Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye offer a neoliberal critique of the realist worldview. Realists contend that the state is the dominant actor in World Politics. The authors point to the growing importance of nonsecur I t yr el ati ons.
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Keohane & Nye Realism and Complex Interdependence - Pp 49-58
Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye offer a neoliberal critique of the realist worldview. Realists contend that the state is the dominant actor in World Politics. The authors point to the growing importance of nonsecur I t yr el ati ons.
Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye offer a neoliberal critique of the realist worldview. Realists contend that the state is the dominant actor in World Politics. The authors point to the growing importance of nonsecur I t yr el ati ons.
Robert O.Keohane ondl osePh S. Nye In this classic work, Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye offer a neoliberal cri- tique of the realist worldview. They assert that in the post-Wot'ld War II era countri es have become more and more i ntertwi ned economi cal l y. The explosive growth in the size and number of transnational corporations has blurred state boundaries, rendering traditional realist assumptions about the centrality of the state questionable. Realists contend that the state is the dominant actor in world politics and that military force and violence are the primary means by which states achieve their goals. Keohane and Nye p ro p o s e an al t e r nat iv e ide al ty p e----c o mp I e x i nt e rde p e nde nc e-t hat e mp ha - sizes cooperation rather than conflict. While the authors caution that vio- lence and conflict have not disappeared, they point to the growing impor- t ance of non- secur i t y- r el at ed i ssues such as i nt er nat i onal monet ar y rel ati ons and gl obal envi ronmental concerns. To them the day-to-day affairs of states have more to do with promoting cooperative economic interactions than with military and security matters. One's assumptions about world politics profoundly affect what one sees and how one constructs theori es to expl ai n events. We bel i eve that the assumptions of political realists, whose theories dominated the postwar period, are often an inadequate basis for analyzing the politics of interde- pendence. The real i st assumpti ons about worl d pol i ti cs can be seen as defining an extreme set of conditions or ideal type. One could also imagine very different conditions. In this chapter, we shall construct another ideal Repri nt ed wi t h permi ssi on of t he publ i sher f rom Power and I nt erdependence: World Politics inTr"ansition,2d edition, by Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye rGlenview, IL: Pearson Education, Inc.). Copyright O 1989 by Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, pp. 23-25; 29-37. 49 50 Contendi ngYi ewsofl PE type, the opposite of realism. We call \t complex interdependence' After esiablishing ih" diff"."n"es between realism and complex interdependence, we shall argue that complex interdependence sometimes comes closer to reality than does realism. when it does, traditional explanations of change i n i ni ernati onal regi mes become questi onabl e and the search for new explanatory models becomes more urgent. ' For politlcal realists, international politics, like all other politics, is a struggle io. po*". but, unlike domestic politics, a struggle dominated by organlred violence. . . . Three assumptions are integral to the realist vision. Fiist, states as coherent units are the dominant actors in world politics. This is a double assumption: states are predominant; and they act as coherent units. Second, realists assume that force is a usable and effective instrument of policy. Other instruments may also be employed, but using or threaten- i ng force i s the most effecti ve means of wi el di ng power' Thi rd' partl y beiause of their second assumption, realists assume a hierarchy of issues in world politics, headed by questions of military security: the "high politics" of military security dominates the "low politics" of economic and social affairs. These realist assumptions define an ideal type of world politics. They allow us to imagine a world in which politics is continually characterized by active or potential conflict among states, with the use of force possible ai a.ry time. -Each state attempts to defend its territory and interests from real or perceived threats. Political integration among states is slight and lasts only as long as it serves the