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Final Countdown for IAS Prelims 2014 Day: 13
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1. Climate Change
Climate change is but one component of global environmental change that poses widespread risks to human
health and well-being. Among the other aspects of global environmental change are ecosystem degradation and
land use change, petroleum depletion, urban sprawl and water scarcity. Thus, although many equate climate
change alone with the broader challenge of global environmental change, this approach is too limited. In addition,
climate change risks will emerge in the context ofand very likely synergistically withthese other drivers of
environmental change.
Climate change, whether resulting from natural variability or from human activity, depends on the overall energy
budget of the planet, the balance between incoming (solar) shortwave radiation and outgoing long-wave
radiation. This balance is affected by the Earths atmosphere; in much the same way as the glass of a greenhouse
(or a cars windshield on a hot day) allows sunlight to enter and then traps heat (infrared) energy inside. An
atmosphere with higher levels of so-called greenhouse gases will retain more of this heat and result in higher
average surface temperatures than will an atmosphere with lower levels of these gases.
A major source of information on climate change is the work of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), which was established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the
United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) in 1988. Approximately every five years since 1990, the IPCC
has conducted assessments of current scientific work on climate change, the potential impacts of this change, and
various prevention options. This international body includes many outstanding scientists, representing multiple
sectors, and its reports are viewed as the most authoritative assessments on the subject. Much of the information
in this chapter is drawn from IPCC reports.
1.1 GREENHOUSE GASES
The composition of the Earths atmosphere has changed since preindustrial times. These changes, which began
around the mid-1700s, include increases in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and
nitrous oxide (N2O) that far exceed any changes occurring in the preceding 10,000 years. Historical levels of
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these greenhouse gases are known from analyses of air trapped in bubbles in Antarctic ice cores. For
example, the concentration of CO2, the major greenhouse gas, has risen by approximately 35 percent, from
about 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in the late eighteenth century to about 380 ppmv at present.
Higher greenhouse gas concentrations have contributed to warming of the Earthan effect called positive
radiative forcingby absorbing and reemitting infrared radiation toward the lower atmosphere and the Earths
surface.
All these radiative forcings affect climate and are associated with human activities or natural processes discussed
in the text. The values represent the forcings in 2005 relative to the start of the industrial era (about 1750).
Human activities cause significant changes in long-lived gases, ozone, water vapor, surface albedo, aerosols, and
contrails. The only increase in natural forcing of any significance between 1750 and 2005 occurred in solar
irradiance. Positive forcings lead to warming of climate and negative forcings lead to cooling. The thick black line
attached to each bar represents the range of uncertainty for the respective value.
Temperature changes relative to the corresponding average for 19011950 (in degrees Celsius) from decade to
decade from 1906 to 2005 over the Earths continents, the entire globe, the global land area, and the global
ocean. The temperature increase is accelerating rapidly. From 1906 to 2005, the global average temperature
rose by 0.74C. According to the IPCC, by 2100 average global temperature is projected to rise between
1.8C and 4.0C (Solomon and others, 2007). The rate of change in climate is faster now than in any period in
the last thousand years.
Although the average effect across the Earths surface is a warming, changing temperatures are only part of the
story. Higher temperatures evaporate soil moisture more quickly (leading to severe droughts), but warm air can
hold more moisture than cool air, resulting in heavy precipitation events; such hydrologic extremes (floods and
droughts) are very much a part of climate change scenarios and of substantial concern to public health
professionals. Additionally, Arctic and Antarctic ice caps are melting, releasing vast amounts of water into the
oceans, raising ocean levels, and potentially altering the flow of ocean currents. The weather patterns that result
from these and other changes vary greatly from place to place and over short periods of time, emphasizing the
importance of climate variability. For these reasons the term climate change is more accurate than global warming
and is the accepted term for this set of changes.
Regional changes in climate, particularly increases in temperature, have already affected diverse physical and
biological systems in many parts of the world. For example, river and lake ice is breaking up earlier and animal
ranges are moving to higher altitudes. Alpine species, such as certain wildflowers, have been displaced to higher
altitudes; when they have no further terrain to which to migrate some could go extinct. If Arctic sea ice continues
to disappear at the current rapid rate, polar bears will be endangered by midcentury.
Particularly Vulnerable Regions
Certain regions and populations are more vulnerable than others to the health impacts of climate change. These
vulnerable areas include
Areas or populations within or bordering regions with a high endemicity of climate-sensitive diseases (for
example, malaria)
Areas with an observed association between epidemic disease and weather extremes (for example, El Nio-
linked epidemics)
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Areas at risk from combined climate impacts relevant to health (for example, stress on food and water supplies
or risk of coastal flooding)
Areas at risk from concurrent environmental or socioeconomic stresses (for example, local stresses from land
use practices or an impoverished or undeveloped health infrastructure) and with little capacity to adapt
Changes in seasonal river flows, increases in floods and droughts, decreased food security, and biodiversity loss
are special concerns for parts of Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Low-lying coastal and delta regions (such as
coastal China, Bangladesh, and Egypt and especially densely populated, low-lying, small island states, such as
coral reef atolls throughout Polynesia) and arid regions (such as eastern Africa and central Asia, which already
suffer from drought) are at risk even without climate change and at elevated risk as the global climate warms.
These Earth system changes have direct and indirect implications for human health. The sections that follow
address major categories of anticipated health effects of climate change. These include malnutrition (possibly the
largest problem); risks from weather extremes such as heat and cold, storms and flooding, and drought-related
wildfires; air pollution and aeroallergens; and infectious diseases, particularly those that are waterborne, food-
borne, or vector-borne.
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