6/1/2014 #CreativeDisruption Survey 3 Results | Center for a New American Security

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#CreativeDisruption Survey 3 Results
May 6, 2014
Ben FitzGerald And Michael Horowitz
Thanks to everyone who participated in this survey and previous surveys. Were extremely happy with the
level of participation and the insights you have shared with us. As before, we have visualized the findings.
Please find the results and some key takeaway points below.
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1. Large majorities of survey respondents believe that a major power will develop and deploy a fully
autonomous weapons system by 2030, use a directed energy weapon in combat, and use a UAV to shoot
down a manned fighter or bomber. Yet respondents seemed much less confident that non-state actors or
even minor powers would do any of these things. This suggests that respondents believe there will be
some limits to the diffusion of military technology to minor powers and non-state actors in the
information age.
2. Respondents were much more likely to think that cyber technology will be important for defending
against attacks and network infrastructure than for offensive operations, as a new element in combined
arms warfare, or for defending against kinetic attacks. This suggests a less expansive, though still
incredibly consequential, role for cyber technology between now and 2030.
3. The technologies that respondents believe are most likely to be the subject of cutbacks on the part of
major national militaries are manned fighters and bombers. This suggests that the spread of military
robotics into core naval and ground arenas may be slower than in the air. These findings are also at odds
with current budget priorities.
4. Respondents continue to see a trend of ongoing growth for commercial technologies and businesses in
defense technology and capability.
5. Changes to the regulatory environment and reform seem unlikely with even an existential military
threat not suggesting a significant probability of reform. Similarly, respondents thought that existing
regulations are neither detrimental or significantly advantageous suggesting a lack of momentum for
change.

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positions on policy issues. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not represent the official policy or
position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. government.
2013 Center for a New American Security. All rights reserved.
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