national interests of the most powerful states. Tiansnational actors either do not exist or are politically unimpor- tant. Only the adept exercise of force or the threat of force permits states to survive, and only while statesmen succeed in adjusting their interests' as in a well-functioning balance of power' is the system stable' Each of the realist assumptions can be challenged. If we challenge them all simultaneously, we can imagine a world in which actors other than stares participate directly in world politics, in which a clear hierarchy of issues does not exist, and in which force is an ineffective instrument of pol- icy. Under these conditions-which we call the characteristics of complex inierdependence-one would expect world politics to be very different than under realist conditions. The Characteri sti cs of Compl ex l nterdependence Complex interdependqnce has three main characteristics: 1. Mul t i pt e channel s connect soci et i es, i ncl udi ng: i nf or mal t i es between governmental elites as well as formal foreign office arrangements; i nformal ti es among nongovernmental el i tes (face-to-face and through telecommunications); and transnational organizations (such as multination- Robert O. Keohone &Joseph S. Nye 5 | al banks or corporations). These channels can be summarized as interstate, Iransgovernmental, and transnational relations. Interstate relations are the normal channels assumed by realists. Transgovernmental applies when we relax the realist assumption that states act coherently as units; transnational rpplies when we relax the assumption that states are the only units. 2. The agenda of interstate relationships consists of multiple issues that .rre not arranged in a clear or consistent hierarchy. This absence of'hierar- .-ht among isszes means, among other things, that military security does rot consistently dominate the agenda. Many issues arise from what used to :e considered domestic policy, and the distinction between domestic and :oreign issues becomes blurred. These issues are considered in several gov- :rnment departments (not j ust forei gn offi ces), and at several l evel s. Inadequate pol i cy coordi nati on on these i ssues i nvol ves si gni fi cant costs. Different issues generate different coalitions, both within governments and icross them, and involve different degrees of conflict. Politics does not stop i i the waters' edge. 3. Military force is not used by governments toward other governments .i ithin the region, or on the issues, when complex interdependence prevails. -: may, however, be important in these govemments'relations with govern- rents outsi de that regi on, or on other i ssues. Mi l i tary force coul d, for :rstance, be i rrel evant to resol vi ng di sagreements on economi c i ssues :rriong members of an alliance, yet at the same time be very important for ::at alliance's political and military relations with a rival bloc. For the for- :er relationships this condition of complex interdependence would be met; 'rr the latter, it would not. Tradi ti onal theori es of i nternati onal pol i ti cs i mpl i ci tl y or expl i ci tl y ::ny the accuracy of these three assumptions. Traditionalists are therefore ' :mpted al so to deny the rel evance of cri ti ci sms based on the compl ex :rerdependence ideal type. We believe, however, that our three conditions ::: fairly well approximated on some global issues of economic and eco- .,si cal i nterdependence and that they come cl ose to characteri zi ng the ::.tire relationship between some countries. One of our purposes here is to ::.x'e that contention. In fPower and Interdependence: World Politics in -' tnsi ti on we] exami ne compl ex i nterdependence i n oceans pol i cy and - rnetary policy and in the relationships of the United States to Canada and :-::tralia. In this chapter, however, we shall try to convince you to take .-:'e criticisms of traditional assumptions seriously. . . . The Pol i ti cal Processes of Compl ex l nterdependence --3 three main characteristics of complex interdependence give rise to dis- :tive political processes, which translate power resources into power as - :.trol of outcomes. As we argued earl i er, somethi ng i s usual l y l ost or 52 ContendingViewsoflpE added in the translation. Under condidor translation will be different than under l::|":"^T'Px interdependence the rions abour ourcomes wlrneed,";;;d",:,j'#:1fiff;:, and our predic_ I n t he real i sr worrd, . ri ur". t . . . i ri t y wi rt be t he domi nant goal of ;fi? :::ffJr? "rrect issues 'r'"i"'" '", directlv inuoru'J *i,h mlitary dinared to ,n'iruJl tt"lt:: Nonmilitary.probrems