Crisis in Korea

SCENARIO: KIM JONG-UN DELIVERS AN ULTIMATUM

After a devastatingly cold winter on the Korean peninsula, another disaster looms on
the horizon. On April 5, 2015, Kim Jong-Un, the leader of the Democratic Peoples
Republic of Korea, demanded that all foreign occupiers leave the Korean peninsula
within one year, or else face the wrath of the Korean Peoples Army. All foreign troops
in Korea are Americans, who are stationed exclusively in the Republic of Korea.

At first, the United States did not publically respond to the DPRK ultimatum. This was
consistent with the governments recent strategy to delegitimize North Korean threats
by ignoring them. Early on April 7, however, North Korea got the worlds full attention
when a squad of Korean Peoples Army (KPA) soldiers rushed a symbolically important
border crossing known as the Joint Security Area. Approximately twenty lightly armed
North Korean soldiers forced their way across a bridge and into an adjacent allied
command post, killing seven South Koreans and one American, including one South
Korean officer. When ROK reinforcements arrived on the scene, the KPA troops set the
building on fire and retreated. That evening, North Koreas state news agency broadcast
images of the incursion. The newscaster boasted, Now the world will give our supreme
leader the respect and attention he deserves.

After conferring with the National Security Council, US President Barack Obama
responded with a short written statement. The United States of America, operating
under the authority of the United Nations, will continue to station its armed forces in
South Korea, pursuant to the Status of Forces Agreement with the Republic of Korea and
according to the Korean Armistice Agreement of 1953. Key Republican leaders and a
small group of hawkish Democrats criticized Obama for not taking stronger actions to
avenge the loss of an American soldier. The American response significantly escalated
in the days that followed. On April 8, the Pentagon scheduled a new round of war
games with South Koreas Ministry of National Defense, a move that typically irritates
North Koreas leaders. On April 9, the White House announced that Obama and South
Korean President Park Geun-hye would personally visit the site of the North Korean
attack on April 15 in a show of their combined resolve to ignore the North Korean
ultimatum.

On the eve of the presidents arrival, a barrage of North Korean rockets leveled the
command post that they were set to visit the next morning. South Korean forces first
secured the area, and then retaliated with air strikes that destroyed a North Korean
complex on the other side of the JSA. A skirmish followed between the two forces,
which lasted until non-commissioned officers on both sides negotiated a truce. In all,
forty-three ROK soldiers were killed and another thirty were injured. Seventeen civilians
also died, including an advance team of six US Secret Service agents who were preparing
for Obamas visit. Estimates of North Korean casualties range from a few dozen to over
four hundred.

It is now April 22, 2015. South Korean and American forces, under a joint command still
flying a UN flag, are on high alert. The United States has positioned the USS George
Washington carrier group within striking range of Pyongyang. The US Navy has also
positioned Aegis destroyers that are capable of intercepting short- and medium-range
ballistic missiles headed to Seoul. Members of the US Congress are calling for regime
change in North Korea while Kim stated on television that death with dignity is better
than foreign occupation. Perhaps the greatest sign of the gravity of the situation is that
American armed forces are at DEFCON 3, which is the highest level of defense readiness
since the attacks of September 11, 2001.

This morning, a DPRK representative to the United Nations reiterated his countrys
demands. He also added an offer to fully engage South Korea in peace talks, but on the
condition that every American soldier must left the peninsula first. Russian President
Vladimir Putin suggested that this is a bargain that the allies should take. He said, This
proves that the real obstacle to world peace is the United States and its stubborn refusal
to adapt to a changing world.









One Problem, Four Questions

Any political problem in international relations, especially one as complex as inter-
Korean relations, can be broken down into smaller problems. By doing so, it is easier to
observe how much the diverse topics with IR relate to each other.

Each of the four questions listed here connects the big problem (i.e. standoff on the
Korean peninsula) to specific themes within IR (e.g. security, human rights, trade,
development.)

Security Committee

What should be the international response to the demands of North Korea?

Human Rights Committee

Thousands of North Koreans are living in poverty and starvation. What can the
international community do to assist the North Korean people?

