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When-Issued Markets
Pegaret Pichler
Alex Stomper
October 4, 2009
Abstract
We analyse the pricing and allocation of unseasoned securities by means of mech-
anisms such as auctions or bookbuilding. Our analysis allows for the pricing and
allocation rules to be based not only on investors bids, but also on information
revealed through pre-issue trading of the securities in a when-issued or betting mar-
ket. The results explain why mechanisms for pricing equity securities typically allow
information from pre-issue markets to aect the issue price, while those for pricing
Treasuries do not.
Keywords: mechanism design; when-issued trading; primary security markets
JEL Classications: G32
Alex Stomper would like to thank Suresh Sundaresan for very inspiring discussions during his visit
to Vienna. We thank Wolfgang Aussenegg, Michel Habib, Jos van Bommel, David Goldstein, Eric
Hughson, Katherina Lewellen, Nisan Langberg, Christa Bouwman, and Josef Zechner for their helpful
comments. This paper has been presented at the Western Finance Association meetings, The European
Finance Associaton meetings, the FEEM Conference on Auctions and Market Design, Milan and at the
University of Colorado at Boulder, Northeastern University, MIT, NHH Norway, and the University of
Vienna.
Vienna Graduate School of Finance at the Institute for Advanced Studies & Northeastern University,
pegaretp@ihs.ac.at.
t
W t
P
t
0
t
C
7 days
direct
mechanism
when-issued
trading
ling of
price range
setting of
oer price
1 day
close
1
st
day
1
st
day of the
secondary
market
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3
median number of trading days during the years 1999 and 2000
Figure 1: The German IPO Pricing Process
Source: Aussenegg, et al. (2006)
when-issued trading prior to the auction is not very liquid. Thus, it appears that any sig-
nicant information that is revealed by when-issued trading is revealed after the auction
closes.
When-issued trading of IPO shares: When-issued trading also occurs in IPO mar-
kets, but (for regulatory reasons) mostly outside the U.S.
10
Cornelli, Goldreich and
Ljungqvist (2006) report that most German and Italian IPOs trade in when-issued mar-
kets while when-issued trading is less common in other European countries (such as France
or Sweden). The market with the highest incidence of when-issued trading is the German
IPO market. This market has been separately analyzed in L oer, Panther and Theissen
(2005) and Aussenegg, Pichler and Stomper (2006).
Figure 1 presents a time-line of the IPO pricing process in the German market. There
are three stages. During Stage 1 (prior to the posting of the price range), underwriters
gather information that is at least partially released when they le the preliminary oering
prospectus. When-issued trading opens at time t
W
, i.e., after the prospectus has been led.
This aspect of the timeline is typical of when-issued trading in European IPO markets.
The trading never opens before the ling of the preliminary oering prospectus.
11
As in
U.S. Treasury markets, when-issued trading continues up to the issue date.
The empirical evidence suggests that when-issued markets are informative, and that
these markets generate information that aects the IPO oering prices. L oer, Panther
10
U.S. Regulation M, Rule 105, which became eective on March 4, 1997, prohibits the covering of
short positions in IPO shares that were created within the last ve days before pricing, with allocations
received in the IPO. This prohibition eectively prevents when-issued trading. In addition to this rule,
there are also restrictions on trading in unregistered shares.
11
We thank Gary Beechener of Tullett & Tokyo Liberty (securities) Ltd. for providing this information.
6
and Theissen (2005) nd that the nal prices in the when-issued market are unbiased
predictors of opening prices in the secondary market. Aussenegg, Pichler and Stomper
(2006) and Cornelli, Goldreich and Ljungqvist (2006) present evidence that information
revealed through when-issued trading is incorporated into the pricing of bookbuilt issues.
The latter evidence is consistent with the word on the street. According to one of the
largest market makers in the German when-issued market for IPO shares: By observ-
ing when-issued trading, the underwriter can gauge the markets interest in an IPO.
12
Moreover, underwriters can respond to information revealed through when-issued trad-
ing since IPOs are not priced according to stringent rules. Underwriters are free to base
their pricing decisions on both information that they obtain directly from investors, and
information revealed through when-issued trading.
3 The Benchmark: No When-Issued Trading
In this section we present the basic model and we determine the optimal mechanism
without when-issued trading. A list of variables and their denitions is given in Table 2
in the Appendix.
3.1 The Basic Model
An issuer wishes to maximize expected proceeds from selling a xed number of securities.
Potential investors are risk neutral, and so are willing to purchase securities as long as
the expected return is nonnegative.
V is the unknown secondary market value of the
total oering: per security value times the number of securities sold. An investor who
purchases securities obtains a fraction of this value.
V is given by:
V = v
0
+ sw, (1)
where v
0
is the prior expected value of
V and w is a positive parameter that is strictly
smaller than v
0
. s is a random variable that can take on one of two realizations, s
{1, 1}. The prior probability that s = 1 is
0
= 1/2.
A fraction (0 < < 1/2) of all potential investors are privately informed. Each
informed investor has observed a noisy signal of s. The signal of investor i is a random
12
This quote was taken from the website of Schnigge AG, ://www.schnigge.de/info/service/pre-ipo-
trading.html. The original quote was in German: Der Emissionsf uhrer kann auf Grund der Han-
delst atigkeit im Handel per Erscheinen das Interesse des Marktes an der Neuemission messen.
7
variable
i
that can take on one of two realizations,
i
{1, 1}. Conditional on the
realization of s, the signals
i
and
j
of any two informed investors i and j are independent
of each other and identically distributed. With probability q > 1/2, any given informed
investor has correctly observed the realization of s. For an investor who sees a positive
signal, the probability that s = 1 is q and the probability that s = 1 is 1 q, so that
the expected value of s is q (1 q) = 2q 1 > 0. For an investor who sees a negative
signal, the expected value of s is 1 2q < 0. On average, a fraction q of investors will
have correctly observed the realization of s and (1 q) will have observed s. Model
(1) and the parameters v
0
, w, and q are all common knowledge.
We do not distinguish between the issuer and any intermediary, such as an underwriter,
who may assist in the security issuance process. We eectively treat these individuals as
a single agent, and in what follows we consistently use the term issuer to refer to this
agent. We assume that the issuer can identify a number of regular investors who are
privately informed. In Treasury issues the regular investors are the primary dealers; in
equity issues they are typically institutional investors. The issuer can elicit the regular
investors private information through a mechanism, and then allocate securities to these
investors. The issuer may also allocate securities to retail investors. These are investors
from whom the issuer does not attempt to elicit information. The offering is, however,
restricted to be uniform price, so the issuer cannot price discriminate between regular and
retail investors.
It has been shown that including retail investors in the allocation process is benecial
for the issuer, because doing so improves the incentives of informed investors to truthfully
reveal their information.
13
This improvement occurs because the issuer can allocate secu-
rities to retail investors if the regular investors report negative information about the value
of the securities. But, retail investors include both informed and uninformed investors;
as described above, only a fraction are informed. To ensure that a retail allocation can
be successfully placed, the issue may have to be priced at a discount so that uninformed
investors are willing to purchase securities. The issue price, p
I
, must be less than the
expected value of the issue: p
I
E[
V ] u
AS
, where u
AS
> 0 is the underpricing required
to compensate uninformed investors for adverse selection risk that they bear due to the
presence of informed investors in the market.