will not onry be subor_ imprications. ;;;i"31i;:lflJliffJ,' *il:',r'"i'' p"iiiil"-mlitary at least as much n *'. ruii'^i;::: i:i::' Ior rnstance, will be considered u, r- tn"i, f ;;;l;'r'ff":i"1';l',?ijl;Tfji"u'ion"io,'Lro;;J generary In a world of orricia,s,d;;;;Ti:nli"."H:lJl"l'Ji;,1,J,;::":::*":l:,^::;Hi: that must be pursued' rn the "or"rr* "t'" crear hierarct y or ir*"r, gout, ;JllJffi:lil::, and mav 'o, b; ;;; rerated. Each bureaucracy w'r mjseson,,,"",-*,,"#i.? jfl "Tr":ilHHi,;i:ffi *J*i,"ffiHJ; of policy is difficult.to,nuinruin.ilo;;"r, rransnarional actors will inrro_ d uce differen r goal s i nto uuri ;r' g;; ;;"r;; r, ""r. Linkage Strategies Goals will therefore vary by issue area unde so will the distribution or o";;;;'ilrcomplex interdependence, but rradirionar *af,i, .ro"u,", in ;; il#illi:XiH: Tt,H::T:1: ::d"ffLi,rl',fl #:[::l'ff Tffi ";J:::r.;l;*oi,i,on,,-o ;l*,ilffi'J;; ji:'*:g;'$"";'1"""1i'i'J'"1#'""1iff :':T:lf ": o n th eir, " J ;; ;,:"1iiT'i'",:':':lf, iiT, i::fl#H:ffi ;l l*ki ensure a congruence between the overat structure of military and economic il3ryifi:,HlT'i3:i#i::ffi 'n -' *" i,,u" u,"u ri",'i"",i. 0",,- _ Under complex interdependence, such occur. As mlitary rorce is a"uaru"o,,_il;;j,T:** il:j"T,ii-r:lr. i: more difficuh to use their overall o"-ir"""" a control outcomes on issues in which rhey are weak. And ri"* ii"'o#ibution of power resources in trade, shipping, or ol,_fo,"-;;;i;;;"rii'o'r," differenr, paterns of out_ ,"r"rT""J ,Tij;il,ff,ile political p-""G ".""i,*o, . "".v i.lni on".r", or we re rh e h i gh e s, ";;' ;i.ilrffi Ji 1'#i:llll,11i;,T ilIl l'#iff :,ll'g of power would not 'iutt", very much. The tinkages drawn from them ro military issues would ensure consistent dominance by the overalr strongest Robert O. Keohone &/oseph S. Nye 53 ' :' l res. But when mi ri tary-Jorce i s l argery i mmobi l i zed, strong states wi l l r rd rhat l i nkage i s l ess effecti ve. They may sti i l artempr suchl i nks, but i n e absence of a hi erarchy of i ssues, thei r success wi i l be probl emati c.. Dominant states may try to secure much the ,un-'"."rult by using over- ' " economi c power to affect resul ts on other i ssues. If onl y ".ono,ni . :tecti ves are at stake, they may succeed: money, after al l , i s fungi bl e. But ::' rnomi c obj ecti ves have pol i ti cal i mpri cati ons, and economi c l i nkage by l strong i s l i mi ted by domesti c, transnati onal , and transgovernmental --:ors who resist having their interests traded off. Furthermor-e. the interna- . nal actors may be di fferent on di fferent i ssues, and the i nternatronar ::ani zati ons i n whi ch negoti ati ons take prace are often qui te separate. --.-rs i t i s di ffi cul t, for exampl e, to i magi ne a mi l i tari l y or economi cal l y ' :rn-g state l i nki ng concessi ons on monetary pol i cy to reci procal conces- rs i n oceans pol i cy. on the other hand, poo.*.ui states are not si mi l ar_ rnhi bi ted from l i nki ng unrerated i ssues, partry because thei r domestrc -:3rests are l ess compl ex. Li nkage of unrel ated i ssues i s often a means of : ::rcting concessions or side payments from rich and powerful states. And "-.:ke powerful states whose i nstrument for l i nkage (mi l i tary force) i s ' 3n too costly to use, the linkage instrument used by poo., ,"uk states_ - :national organization_is available and inexpensive. Thus as the utility of force declines, and as issues become more equal - -:xportance, the di stri buti on of power wi thi n each i ssue wi l l become * :3 lmportant. If linkages become less effective on the whole, outcomes : rl i ti cal bargai ni ng wi l l i ncreasi ngl y vary by i ssue area. The di fferenti ati on among i ssue areas i n compl ex i nterdependence --::rs thot l i nkages among i ssues wi l l become more probl emati c and wi l l : - r ro reduce rather than reinforce international hieraichy. Linkage strate_ - : ' ' and def ense agai nst t hem, wi l l pose cr i t i cal st r ai egi c chJi ces f or -' " Shoul d i ssues be.consi dered separatel y or as a package? If l i nkages - -: r be drawn, whi ch i ssues shoul d be l i nked, and on whi ch of the l i nked -:' should concessions be made? How far can one push a linkage befbre -:-trrres counterproductive? For instance, should one seek form-al agree_ ":-r' or i nformal , but l ess pori ti cal l y sensi ti ve, understandi ngs? The fact "-"' i orl d pol i ti cs under compl ex i nterdependence i s not a sJaml ess web --' us to expect that efforts to sti tch seams together advantageousl y, as -:::ed i n l i nkage strategi es, wi l l , very often, determi ne the si ape of