Version date: 1/20/11

ENGR 2600 Modeling and Analysis of Uncertainty Spring 2011

Course goals: To improve your effectiveness as an engineer by showing you how to account for risk and
uncertainty in analysis and design. To achieve this, we will learn how to create (through experimental
design), describe (using statistical theory), and model (using probability theory) engineering data and to
analyze it using statistical software.

Learning outcomes: You should be able to accomplish the following upon completion of MAU:
Summarize data both numerically and graphically
Compute the probability of elementary and compound events
Fit and use common discrete and continuous probability models
Design, program and analyze Monte Carlo simulations of complex stochastic systems
Make statistical inference about means in the form of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests
Use control charts to test the stability of manufacturing and service processes
Use regression analysis to detect and estimate associations between variables

Course style: To get the most out of MAU, prepare for and then be active in the class. Preparing for class
means reading the text and working problems beforehand. Plan to devote about 12+ hours per week to
MAU. Bring your laptop computer to each class unless instructed otherwise.

The MAU Team:
Prof. Thomas R. Willemain willet@rpi.edu CII 5207 x6622 (coordinator)
Prof. Bimal K. Malaviya malavb@rpi.edu JEC 5050 x8578
Sandeep Gowdagiri gowdas@rpi.edu JEC 2001
Liang Han hanl6@rpi.edu JEC 2001
Blake Hargis hargib@rpi.edu CII 3117
Lei Xu xul2@rpi.edu JEC 2001
Xunyuan Zhang zhangx11@rpi.edu JEC 2001

Office Hours: Office hours will be posted inside the spreadsheet that lists the MAU class schedule; this
spreadsheet is in the Administration folder of the class web site. One key to success in MAU is to make
frequent use of office hours. Any student from any section can attend any office hour.

Text: Jay L. Devore. Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences. 7
th
ed. Thompson. 2008.

Software: Minitab Version 14 Student Edition. The software is bundled with your textbook at the RPI
Bookstore, or you can purchase it from Minitab. We will use Minitab almost all the time, so assume you
need it unless explicitly told otherwise.

Non-Text Resources:

The MAU web page is www.rpi.edu/~willet/engr2600. The syllabus, office hour schedules,
project assignments, datasets, and other MAU-related materials will be posted there. There will
inevitably be revisions, so check back frequently.
Download the textbooks datasets and the additional ("TRW") datasets from the web site. Note that the
TRW datasets tend to be incremented during the term, so check back often, especially before exams.

Attendance Policy: We expect prompt attendance at all classes and the traditional 3 (or so) hours of
preparation outside of class for every hour in class. (Note: please appreciate that this means you should
Version date: 1/20/11
budget an average of 12+ hours per week for MAU.) Please bring your laptop computer to every class. We
will demonstrate Minitab in class, but the best way to learn any software is to play with it outside of class
until you know it. Many RPI students have developed the bad habits of surfing the web or IM-ing during
class. Please do not do these things. Instead, focus your attention on the subject matter. Finally, be prepared
to take the final exam whenever it is offered. For safety, the syllabus lists it on the last possible date. Please
do not try to get the exam changed for non-academic reasons, e.g., cheap fares for earlier flights. Note that
excused class absences are available only from the Student Experience Office (x8022, se@rpi.edu).

Grading policy: We will compute your grade using these weights: microquizzes = 5% (we will drop the
worst 3), projects = 5 @ 5% = 25%; in-class exams = 3 @15% = 45%; cumulative final exam = 25%. Your
midterm status can be determined by asking during office hours.

If you think we have misgraded your work, you can appeal, but you must submit a written request to your
section instructor within one week of receiving the grade. Put your appeal in a brief note and attach the
exam or project report in question. Late appeals or verbal appeals will not be considered.

Microquizzes: These are brief quizzes given frequently in class. They focus attention on key topics and
help you keep up with the flow of ideas. This course is not suited to last-minute cramming.
Homework: Suggested problems for each class are listed in the class schedule. Homework will not be
graded, but we encourage discussion of homework problems in office hours. Doing the homework
problems is strongly recommended.
Projects: You must do the projects in teams of 2-4 people from your own section ( work will not be
accepted from teams of more than 4; solo work will carry a 10% penalty; late work will be penalized
10% per day or fraction of a day). You do not have to keep the same partner(s) for every project. You
may ask questions of anyone, but you must do the work yourselves, so you cannot receive anything but
advice from anybody outside your group. Some projects may have to be pre-approved by the MAU
team. Advice for meeting the deadlines: watch out for last-minute problems with printers, schedule team
meetings in advance, be sure to proofread your reports, and make sure everyone in the group signs the
cover page.
Exams: There will be 3 in-class exams and a cumulative final exam. All exams will be open-book/open-
notes/open-computer. Bring your laptop computer; be sure it is in working order and that you have all
Minitab, Devore and TRW datasets installed.

Academic integrity: We will ask you to both take responsibility for your own work and also to collaborate
with other students in carefully prescribed ways. Violations of academic integrity, as listed in the Rensselaer
Handbook of Student Rights and Responsibilities, merit an F in the course. Furthermore, we are obliged to
report all violations to the Dean of Students Office for possible additional disciplinary action.

Projects: Work on projects can be done with advice from anyone, but your team must perform all
calculations, experiments, and presentation of results. Here is a simple rule of thumb: You can receive
only verbal advice from people outside the group -- nothing in writing, no computer code or output, no
data. If you are uncertain about this policy, contact a professor. It is also a violation of academic
integrity to make no significant contribution to the intellectual work of any group project, i.e., to try to
receive credit for work done by your partner(s).
Exams: All work on exams must be solely your own. You may not share books, notes, calculators or
computers. You may not communicate with anyone during the exam. Cells phones and web connections
must be off.
Microquizzes: These work best if you do them yourself, but you are allowed to consult with others.