The Cardiff Consumer Panel: Methodological Aspects of the Conduct of a Long-Term Panel

Survey
Author(s): Neil Wrigley, Cliff Guy, Richard Dunn, Larry O'Brien
Source: Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, New Series, Vol. 10, No. 1 (1985),
pp. 63-76
Published by: Blackwell Publishing on behalf of The Royal Geographical Society (with the Institute of
British Geographers)
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63
T h e
C a r d i f f
C onsume r P a ne l :
me th od ol ogi ca l a sp e cts of
th e cond uct
of
a
l ong-te r m p a ne l
sur v e y
NEIL
WRIGLEY,
Le ctur e r i n
Ge ogr a p h y , De p t of Ge ogr a p h y , Uni v e r si ty of
Br i stol ,
Br i stol BS8
1SS
C LIFF
GUY,
Le ctur e r i n T own
P l a nni ng, Uni v e r si ty of
Wa l e s Insti tute
of
Sci e nce a nd
T e ch nol ogy ,
C ol um
Dr i v e ,
C a r d i f f
C FI 3EU
RIC HARD
DUNN,
Le ctur e r i n
Ge ogr a p h y , De p t of Ge ogr a p h y , Uni v e r si ty of
Br i stol ,
Br i stol BS8
ISS
LARRY
O'BRIEN,
Le ctur e r i n
Ge ogr a p h y , De p t of Ge ogr a p h y , C ol l e ge of
St P a ul a nd St
Ma r y ,
C h e l te nh a m GL50 2RN
Re v i se d Ms r e ce i v e d 1 Octobe r 1984
ABST RAC T
P a ne l
sur v e y s
ca n
p r ov i d e h i gh qua l i ty
d a ta of unma tch a bl e d e ta i l .
T h e y
a r e of ce ntr a l
i mp or ta nce
f or th e
d e scr i p ti on
a nd
a na l y si s
of
sp a ti a l
be h a v i our wh i ch i nv ol v e s r e cur r e nt ch oi ce a nd
mov e me nt,
a nd f or th e a sse ssme nt of
ch a nge
i n
be h a v i our ov e r ti me . In th i s
p a p e r
a d i scussi on of some
me th od ol ogi ca l a sp e cts
of
p a ne l sur v e y s
i s
p r ov i d e d
v i a a
d e scr i p ti on
a nd
a p p r a i sa l
of th e
d e si gn,
cond uct a nd ch a r a cte r i sti cs of th e C a r d i f f C onsume r P a ne l
Sur v e y
of 1982. T h e
i mp or ta nce
of th e d a ta ba se
ge ne r a te d by
th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y ,
a s a r e sour ce f or
ge ogr a p h i ca l
r e se a r ch ,
i s a sse sse d .
KEY WORDS:
Longi tud i na l /P a ne l sur v e y s,
C onsume r
p a ne l , Sp a ti a l
be h a v i our , Re ta i l
ch a nge , Sh op p i ng d i a r y ,
P a ne l
a ttr i ti on, P a ne l r e cr ui tme nt, Da ta
qua l i ty
contr ol
INT RODUC T ION
Issue s wh i ch conce r n th e
d e si gn
a nd cond uct of
p a ne l sur v e y s
a r e
ge ne r a l l y
l e ss we l l known to
ge ogr a p h e r s
th a n th ose wh i ch r e l a te to cr oss-
se cti ona l
que sti onna i r e sur v e y s.
Howe v e r ,
th e i nf or -
ma ti on obta i ne d f r om
l ongi tud i na l sur v e y s
of th i s
ty p e
i s of ce ntr a l
i mp or ta nce
f or th e
d e scr i p ti on
a nd
a na l y si s
of
sp a ti a l
be h a v i our wh i ch i nv ol v e s
r e cur r e nt ch oi ce a nd
mov e me nt,
a nd f or th e a sse ss-
me nt of
ch a nge
i n be h a v i our ov e r ti me . In th i s
p a p e r
we d i scuss some
me th od ol ogi ca l a sp e cts
of th e
cond uct of
p a ne l sur v e y s f ocusi ng
on a
r e ce ntl y
con-
d ucte d
l ong-te r m p a ne l sur v e y
of ur ba n
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our i n C a r d i f f .
Al th ough
a wi d e
r a nge
of
l ongi tud i na l sur v e y
d e si gns
a r e
commonl y
r e f e r r e d to a s
p a ne l sur v e y s,
i n th i s
p a p e r
we
a d op t
th e d e f i ni ti on of
p a ne l
sur -
v e y s ty p i ca l l y
e ncounte r e d i n consume r r e se a r ch a nd
conce ntr a te
up on
th e r i ch e st
p ossi bl e l ongi tud i na l
d e si gn
i n wh i ch a
comp l e te h i stor y
of th e
se que nce
a nd
ti mi ng
of e v e nts i s col l e cte d . A ce ntr a l ch a r a c-
te r i sti c of such
sur v e y d e si gns
i s th a t
th e y nor ma l l y
i nv ol v e conti nuous
moni tor i ng
of th e
p r oce ss
und e r
stud y
(i n our ca se
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our ) a nd ,
to
a ch i e v e
th i s,
p a ne l
me mbe r s a r e
usua l l y
a ske d to
T r a ns. Inst. Br .
Ge ogr .
N.S. 10: 63-76
(1985) ISSN: 0020-2754 P r i nte d i n Gr e a t Br i ta i n
NEIL WRIGLEY ET AL.
r e cor d a l l r e l e v a nt
a sp e cts
of th e i r be h a v i our i n some
f or m of
d i a r y .
For th i s r e a son such
sur v e y s
h a v e
of te n be e n r e f e r r e d to a s
d i a r y sur v e y s by ge ogr a -
p h e r s
a nd
p l a nne r s.
In
p a ne l sur v e y s,
a l l th e usua l e l e me nts of cr oss-
se cti ona l
sur v e y d e si gn
a nd cond uct r e ma i n
i mp or t-
a nt i ssue s
(sa mp l e d e si gn, que sti onna i r e l a y out,
i nte r v i e we r
te ch ni que , r e sp onse
a nd
non-r e sp onse
e r r or
i d e nti f i ca ti on,
a nd so
on) but,
i n
a d d i ti on,
consi d e r a bl e a tte nti on must a l so be
gi v e n
to
p a ne l
r e cr ui tme nt,
to th e r e d ucti on of
p a ne l
a ttr i ti on,
to
p a ne l
r e mune r a ti on,
a nd to th e ma i nte na nce of d a ta
qua l i ty
ov e r
l ong moni tor i ng p e r i od s.
T h e se a r e
some of se v e r a l
me th od ol ogi ca l
i ssue s wh i ch a r e
consi d e r e d i n th i s
p a p e r .
Be f or e
d oi ng
th a t, h owe v e r ,
i t i s
i mp or ta nt
to
p r e f a ce
th e
me th od ol ogi ca l
d i scus-
si on
by
a consi d e r a ti on of th e moti v a ti ons wh i ch
l e a d to th e
i nsti ga ti on
of th e C a r d i f f
p a ne l sur v e y
of
1982.
In
e sse nce ,
th r e e
ma jor
f a ctor s combi ne d to
sugge st
th a t th e
e a r l y
1980s wa s a n
a p p r op r i a te
ti me
f or a ne w a nd e xte nsi v e
p a ne l sur v e y
i n a Br i ti sh
ci ty .
Fi r st,
d ur i ng
th e
p r e v i ous twe nty y e a r s
th e r e h a d
be e n
ma jor
ch a nge s
i n th e Br i ti sh
gr oce r y r e ta i l i ng
i nd ustr y .
T h e substi tuti on of
ca p i ta l
f or l a bour i n
th e
i nd ustr y ,
th e
i ncr e a si ng
sca l e of r e ta i l
uni ts,
th e
d e cl i ne of r e sa l e
p r i ce
ma i nte na nce ,
th e
gr owth
of
'own-br a nd '
tr a d i ng
a nd th e conce ntr a ti on of ma r ke t
sh a r e
a mongst
a sma l l e r a nd sma l l e r numbe r of
f i r ms,
h a d r e sul te d i n a nd /or
a ccomp a ni e d
th e
r a p i d
gr owth
of
ma jor
r e ta i l
cor p or a ti ons
such a s
Sa i nsbur y 's,
T e sco's a nd Asd a . T h e
i ncr e a si ng p r o-
d ucti v i ty
a nd
h e a l th y (some ti me s
sp e cta cul a r )
gr owth
of
p r of i ts
of th e se
f i r ms,
e v e n i n
p e r i od s
of
e conomi c
r e ce ssi on,
h a d
p r ov i d e d
conti nue d
(of te n
e nth usi a sti c)
Stock Ma r ke t
sup p or t,
a nd h a d
h e l p e d
to f i na nce
ma jor
i nv e stme nt
p r ogr a mme s by
th e
l e a d i ng
f i r ms. In th e i r
tur n,
th e se
p r ogr a mme s,
a nd a
some wh a t mor e l i be r a l a tti tud e
by p l a nne r s
to th e
d e v e l op me nt
of
e d ge -of -ci ty sup e r stor e s,
h a d tr a ns-
f or me d th e f a ce of
gr oce r y r e ta i l i ng
a nd
si gni f i ca ntl y
a l te r e d
ty p i ca l p a tte r ns
of
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our f or a
l a r ge p r op or ti on
of th e
p op ul a ti on
of Br i ta i n.
Accomp a ny i ng
th e se
ch a nge s
th e r e h a d a l so be e n a
ma jor
sh i f t i n th e ba l a nce of
p owe r
i n th e
i nd ustr y ,
a wa y f r om
th e ma nuf a ctur e r s of
gr oce r y
i te ms a nd
towa r d s th e
r a p i d l y e xp a nd i ng
r e ta i l
cor p or a ti ons.
Ind e e d ,
th i s sh i f t i n
p owe r
h a d
p r ogr e sse d
so f a r th a t
th e r e l a ti v e
p osi ti ons
of ma nuf a ctur e r s a nd r e ta i l e r s
h a d a l most
comp l e te l y
r e v e r se d f r om th ose
ty p i ca l
i n th e
e a r l y
1960s.
By
th e
e a r l y
1980s,
th e
ma jor
r e ta i l
or ga ni za ti ons
we r e of te n i n a
p osi ti on
to d i c-
ta te th e
p r i ce
l e v e l s a t wh i ch ma nuf a ctur e r s
sup p l i e d
i te ms a nd to
si gni f i ca ntl y
a f f e ct th e succe ss of th e
ma nuf a ctur e r s
l e a d i ng
(a nd
na ti ona l l y a d v e r ti ze d )
br a nd s
by
th e i r
stocki ng p ol i ci e s.
Se cond l y , d e sp i te
th e se ma jor
ch a nge s
a nd th e
r a p i d
i ncr e a se i n th e si ze of th e ma r ke t
a na l y si s
a nd
stor e l oca ti on r e se a r ch uni ts of th e
l a r ge
f i r ms,
th e r e
wa s a
sur p r i si ng
d e a r th of
up -to-d a te
i nf or ma ti on on
th e ch a r a cte r i sti cs of
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our i n th e
Uni te d
Ki ngd om.
Most of th e i nf or ma ti on wh i ch
wa s a v a i l a bl e te nd e d e i th e r to be ti e d to th e ne e d s of
th e ma nuf a ctur e r r a th e r th a n th e r e ta i l e r a nd to l a ck
a d e qua te
l oca ti ona l i nf or ma ti on f or r e ta i l
a na l y si s
a nd
f or e ca sti ng p ur p ose s,
or to be r a th e r d a te d .
T h i r d l y ,
th e
p ote nti a l
be ne f i ts to be
ga i ne d
f r om
th e
a na l y si s
of
p a ne l -d a ta
h a d
si gni f i ca ntl y
i ncr e a se d
i n th e l a te 1970s a nd
e a r l y
1980s. In
p a r t
th i s r e f l e c-
te d th e
gr owth
of
comp uti ng p owe r
a nd
stor a ge
ca p a bi l i ti e s,
so th a t th e
v e r y l a r ge
a mounts of d a ta
wh i ch
p a ne l sur v e y s ty p i ca l l y ge ne r a te
be ca me
much mor e
str a i gh tf or wa r d
to h a nd l e .
