularly vulnerable to elimination
Loss of unique vegetation systems and their endemic species (e.g. vegetation of Cape region of South Africa
and some cloud forests)
Extensive reduction in Arctic summer sea-ice extent with benefits for shipping but adverse effects on sea-
ice dependent animals (e.g. polar bears, seals, walrus)
Coastal wetland loss from sea level rise (up to 10% globally for 20 cm rise, higher percentages in some
areas)
Increased disturbances of ecosystems by fire and insect pests
Increase net primary productivity of many mid- and high-latitude forests Extinction of some critically-
endangered and endangered

Climate Change and its Impacts on Bangladesh
These changes can be caused by processes internal to the Earth, external forces (e.g. variations in sunlight intensity)
or, more recently, human activities
Bangladesh is a low-lying deltaic country in South Asia
formed by the GBM rivers and their respective tributaries.
Climate change poses a new threat to life and livelihood of the people of Bangladesh.

Long-term changes in temperature and precipitation may impact agriculture yields.
Changes in the onset, duration, and magnitude of the yearly monsoon season and consequent characteristics of
floods, droughts, and cyclones are critical to the performance of the sector.
Sea level rise may have severe implications on livelihood and productivity of coastal area through inundation and
salinity.
The country is extremely vulnerable to climate change because of its geophysical settings.
Flooding is an annual recurring event during monsoon and 80% of annual rainfall occurs during monsoon.
If rainfall increases due to climate change in the GBM basin that will create huge water flow through the rivers of
Bangladesh.
Monsoon flood will be more devastating due to increase of precipitation and sea level rise.

Why Bangladesh is vulnerable?
Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries because of its
geographic location;
flat and low-lying topography;
high population density;
reliance of many livelihoods on climate sensitive sectors, particularly agriculture and fisheries;
A meter rise of sea level would inundate
- a quarter of our landmass;
- displacing over 20 million people by 2050;
creating enormous humanitarian and political crisis beyond its national boundaries;
melting glaciers would further contribute to erratic weather pattern with prolonged monsoon floods and
droughts leaving 40 million people without livelihood;
With rising sea surface temperature, the intensity and the frequency of the storm would increase.
Intrusion of saline water would further damage our agriculture sector.
Such env. impacts would have far-reaching effects on our dev. gains on economic growth, food security,
health, water, ecosystems, and very existence as stable communities.
C.C. conditions costing our national economy 1% of the GDP annually for over the last decade.
Climate migrants from other parts of the country are already crowding our capitals for livelihood, placing
extra burden on the existing infrastructure of the cities and causing social turmoil.


Climate Change: Bangladesh Response
The cornerstones of all actions, international or domestic, are to ensure security of food, water, energy and,
livelihood (including health).
To manage the impacts, Bangladesh has taken a two-pronged approach.
-It has been vigorously participating in the international negotiations process for realisation of the goals
under the Bali Action Plan
-as well as preparing itself at home for necessary domestic action.

Bangladesh Position on Climate Change:
An effective response to climate change challenges must strike a balance between mitigation and
adaptation. Bangladesh urges all major emitters to collectively establish and implement a global target to
stabilize the atmosphere over the short, medium and long term.

Climate Change and Strategic Adaptation Provisions for Coastal Bangladesh
Global Temperature Change : 1860 - 2000



Observed rate of sea level rise and estimated contributions for different source

Causes
of
SEA
LEVEL
Rise

World wide per capita carbon dioxide emission


Over All Bangladesh




SLR in Bd. by year 2030, 2050, 2100













1.6
4
6
20
0.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
Y
e
a
r
l
y

p
e
r

c
a
p
i
t
a

C
O
2

e
m
i
s
s
i
o
n

i
n

T
o
n
Bangladesh
Developing
countries
World average
Industrial world
USA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Year 2030 Year 2050 Year 2100
Year
S
L
R

(
c
m
)
TAR/ NAPA SMRC
SLR trend in Bangladesh













Key Implications of CC in the Coastal Areas
All fundamental human rights will be severely affected
SLR will directly affect vast coastal area and flood plains of Bangladesh.
In case of static altitude of the coastal areas with stagnant delta development process
10 cm SLR 2020 inundate 2% of the country
25 cm SLR 2050 inundate 4 % of the country
1m SLR 2100 about 17 % of the country
Twenty million people, engaged in salt/ shrimp production, fishery/ agriculture, and other businesses will
be directly affected.
As a result of 1 metre rise in sea level, 29,846 sq. km. coastal area will be inundated; 14.8 million people will be
landless, and tens of thousands of people will be environmental refugees. Rice production will be drastically
reduced
Impacts on the Sundarbans
10 cm SLR will inundate 15% of the Sundarbans
25 cm SLR will inundate 40% of the Sundarbans
45 cm SLR will inundate 75% of the Sundarbans
60 cm SLR will inundate 100% of the Sundarbans
1 - M SLR will destroy Whole Sundarbans
Species like Sundari, main economic species in the Sundarbans, would be replaced by less valuable
Goran and Gewa.
Human habitation possible prevents inland migration.
Loss of the Sundarbans and other coastal wetlands would reduce breeding ground for many
estuarine fish, which could reduce their population.

