China Da 1nc

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China Relations DA
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1NC Shell
A. New Chinese leadership creates an opportunity to improve unstable Sino-
U.S. relations
Agence Frane Presse 13 (Retrieved May 24, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

Christopher Johnson, a former CIA analyst on China, said that Xi -- thanks in part to his elite background --
consolidated power more quickly than many US policymakers had anticipated. "Xi Jinping is much more relaxed
and cosmopolitan and more likely to go off the talking points. Hu Jintao was very robotic and oftentimes
seemed to be talking more to the Chinese in the room than to his counterpart," said Johnson, now at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies. The Obama administration has already invested time in cultivating a
relationship with Xi, and Vice President Joe Biden spent an unusually long five days in China in
2011 to mingle with him.
B. The US & China will clash over economic ties to Latin America.
Schimia 12 (Emanuele, journalist and geopolitical analyst, 2012, Retrieved May 30, 2013, from
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/NG18Cb01.html)

The United States keeps on looking to Asia, but it had better watch its back, where China's penetration in Latin America is
intensifying. Meanwhile, region's countries are taking their countermeasures to minimize the Sino-Western dispute, using
multilateral regional and sub-regional institutions as the first line of defense. During her latest roadshow in Asia, US Secretary of
State Hillary Clinton shifted the debate over the much-trumpeted United States "pivot" towards
the Asian-Pacific region from military confrontation to trade competition with China. Over the
past decade, trade assertiveness has turned out to be the master key to another, often
underestimated, geopolitical pivot: that of Beijing to Latin America - Washington's historical and
geographical backyard. China's drive for enhancing its vested positions across Central and South
America is not without pitfalls, much as those the US faces in its efforts to protect its strategic
interests in East Asia. China is Latin America's third-largest trading partner, immediately after
the United States and European Union (EU). Beijing's commercial exchanges with Latin-American countries were
worth more than US$241 billion in 2011, according to data released by the Chinese Trade Ministry in April. Of US$153 billion from
foreign direct investments which Latin-American and Caribbean nations attracted in 2011, $8 billion came from China (down $7
billion compared with 2010), the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) reported in May. That puts
Beijing well behind the EU, US, Latin America and Caribbean and even Japan. The EU, top investor in this region, has funneled an
average of $30 billion a year into Latin America since 2002. Recent trade and economic tensions between the
United States, Canada and Europe on one side, and some Latin-American countries on the
other seem to be playing into Beijing's hands. In May, the EU filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization
(WTO) against Argentina's import barriers, after it had already challenged Buenos Aires's decision in April to nationalize YPF, the
local energy company which until then was controlled by Spain's oil and gas major Repsol. Left-leaning governments such as
Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador have made numerous nationalizations over the past years, which have affected mostly North
American and European companies.
C. Relations are not stable- increased tensions risk crisis escalation.
Dingli 13 (Shen, professor and associate dean at Fudan Universitys Institute of International
Studies, interviewed by Emeritus Professor Joseph Camilleri, La Trobe University, May 21, 2013,
Retrieved from May 24, 2013, from http://www.thepowerofideas.com/post/50987680565/the-
future-of-us-sino-relations-an-interview-with)

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SD: Current Sino-US relations can be described as an interesting mix of necessary cooperation
and increasing competition, with some controlled confrontation. So long as it views itself as a City upon a
hill, the United States will remain fundamentally opposed to the emergence of a multipolar system. In particular the United
States will resist anyone, China included, from sharing its leadership. America may accept certain
partnerships as part of a US-centric world, but not as part of a multipolar one. America may eventually agree to engage with China in
the development of a multipolar order, but out of necessity, not out of choice. There are many examples of
expanding China-US cooperation: collaborating against North Koreas nuclear and missile development; jointly
stabilizing the world financial market; and, dispatching large numbers of students reciprocally to learn from each other etc. But
areas of suspicion are increasing even faster when it comes to perceptions of each others strategic intentions:
why the US has moved its pivot to Asia, and how China perceives its interests in the South China Sea, to name a few. The US is
wondering whether Beijing, especially during Chinas military modernization, will follow through on its
international commitment, especially to the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of Sea (UNCLOS)
which allows Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia respective exclusive economic zones (EEZs), thereby denying
Chinas claim of the right to tap maritime economic resources in some of these exclusive areas. China, for its part, is deeply
concerned about the US shift to a pro-Japan position in the China-Japan sovereignty dispute over the Diaoyu Islands. Such deep
mutual suspicion and subsequent hedging, if poorly managed, could lead to serious crisis
escalation .
D. Strong US-Sino relations cause political reform and peace in China as well as
prevent several scenarios for global war, disease, terrorism and prolif
Gross 13 (Donald senior associate at the Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), a former State Department official, and author of The China
Fallacy), Mar. 19, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013 from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/donald-
gross/us-china-relations_b_2891183.html?view=print&comm_ref=false)

Better relations with China would support wide-reaching political reform and liberalization.
They would undercut the repressive internal forces that legitimize one-party authoritarian
rule as a means of protecting the country against foreign military threats, particularly from the United States. In the field of
national security, through an ongoing process of mutual threat reduction, the United States
can ensure that China is a future partner and not a danger to the interests of America and its allies. The
greatest benefit is that the U.S. would avoid a military conflict for the foreseeable future with a country
it now considers a major potential adversary. Other critical security benefits to the United States and its
allies include: Significantly reducing China's current and potential military threat to Taiwan,
thus securing Taiwan's democracy; Utilizing China's considerable influence with North Korea to curb
Pyongyang's nuclear weapon and missile development programs; Increasing security cooperation with
China on both regional and global issues, allowing the United States to leverage Chinese
capabilities for meeting common transnational threats such as climate change, energy insecurity, pandemic
disease, cyberterrorism and nuclear proliferation; Curtailing cyberattacks by the Chinese
military on U.S.-based targets as well as enforcing stringent measures against private individuals and groups in China that
engage in cyber-hacking; Having China submit its maritime disputes in the South and East China Seas to an
independent international judicial body to prevent festering conflicts over uninhabited islands and energy
resources from escalating to armed conflict; and Reducing the scope, scale, and tempo of China's
military modernization programs by discrediting the rationale for conducting a focused anti-
U.S. buildup, especially since the country has so many other pressing material needs. In his second term, President Obama
should seize the opportunity created by the emergence of China's new leadership to stabilize
U.S.-China relations -- by pursuing a diplomatic strategy that minimizes conflict, achieves
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greater mutually beneficial Sino-American cooperation, and significantly expands trade and
investment between the two countries. This approach would enable the United States to maintain an effective
military presence in the Asia Pacific in coming years, despite defense budget cuts, while also rebalancing economic and political
resources to the region to ensure stability and mutual prosperity.
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2NC/1NR Extensions
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Uniqueness
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Relations High Now
US-Sino relations are improving after successful summit
Roberts and Goldberg 6/9 (Dan and Suzanne, Dan is the Guardian's Washington Bureau
chief, covering politics and US national affairs, Suzanne is is the US environment correspondent
of the Guardian and is based in Washington DC. She has won several awards for her work in the
Middle East, and in 2003 covered the US invasion of Iraq from Baghdad. She is author of Madam
President, about Hillary Clinton's historic run for White House. US-China summit ends with
accord on all but cyber-espionage For the Guardian UK, June 9, 2013.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/09/us-china-summit-barack-obama-xi-jinping)

Meeting in the baking heat of a Palm Springs country estate, the two leaders broke with protocol for two days of informal talks
aimed at creating a new spirit of co-operation between the world's two economic superpowers. The common ground they found,
however, was not quite what the White House expected as talks on cyber-espionage were overshadowed by revelations of
Washington's own cyberwarfare strategy. Both leaders discussed the issue for several hours, according to aides, but the best that
the US was able to boast afterwards was that Beijing was no longer unaware of the depth of feeling on the subject. "It's quite
obvious now that the Chinese senior leadership understand clearly the importance of this issue to the United States," said Obama's
national security adviser, Tom Donilon. Washington stressed that it wished only to discuss "cyber-enabled economic theft" the
theft of intellectual by entities based in China of property and other kinds of property in the public and private realm rather than
broader espionage and surveillance activity, but the nuance may have been lost. Xi chastised US media for failing to report equally
on attacks made against China. The two leaders appeared to make progress in other areas, seemingly
aware they faced increasingly shared challenges and responsibilities. Under the climate deal,
the US and China the world's two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases said they would work with other
countries to reduce the fastest growing source of emissions, the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) used in air conditioners and
refrigerators. HFCs are an extremely potent class of greenhouse gas up to 1,000 times more so than carbon dioxide but they
clear out of the atmosphere relatively quickly, in about 10 or 15 years. That short lifespan means cutting HFCs can deliver almost
immediate results, avoiding up to six times as much warming by 2050 as reductions in carbon dioxide. The White House said on its
website that the deal reached on Saturday could potentially reduce the equivalent of some 90 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide by 2050,
or about a year's worth of current greenhouse gas emissions. "Left unabated, HFC emissions growth could grow to nearly 20% of
carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, a serious climate mitigation concern," the White House said. The potential significance
of the co-operation between Washington and Beijing on climate issues could be even broader.
China has in the past argued that cutting emissions would compromise its economic growth, while the US has typically has
countered that it would not act on climate change until China did. In the case of HFCs, there was already momentum building
towards such a deal before Obama and Xi's meeting. More than 100 countries have shown support for using the Montreal protocol,
an agreement reached in 1987 to phase out substances that were depleting the ozone layer, to act on reducing HFCs. Donilon said
the Chinese also reaffirmed their anxiety about nuclear proliferation in North Korea and pledged
to work together to encourage regional talks. "I think what you have essentially underway here is a shared
threat analysis and a shared analysis as to what the implications and impact would be of
North Korea pursuing a nuclear weapons programme," said Donilon. Detailed quotes were less forthcoming
from the Chinese delegation. Xi's senior foreign policy adviser, Yang Jiechi, simply said the two leaders "talked about co-operation
and did not shy away from differences". The bonhomie was also punctured by a last-minute decision from the Chinese delegation
not to stay with Obama at the historic Sunnylands estate, favouring a downtown hotel reputedly to minimise the risk of electronic
eavesdropping.
Recent California summit meeting proves Obama and Xi are pursuing a more
collaborative partnership
The Japan Times 13 (Getting U.S.-China relations right June 15, 2013
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2013/06/15/editorials/getting-u-s-china-relations-
right/#.Ucsb3T7rk2s)

At first glance, there is a great deal of convergence between what Chinese President Xi Jinping wanted and what U.S. President
Barack Obama sought at their summit last week in California. Dig a little deeper, however, and the differences were every bit as
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important as those similarities. While both men wish to put the U.S.-China relationship on a stable path,
there is great difference in the way that each seeks to accomplish that important objective. How they reconcile that
divergence will have a profound impact on East Asian relations in general, and the U.S.-China
relationship in particular. As they seek that common ground, Japan must not feel threatened. Positive relations between
Washington and Beijing do not come at Tokyos expense. Presidents Obama and Xi met in Sunnylands, California, last week to set a
tone to the relationship. Historically, such meetings were formal and stolid affairs. Tightly scripted events, there was rarely a real
exchange of views between the two leaders. They read talking points, hit their marks and demonstrated to the world and their
respective publics that the two governments can do business together. The one exception to this pattern was the summit
between U.S. President George W. Bush and Chinese President Jiang Zemin at Mr. Bushs Crawford, Texas, ranch at the end of Mr.
Jiangs tenure. Mr. Xis readiness to try this sort of summitry early in his term suggests he is a different type of leader and has
already mustered power over the Chinese bureaucracy to allow him to engage the U.S. president in such a manner. Plainly,
however, the traditional relationship has limits. Issues of common concern are expanding, and while the two leaderships are
increasingly engaged, the two sides more frequently talk at each other rather than with each other. This meeting, with its
informality and its emphasis on acquainting the two men with each other, is designed to
change the context in which America and China engage each other. A personal relationship is no
substitute for the hard slog of diplomacy, but it can be a cornerstone of constructive bilateral relations. At this point, differences
between the two sides rear their heads. Both governments have studied history. They know that rising
powers have traditionally been revisionist powers, challenging the existing political order and the reigning
hegemon. Both sides also know that unless carefully tended, such transitions are messy and
often violent. The United States and China, and every other country in Asia, have too much to
lose to allow history to repeat itself. Beijing is calling for a new type of great power relations. What that means in
specific terms is not clear, but inferring from Chinese behavior and commentary leads to the conclusion that it seeks to be the
leading power in Asia and wants Washington, and other regional governments, to respect or defer to Chinese wishes. If Beijing
wants a sphere of influence, then it will be disappointed. For its part, the U.S. wants Beijing to take a higher profile role in the
region and the world, and it sees those responsibilities as perfectly compatible with traditional relations among nations. China is
merely one great power among several. Indeed, the appropriateness of the very label great power depends on a countrys
willingness to assume those responsibilities, whether the issue in question is cybersecurity, climate change, North Korea, Irans
nuclear ambitions or setting rules for resolutions of disputes. In the past, the U.S. has called on China to be a
responsible stakeholder, which is the rubric it used during the second Bush administration to encourage Beijing to be
part of the solution rather than part of the problem. Thus far, Chinas preferred response is to assert that it
remains a developing country whose resources, like its influence, are limited, and that they are both best used dealing with Chinas
internal problems. That is a convenient explanation, and one that fits Chinese preferences, but it is the very antithesis of a great
power. In short, the U.S. seeks a new relationship with China. China wants a new type of
relations, one that distinguishes Beijings relations with Washington from its ties with other countries. China believes it is a great
power by definition. The U.S. counters that such status is a function of behavior, not a countrys mere attributes. In the U.S.
formulation, with power comes responsibility. Given the stakes, the entire world needs the U.S. and China
to succeed in creating a working relationship. There is a temptation, however, among Japanese, to see a working
U.S.-China relationship coming at the expense of the special relationship that Japan has with the U.S. Nothing could be further from
the truth. Japan and the U.S. are allies and are bound by 60 years of close cooperation, the sharing of values, interests and concerns.
We are true partners. A good U.S.-China relationship is good for Japan, and a better understanding of the two countries interests
and concerns should reduce tension between them and with Japan. We need to have more trust in our partner and ally, just as we
ask it to trust in us when we engage governments and the U.S. is not at the table.
Now is the perfect time to revitalize US-Sino relations.
Pei 12 (Minxin, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident
senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, NEW YORK TIMES, Nov. 13,
2012, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/14/opinion/the-us-
china-reset.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print)

THE political calendars of the United States and China follow different cycles, but once every
two decades Chinas leadership transition occurs simultaneously with the U.S. presidential
election. So now, with President Obamas re-election and Xi Jinpings anointing as chief of the
Chinese Communist Party, both countries have an opportunity to take stock of the bilateral
relationship.
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China and the U.S. are worker toward a more cooperative relationship now
Agence France Presse 13 (May 24, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

China and the United States are hoping for a new chance to set the course for smoother relations
through a secluded desert summit as the Asian power's leader Xi Jinping projects a more confident style. Xi and
Barack Obama will meet June 7-8 at the tony Sunnylands resort in Rancho Mirage, California, their first encounter since the Chinese
president took power and three months ahead of their first scheduled run-in at the Group of 20 summit in Russia. The talks
come amid rows between the world's two largest economies over issues that include China's
alleged cyber-hacking, but the two sides expect the encounter to be less about specifics and
more about setting a tone.
The U.S. and Chinas economic ties promise improving relations
U.S. DOD American Forces Press Service 13 (THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE'S
AMERICAN FORCES PRESS SERVICE, May 22,
2013, US FED NEWS, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

But both countries must also recognize the major roles they both play in the region, he said. "The Pacific is big enough for all of us,"
Locklear told the group, borrowing a quote from both former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Chinese President Xi
Jinping. Nowhere is this more evident than in the United States' and China's economic relationship - one that
Locklear said draws them together and positively affects the entire region. The admiral noted other
promising developments that are solidifying this foundation: China's growing participation in the
international community, its commitment to a denuclearized Korean Peninsula and its efforts
to address HIV/AIDS and pandemic diseases, among them. Meanwhile, China is demonstrating "a real appetite to
deepen the military-to-military dialogue and build on those areas on which we converge," Locklear said. The goal, he said, is to
continually improve the channels of communication and to demonstrate practical cooperation
on issues that matter to both sides.
US & China are overcoming past conflicts and developing a productive
relationship.
Ide 13 (William, staff writer, VOICE OF AMERICA NEWS, May 24, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013,
from Lexis/Nexis)

Xie Tao, a professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University, said that while mutual suspicion is running high now in
the relationship, the upcoming meeting could be an opportunity to rebuild trust. "I think Mr. Xi,
unlike Hu Jintao, he is a leader of some kind of personality," Xie remarked. "He has his own style. And I think that American
media may like that style and President Obama may like Mr. Xi's personality. It's important that the two build up a personal
rapport." The location of the meeting also could help, he added. "I think that maybe staying away from that official
place, Washington D.C., and getting away from this major media, the White House
correspondents, might be a good thing," Xie said.
We are entering a new historical period of strong relations between the U.S.
and China
Shanghai Daily 13 (SHANGHAI DAILY BENCHMARK, May 23, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013,
from Lexis/Nexis)

"President Obama and President Xi will hold in-depth discussions on a wide range of bilateral,
regional and global issues," the White House said in a statement. "They will review progress and
challenges in US-China relations over the past four years and discuss ways to enhance
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cooperation, while constructively managing our differences, in the years ahead," it said. Chinese foreign
ministry spokesman Hong Lei said that China was willing to work with the United States to strengthen
dialogue and cooperation in relations, which he said were "at a new historical period." "Of
course, some differences exist between China and the United States, which require proper and active management by both sides,"
Hong said "This year, Sino-US relations have got off to a good start and are facing an important opportunity for development."
US-Sino relations are in an important new phase.
Xinhua News Agency 13 (XINHUA NEWS AGENCY, Apr. 16, 2013, BBC Monitoring Asia
Pacific - Political, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday [15 April] met with Chinese and U.S. governors, calling for deeper
regional cooperation between the two countries. Relations between China and the United States
are currently at "an important phase that connects the past and the future," Xi told the governors
attending the second China-U.S. governors' forum. Xi recalled his latest telephone discussion with U.S. President Barack Obama,
saying they agreed on the direction for building a bilateral cooperative partnership and
developing a new type of relations between big powers.
Obama and Xis summit is a crucial step forward in US-Sino relations.
China Daily European Edition 13 (CHINA DAILY EUROPEAN EDITION, May 22, 2013,
Retrieved May 24, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

The meeting between US President Barack and Chinese President will be a seminal event in Sino-US relations
as well as in the relations of the world, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said on Tuesday. "I am very encouraged
by the announcement that the two presidents will meet, and especially by the agenda that has been announced," Kissinger said in a
speech delivered at a forum entitled "US-China Economic Relations in the Next Decade", sponsored by the China-
United States Exchange Foundation and held in the headquarters of Asia Society. It "specifically emphasizes the long
range relationship, the review of recent interactions, and the definition of long range goals,
which could make that meeting a seminal event in Sino-US relations, and also in the relations
of the world," said the 89-year-old Kissinger.
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Now Key Time For Relations
Now is a key time to improve U.S. relations with China
Gross 13 (Donald, senior associate at the Pacific Forum of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), a former State Department official, and author of The China Fallacy,
Mar. 19, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013 from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/donald-gross/us-
china-relations_b_2891183.html?view=print&comm_ref=false)

In his second term, President Barack Obama has a historic opportunity to improve U.S.
relations with China. Incoming President Xi Jinping will welcome American overtures and
policies that assist China in addressing its serious domestic problems resulting from rapid
economic development -- among them environmental degradation, severe economic
inequality and a weak social safety net.
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Competing over Latin America Now
Both China and the U.S. are in economic competition over Latin America
Mallen 13 (Patricia Rey, staff writer, INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS TIMES, May 30, 2013,
Retrieved May 30, 2013 from http://www.ibtimes.com/latin-lovers-china-us-both-vying-
increase-influence-trade-latin-america-caribbean-1284839#)

The battle is on. The world's two largest economic superpowers, China and the United States, are making moves
on Latin America, hoping to gain more geopolitical influence in a booming region. U.S. Vice President
Joseph Biden arrived in Rio de Janeiro on Wednesday, while Chinese President Xi Jinping just
landed in the Caribbean island nation of Trinidad and Tobago and is following closely in Bidens steps. Bidens visit to
Brazil marks the end of a six-day swing through the region, which included stops in Colombia and Trinidad and Tobago. Xis trip to
Trinidad, Costa Rica and Mexico is the first since the formal transition of power ended in China in March. These parallel journeys
from the worlds top powers to Latin America emphasize how the regions vast natural resources and steady
economic growth are making it an increasingly attractive trading partner. China's designs on Latin
America have long been apparent, with imports to the Asian giant surging from $3.9 billion in 2000 to
$86 billion in 2011, as calculated by the Inter-American Development Bank. Now, China seeks to start buying massive
amounts of soy beans, copper and iron ore from Latin nations, reports the South China Morning Post. The U.S., on the other
hand, which has had deep involvement in many Latin American nations for the past two centuries, has nonetheless been less
than consistent in its recent trade policies, said Boston University economist Kevin Gallagher, who has written
about China's incursions in the region. The onus is on the U.S. to come up with a more flexible, attractive offer, but thats not so
easy because it doesnt have the deep pockets like it used to, he told Bloomberg. During his visit to Colombia, Biden
signed a two-year free trade agreement between the countries, calling it just the beginning.
The VP said, at the end of a particularly tense discussion about trade in Trinidad on Tuesday, that the U.S. is deeply
invested in the region, and wants to expand that investment with more agreements. Our goal is not simply growth, but
growth that reaches everyone, he added. In Rio de Janeiro, Biden met with President Dilma Rousseff and invited her to a meeting
in Washington to finalize a strategic accord. Biden mentioned being particularly interested in oil and energy companies like state-
owned Petroleo Brasilero, better known as Petrobras (NYSE: PBR), reported Brazilian newspaper O Globo. Biden mentioned that
trade with Brazil could be increased by 400 percent from the current $100 billion, if trade between the two largest Western
Hemisphere nations included biofuels and aviation. Meanwhile, Chinas blossoming relationships with the
region evince a shift in its strategy; indeed, in the past Beijing deferred to U.S. economic
interests in Latin America, due to geographic proximity, even referring to the region as
Washingtons backyard. But now, in a globalized world, China seems to view the entire
planet as its own "backyard." You dont hear that anymore from Xis team, said Evan Ellis, professor at the National
Defense University in Washington, D.C.
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China Pursuing Latin America Now
China wants to increase its economic ties with Latin America
Leiteritz 13 (Ralf J. PhD, profesor asociado de las facultades de Ciencia Politica, Gobierno, y
Relaciones Internacionales, Universidaddel Rosario, Bogot, Colombia, REVISTA COLOMBIA
INTERNACIONAL, Jan. 1, 2012, Retrieved Apr. 23, 2013, from LEXIS/NEXIS)

China pursues a pragmatic course when it comes to the selection of strategic allies in the developing
world that is similar to the approach it follows developing "win-win" economic cooperation agreements. Allies are not selected on
the basis of political characteristics such as regime type or respect for human rights. As a result, the current polarization between
radical left, social- democratic, and right-wing governments in Latin America is of little importance to China when it comes to the
question of whether to engage with them or not. In turn, countries with diverse political and economic
backgrounds such as Peru, Mexico and Chile on the one hand, and Cuba, Bolivia, and Venezuela on the
other have received similar treatment from China. The important factor is the willingness to
establish economic relations and the search for common, mutually beneficial interests.
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Links
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General
US competition with China in Latin America will hurt relations.
Kelly 9 (Jason, pundit, Dec. 22, 2009, Retrieved May 30, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

The interests of the US and China are further apart than ever before because you have
essentially a declining superpower the United States and you have a rising superpower China,
and the current superpower the US will obviously try to contain the rise of China, and China
will want to have more say in global affairs and you can see their expansion everywhere in
Latin America, in the Middle East even in the Indian Ocean, in East Africa and so forth. So that
will lead to tensions.
The plan worsens already existing tensions between the US & China over Latin
America
Scimia 13 (Emanuele, journalist and geopolitical analyst, 2012, Retrieved May 30, 2013, from
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/NG18Cb01.html)

The Pacific Alliance perhaps best epitomizes the complexity of the geostrategic game that pits
China against the United States in Central and South America: this is yet another sub-regional
bloc, which Chile, Peru, Mexico and Colombia inaugurated in June, and which accounts for 35%
of the Latin America's gross domestic product (GDP) and 50% of the overall Latin-American
trade.
China will view the plan as containment, worsening relations.
Chase 11 (Michael S., The Jamestown Foundation, CHINA BRIEF Volume: 11 Issue: 18, Sept. 30,
2011, Retrieved May 30, 2013, from
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_
ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38471&cHash=d7a755770bc5a728bb955e31a340abf8)

No matter what strategic assurances the United States provides, some in China are concerned
the United States is becoming increasingly uneasy about Chinas emergence as a great power.
Specifically, despite Washingtons rhetorical emphasis on the importance of a stable and constructive U.S.-China relationship, they
are deeply concerned the United States ultimately will attempt to delay or prevent Chinas emergence as a
great power because it sees a stronger China as a threat to its continued preeminence. Some even fear
Washington really intends to contain China. Chinese suspicions about U.S. strategic intentions are longstanding
[2]. What is new is that a changing strategic context and series of recent events appear to be
intensifying Chinas concerns.
A US-China rivalry is beginning over Latin America- the plan pushes tensions
over the brink
Costa 13 (Luis, Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, U.S. Chins Relations:
Should Washington Be Concerned Over Growing Chinese Trade in Latin America? For Policymic.
June 11, 2013 http://www.policymic.com/articles/48673/u-s-chins-relations-should-
washington-be-concerned-over-growing-chinese-trade-in-latin-america)

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On March 16, the Inter-American Development Bank announced that it would receive $2
billion from China for an investment fund to grant loans to both public and private entities in Latin America
and the Caribbean. The move is representative of China's increased efforts to boost investment in
Latin America, sparking arguments that a "U.S.-China rivalry" over Latin America could be
imminent . Indeed, China's investment in Latin America has grown with impressive speed over the past few
years, making it the fastest-growing investor in the region. In fact, the PRC has already overtaken the U.S. as
Brazil's largest trading partner, and total trade between Latin America and China has been growing
faster than trade between Latin America and the United States (in 2012, the values were estimated at 8%
and 6.2%, respectively). Today, according to a report released by the UN's Economic Commission for Latin America and the
Caribbean (ECLAC), China is Latin America's third-largest trading partner, behind only the U.S. and the EU, respectively. The same
report predicts that by 2015 China will have surpassed the EU, remaining second only to the United States. Yet how worried should
the U.S. be over these figures? One thing to take into consideration is the fact that the U.S. still retains a comfortable lead against
China in absolute terms: Washington exchanges $800 billion in goods and services with Latin America annually, more than three
times the region's trade with China. Moreover, the fact that most of China's confirmed investments in Latin America target the
extraction of natural resources raises questions about the sustainability of China's investment in the region. It means that a
sudden change in commodity prices could have serious consequences for Chinese foreign
direct investment into the region. Finally, according to ECLAC data, most of China's trade with Latin America has been
concentrated in a small group of countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, and Peru. This is a key fact that must be taken into
consideration when evaluating China's involvement in the region as a whole.
17
Venezuela
China is increasing trade with Venezuela now- the plan will increase already
existing tension in the region
Merco Press 13 (South Atlantic News Agency, China/Latam trade expanded 8% in 2012 and
regions deficit jumped to 6.6bn May 22, 2013 http://en.mercopress.com/2013/05/22/china-
latam-trade-expanded-8-in-2012-and-region-s-deficit-jumped-to-6.6bn)

China's trade with Venezuela, its fourth-largest trade partner in Latin America, grew by 5.7 billion last year
to 23.7 billion. That was the largest increase in real terms. Chinese exports to Venezuela grew by 2.8 billion,
also the largest growth in real terms and the second-largest increase in percentage terms (43.3%). Venezuelan exports to China
grew by 2.9 billion to 14.4 billion, the largest increase in real terms in Latin America and the largest in percentage terms among
China's top five trade partners. Last year was not a fluke, but cemented a growing trend in Chinese-
Venezuelan trade. In 2010, Chinese exports to Venezuela were 3.6 billion, or three times less than last year. Venezuelan
exports to China that year were 6.6 billion, or less than half of last year's levels.
18
Mexico
China is focusing on Mexico- more U.S. involvement there will heighten tension
Regenstreif 13 (Gary, staff writer. The looming U.S.-China rivalry over Latin America
Reuters. June 12, 2013 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/06/12/the-looming-u-s-
china-rivalry-over-latin-america/)

China has particular interest in Mexico, the regions second-largest market. Beijing has been
competing with Mexico to supply the U.S. market with manufactured goods. But China is now looking to work with
Mexico City investing in infrastructure, mining and energy because of the expected reforms
that would open the oil industry to foreign investment. There are obstacles ahead. One irritation that
President Enrique Pea Nieto shared with Xi is that though Mexico posted a trade surplus with its global partners, it ran a big deficit
with China. China is looking for even more however. It is eager to pursue a free trade agreement with Mexico, but
Mexico City said last week it was too soon. Meanwhile, Mexicos trade with the United States continues to flourish and it is due to
displace Canada as the largest U.S. trade partner by the end of the decade, according to the Dialogue.
19
Cuba
China benefits for the US embargo on Cuba- lifting it will cause tension
Nash 13 (Paul, contributor for the Diplomatic Courier, How the Chinese are Helping to
Transform Cuba, Again May 24, 2013
http://www.diplomaticourier.com/news/regions/brics/1465)

China is Cubas second largest trading partner after Venezuela, and Cuba is Chinas largest
trading partner in the Caribbean, with bilateral trade now standing at around $2 billion.
Beijing wants to help Cuba push through market-oriented economic reforms, knowing from its
own experience over the past three decades that private sector entrepreneurial activity can stimulate foreign investment,
build national capital and promote domestic consumption. To this end, China has granted Cuba numerous long-
term low or interest-free loans to support development and maintain financial and social
stability through the reform process. It has also undertaken significant technology transfers
and entered into joint ventures in farming, light industry, and tourism. Cuba has started the reform
process focussed on its biggest export industries. It has, for example, begun restructuring its ailing sugar industry by abolishing the
sugar ministry and creating Azcuba, a state holding company consisting of 13 provincial sugar companies that operate 56 sugar mills
and 850 sugarcane farms. Azcuba signed foreign investment agreements with companies from Brazil and Britain in 2012 to
modernize harvesting equipment and build biomass energy plants. Cuba exports about 400,000 tonnes of sugar annually to China,
more than half the amount it produces for domestic consumption. Chinas interest in Cuba is, of course, inseparable from the
Caribbeans natural resources and those of Latin America more broadly. The Sino-Cuban economic fraternity, from
Beijings viewpoint, is largely pragmatic rather than idealistic. Beijing has demonstrated that it will conduct
business with left-leaning governments like Venezuela and Ecuador as readily as with right-leaning governments like Chile and
Colombia. The Sino-Cuban partnership may represent a lost opportunity for the United States in
promoting liberal democracy in the Western Hemisphere. But it may also represent a path to normalized relations if China can help
Cubas economy reform such that it, like Vietnams, no longer justifies the continuation of a decades-old U.S. trade embargo on the
basis that Cubas economy is dominated or controlled by international communism.
20
Internal Links
21
Relations Still Unstable
Maintaining the status quo is tough in US-Sino relations.
Pei 13 (Minxin, professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident
senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, NEW YORK TIMES, Nov. 13,
2012, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/14/opinion/the-us-
china-reset.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print)

However, maintaining a fragile status quo is becoming increasingly difficult. Several trends
changes in relative power in Chinas favor, the one-sided focus on the military aspect of Americas
Asia pivot, escalating territorial disputes that could drag in the United States and Chinas
military modernization are exacerbating mutual distrust. Xi and his colleagues need to initiate a policy
reset to signal to the second Obama administration that Beijing seeks to put ties on a more solid footing.
22
Tensions Spiral Out of Control
Tensions between the US and China set the stage for major confrontations in
Latin America.
Hilton 13 (Isabel, formerly Latin America editor of The Independent newspaper and
is editor of www.chinadialogue.net, CHINA IN LATIN AMERICA: HEGEMONIC CHALLENGE?, Feb.
2013, Retrieved Apr. 23, 2013, from
http://www.peacebuilding.no/var/ezflow_site/storage/origina
l/application/26ff1a0cc3c0b6d5692c8afbc054aad9.pdf)

Chinas presence in Latin America is unlikely to diminish and will continue to affect its regional
partners for the foreseeable future. Although this undoubtedly entails a loss of U.S. influence in the region, both China and the
U.S. have so far sought cooperation rather than confrontation. In the context of the Obama administrations pivot to Asia,
however, and the latent, long-term strategic competition between China and the United States, there is potential for
increasing competition for influence in the future. An escalation of tensions between China
and U.S. allies in the South China or East China Sea could prompt China to raise retaliatory
tensions in the U.S. backyard. At that point, the traditional Latin American allies of the U.S. could face some
uncomfortable choices.
23
Economic Ties are Key
Economic engagement is key to relations
Thai News Service 13 (THAI NEWS SERVICE, May 24, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from
Lexis/Nexis)

While addressing the same function, Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai said
economic relationship has always been a "major pillar" of bilateral ties and should play an
even greater role in building a new-type of bilateral relationship. Both countries should
deepen their economic engagement and identify new areas of cooperation, as well as new
areas of convergence of interests, including clean energy, climate change and infrastructure
building. PNA
24
Loss of Chinese Soft Power in Latin America = Increase in Hard
Power
If Chinese soft power suffers, its hard power will increase, heightening tensions
in the region
Wade 13 (Robert H, staff writer, ECONOMIC & POLITICAL WEEKLY, Mar. 9, 2013, Retrieved
Apr. 24, 2013, from LEXIS/NEXIS)

In a civilised world both parties to the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands dispute would agree to submit their claims to the International Court
of Justice; but neither side is willing to consider such a move. There is no more dangerous (leading to irrationality)
expression of a concern with reputation than the desire to revenge a humiliation - a desire
abundantly shared on both sides of the China-Japan sea. Meanwhile, wisdom on the Chinese side lies in
recognising the truth of Joseph Nye's point, "Unless China is able to attract allies by successfully developing
its 'soft power', the rise in its 'hard military' and economic power is likely to frighten its
neighbours, who will coalesce to balance its power" (Nye 2013: 9).
Unless Chinas soft power grows, its hard power will dominate, cause conflict,
and prevent cooperation on key international problems
Nye 13 (Joseph S. Nye, Jr., professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and a former Pentagon
official, THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE, Jan. 28, 2013, Retrieved Apr. 24, 2013, from
LEXIS/NEXIS)

Asia is not a monolith, and its internal balance of power should be the key to our strategy. Japan, India,
Vietnam and other countries do not want to be dominated by China, and thus welcome an American presence in the region.
Unless China is able to attract allies by successfully developing its ''soft power,'' the rise in its
''hard'' military and economic power is likely to frighten its neighbors, who will coalesce to
balance its power. A significant American military and economic presence helps to maintain the Asian balance of power and
shape an environment that provides incentives for China to cooperate. After the 2008-9 financial crisis, some Chinese mistakenly
believed that America was in permanent decline and that this presented new opportunities. A result was that China worsened its
relations with Japan, India, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines - a misstep that confirmed that ''only China can contain
China.'' But America's rebalancing toward Asia should not be aggressive. We should heed
Kennan's warning against overmilitarization and ensure that China doesn't feel encircled or
endangered. The world's two largest economies have much to gain from cooperation on
fighting climate change, pandemics, cyberterrorism and nuclear proliferation.
25
Impacts
26
Impact Magnifiers
Economic conflicts between the U.S. and China magnify every skirmish- the
impacts will be intensified
Ikenson 13 (Dan, Forbes Contributor, Jan. 29, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013 from
http://www.forbes.com/sites/danikenson/2013/01/29/reading-the-tea-leaves-on-u-s-china-
economic-relations/)

That appears to be no longer the case. Although the massive economic relationship which reached a record half trillion dollars of
trade and investment flows in 2012 is still mutually beneficial, the future of U.S.-China relations based on
developments over the most recent six years appears more problematic. Today, it seems, most
bilateral economic frictions are magnified through the prism of those geopolitical and
philosophical differences, making controversies seem larger and more intractable.
2. The US-China relationship is the most important relationship of the 21st century.
Dan Ikenson, (Forbes Contributor), Jan. 29, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013 from
http://www.forbes.com/sites/danikenson/2013/01/29/reading-the-tea-leaves-on-u-s-china-
economic-relations/
The claim that the U.S.-China relationship will be the 21st centurys most important has become
a clich repeated at policy gatherings in Washington and Beijing. It also happens to be the truth.
27
Laundry List
Strong US-China relations solve a laundry list of world crises.
Lexis/Nexis)

The two countries have different cultures and are at different stages of development, one being the largest
developed nation and the other being the largest developing nation in the world. Each is of substantial economic size,
and can contribute to global economic activities in different ways, said Tung, founding chairman of the China-
United States Exchange Foundation, a non- profit organization. Both countries want to establish a pattern of
secure, high- quality and sustainable growth and employment for their people. Working
together, the two countries can do more to contribute towards global economic recovery and
financial stability, he said. Both countries can collaborate to solve a broad set of global challenges in fields
such as energy security, food sufficiency, environmental protection, climate change, nuclear
weapons proliferation and the efforts to fight terrorism, said Tung, who served as the first chief executive of
the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR).
US-China cooperation can solves piracy, terrorism, prolif and disease
DOD American Forces Press Service 13 (The U.S. Department of Defense's American
Forces Press Service, May 22, 2013, US Fed News, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

Gen. Fang Fenghu, China's top military officer, identified counterterrorism, antipiracy,
humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, logistics and military medicine as potential areas
of cooperation during a visit to Beijing by Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Looking to the
future, Locklear said, it's vital that both China and the United States recognize their responsibilities
as regional and global leaders. "We must move beyond our individual differences to bring consensus to issues that
threaten regional stability and future prosperity," he said. That includes partnering with other nations to
address regional security challenges such as piracy, terrorism, proliferation and pandemic
disease.
US-Sino relations solve Korea, Iran, energy security, and climate change
Campbell 13 (Kurt, chairman and chief executive of The Asia Group and on the board of the
Center for a New American Security, Apr. 22, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from
http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2013/04/22/the-mechanisms-of-the-us-china-
relationship/#axzz2UMjGr8ON)

Currently, theres probably more discussion about where and how the two countries should talk rather than what they will talk
about. Indeed, there is general agreement along corridors of power in Washington that several
critical issues including North Korea, Iran, macroeconomic policy, market access, cyber
issues, energy security and climate change require high-level attention from both sides. Some
of the most interesting decisions, however, are about the appropriate mechanisms for conducting dialogue on these very topics.
Currently, the US and China have some of the most engaged and intricate diplomatic mechanisms
of modern times.
US-Sino cooperation solves nuclear proliferation and climate change.
International Studies (CSIS), a former State Department official, and author of The China
28
Fallacy), Mar. 19, 2013, Retrieved May 24, 2013 from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/donald-
gross/us-china-relations_b_2891183.html?view=print&comm_ref=false)

Secretary of State John Kerry has emphasized the importance of U.S.-China cooperation. As Chairman of
the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he argued convincingly: "...the simple fact is that we need China, and
China needs us. We have to get this relationship right. After all, we are talking about our connection to one-sixth of humanity.
The most serious problems we face today, from nuclear proliferation to climate change, can't
be solved alone. And, economically, our futures are deeply intertwined and will remain so."
US-Sino relations solve terrorism, proliferation, and natural disasters.
China Business News 12 (CHINA BUSINESS NEWS, Sept. 20, 2012, Retrieved Apr. 24, 2013,
from LEXIS/NEXIS)

The future security and prosperity of the US will be linked to Asia more than any other place in the world,
but this is a region threatened by terrorism, nuclear proliferation, piracy and natural disasters,
he said. Strong China-US relations are vital for the region, said Panetta. He called for Washington and Beijing to look
beyond disagreements to areas where both share common concern and can work together. "We cannot let those disagreements
and challenges blind us to the great opportunities that exist," he told the military academy. "If we work together and
cooperate together, we can solve problems together."
29
Peace in Asia
US-Sino cooperation key to peace and prosperity in Asia
DOD American Forces Press Service 13 (The U.S. Department of Defense's American
Forces Press Service, May 22, 2013, US Fed News, Retrieved May 24, 2013, from Lexis/Nexis)

The United States and China, by increasing their dialogue and engagement, can build a foundation of trust
while fostering regional security and prosperity, the top U.S. commander in the region said yesterday. "While
competition between the United States and China is inevitable, conflict is not," Navy Adm. Samuel J.
Locklear III, commander of U.S. Pacific Command, told members of the National Committee for U.S. China Relations in New York.
30
Global Economy
US-Sino relations would boost the global economy

The best way to overcome the "China threat" and advance U.S. interests in East Asia is by
achieving a stable peace with China through the diplomatic resolution of outstanding
economic and security conflicts between the two countries. By successfully negotiating a
bilateral U.S.-China free trade agreement and including China in the regional free trade area of
the Asia Pacific known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the U.S. would unleash unprecedented
levels of international trade and investment. These agreements will tear down trade barriers
to American goods and services, achieve far greater transparency in China's regulatory
practices, and enable the United States to benefit from the economic dynamism of Asia - the
new "engine" for global growth. Improving relations between Washington and Beijing would
also strengthen the advocates of human rights and democracy within China.
US-China cooperation key to the global economy.
Lexis/Nexis)

U.S. and China can cooperate more to resolve a range of challenges to advance global
economic recovery, said Tung Chee Hwa, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political
Consultative Conference (CPPCC), China's political advisory body, here Wednesday. Over the past few decades, the economic
relationship between the United States and China has developed "from virtually nonexistent
to becoming a highly interdependent and mutually beneficial" one. The United States and China are the
two largest trading nations globally, and are each other's second largest trading partners, Tung said at a seminar on U.S.- China
economic relations hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank.
31
Poor Relations = War
Poor US-Sino relations cause a new cold war.

Without an improvement in U.S.-China relations, however, there exists a grave risk that
simmering conflicts between the two countries could worsen considerably and lead to a new
Cold War. Heightened concerns in the United States, in recent days, about cyberattacks
originating in China underscore this danger.
Poor US-China relations risk war with China.

The prognostications of China hawks have nevertheless increased the possibility that the
widespread belief in a coming war with China could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. As each
country "hedges" and ramps up preparations for war, its actions stimulate greater military
modernization and more aggressive actions by the other side, magnifying the risk of conflict.
32
Nuclear Prolif= Nuclear War
Nuclear Prolif increases the risk of nuclear war
Nunn 13 (Sam, Senator, CQ TRANSCRIPTIONS, Jan. 31, 2013, Retrieved Apr. 24, 2013, from
LEXIS/NEXIS)

President Reagan said it often and said it well: A nuclear war cannot be won and it must not be fought. Mr. Chairman, as this committee knows, the risk
of a global nuclear war have thankfully, substantially -- substantially declined since the breakup of the Soviet Union. But with nine nations
possessing nuclear weapons, with nuclear weapons usable material and knowledge spread
across the globe, and with terrorists ready to use a nuclear weapon if they manage to buy,
steal or make one, we face enormous risks with a -- that a nuclear weapon will be used. If
proliferation continues in countries like Iran and North Korea, and if we do not secure nuclear materials and weapons globally, the
odds of use will go up even more.
33
2NC/1NR Blocks
34
Uniqueness
35
A2: Relations doomed- Snowden
Snowdens released damaged relations, but experts say it will blow over
Wee 6/25 (Sui-Lee, correspondent for Thomson Reuters. China-U.S. ties under strain, but not
imperiled by Snowden for The Global Post. June 25, 2013.
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/thomson-reuters/130625/top-china-paper-hits-
back-at-us-accusations-snowden)

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's ties with the United States are coming under strain over the flight of
wanted U.S. spy agency contractor Edward Snowden from Hong Kong, with Beijing's main state
newspaper praising him on Tuesday for "tearing off Washington's sanctimonious mask". The White House said the decision by the
Chinese territory to allow Snowden to leave was "a deliberate choice by the government to release a fugitive despite a valid arrest
warrant, and that decision unquestionably has a negative impact on the U.S.-China relationship. The overseas edition of China's
People's Daily, which does not spell out official policy but can reflect the government's thinking, said Beijing could not accept "this
kind of dissatisfaction and opposition" from the United States. But experts on both sides say the tirade should
quickly blow over, and that neither country will be keen to let ties deteriorate permanently
just weeks after a successful summit meeting between President Barack Obama and
President Xi Jinping . "China does not want this to affect the overall situation, the central government has always
maintained a relatively calm and restrained attitude because Sino-U.S. relations are important," said Zhao Kejing, a
professor of international relations at China's elite Tsinghua University. "The United States has no reason to exert greater pressure,
otherwise it would lose moral support." Kenneth Lieberthal, a China expert at the Brookings Institution who was an Asia adviser in
Bill Clinton's White House, said sanctioning Beijing was "inconceivable" and linking Snowden to other issues would undo careful
policy aimed at handling issues in separate lanes to avoid big ruptures in ties. "Over the years, we've sought to
prevent any serious disagreement in one issue area from spilling over and degrading the
entire relationship," he said. At the summit earlier this month, Obama confronted Xi over allegations of cyber-theft. Xi
earlier told a news conference with Obama that China itself was a victim of cyber attacks but that the two sides should work
together to develop a common approach. Snowden's revelations of widespread snooping by the U.S. National Security Agency in
China and Hong Kong have given Beijing considerable ammunition in the tit-for-tat exchange. "In a sense, the United States has
gone from a 'model of human rights' to 'an eavesdropper on personal privacy', the 'manipulator' of the centralized power over the
international Internet, and the mad 'invader' of other countries' networks," the People's Daily said. "The world will remember
Edward Snowden," the newspaper said. "It was his fearlessness that tore off Washington's sanctimonious mask." ISOLATED CASE
The Chinese government has said it was gravely concerned by Snowden's allegations that the United States had hacked into many
networks in Hong and China, including Tsinghua University, which hosts one of the country's Internet hubs, and Chinese mobile
network companies. It has said it had taken the issue up with Washington. "Not only did the U.S. authorities not give us an
explanation and apology, it instead expressed dissatisfaction at the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region for handling things in
accordance with law," wrote Wang Xinjun, a researcher at the Academy of Military Science, in the People's Daily commentary. State
news agency Xinhua was more conciliatory in its tone. "Both Beijing and Washington fully know that an
isolated case should not be allowed to hurt one of the most critical relationships in the world,"
Xinhua said in a commentary. "It is in the interest of both countries to keep the positive momentum in bilateral relations." Xi's
new government, which took office in March, is eager to be seen on an even footing with the United
States as Beijing seeks what it calls a new "big-power" relationship with Washington that takes into account China's rise. Still,
China's academics and state media have been loud in their calls for the Obama administration to apologize to Beijing. "Being tough
is their unilateral attitude, which we can choose not to accept," said Liu Feitao, the deputy chief of U.S. studies at the China Institute
of International Studies, a top think-tank affiliated with China's foreign ministry. "The United States should not shift the real focus,"
Liu said. "This thing has nothing to do with China, except that America owes China an explanation on the cyber attack leaks by
Snowden."
Experts say Snowden incident wont affect relations
The Nation 6/26 (Thai News Service, US-China ties won't be hurt by Snowden June 26,
2013 http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/US-China-ties-wont-be-hurt-by-Snowden-
30209047.html)
36

In the larger scheme of things, the United States and China will want to move on from the episode as
quickly as possible. As University of Nottingham scholar Steve Tsang said: " The basic US-China relationship is
driven by far greater forces and the overall impact will therefore be limited. " The US registered
strong objections to the authorities in Hong Kong and China through diplomatic channels at the decision to let Snowden leave
despite an extradition request. It "noted that such behaviour is detrimental to US-Hong Kong and US-China bilateral relations", said
White House National Security Council spokesman Caitlin Hayden. While the Hong Kong government insists Snowden left of his
own will and according to the law after a provisional US arrest warrant purportedly failed to meet its judicial requirements, sources
have said that Beijing had orchestrated the move to remove a thorny issue. The fear was that it could destabilise Sino-US ties if
Snowden stayed on to fight a legal battle in Hong Kong that could last up to five years. This line of thinking was lent further heft by
Democratic Party lawmaker Albert Ho, who said yesterday he had been hired as Snowden's lawyer and had relayed a message from
a mystery intermediary telling Snowden he should leave the city. Said Ho: "I have reasons to believe that ... those who wanted him
to leave represented Beijing authorities." China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Hua Chunying did not confirm this despite
being asked thrice at a briefing. While Hong Kong enjoys autonomy under the "one country two systems" framework, Beijing has
the final say over its defence and diplomacy. Said Hong Kong-based Chinese researcher Chen Shaobo: "It is clearly a diplomatic
(issue), and therefore Beijing would be involved." Other analysts said the two powers are keen not to mar
the camaraderie created after presidents Xi Jinping and Barack Obama's tete-a-tete in
California earlier this month. Renmin University scholar Shi Yinhong said Beijing might even have informed Washington
of Snowden's departure in advance, reflecting a tacit understanding. Certainly, politicians on both sides have largely refrained from
criticising each other over the case of Snowden, who has alleged US hacking of China's mobile phone and computer networks. Hua
yesterday said China has lodged a protest with the US over this, but also stressed that it was in the interests of China
and the US to develop ties in a "stable and healthy way". Snowden's departure is a good outcome for US-
China ties in the long run, say the analysts. As Professor Anthony Saich of Harvard University said, Beijing was happy to see him leave
Hong Kong "so that it did not produce an endless running war of words between the US, Hong Kong and China". "Also, I think the
US is probably glad that Hong Kong will not be used for revelations about its surveillance activities in the Asia region," he added.
Experts say the NSA scandal will only help relations
International Studies (CSIS), a former White House and State Department official, and author of
The China Fallacy: How the U.S. Can Benefit from China's Rise and Avoid Another Cold War
(Bloomsbury, 2013), Will the NSA Revelations Harm US-China Relations? June 18, 2013. For
the Huffington Post. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/donald-gross/will-the-nsa-revelations-
_b_3450798.html)

So the critical question arises: Will the NSA revelations -- particularly the aggressive U.S. hacking of Chinese networks and
the concerted U.S. efforts to prepare offensive cyberattacks against potential adversaries including China -- torpedo the
progress made at the summit? Though columnist Joe Nocera at the New York Times argues that "the existence of Prism
will make it far more difficult to force the Chinese to get serious about stopping their own hacking," I respectfully disagree. I
believe the NSA revelations will help the U.S. and China move forward in addressing
cyberespionage issues and in so doing, strengthen their overall relations . Here's why. To be
effective, the diplomatic process for reducing tensions on security issues between Washington
and Beijing must be grounded in reality -- in truthful and factual analysis of specific threats.
Out of shared assessments of those threats, the two countries can develop measures that will
improve their mutual security. At the summit meeting in California, this is precisely how the
U.S. and China strengthened their cooperation for dealing with the nuclear threat from North
Korea. The two sides moved closer to a common assessment of the dangers posed by Pyongyang's weapon programs which then
enlarged their overlapping interests and led to a pledge to work together on implementing joint security strategies. The same can
be said for the summit agreement on hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) -- a particularly dangerous class of greenhouse gases -- where China
embraced the U.S. view that the two countries need to cooperate more closely to mitigate the risk of global warming. No such
agreement on the divisive issue of cyberespionage was remotely possible at the summit because the policy discussion was not
grounded in a realistic assessment of the threat. China denied it engaged in cyber-hacking and called itself a victim of extensive
cyberattacks. The United States portrayed China as the leading aggressor in attacking U.S. cyber networks while minimizing and
37
concealing American surveillance activities in cyberspace. In essence, both countries used misleading rhetoric to conjure up false
images of reality in order to protect their interests in pursuing cyberespionage. But the political consequences for the United States
were worse. The recent revelations of NSA's surveillance activities validate Beijing's view of itself as equally victimized by
cyberattacks and demolish the one-sided U.S. portrayal of China as the preeminent aggressor in this field.
38
Links
39
A2: No Link- Cyber security
Latin America is becoming more of a source of tension in US-China relations
than cyber security
Valencia 6/24 (Robert, New York-based political analyst and a contributing writer for Global
Voices, US and China: The Fight for Latin America June 24, 2013 for worldpolicy.org
http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2013/06/24/us-and-china-fight-latin-america)

During the first weekend of June, U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi
Jinping met in California to discuss cyber espionage and territorial claims in the Pacific Rim.
While tension on these topics has hogged the headlines, the fight for influence in another
area could be even more importantLatin America. Other emerging markets in Africa, where
China has an overwhelming influence due to foreign direct investment in mining and oil, also
offer economic opportunities, but Latin America has an abundance of natural resources,
greater purchasing power, and geographic proximity to the United States, which has long
considered Latin America as its backyard.
40
Aff Answers
41
Uniqueness
42
Relations Poor Now- Snowden
Snowdens release represents a serious setback for US-Sino relations
Pecquet 6/24 (Julian, staff writer for The Hill, US-China relations chill over Snowden for
thehill.com June 24, 2013 http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/307511-us-china-chill-
over-snowden)

The White House upbraided China on Monday for allowing Edward Snowden to board a plane
out of Hong Kong, warning the move represented a serious setback in relations. [WATCH VIDEO]
Press secretary Jay Carney blasted China in unusually blunt terms as the administration hunted for
Snowden, the leaker of National Security Agency documents who is now believed to be hiding out in Russia. Carney dismissed
Hong Kongs legal justification for allowing Snowden to leave we do not buy the suggestion that China could
not have taken action and said there would be consequences. The Chinese have
emphasized the importance of building mutual trust, Carney said. And we think that they
have dealt that effort a serious setback. If we cannot count on them to honor their legal
extradition obligations, then there is a problem. And that is a point we are making to them very directly. The
escalating tensions threaten to derail President Obamas careful outreach to newly elected Chinese President Xi Jinping, which
began earlier this month with a summit in California. A former senior NSA official said Carneys statement reflects the strong
sentiment that the Chinese did mess up on this. Theres no way around it. The Chinese messed up, the official
said. This is a real screw-up on their part, and its not helpful and was not in the same vein as the recent summit in
California [between Obama and Xi]. This does put a chill on things after the warmth of California. Theres going to need to be some
real heart to heart in the coming weeks and months.
US-China relations negatively impacted by NSA incident- Clinton explains
CBS 6/25 (CBS News, Washington D.C. Clinton: China Damaged Relationship with U.S. by
Allowing NSA Leaker to Flee June 25, 2013
http://washington.cbslocal.com/2013/06/25/clinton-china-damaged-relationship-with-u-s-by-
allowing-nsa-leaker-to-flee/)

LOS ANGELES Hillary Rodham Clinton said Monday that China damaged its relationship with the
U.S. by allowing National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden to flee from Hong Kong,
despite a U.S. request to arrest him for extradition. That kind of action is not only
detrimental to the U.S.-China relationship but it sets a bad precedent that could unravel the
intricate international agreements about how countries respect the laws and particularly
the extradition treaties, the former secretary of state and possible 2016 presidential contender told an audience in Los
Angeles. Clintons remarks echoed criticism from White House officials that Hong Kongs refusal
to detain Snowden had unquestionably hurt relations between the two countries. Hong Kong has a high
degree of autonomy from the rest of China, although experts believe Beijing probably orchestrated Snowdens exit in an effort to
remove an irritant in relations with the U.S. Clinton said the former CIA employee engaged in outrageous behavior by releasing
sensitive documents that he contends show privacy violations by an authoritarian government. Snowden is now in Russia, and the
White House wants him sent to the U.S. to face espionage charges.
Snowdens released damaged Sino-US relations
Centre for Research on Globalization 6/25 (globalresearch.org US issues threats to
China, Russia over Snowden June 25, 2013 http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-issues-threats-to-
china-russia-over-snowden/5340361)

Speaking at a news conference yesterday, White House spokesman Jay Carney bluntly declared: We are just not
buying that this was a technical decision by a Hong Kong immigration official. This was a
43
deliberate choice by the government to release a fugitive despite a valid arrest warrant, and
that decision unquestionably has a negative impact on the US-China relationship. It is no doubt
the case that the decision to allow Snowden to leave Hong Kong was taken at the top level in Beijing, but that reflects anger in China
and Hong Kong over the US espionage operations. Snowden provided information to Hong Kongs South China Morning Post
showing that the NSA had hacked into hundreds of civilian computers in Hong Kong and China since 2009, including Hong Kongs
Internet Exchange. While the Chinese government is yet to comment on the latest US threats, the state-owned press has hit back.
The Chinese Communist Party newspaper Peoples Daily declared that the decision to let Snowden leave Hong Kong was consistent
with the law and entirely defensible. Referring to the NSAs huge theft of data, it called on the US to stop the hypocrisy of a thief
shouting stop thief! and to account for US intelligence agencies infiltrating Chinese computer networks.
44
Cyber Attacks Threaten Relations Now
Relations poor now- cyber attacks
The Indian Express 13 (Massive cyber-attacks threatens US-China relations: Lawmakers
June 27, 2013 http://www.indianexpress.com/news/massive-cyberattacks-threatens-uschina-
relations-lawmakers/1134538/)

Top American lawmakers and experts have warned that the massive cyber-hacking emanating
from China seriously threatens the bilateral relationship and urged the Obama administration to take all
necessary measures to counter the threat. "We've seen in the last few years it's not only American
companies that are the targets, it's media and it's human rights organisations - something
particularly important to Congressman Smith and me. Journalist writing about corruption in China find their computer systems
hacked and their passwords stolen," Senator Sherrod Brown said during a Congressional hearing yesterday. "For human
rights organisations and activists dealing with hacking attacks from China is almost a daily fact
of life. We can't sit idly by. That's why I support a comprehensive common sense bipartisan approach to hold China accountable,"
he said. "With the growing prevalence of computer networks in America's heavily wired economy, cyber-attacks represent an
increasingly growing threat alongside more traditional forms of intellectual property theft. China simply doesn't play by the same
rules as we do. Chinese governments deny these attacks even though there is evidence of Chinese
involvement," he added. "Cyber-attacks on Congress are only a small, but not insignificant part of a much larger pattern of
attacks that have targeted the executive branch, the Pentagon and American businesses," Congressman Christopher Smith said in his
remarks, alleging that his own computers have been hacked by sources originating in China. Senator Carl Levin said reports
submitted to the US government indicates China to be the worst offender by far. "As far back as 2011, the National
Counterintelligence Executive said in its annual report to Congress to, quote, "Chinese actors," are the world's most
active and persistent perpetrators of economic espionage," he said. Levin along with other Senators had
recently introduced a legislation -- Senate Bill 884, the Deter Tech Cyber Theft Act - which requires the director of National
Intelligence to produce a report that includes a watch list and a priority watch list of foreign countries that engage in economical or
industrial espionage against the United States in cyberspace.
45
Relations Poor Now- Economic Espionage
Tensions rising now- economic espionage
Riley 6/27 (Michael, reporter for Bloomberg Business Week, Chinas Sinovel Charged by U.S.
With Stealing Trade Secrets June 27, 2013 http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-
27/china-s-sinovel-charged-by-u-dot-s-dot-with-stealing-trade-secrets-1)

Sinovel Wind Group Co. (601558), a Chinese wind-turbine company, was charged with stealing trade
secrets from its former U.S. supplier, a case of industrial espionage that may heighten
tensions in U.S.-China relations in the wake of the Edward Snowden affair. U.S. prosecutors secured
an indictment of the company and two of its executives in federal court yesterday in Madison, Wisconsin. Also charged was Dejan
Karabasevic, who pleaded guilty in Klagenfurt, Austria, to stealing source code for the turbine controllers made by American
Superconductor Corp. (AMSC), his former employer. The company lost more than $1 billion in market value after the theft became
public. The indictments timing may give it prominence in the U.S. intensifying dispute with
China over economic espionage . That conflict has only been inflamed by Snowdens
disclosures of U.S. computer-based spying, and Chinas decision to allow the ex-National
Security Agency contractor to fly to Russia from Hong Kong, where he had fled. My 5-year-old understands
that this is wrong, AMSC Chief Executive Officer Daniel McGahn said by phone. If your ideas can be stolen without recourse, there
is no reason to invest in innovation, and if there is no reason to invest in innovation, there is no purpose to the American economy.
46
US Economic Engagement in Latin America High Now
US economic engagement in Latin America is already high now
Goodman 13 (Joshua, staff writer, Biden Circles Xi as U.S. Duels China for Latin America Ties
May 29, 2013 for Bloomgberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/biden-circles-xi-
as-u-s-duels-china-for-latin-america-influence.html)

Bidens tour, which began May 26 in Colombia, included a frank and at times brutal
discussion about trade, economic growth and security with 15 Caribbean leaders in Trinidad
yesterday, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar said, without giving more details. The leaders
signed an accord to boost investment and economic cooperation. Our country is deeply
invested and wants to be more deeply invested in the region, Biden said in Port of Spain.
Yesterdays accord will give us all a vehicle to overcome special, specific, practical barriers to
trade and investment. Our goal is not simply growth, but growth that reaches everyone. In
Colombia, Biden said a one-year-old free-trade agreement between the two countries is just
the beginning, citing a doubling of the period for which entry visas are valid and efforts to
expand trade ties further.
The US is already stepping up its game in Latin America
Clark 5/30 (staff writer, Chinas moves in Western Hemisphere have U.S. stepping up its
game May 30, 2013 for the Miami Herald.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/30/3425015/chinas-moves-in-western-
hemisphere.html)

WASHINGTON -- Chinas courting of Latin America and the Caribbean signaled anew this week by a visit by its president is
prodding the United States to step up its outreach to the rapidly emerging economies, which are showing greater global clout.
President Xi Jinpings weeklong trip to Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica and Mexico starting
Friday comes in the wake of President Barack Obamas recent trip to Mexico and Costa Rica,
and follows by just a day Vice President Joe Bidens three-nation tour of the region. Xi will meet
with Obama at the close of his trip, June 7-8 in California. China has eclipsed the United States as Brazil and Chiles largest trading
partner, purchasing soybeans, iron ore and oil to fuel its rapidly expanding economy. Latin American exports to China accounted for
just $5 billion in 2000; by 2012, they topped $104 billion. The global giants rising influence in the hemisphere
hasnt gone unnoticed in Washington, in part prompting what Biden dubbed the most active
stretch of high-level engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean in a long, long time.
In addition to Obamas and Bidens trips, the White House will host Perus President Ollanta Humala and Chiles President Sebastian
Pinera next month. And in October, Obama will hold a rare state dinner for President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil. Nothing motivates
Washington faster than competition, said Eric Farnsworth, the vice president of the Council of the Americas and the Americas
Society, noting that trade deals with Colombia and Chile were accelerated when it became apparent that Canada and China were
moving in. There is recognition in Washington that we need to begin to contend more actively
for the Americas, that Latin America is not a region we can take for granted anymore if we ever
did because the region does have options, Farnsworth said. We are still in many ways the preferred partner but were not the
guaranteed partner, and weve got to fight for the region in a way that maybe we havent had to traditionally. White
House officials downplayed the Chinese presence, saying the U.S. doesnt view itself as competing for trade in Latin America. Biden,
in remarks in Rio de Janeiro, said the U.S. welcomed investment by all. He said hed talked to Xi about pursuing bilateral investment
treaties with China, as well as India. For those who are accustomed to the world before it changed, some of this is frightening,
Biden said. Some of this is threatening, but all of its necessary. In addition to his three-country tour, Xi will meet with officials
from Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Suriname and Jamaica, Chinas Assistant Foreign Minister
Zhang Kunsheng said. His visit comes as Chinas largest pork producer, Shuanghui Group, looks to purchase the U.S.s biggest pork
processor, Virginia-based Smithfield Foods. The $4.7 billion deal will trigger a review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the
United States, which reviews mergers between the U.S. and foreign companies to ensure that national security isnt put at risk.
Though Chinese involvement in the hemisphere has raised geopolitical questions, analysts say Xis trip to Latin America and the
47
Caribbean is more about its economy and ensuring that it has access to markets in order to purchase raw materials and sell its
manufactured goods. China also has a massive presence in Africa, and Xi traveled to Tanzania, South Africa and Congo shortly after
he took office in March.
48
Links
49
No Link- Cyber Security
Cyber security is the key in US-China relations- not Latin America
AP 6/8 (The Associated Press for NPR, Cybersecurity Deemed Central To U.S.-China Relations
June 8, 2013 http://www.npr.org/2013/06/08/189928150/cybersecurity-deemed-central-to-u-
s-china-relations)

President Obama used an unusually lengthy and informal desert summit to present Chinese
President Xi Jingping with detailed evidence of intellectual property theft emanating from his
country, as a top U.S. official declared Saturday that cybersecurity is now at the "center of the
relationship" between the world's largest economies. While there were few clear policy breakthroughs on
cybersecurity, U.S. officials said Obama and Xi were in broad agreement over the need for North Korea to be denuclearized. And
both countries expressed optimism that the closer personal ties forged between the two leaders during the California summit could
stem the mistrust between the world powers. Still, Obama's national security adviser Tom Donilon said
resolving cybersecurity issues would be "key to the future" of the relationship. Obama told Xi
that "if it's not addressed, if it continues to be this direct theft of United States property, that
this was going to be very difficult problem in the economic relationship and was going to be
an inhibitor to the relationship really reaching its full potential," Donilon said during a briefing with
reporters following the summit. In their own recap of the meetings, Chinese officials said Xi opposed all forms of cyberspying, but
claimed no responsibility for attacks against the U.S. "Cybersecurity should not become the root cause of
mutual suspicion and frictions between our two countries. Rather, it should be a new bright
spot in our cooperation," said Yang Jiechi, Xi's senior foreign policy adviser. Yang said the two leaders
"blazed a new trail" away from the two nations' past differences and "talked about cooperation and did not shy away from
differences." Obama and Xi met for about eight hours over the course of two days at the sweeping Sunnylands estate, marking a
significant and unusual investment of time for both presidents. Their talks included a working dinner of lobster tamales, Porterhouse
steak and cherry pie prepared by celebrity chef Bobby Flay, and a morning walk through the manicured gardens of the 200-acre
estate on the edge of the Mojave Desert.
50
No Link- No Trade-off
US-Latin America economic engagement does not affect Chinese-Latin
American relations
Mi 6/5 (Li, correspondent for Xinhuanet news, Xi's trip ushers in new chapter for China-Latin
American relations June 5, 2013 for Xinhuanet news.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-06/05/c_132432058.htm)

BEIJING, June 5 (Xinhua) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping's ongoing trip to Latin America and the Caribbean has
ushered in a new chapter in the region's fast-growing bilateral relations with China. The trip
also proves that the two sides can be each other's opportunities in their long-term
comprehensive cooperation. In the past decade,the development of bilateral trade testifies to the win-win cooperation
China and its Latin American partners have vowed to seek. China is now the second largest trading partner of
Latin America and a leading source of investment in the region. It is the largest trading partner of Brazil and
Chile. Free trade agreements have been signed between China and Chile, Peru as well as Costa Rica respectively. Even amidst the
global economic downturn and the European debt crisis, bilateral trade reached 261.2 billion U.S. dollars in 2012, increasing by 8.1
percent year-on-year. It is expected to reach 400 billion dollars in 2017. It is undeniable that China's demand for commodities
revived the growth engine for resource-rich Latin America in recent years. However, Latin America is not just China's raw material
corner, nor is China Latin America's one-time bonanza. To enhance cooperation across such geographical distances is not bricolage.
The trade structures of China and Latin American countries are highly complementary. They
offer a wide range of cooperation opportunities which have been expanded beyond energy to
include, among other things, finance, agriculture, infrastructure, science and technology,
aerospace, and tourism. The economic exchange between China and Latin America has also found a balance between
trade and investment, evolving from the trade-dominated mode at the very beginning. China's investment in Latin America has
reached around 65 billion dollars and created much needed jobs in the region. The infrastructure projects funded by Chinese banks
and built by Chinese contractors set good examples that China and Latin America have already been on track for comprehensive
cooperation in the long term. Meanwhile, China and Latin America are also facing common challenges during their development.
Rural-urban migration, sustainable development, environment protection and the widening wealth gap have been or are on the two
sides' agenda. According to the Global Competitiveness Index 2012-2013, China and most Latin American countries are in a
development stage of "efficiency-driven" or in a transition stage of "efficiency-driven to innovation-driven." China and Latin
America do not simply surf the wave. They can learn from each other and help each other in the long run,
making joint efforts to keep integrated into the value chain of global production. It is eye-catching
that the high-level exchanges between China and Latin America have been more frequent since the Chinese leadership transition.
China-Latin American relations are an integral part of the Chinese government's overall diplomatic balance. China and Latin
America are inseparable in South-South cooperation. Both sides have exchanged views and supported each other on a variety of
issues through world-class platforms like APEC, BRICS, G-20 summits and the newly set-up Latin America panel at the Boao Forum
for Asia. President Xi and other Chinese leaders have noted recently that China is ready to promote the establishment of the China-
Latin America Cooperation Forum as a better platform to deepen the comprehensive cooperative partnership between China and
the region. Xi is the first Chinese president to visit Trinidad and Tobago and English-speaking Caribbean countries, and the second
to visit Costa Rica. During his visits, Xi also met with leaders of several more nations in the region, including Antigua and Barbuda,
the Bahamas, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Suriname and Jamaica. The Chinese's president's visits are sure to
bring new momentum and turn over a new page for China-Latin American relations. Given the
significant positions of Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica and Mexico in the Caribbean, Central America and Latin America, the visits
are sure to set examples for the development of bilateral ties between China and other countries in the region.
51
No Link- Not Competing
The U.S. and China can cooperate over Latin America
Global Times 5/31 (China, US not competing over Latin America: expert May 31, 2013
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/785721.shtml#.Uc22LT7rk2s)

Chinese President Xi Jinping heads to Latin America and the Caribbean on Friday, in a state visit aiming at promoting China's
cooperation with the region. Xi's visit to Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica and Mexico follows his first foreign trip to Russia and three
countries in Africa, Tanzania, South Africa and Republic of Congo, shortly after taking office in March. While Xi kicks off his visit, US
Vice President Joe Biden is concluding his Latin America visit on the same day, as he leaves Brazil Friday. Some media reports
described "dueling visits" by Chinese and US leaders, and said that the "competition between the world's two
biggest economies for influence in Latin America is on display." Both the US and China deny they are competing with each other.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hong Lei said last week that the two countries can "carry out cooperation in Latin America by
giving play to their respective advantages." Tao Wenzhao, a fellow of the Institute of American Studies at
the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that it is a coincidence that the two leaders
chose to visit Latin America at a similar time, and that China has no intention to challenge US influence in the area. " It's not
like in the 19th century when countries divided their sphere of influence in a certain area.
China and the US' involvement in Latin America is not a zero-sum game," Tao said, explaining that it is
a good thing for Latin America. Chinese and US leaders visit Latin America out of their respective
strategic needs, Tao said. All countries need to interact and cooperate with other countries, and visits of such high-level are
usually arranged long time before they starts, Tao said. China has embarked on a diplomatic drive since completing its once-in-a-
decade leadership transition with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang also visiting India, Pakistan, Switzerland and Germany, and several
high-level visitors to Beijing. After visiting Mexico, Xi travels to the US for his first summit with President Barack Obama on June 7 to
8 in California.
52
Impacts
53
Relations Resilient
Relations with China are resilient

Dongxiao 12 Vice President of Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (Chen, 01/05, China-US Relations in 2012:
Caution Ahead, http://chinausfocus.com/slider/no-reason-for-chagrin-over-china-us-relations-but-cautious-management-needed-
in-2012/)

The year of 2011 brought many unexpected, globally altering events. This year, non-stop crises and sea changes in the
international arena; chaos and revolution in the Middle East and West Africa; catastrophic Tsunami and nuclear-leak
crisis in Fukushima; paralysis of leadership of EU confronting the evolving debt predicament in Euro-Zone; and the sudden death of
Kim Jong-il and its unpredictable repercussions on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia were just a few of the tumultuous
events that led global economic and political instability this year. Bilateral relations between China and the US, in
contrast have been relatively stable, and increasingly positive. Three driving forces have contributed to the
improvement in US-China relations in 2011: mutual commitment, multi-function mechanisms, and increasing interdependence.
Beijing and Washington both stressed their commitment to building a cooperative partnership based on mutual respect and mutual
benefit following a rocky year of bilateral relations in 2010. Both sides have stressed that the relationship
between China and the United States should be cooperative and mutually beneficial rather than zero-sum,
and that the two sides should stand together in the face of difficulty and carry out cooperation
on an equal footing. The mutual commitment between China and the US has been bolstered by an increasing number of bilateral
mechanisms with policy communication, coordination, and implementation functions (C2I). 2011 has seen of the growth of C2I
mechanisms intensify. with a number of new initiatives, including High-level Consultation on People-to-People Exchanges, the US-
China Governors Forum, and the Strategic Security Dialogue and Asia-Pacific Affairs Consultation under the framework of Strategic
and Economic Dialogue (S&ED). While the former two initiatives have either reflected thriving interaction in cross-cultural domains
or tapped the huge potential of sub-national cooperation across the Pacific, the latter two mechanisms have greatly upgraded
capacity to address difficult and sensitive military and security issues in bilateral relations n and build confidence in US-China
relations. The 60 plus bilateral mechanisms, plus frequent exchanges of informal visits and workshops
between senior officials have built an impressive level of institutionalization in US-
China bilateral relations that has enhanced the predictability of relations between the two countries and
helped consolidate the foundation of the relations. The substance of the bilateral relationship, in essence, is not to follow
the two presidents agreements in words, but to follow the roadmap in action, and those bilateral mechanisms have built significant
capacity to do this. Thirdly and perhaps most fundamentally, the growing interdependence across the Pacific and
emerging agenda of global governance has served as the ballast in the bilateral relationship. Despite numerous
trade disputes between the two countries, economic interdependence has been steadily enhanced, manifested either by the hike of
bilateral trade and investment volume, symbiotic financial relations, or the economic restructuring now underway in both countries.
This interdependence has transcended economics, and is growing increasingly comprehensive in nature.
Security cooperation prevents disputes over trade pressure from derailing
relations
Taiwan News 4
(4-27, Lexis)
He also said Washington's renewed protests about Beijing's human rights, weapons proliferation
and trade practices were insufficient to destabilize U.S.-China relations, because America's
reliance on Beijing in diplomatic efforts toward North Korea, and Beijing's hopes for U.S.
pressure to be used against Taiwan, are part of a broad set of calculations keeping the
relationship on track.
Relations resilient
Stokes 5 (Bruce, PhD, Snr Fellow Council on Foreign Relations, National Journal, 7-16, Lexis)

54
The Chinese resent growing pressure from Washington to revalue their currency, the yuan. They
worry about mounting anti-Chinese sentiment in Congress. They anticipate potential bilateral friction over North Korea and over
China's lengthening economic and diplomatic shadow in East Asia. And, said Wang Jisi, dean of the School of International Studies at
Beijing University, "there are deep-rooted suspicions of U.S. intentions." Nonetheless, members of China's small
community of experts on Sino-American relations are upbeat. They welcome April's agreement between
Beijing and Washington to hold regular senior-level talks, with Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick leading the dialogue, on the
full array of issues facing the two nations. They think that the Taiwan issue is manageable. And they have faith that the U.S.-China
relationship can be put on a stable course once Beijing convinces Washington that China's military buildup in recent years poses no
threat to the United States, and that China does not want to exclude America from Asia. Continues As Yuan suggests, as
dynamic as China appears from the outside, insiders here fret about their country's domestic
vulnerabilities. Tens of millions of Chinese are jobless and drifting around the country with no permanent home. The
possibility of an economic slowdown that might increase this number sends shivers through the leadership. Moreover, millions more
work unproductively on the land. At some point, these people need to find jobs in industry and services if Chinese agriculture is ever
to become more efficient. In addition, the strength of the financial system, burdened as it is by bad loans, is a constant worry.
Opinions differ on how serious the problem is. Green, from Standard Chartered Bank, says there is "good reason to believe that
China can get through this." But the banking system is likely to be vulnerable for years to come. All of this uncertainty exists amid an
environment of mounting civil unrest. The number of demonstrations and other citizen protests has increased dramatically in the
past few years, and many are aimed at the tax system and at environmental abuses. This internal political insecurity is compounded,
analysts here say, by a growing wariness of U.S. meddling. Well aware of the role that Washington played in funding successful
opposition groups in Ukraine and elsewhere, the already insecure Chinese leadership views Bush administration talk of democracy
promotion with grave concern. For these reasons, Chinese experts on Sino-American relations welcome the new high-level dialogue
between China and the U.S. that is slated to commence this summer. The talks aren't intended to solve specific problems -- such as
Taiwan -- but will focus on building trust about each other's long-term geopolitical and security intentions. The Chinese would like to
see the dialogue take up the expanding U.S. role in Central Asia, how Americans see their future relationship with Japan, and how to
peacefully manage mutual energy needs. Although Chinese praise the dialogue as a good beginning, they do not have high
expectations for the first meetings. They realize that the process will be slow. For that reason, some Chinese experts believe that
there is also a need for a quick-reaction, crisis-management dialogue that would focus more specifically on emerging flash points.
But they hold out little hope for such an interchange, saying the Pentagon opposes it. So the challenges facing the U.S.-
China relationship, as seen from Beijing, are daunting but manageable. The course of events may
depend on how Washington handles mounting frustration with China in the United States. "This is going to be very difficult," said
Susan Shirk, a professor of political science at the University of California (San Diego). "The history of pressuring the Chinese to do
things is not one of great success. When we pressure them, they dig in their heels. It turns into a contest of wills. And you can't keep
any of this from the Chinese people anymore. The Internet sets the agenda, and Beijing has to react. So if we start venting, they will
start to vent." Fortunately, said Kenneth G. Lieberthal, a China expert and a professor of political
science at the University of Michigan, the relationship has proven quite resilient over the
years. "We are far beyond the era when one or two issues could break the relationship," he said.
Relations resilient- constant cooperation will only increase
Wenzhao, 09 Senior Researcher at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences Tao, 2/17/09, Positive signs ahead for Sino-US relations, China Daily,
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2009-02/17/content_7482140.htm)

The direction of Sino-US relations under Barack Obama's presidency is drawing increasing attention as the new US administration
takes shape. The new president made remarks about China during his election campaign and wrote for the US Chamber of
Commerce in China an article on the prospect of Sino-US ties in his term of office. In January, newly assigned Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton also deliberated on US foreign policy in a Senate hearing. Obama acknowledges that common
interests exist between China and the US and welcomes a rising China. He realizes China's remarkable
achievement in the past 30 years has driven economic development in neighboring nations and believes its emergence as a big
power is irreversible and the US should cooperate to deal with emerging challenges. The US and China have had
effective and smooth cooperation on a wide range of economic and security issues, from anti-
terror, nonproliferation and climate change to the restructuring of the extant international
financial system. This is expected to be the new administration's mainstream China policy and dominate the future of Sino-US
relations. As multilateralism believers, both President Obama and Vice-President Joe Biden
advocate international cooperation instead of unilateral action to deal with international
challenges and resolve disputes. Fruitful cooperation between China and the US on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue
clearly indicates constructive bilateral and multilateral cooperation on sensitive issues can help ease strained regional situations. The
new US administration has expressed its wishes to continue to promote a stable Korean Peninsula and to improve ties with the
55
Democratic People's Republic of Korea. The new administration has also expressed expectations for cooperation with China on other
international issues, such as the Iranian nuclear and Darfur challenges. China now plays a crucial role in the world's
political landscape and we look forward to cooperative ties with it, Clinton recently said. Ever-deepening
economic and trade ties, as the cornerstone of bilateral relations, are expected to continue to develop during Obama's tenure.
Relations resilient
Stokes 5 (Bruce, PhD, Snr Fellow Council on Foreign Relations, National Journal, 7-16, Lexis)

The Chinese resent growing pressure from Washington to revalue their currency, the yuan.
They worry about mounting anti-Chinese sentiment in Congress. They anticipate potential bilateral friction over North Korea and
over China's lengthening economic and diplomatic shadow in East Asia. And, said Wang Jisi, dean of the School of International
Studies at Beijing University, "there are deep-rooted suspicions of U.S. intentions." Nonetheless,
members of China's small community of experts on Sino-American relations are upbeat. They
welcome April's agreement between Beijing and Washington to hold regular senior-level talks, with Deputy Secretary of State
Robert Zoellick leading the dialogue, on the full array of issues facing the two nations. They think that the Taiwan issue is
manageable. And they have faith that the U.S.-China relationship can be put on a stable course once Beijing convinces Washington
that China's military buildup in recent years poses no threat to the United States, and that China does not want to exclude America
from Asia. Continues As Yuan suggests, as dynamic as China appears from the outside, insiders here fret about their country's
domestic vulnerabilities. Tens of millions of Chinese are jobless and drifting around the country with no permanent home. The
possibility of an economic slowdown that might increase this number sends shivers through the leadership. Moreover, millions more
work unproductively on the land. At some point, these people need to find jobs in industry and services if Chinese agriculture is ever
to become more efficient. In addition, the strength of the financial system, burdened as it is by bad loans, is a constant worry.
Opinions differ on how serious the problem is. Green, from Standard Chartered Bank, says there is "good reason to believe that
China can get through this." But the banking system is likely to be vulnerable for years to come. All of this uncertainty exists amid an
environment of mounting civil unrest. The number of demonstrations and other citizen protests has increased dramatically in the
past few years, and many are aimed at the tax system and at environmental abuses. This internal political insecurity is compounded,
analysts here say, by a growing wariness of U.S. meddling. Well aware of the role that Washington played in funding successful
opposition groups in Ukraine and elsewhere, the already insecure Chinese leadership views Bush administration talk of democracy
promotion with grave concern. For these reasons, Chinese experts on Sino-American relations welcome the new high-level dialogue
between China and the U.S. that is slated to commence this summer. The talks aren't intended to solve specific problems -- such as
Taiwan -- but will focus on building trust about each other's long-term geopolitical and security intentions. The Chinese would like to
see the dialogue take up the expanding U.S. role in Central Asia, how Americans see their future relationship with Japan, and how to
peacefully manage mutual energy needs. Although Chinese praise the dialogue as a good beginning, they do not have high
expectations for the first meetings. They realize that the process will be slow. For that reason, some Chinese experts believe that
there is also a need for a quick-reaction, crisis-management dialogue that would focus more specifically on emerging flash points.
But they hold out little hope for such an interchange, saying the Pentagon opposes it. So the challenges facing the U.S.-
China relationship, as seen from Beijing, are daunting but manageable. The course of events may
depend on how Washington handles mounting frustration with China in the United States. "This is going to be very difficult," said
Susan Shirk, a professor of political science at the University of California (San Diego). "The history of pressuring the Chinese to do
things is not one of great success. When we pressure them, they dig in their heels. It turns into a contest of wills. And you can't keep
any of this from the Chinese people anymore. The Internet sets the agenda, and Beijing has to react. So if we start venting, they will
start to vent." Fortunately, said Kenneth G. Lieberthal, a China expert and a professor of political
science at the University of Michigan, the relationship has proven quite resilient over the
years. "We are far beyond the era when one or two issues could break the relationship," he
said.
56
China is Peaceful
China is peacefulfocusing on internal economic development and not foreign
policy disputes:
Elizabeth Roche, 1/9/11 (Livemint, " Right now, India should not get distracted by
geopolitical issues ", http://www.livemint.com/2011/01/09211823/Right-now-India-should-
not-ge.html?atype=tp)

Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore and a China expert, is
in New Delhi to attend the ninth Pravasi Bharatiya Divasan annual gathering of the Indian diaspora. In an interview, he spoke
about Indias engagement with China and South-East Asia. Edited excerpts: In the past two years, we have seen a
very aggressive Chinanot only towards India but also towards neighbours in South-East Asia. What are the reasons for
this? I dont think there has been any fundamental change in Chinese foreign policy. They have
clearly made more mistakes in the last 12 months. They seem to be more assertive in their
claims over the South China Sea. They are perceived to be more assertive vis-a-vis India. But I
think their overall foreign policy hasnt changed. I think they are still abiding by their principle
that they are going to focus on internal economic development; they dont want to get
distracted by foreign policy disputes. And their main challenges are internal, not external.
57
No US-China War
No threat of trade war between the US and China
China Post February 1, 2009 (A Sino-U.S. trade war? Sounds quite unlikely,
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/editorial/world-issues/2009/02/01/194084/A-Sino-U.S..htm)

Predictions of an imminent trade war between the world's largest and third-largest economies are
only natural. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been a vocal critic of China. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has been a leading
protectionist in the Senate, speaking against Beijing's unfair trade policies. Mrs. Clinton is lukewarm towards Beijing; in her Senate
confirmation hearing she named Japan and India as America's two most important allies in Asia, ignoring the elephant in the room.
The issue of China's foreign exchange rate has been an irritant in U.S.-China trade for more than a
decade. The Bush administration pressured Beijing to allow the yuan to float instead of being pegged
to the dollar. Since July 2006, the yuan has been allowed to float based on a basket of currencies including the dollar. But the
appreciation has been too slow and small, from 8.2 to 6.8, to satisfy Washington, which believes the undervalued yuan has hurt U.S.
manufacturers and created an unlevel playing field. But China has refused to yield to U.S. pressure, mindful of
Japan's lesson in the early 1990s when it drastically devalued the yen under U.S. pressure to reduce
its huge trade surplus with America. The devaluation resulted in prolonged economic recession from
which it has not recovered to this day. Geithner's warning, however, may carry a hidden message, telling Congress the
new administration will be tough on China on trade issues, and Congress needn't be in a hurry to initiate punitive legislation against
China, when a trade war with China would have no winners. At a time when the U.S. is struggling to weather the worst economic
crisis since the Great Depression, and when Obama needs money he doesn't have to jumpstart the economy, the dumbest thing to
do is start a trade war with China the largest buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds and other government-backed debt. He must place U.S.
national interest uber alles. Considering the circumstances, a trade war is very unlikely. According to Nielsen
Report early this week, Obama called his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao over the weekend to express his
hope for maintaining strong, constructive relations, and for closer cooperation in dealing with
pressing world issues. So, what's in store for the Washington-Beijing relationship? To paraphrase Obama, it may get worse
before it gets better.
No risk of China war- multiple domestic factors check
Kumar 8-11-11 [Vikas, Assistant Professor of Economics at Azim Premji University, Bangalore, Chinas Achilles Heels
Analysis, http://www.eurasiareview.com/china%E2%80%99s-achilles%E2%80%99-heels-analysis-11082011/]

To conclude, the capacity of China to challenge the United States as the provider of global public
goods like international security, international political institutions, and new technologies will
continue to be constrained in the near future. This in turn will check its geo-political ascendance. Here three additional observations
are in order that reinforce the above conclusion. First, the effective gap between the United States and China is greater than the perceived gap because
of the formers relatively greater capacity to self-doubt. Second, the purportedly declining United States has an enormous capacity to revitalize itself.
Obamas election is just one manifestation of that capacity. Third, the present disunity within the West is not irreversible, particularly if China asserts
itself too soon. A unified West would be practically invincible in the foreseeable future. And, in any case,
unrest in the Han majority regions (particularly in the countryside) due to growing economic inequality,
chronic unrest in the ethnic minority regions (that constitute more than 60% of Chinas area), and the potentially
impending political transition will limit Chinas capacity to sustain aggression abroad. So, in the
foreseeable future, international posturing notwithstanding China will be constrained to be an inward-looking, defensive power. But in the meantime
the misleading view that Chinese hegemony is imminent could push leaders of democracies, particularly in Chinas neighbourhood, to indulge in
unnecessary jingoism and lead to counter-productive foreign and defence policies. It is not the case that China is not a threat to regional stability. But a
realistic appraisal of Chinas intentions, capacity, and constraints is indispensable for working out a reasonable response to the challenges posed by
Chinas rise.
58
No Impact to Prolif
No cascade prolif and no terrorist acquisition of nukes
Mueller 11
*John, professor of Political Science at Ohio State University. 'Clocking' Nuclear Weapons International Relations and Security
Network.]

At the same time, alarmist efforts to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons - particularly to Iraq and North Korea - have
proved to be exceedingly costly. It is far from clear what Saddam Hussein, presiding over a deeply resentful population and an
unreliable army (fearing overthrow, he was wary about issuing it bullets), could have done with a tiny number of bombs against his
neighbors and their massively armed well-wishers other than stoke his ego and deter real or imagined threats. But the 1990s
sanctions and the anti-proliferation war against Iraq of 2003 have cost more lives - probably far more lives - than the explosions on
Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined. And so, it may well be, have the sanctions against the pathetic regime in North Korea. Nuclear
proliferation, while not necessarily desirable, is unlikely to accelerate or prove to be a major
danger. I have nothing against making nonproliferation a high priority. I would simply like to
top it with a somewhat higher one: not killing tens or hundreds of thousands of people under
the obsessive sway of worst-case scenario fantasies. And one way to reduce the likelihood
that errant regimes will seek nuclear arsenals is to stop threatening them constantly. We now
hear that Osama bin Laden was devilishly plotting train derailments from his once-quiet
quarters in Pakistan. This scarcely suggests that al-Qaida was into high-tech nuclear
developments; the likelihood that terrorists will come up with such weapons is vanishingly
small. Although they seem to be useless, nuclear weapons have been exceedingly effective at generating diplomatic hysteria,
exquisite theory-building (or nuclear metaphysics), and massive expenditure. It has been estimated that during the Cold War, the
weapons cost the US somewhere between $5 and $10 trillion - enough, by one calculation, to have purchased everything in the
country except for the land.
Prolif is slow - Pessimistic predictions for runaway prolif are unfounded and
based on Cold War paranoia
Van der Meer 11
[Sico, Research Fellow at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael and a PhD Candidate at the Erasmus
University Rotterdam; his PhD project on nuclear proliferation dynamics is financially supported by the Dutch non-governmental
organisation IKV Pax Christi. Not that bad: Looking back on 65 years of nuclear non-proliferation efforts Security and Human Rights
2011 no.1]

Since the invention and first use of nuclear weapons, predictions on the spread of these weapons have been traditionally
pessimistic. Especially during the Cold War, from 1945 to 1991, the persistent pessimism among experts and policymakers is with
the knowledge of looking backwards surprising. During the first decades of the Cold War it was generally expected that far more
countries would acquire a nuclear weapons arsenal rather soon. This pessimism was not that strange, considering that nuclear
weapons were generally seen as acceptable, desirable and even necessary among political and military elites in many nations during
the 1950s and early 1960s.2 Nuclear weapons are considered as the ultimate weapon that would deter any enemy from attacking.
Moreover, nuclear weapons offer not only military power: they are also considered to increase a states political power
internationally. Having nuclear weapons grants a state and its leadership international prestige, and a nuclear weapon state
will automatically be considered and treated as a (regional) superpower. Based on this positive attitude towards nuclear weapons,
forecasts in these years were therefore easily predicting that 20 to 25 states would become nuclear weapon powers within the next
few decades; countries like Sweden, West Germany and Japan are examples of countries that were often considered would soon
cross the nuclear threshold, but they never did. One of the reasons for the alarming forecasts during much of the Cold War period
was the failure of many estimates to distinguish between the capacity of states to develop nuclear weapons and the desire of these
states to do so.3 Even nowadays, however, political and academic forecasts often tend to be rather
pessimistic, predicting nuclear domino effects, or chain reactions, when new nuclear weapon
powers (for example, Iran) will emerge and cause other states to develop nuclear weapons
too.4 Despite all the pessimistic forecasts, however, only nine states nowadays possess
nuclear weapons.5 Although more states have employed nuclear weapons programmes at
some point in the past 65 years, most of them have sooner or later ended their ambition to
acquire these weapons. Some states even destroyed their nuclear arsenal (South Africa) or
59
gave up inherited arsenals (Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan). Especially since the second half
of the 1980s the number of states with nuclear weapons-related activities has become very
marginal.6
60
No Impact to Terror
Nuclear terrorist threats are exaggerated
Gertz and Lake 10 (Bill and Eli, Washington Times,
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/apr/14/obama-says-terrorist-nuclear-risk-is-
growing/?page=1, dw:4-14-2010, da: 7-6-2011)

But Henry Sokolski, a member of the congressional Commission on the Prevention of Weapons
of Mass , Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, said that there is no specific intelligence on
ongoing terrorist procurement of nuclear material. We were given briefings and when we
tried to find specific intelligence on the threat of any known terrorist efforts to get a bomb, the
answer was we did not have any. Mr. Obama told reporters that there was a range of views on
the danger but that all the conferees agreed on the urgency and seriousness of the threat. Mr.
Sokolski said the idea that we know that this is eminent has got to be somehow informed
conjecture and apprehension, [but] it is not driven by any specific intelligence per se. We
have reasons to believe this and to be worried, but we dont have specific intelligence about
terrorist efforts to get the bomb, he said. So we have to do general efforts to guard against his
possibility, like securing the material everywhere. A senior U.S. intelligence official also
dismissed the administrations assertion that the threat of nuclear terrorism is growing. The
threat has been there, the official said. But there is no new intelligence. The official said the
administration appears to be inflating the danger in ways similar to what critics of the Bush
administration charged with regard to Iraq: hyping intelligence to support its policies. The
official said one likely motivation for the administrations new emphasis on preventing
nuclear terrorism is to further the presidents goal of eliminating nuclear weapons. While the
U.S. nuclear arsenal would be useful in retaliating against a sovereign state, it would be less so
against a terrorist group. But if the latter is the worlds major nuclear threat, the official
explained, then the U.S. giving up its weapons seems less risky.
Terrorists wont get nukes
Gertz and Lake 10 (Bill and Eli, Washington Times,
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/apr/14/obama-says-terrorist-nuclear-risk-is-
growing/?page=1, dw:4-14-2010, da: 7-6-2011)

However, Brian Jenkins, author of the book Will Terrorists Go Nuclear? and a Rand Corp.
adviser, said that al Qaeda in the past has been duped by supposed nuclear suppliers who
initiated scams that suggest a naivete and lack of technical capability on the part of the
organization, he said. We have evidence of terrorist ambitions to obtain nuclear weapons or
nuclear material but we have no evidence of terrorist capabilities to do either, he said. In late
2001, after the U.S. invaded Afghanistan in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, some
materials were discovered in al Qaeda bases such as crude diagrams of the basic components of
a nuclear bomb. Mr. Jenkins, however, said that U.S. technical specialists concluded from the
designs that al Qaeda did not have the ability to produce a nuclear weapon . In 2002,
members of al Qaedas affiliate in Saudi Arabia attempted to purchase Russian nuclear devices
through al Qaedas leadership in Iran, though the transactions did not move forward. In his 2007
memoir, At the Center of the Storm, Mr. Tenet wrote that from the end of 2002 to the
spring of 2003, we received a stream of reliable reporting that the senior al-Qaeda leadership
61
in Saudi Arabia was negotiating for the purchase of three Russian nuclear devices. Graham
Allison, a Harvard professor and author of a book on nuclear terrorism, said he agrees with the
president that the threat is growing, based on North Koreas nuclear proliferation to Syria and
instability in nuclear-armed Pakistan.
62
No Asia War
No East Asian war --- informal processes secure and maintain East Asian peace
Weissmann, 09 --- senior fellow at the Swedish School of Advanced Asia Pacific Studies (Mikael Weissmann,
Understanding the East Asian Peace: Some Findings on the Role of Informal Processes, Nordic Asia Research Community,
November 2, 2009, http://barha.asiaportal.info/blogs/in-focus/2009/november/understanding-east-asian-peace-some-findings-
role-informal-processes-mi)

The findings concerning Chinas role in keeping peace in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea,
and on the Korean Peninsula confirm the underlying hypothesis that various informal processes
and related mechanisms can help explain the relative peace. Virtually all of the identified processes and
related mechanisms have been informal rather than formal. It should be noted that it is not necessarily the same types of processes
that have been of importance in each and every case. In different ways these informal processes have
demonstrated that the relative lack of formalised security structures and/or mechanisms have
not prevented the region from moving towards a stable peace. Informal processes have been
sufficient both to prevent tension and disputes from escalating into war and for moving East
Asia towards a stable peace.
63

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