P e r h a p s
mor e
i mp or ta nt,
h owe v e r ,
wa s th e f a ct th a t th e
a na l y si s
of
p a ne l
d a ta h a d be come a ma jor r e se a r ch a r e a i n th e
l a te 1970s a cr oss a wi d e
r a nge
of
d i sci p l i ne s,
i ncl ud -
i ng
e conome tr i cs,
soci ol ogy , ma r ke ti ng,
sta ti sti cs
a nd
tr a nsp or ta ti on
r e se a r ch ,
a nd some of th e se
d e v e l op me nts
we r e
be gi nni ng
to be
a p p l i e d
to
ge ogr a p h i ca l p r obl e ms
wh i ch i nv ol v e d mov e me nt
a nd
r e p e a te d
ch oi ce
(P i ckl e s
a nd
Da v i e s, 1984;
Da v i e s a nd
C r ouch l e y , 1985).
T h e
p ote nti a l
th us
e xi ste d to
d e v e l op
a ne w
ge ne r a ti on
of me th od s of
r e ta i l
a na l y si s
a nd
f or e ca sti ng
ba se d
up on p a ne l -
d a ta mod e l s of ur ba n
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our
(se e
Good h a r d t e t a l ., 1984)
a nd i t wa s f e l t th a t th e se
woul d
p r ov i d e i mp or ta nt p r a cti ca l
tool s f or r e ta i l e r s
a nd ur ba n
p l a nne r s.
T h e th r e e f a ctor s d e scr i be d a bov e
p r ov i d e d
th e
r a ti ona l e f or a ne w a nd e xte nsi v e consume r
p a ne l
sur v e y
or i e nte d to th e ne e d s of
ge ogr a p h e r s, p l a n-
ne r s a nd
r e ta i l e r s,
a nd wh i ch woul d conta i n d e ta i l e d
l oca ti ona l i nf or ma ti on on a l l
a sp e cts
of
gr oce r y
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our . It wa s
h op e d
th a t th e
sur v e y
woul d
p r ov i d e
a
ma jor
r e sour ce f or
und e r sta nd i ng
th e na tur e of ur ba n
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our i n Br i ta i n i n
th e
1980s,
th e sca l e a nd
ty p e
of
ch a nge
i n such
be h a v i our si nce th e 1960s a nd
e a r l y
1970s,
a nd f or
th e
d e v e l op me nt
of a ne w
ge ne r a ti on
of me th od s f or
r e ta i l
a na l y si s
a nd
f or e ca sti ng.
T h e C a r d i f f
sur v e y
wa s
d e si gne d
to me e t th e se
r e qui r e me nts
a nd wa s
cond ucte d ov e r th e
p e r i od Ja nua r y
to
Jul y
1982. It i s
be l i e v e d to be th e most
comp r e h e nsi v e p a ne l sur v e y
64
Me th od ol ogi ca l a sp e cts of
th e cond uct
of
a l ong-te r m
p a ne l sur v e y
of ur ba n
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our e v e r ca r r i e d out i n th e
Uni te d
Ki ngd om,
a nd th e d a ta f r om th e
sur v e y
a r e
now a v a i l a bl e to a l l r e se a r ch e r s v i a th e ESRC Da ta
Ar ch i v e a t th e
Uni v e r si ty
of Esse x.
In th i s
p a p e r
a
d e scr i p ti on
a nd cr i ti ca l
a p p r a i sa l
of
th e
d e si gn,
cond uct a nd ch a r a cte r i sti cs of th e C a r d i f f
Sur v e y
i s
p r e se nte d .
It sh oul d be str e sse d th a t th e
p a p e r
d oe s not conta i n
a na l y si s
of th e
sur v e y
d a ta a s
such r e sul ts a r e
p r e se nte d
e l se wh e r e
(e .g. Wr i gl e y
a nd Dunn, 1984a , b, c, 1985;
Dunn a nd
Wr i gl e y ,
1984a , 1985;
Dunn e t
a l ., 1983;
Guy ,
1983, 1984;
Guy
a nd O'Br i e n, 1983;
Wr i gl e y
e t
a l ., 1984).
Inste a d i t se e ks to a nswe r a se r i e s of
me th od ol ogi ca l
que sti ons
wh i ch a r e ce ntr a l to
a ny
e v a l ua ti on of th e
C a r d i f f C onsume r P a ne l d a ta a s a r e sour ce f or
ge ogr a p h i ca l
r e se a r ch .
T HE C ARDIFF SURVEY
At th e
comp l e ti on
of th e C a r d i f f C onsume r P a ne l
Sur v e y ,
conti nuous r e cor d s on a l l
a sp e cts
of
d a i l y
f ood a nd
gr oce r y sh op p i ng
h a d be e n obta i ne d f or
454 h ouse h ol d s ov e r a 24-we e k
p e r i od (Ja nua r y
to
Jul y 1982).
T h e ba si c uni t f or th e se r e cor d s wa s
th e stor e
v i si t,
a nd f or e a ch v i si t to a n i nd i v i d ua l
stor e ma d e
by
a
p a ne l -h ouse h ol d ,
th e
f ol l owi ng
i nf or ma ti on wa s obta i ne d :
-th e na me a nd l oca ti on of th e stor e ,
-th e
ti me , d a y
a nd d a te of th e v i si t,
-mod e of
tr a nsp or t
to th e
stor e ,
-sh op p i ng tr i p or i gi n,
a nd stor e 'tour ' i nf or -
ma ti on
(i .e .
subse que nt
d e sti na ti ons on sa me
sh op p i ng tr i p ),
-a l i st of
p r od ucts p ur ch a se d
a t th e
stor e ,
-th e br a nd s of ce r ta i n
p r od ucts p ur ch a se d ,
-tota l
e xp e nd i tur e
on f ood a nd
gr oce r y p r o-
d ucts a t th e stor e ,
-tota l
e xp e nd i tur e
on
non-f ood /non-gr oce r y
p r od ucts
a t th e
stor e ,
-a n i d e nti f i ca ti on of wh e th e r th e stor e v i si t wa s
ma d e
by
th e
p a ne l l i st,
oth e r h ouse h ol d me m-
be r ,
or non-h ouse h ol d me mbe r .
In
a d d i ti on,
a wi d e
r a nge
of
soci o-e conomi c,
d e mo-
gr a p h i c
a nd a tti tud i na l i nf or ma ti on wa s obta i ne d
d e scr i bi ng
e a ch
p a ne l l i st
a nd h i s/h e r h ouse h ol d ,
p l us
a mor e
l i mi te d ,
but
e xtr e me l y
use f ul ,
r a nge
of i nf or -
ma ti on on
ty p i ca l
stor e
p r i ce s d ur i ng
th e
sur v e y
p e r i od .
T h e ba si c i nf or ma ti on on e a ch stor e v i si t wa s
r e d uce d to one
(some ti me s two)
comp ute r -r e cor d s
of 80 ch a r a cte r s. For th e 24-we e k
p e r i od
th i s
a mounts to a tota l of 83 548
comp ute r -r e cor d s,
cov e r i ng e xp e nd i tur e
of mor e th a n ?4
mi l l i on,
a nd
v i si ts to ov e r 1000 d i f f e r e nt stor e s.
In th e
p e r i od
of two
y e a r s
si nce th e d a ta f r om th e
C a r d i f f
sur v e y
be ca me
a v a i l a bl e ,
th e y
h a v e be e n
use d to
d e v e l op
a nd te st ne w me th od s of r e ta i l
a na l y si s
a nd
f or e ca sti ng
a nd to
stud y
th e
f ol l owi ng
d i v e r se
top i cs:
-p a tte r ns
of
r e p e a t buy i ng
a t i nd i v i d ua l stor e s
(Wr i gl e y
a nd
Dunn, 1984a ;
Dunn e t
a l ., 1983);
-mul ti -stor e
p ur ch a si ng p a tte r ns
a nd th e
i nci d e nce of stor e
swi tch i ng (Wr i gl e y
a nd
Dunn, 1984b);
-th e i nte r a cti on of stor e -ch oi ce a nd br a nd -
ch oi ce
(Wr i gl e y
a nd Dunn, 1984c);
-th e
r e l a ti onsh i p
be twe e n h ouse h ol d i ncome
a nd
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our
(Guy ,
1983);
-Sund a y
a nd
l a te -ni gh t sh op p i ng (Wr i gl e y
e t a l .,
1984);
-th e
d e gr e e
a nd
p a tte r n
of
l oy a l ty
to
gr oce r y
stor e s
(Dunn
a nd
Wr i gl e y ,
1984a );
-th e na tur e of
mul ti -sta ge
a nd
mul ti -p ur p ose
sh op p i ng jour ne y s,
a nd th e i d e nti f i ca ti on of
sh op p i ng
a cti v i ty
bund l e s
(Uncl e s, 1985);
-th e ma r ke t
p e r f or ma nce
of
p a r ti cul a r
stor e s or
stor e
gr oup s (Guy
e t
a l ., 1984;
Dunn a nd
Wr i gl e y ,
1984b);
-th e
usa ge
of
e d ge -of -ci ty
a nd
wi th i n-ci ty
sup e r stor e s (Guy ,
1983, 1984;
Dunn a nd
Wr i gl e y ,
1985);
-comp a r i son
of th e
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our of
wome n
h ol d i ng
f ul l -ti me ,
p a r t-ti me ,
or no
p a i d
e mp l oy me nt
(Uncl e s, 1984);
-comp a r i son
of th e
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our of th e
une mp l oy e d
a nd
e mp l oy e d
i n a
p e r i od
of
r e ce ssi on
(Guy , 1985);
-th e
a na l y si s
of
h ome -sh op p i ng, i ncl ud i ng
mobi l e tr a d e r s a nd
te l e -sh op p i ng
(Uncl e s
a nd
Duca te l , 1984);
-ch a nge s
i n
sh op p i ng tr i p
ch a r a cte r i sti cs si nce
th e
e a r l y
1970s
(Br oom
a nd
Guy ,
1983; Uncl e s,
1985).
Fur th e r mor e , we
e xp e ct
th e se stud i e s to be
onl y
a
sma l l
p a r t
of th e
r e ta i l i ng
a nd consume r r e se a r ch
wh i ch wi l l be ba se d on th i s d a ta ba se ov e r th e ne xt
f i v e to te n
y e a r s,
a nd a numbe r of f ur th e r
p r oje cts
a r e
cur r e ntl y
und e r
wa y i ncl ud i ng
a NSF-f und e d
cr oss-cul tur a l
comp a r i son
of Br i ti sh a nd Ame r i ca n
consume r
sp a ti a l
be h a v i our ,
usi ng
a
sl i gh tl y
mod i -
f i e d v e r si on of th e C a r d i f f
p a ne l sur v e y d e si gn
i n
C a l i f or ni a
(Gol l e d ge
a nd
Wr i gl e y ,
1983).
In
a d d i ti on,
i t i s
a l r e a d y a p p a r e nt
th a t th e d a ta ba se i s
be i ng
uti l i ze d f or th e
p ur p ose s
of ba si c mod e l
65
NEIL WRIGLEY ET AL.
T ABLE I. C h a r a cte r i sti cs
of
some
ge ogr a p h i ca l /p l a nni ng
consume r
p a ne l sur v e y s
P a ne l
P a ne l
Le ngth
Stud y
Loca ti on Si ze
(we e ks)
Ga r r i son e t a l .
(1959)
C e d a r
Ra p i d s,
USA 262 4t
Ma r bl e &
Bowl by (1968)
C e d a r
Ra p i d s,
USA 116 4
Da v i e s
(1973) C ov e ntr y ,
UK 487 1
Roge r s
(1974) P e te r bor ough ,
UK 172 4
Hud son
(1975) Br i stol , UK 89* 10
Ha nson & Ha nson
(1980)
Up p sa l a ,
Swe d e n 296 5
Wr i gl e y
(1980) Br a d f or d , UK 102 20
O'Ke l l y (1981, 1983) Ha mi l ton, C a na d a 704 2
Da ws & McC ul l och
(1974) Wa tf or d , UK 1672 1
Br uce & Ma nn
(1977)
Nor th Lond on, UK 1707 1
Bul l ock e t a l .
(1974) Le i ce ste r , UK 450* 1
Guy
e t a l .
(1983) C a r d i f f , UK 454 24
*a l l
p a ne l l i sts
we r e stud e nts
tmost a na l y se s p e r f or me d
on 99 h ouse h ol d s ov e r 2 we e ks
d e v e l op me nt
a nd
te sti ng by
a numbe r of soci a l
sci e nti sts
(e .g. Ha l p e r i n
e t
a l ., 1984;
Dunn a nd
Wr i gl e y ,
1985;
Da v i e s a nd
P i ckl e s, 1985).
T h e C a r d i f f
sur v e y
d i f f e r s f r om
p r e v i ous
con-
sume r
p a ne l sur v e y s
i n two ma i n
r e sp e cts.
Fi r st,
i n
contr a st to comme r ci a l consume r
p a ne l sur v e y s
i n
th e Uni te d
Ki ngd om
r un
by or ga ni za ti ons
such a s
Aud i ts of Gr e a t Br i ta i n,
Attwood Sta ti sti cs,
Br i ti sh
Ma r ke t Re se a r ch
Bur e a u,
a nd Ma ss Obse r v a ti on
(UK) Ltd ,
i t conta i ns d e ta i l e d l oca ti ona l i nf or ma ti on
on consume r tr a v e l a nd
p ur ch a si ng
be h a v i our wh i ch
th e comme r ci a l
sur v e y s ty p i ca l l y
d o not col l e ct
a nd /or
r e p or t. Se cond l y , comp a r e d
to
p r e v i ous
con-
sume r
p a ne l sur v e y s
ca r r i e d out
by ge ogr a p h e r s
or
p l a nne r s,
a nd wh i ch d o
p r ov i d e
d e ta i l e d l oca ti ona l
i nf or ma ti on,
i t cov e r s a much
l onge r p e r i od
(si x
month s)
wh i ch i s of a si mi l a r
l e ngth
to th a t
e ncounte r e d i n comme r ci a l
sur v e y s.
In
contr a st,
a s
sh own i n T a bl e
I,
p r e v i ous ge ogr a p h i ca l /p l a nni ng
sur v e y s
h a v e te nd e d to be r a th e r r e str i cte d i n te r ms
of
l e ngth
of
moni tor i ng p e r i od
a nd /or
p a ne l
si ze .
T HE P ANEL AC C OUNT ING
EQUAT ION
T o i ntr od uce se v e r a l of th e
i mp or ta nt
i ssue s of
p a ne l
sur v e y me th od ol ogy
use i s ma d e of th e
f ol l owi ng
e qua ti on:
Numbe r of r e cr ui tme nt r a te / a ttr i ti on r a te
h ouse h ol d s x x 1-
sa mp l e d
100 100
Numbe r of Fi na l
p a ne l
-
non-conti nuous
=
use d f or
r e p or te r s a na l y si s
wh i ch we te r m th e consume r
p a ne l a ccounti ng e qua -
ti on. T h e
ke y p a r a me te r s
i n th e
e qua ti on
a r e th e
r e cr ui tme nt r a te a nd a ttr i ti on r a te . T h e r e cr ui tme nt
r a te i s d e f i ne d a s th e
p e r ce nta ge
of h ouse h ol d s sa m-
p l e d
wh o
a gr e e
to be come me mbe r s of th e
p a ne l .
T h e a ttr i ti on r a te i s d e f i ne d a s th e
p e r ce nta ge
of
h ouse h ol d s wh o,
h a v i ng joi ne d
th e
p a ne l ,
f a i l to
r e ma i n me mbe r s of i t f or th e f ul l
moni tor i ng p e r i od
(24
we e ks i n th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y ).
Al so,
p a ne l l i sts
wh o l e a v e th e
p a ne l
f or some
sp e ci f i e d l e ngth
of
ti me ,
a nd th us be come wh a t a r e te r me d 'non-
conti nuous
r e p or te r s',
a r e
usua l l y
e xcl ud e d f r om
th e f i na l
p a ne l
use d f or
a na l y si s
f or r e a sons of
consi ste ncy .
Fi g
1
gi v e s
a
d i a gr a mma ti c r e p r e se nta ti on
of
th e
p r oce ss
of
obta i ni ng
th e f i na l
p a ne l
a nd i ntr o-
d uce s ce r ta i n te r ms use d i n th e
p a p e r .
In th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y
2012 h ouse h ol d s we r e
sa mp l e d usi ng
a
mul ti -sta ge
str a ti f i e d r a nd om
d e si gn.
Of th e se ,
775
we r e not conta cte d or r e f use d to a nswe r a sh or t
'i ni ti a l '
que sti onna i r e
(f or
d e ta i l s se e
be l ow).
Of th e
1237 wh o we r e conta cte d a nd wh o a l so
comp l e te d
th e 'i ni ti a l '
que sti onna i r e ,
605
a gr e e d
to be come
me mbe r s of th e
p a ne l (r e p r e se nti ng
a r e cr ui tme nt
r a te of 30
p e r
ce nt)
a nd 632
(te r me d
th e
'non-p a ne l -
l i sts')
r e f use d . T h e
gr oup
of 605
'p a ne l l i sts'
r e p r e se nts
th e
sta r ti ng
si ze of th e
p a ne l .
Of th e se ,
481 r e ma i ne d me mbe r s of th e
p a ne l
f or th e f ul l
24-we e k
moni tor i ng p e r i od
a nd 124
d r op p e d
out
(r e p r e se nti ng
a n a ttr i ti on r a te of 20
p e r
ce nt).
T h ose
wh o f a i l e d to r e ma i n me mbe r s of th e
p a ne l
we te r m
'd r op -outs'
a nd th ose wh o r e ma i ne d we te r m
'sta y e r s'. Fi na l l y ,
th e r e cor d s of 27 'non-conti nuous
66
Me th od ol ogi ca l a sp e cts of
th e cond uct
of
a l ong-te r m
p a ne l sur v e y
Note :
f i gur e s r e f e r to th e C a r d i f f consume r p a ne l .
FIGURE 1.
Sta ge s
i n th e
p r oce ss
of
obta i ni ng
a consume r
p a ne l
r e p or te r s'
we r e r e mov e d f r om th e d a ta f i l e s
l e a v i ng
a
tota l of 454 'conti nuous
r e p or te r s'
wh ose
p ur ch a si ng
r e cor d s consti tute th e f i na l
p a ne l
d a ta se t use d f or
a na l y si s p ur p ose s.
T ARGET S AND P ILOT SURVEY
Ini ti a l
ta r ge ts
a nd e sti ma te s
T h e f i r st
ste p
i n
a ny p a ne l sur v e y
i s to
sp e ci f y
a
ta r ge t
f or th e si ze of th e f i na l
p a ne l .
In th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y
th e
ta r ge t
wa s a
p a ne l
i n th e
r a nge
450-500
h ouse h ol d s
p r ov i d i ng
conti nuous r e cor d s of
gr oce r y
p ur ch a si ng
ov e r 24 we e ks. T h e numbe r of h ouse -
h ol d s wh i ch must be
sa mp l e d
to me e t such a
ta r ge t
d e p e nd s up on
th r e e cr i ti ca l f a ctor s:
1 th e a ssume d r e cr ui tme nt
r a te ;
2 th e a ssume d a ttr i ti on
r a te ;
3 th e
l i ke l y
numbe r of 'non-conti nuous
r e p or te r s'.
C l ose l y
r e l a te d to th e se th r e e f a ctor s a r e th e
que sti ons:
a h ow be st to
d e si gn
a
'd i a r y '
wi th i n wh i ch i nf or -
ma ti on on
p ur ch a si ng
be h a v i our wi l l be
r e cor d e d ;
b h ow be st to a d mi ni ste r th e
sur v e y
to ma i nta i n
th e
qua l i ty
of th e d a ta .
T h e f i r st e sti ma te s of r e cr ui tme nt r a te a nd
a ttr i ti on r a te f or th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y
we r e 58
p e r
ce nt
a nd 30
p e r
ce nt
r e sp e cti v e l y .
T h e se
f i gur e s
we r e
ba se d
up on
consul ta ti on wi th
a p p r op r i a te
com-
me r ci a l f i r ms a nd
comp a r i son
wi th
p r e v i ous sur v e y s.
Howe v e r , be ca use th e na tur e of th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y
wa s
si gni f i ca ntl y
d i f f e r e nt f r om
p r e v i ous
stud i e s,
a
d e ta i l e d 12-we e k
p i l ot sur v e y
wa s und e r ta ke n to
te st th e se
a ssump ti ons.
T h e
p i l ot sur v e y
wa s a l so
e xtr e me l y
v a l ua bl e i n
i mp r ov i ng
th e
l a y out
of th e
d i a r y
i n wh i ch th e
p a ne l l i sts
r e cor d e d th e i nf or -
ma ti on on th e i r
p ur ch a si ng
be h a v i our ,
a nd i n
te sti ng
th e
sur v e y
a d mi ni str a ti on a nd d a ta
qua l i ty
contr ol
p r oce d ur e s.
Ov e r a l l , th e
i mp or ta nce
of th i s
p i l ot
sur -
v e y
ca nnot be ov e r str e sse d a nd some br i e f d e ta i l s
a r e
ne ce ssa r y (Wr i gl e y
a nd
Guy , 1981).
P i l ot
sur v e y
In th e
p i l ot sur v e y
90
r a nd oml y
se l e cte d h ouse h ol d s
i n two sub-a r e a s of C a r d i f f we r e
sa mp l e d ,
a nd a 32
p e r
ce nt
p a ne l
r e cr ui tme nt r a te wa s a ch i e v e d . In
te r ms of
Fi g
1,
th e r e we r e 29
p a ne l l i sts,
47
non-p a ne l l i sts,
a nd 14 non-conta cts or r e f usa l s to
a nswe r th e 'i ni ti a l '
que sti onna i r e .
T h e
p i l ot sur v e y
th us h a d a
substa nti a l l y
l owe r r e cr ui tme nt r a te th a n
or i gi na l l y e nv i sa ge d
a nd i t
h i gh l i gh te d
th e a r d uous
na tur e of th i s
sta ge
of a
l ong-te r m
consume r
p a ne l
sur v e y .
It a l so
e mp h a si ze d
th a t i n th e ma i n
sur v e y
th e r e cr ui tme nt
sta ge
must be
ca r e f ul l y p r e p a r e d
a nd
a d e qua te l y
coste d ,
a nd sh oul d not be r ush e d i n
a ny
wa y .
T h e
p i l ot sur v e y
r a n f or 12 we e ks
(Se p te mbe r
to
De ce mbe r , 1980)
d ur i ng
wh i ch ti me
onl y
th r e e of
th e 29
p a ne l l i sts d r op p e d
out;
a n a ttr i ti on r a te of
onl y
10
p e r
ce nt. T h i s
sugge ste d
th a t th e r e wa s l i ttl e
sup p or t
f or a
p e ssi mi sti c
v i e w of a
v e r y h i gh
a ttr i ti on r a te i n th e ma i n
sur v e y ,
a nd th a t th e i ni ti a l
e sti ma te of 30
p e r
ce nt f or th e a ttr i ti on r a te ov e r 24
we e ks wa s
h i gh
r a th e r th a n l ow. On th e ba si s of
th e se r e sul ts r e v i se d e sti ma te s of th e r e cr ui tme nt a nd
a ttr i ti on r a te s to be
e xp e cte d
i n th e ma i n
sur v e y
we r e
ma d e ;
th e se we r e 38
p e r
ce nt a nd 25
p e r
ce nt
r e sp e cti v e l y .
T h i s
sugge ste d
th a t a bout 1800 h ouse -
h ol d s ne e d e d to be
sa mp l e d
a t th e f i r st
sta ge
of th e
ma i n
sur v e y
i f th e
ta r ge t
si ze of th e f i na l
p a ne l
wa s
to be a ch i e v e d
succe ssf ul l y .
67
NEIL WRIGLEY ET AL.
T h e
p i l ot sur v e y
a l so
p r ov i d e d
a n
i mp or ta nt
op p or tuni ty
to te st th e
sur v e y
a d mi ni str a ti on,
p a ne l l i st/f i e l d wor ke r
contr ol ,
a nd
p a ne l
r e mune r a -
ti on
p r oce d ur e s
to be use d i n th e ma i n
sur v e y ,
a nd
to ma ke se v e r a l
i mp r ov e me nts
to th e
d e si gn
of th e
we e kl y d i a r y
of
gr oce r y sh op p i ng
be h a v i our
(th e
ba si c d a ta col l e cti on d e v i ce i n th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y ).
In th e l a tte r
conte xt,
p a r ti cul a r
a tte nti on wa s
gi v e n
to th e
l a y out
of th e
d i a r y ,
to th e e l i mi na ti on of
a ny p ossi bl e a mbi gui ti e s,
a nd to th e e l i mi na ti on
of
a ny r e sp onse
bi a s wh i ch
mi gh t
be ca use d
by
th e
a d op ti on
of a
p a r ti cul a r or d e r i ng
of th e l i st of
p r od uct ca te gor i e s
use d to r e cor d
p ur ch a se s.
MAIN SURVEY: REC RUIT MENT P HASE
Sa mp l e d e si gn
T h e ch oi ce of C a r d i f f a s th e l oca ti on of th e consume r
p a ne l
h a d be e n f i xe d a t th e
outse t,
l a r ge l y
f or
p r a g-
ma ti c
r e a sons,
be i ng
of sui ta bl e
si ze ,
conv e ni e nt f or
both
p r i nci p a l i nv e sti ga tor s,
a nd
of f e r i ng
a suf f i -
ci e ntl y h e te r oge ne ous r a nge
of r e ta i l
op p or tuni ti e s,
h ousi ng ty p e s
a nd soci a l sub-a r e a ch a r a cte r i sti cs. In
a d d i ti on,
i t a l so of f e r e d consi d e r a bl e
p ote nti a l
cost
sa v i ngs
a ssoci a te d wi th th e
a v a i l a bi l i ty
of
p r i or
r e se a r ch on th e r e ta i l str uctur e of th e
ci ty ,
a nd
be ca use a n
e xp e r i e nce d
comme r ci a l ma r ke t r e se a r ch
f i r m, Re se a r ch a nd
Ma r ke ti ng
(Wa l e s
a nd th e
We st)
Ltd ,
wh i ch th e
p r i nci p a l i nv e sti ga tor s h op e d
to
e mp l oy
to cond uct th e
sur v e y ,
wa s l oca te d i n th e
ci ty
a nd th us coul d
op e r a te
a t
substa nti a l l y
l owe r
uni t costs.
T h e
e xp e r i e nce
of
p r e v i ous
comme r ci a l
sur v e y s
a nd of th e
p i l ot sur v e y
i nd i ca te d th a t consi d e r a bl e
a d v a nta ge s
we r e to be
ga i ne d by cl uste r i ng p a ne l -
h ouse h ol d s. T h i s r e d uce d
be twe e n-p a ne l l i st jour ne y
ti me s f or th e f i e l d wor ke r s,
a nd
h e l p e d
l e sse n th e
consi d e r a bl e
p r obl e ms
a ssoci a te d wi th
a ttr i buti ng
a
uni que
nume r i ca l cod e to e a ch stor e v i si te d
by
th e
p a ne l l i sts.
As a
r e sul t,
p a ne l -h ouse h ol d s
we r e se l e c-
te d f r om 8 sub-a r e a s of nor th a nd e a st C a r d i f f
(se e
Fi g
2)
v i a a
mul ti -sta ge
str a ti f i e d r a nd om
d e si gn.
T h e 8 sub-a r e a s i ncl ud e d a wi d e
v a r i e ty
of
h ousi ng
ty p e s
wi th i n both th e
p r i v a te
a nd
p ubl i c
se ctor s
of th e
ma r ke t,
a nd we r e
r e p r e se nta ti v e
of a
r a nge
of
l oca ti ona l ,
a cce ssi bi l i ty
a nd soci o-e conomi c
cond i ti ons.
Re cr ui tme nt
p r oce d ur e s
On th e ba si s of th e
p i l ot sur v e y
r e sul ts,
th e
e sti ma te d r e cr ui tme nt a nd a ttr i ti on r a te s f or th e ma i n
sur v e y
i nd i ca te d th a t
a p p r oxi ma te l y
225 h ouse h ol d s
sh oul d be
sa mp l e d
i n e a ch sub-a r e a
(a
tota l of 1800
h ouse h ol d s)
to
p r od uce
a f i na l
p a ne l
si ze of
450-500. In th e
e v e nt,
p a ne l
r e cr ui tme nt i n
Ja nua r y
1982
p r ov e d
to be e v e n mor e a r d uous th a n h a d be e n
e xp e cte d , p r i ma r i l y
be ca use of th e wor st snowf a l l s
f or 50
y e a r s
a nd th e
subse que nt p a r a l y si s
of th e
tr a nsp or t sy ste m
of th e
ci ty .
T h us,
i n f our sub-a r e a s
th e numbe r of h ouse h ol d s
sa mp l e d
h a d to be
i ncr e a se d
sl i gh tl y , l e a d i ng
to th e f i na l
f i gur e
of 2012
h ouse h ol d s
sa mp l e d
(se e
Fi g
1)
a nd a f i na l r e cr ui t-
me nt r a te of 30
p e r
ce nt.
T h e h ouse h ol d s
sa mp l e d
wi th i n e a ch sub-a r e a
we r e
p r e -se l e cte d usi ng
a r a nd om
d e si gn,1
a nd th r e e
v i si ts we r e ma d e a t d i f f e r e nt ti me s of
d a y
be f or e a
h ouse h ol d wa s d e f i ne d a s a non-conta ct. If conta ct
wa s ma d e wi th a
h ouse h ol d ,
a sh or t i nte r v i e w
(te r me d
th e 'i ni ti a l
que sti onna i r e ')
wa s
comp l e te d ,
i f
p ossi bl e ,
wi th th e
p r i nci p a l
f ood a nd
gr oce r y sh op -
p e r .
T h i s conta i ne d a sma l l numbe r of
que sti ons
on
th e soci o-e conomi c a nd
d e mogr a p h i c comp osi ti on,
a nd
sh op p i ng
h a bi ts,
of th e h ouse h ol d . It se r v e d two
i mp or ta nt p ur p ose s:
a to e sta bl i sh th e cr e d e nti a l s of th e f i e l d wor ke r
a nd a
r e l a ti onsh i p
wi th th e
r e sp ond e nt.
A bl unt
r e que st
f r om a
str a nge r
(or by l e tte r )
to be come
a
p a ne l l i st,
wi th out
a ny p r i or
d i scussi on,
woul d
h a v e a l most
a l wa y s
be e n
unsucce ssf ul ;
b to
p r ov i d e
ba si c i nf or ma ti on a bout
p a ne l l i sts
a nd th e i r h ouse h ol d s,
a nd to a l l ow
comp a r i sons
to be ma d e be twe e n
p a ne l l i sts
a nd th ose unwi l -
l i ng
to be come
p a ne l l i sts
(th e
so-ca l l e d
'non-p a ne l l i sts'-se e Fi g
I a nd d i scussi on
be l ow).
On
comp l e ti on
of th e
i nte r v i e w,
th e
r e sp ond e nt
wa s a ske d i f h e /sh e woul d be
wi l l i ng
to
h e l p
wi th
d i a r y comp l e ti on
'ov e r th e ne xt f e w month s'. T h ose
wi l l i ng
to
p a r ti ci p a te
we r e r e v i si te d th e
f ol l owi ng
we e k,
a nd a s
ma ny
a s
p ossi bl e
we r e r e cr ui te d to th e
p a ne l .
At th a t
ti me ,
th e
p r oce ss
of
d i a r y comp l e ti on
wa s
f ul l y e xp l a i ne d ,
a nd i t wa s
e mp h a si ze d
th a t a
sma l l
p a y me nt
(?4)
woul d be ma d e
e v e r y
f our
we e ks i f th e d i a r i e s h a d be e n
comp l e te d p r op e r l y
ov e r th a t
p e r i od .
Once th e
r e sp ond e nt
h a d
a gr e e d
to
p a r ti ci p a te
h e /sh e wa s
gi v e n
th e f i r st
d i a r y ,
v a r i ous
note s to
h e l p d i a r y comp l e ti on,
a nd a f ol d e r of
i nf or ma ti on a bout th e
sur v e y .
T h e
f ol l owi ng
we e k,
a l l
p a ne l l i sts
we r e r e v i si te d so th a t th e f i r st
we e k d i a r i e s coul d be col l e cte d a nd
ch e cke d ,
a nd
a r r a nge me nts
f or
subse que nt f or tni gh tl y
f i e l d wor ke r
v i si ts we r e ma d e .
68
Me th od ol ogi ca l a sp e cts of
th e cond uct
of
a
l ong-te r m p a ne l sur v e y
Ke y
to Di str i ct
C e ntr e s
1
C ounti sbur y Av e nue 2 Ma e l f a 3 Le o's, Sp l ott 4
Al ba ny
Roa d 5
C r wy s Roa d
6 Wh i tch ur ch Roa d 7
Me r th y r Roa d 8
C owbr i d ge Roa d Ea st 9C l a r e Roa d 10
Hoe l -y -d e r i
FIGURE 2. Loca ti on of
stud y
a r e a s i n C a r d i f f
MAIN SURVEY: MONIT ORING P HASE
T h e
'r unni ng-i n'
p e r i od
T h e sta nd a r d comme r ci a l
p r a cti ce
i n
l ong-te r m
con-
sume r
p a ne l sur v e y s
i s to h a v e a
'r unni ng-i n' p e r i od
be f or e th e sta r t of th e ma i n
moni tor i ng p e r i od .
In th e
C a r d i f f
sur v e y
a two-we e k
'r unni ng-i n' p e r i od
wa s
use d ,
d ur i ng
wh i ch
p e r i od p a ne l l i sts comp l e te d
d i a r i e s but f or wh i ch th e i nf or ma ti on obta i ne d wa s
not cod e d or use d f or
a na l y si s p ur p ose s.
T h i s
p e r i od
a l l owe d th e f i e l d wor ke r s to ch e ck
th r ough
th e f i r st
comp l e te d
d i a r i e s wi th th e
p a ne l l i sts
i n d e ta i l a nd to
p oi nt
out a nd cor r e ct
a ny i d i osy ncr a ti c r e cor d i ng
e r r or s be f or e such e r r one ous
p r a cti ce s
be ca me
e sta bl i sh e d . In a d d i ti on, th e se d i a r i e s we r e ch e cke d
i n d e ta i l
by sup e r v i sor y
sta f f a t Re se a r ch a nd
Ma r ke ti ng
Ltd so th a t f i e l d wor ke r d e f i ci e nci e s coul d
a l so be cor r e cte d .
69
NEIL WRIGLEY ET AL.
T h i s
'r unni ng-i n' p e r i od p r ov e d
to be a n i mme n-
se l y
use f ul
a d justme nt p e r i od
i n wh i ch i ni ti a l
p r obl e ms
coul d be
ov e r come ,
th e
comp osi ti on
of
th e
p a ne l
coul d be
f i ne l y
tune d
(a
sma l l numbe r of
p a ne l l i sts
we r e a l so r e cr ui te d i n th i s
p e r i od ),
a nd
sup e r v i sor y sy ste ms
coul d be te ste d . It i s th e f i r m
be l i e f of th e a uth or s th a t such
p e r i od s
of f e r
ma jor
be ne f i ts i n
p a ne l sur v e y s, (i )
i n te r ms of
i mp r ov i ng
d a ta
qua l i ty
a nd
p a ne l comp osi ti on,
a nd
(i i )
be ca use
th e y
a l l ow th e r e se a r ch e r to a v oi d
unne ce ssa r y
(a nd
e xp e nsi v e ) cod i ng, e d i ti ng
a nd
comp ute r
f i l e
cr e a ti on f or th e substa nti a l numbe r of
p a ne l l i sts
wh o
ca n be
e xp e cte d
to l e a v e th e
p a ne l
wi th i n th e
'r unni ng-i n' p e r i od ,
of te n a f te r
h a v i ng p r od uce d
l ow
qua l i ty
i nf or ma ti on f or
just
a f e w
d a y s. (Such
p a ne l l i sts
a r e te r me d 'i mme d i a te
d r op -outs'
a nd we
comp a r e
th e i r ch a r a cte r i sti cs to th e 'l a te r
d r op -outs',
'sta y e r s'
a nd
'non-p a ne l l i sts'
be l ow).
Attr i ti on r a te
As note d
a bov e ,
th e a ttr i ti on r a te i n th e ma i n
sur v e y
wa s 20
p e r
ce nt
(be tte r
th a n
e sti ma te d )
a nd
Fi g
3
summa r i ze s th e
p a tte r n
of
p a ne l
a ttr i ti on ov e r ti me .
T h i s
gr a p h
f ol l ows th e cl a ssi ca l
p a tte r n
wi th a
l a r ge
numbe r of
d r op -outs
i n th e
'r unni ng-i n' p e r i od
a nd
i n th e
e a r l y
we e ks of th e ma i n
moni tor i ng p e r i od .
In
f a ct,
62
p e r
ce nt of
p a ne l
a ttr i ti on h a d ta ke n
p l a ce
by
th e e nd of th e f i r st we e k of th e ma i n
moni tor i ng
p e r i od ,
a nd f r om th e th i r d we e k onwa r d s th e
a v e r a ge we e kl y
l oss wa s
onl y
1-7
p a ne l l i sts.
T e ch ni que s of
a ttr i ti on contr ol
T h e r a te of a ttr i ti on a ch i e v e d i n
p a ne l sur v e y s
i s
d i r e ctl y
r e l a te d to th e a tte nti on d e v ote d to th e
i ssue s of
p a ne l
r e cr ui tme nt,
p a ne l
contr ol ,
p a ne l
r e mune r a ti on a nd f i e l d wor ke r contr ol . In th e
or i gi na l
d e si gn
of th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y
consi d e r a bl e ca r e
wa s d e v ote d to th e se
i ssue s,
a nd th e
p i l ot sur v e y
conf i r me d th e i r
i mp or ta nce .
In
summa r y ,
si x
p oi nts
a p p e a r
to be
i mp or ta nt
i f
p a ne l
a ttr i ti on i s to be
ke p t
to a mi ni mum.
T h e
f r e que ncy
a nd na tur e
of
v i si ts
by
f i e l d wor ke r s
to
p a ne l
me mbe r s T h e C a r d i f f
sur v e y a d op te d
a
f or tni gh tl y p a tte r n
of f i e l d wor ke r v i si ts to col l e ct
d i a r i e s,
a nd
p a ne l l i sts
r e ta i ne d th e sa me f i e l d -
wor ke r
th r ough out
th e
sur v e y .
T h i s
p a tte r n
of v i si ts
i nv ol v e d th e use of 15 f i e l d wor ke r s a nd wa s
e xp e ns-
i v e , but i t wa s v i ta l to th e succe ss of th e
sur v e y .
P a ne l l i sts soon bui l d
up
a
r e l a ti onsh i p
wi th th e i r
f i e l d wor ke r s wh i ch th e n se r v e s to r e d uce a ttr i ti on
si gni f i ca ntl y .
In a d d i ti on,
f i e l d wor ke r s
p l a y
a n
Runni ng-i n I
p e ,i od ,
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2 24
We e k numbe r
FIGURE 3. T h e
p a tte r n
of
p a ne l
a ttr i ti on ov e r ti me
i mp or ta nt
e d uca ti ona l r ol e
(e sp e ci a l l y
i n th e
e a r l y
sta ge s
of th e
sur v e y )
a nd i f
th e y
a r e we l l tr a i ne d a nd
contr ol l e d th i s
si gni f i ca ntl y i mp r ov e s
th e
qua l i ty
of
th e
d i a r y
i nf or ma ti on obta i ne d .
T h e
d e si gn
a nd ti me
sp a n of
th e
d i a r y
T h e
l a y out
of
th e
d i a r y
sh oul d ma ke i t a s
e a sy
a s
p ossi bl e
f or
p a ne l l i sts
to
sup p l y
th e
r e qui r e d
i nf or ma ti on,
a nd i n
th i s
r e sp e ct
a numbe r of
i mp r ov e me nts
we r e ma d e
on th e ba si s of r e a cti ons f r om
p a ne l l i sts
to th e
d i a r y
use d i n th e
p i l ot sur v e y .
A se cond
i mp or ta nt
f a ctor
wa s th e d e ci si on to use
we e kl y (r a th e r
th a n
f or tni gh tl y
or
month l y )
d i a r i e s.
Aga i n,
th i s i ncr e a se d
th e cost of th e
sur v e y
but i t:
(i )
r e sul te d i n a
d i a r y
th a t wa s l e ss
d a unti ng
i n
si ze ;
(i i ) a l l owe d mor e e f f e cti v e of f i ce contr ol ,
i ncl ud -
i ng
a we e k
by
we e k
ch e cki ng
of a ttr i ti on
r a te s,
qua l i ty
of
r e p or ti ng,
a nd
p a ne l l i st
or
f i e l d wor ke r
p r obl e ms;
(i i i )
r e d uce d th e r i sk of
'sl i p p a ge '
i n th e com-
p l e ti on
of th e
d i a r y by
th e
p a ne l l i sts,
r e sul t-
i ng
i n und e si r a bl e
'comp l e ti on by
r e ca l l ',
or
p ossi bl y
wi th d r a wa l f r om th e
sur v e y .
C a r e f ul
p a ne l r e cr ui tme nt
by
tr a i ne d a nd
e xp e r i e nce d f i e l d wor ke r s
As note d a bov e ,
th e
r e cr ui tme nt
p h a se
i s
a r gua bl y
th e most a r d uous
p h a se
of such
sur v e y s.
It i s a
p h a se
th a t sh oul d not
be r ush e d i n
a ny wa y ,
a nd wh i ch must be
ca r e f ul l y
p r e p a r e d
a nd
a d e qua te l y
coste d . Once
a ga i n
th e
ma i n
sur v e y
be ne f i te d
consi d e r a bl y
f r om th e
e xp e r i e nce
of th e
p i l ot sur v e y .
Sui ta bl e
p a ne l
r e mune r a ti on a nd i nce nti v e s P r e v i ous
stud i e s h a v e sh own th a t ca sh r e wa r d s to
p a ne l
70
600-
580-
E
560-
-6540-
a i
Z 520-
500-
480-
Me th od ol ogi ca l a sp e cts of
th e cond uct
of
a
l ong-te r m p a ne l sur v e y
me mbe r s
und oubte d l y
r e d uce
p a ne l
a ttr i ti on. In
th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y p a ne l l i sts
r e ce i v e d ?4 a t th e
e nd of e a ch f our we e k
p e r i od
f or wh i ch d i a r i e s h a d
be e n
succe ssf ul l y comp l e te d , p l us
a ?1 bonus f or
r e ma i ni ng
on th e
p a ne l
f or th e f ul l 24 we e ks. Wh i l st
such l i mi te d f i na nci a l i nce nti v e s d i d not r e ta i n
p a ne l
me mbe r s wh o h a d be come
se r i ousl y
d i sa f f e cte d ,
th e y ce r ta i nl y
i nf l ue nce d
ma r gi na l
ca se s
a nd ,
p e r h a p s
mor e
i mp or ta ntl y , ga v e
th e
ma jor i ty
of
p a ne l l i sts
th e
se nse of
d oi ng
a
job
wh i ch wa s 'v a l ue d '.
An a d d i ti ona l i nce nti v e wa s
p r ov i d e d
i n th e f or m
of a se r i e s of l e tte r s f r om Re se a r ch a nd
Ma r ke ti ng
Ltd
(se e Guy
e t a l ., 1983).
T h e se
e xp l a i ne d
th e
p ur p ose
of th e
stud y , e ncour a ge d p a ne l l i sts
to
r e ma i n to th e e nd of th e
moni tor i ng p e r i od
once
th e y
we r e
th r e e -qua r te r s
of th e
wa y th r ough ,
a nd ,
i n
ge ne r a l , e ncour a ge d
th e m to ta ke a n i nte r e st i n
p a r ti ci p a ti on.
Fi e l d wor ke r contr ol In
l ong-te r m p a ne l sur v e y s
th e r e i s a
d a nge r
th a t f i e l d wor ke r s a s we l l a s
p a ne l
me mbe r s wi l l
be gi n
to l ose
i nte r e st,
a nd th a t th e
qua l i ty
of th e
sur v e y
wi l l
be gi n
to d e cl i ne . For th i s
r e a son,
i t i s e sse nti a l th a t f i e l d wor ke r s a r e
cl ose l y
sup e r v i se d
a nd
ge ne r a l l y e ncour a ge d th r ough out
th e
sur v e y p e r i od .
In th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y
f i e l d wor ke r s
we r e
sup e r v i se d by
Re se a r ch a nd
Ma r ke ti ng
Ltd a nd
we r e i n
r e gul a r
a nd
f r e que nt p e r sona l
conta ct wi th
th e f i e l d wor k
sup e r v i sor
a nd of f i ce sta f f .
C omp l e te d
d i a r i e s we r e e xa mi ne d
by
th e of f i ce
sta f f ,
a nd
e a ch f i e l d wor ke r wa s
gi v e n
l i sts of th e
r e ma i ni ng
e r r or s ma d e
by
h i s/h e r
p a ne l l i sts.
In th i s
wa y
d a ta
qua l i ty
wa s
conti nuousl y
moni tor e d a nd ma i nta i ne d
th r ough
a
p r oce ss
of
sup e r v i sor /f i e l d wor ke r /
p a ne l l i st
f e e d ba ck.
T h e se r v i ce s
of
a
p r of e ssi ona l
ma r ke t r e se a r ch
or ga ni za ti on Long-te r m p a ne l sur v e y s
d e ma nd a
l a r ge
numbe r of tr a i ne d a nd
e xp e r i e nce d
f i e l d wor -
ke r s,
sup e r v i sor s,
d a ta
cod e r s,
p r oce ssi ng
contr ol l e r s
a nd so on. T h e C a r d i f f
sur v e y
be ne f i te d
consi d e r a bl y
f r om th e se r v i ce s of a
p r of e ssi ona l or ga ni za ti on
wh i ch h a d th e
ne ce ssa r y e xp e r ti se
a nd
e xp e r i e nce
i n th i s
a r e a ,
a nd wh i ch wa s commi tte d to th e
r e qui r e -
me nts of a n a ca d e mi c
p r oje ct.
In te r ms of cost-
e f f e cti v e ne ss a nd d a ta
qua l i ty
th e l oca ti on of th i s
or ga ni za ti on
wi th i n th e
stud y
a r e a i tse l f wa s a l so
e xtr e me l y i mp or ta nt.
In th e a uth or s' v i e w th i s use of
a
p r of e ssi ona l or ga ni za ti on
i s e sse nti a l to th e succe ss
of a
l ong-te r m p a ne l sur v e y . Al th ough
i t
ma y ,
a t
f i r st,
a p p e a r
to be
unne ce ssa r i l y e xp e nsi v e ,
i t wi l l
ge ne r a l l y
be une conomi c a nd i ne f f i ci e nt to
a tte mp t
to ta ke on such a ta sk 'i n-h ouse ' a nd to
a tte mp t
to
se t
up
such a n
or ga ni za ti on
f or th e
p ur p ose s
of a
si ngl e
a ca d e mi c
p r oje ct.
T h e se cond
que sti onna i r e
Dur i ng
th e mi d d l e we e ks of th e ma i n
moni tor i ng
p e r i od
th ose h ouse h ol d s wh o we r e sti l l me mbe r s of
th e
p a ne l
we r e a ske d to
comp l e te
a much mor e
d e ta i l e d
que sti onna i r e r e l a ti ng
to th e i r
d e mogr a p h i c
a nd soci o-e conomi c ch a r a cte r i sti cs a nd th e i r
a tti tud e s to
sh op p i ng
(f or
f ur th e r d e ta i l s se e
Guy
e t
a l ., 1983,
p p .
89-108).
Si nce ce r ta i n
ty p e s
of
a na l y si s
of th e
p a ne l
d a ta
r e qui r e
i nf or ma ti on d e r i v e d f r om
th i s
que sti onna i r e
(f or
e xa mp l e
th e
r e l a ti onsh i p
be twe e n obse r v e d
sh op p i ng
h a bi ts a nd h ouse h ol d
ch a r a cte r i sti cs),
a
h i gh r e sp onse
r a te wa s e sse nti a l . In
th e
e v e nt,
a
r e sp onse
r a te of 98
p e r
ce nt wa s
a ch i e v e d ,
wh i ch wa s
l a r ge l y
d ue to th e
ti mi ng
of th e
que sti onna i r e . By
th e mi d d l e we e ks of th e ma i n
moni tor i ng p e r i od
most
p a ne l l i sts
h a d
d e v e l op e d
a
p e r sona l
commi tme nt to th e i r f i e l d wor ke r ,
we r e
ta ki ng
a n a cti v e i nte r e st i n
comp l e ti ng
th e i r
d i a r i e s,
a nd we r e th us
wi l l i ng
to f i l l i n a n a d d i ti ona l
que sti onna i r e .
In
a d d i ti on,
a f ur th e r sma l l ca sh i nce n-
ti v e wa s of f e r e d to
p a ne l l i sts
f or th e i r
p a r ti ci p a ti on
i n th e se cond
que sti onna i r e .
Sup p l e me nta r y i nf or ma ti on
Gi v e n th e
l a r ge
costs a nd
l ong sta r t-up
ti me s
i nv ol v e d i n
mounti ng
a
l ong-te r m
consume r
p a ne l
sur v e y
i t i s
i mp or ta nt
th a t sma l l e r l owe r -cost
p r oj-
e cts be co-or d i na te d wi th th e ma i n
moni tor i ng
p e r i od .
In th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y ,
th e two most
i mp or t-
a nt of th e se we r e a
sur v e y
of
gr oce r y p r i ce s
i n stor e s
f r e que nte d by
th e
p a ne l l i sts (Guy
a nd
O'Br i e n,
1983),
a nd th e col l e cti on of i nf or ma ti on on stor e s
v i si te d
by
th e
p a ne l l i sts, i ncl ud i ng
d e ta i l s of owne r -
sh i p ,
stor e
ty p e ,
e xa ct
l oca ti on,
good s
sol d ,
a nd
f l oor sp a ce
(se e Guy
e t a l ., 1983,
p p .
126-33,
155-57).
In
a d d i ti on,
a ca r e f ul
scr uti ny
of th e l oca l
p r e ss
wa s ma i nta i ne d f or
a ny
e v e nts
l i ke l y
to i nf l ue nce
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our ,
such a s
ma jor p r omoti ons
i nv ol v i ng
stor e s i n
C a r d i f f ,
i nci d e nts
a f f e cti ng
a cce ssi bi l i ty
to
sh op p i ng
ce ntr e s,
a nd th e
op e ni ng
or
owne r sh i p ch a nge s
of stor e s. In
f a ct,
such e v e nts d i d
ta ke
p l a ce d ur i ng
th e ma i n
moni tor i ng p e r i od
of th e
sur v e y
a nd th i s
ty p e
of
sup p l e me nta r y
i nf or ma ti on
ma y
be
i mp or ta nt
i n
sugge sti ng
r e se a r ch
top i cs
a nd /or i n th e
i nte r p r e ta ti on
of ce r ta i n
a sp e cts
of
r e cor d e d be h a v i our .
71
NEIL WRIGLEY ET AL.
REMOVAL OF NON-C ONT INUOUS
REP ORT ERS
T h e sta nd a r d comme r ci a l
p r a cti ce
i s to r e mov e
f or
a na l y si s p ur p ose s
th ose
p a ne l l i sts
wh o h a v e
'una cce p ta bl e ' ga p s
i n th e
conti nui ty
of th e i r
p ur -
ch a si ng
r e cor d s.
Howe v e r ,
th e r e i s l i ttl e conce nsus
on th e d e f i ni ti on of
'una cce p ta bl e ', e xce p t
th a t
a bse nce s of occa si ona l
d a y s,
we e ke nd s or
p e r i od s
of
l e ss th a n a we e k a r e
a cce p ta bl e .
In th e se
si tua ti ons,
th e
p a ne l l i sts
a r e
l i ke l y
to
a d just
th e i r
we e kl y p a tte r n
of
p ur ch a si ng
to
comp e nsa te
a nd ca n be
r e ga r d e d
a s
just
'not
buy i ng a ny th i ng'
on th e
d a y s
of a bse nce .
In th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y ,
d e ta i l e d r e cor d s we r e
ke p t
f or e a ch
p a ne l
me mbe r of d i a r i e s
sa ti sf a ctor i l y
comp l e te d , d a y s
of
h ol i d a y
ta ke n,
mi ssi ng
d i a r i e s,
a nd so on. At th e e nd of th e
moni tor i ng p e r i od
th e i nf or ma ti on wa s summa r i ze d i n th e f or m of a
p a ne l l i sts-by -we e k
ma tr i x,
a nd 'conti nuous' a nd
'non-conti nuous'
r e p or te r s
we r e i d e nti f i e d
usi ng
th e
most
r i gor ous a p p r oa ch
i n cur r e nt comme r ci a l
p r a c-
ti ce
(p l us
th e a d d i ti on of ce r ta i n e xtr a mor e
str i nge nt
cr i te r i a -se e
Guy
e t
a l ., 1983,
p p .
134-38 f or
d e ta i l s).
On th i s
ba si s,
27
p a ne l l i sts
we r e d e f i ne d a s
'non-conti nuous'
r e p or te r s
(i n most ca se s be ca use
th e y
took a n a nnua l
h ol i d a y
of mor e th a n 15
d a y s
d ur i ng
th e
moni tor i ng p e r i od ).
T h i s l e f t a
p a ne l
of
454 'conti nuous'
r e p or te r s,
82
p e r
ce nt
(371)
of
wh i ch h a d no a bse nce s of mor e th a n se v e n
d a y s
a nd
41
p e r
ce nt
(185)
of wh i ch h a d not e v e n a
si ngl e d a y
a wa y
f r om h ome
d ur i ng
th e
moni tor i ng p e r i od .
One of th e
ma jor
f a ctor s
i nf l ue nci ng
th e numbe r
of non-conti nuous
r e p or te r s
i s
cl e a r l y
th e
ti mi ng
of
th e
sur v e y
i n r e l a ti on to
ma jor h ol i d a y p e r i od s.
In
th e
UK,
th e
op ti mum ti mi ng
f or a si x-month
p a ne l
sur v e y
i s th us f r om
Ja nua r y
to
e a r l y Jul y
si nce th i s
a v oi d s th e
ma jor h ol i d a y p e r i od s
of C h r i stma s a nd
l a te -Jul y /August.
Sh or te r te r m
p a ne l s
wi l l a l so
be ne f i t f r om
a v oi d i ng
th e se
p e r i od s
a nd oth e r l e ss
i mp or ta nt
one s such a s Ea ste r .
DAT A
QUALIT Y
Huma n
ge ogr a p h e r s
f a mi l i a r wi th th e
r e sp onse
a nd
non-r e sp onse
e r r or
p r obl e ms
of cr oss-se cti ona l or
sh or t-te r m
p a ne l sur v e y s ma y , i ni ti a l l y ,
f i nd i t r a th e r
d i f f i cul t to
a cce p t
th a t th e
qua l i ty
of d a ta
sup p l i e d
i n
l ong-te r m p a ne l sur v e y s
ca n be ma i nta i ne d ov e r
l e ngth y moni tor i ng p e r i od s. T h e y ma y
be l i e v e th a t
p a ne l l i sts
wi l l
r a p i d l y
be come bor e d
by
th e ta sk
a nd wi l l th us
sup p l y p oor qua l i ty
or e v e n f a br i ca te d
d a ta ,
th a t f i e l d wor ke r
moti v a ti on/p e r f or ma nce ma y
d e cl i ne ,
a nd th a t th e sh e e r si ze of th e ta sk wi l l
i ne v i ta bl y
r e sul t i n
l a r ge r
e r r or
p r obl e ms
th a n nor -
ma l a t th e d a ta
e d i ti ng/cod i ng,
f i l e cr e a ti on
sta ge .
Esse nti a l l y ,
th e r e a r e two
ty p e s
of
r e sp onse
to such
be l i e f s.
Fi r st,
th e
p r oce d ur e s a d op te d
to ma i nta i n
d a ta
qua l i ty
ca n be
e xp ose d
to cr i ti ca l
a p p r a i sa l .
Se cond ,
summa r y
me a sur e s of th e i nf or ma ti on
obta i ne d f r om th e
p a ne l
ca n be
comp a r e d ,
f or con-
si ste ncy ,
to th e r e sul ts of oth e r
sur v e y s
a nd
a na l y se s.
T e ch ni que s of qua l i ty
contr ol
T h e
p r oce d ur e s ne ce ssa r y
to ma i nta i n th e
qua l i ty
of
d a ta
sup p l i e d by
th e
p a ne l l i sts
ov e r a
l ong
moni tor -
i ng p e r i od ,
a nd to ma i nta i n f i e l d wor ke r moti v a ti on/
p e r f or ma nce ,
a r e
e sse nti a l l y
th ose
r e qui r e d
to r e d uce
p a ne l
a ttr i ti on
(d i scusse d a bov e )
a nd
th e y
ne e d not
be
r e p e a te d
h e r e .
T h e y
a r e ma tte r s wh i ch must be
r e v i e we d i n
d e ta i l ,
a nd on wh i ch d e ci si ons must be
ta ke n,
a t th e
d e si gn sta ge . Dur i ng
th e cour se of th e
sur v e y ,
d a ta
qua l i ty
i s ma i nta i ne d
by i mp l e me nti ng
th e se
p r oce d ur e s
a s
r i gor ousl y
a s
p ossi bl e ,
but
wi th
se nsi ti v i ty
a t a l l ti me s to th e cr uci a l i ssue s
of
f i e l d wor ke r -p a ne l l i st
conta ct a nd f i e l d wor ke r -
sup e r v i sor
contr ol .
Ov e r a l l ,
th e r e i s
si mp l y
no sub-
sti tute f or a te a m of
e xp e r i e nce d ,
we l l -br i e f e d a nd
h i gh l y
moti v a te d f i e l d wor ke r s wh o v i si t
p a ne l l i sts
a nd ch e ck th e i r d i a r i e s a t l e a st
e v e r y f or tni gh t,
a nd
wh o a r e ba cke d
up by
a
sup e r v i sor y sy ste m
wh i ch
moni tor s th e i r
p e r f or ma nce , p r ov i d e s
th e
ne ce ssa r y
a d v i ce a nd
e ncour a ge me nt,
a nd ma i nta i ns con-
ti nuous f e e d ba ck f r om of f i ce to f i e l d wor ke r s to
p a ne l l i sts
a nd v i ce v e r sa .
Wh a te v e r th e
p r oce d ur e s a d op te d ,
h owe v e r ,
a nd
d e sp i te
a l l th e e f f or ts of th e
f i e l d wor ke r s,
i t i s i ne v i t-
a bl e th a t occa si ona l
r e sp onse
e r r or s
(i ncor r e ct
r e cor d i ng,
omi ssi on of
i nf or ma ti on,
ov e r -r e p or ti ng
a nd so on-se e
Sud ma n, 1964)
wi l l occur . Ne v e r th e -
l e ss,
th e r e i s no e v i d e nce th a t th e
ma gni tud e
of th e se
e r r or s i s
a ny gr e a te r
i n we l l -cond ucte d
l ong-te r m
p a ne l sur v e y s
th a n i n cr oss-se cti ona l or sh or t-te r m
p a ne l sur v e y s.
As
Eh r e nbe r g
(1972,
p .
8)
h a s note d :
P a ne l me mbe r s be come
e xp e r i e nce d
i n
ke e p i ng
th e i r
r e cor d s i f
th e y
conti nue to
co-op e r a te ,
a nd i t se e ms th a t
th e e f f i ci e nt a nd
sa ti sf y i ng wa y
of
f i l l i ng
out a
d i a r y
e a ch we e k i s to
tr y
a nd d o so mor e or l e ss
cor r e ctl y .
Of cour se , th e r e wi l l
a l wa y s
be a sma l l numbe r of
p a ne l l i sts
wh o
p e r si ste ntl y p r ov i d e
wh a t a r e
obv i ousl y i na d e qua te
r e cor d s of th e i r
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our .
Howe v e r ,
such
p a ne l l i sts
a r e
r e a d i l y
i d e n-
ti f i e d a nd ca n be r e mov e d f r om th e
p a ne l by
th e
sup e r v i sor y
sta f f . In th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y , onl y
se v e n
72
Me th od ol ogi ca l a sp e cts of
th e cond uct
of
a
l ong-te r m
p a ne l sur v e y
p a ne l l i sts
we r e
d r op p e d
f r om th e
p a ne l d ur i ng
th e
ma i n
moni tor i ng p e r i od
f or th i s r e a son.
A f ur th e r f e a tur e of th e
qua l i ty
contr ol
p r oce d ur e s
a d op te d
i n th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y
wh i ch i s
p a r ti cul a r l y
wor th y
of
note , wa s th e d e ci si on to sub-contr a ct th e
tr a nsf e r of e d i te d a nd cod e d d i a r i e s to
comp ute r
ta p e s
to a
se p a r a te
a nd
sp e ci a l i ze d comp uti ng
f i r m
(DC MS Ltd )
wi th
gr e a te r e xp e r ti se
i n th e
d e si gn
a nd
i mp l e me nta ti on
of
l a r ge
e r r or
ch e cki ng
r outi ne s.
T h i s d e ci si on e na bl e d mor e th a n 30
consi ste ncy ,
r a nge
a nd
l ogi c
ch e cks to be
sp e ci a l l y d e si gne d
a nd
to be
p e r f or me d
a t th e
p oi nt
of tr a nsf e r of th e e d i te d
a nd cod e d d i a r i e s to
comp ute r ta p e s.
As
such ,
i t
p r ov i d e d
a
comp l e me nta r y
a nd
i nd e p e nd e nt
l e v e l
of e r r or d e te cti on to th a t
p e r f or me d
i n-h ouse
by
Re se a r ch a nd
Ma r ke ti ng
Ltd
d ur i ng
th e
d i a r y e d i ti ng
a nd
cod i ng sta ge s.
Er r or s i d e nti f i e d
by
DC MS Ltd
we r e
r e p or te d
ba ck to th e sta f f of Re se a r ch a nd
Ma r ke ti ng,
wh o th e n r e tur ne d to th e
or i gi na l d i a r y
to ch e ck ma tte r s of d e ta i l .
Any
a me nd me nts wh i ch
we r e th e n f ound to be
ne ce ssa r y
we r e ma d e to both
th e
comp ute r ta p e s
a nd th e
or i gi na l
d i a r i e s.
Ov e r a l l ,
a
r e l a ti v e l y h i gh p r op or ti on
of th e
bud ge t
of th e
C a r d i f f
sur v e y (wh e n
comp a r e d
to
p r e v i ous p a ne l
sur v e y s)
wa s a l l oca te d to th e e r r or
ch e cki ng p r oce ss.
Howe v e r ,
i t i s th e a uth or s' v i e w th a t e xte nsi v e a nd
sp e ci a l i ze d
e r r or d e te cti on
sy ste ms
of th i s
ty p e ,
a l th ough
e xp e nsi v e
to
d e si gn
a nd
op e r a te ,
a r e v i ta l
to th e succe ss of
comp l e x sur v e y s
wh i ch
p r od uce
v e r y l a r ge
a mounts of d a ta .
C onsi ste ncy
ch e cks
In comme r ci a l ma r ke t r e se a r ch th e r e i s a
l ong
tr a -
d i ti on of
ch e cki ng l ong-te r m
consume r
p a ne l
d a ta
f or
consi ste ncy a ga i nst
oth e r
sour ce s,
such a s r e ta i l
a ud i t a nd
f a ctor y sh i p me nt f i gur e s
a nd
a ga i nst
d a ta f r om a d h oc cr oss-se cti ona l
sur v e y s.
Ind e e d ,
Eh r e nbe r g
(1972,
p .
9)
h a s
a r gue d
th a t consume r
p a ne l
d a ta a r e of te n
'a mongst
th e most
f ul l y
ch e cke d
a nd
r e p r od uci bl e
th a t a r e a v a i l a bl e i n th e soci a l
sci e nce s'.
In th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y ,
two
ty p e s
of
consi ste ncy
ch e cks h a v e be e n
p e r f or me d .
T h e f i r st
ty p e
h a s
i nv ol v e d th e
comp a r i son
of
d e scr i p ti v e
sta ti sti cs
obta i ne d f r om th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y a ga i nst
si mi l a r
me a sur e s obta i ne d f r om oth e r
conte mp or a r y
sour ce s. For
e xa mp l e ,
th e
r e l a ti onsh i p
be twe e n
h ouse h ol d i ncome a nd f ood a nd
gr oce r y e xp e nd i -
tur e e xh i bi te d
by
th e C a r d i f f
p a ne l
h a s be e n sh own
to be
v e r y
si mi l a r to th a t r e v e a l e d i n th e
Fa mi l y
Exp e nd i tur e Sur v e y
of 1981
(Guy , 1983).
T h e se cond
ty p e
of
consi ste ncy
ch e ck h a s con-
ce r ne d th e
p r e d i cta bi l i ty
of a numbe r of
i mp or ta nt
i nd i ce s of consume r
p ur ch a si ng
be h a v i our . In th i s
conte xt,
i t h a s be e n sh own th a t a
f a mi l y
of mod e l s
wi d e l y
use d i n th e sta ti sti cs a nd
ma r ke ti ng
l i te r a tur e
to
stud y
br a nd
p ur ch a si ng
be h a v i our ca n succe ss-
f ul l y p r e d i ct,
not
onl y i mp or ta nt a sp e cts
of th e br a nd
p ur ch a si ng
be h a v i our of th e C a r d i f f h ouse h ol d s
(Wr i gl e y
a nd
Dunn, 1983),
but a l so si mi l a r i nd i ce s of
p ur ch a si ng p a tte r ns
a t i nd i v i d ua l stor e s
(Dunn
e t
a l .,
1983;
Wr i gl e y
a nd
Dunn, 1984a , b).
T h e e xce l l e nt
f i t of th e se mod e l s i nd i ca te s th a t th e C a r d i f f d a ta
r e v e a l th e sa me
ty p e
of
p ur ch a si ng r e gul a r i ti e s
a s
p r e v i ousl y
f ound i n a wi d e
r a nge
of stud i e s i n a
numbe r of countr i e s. As
such , th e se r e sul ts
p r ov i d e
consi d e r a bl e
sup p or t
f or th e
v a l i d i ty
of th e C a r d i f f
d a ta . T h e a l te r na ti v e woul d be to be l i e v e th a t
p a ne l l -
i sts wi th i n a wi d e
r a nge
of
i nd e p e nd e ntl y
con-
d ucte d
sur v e y s
wi th d i f f e r e nt
d e si gns
a nd d i f f e r e nt
op e r a ti ng p r oce d ur e s
coul d some h ow
p r od uce
l ow
qua l i ty
(or
e v e n f a br i ca te d
d a ta )
i n such a
wa y
a s
to
consi ste ntl y p r od uce
th e sa me
p r e d i cta bl e
r e gul a r i ti e s
i n th e i nte r na l
r e l a ti onsh i p s
of br a nd a nd
stor e
p ur ch a si ng p a tte r ns-sur e l y
a
v e r y
d i f f i cul t
be l i e f to
sup p or t.
REP RESENT AT IVE NAT URE OF
T HE P ANEL
Huma n
ge ogr a p h e r s sce p ti ca l
of th e v a l ue of con-
sume r
p a ne l
d a ta of te n
que sti on
wh e th e r i nd i v i d ua l s
wh o a r e
p r e p a r e d
to ta ke
p a r t
i n such
sur v e y s
a r e i n
some
wa y
d i f f e r e nt f r om
non-p a r ti ci p a nts.
A f e a tur e
of th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y
wa s th a t i ts
d e si gn
a l l owe d
some a nswe r s to th i s
que sti on
to be obta i ne d .
As
Fi g
I
sh ows,
of th e i ni ti a l 2012 h ouse h ol d s
sa mp l e d
i n th e C a r d i f f
sur v e y ,
775 we r e not conta c-
te d or r e f use d to a nswe r th e 'i ni ti a l '
que sti onna i r e ,
a nd th e r e i s no i nf or ma ti on on th i s
gr oup
(oth e r
th a n
knowl e d ge
of sub-a r e a i n wh i ch e a ch non-conta ct/
non-r e sp ond e nt
i s
l oca te d ,
a nd th e
a p p r oxi ma te
numbe r of a d ul ts i n e a ch
h ouse h ol d ).2
At th i s
sta ge ,
r e p r e se nta ti v e ne ss
of th e
sa mp l e
must
r e l y up on
th e
f a ct th a t a str a ti f i e d r a nd om
sa mp l e d e si gn
wa s
use d ,
th a t th r e e
a tte mp ts,
a t d i f f e r e nt ti me s of
d a y ,
we r e ma d e to conta ct e a ch
h ouse h ol d ,
a nd th a t we l l -
tr a i ne d a nd
e xp e r i e nce d
f i e l d wor ke r s we r e use d .
C e r ta i nl y , a ny
bi a s i n th e
r e p r e se nta ti v e
na tur e of
th e
p a ne l
wh i ch
ma y
h a v e a r i se n a t th i s
sta ge
i s not a
f e a tur e of
p a ne l sur v e y me th od ol ogy p e r
se but i s
a common
p r obl e m
of a l l soci a l
sur v e y s,
both
cr oss-se cti ona l a nd
l ongi tud i na l .
Once i ni ti a l conta ct wi th th e
p r i nci -a l
f ood
73
NEIL WRIGLEY ET AL.
a nd
gr oce r y sh op p e r
of a h ouse h ol d h a d be e n
e sta bl i sh e d , h owe v e r ,
th a t conta ct h a d to be con-
v e r te d ,
i f
p ossi bl e ,
i nto succe ssf ul r e cr ui tme nt to
p a ne l me mbe r sh i p .
At th i s
sta ge
th e f i r st
p ote nti a l
bi a s i n th e
r e p r e se nta ti v e
na tur e of th e
sa mp l e
wh i ch
i s
d i r e ctl y
a ttr i buta bl e to th e
p a ne l sur v e y
me th od ol ogy
occur s. At th i s
sta ge ,
632 conta cts
r e f use d to
joi n
th e
p a ne l .
A
comp a r i son
of th e
ch a r a cte r i sti cs of th e se
'non-p a ne l l i sts'
wi th th e 605
p a ne l l i sts succe ssf ul l y
r e cr ui te d ,
a nd
usi ng
d a ta f r om
th e 'i ni ti a l '
que sti onna i r e comp l e te d by
both
gr oup s,
r e v e a l e d th a t
non-p a ne l l i sts
we r e
sl i gh tl y
mor e
l i ke l y
to be i n th e
a ge ca te gor y
55
p l us,
f r om sma l l
h ouse h ol d s,
a nd to be ma l e
(th ough
i t sh oul d be
note d th a t ov e r a l l
onl y
12
p e r
ce nt of
p r i nci p a l
f ood
a nd
gr oce r y sh op p e r s
we r e
ma l e ).
In
a d d i ti on,
ca r
owne r sh i p
wa s l owe r
a mongst non-p a ne l l i sts.
Of
cour se ,
th e
i ni ti a l l y
r e cr ui te d
p a ne l
i s not th e
f i na l
p a ne l ,
a nd i t
ma y
be th e ca se th a t th ose
p a ne l -
l i sts wh o
'sta y
th e cour se ' a r e d i f f e r e nt f r om th ose
wh o
d r op
out
d ur i ng
th e
moni tor i ng p e r i od .
T h i s
ma y
r e i nf or ce
or ,
a l te r na ti v e l y , ma y
counte r a ct th e
p ote nti a l
bi a s to th e
r e p r e se nta ti v e
na tur e of th e
p a ne l
i ntr od uce d a t th e
p r e v i ous sta ge . Usi ng
i nf or -
ma ti on f r om th e 'i ni ti a l '
que sti onna i r e
a
comp a r i son
of th e 124
p a ne l l i sts
wh o
d r op p e d
out of th e
p a ne l
d ur i ng
th e
moni tor i ng p e r i od
wi th th e 481
p a ne l l i sts
(th e 'sta y e r s')
wh o
r e ma i ne d ,
wa s cond ucte d . T h i s
r e v e a l e d th a t
sta y e r s
we r e much mor e
l i ke l y
to
be
a ge d
25-44 a nd a l so me mbe r s of
ca r -owni ng
h ouse h ol d s.
Ap p r oxi ma te l y
twi ce a s
ma ny 'sta y e r s'
(32
p e r
ce nt)
a s
'd r op -outs'
(17
p e r
ce nt)
f e l l i nto
th i s
ca te gor y .
In
contr a st,
'd r op -outs'
we r e d i s-
p r op or ti ona l l y
f r om
non-ca r -owni ng
h ouse h ol d s
a nd
a ge d
16-24 or 45
p l us.
A f ur th e r br e a kd own of th e ch a r a cte r i sti cs of th e
d r op -outs
ca n be obta i ne d
by d i v i d i ng
th e m i nto
two
gr oup s:
'i mme d i a te
d r op -outs'
wh o l e f t th e
p a ne l d ur i ng
th e
'r unni ng-i n' p e r i od ,
a nd 'l a te r
d r op -outs'
wh o l e f t th e
p a ne l d ur i ng
th e ma i n
moni tor i ng p e r i od .
A
comp a r i son
of th e se two
gr oup s
r e v e a l e d th a t 'i mme d i a te
d r op -outs'
we r e
much mor e
l i ke l y
to be ol d e r
(79
p e r
ce nt we r e
a ge d
45 or
ov e r )
a nd to be me mbe r s of
non-ca r -owni ng
h ouse h ol d s th a n wa s th e ca se f or e i th e r
'sta y e r s'
or
'l a te r
d r op -outs'.
In
contr a st,
'l a te r
d r op -outs'
we r e
v e r y
si mi l a r to
'sta y e r s'
i n most
r e sp e cts,
wi th th e
one mi nor
e xce p ti on
th a t 'l a te r
d r op -outs'
we r e
mor e
l i ke l y
to be i n th e
y ounge st a ge gr oup ,
16-24,
th a n wa s th e ca se f or e i th e r
'sta y e r s'
or 'i mme d i a te
d r op -outs'.
On th e ba si s of th e se
comp a r i sons
i t woul d se e m
th a t th e C a r d i f f
p a ne l
(a nd we
susp e ct l ong-te r m
p a ne l
d a ta i n
ge ne r a l )
i s to a l i mi te d e xte nt bi a se d
towa r d s
f a mi l y
uni ts i n wh i ch th e
p a ne l l i st
i s
a ge d
25-44.
Mor e ov e r ,
th e se f a mi l i e s te nd to be
ca r -owne r s a nd
a r e , th e r e f or e ,
mor e mobi l e a nd
p ossi bl y
mor e a f f l ue nt. In
a d d i ti on,
i t woul d
a p p e a r
th a t 'i mme d i a te
d r op -outs'
wh o l e a v e th e
p a ne l
d ur i ng
th e
'r unni ng-i n' p e r i od
a r e i n some
r e sp e cts
a n
e xa gge r a te d
v e r si on of
non-p a ne l l i sts
wh e r e a s
'l a te r
d r op -outs'
a r e
v e r y
si mi l a r to
sta y e r s.3
T h i s
p a tte r n
of ov e r - a nd
und e r -r e p r e se nta ti on
of sub-
gr oup s
must be bor ne i n mi nd wh e n
usi ng
th e d a ta
f or ce r ta i n i nf e r e nti a l
p ur p ose s
or to d r a w
p ol i cy /
ur ba n-p l a nni ng
concl usi ons,
a nd
a p p r op r i a te
cor r e c-
ti ons
ca n,
wh e r e
ne ce ssa r y ,
be ma d e . Howe v e r ,
th e
d e gr e e
of bi a s sh oul d not be
ov e r -e xa gge r a te d ,
f or
th e r e sul ts of th e much mor e d e ta i l e d 'se cond
que sti onna i r e '
sh ow th a t th e f i na l
p a ne l
of con-
ti nuous
r e p or te r s
use d f or
a na l y si s p ur p ose s
i ncl ud e s
substa nti a l numbe r s of
v i r tua l l y e v e r y ty p e
of
p op ul a ti on sub-gr oup
use d i n th e
d e scr i p ti on
a nd
a na l y si s
of ur ba n
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our
(i ncl ud i ng
th e
ol d ,
th e
i mmobi l e ,
th e
une mp l oy e d ,
a nd so
on).
Al so,
i t i n no
wa y p r e cl ud e s e xtr e me l y
v a l ua bl e com-
p a r i sons
of th e C a r d i f f r e sul ts wi th th ose of
p r e v i ous
sh or t-te r m or
l ong-te r m
p a ne l sur v e y s r e p or te d
i n
th e l i te r a tur e of
ge ogr a p h y , p l a nni ng, ma r ke ti ng
a nd
sta ti sti cs
(i ncl ud i ng
th e gov e r nme nt-f i na nce d
Na ti ona l T r a v e l
Sur v e y s),
a s th e se
sur v e y s
a r e
l i ke l y
to be
subje ct
to si mi l a r l i mi te d
p a tte r ns
of
sub-gr oup
ov e r - a nd
und e r -r e p r e se nta ti on.
As
such ,
th e C a r d i f f
d a ta
p r ov i d e s ge ogr a p h e r s
wi th a n
i mme nse l y
use f ul
r e sour ce f or
und e r sta nd i ng
th e na tur e a nd sca l e of
th e
si gni f i ca nt ch a nge s
i n
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our i n
th e Uni te d
Ki ngd om br ough t
a bout
by
th e f a ctor s
d e scr i be d i n th e i ntr od ucti on to th i s
p a p e r .
C ONC LUSIONS
It i s our be l i e f th a t
we l l -d e si gne d
a nd
r i gor ousl y
cond ucte d
p a ne l sur v e y s
ca n
p r ov i d e h i gh -qua l i ty
d a ta of unma tch a bl e d e ta i l .
Mor e ov e r ,
be ca use
of th e r e ce nt
r a p i d me th od ol ogi ca l
a d v a nce s i n
p a ne l -d a ta a na l y si s,
such d a ta ca n be use d to
p r ov i d e
a nswe r s to a
r a nge
of
p r obl e ms
wh i ch r e ma i n i ntr a c-
ta bl e i n th e
p r e se nce
of conv e nti ona l cr oss-se cti ona l
d a ta . In th i s
p a p e r
we h a v e sh own h ow i t i s
p ossi bl e
to col l e ct
h i gh -qua l i ty , l oca ti ona l l y
d e ta i l e d ,
i nf or -
ma ti on f r om a
p a ne l sur v e y ,
e v e n wh e n th e moni tor -
i ng p e r i od
of th e
sur v e y
e xte nd s ov e r a much
l onge r
ti me h or i zon th a n th a t
ty p i ca l
of
p r e v i ous
ge ogr a p h i ca l /p l a nni ng p a ne l s.
74
Me th od ol ogi ca l a sp e cts of
th e cond uct
of
a
l ong-te r m p a ne l sur v e y
T h e r i ch
ge ogr a p h i ca l
d a ta ba se
p r ov i d e d by
th e
C a r d i f f C onsume r P a ne l
p r ov i d e s
a
uni que
a nd
v a l ua bl e r e sour ce f or
und e r sta nd i ng
th e na tur e of
ur ba n
sh op p i ng
be h a v i our i n Br i ta i n i n th e 1980s,
a nd f or
und e r sta nd i ng
th e sca l e a nd na tur e of th e
ch a nge s
i n such be h a v i our wh i ch h a v e
a ccomp a ni e d
th e tr a nsf or ma ti on of th e Br i ti sh
gr oce r y r e ta i l i ng
i nd ustr y .
T h e
l a r ge
v ol ume of r e se a r ch r e f e r r e d to
a bov e , e i th e r
comp l e te d
or sti l l i n
p r ogr e ss, gi v e s
some i nd i ca ti on of th e
p ossi bl e
use s of th e C a r d i f f
d a ta . We
h op e
th a t th i s
p a p e r ma y e ncour a ge
oth e r
i nte r e ste d r e se a r ch e r s to
e xp l oi t
th e d a ta ba se v i a
th e ESRC Da ta
Ar ch i v e ,
a nd th a t i t wi l l
e ncour a ge
both th e
a p p l i ca ti on
of
p a ne l
d a ta
te ch ni que s
i n
ur ba n
ge ogr a p h y /p l a nni ng
a nd a wi d e r d e ba te on
a p p r op r i a te sur v e y me th od ol ogy .
AC KNOWLEDGEMENT
T h e C a r d i f f C onsume r P a ne l wa s f und e d
by
th e
Economi c a nd Soci a l Re se a r ch C ounci l und e r
gr a nt
D00230010.
NOT ES
1. House h ol d s i n e a ch sub-a r e a we r e se l e cte d
by
r a nd om
sa mp l i ng
of th e 1981-82 e l e ctor a l r ol l s. T o
gi v e
e a ch
h ouse h ol d i n a sub-a r e a a n
e qua l
ch a nce of
be i ng
se l e c-
te d ,
a
p r oce d ur e
known a s
'f i r sti ng'
(Hoi nv i l l e
a nd
Jowe l l , 1978)
wa s
a d op te d
to cor r e ct f or th e f a ct th a t a n
e l e ctor a l r ol l i s not a r oste r of h ouse h ol d s but a l i st of
e l e ctor s
(th ose
e l i gi bl e
to
v ote ,
i .e . th ose 18
y e a r s
ol d
or ov e r
a p p r oxi ma te l y )
wh o come f r om h ouse h ol d s of
v a r y i ng
si ze . As a r e sul t, th e numbe r of a d ul ts
(18 y e a r s
ol d or
ov e r )
i n e a ch of th e 775 non-conta ct/
non-r e sp onse
h ouse h ol d s i s known.
2. Se e 1 a bov e .
3. T h i s
p r ov i d e s
a n a d d i ti ona l
justi f i ca ti on
f or
h a v i ng
a
'r unni ng-i n' p e r i od ,
a nd i t sh oul d be note d th a t th e
si mi l a r i ty
be twe e n th e 'l a te r
d r op -outs'
a nd
'sta y e r s'
ca n be
e xp l oi te d by
th ose r e se a r ch e r s
wh o,
f or some
a na l y ti ca l p ur p ose s, ma y
wi sh to
sup p l e me nt
th e si ze of
th e f i na l
p a ne l by d r a wi ng
on th e
i ncomp l e te
r e cor d s of
th e 'l a te r
d r op -outs'.
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R. L.
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'An
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R. a nd
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N.
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gr oce r y p r od ucts:
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WRIGLEY,
N.
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'An
e mp i r i ca l
e xa mp l e
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'Be ta -l ogi sti c
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(1983)
'C r oss-
cul tur a l
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sp a ti a l
be h a v i our : a n
a p p r oa ch usi ng p a ne l
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75
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'T h e C a r d i f f C onsume r P a ne l : a
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HANSON,
S.
(1980)
'Sp a ti a l
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Ge ogr l
Ana l . 12: 245-5 7
HANSON, S. a nd
HANSON,
P .
(1980)
'Ge nd e r a nd ur ba n
a cti v i ty p a tte r ns
i n
Up p sa l a ,
Swe d e n',
Ge ogr l
Re v . 70:
291-99
HOINVILLE, G. a nd
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d a ta mod e l s of ur ba n
sh op p i ng
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1: P ur ch a s-
i ng
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sh op p i ng
be h a v i our ,
2:
Mul ti stor e
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WRIGLEY,
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WRIGLEY, N. a nd
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mod e l s of ur ba n
sh op p i ng
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GUY, C . M.
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je ct).'
Fi na l
r e p or t
on SSRC Re se a r ch
P r oje ct
HR 7430
WRIGLEY, N., GUY,
C . M. a nd
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l a te -ni gh t sh op p i ng
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ci ty :
e v i d e nce f r om
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16: 236-40
76