14
13
See Maksimovic and Pichler (2006) and Bennouri and Falconieri (2008).
14
Fewer informed investors place orders when an issue is overpriced (s = 1) than when it is underpriced
8
Our model of expected underpricing due to adverse selection risk, u
AS
, is a simplified
version of the model in Rock (1986). Underpricing is a function of the information asym-
metry that remains between informed and uninformed investors, conditional on the issue
price. This quantity is summarized by the parameter
p
, which is the probability that
s = 1, given all of the information that is used in the primary market pricing process. In
our model, this information is summarized by the issue price as a sucient statistic. The
level of underpricing due to adverse selection risk, derived in the Appendix, is:
u
AS
=
q 2
p
(1
p
) (2
p
1)
2
q
1 ((2
p
1)q + 1
p
)
w . (2)
If
p
is equal to the prior,
0
= 1/2, then no new information has been incorporated into
the issue price. If
p
= 0 or
p
= 1, then perfect information about the realization of
s has been incorporated into the issue price, and as can be easily veried from equation
(2), u
AS
= 0. This makes sense because incorporating perfect information into the price
fully eliminates the informational asymmetry among investors. We show in the Appendix
that u
AS
is decreasing in |
p
0
| which is a measure of the extent to which the pricing
process has ameliorated the informational asymmetry. In the remainder of the paper we
refer to u
AS
as underpricing due to residual adverse selection risk. The term residual
is used because this is adverse selection risk that remains after some information has been
elicited from a set of regular investors, and used to price the issue. We take the issuers
desire to minimize u
AS
as the rationale for the use of a mechanism to elicit information
prior to pricing the issue.
3.2 The Benchmark Mechanism
In this section we determine the benchmark mechanism. This is the optimal mechanism
without when-issued trading. We invoke the Revelation Principle and only consider direct
mechanisms, that is mechanisms in which investors submit reports of their signals. In
order to obtain our results, some of which depend on our assumption that informed
investors have positively, but not perfectly, correlated signals, we need at least two polled
investors. To keep the model as simple as possible we assume that information is elicited
from exactly two investors.
15
We assume that the issuer is able to ascertain that the two
(s = 1). Thus, uninformed investors are more likely to receive allocations if the issue is overpriced than if
it is underpriced. If the issue were priced at its expected value, E[
V |z] = v
0
+
(z/2)(2q 1)w
1 2q(1 q)
. (4)
The issue price can be written: p
I
= E[
V |z] u
ab
, where u
ab
is the expected level of
underpricing, given that one polled investor reported a and the other reported b. A direct
implication of equation (4) is that, if a polled investor misreports her signal, then this
action will change E[
V |z], by an amount w
L
:
w
L
impact of a lie =
(2q 1)w
1 2q(1 q)
< w . (5)
Falsely reporting a negative (positive) signal, instead of positive (negative), will decrease
(increase) E[
V |z] by an amount w
L
. It is important to note that w
L
is the impact on the
expected value, E[
, (6)
= Er
+
N
+ Er
N
+ Er
R
N
(7)
16
See the Appendix for the derivation of (z). In Section 4, the value of
p
may also depend on
information generated by when-issued trading.
17
Because we assume a xed quantity of securities to be issued, maximizing issue proceeds is equivalent
to minimizing underpricing.
10
where Er
+
N
= expected return to a polled investor who sees and reports +
= (1 2q(1 q))u
++
h
++
+ 2q(1 q)u
+
h
+
, (8)
Er
N
= expected return to a polled investor who sees and reports
= (1 2q(1 q))u
+ 2q(1 q)u
+
h
+
, (9)
Er
R
N
= expected return to retail investors (investors not polled)
=
1
2
(1 2q(1 q))u
++
(1 2h
++
) +
1
2
(1 2q(1 q))u
(1 2h
)
+ 2q(1 q)u
+
(1 h
+
h
+
) , (10)
and where h
ab
is the fraction of the oering that is allocated to a polled investor who
reports a while the other reports b. The objective function is minimized by choosing the
values of u
ab
and h
ab
subject to the following constraints.
Participation of polled investors: We assume that polled investors will accept allocations
if and only if securities are not overpriced, conditional on the information that has been
reported in the mechanism:
u
ab
0 u
ab
{u
++
, u
+
, u
} . (PC
N
I)
Incentive compatibility: Investors will truthfully report their information, as long as the
following incentive compatibility constraints are satised:
Er
+
N
(1 2q(1 q))
u
+
+ w
L
h
+
+ 2q(1 q)
+ w
L
, (IC
+
N
)
Er
N
(1 2q(1 q))
u
+
w
L
h
+
+ 2q(1 q)
u
++
w
L
h
++
. (IC
N
)
In writing the incentive compatibility constraints we implicitly assume that a polled in-
vestor will not refuse an allocation, as long as (PC
N
I) is satised.
18
Thus, sending a
false positive report exposes an investor to the risk of receiving an over-priced allocation.
For this reason, (IC
N
) will not be binding. This is one aspect of the mechanism design
problem that may change in the presence of when-issued trading.
Allocation constraints: The issue must be fully allocated, and cannot be over-allocated.
In addition, a minimum fraction of the issue, h
R
(0, 1), must be allocated to retail
18
In Treasury auctions and in some IPO markets investors are legally bound to purchase allocations.
In U.S. IPOs investors are typically not legally bound to purchase allocations, but polled investors and
intermediaries who assist in issuing securities are typically engaged in repeated interactions. There are
thus reputational reasons for not refusing an allocation.
11
investors.
2h
, 2h
++
, h
+
+ h
+
1 h
R
& h
ab
0 . (AC
N
)
Participation of retail investors: In order to ensure sucient retail participation the issue
must be priced to compensate uninformed investors for adverse selection risk:
19
u
++
u
AS
(2), u
+
u
AS
(0), u
u
AS
(2) . (PC
N
R)
u
AS
, introduced in Section 3.1, is the expected underpricing due to adverse selection risk.
We use the notation u
AS
(z) to indicate that this expected underpricing is a function of the
information obtained through the mechanism. The values for u
AS
(0), u
AS
(2) and u
AS
(2)
are stated in the Appendix, where we also show that w
L
/3 > u
AS
(0) > u
AS
(2) > u
AS
(2).
The benchmark mechanism, the optimal mechanism without when-issued trading, is
summarized in the following proposition.
20
Proposition 1. The Benchmark Mechanism. Without when-issued trading the opti-
mal mechanism has the following characteristics:
1. Investors who report positive information receive the largest possible allocation.
Investors who report negative information receive no allocation.
2. Positive expected underpricing is required in each state, due to residual adverse
selection risk. The incentive compatibility constraints (IC) are nonbinding, and so
no further underpricing is needed in order to induce truthful reporting.
3. The expected underpricing is:
Eu
N
= 2q(1 q)u
AS
(0) + (1 2q(1 q)) (u
AS
(2) + u
AS
(2)) /2 (11)
The benchmark mechanism has three key characteristics. First, the allocation policy
in the benchmark mechanism is non-decreasing. That is, more securities are allocated
to investors who report more positive information about the security value. Second, a
direct implication of parts 1 and 2 of Proposition 1 is that a polled investor who has
observed positive information expects to earn strictly positive informational rents, while
19
Polled investors do not face an adverse selection risk, because their allocations are based only on the
reported information, not on any information that may still reside with other investors. For this reason,
the constraint (PC
N
I), requires only nonnegative underpricing.
20
This proposition reproduces results from Maksimovic and Pichler (2006). We present these results
here in proposition form so that the reader can more easily compare them to our results in the following
sections.
12
an investor who has observed negative information expects to earn zero rents. Third,
underpricing in the benchmark mechanism is not determined by the need to pay polled
investors informational rents, but rather by the discount that the uninformed investors
require in order to bear adverse selection risk (as discussed at the end of Section 3.1).
4 Optimal Selling Mechanisms with When-Issued
Trading
We assume from this point forward that when-issued trading is permitted. Permitting
when-issued trading does not, however, ensure that such trading will indeed take place.
Primary markets dier substantially in the incidence of when-issued trading. In Treasury
markets a complete failure of when-issued trading is virtually unheard of, but the trading
sometimes fails in IPO markets. A likely explanation for this dierence between IPOs and
Treasury markets is based on the fact that it is often quite hard to determine the value
of IPO shares based on publicly available information. The issuers of such shares are
often relatively small and unknown rms with only a short track record. When-issued
trading of the shares is therefore easily stied by the presence of insiders poised to prot
from trading with counterparties who only have access to public information.
21
We capture the possibility of when-issued trading failing to open by assuming that such
trading takes place with probability , where [0, 1]. For now, we assume that this
probability is exogenously given.
22
The sequence of events is similar to that illustrated
in Figure 1. This sequence is typical for IPO markets where when-issued trading does
not open until after information has been obtained through a mechanism. When-issued
trading of Treasuries typically does open prior to the auction mechanism, and then con-
tinues after the bidding in the auction has closed. But, as pointed out by Nyborg and
Sundaresan (1996) and Horta csu and Sareen (2005), pre-auction trading is often illiquid
or even unobservable.
23
In addition, we expect that any information that is revealed by
pre-auction trading will be incorporated into the bidders prior expectations. We there-
21
Renneboog and Spaenjers (2008) report that rm size is indeed a signicant determinant of the
incidence of when-issued trading in the Dutch market. Findings of Cornelli, Goldreich and Ljungqvist
(2006) and Dorn (2009) suggest that problems of market failure in the when-issued trading of IPOs are
sometimes overcome due to the presence of overly optimistic traders.
22
In Section 5 we model this probability as an endogenous outcome.
23
Horta csu and Sareen (2005) report that they couldnt observe a single trade in the pre-auction when-
issued market for Canadian treasuries during their sample period in the years 2001 - 2003.
13
fore focus on the when-issued trading that takes place after the mechanism, but before
the securities are issued.
The sequence of events in our model is as follows. First, the issuer elicits information
directly from polled investors (using some type of direct mechanism). After that, publicly
observable when-issued trading opens, or doesnt open. If the trading takes place, then it
fully reveals all privately held information; i.e., the value of s is revealed.
24
4.1 No direct mechanism.
We begin the analysis of this section by dening a second benchmark: the case where the
issue is priced without using a direct mechanism for gathering information.
25
Without a
direct mechanism, the issue is priced based on publicly available information. If when-
issued trading reveals the value of the issue, the price can be set equal to this value.
Otherwise, the issue is priced according to prior information. In the latter case, the issue
must be priced at v
0
u
AS
(0) in order to assure retail participation. Thus, the expected
underpricing is: (1 )u
AS
(0).
4.2 Two types of direct mechanisms
The benchmark mechanism, described in Section 3.2, is comprised of two components:
a pricing rule (u
ab
) and an allocation rule (h
ab
). These two rules map polled investors
reports into prices and allocations. If when-issued trading is permitted, then the selling
mechanism is comprised of three components: a specication of whether information from
when-issued trading may be incorporated into the issue price and allocations, and pricing
and allocation rules that are consistent with this specication. If the issuer species
that the mechanism will be constrained (type C), then any investors who want to buy
securities in the primary market must submit binding bids, and the investors bids fully
determine the pricing and the allocation of the issue. Post-bidding when-issued trading
may reveal information that is not contained in the bids, but such information cannot
24
While the assumption of full revelation is a simplication, it is consistent with evidence about both
Treasury and IPO markets. There is a broad consensus that publicly observable when-issued trading
contributes to price discovery in Treasury markets. A seminal analysis is Nyborg and Sundaresan (1996).
L oer, Panther and Theissen (2005) nd that the when-issued market prices are unbiased predictors of
the prices at which IPO shares trade on the rst day of secondary market trading.
25
If a mechanism is used but the pricing and allocation rules do not provide incentives for participants to
truthfully report their information, then the mechanism is uninformative. From an information gathering
perspective, this is equivalent to having no direct mechanism.
14
be used as an input of the pricing and allocation rules. In this respect, constrained
mechanisms resemble Treasury auctions. If the issuer species that the mechanism will
be unconstrained (type U), then investors bids are not immediately binding. The
pricing and allocation of issues may depend not only on the bids, but also on information
revealed through when-issued trading. Unconstrained mechanisms are thus similar to
what is observed in IPOs.
We rst determine the optimal type U mechanism and the optimal type C mechanism.
We then determine under what conditions each mechanism type is optimal.
4.3 Optimal Unconstrained Mechanisms
4.3.1 Unconstrained mechanisms with certain when-issued trading
In order to develop our intuition we begin by making the simplifying assumption that
publicly observable when-issued trading occurs with probability one, i.e., = 1. This
assumption is relaxed below. We impose it for now in order to analyze the eect of when-
issued trading on the structure of the optimal mechanism of type U, even though it is
clear that, for = 1, the issue should be priced without using a mechanism.
When-issued trading aects the unconstrained mechanism design in a number of ways.
First, polled investors who misreport their private information will be able to prot from
informed trading in the when-issued market.
26
Second, neither the retail investors nor the
polled investors commit to accept allocations until after information has been revealed by
the when-issued market. Thus, the participation constraints specify that there must be
no overpricing conditional on information from both the mechanism and the when-issued
market. Third, any pricing errors that could result from polled investors misreporting will
be corrected by price discovery in the when-issued market. As a consequence, the term w
L
(the impact of a single polled investors lie) does not appear in the incentive compatibility
constraints. Finally, because the polled investors signals are correlated with information
that is revealed through when-issued trading, the issuer can discipline polled investors
by conditioning the mechanism outcome on information from this market. But, the use
of this disciplinary tool is limited by the issuers inability to compel investors to accept
overpriced allocations.
26
We assume that polled investors lose any such trading opportunities if they truthfully report their
private information since there is no way to keep the investors reports a secret. This assumption is
without loss of generality because we could reinterpret a parameter of our model as the expected trading
prots that the investors lose if they truthfully report their private information.
15
The new incentive compatibility constraints are:
Er
+
U1
q
2
u
+
+
h
+
w
+ (1 q)
2
u
+
h
+
c
+ q(1 q)u
w
h
w
+ q(1 q)u
c
h
c
+ (IC
+
U1
)
Er
U1
q
2
u
+
h
+
w
+ (1 q)
2
u
+
+
h
+
c
+ q(1 q)u
++
w
h
++
w
+ q(1 q)u
++
c
h
++
c
+ (IC
U1
)
The above constraints dier from (IC
+
N
) and (IC
N
) in a number of ways. First, we have
added subscripts to the underpricing and allocation variables to indicate information
learned from when-issued trading. A subscript of c (w) indicates that a polled investors
report is correct (wrong), relative to information from when-issued trading. A subscript
of + () is used for the underpricing variable when the polled investors disagree with each
other and the market indicates that + () is the correct report. Second, as discussed
above, the variable w
L
, impact of a lie, no longer appears. Third, represents the
expected trading prots that may be obtained after misreporting. We assume that the
expected trading prot is the same for investors who misreport positive and negative
information. Finally, Er
a
U1
represents the a priori expected rents to a polled investor who
sees and truthfully reports a, given that = 1:
Er
+
U1
= q
2
u
++
c
h
++
c
+ (1 q)
2
u
++
w
h
++
w
+ q(1 q)u
+
+
h
+
c
+ q(1 q)u
+
h
+
w
(12)
Er
U1
= q
2
u
c
h
c
+ (1 q)
2
u
w
h
w
+ q(1 q)u
+
+
h
+
w
+ q(1 q)u
+
h
+
c
(13)
The following proposition describes the optimal incentive-compatible (IC) pricing and
allocation rules. These rules are optimal in the sense that they result in the highest
expected proceeds, given that an unconstrained mechanism type has been specied (U)
and that the polled investors have incentives to truthfully report their private information.
The proposition is written so that it can be contrasted directly with Proposition 1 for the
benchmark mechanism. The intuition for the results is discussed following the proposition.
Proposition 2. The IC Unconstrained mechanism if = 1. If when-issued
trading takes place with probability one, = 1, then the optimal unconstrained incentive-
compatible pricing and allocation rules have the following characteristics:
1. Investors whose reports turn out to be consistent with information revealed by the
when-issued market receive the largest possible allocation, regardless of whether their
information is positive or negative.
Investors whose reports are contradicted by the market receive no allocation.
2. Both incentive compatibility constraints are strictly binding. Rents must be paid in
order to induce truthful reporting, both to polled investors with positive and with
negative information.
16
3. The expected underpricing is:
Eu
U1
=
2q
(2q 1)(1 h
R
)
(14)
The results of Proposition 2 are quite dierent from those of Proposition 1. In the
benchmark mechanism, the incentive compatibility constraints are satised through the
use of a carrot and a stick. The carrot, the possibility of receiving an underpriced
allocation after truthfully reporting positive information, eliminates investors incentives
to shade their bids. The stick, the possibility of receiving an overpriced allocation after
falsely reporting positive information, eliminates investors incentives to pad their bids. If
when-issued trading is certain to reveal the value of the issue, and the mechanism design
is unconstrained, so that it allows information from this market to be incorporated into
the issue price, then the stick disappears. The polled investors have incentives to free-
ride on price discovery in when-issued trading. In addition, the when-issued market
aords trading opportunities to polled investors who misreport. As a result, both (IC
+
U1
)
and (IC
U1
) are strictly binding and incentive compatibility requires the issuer to pay
informational rents both to polled investors who see positive information and to those
who see negative information. The most striking contrast between the two propositions
is in the the allocation rules. In Proposition 2 the investors who receive the largest
allocations are not necessarily those who report the highest valuations. The mechanism
in Proposition 2 is in this way very dierent from a standard auction.
In the following section we expand on Proposition 2 to determine the optimal uncon-
strained mechanism under the more realistic assumption that when-issued trading may
not open: [0, 1].
4.3.2 Unconstrained mechanisms with uncertain when-issued trading
For (0, 1), the optimal unconstrained mechanism must satisfy incentive-compatibility
constraints that are weighted averages (weighted by and 1 ) of the incentive com-
patibility constraints in Section 4.3.1 (where = 1) and in the benchmark case (where
= 0). We denote the resulting incentive compatibility constraints as IC
+
U
and IC
U
.
These constraints, and the participation constraints are stated in the Appendix (in the
proof of Proposition 3).
17
Propositions 1 and 2 indicated that the incentive compatibility constraints are slack in
the absence of when-issued trading ( = 0), and binding if such trading is certain to take
place ( = 1). These results are special cases of the following proposition.
Proposition 3. If the mechanism is unconstrained, then there exist values,
+
and
< 1, and:
1. [0,
+
] (IC
+
U
) is nonbinding, and (
+
, 1] (IC
+
U
) is strictly binding.
2. [0,
] (IC
U
) is nonbinding, and (
, 1] (IC
U
) is strictly binding.
3.
+
=
A
+ A
and
=
B
+ B
(15)
where
= /(1 h
R
), A = 2q(1 q)u
AS
(0) + (1 2q(1 q))u
AS
(2)/2 and
B = q(1 q(1 q))w
L
(2q 1) (qu
AS
(0) + (1 q)u
AS
(2)/2) > A.
The values
+
and
, then investors who have observed negative signals expect zero rents.
3. The expected underpricing depends on the value of :
If [0,
+
], then Eu
U
= (1 )Eu
N
.
If (
+
,
], then Eu
U
= (1 )Eu
N
+
(1 )A > (1 )Eu
N
.
If (
, 1], then Eu
U
= (1 )Eu
N
+
2q
(1)q(A+C)
(2q1)
> (1 )Eu
N
.
where
= /(1 h
R
), A = 2q(1 q)u
AS
(0) + (1 2q(1 q))u
AS
(2)/2 > 0 and
C (1 2q(1 q)) (w
L
u
AS
(0)) + q(1 q)(w
L
u
AS
(2)) .
18
Part 1 of Proposition 4 shows that the optimal allocation policy species allocations
that are conditional on the occurrence and the outcome of price discovery in when-issued
trading. If the trading takes place, then investors are rewarded with an allocation if
their reports turn out to be consistent with information revealed through the trading.
If the trading doesnt take place, then investors are rewarded for reporting positive
signals, like in the benchmark mechanism.
Part 2 of the proposition indicates that investors informational rents depend on the
a priori probability with which when-issued trading takes place. Investors with positive
private information generally receive higher informational rents than those with negative
private information. If
0,
where
= /(1 h
R
) and A = 2q(1 q)u
AS
(0) + (1 2q(1 q))u
AS
(2)/2 > 0.
Comparing the optimal constrained (C) mechanism with the optimal unconstrained
(U) mechanism reveals that the former mechanism type (C) avoids a problem that can
make it costly to obtain truthful reports from the polled investors using an unconstrained
mechanism, i.e. the investors incentive to free-ride on price discovery in the when-issued
market. With a constrained mechanism, the polled investors know that the pricing of the
issue depends solely on their bids. For reasonable parameter values, it is therefore always
incentive compatible for the investors to truthfully report negative private information
about the value of the issue. Since the investors need not be rewarded for reporting
negative signals, the optimal allocation rule is similar to that of a standard auction:
investors who report higher valuations receive larger allocations. In addition, polled in-
vestors earn zero expected informational rents if they have negative information about
the value of the issue.
The unconstrained mechanism type is, however, superior to the constrained type on
another account: polled investors can be motivated to reveal their private information by
giving them allocations if their reports turn out to be consistent with information revealed
27
As can be seen in the proof of the proposition, we impose this restriction so that we can focus on
what we consider to be the most reasonable case, rather than presenting two dierent cases. To get an
intuitive sense of the restriction: If a polled investor misreports and then receives the entire nonretail
allocation and then is able to trade this entire allocation at the expected value that is determined by
the investors lie, then this polled investor will obtain a trading prot of (1 h
R
)w
L
. This is the highest
possible outcome. Any expected trading prot that is consistent with both our model and existing models
of market microstructure will result in expected trading prots that are a fraction of (1 h
R
)w
L
.
20
Mechanism type Probability market opens Expected underpricing
no direct mechanism [0, 1] (1 )u
AS
(0)
unconstrained (U) [0,
+
] (1 )Eu
N
unconstrained (U) (
+
,
] (1 )Eu
N
+
(1 )A
unconstrained (U) (
, 1] (1 )Eu
N
+
2q
(1)q(A+C)
(2q1)
constrained (C) [0, 1] Eu
N
+ max[0,
A]
Table 1: Expected Underpricing for three dierent specications: no direct mechanism,
an unconstrained direct mechanism, and a constrained direct mechanism
through when-issued trading. In the next section, we examine the trade-o between
mechanism types more extensively and derive conditions that describe this trade-o.
4.5 The Optimal Mechanism
We now consider which type of mechanism is overall optimal by comparing the optimal
constrained and the optimal unconstrained mechanisms. Table 1 presents a summary of
the expected underpricing for the two types of mechanisms. Proposition 6 shows that the
optimal choice of mechanism type depends on the probability with which when-issued
trading takes place.
Proposition 6: The optimal direct mechanism.
1. If
, then there exist parameter values such that the optimal constrained direct
mechanism, C, results in strictly higher expected issue proceeds than the optimal
unconstrained direct mechanism, U. In the limit as 1, w
L
/4 <
3w
L
/8 is
a sucient condition such the optimal C-type mechanism results in strictly higher
issue proceeds than the optimal U-type mechanism.
Proposition 6 tells us that if the probability of when-issued trading is low enough,
, then the unconstrained mechanism is unambiguously optimal. That is, the issuer
should employ a mechanism that allows information from the when-issued market to aect
the issue price. If, however, >
is nonbinding; IC
+
may be binding.
2. The optimal mechanism is the optimal unconstrained direct mechanism.
Proposition 7 indicates that the optimal mechanism design and the expected proceeds
in the case with an endogenous probability of market opening are qualitatively the same
as in the case where
0
= prior probability that s = 1
w = constant (See above for
V )
q = probability that
i
= s, i.e., that an informed investor has correct information,
1/2 < q < 1
= fraction of investors who are informed. 0 < < 1/2
=probability that when-issued trading opens
h
R
= minimum fraction of the oering that must be allocated to retail investors
Other variables:
N: used as a subscript to indicate No when-issued trading
T: used as a subscript to indicate when-issued Trading takes place and trading
information is incorporated into price and allocations
= zero if mechanism precludes when-issued trading information from price and
allocations; one, otherwise
p
I
= issue price
p
= probability that s = 1, given all info known by issuer at time of setting price
z = sum of signals reported by polled investors
(z) = probability that s = 1, given z
u
AS
(z) = expected underpricing due to residual adverse selection risk
w
L
= impact of a lie on the expected value of the security
u
ab
= underpricing, given one polled investor reports a and one reports b
h
ab
= fraction allocated to polled investor who reports a when other reports b
u
ab
x
= underpricing, given the polled investors reports ab and the market reveals x
h
ab
x
= allocation to investor who reports a when other reports b & the market reveals x
= expected trading prot for polled investor who misreports (3/8)(1 h
R
)w
L
= /(1 h
R
)
Table 2: Notation
Underpricing due to adverse selection risk.
E[
V |
p
] = v
0
+ (2
p
1)w (16)
27
Informed investor i has observed a signal of s:
i
{1, 1}.
prob{s = 1|
p
,
i
= 1} =
q
p
q
p
+ (1 q)(1
p
)
>
p
,
prob{s = 1|
p
,
i
= 1} =
(1 q)
p
(1 q)
p
+ q(1
p
)
<
p
.
Given these probabilities, an informed investor values the issue as follows:
E[
V |
p
,
i
= 1] = v
0
+
q
p
(1 q)(1
p
)
q
p
+ (1 q)(1
p
)
w > E[
V |
p
] (17)
E[
V |
p
,
i
= 1] = v
0
+
(1 q)
p
q(1
p
)
(1 q)
p
+ q(1
p
)
w < E[
V |
p
] (18)
Investors arrive randomly in the retail market. Allocations are given on a rst-come
rst-served basis until the issue is sold. An investor who participates in the oering
joins the queue for an allocation. If s = 1, then on average a fraction q of the informed
investors will participate; if s = 1, then on average a fraction 1 q will participate.
Table 2 presents the expected value and the expected relative allocations to each group
of investors (informed and uninformed), for each realization of s. The table is written
assuming that p
I
> E[
V |
p
,
i
= 1], so that investors who have observed negative
signals do not participate; this is checked below.
32
Because q > 1/2, the uninformed will
on average receive more securities if the value of these securities is low (s = 1).
Realization of s s = 1 s = 1
Probability of this realization 1
p
p
Expected secondary market value
V v
0
w v
0
+ w
Allocation to informed investors
(1q)
1q
q
1(1q)
Allocation to uninformed investors
1
1q
1
1(1q)
Table 2: Expected Value and Allocations
Uninformed investors will participate in the oering only if their expected return is
nonnegative. When underpricing is minimized, this expected return is zero:
0 = (1
p
) (v
0
w p
I
)
1
1 q
+
p
(v
0
+ w p
I
)
1
1 (1 q)
, (19)
Solving equation (19) for p
I
yields:
p
I
= v
0
+
2
p
1 (
p
+ q 1)
1 ((2
p
1)q + 1
p
)
w. (20)
32
The number of investors who reveal their information through a mechanism is small relative to the
total number of informed investors. Thus, the fraction of informed investors is not aected by information
gathering.
28
The above expression is > E[
V |
p
,
i
= 1], so those who have observed negative signals
do not participate. The expected underpricing due to adverse selection risk is:
u
AS
(
p
) = E[
V |
p
] p
I
=
q 2
p
(1
p
) (2
p
1)
2
q
1 ((2
p
1)q + 1
p
)
w. (21)
Dene the following variable:
u
AS
u
AS
()
w
=
q 2(1 ) (2 1)
2
q
1 ((2 1)q + 1 )
u
AS
=
(2q 1)
= (2q 1)
2(1 2) 2(1 )
2
+ (1 2)
2
q + q
(1 ((2 1)q + 1 ))
2
(22)
The denominator of (22) is strictly positive. The numerator is strictly decreasing in
and strictly positive if = 1/2. Thus, (22) is strictly positive 1/2 =
a) For all
p
1/2, u
AS
is strictly increasing in
p
.
The numerator of (22) is strictly negative if = (1 )/2 + q. (This result can be
obtained by setting q = 1/2 + , where 0 < < 1/2.) Thus, (22) is negative
(1 )/2 + q. In addition,
u
AS
z=0
=
2q 1
2
> u
AS
z=1
=
(2q 1)2q(1 q)
1 ((2q 1)q + 1 q)
=
b) for all
p
q, u
AS
is strictly decreasing in
p
, and u
AS
(
p
) < u
AS
(
0
).
Points a) and b) together imply that, if the issue is priced after obtaining information
that is at least as good as that of one informed investor, then underpricing due to adverse
selection risk will be lower than without the information. And, as more information is
learned, underpricing due to adverse selection risk decreases.
Derivation of (z): We know that
(0) = 1/2 , (1) = q , and (1) = 1 q = 1 (1) .
We can dene (z) as a function of all signals obtained, except is signal, together with
is signal
i
. For z 1, we let
i
= 1:
(z) =
prob{
i
= 1|s = 1}(z 1)
prob{
i
= 1|s = 1}(z 1) + prob{
i
= 1|s = 1}(1 (z 1))
=
q(z 1)
q(z 1) + (1 q)(1 (z 1))
(23)
29
For z 1, we let
i
= 1:
(z) =
prob{
i
= 1|s = 1}(z + 1)
prob{
i
= 1|s = 1}(z + 1) + prob{
i
= 1|s = 1}(1 (z + 1))
=
(1 q)(z + 1)
(1 q)(z + 1) + q(1 (z + 1))
(24)
Using these equations and the above values for (1) and (1), we obtain equation (3).
Underpricing due to residual adverse selection risk. From equations (2) and (3):
u
AS
(0)
w
=
2q 1
2
(25)
u
AS
(2)
w
=
q
2q
2
(1q)
2
(q
2
+(1q)
2
)
2
2q1
q
2
+(1q)
2
2
q
1
2q1
q
2
+(1q)
2
(1q)
2
q
2
+(1q)
2
=
(2q 1)2q
2
(1 q)
2
(q
2
+ (1 q)
2
) (q
2
+ (1 q)
2
(1 3q(1 q)))
(26)
u
AS
(2)
w
=
q
2q
2
(1q)
2
(q
2
+(1q)
2
)
2
2q1
q
2
+(1q)
2
2
q
1 +
2q1
q
2
+(1q)
2
q
2
q
2
+(1q)
2
=
(2q 1)2q
2
(1 q)
2
(q
2
+ (1 q)
2
) (q
2
+ (1 q)
2
q(1 q))
(27)
q > 1/2 = 1 3q(1 q) > q(1 q) = u
AS
(2) > u
AS
(2).
u
AS
(0) is strictly increasing in q. When q is close to 1/2, u
AS
(2)/q and u
AS
(2)/q
are positive; when q is close to one, u
AS
(2)/q and u
AS
(2)/q are negative.
From equations (25) and (5):
u
AS
(0) =
(1 2q(1 q))w
L
<
w
L
3
. (28)
Proof of Proposition 1. The benchmark mechanism. Rearranging the incentive
compatibility constraints, (IC
+
N
) and (IC
N
):
(1 2q(1 q))
u
++
h
++
(w
L
+ u
+
)h
+
+
2q(1 q)
u
+
h
+
(w
L
+ u
)h
0 (29)
(1 2q(1 q))
+ (w
L
u
+
)h
+
+
2q(1 q)
u
+
h
+
+ (w
L
u
++
)h
++
0 (30)
It is optimal to set h
+
= 2h
++
= 1 h
R
, h
+
= 0, and h
= 0.
(PC
N
R) is binding and the IC constraints are nonbinding for all values of z. Thus:
30
u
= u
AS
(2), u
+
= u
AS
(0) and u
++
= u
AS
(2), and the expected underpricing is thus
given by equation (11).
Proof of Proposition 2. Because q > 1 q, it is optimal to set u
ab
h
ab
w
= 0 pairs of
(a, b). The IC constraints can thus be written:
q
qu
++
c
h
++
c
+ (1 q)u
+
+
h
+
c
(1 q)
(1 q)u
+
h
+
c
+ qu
c
h
(31)
q
qu
c
h
c
+ (1 q)u
+
h
+
c
(1 q)
(1 q)u
+
+
h
+
c
+ qu
++
c
h
++
c
(32)
Because > 0 and residual adverse selection risk is zero, the above are strictly binding:
qu
++
c
h
++
c
+ (1 q)u
+
+
h
+
c
= qu
c
h
c
+ (1 q)u
+
h
+
c
= /(2q 1) . (33)
Equation (33) gives the expected rents for an investor who truthfully reports and turns
out to be correct. Thus, the a priori expected rents for an investor who truthfully reports
are as follows, regardless of whether the information is positive or negative:
Er
+
U1
= Er
U1
= q/(2q 1) . (34)
In the optimal mechanism h
++
c
= h
c
= (1h
R
)/2 and h
+
c
= h
+
c
= 1h
R
. Combining
this allocation rule with equation (33) and the result that u
ab
w
= 0, we can calculate the
expected underpricing:
Eu
U1
=
q
2
2
u
++
c
+ u
+ q(1 q)
u
+
+
+ u
+
=
2q
(2q 1)
(35)
where
= /(1 h
R
).
Proof of Proposition 3. [0, 1], R = U, and mechanism is IC.
Each constraint IC
a
U
, a {+, }, is the weighted average of the constraints (IC
a
N
) and
(IC
a
U1
). More specically, the LHS of (IC
+
U
) is given by: Er
+
U
= (1 )Er
+
N
+ Er
+
U1
and the RHS is (1 ) times the RHS of (IC
+
N
) plus times the RHS of (IC
+
U1
). The
LHS of (IC
U
) is given by: Er
U
= (1 )Er
N
+ Er
U1
and the RHS is (1 ) times the
RHS of (IC
N
) plus times the RHS of (IC
U1
).
We rst solve the mechanism design problem as far as we can for a general value of .
We then show the existence of and determine the values of
+
and
.
As in Proposition 2, the issuer will optimally set u
ab
h
ab
w
= 0 pairs of (a, b). We can
thus write the IC constraints by combining equations (29) and (31) to obtain equation
31
(IC
+
U
), and combining equations (30) and (32) to obtain equation (IC
U
):
q
2
u
++
c
h
++
c
(1 q)
2
u
+
h
+
c
+ q(1 q)
u
+
+
h
+
c
u
c
h
+
(1 ) (1 2q(1 q))
u
++
h
++
w
L
+ u
+
h
+
+
2(1 )q(1 q)
u
+
h
+
w
L
+ u
(IC
+
U
)
q
2
u
c
h
c
(1 q)
2
u
+
+
h
+
c
+ q(1 q)
u
+
h
+
c
u
++
c
h
++
c
+
(1 ) (1 2q(1 q))
u
+
w
L
h
+
+
2(1 )q(1 q)
u
+
h
+
u
++
w
L
h
++
(IC
U
)
The participation constraints require that:
u
aa
c
, u
aa
w
, u
+
+
, u
+
0, u
++
u
AS
(2), u
u
AS
(2), u
+
u
AS
(0) (36)
(In pricing regime U participation must be ex post rational. I.e., investors observe all
of the available information and the oer price, then they decide whether to invest.)
The allocation constraints are the same as in the earlier problems. The objective is to
minimize the expected value of underpricing. The optimal value of u
aa
w
, a {+, } is 0,
so the expected underpricing is:
q
2
(u
++
c
+ u
c
)/2 + q(1 q)
u
+
+
+ u
+
+
(1 )
(1 2q(1 q))
u
++
+ u
/2 + 2q(1 q)u
+
(37)
With the problem written as above we can state the following: i) It is optimal to give
the largest possible allocations to investors whose reports are conrmed if the market
opens, and to those who report + if the market doesnt open: 2h
++
c
= 2h
c
= h
+
c
=
h
+
c
= 2h
++
= h
+
= (1 h
R
). And, to award the smallest possible allocation to those
who report if the market doesnt open: h
+
= h
= u
AS
(2).
At this point we dene: U
+
qu
++
c
/2 + (1 q)u
+
+
and U
qu
c
/2 + (1 q)u
+
.
(qU
a
(1 h
R
) is the expected rent received by a polled investor who observes and reports
a, if = 1.) We can now write the problem as follows:
Choose u
++
c
, u
c
, u
+
+
, u
+
, u
++
and u
+
to:
minEu
U
= q
U
+
+ U
+
(1 )
Eu
N
+ (1 2q(1 q))(u
++
u
AS
(2))/2 + 2q(1 q)(u
+
u
AS
(0))
(38)
32
subject to:
u
++
c
, u
c
, u
+
+
, u
+
0, u
++
u
AS
(2), u
+
u
AS
(0) (39)
qU
+
(1 q)U
+
(1 )
(1 2q(1 q)) u
++
/2 + 2q(1 q)u
+
(40)
qU
(1 q)U
+
+
(1 )
(1 2q(1 q))
w
L
u
+
+ q(1 q)
w
L
u
++
(41)
where
= /(1 h
R
). Equation (39) is (PC R), (40) is (IC
+
U
) and (41) is (IC
U
).
We know from Propositions 1 and 2 that if = 0, both (40) and (41) are nonbinding;
and if = 1, both are binding. But, because w
L
u
AS
(0) > 2u
AS
(0) > 2u
AS
(2) and
1 2q(1 q) > 2q(1 q), (40) binds at a lower value of , than does (41).
Suppose that both (40) and (41) ((IC
+
U
) and (IC
U
)) are nonbinding. Then, all of the
constraints in (39) are binding: u
++
= u
AS
(2), u
+
= u
AS
(0), u
++
c
= u
+
+
= u
c
=
u
+
= 0, and U
+
= U
+ (1
+
) (1 2q(1 q)) u
AS
(2)/2 =
+
=
A
+ A
(42)
where A Eu
N
(1 2q(1 q)) u
AS
(2)/2.
If
+
, then (IC
+
U
) is nonbinding; if >
+
, then (IC
+
U
) is strictly binding.
As stated above, if
+
, then (41) is nonbinding.
Suppose now that (40) is binding and (41) is satised with equality, but not strictly
binding. Then U
(1 2q(1 q)) u
++
/2 + 2q(1 q)u
+
(43)
(1 q)U
+
+
(1 )
(1 q(1 q)) w
L
(1 2q(1 q)) u
+
q(1 q)u
++
(44)
To satisfy (43) the issuer must set U
+
, u
++
and/or u
+
strictly above what is required
by (39), the participation constraint.
As long as is low enough so that (41) is strictly nonbinding, then in the optimal mech-
anism these parameters can be set to any values that satisfy equations (43) and (39).
33
(Note that the coecients for these parameters in the objective function (38) are iden-
tical to those in (43).) However, when we take into account constraint (41), then it
becomes optimal to set u
++
and u
+
to their lowest feasible values, so that all rents
are paid by setting a higher value of U
+
. (This is simply because q > 1/2, so that
q/(1 q) > (1 2q(1 q))/(2q(1 q)) > (2q(1 q))/(1 2q(1 q)).)
The constraints (43) and (44) are now written as:
qU
+
=
(1
)A (45)
(1 q)U
+
=
(1
)C (46)
where C (1 2q(1 q)) (w
L
u
AS
(0)) + q(1 q)(w
L
u
AS
(2)).
Subtracting (46) from (45):
U
+
=
(C A) (47)
Putting (47) into (46) and solving for
=
qC + (1 q)A
+ qC + (1 q)A
=
B
+ B
(48)
where B qC + (1 q)A = q(1 q(1 q))w
L
(2q 1) (qu
AS
(0) + (1 q)u
AS
(2)/2).
If
, then (IC
U
) is nonbinding; if >
, then (IC
U
) is binding. We know that
C > A. (Actually C > 2A.) Thus,
>
+
.
Proof of Proposition 4. The proof for part 1 is given above in the proof of Proposition
3. The proof for part 2 follows directly from Proposition 1 and the proof of Proposition
3: Conditioned on the market not opening, those with positive signals expect positive
informational rents and those with negative signals expect zero rents. qU
+
and qU
are the respective rents expected by these investors, conditioned on the market opening.
Weve already shown that U
+
= 0 (> 0) if
+
( >
+
), and U
= 0 if
.
If >
qU
+
(1 q)U
(1 )A (49)
qU
(1 q)U
+
(1 )C (50)
Solving the above:
U
+
=
(2q 1)
(1 )(qA + (1 q)C)
(2q 1)
(51)
U
(2q 1)
(1 )(qC + (1 q)A)
(2q 1)
(52)
34
Because C > A and q > 1 q, U
+
> U
.
The proof for part 3 also follows from the proof of Proposition 3:
If [0,
+
], then neither IC constraint is binding and (PC R) is binding. Thus,
Eu
U
(
+
) = (1 )Eu
N
.
If (
+
,
], then (40) is binding, but (41) is not, and expected underpricing is given
by inserting (43) into (38):
Eu
U
=
(1 )A.
(Note: If =
+
, then
= (1 )A; if >
+
, then
> (1 )A.)
If (
, 1], then both (40) and (41) are binding. Expected underpricing is determined
by setting u
++
= u
AS
(2) and u
+
= u
AS
(0), and by inserting (51) and (52) into (38):
Eu
U
= (1 )Eu
N
+ q(U
+
+ U
)
= (1 )Eu
N
+
2q
(2q 1)
(1 )q(A + C)
(2q 1)
. (53)
From the proof of Proposition 3 we know that if >
, then
> (1)(qC+(1q)A).
It follows (because C > A and q > 1q) that if >
, then
> (1)((1q)C+qA).
Thus, if >
, then 2q
u
++
h
++
(w
L
+ u
+
)h
+
+
2q(1 q)
u
+
h
+
(w
L
+ u
)h
(54)
(1 2q(1 q))
+ (w
L
u
+
)h
+
+
2q(1 q)
u
+
h
+
+ (w
L
u
++
)h
++
(55)
Because of the factor w
L
, it is optimal to set h
+
= 0 and 2h
++
= h
+
= (1 h
R
). It is
also optimal to set u
+
= u
AS
(0). The above constraints can thus be written:
(1 2q(1 q))
u
++
2
+ 2q(1 q)
u
AS
(0)
(w
L
+ u
)h
(1 h
R
)
(56)
(1 2q(1 q))
(1 h
R
)
+ w
L
u
AS
(0)
+ q(1 q)(w
L
u
++
)
(57)
where
= /(1 h
R
). It is clear that (56) will bind before (57). We start by assuming
that (57), (IC
), is nonbinding. (We check this at the end of the proof.) It is thus optimal
35
to set h
= 0 and u
= u
AS
(2). If (56) is nonbinding, then expected underpricing is
Eu
N
, the same as in the benchmark case. If (56) is binding, then
u
++
=
2
1 2q(1 q)
2q(1 q)u
AS
(0)
. (58)
The expected underpricing is thus:
Eu
C
= max
Eu
N
,
+ (1 2q(1 q)) u
AS
(2)/2
(59)
= Eu
N
+ max
0,
(60)
where A is dened in Proposition 3.
As a nal step we check that (57) is nonbinding. Inserting (58) into (57):
w
L
, (61) can be written:
w
L
(1 2q(1 q))
(62)
The RHS of (62) is > 3/8. (This can be seen by allowing q to go to its lower limit of 1/2.)
Thus, (3/8)(1 h
R
)w
L
is sucient to ensure that (57) is nonbinding.
Proof of Proposition 6. This proposition follows from Propositions 4 and 5 (as sum-
marized in Table 1), and:
Part 1: Eu
C
Eu
N
A +
> (1 )(Eu
N
A) +
.
Part 2: From the proof of Proposition 4, if >
, then 2q
.
From equations (25) to (28), we know that w
L
> 3u
AS
(0) and u
AS
(0) > u
AS
(2) >
u
AS
(2). Thus,
> w
L
/4 (and
3w
L
/8, as in Proposition 5) is sucient so that, as
1, Eu
C
+ u
AS
(2)/2.
(2q/(2q 1))
u
AS
(2)/2 > 0 for
> w
L
/4.
Thus, w
L
/4 <
3w
L
/8 is sucient such that as 1, Eu
C
< Eu
U
.
Proof of Corollary 1. Eu
N
= expected underpricing with no when-issued trading
> (1 )Eu
N
. But,
(1 )A > 0.
Proof of Proposition 7. The market opens if the mechanism is ++ or , but doesnt
if the outcome is +. Thus, in the IC constraints for pricing regime U, w
L
appears only
36
in the outcome +:
Er
+
= q
2
u
++
c
h
++
c
+ (1 q)
2
u
++
w
h
++
w
+ 2q(1 q)u
+
h
+
(63)
Er
= q
2
u
c
h
c
+ (1 q)
2
u
w
h
w
+ 2q(1 q)u
+
h
+
(64)
Er
+
q
2
+ (1 q)
2
u
+
+ w
L
h
+
+
q(1 q)
c
h
c
+ u
w
h
+ 2q(1 q)
1
(IC
+
)
Er
q
2
+ (1 q)
2
u
+
w
L
h
+
+
q(1 q)
u
++
c
h
++
c
+ u
++
w
h
++
w
+ 2q(1 q)
1
(IC
)
Note on expected trading prots,
1
: Suppose that polled investor i lies and the market
still opens. This means that polled investor j reported a signal that agrees with is report
and thus disagrees with is actual signal. Investor i does have private information that she
can trade on, but this information is arguably of lower quality that in the case without
endogenous market opening. We can assume that 0 <
1
< .
As in the earlier proofs, it is optimal to set u
w
= h
w
= 0 and h
+
= 0. We thus write
the problem as follows: The objective is to minimize:
Eu = q
2
(u
++
c
+ u
c
)/2 + (1 q)
2
u
++
w
/2 + 2q(1 q)u
+
(65)
Subject to the following IC constraints:
q
2
u
++
c
h
++
c
+ (1 q)
2
u
++
w
h
++
w
+ 2q(1 q)u
+
h
+
q(1 q)u
c
h
c
2q(1 q)
1
(66)
q
2
u
c
h
q
2
+ (1 q)
2
u
+
w
L
h
+
q(1 q)
u
++
c
h
++
c
+ u
++
w
h
++
w
2q(1 q)
1
(67)
and the following participation constraints:
u
++
c
, u
++
w
, u
c
0, u
+
u
AS
(0) (68)
The allocation constraints are the same as in the earlier problems.
Because q > 1/2, the optimal solution calls for the maximum feasible allocation to polled
investors whose reports are veried when the market does open: 2h
++
c
= 2h
c
= 1 h
R
,
and the minimum allocation those whose reports are contradicted: h
++
w
= 0.
37
Part 1: Either (66) and (67) are both nonbinding, or (66) is binding and (67) is non-
binding, or both are binding. For the moment well assume that (67) is nonbinding;
well check this below. It is thus optimal to set u
+
to its lowest feasible value of
u
AS
(0). From equation (28) we know that u
AS
(0) < w
L
/3. Thus, it is optimal to
set h
+
to the largest feasible amount: h
+
= 1 h
R
, and to set u
c
= 0 and
qu
++
c
/2 = max
h
2(1 q)
1
u
AS
(0)
, 0
i
. This results in the following expected un-
derpricing:
Eu
U
= 2q(1 q) max
h
u
AS
(0),
1
i
. (69)
We now need to check if (67) is nonbinding. We know that (67) can only bind if (66) is
also binding. Thus, necessary and sucient for (??) to be nonbinding is:
(1 2q(1 q)) (w
L
u
AS
(0)) 2(1 q)
2
1
u
AS
(0)
2q(1 q)
1
=
(1 2q(1 q)) w
L
(2q 1)u
AS
(0) 2(1 q)
1
(70)
As stated above, u
AS
(0) < w
L
/3. So sucient for (70) is:
1 2q(1 q)
(2q 1)
3
w
L
2(1 q)
1
(71)
Keeping in mind that q > 1/2, it is easy to show that
1
w
L
/2 is sucient for (71).
Thus, for all reasonable parameter values, (67) is nonbinding.
Part 2: We now consider pricing regime C. This problem is identical to that of Proposition
5, except that after a lie the market opens with probability 2q(1 q). Following from
equation (60):
Eu
C
= Eu
N
+ max
0, 2q(1 q)
1
A
(72)
where A is dened in Proposition 3.
Eu
N
> 2q(1 q)u
AS
and A < Eu
N
, so Eu
U
< Eu
C
.
38
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