RUG 2013 - New Tools For Offshore QRA

New tool for Offshore QRA
Phast & Safeti User Conference 2013

Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.
Background
2
Over the years, DNV has developed a number of tools for safety analysis of
Offshore installations
Offshore Hazard and Risk Analysis Toolkit (OHRAT)
- First version released in 1992 in direct response to Piper Alpha disaster
- Joint industry project with numerous Operators, Consultants and EPCs
Neptune
- The OHRAT concept taken into Microsoft Windows environment (1999)
Spreadsheet models (e.g. SOQRATES) (2005+)
Phast also used for Offshore consequences
All these tools have their own respective benefits and drawbacks
As a result, in 2009 DNV started discussing a new tool to harness our Offshore
experience so far and build a new tool for the future
Welcome to Safeti Offshore - everything DNV knows about Offshore QRA
encapsulated within one, comprehensive tool
Safeti Offshore
A joint collaboration involving significant investment between:
- DNV Advisory Services, providing their Offshore QRA and domain experience
- DNV Software, delivering software engineering and mathematical modelling expertise
Design discussions during 2009-2010
Project and coding kick-off January 2011, starting with Proof of Concept
First internal release delivered Q1 2013, plus regular ongoing releases
Key project goals:
- Develop an integrated and uniform approach to Offshore QRA based upon international
standards such as ISO 17776 and NORSOK Z013
- Integration of separate QRA models within one common software tool
- Support risk management throughout the lifecycle of an installation from planning to
decommissioning
- Provision of a standardised tool building on the well-established Phast architecture
- Benefit from software economies of scale
- Develop a new, commercially successful software product
3
Merging of Tools and Competence
Safeti
Offshore
Leak
NEPTUNE /
SOQRATES
Other
Standalone
Tools
EXPRESS
Phast /
Phast Risk
New Models
EXPRESS
MODFIRE
New Developments and Features
Integrated
smoke
modelling
Time varying
discharge, with
safety systems
Subsea
releases
Choice of
ignition models
3D viewer
Confined
module fire
model
Detailed
impairment
estimation
Detailed
escalation
modelling
Escape and
Evacuation
modelling
5
Whats new in Safeti Offshore?
Safeti Offshore incorporates some significant new technology
Offshore asset hierarchy
Automatic release case generation (subject to user defined rules)
3-D graphical input and results viewer
Graphical Event Tree viewer
Powerful data input grid
New mathematical modelling, including:
- Improved discharge modelling, allowing for safety systems:
- Detection, isolation and blowdown
- Integration of DNV Express, a probabilistic model for module explosions
- New compartment fire model taking into account module geometry and flame development
- Subsea releases
- Escalation modelling
Plus everything else that Safeti contains
6
Leak
Location
IS1-G
1.000E-14
1.000E-13
1.000E-12
1.000E-11
1.000E-10
1.000E-09
1.000E-08
1.000E-07
1.000E-06
1.000E-05
1.000E-04
1.000E-03
1.000E-02
1.000E-01
1.000E+00
0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0 1200.0 1400.0 1600.0 1800.0 2000.0
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
Time [s]
Cumulative Probability of Ignition
Small (main)
Medium (main)
Lare (main)
Leak
Location
I S1-G!E"#l$%i$n &are'
1.000E-06
1.000E-05
1.000E-04
1.000E-03
1.000E-02
1.000E-01
1.000E+00
0.0000 0.2000 0.4000 0.6000 0.8000 1.0000 1.2000
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
(
g
i
v
e
n
I
g
n
i
t
i
o
n
)
Pressure [bar]
Aggregated Exceedance Probability vs Explosion verpressure
Small (main)
Medium (main)
Lare (main)
New probabilistic explosion model - EXPRESS
EXPRESS is used to calculate the following:
- Flammable cloud dispersion in source module (cloud volume)
- Detection, Ignition and Explosion probabilities
- Explosion Overpressure Exceedance Curves (at each defined target)
7
MODFIRE: 3D Fire Modelling
Bridges the gap between existing Phast
fire models and CFD
Builds upon the existing Phast fire
models by combining them in new ways
Fires begin in the source module
Fires allowed to develop and escalate
beyond the source module:
- Overall volume of the flame is conserved
and spread over the platform in
accordance with layout and geometry
Also handles scenario where fire walls
are damaged or removed by initial
explosion prior to fire
8
Safeti Offshore Basic Input Workflow
Assets tab:
Define Installation Areas
Define Safety Barriers, Walls and Decks
Define Escape Routes
Define Structural Elements
Process Tab:
Define Isolatable Sections
Define Equipment items
Define Process Case options
Define Risers & Pipelines
Define Wellgroups
Generate Leak Locations (Scenarios)
and Cases (Safety Systems) for each
section
Add User Defined Scenarios
Assign Explosion Targets &
Vulnerabilities
Define other data:
Materials
Weathers
Worker population
Then perform the calculations:
Inventory volume
Leak frequencies
Consequences (Explosion & Fire)
Risk
Review results and perform sensitivity
analysis
9
Safeti Offshore at a glance
10
RIBBON BAR
GRID
ASSET
HIERARCHY
TABS
3D VIEWER
11
Lets unpack this a bit more...
Ribbon Bar
The Ribbon bar
Key interface area in terms of running
calculations and viewing results
