ARTICULOS SOBRE PROSPECTIVA

ABSTRACT

The new science called " Foresight " as the science of the future, focuses on the importance of strategic vision
that every organization must serve as an essential part of future organizational vision , the studies that have
been conducted in various countries analyzed , the effect of technology and people in organizations

Keywords : Foresight, Strategic plans , strategy, vision, business philosophy, competition , stakeholders,
methods experts, benchmarking.

What is strategic foresight ?

Foresight Center UNALM in its editorial refers to " The prospective part of the concept that the future does not
exist yet and" can be conceived as a multiple realization " ( Jouvenel , 1968 ) and that" depends only on the
action of man " ( Godet , 1987) . For that reason, man can build the best possible future for which must make
the right decisions at the right time .

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD ) defines foresight as the "set of
systematic attempts to observe the long-term future of science , technology , economy and society in order to
identify emerging technologies probably produce the greatest economic or social benefits . "

Gaston Berger ( 1991) ( one of the founders of the discipline ) , defined as "the science that studies the future
to understand and influence it . Although sometimes the term futurology refers to other disciplines not based on
the scientific method. "
.
For the Institute of Strategic Foresight of Spain (1999 ) : " Foresight is a discipline with open global vision,
systemic , dynamic and outlining the possible future , not only past data but primarily considering future
developments in the variables ( quantitative and qualitative above ) as well as the behavior of the actors
involved , so that reduces uncertainty , illuminates the present action and provides mechanisms that lead to the
desired future acceptable , or desirable "

Jordi Sierra (1992 ) defines it as " The science of the future to understand and be able to influence. Although in
fact it is , paradoxically , a science without object moving between the need to predict what might happen and
the desire to devise the best possible future . For though the future can not be predicted precisely , if we can
imagine our favorite tomorrow. "

Two other known definitions described by researchers from the UK , you will quote to Ben Martin (1995 )
describes the prospects as "the investigative process that requires systematic look at the long-term future in
science, technology , economy and society , with the aim of identify areas of strategic research and emerging
generic technologies that will generate the greatest economic and social benefits. "

Meanwhile Luke Georghiou (1996 ) describes foresight as " a systematic means of assessing scientific and
technological developments that could have a strong impact on industrial competitiveness , wealth creation
and quality of life."

The important features of these definitions are the periodic ( time horizons ranging from 5 to 30 years) and
systematic of these studies and the importance of balancing the thrust of scientific and technological
developments with market demand .

In turn, these studies should not be dominated only by the technological aspects . It is important that the
analysis is focused on the social aspects that transcends wealth creation and include issues such as crime
prevention , equity , education, skill building or an aging society.


Foresight as a sustainable competitive advantage

A country without foresight is a country without vision and progress, a company without foresight is a
dysfunctional organization and creek would not survive in a world of high competition and constant change a
person without foresight is a person without a future , it would fail and could not achieve prosperity , better
quality of life and happiness.

The company must plan its future

Alvin Toffler (1992 ) states "As the economy and society of tomorrow take shape , all of us - individuals,
companies , organizations and governments alike we are facing the most savage and swift path to the future
that no generation has doneWelcome the rest of the twenty-first century ! "

" All countries should be clear that social changes will accelerate , future jobs will require more and more
knowledge and skills. "

We raised some questions that must be transcendent in all human groups and organizations in particular .
Surely we asked what if the success of a company that obtains today , will continue tomorrow's success ?

Organizations must not only coexist and be sufficiently satisfied with the achievements of the present , but
continue to view and planning your vision into a promising future , the success of today will not be tomorrow's
successes , organizations will always be renewed , it is not enough develop a strategic plan is not always the
total solution , we must have adequate vision and foresight of the environment in the American Journal Fortune
( 1996) refers to ten properly formulated strategic plans successfully implemented only one , and that the
causes common we mainly numbness management levels , lack of vision, foresight and problems mainly due
to managerial attitudes as conformity, low skills to inspire, motivate and enthuse colleagues ; benchmarking is
not necessarily a solution , but it is a constant need that can help to ensure their long-term future , learning the
best practices of business leaders .

Organizations must have a need to look prospectively all these questions:

Do we believe that it serves customers today will also serve within five to ten years?


Are the channels we use today to reach your customers survive unchanged in a few years ?


Do our competitors today ; be the same in other period?


What is the basis of our current competitive advantage? ; What will be in five years ? ; What will be in ten
years ?


What will be the long-term economic conditions? , What pricing trends ?


Our products are competitive ? ; Are other substitutes resulting from new technologies appear?


Where the margins generated today ? ; Where will be generated in the future?


The skills of our people will in ten years ?


We control our company today ; Do we believe that we continue to monitor in the future with the same
premises today?


What defines us as a company today against shareholders, employees , suppliers, customers, the public and
society? ; What will define us in a few years ?


What things will change and what will not change ?


How do you analyze and draw useful consequences?


Good questions bring us to a very interesting level around strategic forward thinking .

In the same approach What we will have to meet new requirements in 5 or more years on our customers ?
What will the new consumer culture ? How to effectively manage the new workforce and its features? What
human skills will be needed in people to handle new technologies? What technologies will be needed to
produce better products , better services ? What is to be our best competition we ? What are the changes in
the environment that affect customers, producers and suppliers? What makes our competitors have vision ?
Do we have a strategic plan? What are the new managerial skills needed in the future? How influence our
stakeholders ( shareholders , customers, suppliers, staff, community)? . These and other questions should be
required to make in the here and now in all organizations wishing to stay in the market.


Who is targeted foresight ?

A political pundits political and legislative leaders and their teams , government advisers, public agencies ,
economic, they need to make important decisions with long-term socio-economic implications .


The leaders of the companies and organizations that seek to understand the future in order to stay ahead of
their competitors and find new business opportunities.


A management teams need to raise, analyze, evaluate , represent and communicate the important decisions
about the future.


A managers specializing in mergers and acquisitions , strategy , marketing, etc. . , They need to explore the
consequences of the important decisions to be taken in different scenarios.


A professional and investment advisors who need long-term prospect of the companies where they are to
invest / disinvest developments .


Students who want to project a better future.


Foresight studies as transcendental strategy

Foresight studies allow the identification , anticipation and projection of trends in social , economic and
technological fields , using interactive and participatory methods of discussion, in order to forge new social
networks . This is crucial to identify a strategic vision that does not result utopian but recognize and explain its
implications for correct decisions and actions today .

Having a business philosophy and a guiding vision is vital for contemporary by constant changes in the rapidly
changing and competitive environment organizations already said Heraclitus of Ephesus ( 535 BC) " the only
constant in the world is change , stating that the foundation of everything is in constant change "

Meanwhile Peter Drucker (1990 ) believes that "changes in any order of things could occur in the world every
24 hours," this can be felt daily in everything we do and perceive around us .

All a company can be built to today will be short-lived in the future, if you are not in tune with the pace of
change , we believe that no organization should rest on its laurels , today's companies are not necessarily the
best in the morning and this is base to survive this modern world, have a guiding philosophy will be critical .

Individuals and companies should be prepared for future changes together , must anticipate , adapt to
situations emitted by phenomena that occur in this changing world, as is the business to build future; ie not
wait for things to happen to take measures that may be not so appropriate because although the future can not
be predicted precisely , if we can imagine our favorite tomorrow. "

They are involved in this challenge, managers , entrepreneurs, professionals, managers and executives in
charge of decision-making in public and private organizations.

Other reasons of importance to investigate the future

There are many reasons why it is important that the prospective require us to identify and understand ,
systematically, the dominant trends in the international economy, where research and development of new
technologies is heading and how it affects all our businesses and quality of life of our country .

Among them, point out below some of those considered , usually among the most relevant .

Competition, increases rapidly and suddenly hits the markets and societies growing rivalry not only between
countries but also between companies. In the last 12 years, for example , many new players have entered the
group of the " market economy " , especially in Asia and Central Europe , offering new opportunities for
business and investment .

This increased competition follows two main vectors . On the one hand , we witness a huge ( and perhaps
unprecedented ) differential labor costs in a context in which companies can move their production resources
and a much quicker and easier than at any time last way .

Technological innovation and the demand it generates in terms of increasing knowledge and skills increasingly
pressed directly and immediately on markets, products and business and public policy way .

Recent studies in the United States of technological forecasts first used around 1950 in the area of defense
production . The Rand Corporation , for example, in various consulting engagements , was responsible for the
development of some of the main tools used in this technique, as the measurement form "Delphi " . Big
forecasting exercises were carried forward in the Navy and the Air Force of the United States . And private
companies applied it to the energy sector . Despite the poor relation to the market provided by the area in
which specialized foresight studies , use was missing popular. However, in the late 80s as a result of what was
perceived as a Japanese threat to American competitiveness , foresight techniques to the forefront again .
That's when the Department of Commerce, the Council on Competitiveness and the Office of Science and
Technology Policy began to use the techniques of prospective restarted again.

Despite having been the United States that began in 1950 with the use of these techniques were the
Japanese that developed to its full potential . Convinced that they represented a potentially useful tool for
policymakers sent a team to consult experts in the United States.

In 1970 the Japanese had developed its own strategy and applied prospectively to produce a first forecast
about the future of science and technology, with a time horizon of 30 years. This study was prepared by the
Agency for Science and Technology and usually the first prospective study of technology itself is considered .

The objective was to produce an overview that looked the fields of science and technology as a whole, in
order to provide business intelligence on long-term trends to policy makers in the public and private sector.
Thus, they would be able to decide the broad strokes of the direction I had to take to reach the forefront of
progress. Thousands of experts from industry , universities and government participated in the preparation of
this report to be repeated every 5 years since.

In the Netherlands, this seems to have been the first European country to use foresight techniques in the 70 to
examine the relationship between science and society. In the 80 sector councils ( for agriculture , health and
environment ) carried out several studies and 90 prospective committee took charge of the coordination of
these studies across the country .

In Germany the use extended this technique began to be in other countries and , especially , the unification
and the problems of recession and structural adjustment which faced the German economy , led the country to
enter ( after 1990 ) the use of foresight techniques .

Information on the use of this instrument in the United States sought and enlisted the a ssistance of Japan and
was on his fifth regular exercise ( five-year ) prospective . Later, based on their own experience , Germany
would work with the Japanese sixth year on the subject.

In the early 80 France developed several foresight . However, it was only after 1994 that they began to be
done in a systematic way , based on traditional tools such as Delphi forms. At the end of this decade the
technique spread to countries like Australia , Canada, Norway and Sweden.

ARTICULOS SOBRE TOMA DE DCISIONES


. Decisions

Decision making is one of the most difficult processes to which human faces . The decision making process
most studied in psychology and has application in cognitive behavioral therapy is presented on this page.
Explained in detail to be asked the desired objectives , develop a plan , perform the actions included in the
plan , evaluate the progress of the plan and the results are reached .

The process of decision making and problem solving
introduction

Always keep in mind that each person faces problem solving differently , based on their experience and history
of reinforcement . There are classic models of how decisions are made and there is a basic outline of problem
solving ( D' Zurilla , Goldfried , 1971) posed as do so effectively and has been incorporated into cognitive
behavioral therapy all the merits ( Nezu , 2004 ) . This page will give a very brief overview of this model along
with classic decision-making.

Classical definitions of the processes of decision making.

Some classic definitions of the processes that the decisions are given and can clarify an important part of this
process a number of behaviors that need definition is given as follows:

Hastie (2001 ) raises a number of definitions that are safe to clarify the decision-making process , which is a
part of problem solving :
1.Decisiones . They are combinations of situations and behaviors that can be described in terms of three
essential components: alternative actions , consequences and uncertain events.
I 2.Result . Are publicly describable situations that occur when they perform alternative behaviors that have
been generated . As all situations are dynamic and assume that if you take the action continues the result can
vary.
3.Consecuencias . They are subjective evaluative reactions, measured in terms of good or bad , gains or
losses related to each outcome.
4.Incertidumbre . It refers to the judgments of the decision maker 's propensity for each event to occur.
Described with measures including probability , confidence, and ability ? ( likelihood )
5.Preferencias . They are choosing expressive behaviors , or intentions of choosing a course of action over
another.
6.Tomar a decision refers to the entire process of choosing a course of action.
7.Juicio . Are the components of the decision process relating to value, estimate , infer that events will occur
and what will be the evaluative reactions to the decision on the results obtained.

According to these definitions the decision-making process would be to find a suitable behavior for a situation
where there are a number of uncertain events. The choice of the situation and is an element that can enter into
the process. You have to choose items that are relevant and ignore those that are not and analyze the
relationships between them . Having determined what the situation is , to make decisions is necessary to
develop alternative actions, extrapolate to imagine the final situation and evaluate the results taking into
account the uncertainty in each result and its value. So a picture of the consequences of each of the alternative
actions that have been defined is obtained. According to the consequences associated with the situation the
most appropriate behavior by choosing it as a course of action.

Model of decision making

In the model of D' Zurilla and Goldfried consider two dimensions :
1.A problem orientation that includes beliefs about the control exercised by the individual on the resolution of
their problems. Turn has two factors based on the theory of Bandura 's self-efficacy (1997 ) : 1.La belief in self-
efficacy in solving problems . Based on the expectation of efficacy.
2.La belief that life's problems can be solved . Based on the expected outcome.

2.A series of steps that make up an ideal process of problem solving and decision making.

The problem orientation

Positive problem orientation can lead to :
1. View problems as challenges .
Two . Be optimistic in the sense that problems are solvable
3.Percibir which has a strong ability to cope.
4.Estar willing to invest time and effort in their solution.

A negative problem orientation involves see problems as threats.
1.Creer which are insoluble .
2.Dudar one's ability to solve them.
3.Frustrarse and stressed when faced with a problem .

In summary, and more importantly , a positive problem orientation to induce the subject to confront him , while
negative orientation prepares you for help .

Model problem solving or decision making

Decision making is the association of a course of action or plan with a given situation. The model presented
decision-making has the following steps :

Ask supposed plans :
1.Conduct a model of the current situation or problem definition. Problem is defined as "an actual or anticipated
life situation that requires responses from the subject to adaptive functioning ; but that are not available or are
not identifiable by it, due to the existence of barriers or obstacles " ( Nezu , 2004). The demands of the
situation may come from outside; but also to the goals and values of the individual. The most common barriers
to achieve the objectives are: ambiguity , uncertainty, conflicting demands , lack of resources , or novelty. At
this stage the definition of the objectives that the individual wants to achieve ( Nezu , 2004 ) is included . When
will solve a problem you need to analyze and elucidate the processes which are relevant aspects that are
influencing the development and maintenance of the problem or what makes the situation threatening . In this
step the process of achieving appropriate behavior can also take pathological features . The situation analysis
is a causal analysis , trying to determine the influence of some factors on others, now and in the possible
evolution
2.Generar possible alternative behaviors within the model of reality that has been created . It is a phase that
depends on the creativity of the individual. It is possible to imagine alternatives. Criticism and self-criticism play
a role significantly compromising the effectiveness of this step. It is necessary to remove both at an early stage
to consider solutions without prior censorship. It is following the rules of brainstorming , in which no criticism or
evaluation of the proposed ideas are realized ; any proposal is exploited , supplemented or varied to generate
new solutions. People with social anxiety are very vulnerable to criticism and inhibit their creativity by the fear
of making mistakes and being socially rejected. This aspect may leave the anchored end and person in this
step . Remember that among the instructions given in creative exercises such as brainstorming to act out with
a complete absence of review to generate alternatives that will be evaluated in another phase . Taking this
step is important to have an open mind and mindfulness to leave the set and automatic behaviors (Langer ,
2000 , Garca Higuera , 2004) and behave according to our values.
3.Extrapolar results generated behavior associated with each . in order to foresee the results of their
implementation with the changes that will occur in the situation. It is a part of problem solving is very subject to
uncertainty, because the outcome of our actions depends not only what we do, but they are fundamental
reactions of others who are involved in the situation. Learn to predict the results of a plan that has been
developed is difficult and uncertainty plays a key role again . This phase can be an endless source of worrying
events , especially if you want to avoid the uncertainty supposed ignorance of how the other will react to our to
our performance. If we want to ensure that the conduct of another is not going to be that we fear we can find
caught in the trap of providing numerous events concern " what if ...".
4.Extraer the consequences of each outcome , ie , assess the situation generated in accordance with the
objectives to be achieved . For this purpose the probability of an outcome , ie , its uncertainty are valued ;
along with the benefits or harm that may result to occur , ie , the consequences of each outcome. This
evaluation is done consciously and sometimes thought form by a scale every aspect of the result; concepts in
such cases as Profit = probability x value ( Hastie, 2001 ) are used . But very often evaluates generally taking
only the feeling or sensation that includes the overall impression that evokes the intended situation. This
assessment can be done automatically , ie , without conscious thought , guiding only by sensations that
produced us . This step includes evaluating the uncertainty of events.
5.Elegir the action will take place between those that can produce the intended result . An immediate
consequence of the evaluation of the results is the choice of the most appropriate behavior to solve the
problem . But sometimes you get which certainly should be acting, as a result of the assessment of the
consequences ; but , once identified , may have trouble putting it into practice . " That's what you should do ;
but ... "
6.Controlar the process when carrying out the action. When we perform an action in the control process of
what we do , (Carver and Scheier , 1981) in which we monitored whether the current result goes in the way we
expect or not . If no progress toward the goal, generate new paths or change plans in a process of making
similar decisions. Worry is an action that is intended to make a decision , so the process can be monitored and
controlled as any action which pursues an aim .
7.Evaluar results. It's time to review what has been done in order to learn for the future . A quick review of the
process that has been and behaviors of others helps us to improve our decision making . The evaluation is to
be done based on the events and real and measurable results. If you want to evaluate the implicit reactions
and feelings of others can fall into the useless and destructive concern. So , you can make endless revisions
when considering the possible no explicit negative reactions that have been able to take the other . "What have
thought ," " I will have been well really ? " ... Reviewing the performance itself may consider new alternative
actions that were not previously thought, " if he had said this instead of what I said ... ? " . It's easier knowing
how they have reacted the other , adjust the action to obtain the desired result , but this can only be done at
the time it happens and you have to be open minded and prepared to react and accept our limitations and
create a new opportunity to obtain the desired results. The performance review is a process that aims to
achieve the following performance improve , but if not kept within limits , all you get is continuing concern after
the action finished . Therapeutic proposals in this case are : accept the assessment is another form of therapy
to curb the thoughts, trying to accept the limitations , if necessary, gets a second chance to finish the review if
the results are acceptable or does not provide a new opportunity to face the same situation.

Sometimes considered decision as the party is from that alternative behaviors are generated so that the choice
of action is made to perform. But sometimes it is considered that the whole process is included in decision -
making.

Summary of decision -making

There are classical models of how decisions (Hastie , 2001) are taken and there is a basic outline of problem
solving ( D' Zurilla , Goldfried , 1971) posed as do so effectively and has been incorporated into cognitive
behavioral therapy all merits ( Nezu , 2004 ) . Of course in clinical practice can not never forget that people
were not born to fit the models to be determined for each patient that process is to make decisions , taking into
account that each person faces the problem solving differently, based on their experience and learning history ,
and the particular analysis method that follows the patient to solve problems which will allow us to analyze the
influence of the concern in his disorders.

Decision making involves finding appropriate behavior to resolve a problematic situation in which , in addition ,
a number of uncertain events. Once a threat is detected , real, imaginary , or probably not, and has decided to
make a plan to deal with it , we have to analyze the situation : you have to determine the elements that are
relevant and ignore those that are not and analyze the relationships between them and the way we influence
them. This step can lead to problems , when taking into account irrelevant aspects and key elements of the
problem are ignored. Having determined what the problem situation and analyzed in depth, to make decisions,
it is necessary to develop models of alternative actions , extrapolate to imagine the end result and evaluate this
considering the uncertainty of each event that composes and value subjectively is assigned either consciously
or automatically. So an idea of the consequences of each of the alternative actions that have been defined and
can be used to choose the most appropriate behavior and the course of action that will resolve the threat is
obtained.