FactCheck Scotland: has the Scottish

government protected the NHS?

By Patrick Worrall-September !" #$%
&he claim
We've protected Scotland's NHS (rom the &ories' c)ts*+
,le- Neil
&he backgro)nd
&he yes campaign says independence is the best .ay to protect the NHS in
Scotland*
B)t con/dential doc)ments passed to the BBC by a senior .histle-blo.er
s)ggest there is a 0%$$m ()nding gap on the hori1on and the devolved
health service .ill need s.eeping re(orms to c)t costs a(ter the
re(erend)m*
&he claim has (orced the Scottish government to de(end its record on
r)nning the devolved NHS*
Health Secretary ,le- Neil said: 2We've protected Scotland's NHS (rom the
&ories' c)ts" and .ith independence .e can ens)re that it is never again
)nder threat (rom Westminster's dangero)s obsession .ith a)sterity*+
&he analysis
3et's remember the ()ndamentals* Westminster gives Scotland a block
grant 4 a l)mp s)m to spend on p)blic services as Holyrood sees /t*
3ondon can and has c)t this block grant" leading to overall red)ctions in the
Scottish government's spending po.er since #$$56$*
B)t NHS spending in 7ngland has gone )p in the same period 8slightly9 and
the Barnett (orm)la means that more spending in 7ngland e:)als more
spending in the devolved regions too* ;t's )p to Scotland ho. it spends the
money that arises (rom the Barnett system*
&he Scottish government says it has protected the NHS b)dget* ;s that
tr)e? Well" spending has gone )p in cash terms" b)t not in real terms*
<r Neil act)ally s.itched cleverly bet.een the t.o in one sentence today
.hen he said: 2=espite Scotland's b)dget being slashed by >*# per cent by
?eorge @sborne bet.een #$$6 and #$A6!" o)r increases in health
spending means that the NHS is receiving record high ()nding" .ith a
b)dget increase o( over 0bn bet.een #$$6 and #$A6!*+
&he >*# per cent c)t 8to the block grant9 is in real terms" b)t the 0bn
increase is in cash" and 0bn over /ve years is eaten )p by inBation*
3ast .eek the ;nstit)te (or Fiscal St)dies said that NHS spending in Scotland
(ell by per centin real terms bet.een #$$56$ and #$A6!* ;n 7ngland it
.ent )p by %*% per cent*
B)t it's tr)e the total amo)nt o( money allocated to Scotland in the block
has gone do.n" so perhaps the Scottish government had no choice b)t to
c)t health spending slightly" given all the other press)res on its b)dget?
&hat's certainly one .ay o( looking at it" b)t the ;FS makes t.o ()rther
points*

First" Scotland has s)Cered less (rom a)sterity c)ts than 7ngland: 2@ver the
same period the vagaries o( the Barnett (orm)la mean that Scotland .ill
have had to c)t overall p)blic service spending by less D by abo)t E per
cent rather than F per cent* B)t the Scottish government has chosen to
protect the NHS in Scotland slightly less than it has been protected in
7ngland*+
,nd the trend o( spending less money on Scotland's NHS than the Barnett
(orm)la allo.s pre-dates the era o( a)sterity:
2&his is not a ne. pattern* Bet.een #$$#-$F and #$$5-$ 4 years o( plenty
(or p)blic services rather than c)ts 4 real-terms health spending per person
gre. by #5 per cent in Scotland compared .ith a %F per cent increase
across the GH as a .hole*
&his .as despite overall p)blic service spending per person gro.ing by a
very similar amo)nt in Scotland 8#! per cent9 and the GH as a .hole 8#E per
cent9*
So it seems that historically" at least" Scottish governments in Holyrood
have placed less priority on ()nding the NHS in Scotland 8and more on
()nding other services9 than governments in Westminster have (or
7ngland*+
@ther independent research backs this )p* &his N)Ield &r)st-()nded st)dy
also (o)nd thatScottish governments spent less on health than 7ngland
bet.een #$$$6$ and #$#6F" b)ilding )p a s)rpl)s o( abo)t 05$$m to
spend on other services*
&he verdict
&he idea that the Scottish government has bravely str)ggled to protect the
NHS b)dget )nder intolerable press)re (rom Westminster is contradicted by
independent research*
&he reality is that Scottish governments have (or some years chosen to
increase health spending by less than it .ent )p in 7ngland*
@n the other hand" it remains the (act that .itho)t independence" Scotland
is at the mercy o( politicians in 3ondon i( they .ant to c)t the overall
b)dget (or p)blic spending north o( the border*
Perhaps the (airest .ay to s)m this )p is that there are risks attached to
staying in the )nion and to becoming independent*
&he ;FS and many others have said that an independent Scotland .ill (ace
to)gh spending decisions in the ()t)re" thanks to (alling oil reven)es and an
ageing pop)lation*
B)t .e kno. that there are more c)ts to Scotland's block grant on the .ay
)nder the coalition" and 3abo)r have made a commitment to contin)ing
.ith a programme o( a)sterity i( elected*
By Patrick Worrall
Posted by Thavam