Disarmament Committee

How can we encourage disarmament in the face of a renewed arms race?

Economic Committee

North Korea has heavy sanctions already in place. Should the international community
impose additional sanctions or consider removing them in exchange for the Norths
cooperation?










SIMULATION OVERVIEW

You will assume the role of a diplomat attending an emergency meeting of a UN
committee. Each of the four committees mentioned above will be tasked with
developing and approving (by majority vote) an answer to their assigned question.

You have two goals during this simulation. As a diplomat, your primary goal is to
accurately represent your countrys interests. (You will work with your mentor and the
rest of your group to research your countrys foreign policy prior to the simulation.)
Your secondary goal is help your committee answer its question by the end of the
second meeting. You will only be successful if you achieve both goals.

If you achieve both goals with distinction, the simulation organizers will consider you for
your committees Best Delegate award. In addition, country groups who will
successfully achieve their objectives will be considered for the Best Delegation award.

Countries

While there are 192 members of the United Nations, we will only include a select group
of governments in our simulation. This is an incomplete list, but will give you an idea of
the diversity you will encounter during the simulation.

1) Argentina
2) Australia
3) Brazil
4) Canada
5) China
6) Cuba
7) Egypt
8) France
9) Germany
10) India
11) Indonesia
12) Iran
13) Japan
14) Malaysia
15) Nigeria
16) North Korea
17) Pakistan
18) Philippines
19) Russia
20) Saudi Arabia
21) South Africa
22) South Korea
23) Switzerland
24) Spain
25) Turkey
26) United Kingdom
27) United States

Rules of Procedure will be posted in a separate document on Blackboard.


BACKGROUND: A HISTORY OF CONFLICT
NB: This section reflects ACTUAL events and is NOT hypothetical.

Inter-Korean tensions have persisted since the end of the Second World War. When the
United States and the Soviet Union failed to agree upon a post-war government for
Korea, they partitioned the nation into a communist North Korea called the Democratic
Peoples Republic of Korea and an autocratic, pro-Western South Korea known as the
Republic of Korea. The Korean War ensued in 1950, when the North invaded the South
under the pretext of national unification. The South, aided by a multinational coalition
organized and authorized by the United Nations, barely repelled the invasion at first.
The United States doubled its efforts on behalf of the South and helped to push the
DPRK back past Seoul. This alarmed the Peoples Republic of China, whose Peoples
Liberation Army crossed the Yalu River and joined the fight on behalf of the North.
Within three years, the war was fought to a standstill.

The Korean Armistice Agreement of 1953 ended immediate hostilities, but offered no
long-term political solution to the rivalry between the two Koreas. Both sides agreed to
separate their forces along a demilitarized zone (DMZ) that roughly followed the 38
th

parallel. The North and South heavily fortified their respective sides of the DMZ; US
forces joined their South Korean allies on the DMZ and remain there today. Over the
next six decades, there were a handful of incidents that threatened to escalate to full-
blown crises. Thankfully, none of them did.

North Korea (formally known as the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea) has been,
and continues to be, one of the worlds most repressive totalitarian regimes. Ordinary
North Koreans have effectively no political power, no civil rights, and no economic
freedom. A powerful autocrat leads an informal group of military leaders, bureaucrats,
and party officials that exercise complete control over a police state that controls all
facets of life. The current leader, Kim Jong-un, happens to be the son of the second
leader and the grandson of the first. Despite (or perhaps due to) his inherited role, he
has struggled to consolidate his power since his succession in 2011.

Life in North Korea is extremely difficult for the average person. In terms of
development, it is far behind Western standards. Large swaths of the rural countryside
lack access to electricity, running water, and automobiles. The cities fare better, but
have their own problems. The North Korean economy is effectively an autarky. Twice in
recent history, devastating famines were so bad that they proved to be existential
threats to the entire nation.

Despite a dysfunctional political and economic outlook, the DPRK has one of the worlds
most formidable militaries. The government spends an estimated 25% of GDP p.a. on
the massive Korean Peoples Army. In 2006, the KPA successfully detonated a nuclear
weapon. It also possesses ballistic missiles that can deliver nuclear weapons up to 1500
km and is developing a missile that could reach the continental United States. Despite
the tide of criticism coming from South Korea and its allies, the DPRK withdrew from the
Non-Proliferation Treaty and continues to defy international norms.

South Korea (formally known as the Republic of Korea) is most vulnerable to the DPRKs
bellicosity and growing nuclear weapon program. Despite a shared history with the
North, it has taken a different route since the end of the Korean War. In the mid-20
th

century, the ROK was a repressive military state plagued by coups and martial law.
Despite an illiberal government, the economy flourished and newly prosperous middle
class demanded democratic reforms. A quick transformation followed the end of
martial law in 1987. Today, South Korea is the worlds eleventh-largest economy, a
major global trade partner, a member of the OECD, and a significant player in
international politics. Further, South Koreans enjoy a standard of living on par with the
worlds most developed societies.

Relations with North Korea are perennially high on the Souths political agenda. Many
families were separated because of the schism and ensuing poor relations between the
two states. Due to the persistent threat from the North, the ROK Armed Forces
continue to be based on conscription, meaning that all men must serve in the military.
Relations with the North often frame presidential elections and voters judge candidates,
in part, on how they handle crises with Pyongyang. In 1997, President Kim Dae-jung
launched the Sunshine Policy, which sought to engage the DPRK in a constructive
dialogue that would lead to a permanent reconciliation between North and South. In
2007, after the DPRK became a nuclear power, President Lee Myung-bak reversed the
Sunshine Policy and took a more confrontational position. Curiously, the ROK has
shown little interest in developing its own nuclear weapon to counter the DPRK and is
content to remain under the aegis of the USs nuclear umbrella.

The United States of America is also vulnerable to DPRK aggression. American soldiers
have been positioned in South Korea since the end of the Korean War. At the Cold
Wars height, over sixty-thousand Americans guarded the DMZ and provided the
infrastructure necessary to insert an additional 250,000 troops in the event of renewed
hostilities. Between 1991 and 2004, the size of United States Forces Korea (USFK)
dropped to its current level of 28,500 soldiers. The United States no longer stores
nuclear weapons in South Korea, but still possesses the delivery systems available to
launch a strike against the DPRK from the continental United States at a moments
notice. Early this year, the Obama administration added 800 troops to the USFK as part
of its Asia Pivot strategy, sometimes known as the Rebalancing towards Asia.

Relations between the ROK and the US have been strong, yet have their challenges.
Local Koreans continue to have problems with US soldiers and how they conduct
themselves when on leave. Loud American warplanes create a nuisance for Koreans
living near American airstrips. American policymakers long for the ROK to shoulder
more of the costs of their defense. None of these issues are likely to be resolved
anytime soon.

Even though the Korean peninsula has been one of the tenses places on earth over the
last sixty years, there have been signs of hope for a lasting peace. The Agreed
Framework of 1994, which traded a suspension of the Norths nuclear program in
exchange for desperately needed fuel and food, showed that cooperation between the
US and North Korea was possible. During the Sunshine period, the DPRK welcomed
South Korean investment in two special industrial zones. The two Koreas also worked
together to reunite a limited number of families, or at least allowed to split families to
visit each other under government supervision. Taken together, there is evidence to
suggest that the North and South can find common ground when they are properly
motivated.

In recent history, however, things have not gone so well in Korea. The rise of Kim Jong-
un precipitated great uncertainty and turmoil in North Korean politics and society. In
addition to the coups and purges mentioned earlier, the DRPK fabricated crises with the
South as a means to divert attention from domestic woes. In 2010, KPA artillery shelled
an ROK village on a disputed island. Months later, a North Korean submarine allegedly
attacked and sank the ROKS Cheonan. The two events were met with restraint from the
South and the US, yet they ossified the position of ROK hardliners and cemented public
opinon against the resumption of the Sunshine Policy. Last year, the DPRK declared the
Korean Armistice Agreement invalid, thus allowing the KPA to reposition its forces. This
could give the North a strategic advantage in the early stages of a renewed conflict with
the South.