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UNIT 1: FOUNDATIONS OF GOVERNMENT U.S.

GOVERNMENT | JULIAN

Chapter 2 Political socialization
The Role of Public Opinion
Public opinion clearly plays an important role in our political system. Our two most recent presidents,
Barack Obama and George W. Bush, clearly demonstrate this. While Bush enjoyed early widespread
support for his war on terrorism, the public eventually expressed deep skepticism about the war in Iraq.
Similarly, while a majority of Americans supported an overhaul of the U.S. health care system, the
compromise that eventually came to be known as Obamacare has been a political minefield for the
president and his political allies. Two other presidents embody just how powerful public opinion can be.
Opposition to the war in Vietnam was a factor in 1968 when President Lyndon Johnson declined to run
for reelection. Public opinion on the scandal surrounding the 1972 Watergate break-in gave Congress
strong support to initiate impeachment proceeding against President Nixon.
Defining Public Opinion
Public opinion is defined as the aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of
adults. Public opinion is made known in a democracy by voting and responding to polls, as well as
participating in protests and lobbying by interest groups. There are very few issues on which most
Americans agree. When a large proportion of the public does appear to hold the same view on an issue,
a consensus exists. If opinion is polarized between two quite different positions, divisive opinion exists.
How Public Opinion Is Formed: Political Socialization
The process by which individuals acquire political beliefs and opinions is called political socialization.
The most important influence in this process is the family. Children have a strong need for parental
approval and are very receptive to the parents opinions. The clearest family influence is political party
identification. Schools are also an important influence. Education seems to influence the level of activity
in the political process. The more education a person receives the higher the level of political activity.
Friendships and associations in peer groups can influence political attitudes.
At a time in which the media permeates almost every aspect of American life, it is hardly surprising that
the media has a major influence on public opinion. When events produce a long-term political impact, it
is said that a generational effect results. For example, voters who grew up in the 1930s during the Great
Depression were likely to become Democrats. It will be interesting to see whether 9/11 produces a
generational effect, as well as the influence of social media where individuals are as likely to be
producers as they are consumers.
Some individuals, known as opinion leaders, have the ability to influence others because of position,
expertise, or personality. The election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 produced a brief period of economic
prosperity, which led many young people to identify with the Republican Party; the election of Bill
Clinton in 1992 showed the potential power of motivating and mobilizing the youth vote, or those
voters between the ages of 18 and 24, which Barack Obama capitalized on again in 2008.
The recency approach suggests that the closer in time a learning experience is to relevant adult opinions
or decisions, the greater is its impact. The primacy approach views childhood as the most important
period of political socialization; accordingly, individuals basic values reflect the experiences of their pre-
adult years; they most likely learn political attitudes by the time they are adolescents.
Political socialization continues during adulthood, particularly in the community and the workplace.
According to the persistence hypothesis, adults acquire attitudes early in life and tend to not change
them later. In contrast, according to the openness hypothesis, people adjust their attitudes and
UNIT 1: FOUNDATIONS OF GOVERNMENT U.S. GOVERNMENT | JULIAN

behavior when situations change; these transformations can be substantial. Political socialization
continues during late adulthood, with older citizens voting at a higher percentage than younger ones.
Political Preferences and Voting Behavior
The factors that influence voting decisions include socioeconomic and demographic factors such as
education, income and socioeconomic status, religion, ethnic background, gender, age, and geographic
region. Those with only a high school education are likely to identify with Republicans, those with
college degrees may go either Democratic or Republican, while those with postgraduate education are
likely to identify themselves as Democrats. Those with low incomes are likely to support a
governmental role in the economy while those with high incomes tend to favor a more limited
governmental role. At the same time, lower income Americans tend to be more culturally conservative
while those with high incomes are likely to endorse cultural liberalism. While the conventional wisdom
holds that those with low incomes vote Democratic and those with higher incomes vote Republican,
there is evidence that professionals and the extremely wealthy are leaning toward the Democratic Party.
Religion is a complex factor to define as an influence. However, it can be said that those who define
themselves as fundamentalists or evangelicals and those who attend church services frequently are
likely to vote Republican. African Americans tend to support Democratic candidates. The Hispanic
community tends to be somewhat divided, with many supporting the Democrats but Cuban-Americans
supporting Republicans. The election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 evidenced a gender gap, in which
women were more likely to vote for Democrats for president. This gap continues into the 2000s.
Geography also plays a role. Those in the South, the Great Plains and the Rocky Mountains tend to favor
Republicans while those on the West Coast and the Northeast favor Democrats.
Measuring Public Opinion
One of the most common means of gathering and measuring public opinion is through the use of
opinion polls. The most important principle in poll taking is randomness. If drawn from a truly random
sample of opinions, a poll should be relatively accurate. Gallup and Roper polls interview about 1,500
individuals to get within a margin of error of 3%. Public opinion polls are snapshots of opinions at a
specific time on a specific question. The timing of the poll, a sampling error of interviewing too few
people, and the wording of the question can produce an inaccurate prediction of a political outcome.
Public Opinion and the Political Process
Although Americans are divided into numerous ethnic, religious, and political groups, the American
political culture binds us together with the core values of (1) liberty, equality, and property; (2) support
for religion; and (3) community service and personal achievement. Another important aspect of public
opinion is the trust that individuals express in the government and political institutions. Unfortunately,
trust in political institutions reached an all-time low in 1992. Public opinion about the confidence in
various institutions in our society declined throughout the 1990s. The military and the church are the
institutions that have the publics highest levels of confidence. While the public may have little
confidence in some government institutions, they still turn to government to solve major problems.
While the exact influence of public opinion on government policy cannot be measured, it appears that
politicians who ignore public opinion run a great risk of defeat in the next election.

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