Created and Narrated by Dr. G.

Steven Rhiel
Basic Probability
1. Simple Event
Outcome With ____ Characteristic
2. Joint Event
2 Characteristics Occurring
3. Compound Event
_____________ Event Occurring
4. Sample Space: ____________ Collection of Outcomes



Events and Sample Spaces
A: Female
B: Under age 20, < 20
C: Has 3 credit cards
D: Red card from a deck of bridge cards
E: Ace card from a deck of bridge cards
Simple Event: Outcome with 1 Characteristic
Joint Event 2 Events Occurring Simultaneously
A and B, (AB): Female, Under age 20
D and E, (DE): Red, ace card from bridge deck

A or R, (A U R): Ace or Red card from bridge deck

Compound Event: One or Another Event Occurring




Mutually Exclusive
2 Outcomes That Cannot Occur at
the Same Time
Collectively Exhaustive
1 Outcome in Sample Space Must
Occur
Experiment: Observe Gender
Event Properties
Both _______________ in Same Person

_______________




Null Event
Complement of Event
Null Event
Event Properties
Club & Diamond on ______________
For Event A, All Events ________: A




Contingency
S = {______}
Listing
Visualizing Sample Space
Table

___ Total
___ ___
__
_____
___
___
__
Total
___

___

___
Joint Event: Female, Under age 20
S = _______________________
_____
___
Contingency Table
Simple Event




1
.5
0
Certain
Impossible
What is Probability?
Lies Between __ and __
Numerical measure of likelihood that
the event will occur
Simple Event
Joint Event
Compound


P(D) = ________________
Of 100 Parts Inspected, Only 2
Defects!
Probability of Simple Event
P(Event) =
T
X
X = _______ of outcomes in
which the event occurs
T = ______ number of
possible events
Event
Event
B
1

B
2
Total
A
1

P(A
1



B
1
) P(A
1

B
2

)
P(A
1
)
A
2

P(A
2



B
1
) P(A
2



B
2
) P(A
2
)
Total
P(B
1
) P(B
2
)
1
_______(Simple) Probability
Marginal and Joint Probability Using Contingency Table
_____________
Computing Joint Probability
The probability of a joint event, A and B:
( and ) = ( )
number of outcomes from both A and B
total number of possible outcomes in sample space
P A B P A B

Color
Type
Red Black
Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
Joint Event: Draw 1 Card; Note Kind, Color
P(Ace) =
___________ ______________ P(Red) =
________
P(Ace AND Red) = ?
_______
Contingency Table Simple and Joint Probability Example
Created and Narrated by Dr. G. Steven Rhiel
Examples of Probability
Compound Probability Addition Rule
2. For Overlapping Events
1. Used to Get Compound Probabilities
for Union of Events
P(A OR B) = P(A B)
= __________________
3. For Mutually Exclusive Events:
P(A OR B) = P(A B) = _____________
Color
Type
Red Black
Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
Compound Event: Draw 1 Card; Note Kind, Color
_________
Addition Rule Example
__________
P(Ace OR Black) = P(Ace) + P(Black) P(Ace
Black)
___________
-
________________________________________


Try This One
P(NA or Red) =______________
Color
Type
Red Black
Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
Joint Event: Draw 1 Card; Note Kind, Color
P(Ace) =
P(Ace AND Red) = 2/52 = .0385 P(Red) =
4/52 =.08
P(Ace AND Red) = ?
26/52 =.5
Contingency Table Simple and Joint Probability Example
P(B) =
P(NA) =
P(A and B) =
P(NA and R) =
___________
___________
___________
___________
Try These Probabilities
Conditional Probability
2. ______ Original Sample Space to
Account for New Information
________ Certain Outcomes
1. Event Probability _____ that Another
Event Occurred
3. P(A / B) = __________

Color
Type
Red Black
Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
Conditional Event: Draw 1 Card; Given Kind, Color
______

________________________________________
_________
Conditional Probability Using Contingency Table
Revised
Sample
Space
P(B/A) =
P(NA/B) =
P(B/NA) =
________
___________
___________
Try These Conditional Probabilities
___________________________
15% of students get an A in Calculus
10% of students get an A in Statistics
5% of students get an A in both Calculus and Statistics
If a student got an A in Calculus, what is the probability
that the student will get an A in Statistics?
_______
_______
_____________
Conditional Probability Example
Created and Narrated by Dr. G. Steven Rhiel
Statistical Independence
Color
Type
Red Black
Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
Independence
_______________ ________________
_________________
Contingency Table
Tests For
P(A / B) = P(A)
Statistical Independence
Color
Type
Red Black
Total
Ace 1 3 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 27 52
Independence
_______________ ________________
________________
Created and Narrated by Dr. G. Steven Rhiel
Multiplication Rule


1. Used to Get Joint Probabilities for
Intersection of Events
Called Joint Events
2. P(A / B) = P(A and B)
P(B)
3. For Independent Events:
P(A and B) = P(A B) = P(A) * P(B)
P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B/A)
= P(B)*P(A/B)
Multiplication Rule
______________
Color
Type
Red Black
Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 27 52
Multiplication Rule Example
________________________
________________
There are 6 members from the accounting department that are
considering applying for a new position in their company. Four
members from the IT department are considering the same
position. Two are going to be selected for interviews. If these are
selected at random what is the probability that:
______________ _____________ _______
Multiplication Rule Example
What is the probability
that they are both from
accounting?
What is the probability
that the first is from
accounting and the
second
is from IT?
_____________
___________________
____________
___________________
_____________
____________
____________
_____________ ____________
10 total members

6 from accounting

4 from IT
Multiplication Rule Example Contd
_____________
Given the previous problem, what are the
probabilities if you sample with replacement. For
example, after each person is interviewed they
are returned to the group and can be called for a
second interview, immediately.
_______________________________________________
______________________________________________
Multiplication Rule Example Contd
P(A1 and A2) =
P(A1 and IT2) = P(A1)P(IT2) = 6/10 *
Created and Narrated by Dr. G. Steven Rhiel
Bayes Theorem
Bayes Theorem
Mutually Exclusive Events
Revised Probability
Application of Conditional Probability
Apply Bayes'
Permits Revising Old Probabilities Based on New Information
Prior Probability New Information
P(B
i
| A) =

P(A | B
i
P(B
i
)
P(A | B
1
P(B
1
) + + P(A | B
k
P(B
k
)

P(B
i


A)
P(A)
)
) )



=
Bayes Theorem Formula
Same
Event
All B
i
s are the
same event
(e.g. B
2
)!
The Marketing Manager of a toy manufacturing firm is planning
to introduce a new toy into the market. In the past, 40% of the
toys introduced by the company have been successful, 60% have
not been successful. Before the toy is actually marketed, market
research is conducted and a report is compiled. In the past, 80 %
of the successful toys received favorable reports and 30% of the
unsuccessful toys also received favorable reports. The market
manager would like to know the probability that the new toy will
be successful if it receives a favorable report.
B1 - successful toy B2 - unsuccessful toy A - favorable report
P(B1) = __ P(B2) = __ P(A/B1) = __ P(A/B2) = __
Bayes Theorem Example
Event
Prior
Probability
B
i
P(B
i
) P(A|B
i
) P(B
i



A) P(B
i
|A)
B
1

________ ________
___________
B
2

________ ________ ________ ___________
___ ______ ___
Bayes Theorem Example: Table Solution
P(B1) = .4 P(B2) = .6 P(A/B1) = .8 P(A/B2) = .3
Conditional
Probability
Joint
Probability
Post
Probability
________
Suppose that 60% of the people in the last election voted. It is
also known that 90% of the people who voted will say yes I
did when asked and 30% of the people who did not vote will
say yes I did when asked. Suppose you ask a friend of yours
if they voted and he/she says yes I did. What is the
probability that your friend really voted?
Bayes Example 2
Event
Prior
Probability
B
i
P(B
i
) P(A|B
i
) P(B
i