the l eenda Setti ng ' - ' :--ond assumpti on of comprex i nterdependence, the l ack of cl ear hi er- -. :rron-g mul ti pl e i ssues, l eads us to expect that the pol i ti cs of agenda 54 ContendingViews of IPE formation and control will become more important. Traditional analyses lead statesmen to focus on politico-military issues and to pay little attention to the broader politics of agenda formation. Statesmen assume that the agenda will be set by shifts in the balance of power, actual or anticipated, and by perceived threats to the security of states. Other issues will only be very important when they seem to affect security and military power. In these cases, agendas will be influenced strongly by considerations of the overall balance of power. Yet, today, some nonmilitary issues are emphasized in interstate rela- tions at one time, whereas others of seemingly equal importance are neg- lected or quietly handled at a technical level. Intemational monetary poli- tics, problems of commodity terms of trade, oil, food, and multinational corporations have all been important during the last decade; but not all have been high on interstate agendas throughout that period. Traditional analysts of international politics have paid little attention to agenda formation: to how issues come to receive sustained attention by high officials. The traditional orientation toward military and security affairs implies that the crucial problems of foreign policy are imposed on states by the actions or threats of other states. These are high politics as opposed to the low politics of economic affairs. Yet, as the complexity of actors and issues in world politics increases, the utility of force declines and the line between domestic policy and foreign policy becomes blurred: as the conditions of complex interdependence are more closely approxi- mated, the politics of agenda formation becomes more subtle and differen- tiated. Under compl ex i nterdependence we can expect the agenda to be affected by the international and domestic problems created by economic growth and i ncreasi ng sensi ti vi ty i nterdependence. . Di scontented domesti c groups wi l l pol i ti ci ze i ssues and force more i ssues once consi d- ered domesti c onto the i nterstate agenda. Shi fts i n the di stri buti on of power resources within sets of issues will also affect agendas. During the earl y 1970s the i ncreased power of oi l -produci ng governments over the t r ansnat i onal cor por at i ons and t he consumer count r i es dr amat i cal l y al tered the pol i cy agenda. Moreover, agendas for one group of i ssues may change as a result of linkages from other groups in which power resources are changing; for example, the broader agenda of North-South trade issues changed after the OPEC price rises and the oil embargo of 1973-74. Even i f capabi l i ti es among states do not change, agendas may be affected by shifts in the importance of transnational actors. The pub- licity surrounding multinational corporations in the early 1970s, coupled with their rapiil growth over the past twenty years, put the regulation of such corporations higher on both the United Nations agenda and national agendas. Robert O. Keohone &Joseph S. Nye 55 Tran s national and Tran sgove rn m ental Relati on s .'-: :hird condition of complex interdependence, multiple channels of con- ,,-: rmong soci eti es, further bl urs the di sti ncti on between domesti c and -:::rational politics. The availability of partners in political coalitions is ' . r ecessar i l y l i mi t ed by nat i onal boundar i es as t r adi t i onal anal ysi s -'- -:nes. The nearer a situation is to complex interdependence, the more we : ':e--t the outcomes of political bargaining to be affected by transnational -: :tit1rlS. Multinational corporations may be significant both as independent ;ui r,ri &fld as instruments manipulated by governments. The attitudes and :, --\ stands of domestic groups are likely to be affected by communica- : .