TURKISH PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTION: Results and Analysis

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An a l y s i s b y AP CO s I s t a n b u l o f f i c e ( Au g u s t 1 1 , 2 0 1 4 )
Overview of the Results
Citizens went to the polls on August 11 in what was
Turkeys frst-ever direct election for the presidency.
Securing 51.8 percent of the vote, the present prime
minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoan, has succeeded in staking
his place in history as the frst popularly elected president
of the Republic of Turkey. Ekmeleddin hsanolu, the
former head of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation
(OIC) and a joint candidate of the Republican Peoples
Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP),
gained nearly 38.5 percent of the vote, with Selahattin
Demirta, the co-chair of Peoples Democratic Party (HDP),
fnishing third at 9.8 percent.
Opinion polls had predicted that if turnout was below
80 percent, Erdoan would win up to 55 percent of the
vote and a run-off scheduled on August 24 would be
unnecessary. While 55 percent was unobtainable for
Erdoan, the turnout rate of 73 percent still weighed in his
favor ensuring no runoff will be needed.
In his victory speech, President-elect Erdoan, who has led Turkey for more than a decade as prime
minister and who will hold the presidency for at least fve years, called on the country to overcome old
divisions while also making clear his intention to forge an executive-style presidency. In his speech, he
stated, Today is the day we lift mental barriers, rid ourselves of old prejudices, and peel away fears
imposed from the outside. Today is the day we open the doors to a new beginning, the day we establish
a new Turkey.
According to Turkish law, Erdoan is required to step down as the AK Partys offcial head, given the
apolitical nature of the position and the relatively ceremonial duties in which it holds. However, the
current constitution already permits certain powers previously unexercised such as the power to
chair cabinet meetings, veto laws, issue governmental decrees and decide on the internal rules of
the national parliament. Thus, some experts believe that Erdoan will exercise these powers while
building a presidential cabinet and conditioning the environment for further constitutional changes and
consolidation of powers. Given that Erdoan received a higher percentage of votes in the presidential
election than his party did in the general elections of 2011, it is argued he will feel confdent in continuing
to shape the AK Party and the government according to his vision and outlook.
On August 28, both President Abdullah Gl will relinquish his term as president and the AK Party
congress will convene. This allows for the possibility of Gl to replace Erdoan as Prime Minister, which
has been widely speculated, but other experts presume that current Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu,
seen as one of Erdoans closest confdants, will be chosen as the next prime minister and the current
Head of the Turkish Intelligence Agency (M.I.T.) will be tapped as the new foreign minister.
TURKISH PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION: Results and Analysis
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An a l y s i s b y AP CO s I s t a n b u l o f f i c e ( Au g u s t 1 1 , 2 0 1 4 )
Recep Tayyip
Erdogan
Ekmeleddin
Ihsanoglu
Selahattin
Demirtas
Abdullah Gul Ahmet
Davutolu
Hakan Fidan
Prime minister
for more than
10 years and
now the frst
popularly
elected
president with
52 percent of
the vote
The joint
candidate
of Turkeys
two largest
opposition
parties, CHP
and MHP, came
away with 38
percent of the
vote
Candidate of
the pro-Kurdish
Peoples
Democracy
Party won 10
percent of the
vote
Current
president
stepping down
on August 28
and possible
next prime
minister of
Turkey
Current minister
of foreign
affairs of ruling
AK Party
government
and possible
next prime
minister of
Turkey
Current head
of the Turkish
Intelligence
Agency (MIT)
and possible
next minister of
foreign affairs
if Davutolu is
elected prime
minister
General elections expected for spring of 2015 would determine if Erdoan will be able to secure the
two-thirds majority in parliament needed for the constitutional changes that would increase presidential
powers and transform Turkey into a presidential-style system. It is expected that Erdoan will seek to ensure
the momentum of this election into the general elections of 2015, and similar to yesterdays election, the
strength of the Turkish economy will be a large factor.
New Era in Turkish Politics
The new era being discussed has now started with the frst direct election of Turkeys president and will
be shaped by the likely transformation of Turkeys entire political system.
With the election of Erdoan to the presidency with a strong electoral mandate, it is expected that the
country will move towards a presidential system similar to that of the United States. With this change,
new questions arise. For example, how will a system of checks and balances be implemented? How will
opposition parties organize themselves? And, how will Erdoan manage regional issues such as ISIS and
Syria?
The inability of Turkeys main opposition parties CHP and MHP to unify speaks volume for the countrys
opposition moving forward. Further challenging the status quo is the signifcant increase of votes
received by Demirtas, signifying the importance of the potential role that Kurds will play in the making of
Turkeys future.
A few of the key takeaways from what is to be expected in the new era include:
A strong and active President Erdoan
A continued activist, Middle East-oriented foreign policy
More changes to the constitution
A slowly revolving opposition that may see younger, liberal voters further distance themselves from
the main opposition CHP and towards more liberal parties such as HDP.
Given that the results of the elections met the expectations of most investors, it is likely fnancial markets
will react favorably in the short term while the long-term effects of the economy will remain a signifcant
measurement of political popularity in Turkey. A few indicators make the economy appear vulnerable,
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An a l y s i s b y AP CO s I s t a n b u l o f f i c e ( Au g u s t 1 1 , 2 0 1 4 )
TURKISH PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION: Results and Analysis
such as infation at a steady rate of 9 percent (almost double the offcial target) as a result of violence in
neighboring countries, Syria and Iraq, causing exports to decrease. GDP growth is down to 4 percent
compared to 2010 levels of 9 percent. However, despite the Prime Minister having a year with both
economic and political setbacks including the corruption probe, Soma mining disaster and the ongoing
hostage situation in the Turkish consulate in Mosul, Erdoans popularity appears to be enduring, and
most signs point towards continued long-term economic growth. The relative monetary stability with the
economic growth that drove the country and the government forward in the last 12 years is one of the
biggest assets that Erdoan was able to leverage throughout the campaign.
The AK Party has now won seven elections held across the country since coming to power in 2002,
affrming its solid base of working class, religious support that has ensured a plurality, and in this election,
a majority . While other parties have more regional support, the AK Party is the only party that has been
able to win votes on a national scale in recent years while also managing to deliver tangible results for
voters such as overseeing a doubling of per capita GDP in the past decade. Maintaining this support and
continuing to deliver for its electoral base will be critical to the AK Partys continued success.
For more information on these issues and to learn more about APCOs capabilities in Turkey please contact:
Valerie Harrison
consultant, Turkey
APCO Worldwide
Kurucesme Mahallesi Muallim Naci Caddesi
93/95 B Block Floor: 2
34345 Kurucesme Istabnul
Tel: +90 212 362 4203
Email: vharrison@apcoworldwide.com
This piece was originally published by the Diplomatic Courier.
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