A) P(B
i
|A)
B
1

B
2

1.0
X
=
Bayes Theorem Example: Table Solution
Conditional
Probability
Joint
Probability
Post
Probability
Problems:
1. a - d
2. a-g
3. a,c
4. a,c
5. a-c
6. a, c , d-a
7. a, b
8. a, b
Basic Probability:
Assignments
Problem 1
A sample of 500 respondents was selected in a large metropolitan area to
study consumer behavior. Among the questions asked was, Do you enjoy
shopping for clothing? Of 240 males, 136 answered yes. Of 260 females,
224 answered yes. Construct a contingency table or a Venn diagram to
evaluate the probabilities. What is the probability that a respondent chosen
at random:
a. Enjoys shopping for clothing?
b. Is female and enjoys shopping for clothing?
c. Is female or enjoys shopping for clothing?
d. Is a male or a female?
a. P(YS) = 360/500 = .72
b. P(F and YS) = 224/500 = .448
c. P(F or YS) = 260/500 + 360/500 - 224/500 = 396/500 = .792
d. P(M or F) = 1
Solution 1
Y N Total
M 136 104 240
F 224 36 260
Total 360 140 500
Problem 2
The owner of a restaurant serving Continental-style entrees was interested in studying
ordering patterns of patrons for the Friday-to-Sunday weekend time period. Records were
maintained that indicated the demand for dessert during the same time period. The owner
decided to study two other variables, along with whether a dessert was ordered: the
gender of the individual and whether a beef entre was ordered. The results are as follows:
Gender
Dessert
Ordered
Male Female Total
Yes 96 40 136
No 224 240 464
Total 320 280 600
Beef Entre
Dessert
Ordered
Yes No Total
Yes 71 65 136
No 116 348 464
Total 187 413 600

(Problem continued on next slide)
A waiter approaches a table to take an order. What is the probability that the first
customer to order at the table
a. Orders a dessert?
b. Orders a dessert or a beef entre?
c. Is a female and does not order a dessert?
d. Is a female or does not order a dessert?
e. Suppose the first person what the waiter takes the dessert order from is a
female. What is the probability that she does not order dessert?
f. Are gender and ordering dessert independent?
g. Is ordering a beef entre independent of whether the persons orders
dessert?
Problem 2 contd
(Problem continued from previous slide)
Problem 3
Use same template as
problem 1. Create tables
using insert table.
Gender
Enjoys shopping
for clothing
male female Total
Yes 136 224 360
No 104 36 140
Total 240 260 500
a. Suppose the respondent chosen is female. What is the probability that she does not
enjoy shopping for clothing?
b. Suppose the respondent chosen enjoys shopping for clothing. What is the probability
that the individual is male?
c. Are enjoying shopping for clothing and the gender of the individual independent?
Explain.
A sample of 500 respondents was selected in a large metropolitan area to study
consumer behavior, with the following results:
Problem 4
Each year, ratings are compiled concerning the performance of new cars during the first
90 days of use. Suppose that the cars have been categorized according to whether the
car needs warranty-related repair (yes or no) and the country in which the company
manufacturing the car is based (United States or not United States). Based on the data
collected, the probability that the new car needs a warranty repair is 0.04, the
probability that it was manufactured by a U.S-based company is 0.60, and the
probability that the new car needs a warranty repair and was manufactured by a U.S.
based company is 0.025.
a. Suppose you know that a company based in the United States manufactures a
particular car. What is the probability that the car needs warranty repair?
b. Are need for warranty repair and location of the company manufacturing the car
independent?
Problem 4
Each year, ratings are compiled concerning the performance of new cars during the first
90 days of use. Suppose that the cars have been categorized according to whether the
car needs warranty-related repair (yes or no) and the country in which the company
manufacturing the car is based (United States or not United States). Based on the data
collected, the probability that the new car needs a warranty repair is 0.04, the
probability that it was manufactured by a U.S-based company is 0.60, and the
probability that the new car needs a warranty repair and was manufactured by a U.S.
based company is 0.025.
a. Suppose you know that a company based in the United States manufactures a
particular car. What is the probability that the car needs warranty repair?
b. Are need for warranty repair and location of the company manufacturing the car
independent?
4. P(US) = .6 P(W) = .04 P(W and US) = .025
a) P(W/US) = .025/.6 = .0417

b) Dependent
P(W/US) P(W)
Problem 5
A standard deck of cards is being used to play a game. There are four suits
(hearts, diamonds, clubs, and spades), each having 13 faces (ace,
2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10, jack, queen, and king), making a total of 52 cards. This
complete deck is thoroughly mixed, and you will receive the first 2 cards from
the deck without replacement.
a. What is the probability that both cards are queens?
b. What is the probability that the first card is a 10 and the second card is a 5 or 6?
c. If you were sampling with replacement, what would be the answer in (a)?
d. In the game of blackjack, the picture cards (jack, queen, king) count as 10 points and the
ace counts as either 1 or 11 points. All other cards are counted at their face value,
Blackjack is achieved if 2 cards total 21 points. What is the probability of getting
blackjack in this problem?
Problem 6
A box of nine gloves contains two left-handed gloves and seven right-
handed gloves.
a. If two gloves are randomly selected from the box without replacement,
what is the probability that both gloves selected will be right-handed?
b. If two gloves are randomly selected from the box without replacement,
what is the probability there will be one right-handed glove and one
left-handed glove selected?
c. If three gloves are selected with replacement, what is the probability
that all three will be left-handed?
d. If you were sampling with replacement, what would be the answers to
(a) and (b)?
3. a,c
a) P(NS/F) = 36/260
b) P(M/YS) = 136/360
c) No P(YS/F) not = P(YS)
4. P(US) = .6 P(W) = .04 P(W and US) = .025
a) P(W/US) = .025/.6 = .0417

c) Dependent
5. a) P(Q1 and Q2) = P(Q1)P(Q2/Q1) = (4/52)(3/51) = .0045
b) P(ten1 and five-six2) = P(ten1)P(five-six2/ten1) = (4/52)(8/51) = .0121
c) P(Q1)P(Q1) = (4/52)(4/52) = .0059
6. a) (7/9)(6/8) = .5833

c) .011 d-a) (7/9)(7/9) = .6049
Solutions 3, 4, 5, 6
Gender
ENJOYS SHOPPING
FOR CLOTHING
Male Female Total
Yes 136 224 360
No 104 36 140
Total 240 260 500
Problem 7
An advertising executive is studying television viewing habits of married men
and women during prime-time hours. Based on past viewing records, the
executive has determined that during prime time, husbands are watching
television 60% of the time. When the husband is watching television, 40% of
the the time the wife is also watching. When the husband is not watching
television, 30% of the time the wife is watching television. Find the probability
that
a. If the wife is watching television, the husband is also watching television.
b. The wife is watching television in prime time.
Problem 8
Olive Construction Company is determining whether it should submit a bid
for a new shopping center. In the past, Olives main competitor, Base
Construction Company, has submitted bids 70% of the time. If Base
Construction Company does not bid on a job, the probability that Olive
Construction Company will get the job is 0.50. If Base Construction Company
bids on a job, the probability that Olive Construction Company will get the
job is 0.25.
a. If Olive Construction Company gets the job, what is the probability that
Base Construction Company did not bid?
b. What is the probability that Olive Construction Company will get the
job?
8.
Solutions 7, 8
Event P(H
i
) P(w/H
i
) P(H
1
)P(W/H
i
) P(H
i
and W)
(H
1
) .6 .4 .24 .24/.36=.67
(H
2
) .4 .3 .12 .12/.36 = .33

P(W)= .36
B Bone to bids O- Olive Co wins job P(B) = .7 P(B
1
)=.3 P(O/B)=.25 P(O/B
1
)=.50
Event Prior
P(Bi)
Cond P(O/Bi) Joint
P(Bi)P(O/Bi)
Revised
P(Bi/O)
B .7 .25 .1750 .1750/.3250 =.5385
B .3 .50 .1500 .1500/.3250=.4615
P(O)=.3250 1.00
H
1
= Husband watch H
2
= Husband not watch W= Wife watches
7.