Policy and Strategic Priorities
-- Adaptation
Capacity Development
Knowledge (education- understanding the issue, data/MIS, R&D, negotiation)
Institutional development
Policy and governance
Policies and Plans
Revision of NAPA
Develop country strategies
UNCLOS: De-limitation of Bangladesh boundary in the BoB
Landuse policy
Integrated land water management (integrated NRM and watershed Management)
Land Management
Land zoning
Facilitate delta development processes
Land reclamation
Risk Reduction
Cyclone/surge proof housing, shelters for livestock, infrastructures
Coastal green belt
Food Security, Agriculture and NRM
Scientific monitoring
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Hiron Point Char Changa Coxs Bazar
Station
m
m
/

y
r
Biotechnology
Appropriate technological innovation networking and dissemination

Agriculture/Fisheries/Forestry
Climate resilient agricultural (including fisheries and livestock) development
Aforestration/reforestation
Hydroponics
Regional and International co-operation
Negotiation
Knowledge networking
Trans boundary partnership programme
Programme
Demonstration projects/programmes in agriculture, fisheries, livestock, forestry
Integrated land/water/NRM programme

Research
New Technology
Mangrove afforestation
Salinity tolerant species
Floating agriculture

Salinity Tolerant Species
P. monodon is very sensitive to salinity
required salinity for max. growth is 15-25ppt
Indian White Shrimp (P. indicus)
can tolerate salinity up to 42 ppt
Western White Shrimp (P. vannamei)
can tolerate a wide range of salinity starting from 0.5 ppt to 45 ppt.
Mangrove afforestation
3 species (Heritiera fomes, Sonnerata apetala and Avicennia officinalis)
suitable for mangrove aforestation in the coastal zone of Bangladesh.
1200 Sq.Km. Mangrove afforestation succeed
Important habitat for shrimp fry
Effective for coastal protection

Cage and Pen Culture
Open water could be used for capture fisheries
Easy to observe, treatment and feed supply
Easy to harvest
Easy to relocate
However-
Relatively expensive
Bacterial disease of the fishes of the cage may be easily transmitted to the other parts of the water body

Polyculture
Fish-Shrimp or Shrimp-Crab cultivation is suitable for Bangladesh
Higher production
Low pollution
High fluctuation of salinity tolerant
Polyculture of Tiger Shrimp (P. monodon), Milkfish (Chanos chanos), and Mullet (Mugil cephalus) showed
higher harvest than shrimp monoculture
Mud crab (Scylla serrata) and Tiger Shrimp are good combination of polyculture
Pearl Culture
Potential sector
Natural pearl found in-
Chittagong
Coxs Bazar
Moheshkhali
St. Martins island
Pearl producing shells found in Khulna region too
Neglected sector by government
Capacity building
Disaster preparedness activities
Special weather forecasting
Local language
Participatory community fund
A participatory approach to coastal resource planning, inventory and zoning
Insurance
Agriculture
Crop
Fisheries
Boat
Land Accretion and Reclamation Potential
About 2 billion tons of sediments per annum from the upper catchments areas
Scope to accelerate and consolidation of accretion process
Land reclamation potential
Land Zoning
An indicative land zoning was done by ICZM and following 8 zones were identified:
Forest zone
Shrimp (brackish-water) zone,
Shrimp (Fresh-water) zone,
Saltshrimp zone,
Mangrove zone,
Urban and commercial zone (industrial, port, export-processing zones and ship breaking yards),
Tourism zone, and
Agricultural zone

Institutional agenda
Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI)
Should conduct research to develop salinity-tolerant rice species
Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council (BARC)
Research for other agricultural crops.
The Bangladesh Forest Research Institute (BFRI)
Identify salinity tolerant species of mangrove.
The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Ministry of Agriculture (MoA)
Should be involved to disseminate new species and their cultivation techniques.

Role of Government
Mainstream climate resilient development in policies, plans and financial allocations
Take initiatives for the adaptation of different sectors
Salinity tolerate species for agriculture and fisheries
Settlement policies for coastal areas: climate resilient settlement (building materials, design and
construction and)
Adequate cyclone shelter centre in the whole coastal areas
To develop community fund to meet climate change crisis
Consider active delta development process in infrastructure development
Rehabilitate degraded forests

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi