Ir. Ahmad Hadri Haris hadri@mbipv.net.my Chief Technical Advisor, MBIPV Project Ministry of Energy, Green Technology & Water Malaysia National Electronics Seminar, Penang 29 th 30 th November 2010 Malaysia Green Technology Policy Launched by YAB Prime Minister on 24 th July 2009 Policy Statement Green Technology shall be a driver to accelerate the national economy and promote sustainable development. 2 DEFINITION Green Technology is the development and application of products, equipment, and systems used to conserve the natural environment and resources, which minimises and reduces the negative impact of human activities. It minimises the degradation of the environment; It has a zero or low green house gas (GHG) emission; It is safe for use and promotes healthy and improved environment for all forms of life; It conserves the use of energy and natural resources; and It promotes the use of renewable resources. Malaysia Green Technology Policy 3 Vanguard 1 Satellite (1958): 1 st solar PV application Solar Photovoltaic (PV) 4 5 How does PV work? 5 Source: MBIPV, 2009 1 st Type 2 nd Type 3 rd Type Types of PV Technology 6 Daily PV Applications 7 PV modules Electrical loads (AC) Electrical loads (AC/DC) Battery Inverter Grid supply/ connection Controller New: Mostly applied in urban areas Does not require battery (utility grid as battery) Inverter (critical) converts DC to AC Excess electricity is sold to utility Applied in remote areas / areas with no utility supply (islands) Requires battery (critical) Controller regulates battery, can be connected to DC load Grid-connected PV Stand-alone PV PV in Power Generation Sector 8 World Solar PV Installed Capacity (1995-2009) 9 Source: REN21 World Solar PV Market Share (2009) 10 Source: REN21 Future Prospect: PV Supply (to 2014) 11 Source: Navigant Consulting Inc PV Experience Curve 12 Source: Navigant Consulting Inc, AMAT Market Perspective & Price Reduction - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 - 5 10 15 20 25 30 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Malaysia kWp/Year Germany MWp/Year Japan MWp/Year USA MWp/Year Malaysia RM/Wp/Year Germany RM/Wp/Year Japan RM/Wp/Year USA RM/Wp/Year RM/Wp Source: IEA-PVPS, MBIPV MWp 13 14 Source: DuPont, Yingli Recent PV Module Price Trend (2009) Prospect for PV Grid Parity 15 Source: Morgan Stanley Research World Top 10 PV Manufacturers (2006-2009) 16 Rank 2006 MWp 2007 MWp 2008 MWp 2009 MWp 1 Sharp Solar 435 Sharp Solar 363 Q-Cells 547 First Solar 1,057 2 Q-Cells 240 Q-Cells 344 Suntech 498 Suntech 672 3 Kyocera 180 Suntech 309 Sharp Solar 458 Sharp Solar 570 4 Suntech 152 Kyocera 207 First Solar 435 Yingli 525 5 Sanyo 121 First Solar 186 Kyocera 290 Q-Cells 518 6 Mitsubishi Electric 111 Motech 167 Motech 254 JA Solar 509 7 Schott Solar 96 Sanyo 155 Sanyo 220 Trina 399 8 Motech 92 SolarWorl d 136 SunPower 215 SunPower 347 9 BP Solar 78 Mitsubishi Electric 121 JA Solar 212 Kyocera 340 10 SunPower 63 SunPower 102 BP Solar 148 Motech 338 TOTAL 1,568 (79%) 2,090 (68%) 3,277 (60%) 5,275 (67%) Total Shipments 1,985 3,073 5,492 7,913 Source: Navigant Consulting Inc First Solar (Up to 1,337 MW: 2008-2011) Q-Cells (600 MW: 2009) Tokuyama (3,000 tonnes: 2012) Sunpower (1,000 MW: 2011) STX Energy Flextronics (Q-Cells) (200 MW) MEMC (wafer) Solartif 17 Malaysia: Solar PV Manufacturing Malaysias Ambition: ETP (NKEA) 18 17% share ETP launched by YAB PM on 25 th Oct 2010 First Solar (Up to 1,337 MW: 2008-2011) Q-Cells (600 MW: 2009) Tokuyama (3,000 tonnes: 2012) Sunpower (1,000 MW: 2011) STX Energy Flextronics (Q-Cells) (200 MW) MEMC (wafer) ETP (NKEA) Focus 19 Solartif EPP5: Increase Silicon Production (170 ktons by 2020) EPP6: Grow Wafer & Cell Production (23 GW by 2020) EPP7: Increase Module Production Silicon Ingot and wafers Solar cells Solar modules System components Installation and service Equipment providers Product supply PV Industry Value Chain (c-Si) 20 Mining Processing Solar modules System components Installation and service Equipment providers Product supply PV Industry Value Chain (TF) 21 Equipment providers Product supply Equipment providers Product supply In 2008 (in RM billion) Approx. 0.7 2.2 3.6 4.3 72 7.2 Source: Daniel Ruoss, 2009 30 2 18 20 22 38 60 80 Revenues Revenues PV Value Chain & Business Revenues (2008) 22 Crystalline Thin film Equipment Industry & Supply Industry PV Value Chain in Malaysia 23 Solar Companies & Market Capitalisation (2008) 24 Source: Pegasus, Global PV Market Research Report 2007 Increasing scale of production Increasing investment cost per MW Increasing market players Installation / System integration Silicon Module Wafers Solar cells Ingots Few market players Low CAPEX High-tech production (incl. R&D) and size of facility increases High CAPEX Many market players Understanding The PV Value Chain 25 The following graph indicates investment cost trends for c-Si PV value chain. Not to be use for final economic analysis or business plan. Figures vary whether manual or automated concept. Solar Manufacturing: Investment Requirements 26 Profit range (%) Polysilicon 30-50 Wafers 20-40 Solar cells 20-30 Modules 5-15 BOS components 10-20 Installation / M&E 5-20 Trend of Profit Distribution 27 Source: Daniel Ruoss 2011: PV Manufacturing Countries Projected PV production in 2011: 18 GW (high) 28 1 1 1 7 2 3 4 0 9 4 5 9 4 6 4 4 6 8 4 6 8 4 8 6 7 8 4 1 , 2 7 8 1 , 8 8 4 2 , 5 3 0 9 , 5 3 0 2 0 , 5 3 0 3 3 , 5 3 0 4 8 , 5 3 0 6 5 , 5 3 0 8 4 , 5 3 0 1 0 5 , 5 3 0 1 2 9 , 5 3 01 5 7 , 5 3 0 - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 Annual kW Cumulative kW MBIPV Project 29 Post- MBIPV: Feed-in Tariff + Solar Power Plants (ETP) 200 MW GW SPPs Need for Local Market Support Thank You MBIPV Project TOI-U07 & U08, 1st Floor, No. 5, Jalan P16, Precinct 16, 62150 Putrajaya, Malaysia E: infopv@mbipv.net.my www.mbipv.net.my