--. organized or not, between them and their counterparts abroad. Thus the existence of multiple channels of contact leads us to expect -.:.. beyond those normally found in domestic politics, on the ability of ::ri:rnn to calculate the manipulation of interdependence or follow a con- .::rt strategy of linkage. Statesmen must consider differential as well as --::3gate effects of interdependence strategies and their likely implications - :r-rliticization and agenda control. Transactions among societies-eco- -, .:-i,- and social transactions more than security ones-affect groups differ- :-:.' .. Qppel tuni ti es and costs from i ncreased transnati onal ti es may be :-::i3r for certain groups-for instance, American workers in the textile or ,-, e industries-than for others. Some organizations or groups may interact : :::tlv with actors in other societies or with other governments to increase :,..: benefits from a network of interaction. Some actors may therefore be .:'- rulnerable as well as less sensitive to changes elsewhere in the network r;r .lr others, and this will affect patterns of political action. The multiple channels of contact found in complex interdependence :i: rr-rt limited to nongovernmental actors. Contacts between governmental -'-::rucracies charged with similar tasks may not only alter their perspec- :: but lead to transgovernmental coalitions on particular policy ques- r.'. To improve their chances of success, govemment agencies attempt to ' - : - i act or s f r om ot her gover nment s i nt o t hei r own deci si on- maki ng :r.rsrses as allies. Agencies of powerful states such as the United States :;. i used such coalitions to penetrate weaker governments in such coun- :-:i irs Turkey and Chile. They have also been used to help agencies of r--":f governments penetrate the United States bureaucracy.l . . . The existence of transgovernmental policy networks leads to a differ- :- :nterpretation of one of the standard propositions about international :, -:1!-s-that states act in their own interest. Under complex interdepend- :--:. thi s conventi onal wi sdom begs two i mportant questi ons: whi ch sel f .- : ' * hi ch i nterest? A government agency may pursue i ts own i nterests --:rr the gui se of the nati onal i nterest; and recurrent i nteracti ons can --.1S offi ci al percepti ons ofthei r i nterests. . . . 56 ContendingViewsoflPE The ambiguity of the national interest raises serious problems for the top political leaders of governments. As bureaucracies contact each other directly across national borders (without going through foreign offices), centralized control becomes more difficult. There is less assurance that the state will be united when dealing with foreign governments or that its com- ponents will interpret national interests similarly when negotiating with foreigners. The state may prove to be multifaceted, even schizophrenic. National interests will be defined differently on different issues, at different times, and by different governmental units. States that are better placed to maintain their coherence (because of a centralized political tradition such as France's) will be better able to manipulate uneven interdependence than fragmented states that at first glance seem to have more resources in an issue area. Role of lnternational Organizations Finally, the existence of multiple channels leads one to predict a different and si gni fi cant rol e for i nternati onal organi zati ons i n worl d pol i ti cs. Realists in the tradition of Hans J. Morgenthau have portrayed a world in which states, acting from self-interest, struggle for "power and peace." Security issues are dominant; war threatens. In such a world, one may assume that international institutions will have a minor role, limited by the rare congruence of such interests. International organizations are then clearly peripheral to world politics. But in a world of multiple issues imper- fectly linked, in which coalitions are formed transnationally and transgov- emmentally, the potential role of intemational institutions in political bar- gaining is greatly increased. In particular, they help set the international agenda, and act as catalysts for coalition-formation and as arenas for politi- cal initiatives and linkage by weak states. Governments must organize themselves to cope with the flow of busi- ness generated by international organizations. By defining the salient issues, and deciding which issues can be grouped together, organizations may help to determine governmental priorities and the nature of interdepartmental commi ttees and other arrangements wi thi n governments. The 1972 Stockholm Environment Conference strengthened the position of environ- mental agencies in various governments . The 197 4 World Food Conference focused the attention of important parts of the United States govemment on prevention of food shortages. The September 1975 United Nations special session on proposa]s for a New International Economic Order generated an intragovernmental debate about policies toward the Third World in general. The Intemational Monetary Fund and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade have focused govemmental activity on money and trade instead of on Robert O. Keohane &JosePh S. NYe 57 Tabl e 4. I Pol i ti cal Processes Under Condi ti ons of Real i sm and Compl ex Interdependence Real i sm Compl ex Interdependence Goals of actors Instruments of state policy Asenda formation Linkages of issues Rol es of intemational organizations Military security will be the dominant goal. Military force will be most effective, although economic and other instruments will also be used. Potenti al shi fts i n the bal ance of power and security threats wi l l set the agenda i n hi gh pol i ti cs and wi l l strongl Y influence other agendas. Linkages will reduce differences in outcomes among issue areas and reinforce intemational hierarchy. Roles are minor, limited by state power and the importance of military force. Goal s of states wi l l vary bY i ssue area. Transgovemmental pol i ti cs wi l l make goal s di ffi cul t to define. Transnational actors wi l l pursue thei r own goal s. Power resources speci fi c to i ssue areas wi l l be most rel evant. Mani pul ati on of i nterdependence. i ntemati onal organi zati ons. and transnati onal actors wi l l be maj or i nstruments. Agenda will be affected by changes i n the di stri buti on of power resources wi thi n i ssue areas; the status of i ntemati onal regi mes; changes i n the importance of transnational actors; l i nkages from other i ssues and pol i ti ci zati on as a resul t of ri si ng sensi ti vi ty interdependence. Linkages by strong states will be more difficult to make since force will be ineffective. Linkages by weak states through intemational organizations will erode rather than reinforce hierarchy. Organizations will set agendas, induce coalition-formation, and act as arenas for pol i ti cal acti on by weak states. Abi l i ty to choose the organizational forum for an issue and to mobilize votes will be an important political resource. private direct investment, which has no comparable international orgailza- tion. By bringing officials together, international organizations help to acti- vate potential coalitions in world politics. It is quite obvious that interna- tional organizations have been very impofiant in bringing together repre- sentati ves of l ess devel oped countri es, most of whi ch do not mai ntai n 58 ContendingViewsoflPE embassies in one another's capitals. Third World strategies of solidarity among poor countries have been developed in and for a series of interna- ti onal conferences, mostl y under the auspi ces of the Uni ted Nati ons.2 International organizations also allow agencies of governments, which might not otherwise come into contact, to tum potential or tacit coalitions into explicit transgovernmental coalitions characterized by direct commu- nications. In some cases, international secretariats deliberately promote this process by forming coalitions with groups of governments, or with units of governments, as well as with nongovemmental organizations having simi- lar interests.3 International organizations are frequently congenial institutions for weak states. The one-state-one-vote norm of the United Nations system favors coalitions of the small and powerless. Secretariats are often respon- sive to Third World demands. Furthermore, the substantive norms of most international organizations, as they have developed over the years, stress social and economic equity as well as the equality of states. Past resolu- tions expressing Third World positions, sometimes agreed to with reserva- tions by industrialized countries, are used to legitimize other demands. These agreements are rarely binding, but up to a point the norms of the institution make opposition look more harshly self-interested and less defensible. . . . Complex interdependence therefore yields different political pattems than does the realist conception of the world. (Table 4.1 summarizes these differences.) Thus, one would expect traditional theories to fail to explain international regime change in situations of complex interdependence. But, for a situation that approximates realist conditions, traditional theories should be appropriate. . . . Notes I . For a more detailed discussion, see Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye' Jr., "Transgovernmental Relations and Intemational Organizati ons," Wor ld P olit ic s 27, no. | (October 197 4): 39-62. 2. Branislav Gosovic and John Gerard Ruggie, "On the Creation of a New International Economic Order: Issue Linkage and the Seventh Special Session of the UN General Assembly," International Organization 30, no. 2 (Spring 1976): 30946. 3. Robert W. Cox, "The Executive Head," International Organization 23, no' 2 (Spring 1969): 205-30.