Thinking Critically With

Psychological Science
Unit 2
Why Do Psychology?
1. How can we differentiate between
uninformed opinions and examined
conclusions?
2. The science of psychology helps make
these examined conclusions, which
leads to our understanding of how
people feel, think, and act as they do!
What About Intuition & Common
Sense?
Many people believe that intuition and common
sense are enough to bring forth answers regarding
human nature.
Intuition and common sense may aid queries,
but they are not free of error.
Study #1: A recent study by researchers at Harvard shows as
people grow older they tend to stick to old beliefs and find it
difficult to accept conflicting information about topics they
are already familiar with. The findings seem to suggest you
cant teach an old dog new tricks.
Study #2: A study out of The University of Alberta shows older
people, with years of wisdom and a virtual library of facts
from decades of exposure to media find it much easier to
finish a four-year degree ahead of time than an 18-year-old
who has to contend with an unfinished, still-growing brain.
The findings show you are never too old to learn.
Which study is correct? You cant teach an old dog new tricks
OR you are never too old to learn??
Actually, I made both of these up. Neither one is a
real study. (Using fake studies is a favorite way of
demonstrating hindsight bias, thanks to psychologist
David G. Meyers for the idea.)
Both of those fake studies seemed probable
because when you learn something new you quickly
edit your past so you can feel the comfort of always
being right.
The Hindsight Bias
The Hindsight Bias (I-knew-it-all-along
phenomenon)
= our tendency to believe that we could
have foreseen how something turned out,
but only after learning the outcome.
In retrospect, results typically appear to us as
obvious, predictable, or even inevitable.
We tend to overestimate or exaggerate what we
could have anticipated.
The Hindsight Bias
Hindsight is always 20/20
Postdiction is easy
Prediction is difficult.
Example: The Monday morning quarterback.
Example: Knowing the ending of a mystery was obvious, but
only after finishing the story.
Example: Having the gut feeling that a particular
relationship was destined to succeed/fail, after youve
experienced the outcome.
The Hindsight Bias can deceive you into believing
that you know more than you actually do.
How confident are you that you could
write down all 50 states in 3 minutes
or less?
What percentage?
Lets try it!
Overconfidence
Sometimes we think we know
more than we actually know.
Anagram
NOISE IESON
THING GHINT
GREAT TEAGR
How long do you think it
would take to unscramble
these anagrams?
What percentage of the 50
states did you get correct?
Were you overconfident?
The Scientific Attitude
The scientific attitude is composed of curiosity
(passion for exploration), skepticism(doubting
and questioning) and humility (ability to accept
responsibility when wrong).
Critical Thinking
Critical thinking does
not accept arguments
and conclusions blindly.
It examines
assumptions, discerns
hidden values,
evaluates evidence and
assesses conclusions.
The Amazing Randi
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As ice cream sales increaseso do shark attacks.
Does eating ice cream cause shark attacks?
The Confirmation Bias
Ye Shall Find Only What Ye Shall Seek
The Confirmation Bias
When testing our ideas, we should collect evidence
in an impartial, unbiased fashion.
Unfortunately, the ways in which we actually test our
ideas are frequently far from unbiased.
We tend to selectively gather information that is consistent
with our prior expectations.
We actively search for evidence that will confirm our
beliefs, while we are less likely to seek out evidence that
might refute them.
This is called the Confirmation Bias.
Big Foot
Example
The Confirmation Bias
Consider this example:
Mary harbors affection for Zev and believes he feels the
same for her. When she looks for evidence to
support her belief, what does she notice?
He always greets her every morning before work.
He smiles at her constantly.
He offers to run errands for her on his breaks.
The Confirmation Bias
But, what evidence does she fail to notice?
Zev also always greets each and every coworker
every morning before work.
He smiles at everyone constantly.
He offers to run errands for any senior employee
because he hopes to get promoted.
(Perhaps the full evidence confirms only that Zev has
career ambitions?)
In Summary:
The Confirmation Bias affects research when
investigators ask questions that are more likely to
lead to their preferred outcomes.
Therefore, make it a point to actively seek out
evidence that could, in principle, refute your
preconceptions.
In essence, Consider the Opposite.
How Do Psychologists Ask &
Answer Questions?
Psychologists, like all scientists, use the
scientific method to construct theories that
organize, summarize and simplify
observations.
Theory
A theory is an explanation that integrates
principles and organizes and predicts
behavior or events.
For example, low self-esteem contributes to
depression.
~a summary of repeatedly observed behavior~
Hypothesis
A hypothesis is a testable prediction, often
prompted by a theory, to enable us to
accept, reject or revise the theory.
People with low self-esteem are apt to
feel more depressed.
(Relationship between variables)
Different Kinds of Hypotheses?
Null Hypothesis
There is no effect
Fail to reject the Null
Experimental Hypothesis
H1, H2, H3
Research Observations
Research would require us to administer
tests of self-esteem and depression.
Individuals who score low on a self-
esteem test and high on a depression test
would confirm our hypothesis.
Figure 2.1 Theory construction
Figure 2.2 Flowchart of
steps in a scientific
investigation
An operational definition is a clearly defined set of
procedures for measuring or manipulating the construct of
interest.
The key to an acceptable operational definition is that the
procedure is specified precisely enough to allow replication by
others.
Examples:
quality of memory -- accuracy of recall in a certain task
depression -- Beck Depression Inventory (survey) score
intelligence score on specified IQ test
Operational Definitions
She is a good car
salesperson
She:
1. Sells many cars
2. Points out + features
3. Is nice
4. Sells only good cars
Verbal Statement
Operational Definition
Operational Definitions: Examples
Stress
1. Environment/Number of stressors
a. Number negative Life events
b. Number of Examinations
2. Self-report
Measurable Nervous mood
3. Behavior
a. number of fidgets/minute
b. Psychophysiological
responses elevated
Verbal Statement Operational Definition
Operational Definitions: Examples
WHY DO PSYCHOLOGISTS
NEED OPERATIONAL
DEFINITIONS?????
Replication!
Choose 1, generate an operational
definition:
Happiness
A smile
Intelligence
Popularity
Good music
~Remember, create a measurable definition!
Sampling- WHY?
If each member of a
population has an equal
chance of inclusion into a
sample, it is called a
random sample
(unbiased).
If the survey sample is
biased, its results are not
valid.
Random Sampling
The fastest way to know about the
marble color ratio is to blindly
transfer a few into a smaller jar and
count them.
Figure 2.16 The relationship between the population and the sample
What does the term
GENERALIZE mean in the
context of SAMPLING?
We sample because we cant test an entire
population-SO-If we have a RANDOM,
REPRESENTATIVE SAMPLE, we are
ABLE TO GENERALIZE ABOUT OUR
ENTIRE POPULATION FROM THE
RESULTS OF OUR SAMPLE!
CRUCIAL POINT!!!!
Descriptive Research: Case
Studies, Surveys, Naturalistic
Observation
Observe & record behavior. No control.
Descriptive Research
Case Study
A technique in which one person is studied in
depth to reveal underlying behavioral principles.
Is language uniquely human?
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Tan &
Broca
Little Albert
& Watson
Survey
A technique for ascertaining the self-reported
attitudes, opinions or behaviors of people
usually done by questioning a representative,
random sample of people.
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Survey
Wording can change the results of a survey.
Q: Should cigarette ads and pornography be
allowed on television? (not allowed vs. forbid)
Wording Effects
Naturalistic Observation
Observing and recording the behavior of animals in the
wild and recording self-seating patterns in a multiracial
school lunch room constitute naturalistic observation.
Descriptive Research
Case studies, surveys, and naturalistic
observation describe behaviors.
What are the limitations of descriptive
research?
*Case Study: results may be atypical
*Survey: not always honest responses
*Naturalistic Observation: researcher presence can alter
natural behavior
Summary
Correlations
A correlation occurs when:
two or more variables are in a relationship where
one variable gives us information about the
other(s).
When one trait or behavior accompanies another,
we say the two correlate.
Correlations:
allow us to predict relationships based on
statistical probability.
give us an idea of both the direction (positive or
negative) and degree to which two or more
variables are related.
Correlational Research helps us find
RELATIONSHIPS!
Correlation Coefficient is a
statistical measure of the
relationship between two
variables.
When one trait or behavior accompanies
another, we say the two correlate.
Correlation
coefficient
Indicates direction
of relationship
(positive or negative)
Indicates strength
of relationship
(0.00 to 1.00)
r =
0.37 +
Figure 2.13 Positive and negative correlation
Two Basic Kinds of
Correlations:
Positive: the variables change in the same
direction, like height and weight.
Negative : the variables change in opposite
directions, like:
as class absences increase, grades tend to
decrease.
Positive and Negative
Perfect positive
correlation (+1.00)
Scatterplot is a graph comprised of points that are
generated by values of two variables. The slope of
the points depicts the direction, while the amount
of scatter depicts the strength of the relationship.
Scatterplots
Scatterplot
The Scatterplot below shows a moderate positive
correlation of +0.63.
No relationship (0.00)
Perfect negative
correlation (-1.00)
The Scatterplot on the left shows a negative correlation,
while the one on the right shows no relationship between
the two variables.
Scatterplots
Correlation Does Not Prove
Causation
We may find that two things are
correlated but we cant assume one
CAUSES the other
or
Correlation does not mean
causation!
People who ate Frosted Flakes as children had half the cancer rate of those
that never ate it. Does eating Frosted Flakes prevent cancer? NO!
Correlations
It is possible (but not common) for a
correlated relationship also to be a causal
relationship.
Example: Unprotected sex is both correlated with
and causal of pregnancy
But, correlations do not prove causation.
Knowing what occurs does not explain why it
occurs.
We can predict likely out outcomes, but not
causes.
CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION!!!
People that floss everyday live 3 years longer than those that do not.
Red wine drinkers live longer than those that do not drink red wine.
As speed limits increased on Americas highways, the death rate went down.
Women with breast implants commit suicide 3 times as often as those
without breast implants.
Children who are played Mozart in the womb have higher IQs.
Marijuana users in youth are more likely to have mental illness as adults.
As ice cream sales increased, so did shark attacks.
More TVs per person in a country, the longer people live.
Illusory Correlation
The perception of a
relationship where no
relationship actually
exists, or perception of a
stronger relationship than
actually exists.
A false impression that
two variables correlate.
It always rains on the
weekend
The phone always rings
when you are in the
shower
Librarians are quiet
Fallacies we are fooled by
Post hoc ergo propter hoc- After therefore
because of
a fallacy that states "Since that event
followed this one, that event must have been
caused by this one."
Black cat crosses under your car, then you
get in an accidentyou blame the cat
(illusory correlation)
Order in Random Events
Given random data, we look for order and
meaningful patterns.
Your chances of being dealt either of these hands is
precisely the same: 1 in 2,598,960.
Order in Random Events
Given large numbers of random outcomes, a few
are likely to express order.
Angelo and Maria Gallina won two
California lottery games on the same day.
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Experimentation
Like other sciences, experimentation is the
backbone of psychological research.
Experiments isolate causes and their effects.
Exploring Cause and Effect
Exploring Cause & Effect
Many factors influence our behavior. Experiments
(1) manipulate factors that interest us, while other
factors are kept under (2) control.
Effects generated by manipulated factors isolate
cause and effect relationships.
The Experimental Method:
Discovering the Causes
of Behavior
Experiment: A controlled situation in which
the researcher manipulates one variable
to discover its effect on another variable,
while holding all other conditions
constant.
E.g. Experiment: Does taking a vitamin pill
improve test performance?
Independent Variable: The variable that the
researcher manipulates.
E.g. IV: Vitamin Pill
Manipulates basically means that we assign
different levels of the variable to different
groups. For example:
Suppose the independent variable is the amount of time
students have to take a test.
We can give one class 40 minutes and another 60
minutes. These are the levels of the time variable.
Dependent Variable: This is an aspect of the
participants behavior that the researcher
records to see if it will be influenced by the
independent variable.
E.g. DV: test performance
Another example:
In the test-taking situation, we could record how many
questions each student got right. Number of correct
answers would be the dependent variable.
In everyday terms:
Independent Variable = Cause
Dependent Variable = Effect
Experimental Group: This is a group that is
exposed to the independent variable.
E.g.: Those taking vitamin pill
Control Group: This is a group that is not
exposed to the independent variable.
E.g. Those acting as they normally would, OR more
likely, those taking a placebo.
Independent Variable:
Dependent Variable:
The experimental factor that is manipulated in an experiment.
The experimental factor that is being measured/may change
Experimental group
Control group:
Confounding Variables
Group being treated/manipulated for the sake of the experiment
Control groups are not manipulated.
Anything not being controlled.
_____________________ an inert substance or
condition that may be administered instead of
a presumed active agent, such as a drug, to
see if it triggers the effects believed to
characterize the active agent
*Placebo Effect
__________________________ an experimental
procedure in which both the subject and the research
staff are ignorant (blind) about whether the subject
has received the treatment or a placebo
Placebo
Double-Blind Procedure
Double Blind Procedure
In evaluating drug therapies, patients and
experimenters assistants should remain
unaware of which patients had the real
treatment and which patients had the placebo
treatment.
WHY???
So, in the test-taking example, if the students
who get 60 minutes to take the test do better
than those who get 40 minutes, we can say it
was the time factor that caused this difference
in performance, assuming
there were no other differences between the
classes.
Everything else must be HELD CONSTANT.
EXPERIMENTATION CAUSE & EFFECT!
Assigning participants to experimental and
control conditions by random assignment
minimizes pre-existing differences between the
two groups.
**do NOT confuse with random sample
1) participants must first be chosen as a random
sample from the population
2) once a random sample has been chosen for an
experiment, each subject is randomly assigned to
either the experimental or control group
(Forumla-fed vs. Breast-fed)
Random Assignment
The effects of violent video game play on reaction timeIV? DV? Which group plays the violent
game???
Confounding Variables: Any variable not controlled for
that could change the results of the experiment
What about
the effects a
vitamin pill
on test
performance
are there
any
confounding
variables that
could change
the results?
Figure 2.6 The basic elements of an experiment
Identify Key Experimental
Features
Social loafing refers to peoples tendency to slack on
group tasks. In one study on social loafing college
participants cheered alone, and in groups of 2, 4, or 6 ppl.
They were told to cheer as loud as possible at specific
times so researchers could determine how much noise
people made in social settings. The amount of noise made
by each participant dropped as group size increased.
1) What is the IV?
2) What is the DV?
3) Why is random assignment important here?
Steps to conducting an experiment.
What would be a good topic to experiment with at Warren?
What would be useful knowledge for the school to gain?
Ethics in Psychological Research:
Do the Ends Justify the Means?
The question of deception
The question of animal research
Controversy among psychologists and the
public
Ethical standards for research: the
American Psychological Association
Ensures both human and animal subjects are
treated with dignity
Stanley Milgram
Yale University Psychologist
Notable studies in the early 1960s
Study of Obedience
Current research proves that
results are consistent with todays
behaviors
Figure 2.17 Ethics in research
Comparison of Research Types
Below is a comparison of different research
methods.
Experiment Terminology
Operational definitions are used to clarify
precisely what is meant by each variable
Participants or subjects are the organisms
whose behavior is systematically observed
in a study
Data collection techniques allow for
empirical observation and measurement
Statistics are used to analyze data and
decide whether hypotheses were supported
Statistical Reasoning in Everyday
Life
Doubt big, round, undocumented
numbers as they can be misleading and
before long, become public
misinformation.
Apply simple statistical reasoning in
everyday life to think smarter!
Statistical Reasoning
Statistical procedures analyze and interpret data
allowing us to see what the unaided eye misses.
Composition of ethnicity in urbanlocales
Describing Data
A meaningful description of data is important in
research. Misrepresentation may lead to
incorrect conclusions.
Measures of Central Tendency
Mean: The arithmetic average of scores in a
distribution obtained by adding the
scores and then dividing by the number
of scores that were added together.
Median: The middle score in a rank-ordered
distribution.
Mode: The most frequently occurring score
in a distribution.
#1-4
Measures of Variation
(How much scores differ from each other)
Range: The difference between the highest and
lowest scores in a distribution (SUBTRACT).
Variance: How spread out are data points from
mean?...need to calculate using formula
Standard Deviation: A computed measure of
how much scores vary around the mean.
#5 & 8
*MEASURES the
AVERAGE Error in
our SAMPLE!
Standard Deviation
What is the difference between these data sets?
Normal Curve
A symmetrical, bell-shaped curve that
describes the distribution of many types of
data (normal distribution). Most scores fall
near the mean.
68% are within One standard deviation from mean
95% are within Two standard deviations from mean
Bell or Normal Curve
#6, 7, 9 & 10
Are these NORMAL distributions?
No, the top is positively skewed, the
bottom is negatively skewed.
Are these NORMAL distributions?
+skew:
Scores pull the mean towards
the higher end of the score
mean is more positive then
rest of the scores
-skew:
Occurs when the mean
is being pulled down
toward the lower end of
the scores
Measures of Central Tendency
A Skewed Distribution
Mean: Average
Median: Middle
Score
Mode: frequently
occurring #
# of
Students
Test Scores
Mean: Average
Median: Middle
Score
Mode: frequently
occurring #
# of
Students
Test Scores
Skews
Income or
Housing
Prices
Test Scores
#11
-skew:
Occurs when the mean
is being pulled own
toward the lower end of
the scores
+skew:
When scores pull the mean
towards the higher end of the
score mean is more
positive then rest of the
scores
Descriptive vs. Inferential Statistics
Generalize from a
sample to a
population
INFER
Study a sample
Record data
Mean, median, mode,
etc.
DESCRIBE
Inferential Statistics
The purpose is to
discover whether the
finding can be applied
to the larger population
from which the sample
was collected.
T-tests, ANOVA or
MANOVA
P-value= .05 for
statistical significance.
5% likely the results
are due to chance.
Unit 1 & 2 Test REVIEW!
Note cards (review/quiz self)
Study Guide complete (Unit 2 only for
grade) do 1 for review due WED
Checks for understanding due WED
Text online quizzes
Review Sessions:
Tuesday, 9/3: at 2:20 p.m. room 117
Wednesday, 9/4 @ 6:45 a.m. room 117
How to Study for AP Psych TEST
I will send you an e-mail to your WTHS
account!!
With some helpful tips!
Making Inferences
A statistical statement of how frequently an
obtained result occurred by experimental
manipulation or by chance.
Lets test whether the style of dress one wears
affects the number of job offers they receive.
IV? style of dress
DV? -- job offers!!!
Independent Variable = Style of Dress
DV = Job offers
Was the difference in # of job offers received
a result of the independent variable
(style of dress)?
Or was it due to chance?
We run a test of statistical significance!!!
(lets leave the computation to the mathematicians, shall we?!)
Making Inferences
When sample averages are reliable and the
difference between them is relatively large, we
say the difference has statistical significance. It is
probably not due to chance variation.
For psychologists this difference is measured
through alpha level set at 5 percent.
When is a Difference Significant?
p .05 (5%)
#12
If p .05..
This means that the difference in # of job
offers was 5% (or less) due to chance &
95% due to the independent variable (style
of dress).
GREAT FINDING!!!
Hypothesis: effects of severe pain
on running speed
IV: severe pain knee hit with baseball bat
DV: speedgoes down!!
EXTREME example
.65 difference NOT by chancesomething
major happened to cause this to happen.
Experimentation changed this and caused
thisto significantnot valid
Illusion of Control
1. Illusory Correlation: the perception of a
relationship where no relationship actually
exists.
2. Regression Toward the Mean: the tendency
for extremes of unusual scores or events to
regress toward the average.
B student gets a 98% on a testWOWZA!!!
.but the student will still return to his B
average
Baseball player hits 240 normally, now hits
305, eventually will go back to normal hitting
average
That chance events are subject to personal control is an
illusion of control fed by:
1. Representative samples are better than biased
samples.
2. Less-variable observations are more reliable than
more variable ones
(think #16 basketball player from Stats Packet)
3. More cases are better than fewer cases.
(the difference between 4 peoples test scores is not as
reliable as comparing the difference between 200
peoples test scores)
When is an Observed Difference Reliable?