- Includes grid search facility
Allows for staged, sequential model
runs
- Case definition (Volume, frequency,
screening), Consequence (TVDI,
EXPRESS) and Risk
Event trees can be visualized and
drilled down into
Results (risk and consequence) can
be viewed from the 3D viewer
12
Running Steps
13
Data Input
(Asset, Process, Weather,
Risk, Material, Parameters)
Volume & Frequency
(Process Tab)
Generate Process
Leak Locations &
Cases
(Right Click on Process Tab)
Volume & Frequency &
Screening
(Model Tab)
Define Express Targets
& Additional Input
(Model tab)
Discharge
TVDI
(Model Tab)
EXPRESS Explosion
(Model Tab)
Consequence
Dispersion
(Model Tab)
Risk
(Model Tab)
More
details later
Asset Hierarchy
Key element of the tool
This is where the structure/outline of facility is defined
Built in a modular fashion using key objects
- Installation
- Platform
- Areas
- Walls
- Decks
- Structural elements
- Escape routes
Key aspect of the tools spatial awareness
- Every object has a location
- Key characteristics of objects are also defined (notably resilience to impacts)
- For example, fire and blast rating for walls and decks (Vulnerability)
Also allows for three release types/locations Topsides, Above sea, Subsea
14
Object definition Walls and Decks
15
Object definition - Areas
16
Object definition Escape Routes
17
Graphical Illustration of the above
18
Deck
(Upper face)
Area
(cuboid)
Wall
(Outer face)
Wall
(Inner face)
Escape Route
Safeti Offshore - Release Locations
19
Subsea
Above sea
Inside
3D Viewer(facilities)
Safeti Offshore provides comprehensive 3D view of platform and results
Key for QA, communication and visualisation of results
20
Sea
Sea Bed
21
22
23
24
3D Viewer(Consequence Results)
25
Explosion
overpressure
radii
Fire size &
flame effects
Smoke and
toxic effects
3D Viewer(Risk Results)
The 3D viewer also allows for risk
results to be viewed for the object
selected
Results available include
- PLL
- Escalation
- Impairment
- Personnel
- Overpressure
Results are output to a results file
- Excel or Access
26
Tabs
Safeti Offshore includes 10 tabs
Titles are largely self-explanatory, details not so much
Provide a structured systematic way to organize the data and thus run a QRA
We shall examine two key tabs
Process tab
Risk Tab
27
Process Tab
Process tab
- Define Isolatable sections and parts count
- Define sizes to consider Small, Medium
or Large
- Model as release rate or hole size
- Availability of safety systems (Isolation and
Blowdown)
- Frequency analysis settings (Full, Limited,
Zero pressure etc.)
Automatic case generation of models to
Models tab
28
Risk Tab
Risk tab
Where all risk data is defined
- Populations
- Ignition
- Vulnerabilities
- Run rows etc.
Failure of barriers also considered
- Pressure reduction factor on failure
- Deluge parameters
29
Overview of Typical Results (1)
Results related to frequency, consequence and risk results
Frequency results
- Generally frequencies per year for the specific end events
- Grouped frequencies per year according to high-level hazard categories
- Grouped frequencies by area of the platform
Consequence results
- Discharge, release rate data (by event scenario and safety system) including flow rate,
duration, time varying
- Explosion results: EXPRESS / DAL detailed results; overpressure / impact at targets;
escalation result
- Fire results: fire and radiation extent; impact at targets; escalation result
- Toxic results: dispersion extent; impact at targets
- Smoke results: dispersion extent; impact at targets
30
Risk Results
Detailed risk results produced for each potential outcome
- IR, IRPA, PLL, Escalation, Impairment, Exceedance Curves (explosion, flammable)
- Ignition probabilities (TDIIM) and many more
Work on-going to develop more sophisticated reporting mechanisms
31
Ongoing Risk Consultancy projects with Safeti Offshore
DNV now gaining invaluable experience applying Safeti offshore to live projects
One significant project currently underway
32
Looking forwards
Immediate future:
- Extensive -Testing program, based on real reference projects
- Market planning and communication (e.g. DNV Software User Conferences)
Medium-term:
- Further consultancy projects
- Parallel deployment of Software and Advisory Services to our existing customers
Longer-term:
- Ongoing feature development & improvement
- Enhanced user friendliness
- Improved calculation runtimes
- Release of new version(s)
- Full commercialisation and rollout to broader customer base
Do you have specific needs for your own Offshore QRA analysis?
- Please come and talk to us we can add
- New and alternative calculation models
- Specific features and customisations
33
Safeguarding life, property
and the environment
www.dnv.com
34

RUG 2013 - New Tools For Offshore QRA

Transféré par

Informations du document

Titre original

Copyright

Formats disponibles

Partager ce document

Partager ou intégrer le document

Options de partage

Avez-vous trouvé ce document utile ?

Ce contenu est-il inapproprié ?

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

RUG 2013 - New Tools For Offshore QRA

Transféré par

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

New tool for Offshore QRA

Phast & Safeti User Conference 2013

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi