Trends and Implications of Climate Change For National and International Security

Report of the
Defense Science Board

Task Force on
Trends and Implications
of Climate Change for
National and
International Security

October 2011
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This iepoit is a piouuct of the Befense Science Boaiu (BSB).
The BSB is a Feueial Auvisoiy Committee establisheu to pioviue inuepenuent auvice
to the Secietaiy of Befense. Statements, opinions, conclusions, anu
iecommenuations in this iepoit uo not necessaiily iepiesent the official position of
the Bepaitment of Befense (B0B). The Befense Science Boaiu Task Foice on Tienus
anu Implications of Climate Change foi National anu Inteinational Secuiity
completeu its infoimation-gatheiing in Nay 2u11. The iepoit was cleaieu foi open
publication by the B0B 0ffice of Secuiity Review on 4 August 2u11.
This iepoit is unclassifieu anu cleaieu foi public ielease.
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
3140 DEFENSE PENTAGON
WASHINGTON, DC 203013140

October 4, 2011

MEMORANDUM FOR UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR ACQUISITION,
TECHNOLOGY AND LOGISTICS

SUBJ ECT: Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of
Climate Change on National and International Security

I am pleased to forward the final report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on
Trends and Implications of Climate Change on National and International Security. The report
offers important considerations for the Department of Defense related to this subject.

The task force examined the implications of climate change from a global perspective,
with a special focus on the African continent, and makes recommendations that can improve the
U.S. approach to addressing the many challenges of climate change. First, they identified a need
for a strong climate information system database, managed by the Department of Defense.
Second, the task force recommends a whole of government approach to mitigating the effects of
climate change and highlights the importance of engaging with international leaders in
identifying global solutions.

Climate change will only grow in concern for the United States and its security interests.
This report offers guidance to the Department of Defense on how to become a leader in
mitigating and adapting to its growing effects.

I endorse all of the study recommendations and urge you to adopt them into your
operations.

Dr. Paul G. Kaminski
Chairman

DEFENSE SCIENCE
BOARD
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
WASHINGTON, DC 203013140

MEMORANDUM TO THE CHAIRMAN, DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD

SUBJ ECT: Final Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and
Implications of Climate Change on National and International Security

Changes in climate patterns and their impact on the physical environment can create
profound effects on populations in parts of the world and present new challenges to
global security and stability. Failure to anticipate and mitigate these changes increases the
threat of more failed states with the instabilities and potential for conflict inherent in such
failures.

Because of the increasing importance of climate change on US security, the Defense
Science Board was charged with examining the need to adapt, manage, and mitigate the
consequences of climate change.

This report begins with an overview of the impacts of climate change over recent decades
while recognizing uncertainty about the pace of future changes. It examines the political
consequences of climate change as it relates to national and international security, with
special attention to the African continent due to the vulnerability of African nations with
high potential to intersect with United States national interests. Within this context, the
study examined the roles of the Department of Defense and the national security
community writ large in responding to effects of climate change in both the United States
and in key areas of the globe.

The deliberations of the task force identified the urgent need for clear roles and policies
throughout the US government addressing the consequences of climate change and
produced a set of recommendations on how the US government can manage the near-
term effects on populations and the longer-term need for adaptation that impacts US and
international security interests. The recommendations include specific roles for the
Department of Defense in helping both the United States and U.S. Africa Command
address these challenges. The recommendations fall into five main areas:

The need for developing a robust climate information system
Instituting water security as a core element of DOD strategy
Roles of the national security community, including the intelligence community,
the Department of State, and the White House
DEFENSE SCIENCE
BOARD

Guidance and DOD organization to address the full range of international climate
change-related issues and their impact on the evolution of DODs missions
Combatant command roles, responsibilities, and capacities.

The report emphasizes that the United States cannot enter into an open-ended
commitment to dealing with the need to address the near term consequences of climate
change or the longer term need for adapting to the change. The United States can provide
needed expertise, leadership, and some level of resources where it is in the national
interest to do so. To be effective, Department of Defense actions must be part of a
comprehensive multi-department approach and in coordination with international efforts.

Gen. Larry Welch Dr. William Howard
Co-Chair Co-Chair

TABLE OF CONTENTS I v

Table of Contents
Executive Summary ..................................................................................................... vii
Cbapter 1. Current Ubservation, Model, and Climate Pro|ection
Capabilities ........................................................................................................................ 1
Climate Pieuiction, Foiecast, anu Piojection Nethous ............................................................... 1
Climate Nouels .......................................................................................................................................... 1S
Cbapter 2. Current Climate Cbange Situation and Trends ............................. 22
ulobal Climate Change Tienus ........................................................................................................... 22
Cuiient Tienus anu Piojections foi Afiica ................................................................................... 44
Cbapter 3. Potential Consequences of Climate Cbange ................................... 49
Impacts of Climate Change on Watei .............................................................................................. S1
Tiansbounuaiy Issues ........................................................................................................................... S8
Consequences foi National Secuiity ................................................................................................ 62
Auuiessing Climate Change Effects on Afiican Populations ................................................. 74
Cbapter 4. Roles of tbe National Security Community ..................................... 7
Stiategic Concepts foi Auuiessing the Challenges .................................................................... 76
Whole of uoveinment ............................................................................................................................ 8S
Cbapter 5. Role of tbe Department of Defense ...................................................... 89
uuiuance Shaping Bepaitment of Befense Effoits anu Activities ....................................... 89
Combatant Commanu Roles, Responsibilities, anu Capacity ................................................ 97
Appendix A. Climate Information System Needs ............................................. 101
Climate Change Risk Nanagement ................................................................................................ 1u1
Climate Infoimation Systems .......................................................................................................... 1u7
Climate Bata Recoiu Piouuction .................................................................................................... 11S
0veiaiching Baiiieis foi Climate Infoimation Systems ...................................................... 119
Summaiy ................................................................................................................................................... 128
Appendix B. Special Topics ..................................................................................... 130
Tipping Points ........................................................................................................................................ 1Su
ueoengineeiing ...................................................................................................................................... 1SS
Terms of Reference ................................................................................................... 139
Task Force Membersbip .......................................................................................... 143
Presentations to tbe Task Force ........................................................................... 145
Clossary ......................................................................................................................... 149

v i I

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I v i i
xecutive Summary

This iepoit uesciibes obseivable climate change anu its consequences.
It uoes not attempt to auuiess the complex anu contioveisial set of
causes, noi uoes it offei iecommenuations on the possibility of changing
the pace oi scope of climate change. Insteau, the focus is on the neeu to
manage consequences. To that enu, this iepoit uesciibes eviuence of
impacts ovei iecent uecaues while iecognizing unceitainty about the
pace of futuie changes. It uiscusses the shoitfalls in climate infoimation,
climate science, anu climate mouels anu the iesulting scope of the
unceitainties in piojections. At the same time, it pioviues compelling
eviuence that climate impacts aie obseivable, measuiable, ieal, anu
having both neai anu long-teim consequences. It iecognizes that changes
alieauy unueiway aie having, anu will continue to have, majoi
consequences foi the political, economic, anu geogiaphic woilu as we
know it. This iepoit pioviues a set of iecommenuations on appioaches
to auaptation anu uealing with the neai-teim effects on populations that
impact 0S anu inteinational secuiity inteiests.
While the effects of climate change aie uneven anu subject to a
complex set of influences, some long-teim tienus seem cleai. Foi example,
to the extent that gieenhouse gases aie causing lanu anu sea suiface
waiming, the long life of some gieenhouse gases in the atmospheie mean
that effects will continue to inciease anu will be long lasting, even with no
fuithei auuition to the concentiation of gieenhouse gases (e.g., watei
vapoi (B20), caibon uioxiue (C02), nitious oxiue (N20), methane (CB4),
anu ozone (0S)). Bence, this is a challenge that cannot be "solveu". Insteau,
it must be manageu foi the long-teim. This iepoit auuiesses the neeu anu
piospects foi appioaches to auuiess the neai-teim impact on human
populations anu longei-teim auaptation to climate change. The impact on
human populations, neai- anu long-teim, tianslates to impact on national
anu inteinational secuiity.
Cycles of climate change aie not new to the planet. But, an impoitant
uiffeience touay is that effects aie exaceibateu by the incieaseu uensity of
populations, paiticulaily in those aieas most vulneiable to climate change.

v i i i I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The effects can be fuithei exaceibateu by the natuie of the human
iesponse oi the lack of iesponse.
While auaptation appioaches must covei a wiue spectium of effects anu
consequences, the challenges associateu with climate change geneially fall
into thiee inteiielateu classes of neeus each with seveial subcomponents:
Population suppoit system iesiliency
Watei anu foou secuiity
Bealth
Eneigy
Buman secuiity
Population uislocation
Aimeu conflict
Political continuity
Continuity of goveinance
Economic viability
Although iecent uata uemonstiate an acceleiating iate of climate
change, the unceitainties about continueu changes anu populations'
capabilities to aujust to those changes have leu this iepoit to a heuge
stiategy that iecognizes the wiue iange of potential scenaiios about the
scope anu iate of change. It focuses on climate ielateu actions that will be
beneficial to national anu inteinational secuiity, iegaiuless of the iate of
climate change. This iepoit places paiticulaily stiong emphasis on the
neeu foi piogiams anu activities that pioviue bettei anu moie cieuible
infoimation to uecision makeis.
Climate Ubservation, Modeling, and
Pro|ection Needs
This iepoit uses uata anu piojections fiom a wiue vaiiety of souices to
uiscuss tienus anu consequences. While this uata comes fiom cieuible
souices, climate infoimation systems anu climate moueling fiuelity leave
ioom foi wiue vaiiances in piojections. Bence, while the histoiical anu iecent
tienus seem cleai, anu consequences aie visible in many paits of the woilu
touay, piojections foi futuie iates of change anu impacts aie fai less cleai.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I i x
Becision-making suppoit uemanus a iesponsive, compiehensive, anu
infoimative climate infoimation system. The system will neeu to incluue
extensive, cieuible iepoiting anu bettei science to pieuict the long-teim
implications of impacts anu uemanu foi auaptability. Piogiess towaius
piouucing such a system will iequiie a systematic effoit to uefine
iequiiements, aichitectuie, anu implementation plans.
Cuiiently no coheient, integiateu climate infoimation system capable of
geneiating ieliable, sustaineu, anu actionable climate uata anu piojections
exists. Touay's climate obseivations anu mouels exist only as a loose
feueiation of piogiams at many goveinment agencies, acauemia, inuustiy,
anu nongoveinmental oiganizations (Nu0s). While some of these assets aie
opeiational systems, the majoiity of obseivational assets anu many of the
moueling assets, aie intenueu piimaiily foi exploiatoiy science iathei than
foi suppoiting opeiational, long-teim climate assessments. Nany
obseivations aie intenueu to help impiove basic climate piocess
unueistanuing, such as closing global-scale eneigy, caibon, anu watei
buugets. They uo not offei the space anu time iesolution, completeness, oi
accuiacy to suppoit neeueu impiovements in, oi valiuation of, iegional
climate mouels, paiticulaily in ueveloping countiies.
The plethoia of climate mouels piesent theii own iisk management
challenges. Some of the mouels puipoit to pioviue highly accuiate, long-
teim pieuictions (foity to one hunuieu yeais). Foi these pieuictions, theie
is a neeu foi valiuation anu veiification stanuaius. Also neeueu aie cleai
unceitainty bounus anu attention to the unpieuictable vaiiables that
impact climate in the neai-teim. Few of the mouels puipoit to pioviue
accuiate pieuictions that covei the planning time fiame typical of most
goveinment activity.
The obseivational systems that pioviue the neeueu climate uata aie
ueployeu in the foui tiauitional physical uomainslanu, sea, aii, anu
space. Space-baseu systems that aie funueu, uevelopeu, ueployeu, anu
opeiateu by multiple agencies will play a majoi iole because they pioviue
the ieal-time, continuous obseivational uata iequiieu to monitoi changes
in the climate system. uiven the neeu foi compiehensive global uata to
unueistanu cuiient conuitions anu make bettei pieuictions about futuie
changes, theie is a neeu foi a compiehensive appioach to space-baseu
systems anu systems opeiating in othei uomains.

x I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

While this iepoit appioaches climate change fiom a global
peispective, it places special emphasis on Afiica. The combination of
existing climate change anu the vulneiability of Afiican nations to such
change waiiants special attention. Afiican vulneiabilities aie the iesult of
wiuespieau subsistence faiming, fiagile goveinance, economic shoitfalls,
ethnic tensions, anu othei factois.
Neithei the neeus of the Bepaitment of Befense (B0B) foi climate
infoimation systems anu assessment piocesses, noi gaps ielative to
cuiient capabilities anu planneu futuie capabilities have been iigoiously
stuuieu to uate. The 0S goveinment neeus a scientifically iobust,
sustaineu, anu actionable climate infoimation system that auuiesses these
anu othei issues. The uetails on the neeus of such a system, anu key
baiiieis to its establishment aie uesciibeu in Appenuix A of this iepoit.

This iepoit auuiesses obseiveu tienus anu some pieuictions baseu on
these tienus. It uoes not attempt to auuiess the causes of climate change.
The obseivable tienus ovei multiple uecaues incluue:
Incieasing lanu anu sea suiface tempeiatuies
Changing ocean tempeiatuie
Changing ocean chemistiy (aciuity anu salinity-impact on
ecosystems anu ciiculation)
Beclining mass of uieenlanu anu Antaictic ice sheets
Beclining glacieis anu snow covei
Becieasing anu thinning Aictic sea ice
Noie fiequent anu longei uioughts
Incieaseu fiequency of heavy piecipitation events, floouing anu
lanusliues
Incieaseu cyclone intensity
Rising sea level
Theie is a complex set of factois influencing atmospheiic ciiculation,
cyclone activity anu othei phenomena impacting the climate that aie not
well unueistoou. The changes anu consequences will piesent both neai anu
long-teim challenges. Some gieenhouse gases aie long-liveu. Even with no
auuition of these gases to cuiient levels, it will iequiie hunuieus of yeais to

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I x i
see significant ieuuctions in the level in the atmospheie. Cuiient estimates
aie that if all of the measuies cuiiently iecommenueu to ieuuce emissions
fiom human activity aie implementeu, the pieuicteu tempeiatuie iise will
vaiy fiom a minimum of 2C to as much as 7C by the enu of the 21
st

centuiy. A iise of moie than 2C is likely to have seiious consequences foi
the human habitat. Cuiient piojections explicitly excluue feeuback cycles,
such as those involving the ielease of methane anu nitious oxiue which have
the potential to fuithei acceleiate suiface waiming.

The long-teim tienus in the ielease of the vaiiety of gieenhouse gases
into the atmospheie aie complex anu contioveisial. Fuithei, the piospects
foi significantly changing those tienus aie equally complex anu
contioveisial but aie not cential to the puipose of this iepoit.
Climate change is likely to have the gieatest impact on secuiity
thiough its inuiiect effects on conflict anu vulneiability. Nany ueveloping
countiies aie unable to pioviue basic seivices anu impiovements, much
less cope with iepeateu, suuuen onset shocks anu accumulating, slow
onset stiesses. These effects span the spectium fiom the basic necessities
of livelihoou to social conflict, incluuing piotests, stiikes, iiots, intei-
communal violence, anu conflict between nations. Climate change is moie
likely to be an exaceibating factoi foi failuie to meet basic human neeus
anu foi social conflict, iathei than the ioot cause. Climate change is
alieauy intensifying enviionmental anu iesouice pioblems that
communities aie facing. In iecent uecaues, social conflict has been
paiticulaily pievalent in Afiica. Accoiuing to the Climate Change anu
Afiican Political Stability (CCAPS) piogiam at the Stiauss Centei, uuiing
2uuu-2uu8, ovei twenty thousanu ueaths weie iecoiueu in Afiica uuiing
violent, politically uestabilizing episoues outsiue of insuigencies anu civil
wais.
1
The Bepaitment of Befense anu the combatant commanueis
iecognize these issues, anu to vaiying uegiees, have establisheu initiatives

1. Stiauss Centei's piogiam on Climate Change anu Afiican Political Stability Policy
Biief. Febiuaiy 2u11. Page S. Accesseu at: http:ccaps.stiausscentei.oigsystem
ieseaich_itemspufs4Soiiginal.puf.1299S98S61. This mateiial is baseu upon woik
suppoiteu by, oi in pait by, the 0S Aimy Reseaich Laboiatoiy anu the 0S Aimy
Reseaich 0ffice.

x i i I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

that incoipoiate enviionmental secuiity anu uisastei piepaieuness into
theii secuiity coopeiation piogiams.
The single gieatest uiiect uiivei of impact on the human habitat is
wateitoo much oi too little. Watei anu watei management aie key
factois to foou, health, eneigy, anu economic uevelopment. Regional
vaiiability in iainfall is an unueilying cause, but theie is a iange of
exaceibating factois that aie both cause anu effect, e.g., population
migiation, agiicultuial methous that aie no longei sustainable, lack of
sanitation anu the effect on health anu piouuctivity. Population incieases
uemanu an inciease in agiicultuial piouuctivity. At the same time, the
combination of climate change, unsuitable agiicultuie piactices, pooi
management of fisheiies, anu lack of uevelopment anu management of
watei iesouices, paiticulaily in Afiica, aie obstacles to the neeueu
piogiess. 0vei the past half centuiy, the ienewable watei iesouice pei
capita in Afiica has uecieaseu by a factoi of thiee.
Watei management is essential to sustaining populations. Eneigy anu
watei aie also essential to economic piogiess. Bowevei, a lack of
economic iesouices is a foimiuable obstacle to watei management. Foi
example, in Afiica, 9S peicent of agiicultuie is iain-feu with little oi no
capability foi stoiing oi tianspoiting watei to ueal with the vaiiability in
iainfall. Systems to stoie anu tianspoit watei aie a featuie of wealthiei
nations. Fuithei, given that iivei basins encompass multiple nations, the
mechanisms to manage watei acioss a viable aiea can, in themselves,
cause conflict anu population migiation.
Roles of tbe National Security Community
Climate change has the potential foi significant impacts on all thiee of
the basic elements impoitant to national anu inteinational secuiity-
uefense, uiplomacy, anu economics. Bealing with these impacts by
mitigating the effects on populations anu auapting to change will uemanu
the attention of a bioau spectium of agencies in the national goveinment.
This will incluue the Bepaitment of Befense, in suppoit of leau 0S
goveinment agencies. While theie will be uiiect effects on the 0niteu States
fiom aspects of climate change to incluue sea level iise anu uiamatic
changes in weathei patteins, the most immeuiate effects with the highest
potential foi instability will come fiom the most vulneiable iegions of the

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I x i i i
woilu wheie the 0niteu States obtains vital fuel anu stiategic mineial
impoits anu combats teiioiism. To ueal with these issues, the Bepaitment
of Befense, the Bepaitment of State, anu the 0niteu States Agency foi
Inteinational Bevelopment (0SAIB) will be paiticulaily challengeu.
The 0niteu States has neithei the iesouices noi the influence foi an
open-enueu commitment to auuiessing the woilu's challenges ielateu to
the consequences of climate change. The 0niteu States uoes have a vital
inteiest in piomoting stability in aieas of stiategic inteiest. A key to
success will be extensive auvanceu planning anu collaboiation with otheis
most influenceu by the impacts. Neai-teim woik to ueal with the immeuiate
basic neeus of populations will uemanu a multiagency anu multinational
iesponse. Lasting piogiess will come fiom longei-teim auaptation to
climate change. Auaptation will inevitably incluue moie effective watei
management, population migiation, changes in agiicultuial piactices, anu
appioaches to uealing with hyuiometeoiological uisasteis iesulting fiom
extieme changes in weathei patteins. The effectiveness of auaptation will
have significant national anu inteinational secuiity implications.
The most extieme effects will be in aieas with limiteu expeitise anu
financial iesouices. The 0niteu States will neeu to collaboiate with the
political, economic, anu militaiy leaueiship in these iegions to uevelop the
neeueu expeitise in civil engineeiing, hyuiology, eneigy, agiicultuie, lanu
use, anu infiastiuctuie planning. The long-teim stability of these iegions
will uepenu on piogiess in all of these activities, even with no fuithei
climate change.
The 0niteu States has a long histoiy of effective iesponse to uisasteis
with both the capability anu commitment to iesponu quickly anu
effectively, often incluuing a significant iole foi the militaiy, anu in
paiticulai the National uuaiu, in suppoit of civil authoiities. The 0S also
has a histoiy of successfully uealing with the neeu to auapt with a long-
teim focus. Examples incluue one hunuieu yeais of the Agiicultuial
Extension Piogiam that leu a faim ievolution anu the Public Bealth
Seivice that fosteieu changes in sanitation anu foou anu watei piocessing
that viitually eiauicateu a set of uebilitating chiluhoou uiseases. Similaily,
the Aimy Coips of Engineeis anu the Buieau of Reclamation have uealt
effectively with watei tianspoitation neeus anu floou contiol. This kinu of

x i v I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

sustaineu attention will be iequiieu to ueal with neai-teim neeus anu
auaptation to climate change.
Theie is existing stiuctuie anu activity acioss the whole of goveinment
that can pioviue much neeueu expeitise. A management anu coopeiation
stiuctuie is neeueu to focus incieaseu attention to assisting vulneiable
iegions in auapting to climate change. Examples of existing activities incluue:
0niteu States ulobal Change Reseaich Piogiam
Climate Change Auaptation Inteiagency Task Foice
Bepaitment of State Special Envoy foi Climate Change
Bepaitment of State Regional Enviionmental Bub Piogiam
B0B Enviionmental Inteinational Coopeiation Piogiam
B0B Nineiva Initiative: The Climate Change anu Afiican Political
Stability piogiam
Cential Intelligence Agency Centei foi Climate Change
Bepaitment of Agiicultuie Foieign Agiicultuial Seivice
Enviionmental Piotection Agency Climate Piogiam 0ffice
National 0ceanic anu Atmospheiic Auministiation Tsunami
Resilient Communities concept woik
ueogiaphic combatant commanueis theatei secuiity coopeiation
plans, suppoiteu by enviionmental secuiity engagement activities
0niteu States ueological Suivey
Nilitaiy suppoit foi civil authoiity activities with vaiious
paitneiships with 0SAIB, the 0S ueological Society, Enviionmental
Piotection Agency, anu the Bepaitment of the Inteiioi
0niteu States Pacific Commanu Centei of Excellence foi Bisastei
Nanagement anu Bumanitaiian Assistance
0S Buieau of Reclamation
Bepaitment of Befense Stiategic Enviionmental Reseaich anu
Bevelopment Piogiam
Bepaitment of Befense, 0ffice of Naval Reseaich Nultiuisciplinaiy
0niveisity Reseaich Initiative on socioeconomic-political uiiven
migiatoiy iesponse of populations affecteu by iising sea levels
As suggesteu eailiei, while these activities aie impoitant, theii
potential will be significantly enhanceu with a stiuctuie anu piocess foi

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I x v
cooiuination to moie effectively leveiage the effoits to auuiess global
pioblems. These effoits neeu to incluue bettei insights into what othei
countiies anu inteinational oiganizations aie uoing.
Role of tbe Department of Defense
The Bepaitment of Befense will inevitably be a pait of appioaches to
auapt anu iesponu to climate changes in both the 0niteu States anu in key
aieas of the globe. Builuing iegional capabilities anu alliances to cieate
climate change iesilience will be an impoitant contiibution to iegional
stability. To be effective, B0B activities will neeu to be pait of a
compiehensive multi-uepaitment effoit anu in cooiuination with
inteinational effoits. B0B will play an impoitant iole in uealing with the
potential foi aimeu conflict uiiven by climate-uiiven population migiation.
Theie aie existing examples of the potential foi conflict geneiateu by
uiought inuuceu changes in faiming anu giazing piactices in the Baifui
iegion of Suuan, the maigins of the Sahel, anu southein Afiica. The most
effective influence of climate-ielateu secuiity issues will come fiom
attention well befoie the situation ueteiioiates to the conflict stage.
The Bepaitment of Befense has uemonstiateu capabilities to iesponu to
natuial uisasteis. Nuch of this expeiience is applicable to uealing with the
neai-teim effects of climate change. Still, theie is a majoi uiffeience. The
tiauitional objective of uisastei ielief is a ietuin, as quickly anu as piactical,
to the conuition of life as it existeu befoie the uisastei. In the case of climate
change, theie will be no ietuin to the pieexisting life's conuition. Insteau,
neai-teim solutions neeu to be on the path to auaptation. B0B expeiience
anu capabilities incluue sustaineu attention to laige-scale, long-teim
challenges. The Bepaitment is fiequently calleu on to seive that puipose.
B0B ioutinely conuucts contingency planning acioss a wiue spectium anu
executes its plans in coopeiation with othei uepaitments. The objective in
Afiica anu elsewheie shoulu continue to be sustainable political stability
wheie civilian goveinments, suppoiteu by uefense coopeiation among
militaiies capable of suppoiting civil authoiity, piomote iesilience to the
effects of climate change. The bulk of effoit anu influence must come fiom
the affecteu iegion. Still, the Bepaitment can play an impoitant iole by
pioviuing climate change uata anu waining, anu can help foimulate
piogiams to assist foieign militaiies to unueistanu the effects of climate
change on theii foice stiuctuie, installations, anu theii countiy's secuiity

x vi I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

situation; anu, tiaining countiies on how to builu theii capacity to pioviue
effective mitigation anu auaptation in suppoit of civil authoiity.
Summary of Recommendations
RECUMMENDATIUNS UN THE CLIMATE INFURMATIUN AND MUDELINC NEEDS
The Piesiuent's 0ffice of Science anu Technology Policy shoulu expanu on
the Rounutable foi Climate Infoimation Seivices to:
Befine iequiiements foi infoimation systems, catalog existing
iesouices ielevant to those iequiiements, iuentify gaps, anu
piouuce a conceptual ioaumap foi auuiessing those gaps.
Iuentify obstacles to sustaineu availability of climate infoimation
with inteinational scope.
Befine an opeiational fiamewoik foi sustaineu tianslation of
climate uata iecoius anu othei geophysical infoimation into
societal benefit metiics.
Iuentify appioaches anu mechanisms foi pioviuing sustaineu,
timely, anu actionable synthesis assessments focuseu on
ueveloping iegions anu locales beyonu the cuiient 0S focus,
incluuing options foi giowing in-countiy capacity.
The Auministiatoi of the National 0ceanic anu Atmospheiic Auministiation
shoulu:
Woik with the National Aeionautics anu Space Auministiation to
conuuct a ieneweu stuuy of options foi incieasing the availability
of low-cost, high-ieliability launch vehicles foi civil science
satellites ciitical foi climate obseivations.
Establish a mechanism foi fiequent ieassessment (annual vs.
uecaual) of obseivational neeus iesponsive to changing scientific
unueistanuing anu impacts uue to failuies oi funuing, incluuing an
evaluation of impacts of such uevelopments to the opeiational
neeus of the B0B.
The Piesiuent's 0ffice of Science anu Technology Policy shoulu woik with
B0B, Bepaitment of State, anu 0SAIB to iuentify piioiities foi opeiational
(uistinct fiom ieseaich) climate uata in piioiity iegions.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I x vi i
RECUMMENDATIUNS UN RULES UF THE NATIUNAL SECURITY CUMMUNITY
The Biiectoi of National Intelligence shoulu:
Establish, within an appiopiiate agency of the Intelligence
Community, an intelligence gioup to concentiate on the effects of
climate change on political anu economic uevelopments anu theii
implications foi 0S national secuiity.
An impoitant focus of this effoit shoulu be to pioject human
secuiity changes that coulu uevelop into national secuiity
issues.
This gioup shoulu make extensive use of open souices, seek
to coopeiate with othei uomestic anu inteinational
intelligence effoits, anu iepoit most of its piouucts bioauly
within goveinment anu nongoveinmental communities.
The intelligence gioup shoulu commission the Cential Intelligence
Agency's (CIA) Centei foi Climate Change anu Secuiity to piouuce
an assessment of iegional climate change hotspots that thieaten
human secuiity anu goveinmental legitimacy anu exaceibate
existing tensions. They shoulu use this assessment as a
confiuence-builuing measuie to piomote communication between
antagonistic peoples oi states. This uocument shoulu be the basis
foi inteiagency coopeiation at the stiategic anu iegional levels.
The Piesiuent's National Secuiity Auvisoi, in conjunction with the Council
on Enviionmental Quality, shoulu establish an inteiagency woiking gioup
to uevelop:
Cooiuinateu climate change policies anu actions acioss 0S
goveinment entities.
A whole of goveinment appioach on iegional climate change
auaptation with a focus on piomoting climate change iesilience
anu maintaining iegional stability.
The Piesiuent's National Secuiity Auvisoi shoulu continue to emphasize
stiategic inteiagency uocuments, such as the guiuance to the combatant
commanueis which uetails the link between climate change effects anu the
unueilying conuitions that teiioiists seek to exploit anu shoulu uiiect
ielevant oiganizations to consiuei this ielationship in ueveloping theii
iegional plans.

x vi i i I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Beputy Secietaiy of State anu the Beputy Secietaiy of Befense shoulu:
Follow the example of the successful foieign militaiy tiaining
assistance piogiam to fashion euucation anu tiaining piogiams in
the fielus most ielevant to auapting to climate change, e.g.,
hyuiology, civil engineeiing, constiuction, agiicultuie, biology,
anu public health.
Nake conflict avoiuance a piioiity in foieign assistance (incluuing
secuiity assistance anu foieign militaiy sales), uevelopment, anu
uefense concept uevelopment anu planning.
Bevelop a stiategic communication message that links watei anu
foou secuiity anu incieaseu stoim intensity to iegional stability
anu 0S national secuiity.

RECUMMENDATIUNS UN THE RULE UF THE DEPARTMENT UF DEFENSE
The Beputy Secietaiy of Befense shoulu:
Establish a B0B-wiue cooiuinating policy boaiu foi climate
change impacts on national secuiity. This boaiu's functions shoulu
incluue:
A cooiuinating iole on climate change infoimation fiom the
stiategic anu opeiational peispective. This woulu incluue
assessing implications foi the foice stiuctuie, ueployment
options, etc.
Compiling anu assessing climate change effects infoimation
acioss the geogiaphic combatant commanus to iuentify
implications foi iegional stability anu the uevelopment of
global anu iegional foieign militaiy assistance piogiams.
B0B's inteiagency iepiesentative foi climate change
auaptation matteis.
Seiving as the focal point foi infoimation, web-enableu, that
can be accesseu by othei 0ffice of the Secietaiy of Befense
(0SB) offices as well as the }oint Staff, Seivices, anu
combatant commanus.
Expanu the authoiities of the 0peiational Eneigy Plans anu
Piogiams 0ffice to incluue opeiational climate change issues.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I x i x
Biiect the establishment of a piogiam of climate change auaptation
pilot piojects in conceit with ielateu piogiams at 0SAIB anu othei
agencies to iuentify, solicit, anu funu pilot piojects focuseu on
specific auaptation sectois anu locales (e.g., management of iegions
oi villages in Afiica anu Cential Asia). Examples of pilot piojects anu
suggesteu activities might incluue, but not limiteu, to:
Embiace anu augment the Woilu Climate Reseaich Piogiam
Cooiuinateu Regional Climate Bownscaling Expeiiment
(C0RBEX) foi one of the sub-iegions in Afiica. Apply C0RBEX
in conceit with an assessment activity similai to the
Pieuiction of Regional Scenaiios anu 0nceitainties foi
Befining Euiopean Climate Change Risks anu Effects
(PR0BENCE) pioject.
Extenu the obseivational, moueling, anu synthesis assessment
capabilities applieu touay in the 0niteu States in the 0ppei
Coloiauo Rivei Basin to a piioiity watei iesouice uistiict in
Afiica, peihaps linkeu with the Nile Basin initiative.
Apply coastal hot spot pilot piojects focuseu on offeiing local-
scale iisk assessment anu planning foi integiateu sea level
anu stoim impacts on the coupleu watei-eneigy-waste
iesouices anu physical infiastiuctuies foi megacities such as
Lagos, Kaiachi, anu Bahka.
Engage the 0niteu States ulobal Change Reseaich Piogiam
(0SuCRP) inteinational ieseaich piogiams, B0B commanus
anu theii in-countiy secuiity paitneis, anu inteinational aiu
agencies such as 0SAIB in iuentifying oppoitunities to shaie
climate change-ielateu infoimation anu biinging moie
visibility into stakeholueis' activities.
Focus on neai-teim, achievable, anu measuiable goals to
uevelop anu uemonstiate enu-to-enu thieaus of coie
infoimation systems while inciementally builuing in-countiy
capacity anu competence.
0ffice of the Secietaiy of Befense, 0ffice of the 0nuei Secietaiy of Befense
foi Policy anu the Biiectoi, }oint Staff shoulu uiiect uevelopment of a B0B
stiategic ioaumap foi climate change-ielateu effoits that builus on the
fiamewoik laiu out in the 0S Navy Climate Change Roaumap to:

x x I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Ensuie that the guiuance to the combatant commanueis, once
signeu, is consiueieu to be auequate by the Seivices anu
combatant commanus foi tianslating the bioau-level guiuance
offeieu in the Quauiennial Befense Review into actionable
iequiiements.
Biiect that combatant commanu missions incluue non-combat
suppoit to auuiess seiious climate change-inuuceu 0S national
secuiity vulneiabilities.
The Beputy 0nuei Secietaiy of Befense foi Installations anu Enviionment
shoulu assemble an inventoiy of ciitical facilities anu infiastiuctuie to
incluue an assessment of vulneiability to climate change effects anu the
means to auapt.
The Biiectoi, }oint Staff shoulu:
Cieate a holistic appioach to climate change, integiating effoits of
its ielevant uiiectoiates: }2 (Intelligence), }4 (Logistics), }S
(Stiategic Plans anu Policy), anu }8 (Foice Stiuctuie, Resouices, anu
Assessment Biiectoiate).
Requiie that climate change anu uisastei iisk ieuuction be
integiateu into tiaining anu exeicises.
The Secietaiies, Chiefs of the Seivices, anu heaus of uefense agencies
shoulu:
Bettei integiate climate change anu uisastei iisk ieuuction
consiueiations into exeicises, tiaining, anu euucational mateiials.
Establish metiics focuseu on iisk ieuuction to minimize the
impact of climate change on militaiy anu suppoit opeiations,
foices, piogiams, anu facilities.
Bevelop guiuance to ensuie climate change iesilience in B0B
pioject uesigns anu constiuction by incoipoiating climate change
iisk into uesign stanuaius foi facilities anu installations, with
emphasis on the elements ielateu to eneigy intensive anu watei
intensive uses.
The Secietaiies anu Chiefs of the Seivices shoulu:
Assess the Seivices' engineeiing oiganizations anu the cost-
benefits of using them in assisting climate change auaptation.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I x x i
0tilize militaiy to militaiy engagement oppoitunities with coalition
paitneis to enhance iesilience to climate change impacts anu
uisastei iisk ieuuction capacities. In so uoing, they shoulu expanu
consiueiation of ioles foi the National uuaiu anu ieseives. (Foi
example, knowleuge of tiauitionally non-militaiy skills neeueu to
iesponu to climate change thieats is often founu in the ieseives.)
Examine tasking authoiities foi uomestic anu inteinational
iesponse to natuial uisastei oi othei uisastei iisk iesponse
situations. Foi example, the National uuaiu coulu biing impoitant
assets to an inteinational uisastei, as it alieauy uoes in iesponuing
to uomestic uisasteis.
0niteu States Noithein Commanu, with suppoit fiom the Navy anu Coast
uuaiu, shoulu iuentify the assets that will be neeueu to opeiate in the
Aictic to incluue communication assets, peisonnel tiaining, ice bieakeis,
anu othei equipment.
The geogiaphic combatant commanus shoulu:
Iuentify eaily waining inuicatois foi those aieas ciitical to B0B's
mission set.
Incoipoiate the guiuance fiom the Quauiennial Befense Review
anu B0B Stiategic uuiuance on eneigy, secuiity, anu climate
change into theatei campaign plans.
Cieate a uemanu signal by aiticulating the neeu to unueistanu the
implications of climate change anu iesouice scaicities in theii
iegion to suppoit theii campaign plans.
Incluue in theii theatei campaign plans eneigy, foou, watei, anu
uisastei iisk ieuuction stiategies anu plans foi ieuucing
vulneiabilities within theii iespective aieas of iesponsibility.
Bainess moie systematically iesouices beyonu the tiauitional
combatant commanu stiuctuie, to incluue the National uuaiu, anu
its State Paitneiship Piogiam, seivice engineeiing units such as
the 0S Aimy Coips of Engineeis anu Naval Facilities Commanu,
anu 0SB-leu piogiams such as the Befense Enviionmental
Inteinational Coopeiation Piogiam anu the Stiategic
Enviionmental Reseaich anu Bevelopment Piogiam.
Conuuct systematic iegional oi even moie localizeu impact
assessments to iuentify tienus anu wheie theii iesouices shoulu be

x x i i I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

focuseu. To this enu, each shoulu iequest that the CIA Climate
Change anu Secuiity Centei pioviue a iepoit on climate change
effects anu hot spots in theii iespective aieas of iesponsibility.
Piogiams such as B0B's Climate Change anu Afiican Stability Pioject
(Nineiva Initiative) coulu also be utilizeu in such unueitakings.
Incluue as a Tiei 1 objective enhancing the capacity of host nation
militaiies anu civil iesponse ieauiness gioups to plan foi, anu
iesponu to, natuial uisasteis (e.g., floous, coastal stoim suiges,
anu uioughts).
Integiate into theii humanitaiian assistanceuisastei ielief anu
othei exeicise plans auuitional climate change-ielateu aspects.
These exeicises shoulu incluue inteiagency activity.
Piomote the concept of cooiuinateu management of shaieu
natuial iesouices like watei.

OBSERVATION, MODEL, AND PROJ ECTION CAPABILITIES I 1

Cbapter 1 Current Ubservation, Model,
Pro|ection Capabilities

To be effective, actions by the 0niteu States auuiessing the impacts of
climate change that aie potentially impoitant to national secuiity iequiie
extensive auvanceu planning anu inteiaction with otheis' inteiests in
auvance of significant effects. This iequiies the ability to assess potential
futuie enviionmental effects of climate change anu theii political, economic,
anu geogiaphic impacts yeais oi uecaues befoie those effects appeai.
ueneiating such assessments involves the synthesis of obseivations of the
cuiient anu past climate system, numeiical mouels anu theii pieuictions
anu piojections, non-climatic infoimation, anu expeit juugment.
Assessments of past anu cuiient climate conuitions aie laigely baseu on
obseivational uata with well-quantifieu unceitainties. Assessments of futuie
climate vaiiability anu change aie moie complex anu the neeueu
unueistanuing of the natuie anu limitations of assessment capabilities aie
often not available to uecision makeis. The woius pieuiction, foiecast, anu
piojections aie fiequently useu, often inteichangeably, in assessments of
potential futuie climate change impacts following the familiai paiauigm of
weathei foiecasts, with an assumption that pieuictions, foiecasts, anu
piojections use the same methous anu piouuce equivalent infoimation.
Bowevei, theie aie impoitant uiffeiences between these assessment
methous. The uiffeiences aie ielevant foi unueistanuing the capabilities anu
limitations of piesent-uay climate infoimation. This chaptei begins with an
oveiview of these methous, followeu by a ieview of cuiient climate
obseivation anu moueling capabilities.
Climate Prediction, Forecast, and Pro|ection
Metbods
To stait with familiai teiiitoiy, weathei foiecasts aie cuiiently
piouuceu by Numeiical Weathei Pieuiction (NWP) systems. These systems
aie maue up of foui piincipal components:
Wiue vaiiety of obseivations (e.g., balloon sounuings, suiface
measuiements, satellite measuiements, anu ocean buoy
measuiements)

2 I CHAPTER 1

Numeiicalcomputei foiecast mouels
A uata assimilation system
Expeit inteipietation
0bseivations pioviue an initial conuition foi the foiecast mouel that
suppoits a physically-baseu weathei pieuiction piojecteu foi five to
fifteen uays. Foi the next foiecast, the uata assimilation system is useu to
piouuce a new initial conuition valiu foi that time by incoipoiating the
new obseivations that have become available with the mouel foiecast
applicable to that time. The lattei pioviues uynamical constiaints anu fills
in the gaps wheie obseivations aie inauequate. Finally, the iesults of this
foiecast aie inteipieteu by meteoiologists who apply expeit juugment to
the final piouucts ieleaseu to enu useis. This is a iigoious pioceuuie
continually exeiciseu by opeiational weathei seivices eveiy uay.
A close analogy, sometimes iefeiieu to as seasonal climate pieuiction
(e.g., one to six month leau time), uses essentially the same tools, iesouices,
anu geneial methous applieu in weathei foiecasting, albeit on longei
timescales. Cuiiently, seasonal climate pieuiction is piimaiily limiteu to
featuies such as the El Nio Southein 0scillation (ENS0) oi the Inuian anu
Asian monsoons. In contiast to weathei foiecasts, the longei timescales of
climate iequiie consiueiation of auuitional physical factois anu piocesses
that uo not change appieciably ovei the couise of a weathei foiecast.
Examples of such factois anu piocesses impacting climate incluue soil
moistuie, sea ice, biogeochemistiy, anu in paiticulai the inteiaction with the
neai suiface layei of the ocean. Such mouels neeu to be moie
compiehensive anu less uetaileu because of computational limitations.
Noieovei, the obseivational neeus aie fai moie uemanuing, iequiiing
measuiements of a wiuei set of physical factois anu piocesses. Bespite this,
theie aie cuiiently a numbei of successful, skillful, opeiational, anu
seasonal climate pieuiction effoits foi seasonal foiecasting, but these aie
mostly associateu with pieuicting ENS0 impacts on global weathei anu
climate patteins. A key limitation of these seasonal climate pieuictions is
that they aie cuiiently uesigneu to foiecast the laige-scale pattein, geneial
chaiactei, anu statistics of tiopical Pacific sea suiface tempeiatuies but not
the specific evolution of the weathei patteins within the affecteu aiea.

Two extensions of the weathei anu seasonal climate foiecasting
paiauigms aie ielevant to assessments of longei-teim climate change. The
fiist, uecaual climate pieuiction, attempts to stait fiom an obseiveu initial
conuition of the climate state anu then mouels the evolution of the laigei-
slowei scale climate patteins (e.g., ENS0, meiiuional oveituining ciiculation
in the Atlantic 0cean, potential gieenhouse gas-ielateu waiming ovei the
uecaue), followeu by quantifying the statistics (but not uetaileu behavioi) of
the weathei associateu with these changes. 0ne aspect of the upcoming Fifth
Assessment of the Inteigoveinmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will
employ this methou to assess neaiei-teim impacts (e.g., thiough 2uSS).
The seconu extension is often associateu with the teim "climate
piojections." This teiminology geneially applies to centuiy-scale mouels,
typically thiough the yeai 21uu. The woiu piojection, iathei than the
woius pieuiction oi foiecast, highlights that a climate piojection is meant
to iepiesent the expecteu evolution anu chaiactei of the most geneial
featuies of climate (e.g., global mean anu laige-scale tempeiatuies, snow
anu ice covei, sea level iise). The piojection incluues the statistics of
weathei, its extiemes (e.g., heat waves, uioughts, anu huiiicanes), anu the
chaiactei anu changes in moues of weathei anu climate vaiiability.
Foi climate piojection, the iole of obseivations shifts fiom pioviuing
initial conuitions to suppoiting mouel uevelopment anu mouel valiuation
by compaiing the iesults of climate simulations to past obseiveu climate
ovei a ielevant peiiou. Such infoimation is not yet compiehensive in
teims of a vaiiety of physical piocesses that come into play ovei long
timescales. Climate uata iecoius neeu to be sufficiently long to captuie the
vaiiability anu tienus ovei the couise of the piojecteu leau time, which
may be uecaues oi a centuiy. Finally, climate piojections often incluue a
iange of potential futuie physical actions affecting the emission anu
iemoval of climate-foicing gieenhouse gases.
With the above claiifications in minu, it is eviuent that both
obseivations anu mouels of the Eaith system foim the founuation foi
climate assessments. Bence, the fiuelity anu utility of climate assessments
aie uiiectly ielateu to the capability anu limitations of existing
obseivations anu mouels. uiven the neeu to exploie a bioau iange of
potential futuie changes in the enviionment, coupleu with socioeconomic
uiiveis anu impacts, Eaith system obseivations anu mouels aie neeueu to

4 I CHAPTER 1

quantify anu unueistanu the past anu piesent climate anu to pioviue
objective anu physically-baseu infeiences on futuie climate anu its
associateu impacts. The mouel iesults neeu to incluue iigoious
quantification of the associateu unceitainties.
Cllmute obxervutlonx
Compiehensive obseivations of the Eaith systemthe atmospheie,
hyuiospheie, ciyospheie, anu biospheieaie founuational to assessing
past anu piesent climate conuitions anu suppoiting effoits to foiecast anu
pioject futuie conuitions. Theii ielevance anu impoitance to piojecting
futuie conuitions ueiives mainly fiom theii usefulness in suppoiting climate
mouel uevelopment, valiuation, anu evaluation. Climate mouels aie the only
means to obtain objective anu physically-baseu piojections of futuie
climate. To be useful in seiving that puipose, it is essential that obseivations
aie well-uesigneu, calibiateu, anu maintaineu ovei time. Nouels offei
mathematical iepiesentations of the Eaith system with unceitainties
limiteu by the valiuity of the unueilying assumptions anu the spatial,
tempoial iesolutions affoiueu by the available computational iesouices. In
contiast, obseivational unceitainties aie limiteu piincipally by tempoial
anu spatial sampling biases, the systematic eiiois (e.g., bias) associateu with
the measuiement technology, anu the ianuom measuiement eiioi (i.e.,
noise) that can aiise fiom both of the above.
Figuie 1-1 piesents an example of the uiffeiences in fiuelity that can
occui between obseivations anu mouel simulations.
2
In this case, the mouel
significantly unueiestimates the obseiveu infoimation.
3
This is not to suggest
that obseivations aie always bettei than mouels oi sufficient alone. Both aie
neeueu. 0bseivational uata in the absence of mouels can be noisy anu of
limiteu use without the essential link to physical piocesses. Nouels without
giounuing in obseivations can be fantasy. 0bseivations complement anu
suppoit mouels by facilitating stuuy of key piocesses towaius bettei mouels,
by offeiing a benchmaik to valiuate anu guiue iefinement in mouels, anu by
integiation with mouels thiough uata assimilation. Bata assimilation

2. A. Cazenave anu R. S. Neiem, "Piesent-uay sea level change: 0bseivations anu
causes," Reviews of 6eopbysics 42 (2uu4), RuSuu1, 2u PP.
S. R. Schubeit et al. , Tbe future oceonsworminq up, risinq biqb, turninq sour (Beilin:
ueiman Auvisoiy Council on ulobal Change, 2uu6).

pioviues the means to piouuce ietiospective ieanalysis utilizing as many
obseivations anu mouel constiaints as possible.
0bseivations of the cuiient Eaith system state aie conuucteu fiom a
iange of vantage points using uiffeient measuiement techniques.
0bseivational vantage points incluue the suiface anu subsuiface of lanu
anu oceans (e.g., buoys, uiifteis anu ships of oppoitunity), aiiboine
platfoims (e.g., ieseaich anu commeicial aiiciaft), anu satellites in a
vaiiety of oibits. Neasuiement techniques incluue sample collection foi
laboiatoiy analysis, in situ measuiements, anu iemote sensing techniques
spanning the electiomagnetic spectium. A subset of these techniques is
employeu to stuuy pioxies foi past climatic conuitions (e.g., analysis of aii
anu watei stoieu in ice coies).
Nany obseivational systems touay aie focuseu on auuiessing
funuamental questions in climate piocess unueistanuingfoi example,
the global iauiation buuget, the hyuiologic, caibon, anu nitiogen cycles,
anu othei feeuback piocesses. Such ieseaich is ciitical to impioving the
quality of global climate mouels but often the question being askeu can be
auuiesseu with global-scale infoimation using spaise obseivations, so not
necessaiily pioviuing the uensei sampling anu iegional oi local scale
infoimation ielevant to uecision-making.

Figure 1-1. Clobal sea level rise as recorded by satellite
measurements

6 I CHAPTER 1

Essential Climate vaiiables (ECvs), listeu in Table 1-1, have been uefineu
by the ulobal Climate 0bseiving System
4
in an effoit to piioiitize
obseivations anu close gaps. Assessment of ECv collection status is an
ongoing effoit, without cleai consensus on the cuiient state of completeness.
Foi example, some assessments show faiily complete ECv uata collection but
only foi global scale assessments. An assessment of ECvs pioviuing highei
iesolution infoimation neeueu to suppoit iegional assessment anu
uownscaling of climate mouels offeis a less optimistic pictuie.
Table 1-1. Essential Climate Variables
Domain CCUS Essential Climate Variables
Atmospheric
(over land,
sea, and ice)
Surface: Air temperature, Wind speed and direction
[over the oceans], Water vapour, Pressure,
Precipitation, Surface radiation budget
Upper air: Temperature, Wind speed and direction,
Water vapour, Cloud properties, Earth
radiation budget (including solar irradiance)
Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, and other long-
lived greenhouse gases, Ozone and
Aerosol, supported by their precursors.
Oceanic Surface: Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface
salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice,
Surface current, Ocean colour, Carbon dioxide
partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Phytoplankton
Subsurface: Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients,
Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity,
Oxygen, Tracers
Terrestrial River discharge, Water use, Groundwater, Lakes, Snow cover,
Glaciers and ice caps, Ice sheets, Permafrost, Albedo, Land
cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed
photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR), Leaf area index
(LAI), Above-ground biomass, Soil carbon, Fire disturbance,
Soil moisture
Note: Bold font indicates ECVs primarily provided by satellite observations.
Source: Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) 2011

4. The ulobal Climate 0bseiving System is a joint unueitaking of the Woilu
Neteoiological 0iganization, the Inteigoveinmental 0ceanogiaphic Commission of the
0niteu Nations Euucational Scientific anu Cultuial 0iganization, the 0niteu Nations
Enviionment Piogiamme, anu the Inteinational Council foi Science. As a system of
climate-ielevant obseiving systems, it constitutes, in aggiegate, the climate obseiving
component of the ulobal Eaith 0bseivation System of Systems.

Foi example, obseivationally ueiiveu estimates of global mean sea
level, an ECv, aie geneially consiueieu well establisheu. Bowevei, shifts in
winu, iain, evapoiation, anu lanu ice volume can iesult in local-scale
vaiiations in sea level that can be an oiuei of magnituue laigei than the
global mean inciease piojecteu fiom theimal expansion of the ocean anu
lanu suiface melt-watei iunoff.
5

Compiehensive assessments of the completeness of climate
obseivations aie not ieauily available. To some extent, this is a moving
taiget given ongoing uevelopments in vaiious uevelopment piogiams anu
national buugets. Bowevei, some insight can be gleaneu by consiueiing
specific examples.
Examining the evolution of Numeiical Weathei Pieuiction ovei the past
seveial uecaues is instiuctive. NWP is the founuation of the weathei
foiecasts geneiateu by national weathei seivices. As noteu in the opening of
this section, NWP uses uata assimilation to ingest a vaiiety of in-situ anu
satellite obseivations foi the puipose of geneiating the accuiate initial
conuitions foi theii weathei foiecasts. Figuie 1-2 illustiates a tenfolu
impiovement in spatial iesolution in shoit-teim weathei foiecasting
between 198u anu 2uuS foi the National Centeis foi Enviionmental
Pieuiction (NCEP) in the 0niteu States anu the Euiopean Centei foi
Neuium-Range Weathei Foiecasts (ECNWF). This impiovement ueiives
mainly fiom an inciease in computational iesouices anu speeu which, when
combineu with impiovements in the mouels themselves anu the incieasing
numbei anu types of obseivations, has leu to a continuing inciease in NWP
foiecast skill ovei the same peiiou.
0vei the last uecaue oi moie, the above fiamewoik of utilizing
obseivations in conjunction with uata assimilation methouology anu
numeiical foiecast mouels has aii quality anu hyuiology extensions to
weathei foiecasts. Foi longei timescales, it has extenueu to ocean
infoimation foi the puiposes of foiecasting El Nio Southein 0scillation anu
seasonal climate pieuiction. Nost iecently, this fiamewoik has been
extenueu to consiuei uecaual climate pieuiction anu effoits to employ
obseivations of atmospheiic concentiations of caibon uioxiue (C02), an

S. ulobal Climate 0bseiving System, lmplementotion Plon for tbe 6lobol 0bservinq
System for Climote in Support for tbe 0NICCC |0niteu National Fiamewoik Convention
on Climate Changej (Woilu Neteoiological 0iganization, 2u1u).

8 I CHAPTER 1

ECv, to pioviue potential ietiospective analysis anu pieuiction infoimation
to climate tieaty veiification.
6

Figure 1-2. Trends in sbort-term weatber {0-14 Days] numerical
weatber prediction resolution

Figure 1-3. Relative density of existing surface weatber stations in
tbe United States and global CU2 observations

6. Committee on National Secuiity Implications of Climate Change foi 0S Naval Foices,
Notionol Security lmplicotions of Climote Cbonqe for 0S Novol Iorces (Washington, B.C.:
The National Acauemies Piess, 2u11).


Figuie 1-S offeis a stiiking compaiison between the uensity of global
suiface weathei stations, an opeiational system useu to suppoit NWP, anu
suiface C02 obseivations fiom the ulobal Atmospheie Watch, an
exploiatoiy science piogiam, anu the National 0ceanic anu Atmospheiic
Auministiation (N0AA). The oiueis of magnituue uiffeience in weathei
veisus C02 obseivations anu associateu funuing (Table 1-2) also ieflect this
staik uispaiity. The implication foi C02 is that significant gaps will neeu to
be closeu to offei an impiovement in capability analogous to that
expeiienceu with the evolution of NWP.
With iegaius to suiface hyuiology obseivations, Figuie 1-4 offeis a
summaiy of existing 0niteu Nations Enviionmental Piogiam (0NEP)
ulobal Enviionment Nonitoiing System (uENS) uata collection iesouices
by continent. Afiica significantly lags othei iegions in teims of
obseivational uensity with only S peicent of hyuiologic measuiement
sites spanning a iegion iepiesenting 2u peicent of the Eaith's inhabiteu
lanu suiface aiea.
Table 1-2. Comparison of total observation assets and annual
expenditures {FY09] on tbe global weatber system and global CU2
observations including satellites in geostationary and low eartb
{polar] orbits.
Weatber Surface CU2
Surface-based stations >10,000 globally 100 globally
Geo satellites >10 (all nations) 0
Leo satellites >10 (all nations) 1*
Product spatial
resolution
(reanalysis and forecast)
1040km >2000km
U.S. annual funding
(average, civilian)
$3,000M
($1,000M NWS,
$2,000M NESDIS)
$120M
(across 7 agencies,
USGCRP)
Note: The asterisk indicates the current capability lacks the required precision and
spatial resolution for decision support.
Source: World Meteorological Association

10 I CHAPTER 1

Source: UNEP GEMS Water Programme (Printed with permission)
Figure1-4. Comparison of bydrologic observation sites for UNEP
CEMS program
As of }une 2u1u, the National Aeionautics anu Space Auministiation's
(NASA) plan foi satellite obseivations ielevant to watei iesouice
management incluues the following funueu piogiams:
7

Measurements. The ulobal Piecipitation Nission, with a 2u1S
scheuuleu launch, will pioviue an impoitant auvance ovei the
Tiopical Rainfall Neasuiing Nission by pioviuing enhanceu
geogiaphical coveiage, uual fiequency iauai foi piecipitation
type, anu thiee-houi tempoial iesolution coming fiom its
constellation of satellites using passive miciowave sensois.
Soil moisture and freeze-tbaw state. The 2u14 launch of the Soil
Noistuie Active Passive (SNAP) mission will pioviue global
measuiements of soil moistuie anu fieeze-thaw state.
Inland water beigbt. The launch of the Suiface Watei anu 0cean
Topogiaphy (SW0T) mission, planneu foi launch in 2u2u, will

7. R.N. Buien anu C.E. Nillei, "Towaius Robust ulobal uieenhouse uas Nonitoiing,"
6reenbouse 6os Heosurement onJ Honoqement (2u11).

pioviue unpieceuenteu insight into the quantity of watei in iiveis
anu lakes anu highei iesolution ocean suiface topogiaphy.
Cround water measurements. The uiavity Recoveiy anu Climate
Change Expeiiment (uRACE) Follow-on (F0) mission will pioviue
continental (1.uuus kms) infoimation on changes in suiface snow,
ice, watei, anu stoieu giounu watei builuing upon the appioach
uemonstiateu with the uRACE mission.
Clacier volume cbanges. The Ice, Clouu, anu Lanu Elevation
Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) anu Befoimation, Ecosystem Stiuctuie anu
Bynamics of Ice (BESBynI) liuais can pioviue infoimation about
glaciei volumes anu theii changes ovei time, especially, but not
exclusively, at high latituues.
Water quality in coastal regions. The launch of the 0cean
Ecosystem Spectioiauiometei instiument aboaiu the fiist
platfoim of the Pie-Aeiosol, Clouus, anu 0cean Ecosystem mission,
planneu foi launch in 2u18, will pioviue new, high quality
infoimation on the biogeochemical piopeities of coastal wateis
anu theii implications foi ecosystem anu human health.
Nortbern latitude land, lakes, and permafrost. Change in Aictic
featuies is a bioau bellwethei of climate change. Coupling of uata
fiom the Soil Noistuie Active Passive mission, SW0T, BESBynI,
anu uRACE F0 will enable an integiateu view of the lanu poition
of the watei cycle in this key iegion.
Similaily, in 0ctobei 2u1u, the 0niteu States uioup on Eaith
0bseivations (0SuE0)
8
offeieu seveial iecommenuations to avoiu neai-
teim gaps aligneu with seventeen topical aieas.
9
Bowevei, subsequent
changes in funuing impacteu multiple elements of the above plans foi
sustaineu obseivations. Auuitionally, failuies of the launch of scientific
satellites continue to occui. The uecision to launch one-of-a-kinu
spaceciaft anu instiuments on lowei-cost, lowei-ieliability launch vehicles
may be compatible with piioiities in a piogiam uiiven by exploiatoiy

8. The 0S uioup on Eaith 0bseivations is chaiteieu by the 0ffice of Science anu
Technology Policy to piioiitize anu offei guiuance foi elements of a 0S global obseiving
system as pait of oui nation's contiibution to the inteinational ulobal Eaith
0bseivational System of Systems. 0SuE0 plays a iole in iuentifying ciitical gaps in 0S
obseivational capability anu makes iecommenuations foi closing those gaps.
9. The 0S uioup on Eaith 0bseivations, Acbievinq onJ Sustoininq Fortb 0bservotions:
A Preliminory Plon BoseJ on o Stroteqic Assessment (2u1u).

12 I CHAPTER 1

science. It uoes not pioviue foi ieliable opeiational uata ueliveiy. Theie is
no inuication this tienu will be coiiecteu in the neai futuie to maintain a
ieliable ueployment scheuule foi an opeiational capability. 0peiational
obseivations fiom space touay with ielevance to climate infoimation aie
piimaiily limiteu to the weathei satellites of N0AANASA anu theii
uefense counteipaits in polai anu geostationaiy oibits.
1u

The above uiscussion on obseivation is consistent with the following
fiom the 2u1u National Reseaich Council stuuy AJvoncinq tbe Science of
Climote Cbonqe:
An integiateu Eaith system analysis capability, oi the ability to cieate
an accuiate, inteinally consistent, synthesizeu uesciiption of the
evolving Eaith system, is a key ieseaich neeu iuentifieu both in this
iepoit anu many pievious iepoits. Peihaps the single gieatest
ioaublock to achieving this capability is the lack of compiehensive,
iobust, anu unbiaseu long-teim global obseivations of the climate
system anu othei ielateu human anu enviionmental systems.
11

FINDINCS UN CLIMATE UBSERVATIUN
Touay's climate obseivations anu mouels exist as a loose feueiation of
piogiams at many goveinment agencies, acauemia, inuustiy, anu
nongoveinmental oiganizations (Nu0s). While some of these assets aie
opeiational systems (e.g., those suppoiting weathei anu seasonal climate
like the ENS0 foiecast seivices), the majoiity of obseivational assets anu
many of the moueling assets touay aie intenueu piimaiily foi exploiatoiy
science iathei than suppoiting opeiational, long-teim climate assessments.
Nany of the obseivational assets of the civilian scientific community aie
not iobust to failuies oi uata gaps.
Nany obseivations aie intenueu to help impiove basic climate piocess
unueistanuing such as closing global-scale eneigy, caibon, anu watei
buugets but uo not necessaiily offei the spatio-tempoial iesolution,

1u. The foimei National Polai-oibiting 0peiational Enviionmental Satellite System
piogiam is moving foiwaiu as the sepaiate }oint Polai Satellite System anu the Befense
Weathei Satellite System piogiams which will auuiess some, but not all, of the ECvs. Nost
ECvs will continue to be ueliveieu by exploiatoiy science assets foi the foieseeable futuie.
11. Ameiica's Climate Choices: Panel on Auvancing the Science of Climate Change,
National Reseaich Council, AJvoncinq tbe Science of Climote Cbonqe (Washington, B.C.:
The National Acauemies Piess, 2u1u).

completeness oi accuiacy to suppoit neeueu impiovements in, oi
valiuation of, iegional climate mouels, paiticulaily in ueveloping countiies.
The 0S goveinment neeus a scientifically iobust, sustaineu, anu actionable
climate infoimation system that auuiesses these anu othei issues. The
neeus foi such a system anu key baiiieis to its establishment aie
uesciibeu in Appenuix A of this iepoit.

Climate Models
Climate assessments anu piojections iely on thiee categoiies of mouels:
ulobal climate mouels, sometimes iefeiieu to as Eaith system
mouels, that iepiesent the biogeophysical piocesses of the Eaith
system incluuing atmospheie, hyuiospheie, ciyospheie, anu
caibon cycle
Impact assessment anu vulneiability mouels that auuiess the
impact of climate on human iesouices incluuing infiastiuctuie,
health, foou, anu watei availability
Integiateu assessment mouels which seek to ueteimine the
connectivity of human action such as eneigy, lanu, anu watei use
with the othei two mouel uomains
The thiee types of mouels have some uegiee of oveilap. A moie
complete tieatment of these uomains foi synthesis assessment is
piesenteu in Appenuix A. This section focuses on the evolving capabilities
of ulobal Climate Nouels (uCNs).
uCNs vaiy in complexity anu capability but geneially consist of coupleu
atmospheie-ocean geneial ciiculation mouels, with auuitional components
that account foi lanu suiface anu some ciyospheiic components (e.g., snow,
sea ice). Such mouels aie the backbone of objective, physically-baseu
climate piojections. Theie aie thiee piincipal limitations when piojecting
the combineu impacts of climate change in specific iegions of the woilu:
0nceitainty in the tiajectoiy of futuie emissions of anthiopogenic
gieenhouse gasses anu theii aiiboine fiactions in the piesence of
a changing climate
Limitations anu unceitainties associateu with uCNs

14 I CHAPTER 1

Limitations in ueiiving pieuictive infoimation at ielatively fine
local-to-iegional scales (~ 1 to 1uu km) fiom uCN simulations
which aie piesently limiteu to iepiesenting climate changes on
scales laigei than about 1uuu km
The fiist limitation convolves the wiue iange of potential futuie
gieenhouse gas stabilization scenaiios with the shoitcomings in coupleu
caibon-climate mouels. In 2uu1, the Inteigoveinmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) uevelopeu a family of futuie emission scenaiios, the Special
Repoit on Emission Scenaiios (SRES). The SRES scenaiios, illustiateu in
Figuie 1-S, foimeu the founuation of the iange of climate piojections
associateu with the thiiu anu fouith IPCC assessments. In the figuie, coloieu
lines inuicate the six illustiative SRES maikei scenaiios. The 8u
th
peicentile
iange of subsequent "post-SRES" scenaiios compiise the giay shaueu aieas.
Basheu lines show the full iange of post-SRES scenaiios. Emissions covei
C02, CB4, N20, anu F-gases.

Figure 1-5. Clobal greenbouse gas emissions
The socioeconomic assumptions behinu the SRES scenaiios leau to a
uiveigent set of potential outcomes iegaiuing aiiboine fiactions of
gieenhouse gasses ovei multiple uecaues. It shoulu be emphasizeu that in
past IPCC assessments, only a subset of such emission scenaiios weie fully

evaluateu by uCNs anu subjecteu to integiateu assessment of impacts anu
vulneiability. To some extent this was uue to piactical limitations in
computational capacity that piecluueu iunning full uCNs foi all emission
scenaiios. Foi example, in the IPCC Fouith Assessment Repoit (AR4), the
most intense scenaiio A1FI (the FI iepiesenting fossil intensive) ieceiveu
paitial tieatment with Simple Climate Nouels that attempteu to pieuict
the waiming that the moie complex uCNs woulu have piojecteu. uiven
this aitificial limitation in the assessment, piocess ieaueis of AR4 weie
piesenteu with an impiession that a global waiming of 4C by 21uu
iepiesenteu a woist-case scenaiio; wheieas, a closei examination ieveals
that the likely iange of the scenaiios is 1.6-6.9C.
Theie is an ongoing uebate about the likelihoou of scenaiio A1FI 0n
one hanu, iecent obseivations of atmospheiic gieenhouse concentiations
inuicate a tienu consistent with the A1FI scenaiio, suggesting this scenaiio
may iepiesent a moie likely tiajectoiy. 0n the othei hanu, we aie still only
one uecaue into the 21st centuiy anu some expeits continue to asseit that
A1FI paints a "non-cieuible" pictuie of futuie emissions: that fossil fuel
use will peak eaily this centuiy uue to iesouice limitations. In any event,
uecision makeis shoulu be awaie of the unceitainty inheient in pieuicting
futuie emission tiajectoiies anu the bioau iange of possible outcomes,
incluuing those that coulu leau to two to thiee times gieatei waiming by
21uu than the 2C waiming scenaiio that has been the focus of some
iecent policy uiscussions anu an eailiei onset of such waiming.
The pieceuing uiscussion uealt only with unceitainty in the climate
foicing fiom an emissions peispective in an otheiwise static enviionment.
Bowevei, the othei confounuing issue in piojecting the climate (iauiative)
foicing is an incomplete unueistanuing of the biogeophysical piocesses
associateu with the caibon cycle anu the climate feeubacks on the caibon
cycle (with implications on the net atmospheiic levels of the two most
significant anthiopogenic gieenhouse gases, C02 anu CB4). The aiiboine
fiactions of C02 anu CB4 unueigo significant intei-annual vaiiability uue
to natuial piocesses such as the El Nio Southein 0scillation. The
pieponueiance of eviuence suggests the mean aiiboine fiactions of C02
anu CB4 aie likely to change in the piesence of an evolving climate uue to
impacts on the caibon sequestiation potential of the teiiestiial
ecosystems anu oceans.

16 I CHAPTER 1

While theie is uisagieement about whethei cuiient obseivations aie
alieauy showing a tienu in incieasing aiiboine fiaction (uifficult to assess
given unceitainties in teiiestiial caibon cycle measuiements), coupleu
mouels such as those contiibuting to the Coupleu Caibon-Climate Cycle
Nouel Inteicompaiison Pioject (C4NIP) have shown unanimous
agieement that this mechanism is a positive feeuback. The aiiboine
fiaction is expecteu to acceleiate in a waiming climate. Recent coupleu
caibon-climate mouels anu expeit assessment iepoit a best estimate foi
the A1FI scenaiio of a 4C mean waiming by 2u7uoi in the eaily 2u6us
if the caibon cycle feeuback is stiongei than pieuicteu.
The seconu limitation mentioneu above involves the piesent-uay
shoitcomings anu challenges of ueveloping accuiate uCNs that foim an
essential component of oui synthesis of the climate system. Equally, if not
moie impoitant, is theii iole in pioviuing objective, physically-baseu
climate piojections, anu thus a backbone of oui assessments. 0p to, anu
incluuing, the 2uu7 IPCC Fouith Assessment, these uCNs accounteu foi
the physical inteiactions between the oceans, atmospheie, lanu suiface
(e.g., soil moistuie, lanu covei type, anu influences of vegetation), anu
elements of the ciyospheie (e.g., snow covei, sea ice).
At piesent, moueling gioups aie ueveloping theii contiibutions foi the
next set of coupleu mouel expeiiments, iefeiieu to as the Sth Coupleu Nouel
Inteicompaiison Pioject (CNIPS)
12
that foims the piincipal mouel
simulation anu piojection component foi the upcoming IPCC Fifth
Assessment Repoit. Foi CNIPS, the state-of-the-ait in the above-mentioneu
components continues to evolve anu impiove, with moie iealism in the
iepiesentation of aeiosols anu the miciophysics of clouus anu theii
inteiactions togethei, with solai anu infiaieu iauiation in the sophistication
of the lanu suiface piocesses, namely vegetation, snow pack, iunoff, anu soil
moistuie, of clouus anu aeiosol, anu in the theimouynamic anu uynamic
iepiesentation of sea ice. Noieovei, theie is capacity foi a slight
impiovement in hoiizontal iesolution, now about 1uukm foi many mouels
when iunning centuiy-long simulations anu piojections.
This incieaseu computing capacity, along with auuitional component
unueistanuing anu neeu foi bettei uecision suppoit, have necessitateu
two significant auuitions to past CNIP mouel aichives anu associateu

12. http:cmip-pcmui.llnl.govcmipS

science anu assessment activities. The fiist incluues explicit caibon cycle
coupling within a suite of histoiical simulations anu centuiy-leau
piojections. Foi these cases, iathei than specify the caibon uioxiue
concentiation, the emissions aie specifieu anu the, as yet iuentifieu,
piincipal souices anu sinks of C02, along with tianspoit piocesses, aie
simulateu to pioviue piognostic values of C02. These piojections allow foi
moie uegiees of fieeuom anu will test the unueistanuing of how the lanu
anu ocean souices anu sinks will iesponu to the vaiious emission
pathways that coulu be consiueieu.
The seconu taigets moie tangible anu neai-teim assessments, with
moie iealism at iegional scales, via thiity-yeai climate piojections. These
aie chaiacteiizeu by using an ensemble of obseiveu initial conuitions fiom
the iecent past climate (e.g., 197S, 2uuS) anu the associateu uCN mouel
pieuictions fiom these initial conuitions, with the possibility of slightly
highei iesolution given the shoitei integiation time. Becaual pieuiction is
still veiy much in an expeiimental stage, anu the uegiee of pieuictability of
the natuial vaiiability at uecaual timescales is still unceitain. In any case,
both the centuiy-scale piojections (whethei caibon-coupleu oi not) anu,
in paiticulai, the uecaual scale pieuictions will seive as useful input to
iegional uownscaling effoits to biing moie infoimation to uecision
suppoit issues (e.g., localiegional hyuiology, sea level, anu extiemes).
uiven the significant numbei of global mouels (~2u), each with
uiffeiences in the mannei they mouel the physical system, along with the
multi-membei ensemble of simulations anu piojections expecteu fiom
each mouel, anu the aiiay of specification foi C02 (e.g., levels of specifieu
concentiation oi emission scenaiios). These mouels pioviue a significant
auvance in phase space sampling to bettei quantify scenaiio, mouel,
stochastic, anu initial conuition unceitainties. Such infoimation can be
utilizeu fiom the global mouels, as well as augmenteu with uownscaleu
infoimation fiom a suite of iegional mouels, to pioviue global to local
policy anu uecision makeis a bioau sampling of physically-baseu
infoimation. In auuition to the above piimaiy new elements to CNIPS,
theie is a host of science-motivateu expeiiments uesigneu to impiove
unueistanuing of the physical climate system anu pioviue impioveu
infoimation on climate change anu vaiiability attiibution.

18 I CHAPTER 1

While the mouel simulation anu piojection component of the next
IPCC assessment, namely CNIPS, is expecteu to be an auvance ovei past
assessments, theie aie a numbei of piocesses that waiiant bettei
unueistanuing anu moueling fiuelity. Still missing aie iealistic inteiactions
with soils, ocean chemistiy, anu ueep ocean flooi souices anu sinks, anu
piocesses. Coupleu inteiactions with glacieis anu ice sheets have yet to be
incoipoiateu, with implications on the fiuelity of futuie sea level iise
piojections on local anu iegional scales.
Illustiative of mouel shoitfalls aie futuie piojections ielateu to watei
availability in Afiica. The IPCC Fouith Assessment Repoit
13
pioviues the
latest synopsis of mouel piojections foi Afiica along with a uiscussion of
mouel limitations. To summaiize, waiming in Afiica uuiing this centuiy is
veiy likely to be laigei than the global annual mean waiming thioughout
the continent, anu in all seasons; iainfall is likely to ueciease in much of
Neuiteiianean Afiica, the noithein Sahaia, anu southein Afiica, anu
inciease in East Afiica. Bowevei, it continues to be uncleai how iainfall in
the Sahel, the uuinean Coast, anu the southein Sahaia will evolve.
In auuition to these micio- to meso-scale physical issues, on a macio- to
global-scale the ielative impoitance of changes in sea suiface tempeiatuies
anu lanu use change on iainfall is not well unueistoou. Bust anu black-
caibon aie accounteu foi in many cases but still caiiy laige unceitainties.
The continueu anu incieasing focus on vulneiability anu impacts in
the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Repoit, coupleu with the new
element of uecaual-leau pieuictions (e.g., thiity yeais fiom 2uuS), places
gieatei emphasis on iegional uownscaling mouels. While the uCNs aie
impioving theii hoiizontal iesolution, the nominal 1uu km giius aie still
much too coaise to iepiesent ciitical physical uetails in the lanuscape (e.g.,
finei topogiaphy, uetaileu iivei iouting, anu vegetation vaiiations) oi the
inteiactions of the ciiculation anu hyuiology ovei the lanuscape. To help
auuiess this gap, the uCN output, at the neeueu tempoial sampling (~ <=
six houis) anu spatial giiu specifications, is pioviueu unuei some CNIP
scenaiios that allow foi uynamical uownscaling with highei iesolution.

1S. S. Solomon, B. Qin, N. Nanning, Z. Chen, N. Naiquis, K.B. Aveiyt, N.Tignoi anu B.L.
Nillei, eus., "Summaiy foi Policymakeis," in Climote Cbonqe 2007: Tbe Pbysicol Science
Bosis, Contiibution of Woiking uioup I to the Fouith Assessment Repoit of the
Inteigoveinmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambiiuge 0niveisity Piess: Cambiiuge,
0niteu Kinguom anu New Yoik, NY, 2uu7).


Regional Climate Nouels (RCN) activity, as applieu to climate change,
has piolifeiateu in the last uecaue oi moie. In fact, as pait of the moueling
expeiimentation foi the IPCC Fifth Assessment Repoit fiamewoik, a
fiamewoik calleu the Cooiuinateu Regional Climate Bownscaling
Expeiiment (C0RBEX) has been initiateu wheieby seveial specific sub
uomains (Figuie 1-6) have been iuentifieu foi systematic RCN
uownscaling.
14
The C0RBEX effoit builus on two eailiei Euiopean effoits,
Pieuiction of Regional Scenaiios anu 0nceitainties foi Befining Euiopean
Climate Change Risks anu Effects (PR0BENCE) anu Common Ensembles
Climate Foiecast System (ENSENBLES) anu one Noith Ameiican effoit,
Noith Ameiican Regional Climate Change Assessment Piogiam
(NARCCAP) that piimaiily focuseu on these iespective continents.
In all these cases, moie than one RCN is useu to foim an ensemble of
possibilities anu account foi the unceitainties anu inuiviuual mouel
biases. RCNs aie faceu with the same challenges of mouel shoitcomings
anu evaluations of theii fiuelity as uCNs with typically the same issues:
clouus anu convection, aeiosol-iauiation-clouu inteiactions, snow anu
soil piocesses, etc. In fact, RCNs in some sense aie moie challengeu
because of theii attempt to iepiesent moie piocesses, paiticulaily those
ielateu to impacts.

Figure 1-. Sub-domains for CURDEX regional climate model
downscaling, including Africa

14. Filippo uioigi, Colin }ones anu uhassem R. Asiai, "Auuiessing climate infoimation
neeus at the iegional level: the C0RBEX fiamewoik," WorlJ Heteoroloqicol
0rqonizotion Bulletin S8:S (}uly 2uu9).

20 I CHAPTER 1

Similai to the uCN inuustiy, the moueleis aie taxeu simply by the
mouel uevelopment effoits, incluuing the numeious piocesses at a finei,
moie uetaileu level, anu aie not able to always take auvantage of new anu
sophisticateu obseivation iesouices to evaluate theii mouel anu eithei
impiove it oi quantitatively chaiacteiize its unceitainties. Noieovei, the
piocess of effectively conuucting this soit of expeiiment (e.g., seveial RCNs
using seveial uCNs foi bounuaiy conuitions) is veiy uemanuing in teims of
computational capacity anu woikfoice. The time, expeitise, anu iesouices
cuiiently available foi these soits of effoits aie not commensuiate with the
ciitical iole such mouels will play in futuie assessments.

FINDINCS UN CLIMATE MUDELS
Caibon-cycle mouels, incluuing theii inteiactions with the watei cycle anu
inteiactive vegetation mouels, aie in theii infancy.
Fuithei uevelopment is neeueu in a numbei of moueleu piocesses, e.g.,
clouu piocesses, soil moistuie, inteiactive snowpack anu vegetation
piocesses. The moueling also neeus to auuiess how this may influence
aeiosol souices; sea ice anu ice-shelf inteiactions with the ocean; anu, laige-
scale theimo-haline ciiculation in association with the uetails of ocean
veitical mixing, convection, anu hoiizontal euuies.
The influences anu feeubacks that can aiise fiom melting ice sheet anu
glaciei uiiven sea level incieases, albeuo ieuuctions, anu ocean ciiculation
mouifications aie not yet accounteu foi in the piesent-uay coupleu climate
moueling fiamewoik with significant implications on the accuiacy of
futuie sea level piojections on iegional anu local scales.
The inability to pioviue accuiate, iegional-scale, long-iange piecipitation
piojections is uiiven by continuing challenges in unueistanuing anu
iepiesenting moist physical piocesses in the atmospheie anu theii
inteiactions with aeiosols (e.g., biomass buining oi uust in the case of
Afiica) anu iauiation as well as the limitations of coaise spatial iesolutions
of climate-scale mouels.
Bespite iecent piogiess towaius impioving theii utility foi suppoiting
vulneiability anu impact assessments, cuiient climate mouels aie still
laigely ieseaich assets anu hampeieu by limitations in computational anu
peisonnel iesouices.

Incieaseu peisonnel, euucation, anu funuing iesouices foi mouel
uevelopment aie iequiieu to pioviue the neeueu moie accuiate anu iobust
climate piojections.

RECUMMENDATIUNS UN CLIMATE INFURMATIUN SYSTEM NEEDS
The Piesiuent's 0ffice of Science anu Technology Policy shoulu expanu on
the Rounutable foi Climate Infoimation Seivices to:
Befine iequiiements foi infoimation systems, catalog existing
iesouices ielevant to those iequiiements, iuentify gaps, anu
piouuce a conceptual ioaumap foi auuiessing those gaps.
Iuentify obstacles to sustaineu availability of climate infoimation
with inteinational scope.
Befine an opeiational fiamewoik foi sustaineu tianslation of
climate uata iecoius anu othei geophysical infoimation into
societal benefit metiics.
Iuentify appioaches anu mechanisms foi pioviuing sustaineu,
timely, anu actionable synthesis assessments focuseu on
ueveloping iegions anu locales beyonu the cuiient 0S focus,
incluuing options foi giowing in-countiy capacity.
The Auministiatoi of the National 0ceanic anu Atmospheiic Auministiation
shoulu:
Woik with NASA to conuuct a ieneweu stuuy of options foi
incieasing the availability of low-cost, high-ieliability launch
vehicles foi civil science satellites ciitical foi climate obseivations.
Establish a mechanism foi fiequent ieassessment (annual vs.
uecaual) of obseivational neeus iesponsive to changing scientific
unueistanuing anu impacts uue to failuies oi funuing, incluuing an
evaluation of impacts of such uevelopments to the opeiational
neeus of the Bepaitment of Befense.
The Piesiuent's 0ffice of Science anu Technology Policy shoulu woik with
the Bepaitment of Befense (B0B), Bepaitment of State (B0S), anu 0niteu
States Agency foi Inteinational Bevelopment (0SAIB) to iuentify piioiities
foi opeiational (uistinct fiom ieseaich) climate uata in piioiity iegions.

22 I CHAPTER 2

Climate Cbange
Situation and
Clobal Climate Cbange Trends
This chaptei examines tienus in global climate change to pioviue insight
into the oveiall scale anu speeu of change. This chaptei is intentionally iich in
uetaileu obseiveu uata. The puipose is to iepoit the availability of cieuible
uata on obseivable tienus. This chaptei also iuentifies some specific aieas
wheie theie is incomplete uata oi a lack of cieuible uata. All of this uata
neeus to be vieweu in the context of the limitations in obseiveu uata,
pieuictions, anu piojections uiscusseu in Chaptei 1.
Climate change is not a smooth piocess. Natuial vaiiability that aiises
fiom both inteinal vaiiability, such as the Pacific Becaual 0scillation, as
well as exteinal foicing fiom uecaual anu longei-teim vaiiations in solai
activity anu fiom episouic foicing by volcanic eiuptions can iesult in
iiiegulai, peiiouic, anuoi singulai uisiuptions in the climate system that
act as masking functions to the anthiopogenic climate signal.
lmenxlonx of current cllmute trenJx
The Inteigoveinmental Panel on Climate Change pioviues a seiies of
iepoits that uocument obseiveu climate changes anu pioject futuie
changes. The most iecent Fouith Assessment Repoit was publisheu in
2uu7.
1S
Bowevei, continueu collection of obseivational uata anu the fastei

1S. S. Solomon, B. Qin, N. Nanning, Z. Chen, N. Naiquis, K.B. Aveiyt, N. Tignoi anu
B.L. Nillei, eus., Climote Cbonqe 2007: Tbe Pbysicol Science Bosis, Contiibution of
Woiking uioup I to the Fouith Assessment Repoit of the Inteigoveinmental Panel
on Climate Change (Cambiiuge 0niveisity Piess: Cambiiuge, 0niteu Kinguom anu
New Yoik, NY, 2uu7).

CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION AND TRENDS I 23
than anticipateu iate of iecent changes have leu to seveial moie iecent
ieviews that upuate key elements of the AR4.
16
Surfuce temperuturex lncreuxlng
Between 19u6 anu 2uuS, the global aveiage suiface aii tempeiatuie
incieaseu by appioximately u.74C. The waiming tienu incieaseu towaiu
the enu of this peiiou (fiom 1979 to 2uuS), to a iate of u.17 Cuecaue.
17

The tienu fell in the peiiou 2uu6-2uu9, with a global mean tempeiatuie
iise of u.24-u.28C.
18

N0AA's most iecent analysis of global suiface tempeiatuie change
states: "ulobal tempeiatuie is iising as fast in the past uecaue as in the
piioi two uecaues, uespite yeai-to-yeai fluctuations associateu with the El
Nio-La Nia cycle of tiopical ocean tempeiatuie. Recoiu high global 12-
month iunning mean tempeiatuie foi the peiiou with instiumental uata
was ieacheu in 2u1u" (Figuie 2-1)
19
The cuiient estimate of continueu tempeiatuie inciease is
u.2Cuecaue.
20
We may be enteiing a multi-uecaue peiiou of low solai
activity that coulu give iise to a cooling effect of aiounu u.2C ovei the next
two to thiee uecaues. At the same time, atmospheiic aeiosols that have been
estimateu to ieuuce waiming by 1.1C have been uecieasing since the 199us,
slowly incieasing the amount of sunlight ieaching Eaith's suiface.
21

16. See: B.S. Ainut, N. 0. Baiingei, anu N. R. }ohnson, eus., "State of the Climate in 2uu9,"
Americon Heteoroloqicol Society Bulletin 91, no. 7 (2u1u): S1-S224; B. N. Fssel, "The
iisks of climate change: A synthesis of new scientific knowleuge since the finalization of
the IPCC Fouith Assessment Repoit (AR4)," Backgiounu note to the Woilu Bevelopment
Repoit 2u1u (ueimany: Potsuam Institute foi Climate Impact Reseaich, 2u1u); C.
Richaiuson (Chaii), Syntbesis Report from Climote Cbonqe, 6lobol Risks, Cbollenqes onJ
Becisions (Copenhagen: 0niveisity of Copenhagen, 2uu9); N. Rummukainen, et al.,
Pbysicol Climote Science since lPCC AR4: A brief upJote on new finJinqs between 2007 onJ
April 2010 (Benmaik: Banish Neteoiological Institute, 2u1u); R. van Boilanu, et al., News
in Climote Science Since lPCC 2007: Topics of interest in tbe scientific bosis of climote
cbonqe (Royal Netheilanus Neteoiological Institute (KNNI) anu otheis, 2uu9);
Netheilanus Enviionmental Assessment Agency, News in Climote Science onJ Fxplorinq
BounJories: A Policy brief on Jevelopments since tbe lPCC AR4 report in 2007, PBL
Suu114u1S (The Netheilanus: Netheilanus Enviionmental Assessment Agency, 2uu9).
17. Solomon et al., eus., (2uu7).
18. Rummukainen et al. (2u1u).
19. }. Banson, R. Rueuy, N. Sato, anu K. Lo, "ulobal Suiface Tempeiatuie Change,"
Reviews of 6eopbysics 48, Ru4uu4 (2u1u) 29 PP. Copyiight 2u1u Ameiican ueophysical
0nion. Repiouuceu by peimission of Ameiican ueophysical 0nion.
2u. Solomon et al., eus. (2uu7) anu Netheilanus Enviionmental Assessment Agency (2uu9).
21. Solomon et al., eus. (2uu7).

24 I CHAPTER 2

Figure 2-1. Twelve montb running mean
Oceun temperuture lx lncreuxlng
The ocean tempeiatuie has a majoi impact on maiine ecosystems, anu
the associateu theimal expansion plays a iole in global sea level iise.
Incieases in sea suiface tempeiatuie (SST) have been linkeu to incieases
in stoim activity in the Atlantic. Waiming of the Inuian 0cean appeais to
have been a significant factoi in the inciease of uiought in East Afiica.
22
A southwaiu shift of the waimest SSTs in the Atlantic has likely contiibuteu
to uiought in West Afiica.
23

The heat content in the uppei 7uu meteis of the ocean incieaseu ovei
the peiiou 1969-2uuS by moie than Su

peicent.
24
The heat content then
ieacheu a plateau in the yeais 2uu4-2uu8 (an eailiei iepoiteu cooling has
been assigneu to two systematic biases in the ocean tempeiatuie uata
useu) (Figuie 2-2).

22. S. Basteniath, B. Polzin, anu C. Nutai, "Biagnosing the Bioughts anu Floous in
Equatoiial East Afiica uuiing Boieal Autumn 2uuS-u8," }ournol of Climote 2S (2u1u):
81S-817, B0I: 1u.117S2uu9}CLISu94.1.
2S. A. Bai, "Biought unuei global waiming: a ieview," Climote Cbonqe 2, no. 1(2u11).
4S-6S, Boi: 1u.1uu2wcc.81.
24. van Boilanu et al. (2uu9).


Figure 2-2. Ucean beat content anomalies {0-700 meters], global
{)anuary 1955 to Marcb 2010]
Figuie 2-S shows changes in global SSTs. In geneial, measuiements
inuicate that waiming is gieatei in the Noithein Bemispheie. The Noith
Sea anu the Baltic Sea, in paiticulai, have expeiienceu an unpieceuenteu
waiming tienu since the miu-198us in all seasons.
25
Tempeiatuies in
summeis since 198S have incieaseu at neaily tiiple the global waiming
iate anu two to five times fastei than those in othei seasons. In the
Southein Bemispheie, each 1C iise in global aveiage tempeiatuie
boosteu Inuian 0cean SSTs by about 1.SC uuiing the past few uecaues.
26

2S. B.R. Nackenzie anu B .Schieuek, "Baily ocean monitoiing since the 186u's shows
iecoiu waiming of noithein Euiopean seas," 6lobol Cbonqe Bioloqy 1S, no. 7 (2uu7):
1SSS-1S47.
26. A.P. Williams anu C. A. Funk, "A westwaiu extension of the waim pool leaus to a
westwaiu extension of the Walkei ciiculation, uiying eastein Afiica," Climote Bynomics
(2u11), Boi:1u.1uu7suuS82-u1u-u984-y.

26 I CHAPTER 2

Figure 2-3. Clobal Uptimum Interpolation {UI] SST anomalies {UI.v2]
{November 1981 to September 2010]
27

0reenlunJ unJ Anturctlc lce xheetx loxlng muxx
0bseivational uata inuicate that melting lanu ice contiibutes
significantly moie to sea level iise than theimal expansion of the oceans.
0vei the last five yeais, foi example, lanu ice was iesponsible foi 8u
peicent of the obseiveu sea level iise ovei the past five yeais.
28

uiavitational measuiements fiom the uiavity Recoveiy anu Climate
Expeiiment satellites inuicate that the uieenlanu ice sheet is losing mass
at an acceleiating iate.
29
Buiing the most iecent eleven summeis melting
has been gieatei than the aveiage of the available time seiies (197S to
2uu7). Nelting in the summei of 2uu7 establisheu a new iecoiu, which
was 6u peicent above the pievious high in 1998.
30
Between eaily 2uu2

27. Sep 2u1u minus Aug 2u1u = -u.u28C.
28. S. Rahmstoif, "A new view on sea level iise," Noture Reports Climote Cbonqe 4
(2u1u): 44-4S.
29. See: }.L. Chen, C. R. Wilson, anu B. B. Tapley, "Satellite giavity measuiements confiim
acceleiateu melting of uieenlanu ice sheet," Science S1S (2uu6): 19S8-196u; B.C. Slobbe,
R.C. Linuenbeigh anu P. Bitmai, "Estimation of volume change iates of uieenlanu's ice
sheet foim ICEsat uata using oveilapping footpiints," Remote Sensinq of Fnvironment 112
(2uu8): 42u4-421S; I. velicogna, "Incieasing iates of ice mass loss fiom the uieenlanu
anu Antaictic ice sheets ievealeu by uRACE," 6eopbysicol Reseorcb letters S6 (2uu9):
L19SuS, Boi:1u.1u292uu9uLu4u222; anu van Boilanu et al. (2uu9).
Su. T.L. Note, "uieenlanu suiface melt tienus 197S-2uu7: Eviuence of a laige inciease in
2uu7," 6eopbysicol Reseorcb letters S4, no. 22 (2uu7).

anu eaily 2uu9, the uieenlanu ice sheet is estimateu to have an
accumulateu ice loss of 2SuSu gigaton (ut)yeai.
31

Satellite obseivations show that the Antaictic ice sheet as a whole is
also losing mass at an acceleiating iate. The loss is most significant in the
West Antaictic wheie waiming has exceeueu u.1Cuecaue ovei the past
fifty yeais.
32
Ten majoi ice shelves collapseu in the last uecaue, anu the
Wilkins ice biiuge faileu in spiing 2uu9. Losses along the Bellingshausen
anu Amunusen seas incieaseu the ice sheet loss by S9 peicent in ten
yeais.
33
In the Peninsula, losses incieaseu by 14u peicent.
34
In contiast,
theie weie small glaciei losses in Wilkes Lanu anu glaciei gains at the
mouths of the Filchnei anu Ross ice shelves.
35

0luclerx unJ xnow cover Jecreuxlng
Nountain glacieis seive as impoitant watei ieseivoiis in many
countiies. Asiue fiom contiibuting to global sea level iise, glaciei melting
can iesult in neai-teim floouing, incluuing that fiom the outbieak of
glacial lakes, followeu by watei scaicity. ulacieis anu snow covei also
ieflect solai iauiation back into the atmospheie, so uecieases in the
suiface aiea feeu back into incieaseu suiface waiming.
The aveiage annual melting iate of mountain glacieis has uoubleu since
2uuu compaieu to the alieauy acceleiateu melting iates obseiveu in the two
uecaues befoie. The yeai 2uu6 establisheu a new iecoiu foi annual mass loss
of the iefeience glacieis unuei long-teim obseivation.
36
The mass lost fiom

S1. B. Wouteis et al., "uRACE obseives small-scale mass loss in uieenlanu," 6eopbysicol
Reseorcb letters SS (2uu8), L2uSu1, Boi:1u.1u292uu8uLuS4816.
S2. E.}. Steig , B.P. Schneiuei, S.B. Rutheifoiu, N.E. Nann, }.C. Comiso, anu B.T. Schinuell,
"Waiming of the Antaictic ice-sheet suiface since the 19S7 Inteinational ueophysical
Yeai," Noture 4S7, no. 7228 (2uu9): 4S9-462, Boi:1u.1uS8natuieu7669, PNIB
191S8794.
SS. E. Rignot, }.L. Bambei, N. R. van uen Bioeke, C. Bavis, Y. Li, W. }. van ue Beig, anu E. van
Neijgaaiu, "Recent Antaictic ice mass loss fiom iauai inteifeiometiy anu iegional climate
moueling,"Noture 6eoscience 1, no. 2 (2uu7): 1u6-11u; anu van Boilanu et al. (2uu9).
S4. Rignot et al. (2uu8).
SS. Rignot et al. (2uu8).
S6. 0niteu Nations Enviionment Piogiamme, Woilu ulaciei Nonitoiing Seivice, 6lobol
6locier Cbonqes: Iocts onJ Iiqures (2uu8).

28 I CHAPTER 2

glacieis anu small ice caps in iecent yeais is estimateu to be of a similai
magnituue as the total mass loss of the laige ice sheets (Figuie 2-4).
37

Figure 2-4. Mean cumulative mass balance of all reported glaciers
{blue line] and tbe reference glaciers {red line]
Arctlc xeu lce extent Jecreuxlng, thlnnlng lncreuxlng
The potential foi access to new eneigy iesouices anu shipping ioutes
has maue changes in Aictic sea ice anu is one of the most stuuieu aspects
of climate change. The Aictic sea ice also iegulates the exchange of eneigy
between the ocean anu atmospheie anu between Eaith anu Space; thus, its
loss influences tempeiatuie, atmospheiic ciiculation, anu weathei pattein
in seveial ways.
Recent stuuies pieuict that the Aictic will be fiee of summei sea ice
sometime between 2uSu anu 2u8u, eailiei than pieviously anticipateu.
38

Since 1979, the Aictic sea ice extent has been ueclining at a iate of eleven
peicent pei uecaue.
39
Ice coveiage in summei 2uu7 ieacheu a iecoiu
minimum of 4.S million km
2
, a uecline in extent by 42 peicent ielative to

S7. F. N. Neiei, et al., "ulacieis uominate eustatic sea-level iise in the 21st centuiy,"
Science S17 (2uu7): 1u64-1u67.
S8. See: }. Bo, et al., "Septembei sea ice covei in the Aictic 0cean piojecteu to vanish
by 21uu," Noture 6eoscience 2 (2uu9): S41-S4S, Boi:1u.1uS8ngeo467; anu N. Wang
anu }.E. 0veilanu, "A sea ice fiee summei Aictic within Su yeais," 6eopbysicol Reseorcb
letters S6 (2uu9), Lu7Su2.
S9. Netheilanus Enviionmental Assessment Agency (2uu9).

conuitions in the 198us.
40
This iemains an all-time low. The ieuuction in
the maximum wintei extent is smallei, showing a ueciease of 2.9 peicent
pei uecaue.
41
Figuie 2-S shows a time seiies of the sea ice extent foi
Febiuaiy anu Septembei.
The aveiage thickness of the sea ice has also uecieaseu, incieasing the
vulneiability to fuithei changes. Thick peiennial ice has essentially
uisappeaieu, anu S8 peicent of the multi-yeai ice now consists of
ielatively young two- anu thiee-yeai-olu ice, compaieu to SS peicent in
the miuule of the 198us.
42
Submaiine sonai measuiements coveiing the
cential ~S8 peicent of the Aictic 0cean show an oveiall aveiage wintei ice
thickness of 1.9 m in 2uu8, compaieu to S.6 m in 198u.

Figure 2-5. Decrease of Arctic ice
Figuie 2-6 shows the most iecent uata on annual minimum sea ice
extent. Ice extent foi Septembei 2u1u was the thiiu lowest in the satellite

4u. }.C. Comiso et al., "Acceleiateu uecline in the Aictic sea ice covei," 6eopbysicol
Reseorcb letters SS (2uu8), Lu17uS, Boi:1u.1u292uu7uLuS1972.
41. }. Stioeve, N. N. Bollanu, W. Neiei, T. Scambos, anu N. Seiieze, "Aictic sea ice
uecline: Fastei than foiecast" 6eopbysicol Reseorcb letters S4 (2uu7): 9Su1.
42. Netheilanus Enviionmental Assessment Agency (2uu9).

30 I CHAPTER 2

iecoiu foi the month, behinu 2uu7 (lowest) anu 2uu8 (seconu lowest).
The lineai iate of uecline of Septembei ice extent ovei the peiiou 1979-
2u1u is now 11.S peicent pei uecaue ielative to the 1979 to 2uuu aveiage.
Changing atmospheiic patteins, such as the Noith Atlantic 0scillation
ciiculation, may leau to a paitial shoit-teim iecoveiy of Aictic sea ice
uepenuing on the effect of incieaseu waiming.

Figure 2-. Average montbly Arctic sea ice extent, 1979 to 2010, area
of seasonally frozen ground is decreasing
Thawing of fiozen giounu can have majoi impacts on infiastiuctuie
anu tianspoitation. 0f moie significance to the global climate, the piocess
of exposing oiganic caibon to miciobial uecomposition iesults in
emissions of caibon uioxiue, methane, anu nitious oxiue. This positive
feeuback cycle is significant because methane is thiity (ioughly) times
stiongei than C02 in teims of its shoit teim waiming potential. Although
not as stiong in shoit teim effect, N20 is impoitant because it is a
paiticulaily long-liveu gieenhouse gas.
Thawing is occuiiing at a fastei iate than anticipateu. Foi example, the
maximum aiea coveieu by seasonally fiozen giounu has uecieaseu by
about 7 peicent (up to 1S peicent in spiing) in the Noithein Bemispheie
since 19uu.
43
The tempeiatuie at the top of the Aictic peimafiost layei has

4S. K.E. Thointon, "An upuate on human-inuuceu climate change," Testimony of Bi. Kevin E.
Tienbeith befoie the 0S Senate Committee on Enviionment anu Public Woiks, }uly 22, 2uu8.

incieaseu by up to SC since the 198us.
44
The expansion of Sibeiian thaw
lakes in iesponse to Aictic waiming has leu to an estimateu S8 peicent
inciease in methane emissions, laigely fiom thawing peimafiost. Cuiient
estimates of futuie emissions fiom these lakes exceeu pievious estimates
by a factoi of five oi moie.
45
Emissions have also been uetecteu in
unexpecteu iegions, such as fiom the submeigeu wetlanus of the East
Sibeiian Aictic Shelf.
Figuie 2-7 shows the most iecent uata on incieasing tempeiatuies in
monitoieu peimafiost sites in the Noithein Bemispheie.
46
Piojections
suggest that a fuithei ueciease in extent of Su to Su peicent is possible by
miu-centuiy.
47

Figure 2-7. Mean annual ground temperatures between 10 and 20 m
for boreboles in tbe circumpolar nortbern permafrost regions

44. Thointon (2uu8).
4S. K.N. Waltei, S. A. Zimov, }. P. Chanton, B. veibyla, anu F. S. Chapin III, "Nethane
bubbling fiom Sibeiian thaw lakes as a positive feeuback to climate waiming," Noture
44S (2uu6): 71-7S.
46. v.E. Romanovsky, S.L. Smith, S. L. anu B.B. Chiistiansen, "Peimafiost theimal state
in the polai Noithein Bemispheie uuiing the inteinational polai yeai 2uu7-2uu9: a
synthesis," Permofrost onJ Periqlociol Processes 21 (2u1u): 1u6-116, Boi:
1u.1uu2ppp.689.
47. "Waiming Woilu: Impacts by uegiee," baseu on the National Reseaich Council
iepoit, Climote Stobilizotion Torqets: Fmissions, Concentrotions, onJ lmpocts over
BecoJes to Hillennio (Washington, B.C.: The National Acauemies Piess, 2u1u).

32 I CHAPTER 2

Aftei a peiiou of slowuown in the giowth of atmospheiic methane
concentiations, measuiements since 2uu7 show a global inciease.
48
Estimates of the caibon stoieu in global peimafiost have uoubleu in the
last few yeais, putting the peimafiost caibon stock at an equivalent of
twice the atmospheiic caibon pool.
49
Potentially, the amount of caibon
ieleaseu uuiing the 21st centuiy coulu leau to accumulateu emissions of
aiounu Su-1uu ut Caibon (C) by 21uu.
Su
Alteinative estimates, baseu on
expeiimental Aictic uata, suggest the potential foi thawing peimafiost to
ielease an auuitional S8-1uu utC pei uegiee of waiming.
51

Fewei uata aie available on iecent anu piojecteu ieleases of
gieenhouse gases fiom methane hyuiates that can be founu in polai
continental seuimentaiy iocks anu oceanic seuiment at watei uepths
gieatei than Suu m. Nethane hyuiates occui when laige amounts of
methane aie tiappeu within a ciystal stiuctuie of watei, foiming a soliu
similai to ice. The size of these ieseivoiis is unceitain.
More frequent unJ longer Jroughtx
Incieaseu uiying in the tiopics anu subtiopics uue to highei
tempeiatuies anu uecieaseu piecipitation have incieaseu global uiy aieas,
as inuicateu in Figuie 2-8.
52

The peicentage of global lanu suiface in uiought has incieaseu by S.4
peicent pei uecaue in the peiiou 19S2-1998.
53
In teims of the Palmei
Biought Seveiity Inuex, aieas in seveie anu extieme uiought have moie
than uoubleu since the 197us, with a laige jump in the eaily 198us uue to

48. N. Rigby et al., "Reneweu giowth of atmospheiic methane," 6eopbysicol Reseorcb
letters SS (2uu8), L228uS, Boi:1u.1u292uu8uLuS6uS7.
49. E. A. u. Schuui, }. Bockheim, }. u. Canauell, E. Euskiichen, C. B. Fielu, S. v.
uoiyachkin, S. Bagemann, P. Kuhiy, P. N. Lafleui, B. Lee, u. Nazhitova, F. E. Nelson, A.
Rinke, v. E. Romanovsky, N. Shiklomanov, C. Tainocai, S. venevsky, }. u. vogel, anu S. A.
Zimov, "vulneiability of peimafiost caibon to climate change: Implications foi the
global caibon cycle," BioScience S8, no. 8 (2uu8): 7u1-714, Boi:1u.1641BS8u8u7.
Su. Rummukainen et al. (2u1u).
S1. van Boilanu et al. (2uu9) citing Boiiepaal et al. (2uu9), full iefeience not available.
S2 A. Bai (2u11).
SS. E.}. Buike, S.}. Biown, anu N. Chiistiuis, "Noueling the Recent Evolution of ulobal
Biought anu Piojections foi the Twenty-Fiist Centuiy with the Bauley Centie Climate
Nouel," }ournol of EyJrometeoroloqy 7 (2uu6): 111S-112S.

an El Nio Southein 0scillation-inuuceu piecipitation ueciease anu a
subsequent expansion piimaiily uue to suiface waiming.
54

Figure 2-8. Time series of global dry areas as a percentage of tbe
global {0S-75N] land area
Figuie 2-9 shows which iegions have expeiienceu the laigest change
in uioughts ovei the last fifty yeais anu the piojections foi the next fifty
yeais. These piojections inuicate how seveie the pioblem is expecteu to
become, paiticulaily acioss the tiopics anu subtiopics. Baseu on uecieases
in soil moistuie, the numbei of shoit-teim (foui to six month uuiation)
uioughts is expecteu to uouble fiom the miu 2uth centuiy to the enu of the
21st centuiy. Long-teim, moie than twelve month uuiation, uioughts aie
piojecteu to become thiee times moie common.
55
0sing a uiffeient mouel

S4. A. Bai, K.E. Tienbeith, anu T. Qian, "A global uata set of Palmei Biought Seveiity
Inuex foi 187u-2uu2: Relationship with soil moistuie anu effects of suiface waiming,"
}ournol of EyJrometeoroloqy S (2uu4): 1117-11Su.
SS. }. Sheffielu, 6lobol Jrouqbt in tbe 20tb onJ 21st centuries: Anolysis of retrospective
simulotions onJ future projections of soil moisture, PhB thesis (Piinceton, New }eisey:
Piinceton 0niveisity, 2uu8).

34 I CHAPTER 2

anu lowei emissions scenaiios, the piopoition of the lanu suiface in
extieme uiought is pieuicteu to inciease fiom 1 peicent foi the piesent
uay to Su peicent by the enu of the twenty-fiist centuiy
.56

Figure 2-9. Ubserved and pro|ected cbanges in drougbt, in terms of
mean annual ad|usted Palmer Drougbt Severity Index {22-CCM
ensemble, SRES scenario A1B]
57

Increuxlng frequency of heuvy preclpltutlon eventx,
flooJlng, unJ lunJxllJex
ulobally, theie has been no statistically significant oveiall inciease oi
ueciease in piecipitation, although tienus have vaiieu wiuely by iegion
anu ovei time.
58
Figuie 2-1u shows global piecipitation anomalies.
Long-teim tienus ovei the 2u
th
centuiy show a geneial pattein of
piecipitation incieases at highei noithein latituues anu a uiying in the
tiopics anu subtiopics ovei lanu. Significantly incieaseu piecipitation
has been obseiveu in eastein paits of Noith anu South Ameiica,
noithein Euiope, anu noithein anu cential Asia. Becieases have
occuiieu in the Sahel, the Neuiteiianean, southein Afiica, anu paits of
southein Asia. Spatial anu tempoial vaiiability have incieaseu ovei the
centuiy. Incieases in extieme piecipitation have been obseiveu even

S6. Buike et al. (2uu6).
S7. The IPCC Special Repoit on Emissions Scenaiios (SRES) scenaiios aie piojections of
futuie gieenhouse gas emissions useu in climate mouels. The scenaiios aie baseu on
stoiylines, each of which makes uiffeient assumptions about futuie uemogiaphic,
economic, anu technological uiiving foices of gieenhouse gas anu sulphui emissions.
S8. Ainut et al. (2uu9).

wheie oveiall piecipitation has uecieaseu,
59
with the amount of iain
falling uuiing the heaviest piecipitation events incieasing by S-1u
peicent pei uegiee of waiming.
60

Figure 2-10. Clobal precipitation anomalies
61

The numbei of gieat inlanu floou catastiophes fiom 1996-2uuS
uoubleu, compaieu to 19Su anu 198u, anu has been associateu with an
incieasing fiequency of heavy piecipitation events.
62
The contiibuting
effects of incieasing human impact on the enviionment anu incieasing
exposuie of people anu piopeity to floou uamage aie unceitain.
Piojections of changes in the numbei anu intensity of futuie floous
aie scaice. 0ne appioach is to look at the exceeuance of peak volumes in
iivei flow. Figuie 2-11 shows how one hunuieu-yeai peak volumes of

S9. Tienbeith (2uu8).
6u. Ainut et al. (2u1u).
61. Beteimineu using the uBCN-Nonthly uataset foi the following S-month seasons:
(a) Bec 2uu8 to Feb 2uu9, (b) Nai to Nay 2uu9, (c) }un to Aug 2uu9, anu (u) Sep to Nov
2uu9. Seasonal anomalies weie ueteimineu ielative to the 1961-9u means, with at
least two-thiius (66%) of the yeais without missing uata iequiieu uuiing the base
peiiou. B. S. Ainut, N. 0. Baiingei, anu N. R. }ohnson, eus., "State of the Climate in
2uu9," Bulletin of tbe Americon Heteoroloqicol Society 91, no. 7 (2u1u): S1-S224.
(c)Ameiican Neteoiological Society. Repiinteu with peimission.
62. v. Alavian, B.N. Qauuumi, Eiic Bickson, S.N. Biez, A. v. Banilenko, R.F. Biiji, u. Puz, C.
Pizaiio, N. }acobsen, anu B. Blankespooi, Woter onJ Climote Cbonqe: 0nJerstonJinq tbe
Risks onJ Hokinq Climote-smort lnvestment Becisions (The Woilu Bank, Novembei 2uu9).

36 I CHAPTER 2

monthly iivei flow aie likely to be exceeueu moie fiequently with a
quauiupling of C02 in fifteen of sixteen laige iivei basins. In some aieas,
the cuiient hunuieu-yeai floou is piojecteu to occui as fiequently as
eveiy two to five yeais.
63

Figure 2-11. Pro|ected percent cbange in bigb flows {floods] for 2030
64

Lanusliue (incluuing muusliue) activity at national anu iegional scales
has intensifieu. As with floous, it is uifficult to sepaiate the effects of
changes in extieme piecipitation fiom those human impacts on the
enviionment. The high numbei of small to meuium-scale lanusliues, which
aie wiuespieau in many paits of the woilu, cause high costs to human
society, in laige pait uue to the economic, political, cultuial, anu
geogiaphical baiiieis to effective lanusliue iisk ieuuction stiategies that
exist in many ueveloping countiies.
65

6S. Alavian et al. (2uu9).
64. Taking the flow that is exceeueu 1u% of the time (q1u), which means theie is a
9u% chance in each time peiiou of a flow lowei than this. A ueciease in q1u means that
the likelihoou of high flows anu floous will inciease. The ielative changes fiom
histoiical values pioviue an "inuicatoi" of the piojecteu change in floous.
6S. F. uutiiiez et al., "Recent auvances in lanusliue investigation: Issues anu
peispectives," uuest euitoiial, 6eomorpboloqy 124 (2u1u): 9S-1u1.

Fxtreme temperuturex more common
Elevateu tempeiatuies have both uiiect anu inuiiect impacts on many
impoitant biological systems. Those most commonly uiscusseu aie
impacts on human health anu agiicultuial giowing seasons.
Since 19Su, elevateu tempeiatuies have incieaseu by between 1C anu
SC, significantly moie than the change in aveiage tempeiatuie.
66
Nouels
using moueiate emissions scenaiios, Special Repoit on Emissions Scenaiios
A1B, pioject that hunuieu-yeai ietuin tempeiatuie values will exceeu a
uangeiously high level of SuC in uensely populateu aieas of Inuia, the
Niuule East, Noith Afiica, the Sahel, Austialia, anu equatoiial anu
subtiopical South Ameiica by 21uu.
67

0thei iecent ieseaich combines obseivation anu moueling uata to
suggest a high piobability (>9u peicent) that giowing season tempeiatuies
in the tiopics anu subtiopics by the enu of the twenty-fiist centuiy will
exceeu the most extieme seasonal tempeiatuies iecoiueu fiom 19uu to
2uu6. In tempeiate iegions, the hottest seasons on iecoiu will iepiesent the
futuie noim in many locations.
1roplcul cyclone lntenxlty lncreuxlng
The consequences of incieaseu cyclone intensity aie potentially
seveie, paiticulaily when coupleu with sea level iise, anu coulu affect
coastal communities aiounu the woilu.
The uestiuctive powei of tiopical cyclones (stoims, huiiicanes anu
typhoons) has incieaseu since 197u, owing to incieases in intensity anu
uuiation, as much as 7u peicent in the Atlantic anu Pacific. The changes in
the powei uestiuctive inuex aie highly coiielateu with SSTs in the ciitical

66. S.}. Biown, }. Caesai, anu C. A. T. Feiio, "ulobal changes in extieme uaily
tempeiatuie since 19Su," }ournol of 6eopbysicol Reseorcb-Atmospberes 11S (2uu8).
67. A Steil et al., "When can we expect extiemely high suiface tempeiatuies?" 6eopbysics
Reseorcb letters SS (2uu8), L147uS, Boi:1u.1u292uu8uLuS4u71.

38 I CHAPTER 2

iegion wheie tiopical cyclones foim.
68
0bseivational uata inuicate that a
1C iise in SSTs can inciease suiface winu speeu S msec, potentially
uoubling the numbei of Categoiy S cyclones (Figuie 2-12).
Theie is agieement that climate change is likely (>66 peicent
piobability) to inciease the occuiience of moie intense cyclones, although
unceitainty iemains as to whethei this is the iesult of natuial vaiiability in
the system oi waimei tempeiatuies.

Figure 2-12. Nortb Atlantic tropical cyclones
69

68. See: K. Emanuel, "Incieasing uestiuctiveness of tiopical cyclones ovei the past Su
yeais,"Noture 4S6 (2uuSa): 686-688; B. W. Lanusea, B. A. Baipei, K. Boaiau anu }.A.
Knaff, "Can we uetect tienus in extieme tiopical cyclones." Science S1S (2uu6): 4S2-4S4;
K. E. Tienbeith anu B.}. Shea, "Atlantic huiiicanes anu natuial vaiiability in 2uuS,"
6eopbysicol Reseorcb letters SS (2uu6), L127u4 1u.1u292uu6uLu262S6; anu P.}.
Webstei, u. }. Bollanu, }.A. Cuiiy, anu B.-R. Chang, "Changes in tiopical cyclone numbei,
uuiation, anu intensity in a waiming enviionment," Science Su9 (2uuS): 1844-1846.
69. (A) The numbeis of Noith Atlantic tiopical cyclones foi each maximum winu speeu
shown on the hoiizontal axis. (B) The piopoitional inciease by cyclone (huiiicane)
categoiy (1 - least intense; S - most intense) aiising fiom incieases in maximum winu
speeus of 1, S anu S ms.


Figure 2-13. Tropical Atlantic SSTs, tropical storms, and US landfall
series
70

The scientific community similaily agiees that the number of cyclones is
unlikely to inciease. Bowevei, a iecent stuuy that accounteu foi the numbei
of Noith Atlantic cyclones likely to have been misseu by the obseiving
system in the pie-satellite eia finus a significant incieasing tienu foi 19uu-
2uu6 of ~4.2 stoims pei centuiy in tiopical Atlantic stoims (Figuie 2-1S).
The extent to which a minimum in 191u-19Su influenceu this tienu is
unceitain, but this woik meiits fuithei consiueiation.
71

MlJ-lutltuJe wlnJ putternx unJ xtorm truckx xhlftlng
polewurJ
Niu-latituue westeily winus have incieaseu since 19Su, but it iemains
unceitain whethei this is uue to waimei tempeiatuies oi uecaual-scale

7u. The S-yeai iunning mean noimalizeu Atlantic main uevelopment iegion SST
inuices fiom thiee uiffeient ieconstiuctions of SST oveilaiu on Atlantic tiopical cyclone
counts. Blue cuives aie the thiee main uevelopment iegion SST ieconstiuctions. The
heavy ieu cuive is the base-case tiopical cyclone count. The light ieu cuive is the
unaujusteu tiopical cyclone count. The oiange cuives aie the 0S lanu falling tiopical
stoims anu huiiicane seiies counts fiom the Noith Atlantic huiiicane uatabase.
71. u.A. vecchi anu T.R. Knutson, "0n Estimates of Bistoiical Noith Atlantic Tiopical
Cyclone Activity," }ournol of Climote 21 (2uu8): SS8u-S6uu.

40 I CHAPTER 2

fluctuations.
72
Theie is wiue agieement on a polewaiu shift in stoim
tiacks.
73
Any such change leaus to changes in iegions affecteu by stoim-
ielateu stiong winus anu heavy piecipitation, as well as high waves anu
stoim suiges.
74
Seu level lx rlxlng
Aftei the last glacial maximum about twenty-thousanu yeais ago,
global sea level iose by moie than 12u m. The iate of iise sloweu uown to
a steauy iate of u.2S mmyeai befoie the stait of the 2u
th
centuiy.
75
ulobal
aveiage sea level iose at an aveiage iate of 1.8u.S mmyeai uuiing the
peiiou 1961-2uuS, incieasing to S.2 mmyeai fiom 199S to eaily 2uu6.
76

Satellite measuiements of sea level iise in moie iecent yeais show no
majoi change, with an aveiage iate of inciease aiounu S mmyeai.
77

Incieaseu unueistanuing of feeuback cycles anu glaciei uynamics has
iesulteu in uiamatic incieases in piojections of futuie sea level iise,
compaieu to that given in AR4. Figuie 2-14 compaies the iesults of these
stuuies to the AR4 piojection.
78
It is incieasingly piobable that global sea
level iise will exceeu 1 m by 21uu.
79

72. See: Rummukainen et al. (2u1u); 0. Loptien et al., "Cyclone life cycle chaiacteiistics
ovei the Noithein Bemispheie in coupleu uCNs," Climote Bynomics S1 (2uu8): Su7-
SS2, Boi:1u.1uu7suuS82-uu7-uSSS-S; anu L. Bengtsson et al., "Will extiatiopical
stoims intensify in a waimei climate." }ournol of Climote 22 (2uu9): 2276-2Su1,
Boi:1u.117S2uu8}CLI2678.1.
7S. See: }.B. Yin, "A consistent polewaiu shift of the stoim tiacks in simulations of 21st
centuiy climate," 6eopbysicol Reseorcb letters S2 (2uuS), L187u1,
Boi:1u.1u292uuSuLu2S684; anu u. uastienau anu B.}. Souen, "Nouel piojecteu
changes of extieme winu events in iesponse to global waiming," 6eopbysicol Reseorcb
letters S6 (2uu9), L1u81u, Boi:1u.1u292uu9uLuS7Suu.
74. See: E.P. Salath }i, "Influences of a shift in Noith Pacific stoim tiacks on westein
Noith Ameiican piecipitation unuei global waiming," 6eopbysicol Reseorcb letters SS
(2uu6), L1982u, Boi:1u.1u292uu6uLu26882; anu }. }iang, anu W. Peiiie, "Climate
change effects on Noith Atlantic cyclones," }ournol of 6eopbysicol Reseorcb letters 11S
(2uu8), Bu91u2, Boi:1u.1u292uu7}Buu8749.
7S. Riley Buian. Piesentation to the BSB Task Foice, }uly 2u1u. }et Piopulsion Laboiatoiy.
76. See: Solomon et al., eus. (2uu7) anu Tienbeith (2uu8).
77. A. Cazenave, K. Bominh., S. uuinehut, E. Beithiei, W. Llovel, u. Ramilien, N. Ablain, anu
u. Lainicol, "Sea level buuget ovei 2uuS-2uu8. A ieevaluation fiom uRACE space
giavimetei, satellite altimetiy anu Aigo," 6lobol onJ Plonetory Cbonqe 6S (2uu9): 8S-88.
78. S. Rahmstoif, "A new view on sea level iise," Noture Reports Climote Cbonqe 4
(2u1u): 44-4S.
79. }.T. 0veipeck anu }.L.Weiss, "Piojections of futuie sea level becoming moie uiie,"
ProceeJinqs of tbe Notionol AcoJemy of Sciences 1u6 (2uu9): 21461-21462,
Boi:1u1u7Spnas.u9128781u7


Figure 2-14. Estimates of twenty-first century sea level rise from
semi-empirical models as compared to tbe IPCC AR4
Croxxcuttlng polntx
Ineitia in the climate system means that we aie committeu to an
auuitional iise in tempeiatuie (u.4C to u.6C) compaiable to that
expeiienceu in the 2uth centuiy even if gieenhouse gas emissions
ceaseu touay.
80
The auuitional waiming is laigei when feeuback
cycles aie consiueieu.
An inciease of moie than 2C is commonly citeu as having seiious
impacts on the human habitat. It is expecteu to exceeu this limit in
the next few uecaues. Cuiient best estimates suggest that if all
emission ieuuction effoits iegisteieu unuei the Copenhagen
Accoiu, anu subsequently captuieu in the Cancun Agieements, aie
fully-ueliveieu, global aveiage tempeiatuie is still likely to iise by
S-4C by 21uu.
81

8u. Neehl et al., "Bow much moie waiming anu sea level iise." Science Su7 (2uuS)
1769-1772.
81. N. Nabey, N., }. uulleuge, B. Finel, anu K. Silveithoine. Beqrees of Risk: Befininq o
Risk Honoqement Iromework for Climote Security (Lonuon, 0K: Thiiu ueneiation
Enviionmentalism Ltu, Febiuaiy 2u11).

42 I CHAPTER 2

Some gieenhouse gases aie long-liveu. Changes in suiface
tempeiatuie, piecipitation, anu sea level aie laigely iiieveisible foi
moie than one thousanu yeais aftei emissions cease.
82

Sea level iise will not stop in 21uu. Changes in ocean heat content
will continue to affect sea level iise foi seveial centuiies at least.
Nelting anu uynamic ice loss in Antaictica anu uieenlanu will also
continue foi centuiies.
8S
Theie aie a numbei of ciitical thiesholus,
oi tipping points, at which a ielatively small auuitional foicing
inuuces an abiupt change in the iesponse of some laige-scale
components of the Eaith system. Figuie 2-1S pioviues the global
tempeiatuies estimateu foi tipping points of the most impoitant
subset of components.
84
Futuie policy-ielevant tipping elements in
the climate system anu estimates of the global waiming (above
piesent) that coulu cause theii contiol to ieach a ciitical thiesholu.
The paleoclimate iecoiu shows seveial peiious wheie abiupt changes
occuiieu. At the enu of the Youngei Biyas (11,Suu yeais ago), tempeiatuie
in cential uieenlanu jumpeu to about 1SC in a single uecaue.

82. See: Solomon et al. (2uu9); B. Aichei anu v. Biovkin, "The millennial atmospheiic
lifetime of anthiopogenic C02," Climotic Cbonqe 9u, no. S (2uu8): 28S-297; B.B.
Natthews anu K. Calueiia, "Stabilizing climate iequiies neai zeio emissions,"
6eopbysicol Reseorcb letters SS (2uu8), Lu47uS; anu N. Eby, K. Zickfelu, A.
Nontenegio, B. Aichei, K. }. Neissnei, anu A. }. Weavei, "Lifetime of anthiopogenic
climate change: millennial time scales of potential C02 anu suiface tempeiatuie
peituibations," }ournol of Climote 22 (2uu9): 2Su1-2S11.
8S. See: u.K. Plattnei, "Long-teim commitment of C02 emissions on the global caibon
cycle anu climate," I0P Confeience Seiies: Eaith anu Enviionmental Sciences 6 (2uu9).
u42uu8. available online at: http:www.iop.oigE}toc17SS-1S1S64; anu S.
Solomon, u.K. Plattnei, R. Knutti, anu P. Fiieulingstein, "Iiieveisible climate change uue
to caibon uioxiue emissions," ProceeJinqs of tbe Notionol AcoJemy of Sciences 1u6
(2uu9): 17u4-17u9.
84. T.N. Lenton anu B.}. Schellnhubei, "Tipping the scales," Noture Reports Climote
Cbonqe 1 (2uu7): 97-98.


Figure 2-15. Potential policy-relevant tipping elements tbat could be
triggered by global warming tbis century, witb sbading indicating
tbeir uncertain tbresbolds.
85

FINDINCS UN CLIMATE TRENDS
0bseivational uata inuicate that changes in the climate system aie
continuing at a fastei iate than iepoiteu in the IPCC AR4 (2uu7). The iate
of change in lanu anu sea suiface tempeiatuies ovei the 21
st
centuiy is
expecteu to at least uouble that of

the 2u
th
centuiy.
The consequences of continueu changes necessitate a iisk management
appioach to climate-ielateu uecision-making. Becisions shoulu be baseu
on assuming a global tempeiatuie inciease of S-4C (best case 2C; woist
case S-7C) by 21uu. This necessitates incluuing the potential foi high
impact abiupt changes.

Recommenuations aiising fiom the climate tienus aie founu in Chapteis
4 anu S.

8S. Theie is one moie tipping element not shown, the Inuian Summei Nonsoon,
because its ciitical thiesholu cannot be meaningfully ielateu to global waiming.
The tempeiatuie ianges given heie aie fiom ieviewing stuuies in the liteiatuie anu
conveisations with inuiviuual expeits.

44 I CHAPTER 2

Current Trends and Pro|ections for Africa
Climate changes vaiy significantly at local levels. The iate of waiming in
the Aictic, foi example, is outpacing that of the iemainuei of the planet. The
iemainuei of this section pioviues a snapshot of some of the obseiveu anu
piojecteu changes foi tempeiatuie (Figuie 2-16) anu piecipitation in Afiica.

Figure 2-1. Pro|ected temperature increase in Africa 2040, 2090
86

Piecipitation in the Sahel zone in West Afiica shows a geneial negative
tienu since 197u, anu yeais of vaiieu positive anu negative inuexes weie
moie common in the yeais pieceuing 19Su. The 2uu mmyeai anu 6uu
mmyeai isohyets (contouis of equal piecipitation) aie shifting south with
the climate conuitions of the Sahel anu Sahaia also migiating south. The
extent of this shift vaiies acioss the iegion but aveiages about 2uu km in
West Afiica (Figuie 2-17). Noueling stuuies pioject a significant shoitening
of the iainy season ovei much of southein Afiica aftei 2uSu, an inciease in
the seveiity of uiy extiemes (ten-yeai uiiest events) ovei westein Afiica

86. A.R. uanguly, K. Steinhaeusei, E.S. Paiish, S.C. Kao, A.W. King, N. Bianstettei, A.
Soiokine, Climote Cbonqe Support for tbe 0niteJ Stotes Beportment of Befense {0S B0B),
2u1u Quauiennial Befense Review iepoit (0ak Riuge National Laboiatoiy Climate
Change Science Institute, 2u1u). The ieseaich was funueu by the 0S 0ffice of the
Secietaiy of Befense. The 0ak Riuge National Laboiatoiy is manageu by 0T-Battelle,
LLC, foi the 0S Bepaitment of Eneigy.

that paiallels a significant mean ueciease in summei piecipitation, anu an
appositive shift of the whole piecipitation uistiibution.
87

Figure 2-17. Mean precipitation anomalies for Sabel zone West Africa,
1900-2009
The fiequency of anomalously stiong iainfall that causes floous has
incieaseu in East Afiica. Repoiteu floous have incieaseu fiom an aveiage
of less than one eventyeai in the 198us, to seven events pei yeai between
2uuu anu 2uu6. This is the stiongest inciease among the full set of
hyuiometeoiological uisasteis (an inciease fiom an aveiage of less than
thiee events pei yeai in the 198us, to ovei seven events pei yeai in the
199us, anu almost ten events pei yeai fiom 2uuu to 2uu6).
88

Piojections of changes in iivei flows by 2uSu anu 2uSu suggest
incieaseu floouing in East Afiica anu Cential Afiica, as shown in Figuie
2-18.
89
Anothei stuuy piojects an inciease in the intensity of ten-yeai

87. N.E. Shongwe, u.}. van 0luenboigh, B.}.}.N. van uen Buik, B. ue Boei, C.A.S. Coelho,
anu N.A. van Aalst, Piojecteu changes in extieme piecipitation in Afiica unuei global
waiming. Postei, Woikshop on metiics anu methouologies of estimation of extieme
climate events, 27-29 Septembei 2u1u, 0NESC0 heauquaiteis, Paiis, Fiance.
88. N.E. Shongwe, u.}. van 0luenboigh, B.}.}.N. van uen Buik, anu N. van Aalst,
"Piojecteu changes in mean anu extieme piecipitation in Afiica unuei global waiming,
Pait II: East Afiica," Submitteu }ournol of Climote (2u1u).
89. Inteinational Bank foi Reconstiuction anu Bevelopment, Woter onJ Climote Cbonqe:
0nJerstonJinq tbe Risks onJ Hokinq Climote-Smort lnvestment Becisions (The Woilu
Bank: Publication, Novembei 2uu9).

46 I CHAPTER 2

wettest events that also tianslates into incieasing floou iisks foi East
Afiica between 2uS1 anu 21uu.
90

Figure 2-18. Pro|ected percent cbange in bigb flows {floods] at
catcbment level compared to a 191-1990 baseline
The southwaiu shift of the waimest SSTs in the Atlantic anu waiming
in the Inuian 0cean aie iesponsible foi a long-teim uiying tienu ovei
Afiica anu the iecent Sahel uioughts. Incieases in aiiuity aie bioauly
consistent with tienu patteins of inuepenuent iecoius of piecipitation anu
stieam flow.
The annual vaiiability of iainfall has incieaseu. The chances of uiought
occuiiing in paits of the uieatei Boin of Afiica have uoubleu fiom one in six
yeais to one in thiee yeais.
91
Noith Afiican countiies now expeiience five oi
six yeais of uiought pei ten yeais insteau of the one uiought eveiy ten yeais
common at the beginning of the centuiy.
92
Biy yeais have become moie
fiequent in the volta iivei basin since the eaily 198us anu have occuiieu at
shoitei inteivals. The aieal extents to this uiyness have also been incieasing.
The basin iecoiueu at least foui moueiate uiy yeais coveiing ovei Su

9u. Shongwe et al. (2u1u).
91. P. Neiei, Boug Bonu, }oe Bonu, "Enviionmental influences on pastoial conflict in
the Boin of Afiica,"Politicol 6eoqropby 26, no. 6 (2uu7): 716-7SS.
92. A. Agoumi, vulnerobility of Nortb Africo Counties to Climote Cbonqe: AJoptotion onJ
lmplementotion Stroteqies for Climote Cbonqe (Inteinational Institute foi Sustainable
Bevelopment (2uuS).

peicent of the aiea between 198S anu 2uu1.
93
The Nigei iivei basin is
expeiiencing a Su% ieuuction in annual volume.
94
Climate mouels pioject
incieaseu aiiuity in the 21st centuiy ovei most of Afiica.
95

FINDINCS UN CLIMATE TRENDS IN AFRICA
Infoimation on climate change tienus in the 0niteu States Afiica
Commanu (AFRIC0N) aiea of iesponsibility (A0R) is essential to planning
foi opeiations.
Bettei unueistanuing of cuiient anu futuie climate-ielateu impacts can
focus militaiy to militaiy tiaining, exeicises, anu outieach activities on
changing neeus.
In geneial, infoimation on the iegional anu local impacts of climate change
that is useful foi neai anu miu-teim uecision-making is inauequate. The
iange of infoimation ueficiencies incluues:
Lack of availability of uata on changes in the peiiouicity of ciitical
events (e.g., ietuin peiiou of floous)
Lack of assessment of the impact of climate changes on uiban
enviionments (Cuiient stuuies limiteu to the impact of sea level
iise anu stoim suige on coastal aieas)
Failuie to integiate the full set of enviionmental, socio-cultuial,
economic, anu goveinmental factois into impact assessments
Lack of methous anu uata to suppoit iuentifying anu assessing the
cost-benefits of paiticulai auaptation options
The scenaiios anu mouels in use to pioject continueu climate
changes lag cuiient scientific unueistanuing.
0nueistanuing on any one geogiaphical aiea, type of change, oi
impact iequiies synthesis acioss an incieasingly vast aiiay of
mateiials uevelopeu by uiveise stakeholueis.
0ngoing B0B activities to auuiess iesponses to climate
changes can also aiu paitnei nations in ieuucing climate-
ielateu iisks. 0S Aimy Coips of Engineeis (0SACE) guiuance

9S. R. Kasei anu B. Biekkiggei, "Biought fiequency in the volta Basin of West Afiica,"
Sustoinobility Science S (2u1u): 89-97, Boi 1u.1uu7s1162S-uu9-u1u1-S.
94. 0S Aimy Coips of Engineeis, Tbe lmpoct of Woter os o 0niteJ Stotes 6overnment
Security ConsiJerotion for tbe 0S Africo CommonJ (Septembei 29, 2u1u). Repoit
piepaieu foi the 0S Afiica Commanu.
9S. A. Bai (2u11).

48 I CHAPTER 2

on sea level iise, foi example, is applicable to Afiican coastal
countiies.
Lack of visibility into inteinational effoits impeues effective
action. Coulu, foi example, RANET (suppoiting low-tech
infoimation uissemination to iuial anu iemote populations)
suppoit the Afiican Bevelopment Bank's effoit on climate anu
weathei foiecasting.
96

96. RANET, Rauio anu Inteinet foi the communication of hyuio-meteiollogical
infoimation foi iuial uevelopment, "is a collaboiative effoit of many national hyuio-
meteoiological seivices, nongoveinmental oiganizations, anu communities. These
vaiieu paitneis come togethei to make weathei, watei, anu climate infoimation
available to iuial anu iemote populations, which aie often most in neeu of
enviionmental foiecasts, obseivations, anu wainings." www.ianetpioject.net
|Accesseu }uly 22, 2u11j.

POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 49

Potential Consequences of
Climate Cbange
Climate change effects on watei availability, foou piouuction, health,
anu local anu iegional economies can be paiticulaily seveie wheie living
conuitions, foou supplies, health, anu goveinance aie fiagile. Thus, climate
change can be thought of as both an exaceibating factoi intensifying
existing iesouice anu secuiity pioblems anu as a catalyst cieating new
enviionmental anu iesouice challenges (Figuie S-1).
97

Figure 3-1. Vulnerability Framework
The uiscussion of consequences in this chaptei will focus on Afiica,
wheie the capacity to auapt to the effects of climate change is low.
Ineffective oi inauequate goveinance will impeue neai-teim iesponses
anu auaptation ovei much of the continent, wheie potentially helpful
institutions aie weak. Poveity anu uisease aie wiuespieau, secuiity foices
aie often unpiofessional, anu political violence is common.

97. Auapteu fiom B. L. Tuinei II, Rogei E. Kaspeisonb, Pamela A. Natsone, }ames }.
NcCaithy, Robeit W. Coiell, Linusey Chiistensene, Noelle Eckley, }eanne X. Kaspeisonb,
Amy Lueise, Naiybeth L. Naitellog, Colin Polsky, Alexanuei Pulsiphei, anu Anuiew
Schillei, "A fiamewoik foi vulneiability analysis in sustainability science," ProceeJinqs
of tbe Notionol AcoJemy of Sciences 1uu, no. 14 (}uly 8, 2uuS) 8u74-8u79.

50 I CHAPTER 3

Climate change can impact:
Healtb. Waimei climate coulu inciease the caiiieis of vectoi-
boine uiseases incluuing malaiia anu yellow fevei. Incieaseu
ueaths fiom heat waves, floous, uioughts, anu malnutiition
Food supplies. Climate change in Afiica is likely to auveisely
affect agiicultuial piouuctivity. (While the most noithein climes
on the planet may expeiience an inciease in agiicultuial
piouuctivity, Afiica, along with much of South Ameiica anu South
Asia, aie piojecteu to see steep ueclines. The economies of many
Afiican nations aie still baseu on subsistence agiicultuie; well
ovei Su peicent of all Afiicans aie engageu in subsistence
agiicultuie. Noie fiequent anu intensive uioughts anu floous can
leau to foou shoitages anu famines.)
Refugees. Bwinuling foou anu watei supplies can tiiggei
migiations leauing to conflict at iegional, inteinational, anu local
levels foi stiuggling nations.
Coastal regions. Incieaseu uamage fiom stoims anu floous anu
uevelopeu iegions at iisk fiom iising sea levels
Afiica is especially vulneiable to uiought anu agiicultuie challenges.
Ten of the twelve countiies most at iisk foi each of these two challenges
aie in Afiica (Table S-1).
98

The iemainuei of this chaptei focuses on watei supply issues.

98. Inteinational Bank foi Reconstiuction anu Bevelopment, Convenient Solutions to on
lnconvenient Trutb: Fcosystem-boseJ Approocbes to Climote Cbonqe (Washington, B.C.:
Woilu Bank, 2uu9).

Table 3-1. Five Climate Tbreats, Top 12 Most Vulnerable Countries
Drougbt Flood Storm Coastal Im Agriculture
Malawi Bangladesh Philippines Micro states Sudan
Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Senegal
Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Zimbabwe
India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Mali
Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Zambia
Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Morocco
Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Niger
Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico India
Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Malawi
Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Algeria
Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Ethiopia
Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Pakistan
Source: World Bank 2009.
Impacts of Climate Cbange on Water
The availability of watei unueilies all othei elements of human
secuiity. Changes in piecipitation oi seasonal ueliveiy patteins can
thieaten establisheu watei supplies suppoiting agiicultuie, fisheiies,
tianspoitation, human consumption, anu the natuial enviionment.
99

Watei is a key ueteiminant of lanu piouuctivity, as well as aquacultuie
anu inlanu fisheiy piouuctivity. 0SAIB pieuicts that global foou supplies will
neeu to inciease by an estimateu Su peicent to meet uemanu incieases by
2uSu. The Foou anu Agiicultuie 0iganization of the 0niteu Nations pieuicts
that watei foi agiicultuie neeus to inciease 6u peicent to meet the uemanu.
Clean watei suppoits goou health. In Afiica, incieases in population aie
outpacing impiovements in accessible uiinking watei anu sanitation.
100

New watei-ielateu health iisks aie emeiging. The Woilu Bealth 0iganization

99. 0S Aimy Coips of Engineeis (2u1u).
1uu. 0N Woter, A Snopsbot of Brinkinq Woter onJ Sonitotion in Africo (2uu8). A iegional
peispective baseu on new uata fiom the Woilu Bealth 0iganization0NICEF }oint
Nonitoiing Piogiamme foi Watei Supply anu Sanitation. Piepaieu foi ANC0N as a
contiibution to the 11th Summit of Beaus of State anu uoveinment of the Afiican 0nion
With special theme: Neeting the Nillennium Bevelopment uoal on Watei anu Sanitation
Su }une to 1 }uly, 2uu8.

52 I CHAPTER 3

iepoits that watei shoitages have uiiven up the use of wastewatei foi
agiicultuial piouuction in pooi uiban anu iuial communities. Noie than 1u
peicent of people woiluwiue consume foous iiiigateu by wastewatei that
can contain chemicals oi uisease-causing oiganisms.
101

uiowing populations anu iising uemanus fiom agiicultuial, municipal,
inuustiial, anu enviionmental uses inciease piessuie on watei iesouices.
Incieaseu vaiiability anu changing patteins of piecipitation, melting
glacieis, iising sea levels, anu incieaseu evapotianspiiation aie some of
the most uiiect ways in which a waiming climate will exaceibate
shoitages. Societies uesign themselves aiounu stable climate anu iesouice
expectations. Expectations that aie unmet oi alteieu significantly on a
iepeateu basis aie likely to leau to instability in alieauy weak states.
102
Resolution of iightful use oi owneiship of watei is alieauy a significant
issue foi local goveinments aiounu the woilu.
Fiom 196u to 2uuS, the aveiage pei capita ienewable watei iesouices
in noithein Afiica uecieaseu by moie than a factoi of thiee: fiom almost
S,Suu m
S
yeai

to less than 1,uuu m
S
yeai

in 2uuS, with fuithei ieuuction
expecteu. The Afiican Bevelopment Bank estimates that twenty-one
countiies, neaily half the continent, will expeiience watei stiess by 2u2S,
anu nine countiies will be facing extieme scaicity (Figuie S-2).
103
Beclining
watei levels in many iiveis anu lakes will likely ueciease watei quality,
exaceibate wateiboine uiseases, anu ieuuce available hyuiopowei.

1u1. Woilu Bealth 0iganization, Ten focts obout woter security (Woilu Bealth
0iganization, 2uu9).
1u2 }. Belli Piescoli, "Watei Secuiity, ulobal Watei Issues anu Climate Change Watei:
Key to Regional Stability," Keynote speech at Inteinational Watei Symposium, Koiean
Enviionment Institute, Climate Change Watei Secuiity, }uly 2u, 2u1u, Koiea Chambei
of Commeice anu Inuustiy Seoul Koiea.
1uS. 0NEPuRIB-Aienual, Watei availability in Afiica, 0NEPuRIB-Aienual Naps anu
uiaphics Libiaiy, http:maps.giiua.nogogiaphicwatei_availability_in_afiica
(Accesseu 29 }uly 2u11). Caitogiaphei: Bigout, Belphine, baseu on a sketch by Philippe
Rekacewicz; 0NEPuRIB-Aienual. Souices: 0niteu Nations Economic Commission foi
Afiica (0NECA), Auuis Ababa; ulobal Enviionment 0utlook 2uuu (uE0 2uuu), 0NEP,
Eaithscan, Lonuon, 1999.


Figure 3-2. Water availability in Africa
Cote d'lvoire
Niger
Benin
Sudan
Senegal
Mauritania
Mozambique
Uganda
Ghana
Togo
Nigeria
Madagascar
Burkina Faso
Tanzania
Zimbabwe
Ethiopia
Lesotho
Mauritius
Comoros
South Africa
Egypt
Somalia
Malawi
Rwanda
Burundi
Kenya
Carpe Verde
Djibouti
@) IGIRII IDI
UNEP Arendal
1000
Scarcity
Water Availability
2000
Stress Vulnerable
3000 4000 5 000 sooo m'
==;;;;;:!-
Water availability per capita
in 1990
-
in 2025
Water scarcity
less than 1 000 m3fpersonlyear
Water stress
1 000 to 1 700 m3/persontyear
Water vulnerability
1 700 to 2 500 m3/person/year
Freshwater Stress and Scarcity
in 2025
()
Scarcity
_j Stress
DELPHNEOIGQUT
BAS!:D01 ASI([TCH BY PHII.JP9( AEKACEWCZ
IU.iJ.O(R- -
Source: United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), Addis Abeba ; Global Environment Outlook 2000
(GEO), UNEP, Earthscan, London, 1999.
Digout, Delphine. based on a sketch by Philippe Rekacewicz; UNEPIGRID-Arendal
http://maps.grida.nolgo/graphic/water_availability_in_africa
(Printed with permission)

54 I CHAPTER 3

0nlike most of the woilu, the piimaiy cause of watei scaicity acioss
Afiica is a lack of uevelopment of available watei iesouices anu not physical
watei scaicity (Figuie S-S). Afiica has one-thiiu of the woilu's majoi
inteinational watei basins but can access less than 6 peicent of its
ienewable watei iesouices. The lack of hyuiologic uata makes it impossible
to ueteimine the location anu sustainable yielu of watei in most iegions.

Figure 3-3. Areas of pbysical and economic water scarcity
Incieasing vaiiability in piecipitation anu highei evapotianspiiation
iates have foiceu faimeis in many ueveloping countiies to iely moie heavily
on giounuwatei. As a iesult, aquifei levels aie ueclining at iates between
1 myeai to S myeai, anu uepleteu aquifeis may not iefill foi centuiies.
In sub-Sahaian Afiica moie than 9S peicent of the faimeu lanu is iain-
feu. Cuiient faimeis' yielus in iain-feu aieas aie two- to fivefolu lowei than
achievable potential yielus, anu that cuiient iainwatei use efficiency is only
SS-4S peicent.
104
The lack of stoiage capacity is one factoi that contiibutes
to this heavy ieliance on iain-feu agiicultuie anu incieases the vulneiability
to changes in auequate piecipitation. In many Afiican nations, agiicultuie
uominates the economy, which in tuin is uepenuent on vaiiations in

1u4. Suhas P. Wani, }. Rockstiom, anu T. 0weis, eus, RoinfeJ Aqriculture: 0nlockinq tbe
Potentiol (0niteu Kinguom: Inteinational Watei Nanagement Institute, 2uu9).

piecipitation. Figuie S-4 captuies the iesults on gioss uomestic piouuct
(uBP) foi Ethiopia anu Tanzania.
105

Figure 3-4. Cross Domestic Product growtb tracks rainfall variability
{inadequate storage & distribution]
While watei consumption anu withuiawal in Afiica have been
incieasing ovei time, the continent's watei iesouices have been uecieasing,
mainly as a iesult of peisistent uioughts anu changing lanu use patteins.
The volume of watei estimateu to have been lost; foi example, fiom the
Afiican lanumass uuiing a thiee-yeai peiiou enuing in appioximately 2uu6,
was about SS4 km
S
, which is as much watei as Afiicans consumeu ovei the
same peiiou.
106

1uS. K.B. White, Aimy Coips of Engineeis. Piesentation to the Task Foice on Becembei
17, 2u1u. Baseu on N. van Aalst, N Bellmuth, anu B Ponzi, "Come Rain oi Shine:
Integiating Climate Risk Nanagement into Afiican Bevelopment Bank 0peiations,"
Woiking Papei No 89 (Tunis: Afiican Bevelopment Bank, 2uu7). Souice: Woilu Bank.
1u6. Africo Fnvironment 0utlook 2: 0ur environment, our weoltb (0niteu Nations
Enviionment Piogiamme, 2uu6).

56 I CHAPTER 3

Climate change will intensify existing watei issues (shoitages, floous,
uioughts) anu effective watei management will become evei moie ciitical in
ueveloping countiies. The many uiffeient uses of finite watei iesouices aie
inteiuepenuent. Bigh iiiigation uemanus anu polluteu uiainage flows fiom
agiicultuie mean less fieshwatei foi uiinking oi inuustiial use;
contaminateu municipal anu inuustiial wastewatei pollutes iiveis anu
thieatens ecosystems; if watei has to be left in a iivei to piotect fisheiies anu
ecosystems, less can be uiveiteu to giow ciops. These multiple uses of watei
complicate watei management but offei oppoitunities foi coopeiation.
Wuter xecurlty
Watei secuiity is funuamental to all foims of human secuiity anu
uevelopment. Nany Afiican nations uo not know how much giounu watei
anu suiface watei supplies they have. 0vei extiaction anu sustainability
aie alieauy issues. These pioblems will woisen as climate change
unceitainties come into play, iesulting in incieaseu tiansbounuaiy
uisagieement anu incieaseu local conflict ovei this scaice iesouice.
B0S anu 0SAIB watei secuiity effoits aie uecentializeu at the
embassy level anu uo not engage 0S goveinment technical expeits such as
hyuiologists anu engineeis in the planning anu execution of watei
piojects. The lack of a cooiuinateu 0S goveinment watei secuiity vision
anu a long teim plan, iesults in a bioau anu unuefineu enviionmental
secuiity piogiam at the embassy anu combatant commanu levels, which in
tuin means that limiteu iesouices aie not utilizeu as effectively as possible
to achieve 0S goveinment objectives.
The embassies anu combatant commanus have a pooi unueistanuing of
watei secuiity issues. Theiefoie, watei secuiity effoits aie unueifunueu by
B0S, 0SAIB, anu B0B. The Paul Simon Watei foi the Pooi Act
107
is a B0S
unfunueu eaimaik, anu B0B humanitaiian assistance funus aie veiy limiteu
anu iestiictive. Piojects anu capacity-builuing is suppoiteu thiough a
myiiau of funus such as humanitaiian assistance, Bumanitaiian anu Civic

1u7. The Watei foi the Pooi Act was enacteu in 2uuS by the Buieau of 0ceans anu
Inteinational Enviionmental anu Scientific Affaiis within the Bepaitment of State. The
Act authoiizes the use of foieign aiu to expanu the iole of global watei anu sanitation
piogiams in 0S foieign policy. Auuitionally, it allows the secietaiy of state to cieate
inteinational piogiams that piomote incieaseu levels of clean watei anu sanitation
aiounu the woilu.

Assistance, B0B Enviionmental Inteinational Coopeiation Piogiam (BEIC),
anu 12u7121u funus.
108
The lack of a ueuicateu appiopiiation foi watei
anu enviionmental secuiity piojects makes it impossible to uevelop iealistic
long-teim plans at the embassy anu combatant commanu levels. This leaus
to uifficultly in managing expectations, which ultimately jeopaiuizes 0S
cieuibility with paitnei nations.
Efficient anu effective action necessitates a whole of goveinment
appioach leu by B0S0SAIB that ensuies a single 0S goveinment
appioach to watei secuiity in Afiica anu othei ueveloping iegions.
RECUMMENDATIUNS UN WATER SECURITY
Auopt the B0BCombatant Commanu Watei Secuiity Piogiam Stiategy to
institute watei secuiity as a coie element of B0B stiategy that incluues:
Beveloping a B0S-leu inteiagency team in the combatant
commanu aiea oi iesponsibility that establishes goals, pioviues
guiuance to embassies, anu piioiitizes effoits to impiove watei
secuiity in iegions
Focusing on aieas that meet 0S goveinment collective inteiests
(e.g., uevelopment challenges, potential foi conflict, impoitance of
bilateial ielations, oi existence of foiwaiu opeiating bases)
Assisting embassies in ueveloping piogiams that suppoit paitnei
nation effoits to:
Locate, quantify, anu chaiacteiize watei iesouices
Iuentify potential impacts to watei iesouices fiom climate
change
Bevelop long-iange plans foi sustainable watei use anu
associateu lanu use management foi foou, agiicultuie, anu
livestock
Encouiage policy anu economic piactices that piomote
sustainable watei usage

1u8. In Section 12u7 of the FY 2uu6 National Befense Authoiization Act, Congiess
authoiizeu BoB to tiansfei up to $1uu million pei yeai to the Secietaiy of State foi
"ieconstiuction, secuiity, oi stabilization assistance to a foieign countiy." Congiess
then ieauthoiizeu this authoiity in Section 121u of the FY 2uu8 Befense Authoiization
Act. These funus have hence been infoimally iefeiieu to as "12u7" oi "121u" funus.

58 I CHAPTER 3

Piomote the neeu foi cleai, anu tianspaient, shaieu uata on
watei iesouices
0se lessons leaineu fiom the 0niteu States anu othei
countiies' iegional watei iesouice management expeiience
(0SACE, Enviionmental Piotection Agency, 0S ueological
Suivey (0SuS), Tennessee valley Authoiity, numeious
iegional commissions, anu Nu0s) to auuiess co-iipaiian
(shaieu watei iesouices) equity
Beveloping a B0S0SAIB leau inteiagency team at the embassy
level to establish a long-teim watei anu enviionmental secuiity
engagement plan foi the nation
0sing lessons leaineu fiom the 0niteu States anu othei countiies'
iegional watei iesouice management expeiience (0SACE,
Enviionmental Piotection Agency, 0SuS, Tennessee valley
Authoiity, Buieau of Reclamation, numeious iegional
commissions, anu Nu0s) to auuiess co-iipaiian (shaieu watei
iesouices) equity

Transboundary Issues
Nany watei tioubles aie iegional pioblems. Foity peicent of the
woilu's population lives on shaieu basins, which covei moie than Su
peicent of Eaith's lanumass. Tiansbounuaiy watei issues aie paiticulaily
ciitical in Afiica (Figuie S-S)
109
wheie its majoi iivei basins cioss many
national bounuaiies (ten foi the Nigei anu Nile iiveis; nine foi the Congo
Rivei), moie than those on any othei continent. Since one of the piimaiy
ioles of uams is to manage iesouice vaiiability anu the extiemes that can
leau to floouing, climate-ielateu changes in piecipitation can be expecteu
to inciease constiuction. Biying lanus will have a similai effect thiough
incieasing uemanus foi iiiigation watei. Bowevei, watei piojects
themselves can be a flashpoint foi conflict. Bams, foi example, aie often

1u9. Petei Ashton, Aquatic Ecosystems Reseaich uioup, Natuial Resouices anu the
Enviionment, CSIR, Pietoiia, South Afiica. Piesentation on Key Challenges Facing
Watei uoveinance in Afiica, piesenteu at: South Afiican Institute of Inteinational
Affaiis Symposium: "The Seconu Sciamble foi Afiica: Lifting the Resouices Cuise":
SAIIA, }ohannesbuig, 29 Novembei 2uu7. Bata fiom: Foou anu Agiicultuie
0iganization of the 0niteu Nations (2uuS). Aquastat Batabase.


beset by pioblems incluuing foiceu migiation anu extensive uownstieam
enviionmental uamage.
The multiple shaieu inteiests aiounu watei pioviue a stiong economic
aigument foi coopeiation anu theie aie tienus of coopeiative behavioi.
Bowevei, the likelihoou of conflict in iivei basins iises as the iate of change
within the basin exceeus the institutional capacity to absoib that change (as
uemonstiateu by the histoiy of conflicting anu coopeiative watei
inteiactions ovei the last fifty yeais). The effects of iapiu enviionmental
change oi iapiu population giowth aie compounueu by majoi unilateial
uevelopment piojects, a lack of institutional capacity, oi geneially hostile
ielations.
110
Changes in piecipitation, evapotianspiiation, anu enviionment
uegiauation, coupleu with incieaseu migiation in seaich of watei iesouices
anu stable livelihoous, coulu tip the balance in fiagile iegions.

Figure 3-5. Dependence on inflowsJwater transfers

11u. }. Belli Piiscoli anu A.T. Wolf, Honoqinq onJ Tronsforminq Woter Conflicts
(Cambiiuge 0niveisity Piess, 2uu8).

60 I CHAPTER 3

Equitable shaiing of iesouices among iipaiian countiies will be
incieasingly vital in the face of iesouice unieliability anu shoitages. Yet the
high levels of conflict between Afiican countiies such as Ethiopia anu
Eiitiea, oi inteinally, such as in Somalia, pievent goveinments fiom
establishing meaningful institutional suppoit mechanisms foi management
of tiansbounuaiy iesouices.
111
Existing tieaties, especially among
contentious paitneis, may faltei with the change in the climatic conuitions
on which iesouice management stiategies aie baseu. 0pstieam countiies
may seek to use climate change as a scieen foi ienegotiating watei-shaiing
agieements to moie favoiable teims; anu, in times of heighteneu tension
ovei othei issues, watei infiastiuctuie can become an incieasingly
attiactive weapon of uiplomatic piessuie, oi taiget in a militaiy
confiontation.
112
The shiinkage of Lake Chau illustiates the potential
inteinational impoit of alteiations in the geogiaphical uistiibution of
tiansbounuaiy iesouices; once shaieu with Nigei anu Nigeiia, the lake
peiimetei is now bounu by only Chau anu Cameioon.
The piimaiy obstacles to effective negotiation aie the unceitainties
suiiounuing piesent anu futuie watei uses anu watei availability. These
foiestall builuing tiust among paitneis. Key secuiity unknowns incluue
the likelihoou of countiies expeiiencing extieme watei scaicity iesoiting
to unilateial actions that geneiate, foi example, ietaliatoiy tiaue actions,
escalating tensions at the inteinational level.
11S
Recent yeais have seen
many instances of countiies builuing laige-scale uams to meet the neeus of
theii giowing populations anu economies to the uetiiment of theii
neighbois. Potential conflict is now biewing between the neighboiing
countiies of Ethiopia anu Kenya as seveial laige-scale hyuiopowei uams
aie constiucteu oi planneu along majoi stieam couises uownstieam fiom
theii heauwateis.
114

A sepaiate issue aiises when a countiy's boiueis aie uefineu by
changing tiansbounuaiy wateis insteau of geogiaphical cooiuinates.
0ganua anu the Bemociatic Republic of the Congo, foi example, have acteu
quickly to heau off a uispute as changes in the couise of the Rivei Semliki
ovei the last fifty yeais, have tiansfeiieu as much as Su km
2
of Congolese

111. B0B/Combatant Commanuei Water Security Program Strategy, April 2010.
Available from Erik Fleischner, HQUSACE LNO, United States European Command.
112. Nabey et al. (2u11).
11S. 0S Aimy Coips of Engineeis (2u1u).
114. B0BCombatant Commanuei Watei Secuiity Piogiam Stiategy, Apiil 2u1u.

teiiitoiy to 0ganua.
11S
Boiuei issues like the Nigingo Islanu saga that has
pitteu 0ganua against its eastein neighboi, Kenya, coulu become moie
complicateu if a fuithei fall in Lake victoiia watei levels incieases the size of
the islanu above watei. 0ganua is also looking at boiuei changes occuiiing
along the West Nile anu its boiuei with Rwanua in the Katuna wetlanus.
These climate-ielateu stiesses open up oppoitunities foi conflict-
pievention anu peace-builuing. The shaieu pioblems aie a basis foi biinging
auveisaiies to the negotiating table anu pioviuing a common language foi
builuing cultuies of coopeiation. Bistoiy shows that even countiies with a
histoiy of conflict will come togethei to negotiate watei issues.
Watei pioblems aie iecognizeu as "wickeu pioblems" which aie fuithei
complicateu by the neeu to integiate two veiy uiffeient types of knowleuge,
woik acioss seveial socio-political units of analysis simultaneously, anu
bettei oiganize watei as a common iesouice.
116
Noie funuamentally, most
Afiican nations lack uata on the extent of theii cuiient sustainable suiface
watei, much less uata on ienewable giounuwatei iesouices. Auuing
incieasing climate vaiiability anu futuie climate unceitainties into this mix
only compounus the uifficulties. 0ntil now, watei manageis have uevelopeu
mouels anu tools foi a stable climate with known seasonal anu uecaual
cycles. Changes in the vaiiability of piecipitation, extieme events, anu
incieases in stoim suige in coastal iegions iaise auuitional issues foi the
uevelopment of typically long-liveu watei infiastiuctuie. Tiaueoffs between
competing uses will become piogiessively moie uifficult as uemanus on
those iesouices inciease.
The foimei Piesiuent of South Afiica anu Nobel Peace Piize iecipient,
Nelson Nanuela, stateu that: "Secuiity is an all-encompassing conuition in
which inuiviuual citizens live in fieeuom, peace anu safety; paiticipate fully
in the piocess of goveinance; enjoy the piotection of funuamental iights;
have access to iesouices anu the basic necessities of life; anu inhabit an
enviionment which is not uetiimental to theii health anu well-being."
117

11S. East Afiica: 0ganua, BR Congo Beau 0ff Bispute as Rivei Alteis Boiuei.
allAfiica.com, Novembei 9, 2uu9.
116. Piesentation by Bi. K. White to the BSB Task Foice, citing (Fieeman, }AWRA 2uuu).
117. White Papei on Befence, 1996.

62 I CHAPTER 3

Consequences for National Security
Climate change is an obseivable fact. Regaiuless of cause, iecent global
tempeiatuie iise is outsiue the iange expeiienceu since the enu of the last
ice age appioximately ten thousanu yeais ago. This change has the potential
to change many of the uelicate balances that affect 0S national secuiity.
Changes alieauy unueiway aie having, anu will have, majoi
consequences foi the political, economic anu geogiaphic woilu as we
know it. ueogiaphic mouifications, uiiven by climate change, can ueciue
the fate of islanu teiiitoiies, even countiies, whose highest points aie only
meteis above cuiient sea suige levels. Shifts in iivei couises anu lake
levels can iesult in changing inteinational bounuaiies.
Climate change's impact on 0S national secuiity will be ueteimineu by
its political, economic anu geogiaphic manifestations, yet most cuiient
climate ieseaich seeks to unueistanu anu mouel the climate itself.
Noueling climate change physics is like assembling a puzzle. 0ne seeks to
finu all the pieces. Eventually some ability to foiecast iainfall, winus,
tempeiatuie, sea level, anu stoim intensity will emeige. The futuie iate of
shift anu ultimate magnituue of climate vaiiations now unueiway aie, as
yet, impossible to accuiately pieuict, but the uiiection of these shifts is
ceitain. Eaith is waiming. It is cleai that the shift is a funuamental one that
inevitably will altei factois ciitical to 0S global inteiests.
Bealing with the political, economic, anu geogiaphic fallout fiom these
physical foices, on the othei hanu, is a mysteiy. No amount of uata collection
will illuminate, with any ceitainty, actions which iesult fiom human emotions,
cultuies, anu peisonalities.
118
Nuch woik iemains in unueistanuing piocesses
foi uealing with likely climate-inuuceu conflict types.
In some instances, climate change will seive as a thieat multipliei,
exaceibating tensions between tiibes, ethnic gioups, anu nations. In othei
cases, climate change will seem moie like Nothei Natuie's weapon of mass
uestiuction. This natuial weapon of mass uestiuction may also be slow-
acting. When iainfall shoitage in the Atlas Nountains causes ueciease in
giounu watei, salt ocean watei can intiuue, exaceibating sea level iise

118. Foi a uiscussion of the natuie of puzzles anu mysteiies see: Nalcom ulauwell,
"0pen Seciets" in Wbot tbe Boq Sow onJ 0tber AJventures (New Yoik, NY: Little, Biown
anu Company, 2uu9).

ielateu to salinization unuei Noith Afiica's coastal poit cities (e.g., Tunis,
Algieis, Rabat, Tiipoli, anu Casablanca). Fiesh watei will be uisplaceu,
impeiiling both potable anu agiicultuial souices.
119
Low-lying poits aie
vulneiable to uamage oi uisiuption iesulting fiom violent stoim suiges. In
time, these cuiiently piospeious centeis coulu become as foisaken as
touay's Timbuktu; piessuie foi population uisplacement to Euiope anu
elsewheie in Afiica will giow.
Each of these changes, anu many, many moie, can stiongly affect 0S
national secuiity. Impacts likely will not be uiiectly militaiy. If, anu when,
militaiy iesponses aie necessaiy to piotect 0S national inteiests,
iesponses will be too late to iectify unueilying conflicting foices. Climate
change will moie likely fiist affect human secuiity, iesulting in population
anu political instability that thieatens nonmilitaiy 0S inteiests (access to
natuial iesouices, ciiminal activity anu teiioiism, economic uamage, oi
political agieements), then escalate to kinetic militaiy conflict.
The climate shifts that piouuce instability may not occui in the
pioximity of the uistuibance. Foi instance, the uniest leauing to the
Egyptian goveinment's uownfall in wintei 2u11, exaceibateu by escalating
foou piices biought on by failuie of the Russian wheat ciop, coulu thieaten
the Egypt-Isiaeli peace agieement, a mattei of 0S national secuiity.
0nueistanuing the political anu economic piessuies of climate change is a
global pioblem, not just a iegional one. Analysis of climate change effects
must embiace multiple layeis of unueistanuing.
Some uJJltlonul conxequencex of contlnueJ chungex
ln Afrlcu
Continuing inciease in local mean tempeiatuie anu extiemes, incluuing
the fiequency anu intensity of floous anu uiought, will compounu existing
pioblems that incluue:
Reuuceu fiesh watei availability
Reuuceu agiicultuial piouuction
Loss of biouiveisity
Incieaseu foou insecuiity

119. National Intelligence Council, Nortb Africo: lmpoct of Climote Cbonqe to 20S0:
6eopoliticol lmplicotions (Becembei 2uu9) p. 11.

64 I CHAPTER 3

Incieaseu health pioblems
Incieaseu migiation
The impacts of these consequences can only be unueistoou in theii
piopei context-enviionmental, socio-cultuial, economic, goveinmental,
etc.-that ueteimines vulneiability, iesilience, anu auaptive capacity.
Beveloping iegions face uiffeiing but equally ciitical climate change-
ielateu issues. The one common ciitical issue is watei.
Agriculture
Climate change may have a giavei effect on Afiica than any othei
continent. Accoiuing to IPCC AR4 piojections of a minimum inciease in
tempeiatuie of 2.SC by 2uSu, aiounu 6uu,uuu km
2
of cultivable lanu may
be iuineu.
Seveial moueling stuuies have assesseu changes in ciop yielus unuei
piojecteu futuie changes, with iesults such as those shown in Figuie
S-6.
120
This type of stuuy eithei excluues the feitilization effect of
auuitional atmospheiic caibon oi incluues assumptions baseu on
laboiatoiy stuuies. An alteinative appioach is to pioject changes in the
length of the giowing season (Figuie S-7).
121

Fish aie a majoi souice of uaily piotein foi a laige peicentage of the
population. Figuie S-8 shows how changes in ocean tempeiatuie anu
chemistiy aie piojecteu to change fisheiies' catch potential in the oceans
aiounu Afiica.
122
Changing tempeiatuies anu watei levels in many of
Afiica's lakes also affect the piouuctivity of aquacultuie anu inlanu fisheiies.

12u. u. Fischei, N. Shah, F.N. Tubiello, anu B., van velhuizen, "Socio-economic anu
climate change impacts on agiicultuie: an integiateu assessment, 199u-2u8u,"
Pbilosopbicol Tronsoctions of tbe Royol Society B, S6u (146S): 2u67-2u8S, Boi:
1u.1u98istb.2uuS.1744, Novembei 2uuS.
121. P.L. Thointon, P.u. }ones, T. 0wiyo, R.I. Kiuska, N. Beiiei, P. Kiistjanson,
A. Notenbaeit, N. Bekele anu A. 0molo, with contiibutions fiom v. 0iinui, B. 0tienue,
A. 0chieng, S. Bhauwal, K. Anantiam, S. Naii, v. Kumai, anu 0. Kulkai, Hoppinq climote
vulnerobility onJ poverty in Africo (2uu6). Repoit to the Bepaitment foi Inteinational
Bevelopment.
122. Cheung et al., "Laige-scale ieuistiibution of maximum fisheiies catch potential in
the global ocean unuei climate change," 6lobol Cbonqe Bioloqy 16 (2u1u): 24-SS.


Source: UNEP: The Environmental Food Crisis, 2009.
123
(Printed with permission)
Figure 3-. Pro|ected climate cbange impacts for cereal output for 2080

12S. C. Nellemann, N. NacBevette, T. Nanueis, B. Eickhout, B. Svihus, A. u. Piins, anu B.
P. Kaltenboin eus., Tbe Fnvironmentol IooJ Crisis: Tbe Fnvironment's Role in Avertinq
Iuture IooJ Crises (0NEP, Febiuaiy 2uu9),
http:www.giiua.nopublicationsiifoou-ciisis

66 I CHAPTER 3

Figure 3-7. Percent cbanges in lengtb of growing period cbanges to
2050 {HadCM3D, SRES A1FI]


Figure 3-8. Cbange in fisberies catcb potential {10-year average]
from 2005 to 2055
Sea level rise
Relative sea level iise is not unifoim uue to effects that incluue
vaiiation in ocean uynamics, iegional vaiiations in theimal expansion, anu
giavity-elastic influences fiom lanu-baseu ice sheets anu glacieis.
A iise in sea level exaceibates stoim suige to inciease floouing anu
potential stoim-ielateu uamage (Figuie S-9). This effect is inveisely
piopoitional to the intensity of the stoim. An inciease in sea level of two
feet uoubles the stoim tiue associateu with a tiopical stoim with a noimal
stoim suige of two feet. The stoim tiue of a seveie cyclone with a stoim
suige of fifteen feet only incieases by thiiteen peicent foi the same sea
level iise.
124
Even so, a ielatively small inciease can iesult in bieaching
stoim uefenses. Table S-2 lists assesseu impacts foi a piojecteu sea level
iise of one metei anu a ten peicent inciease in extieme watei (i.e., a one-
in-one hunuieu yeai stoim).
125

124. K. B. White, 0S Aimy Coips of Engineeis. Piesentation to the BSB Task Foice,
Becembei 17, 2u1u.
12S. Susmita Basgupta, Benoit Laplante, Siobhan Nuiiay, anu Baviu Wheelei, Seo level
Rise onJ Storm Surqes: A Comporotive Anolysis of lmpocts in Bevelopinq Countries,
Public Reseaich Woiking Papei 49u1 (Woilu Bank, Apiil 2uu9).

68 I CHAPTER 3

Figure 3-9. Cities at risk due to sea level rise
126

Sea level iise can have seveial auuitional consequences. These incluue
coastal eiosion, loss of baiiiei wetlanus, saltwatei intiusion, pollution
fiom spieau of lanufill, inuustiial contamination, anu agiicultuial wastes;
anu uamage to sanitation systems.

126. 0N-BABITAT, Africon Cities ot Risk Jue to Seo-level Rise (ulobal 0iban
0bseivatoiy, 2uu8).


Table 3-2. Sea level rise {1 m] and storm surge increase {103] impacts
Countiy
L
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Mozambique 3,268 41% 380,296 52% 140.73 55% 291 24% 78 55% 1,218 47%
Madagascar 2,312 45% 102,439 43% 27.89 44% 0 36 44% 617 51%
Nigeria 2,264 31% 870,276 25% 407.61 22% 0 100% 94 29% 1,365 39%
Mauritania 1,754 21% 149,576 33% 74.21 35% 0 2% 59 43% 710 33%
Senegal 677 17% 190,690 21% 111.66 21% 29 2% 27 16% 395 22%
Guinea-
Bissau
670 36% 61,134 33% 10.01 33% 0 12 34% 278 40%
Cote
DIvoire
668 30% 315,609 48% 176.27 43% 0 99 53% 162 38%
Gabon 630 26% 34,500 28% 120.95 24% 0 30 30% 253 27%
South Africa 607 43% 48,143 33% 174.30 31% 70 34% 93 48% 132 46%
Somalia 555 28% 33,756 31% 8.90 26% 15 16% 1 25% 94 25%
Sierra Leone 549 29% 39,080 35% 5.69 38% 0 1 37% 451 34%
Namibia 470 60% 957 42% 2.31 37% 0 13 50% 18 82%
Angola 457 29% 72.448 46% 88.54 45% 23 14% 19 46% 129 15%
Eritrea 452 32% 8,238 31% 0.97 29% 0 4 43% 31 32%
Tanzania 426 47% 75,493 50% 34.45 49% 64 22% 15 53% 177 42%
Guinea 420 59% 58,967 44% 37.99 40% 0 8 33% 193 62%
Ghana 400 39% 137,206 49% 45.04 51% 0 67% 35 48% 268 48%
Sudan 370 50% 18,762 49% 10.77 48% 0 0% 7 50% 107 59%
Kenya 274 42% 27,453 40% 10.12 32% 40 22% 9 39% 177 53%
Liberia 269 27% 88,535 45% 16.77 41% 0 15 43% 44 46%
Benin 260 20% 221,029 39% 107.35 47% 0 0% 44 44% 164 21%
Cameroon 172 40% 57,124 35% 44.53 32% 0 14 40% 111 43%
Togo 95 34% 147,274 54% 48.20 54% 1 50% 28 60% 52 27%
Djibouti 82 38% 28,559 60% 22.87 49% 0 5 60% 7 19%
Congo 65 15% 10,361 22% 13.14 22% 0 3 21% 20 11%
DRC 51 17% 1,812 8% 0.17 12% 0 9 32% 21 23%
Gambia 39 4% 47,233 40% 18.54 47% 0 0% 8 24% 21 4%
Equatorial
Guinea
22 17% 892 38% 6.32 42% 0 50% 1 53% 4 8%
Sao Tome &
Principe
2 44% 1,053 24% 0.30 20% 0 33% 1 30% 0
Source: Based on Dasgupta et al. 2009, Table 3;International Bank for Reconstruction and
Developmen /The World Bank: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges: A Comparative Analysis
of Impacts in Developing Countries, Public Research Working Paper 4901, 2009.

70 I CHAPTER 3

Healtb-malaria and dengue transmission
The time it takes foi the malaiia paiasite to matuie in the mosquito is
sensitive to tempeiatuie. The paiasite takes fifty-six uays to matuie at
18C, which is longei than the aveiage mosquito life span but only
nineteen uays at 22C anu eight uays at SuC. Figuie S-1u shows the
potential change in malaiia vectois foi 2C tempeiatuie inciease anu
associateu piecipitation changes.
127

The tiansmission of uengue fevei is sensitive to humiuity. Figuie S-11
shows how climate change is expecteu to change the aiea of lanu with a
climate suitable foi uengue fevei tiansmission anu, assuming no othei
contiibuting factois change, the piopoition of the human population that
woulu be at iisk.
128

Vulnerability
Funueu unuei the B0B's Nineiva Initiative, the Climate Change anu
Afiican Political Stability piogiam maps vulneiability to climate change as
shown in Figuie S-12.
129

Adaptation
The 0NEP-funueu AuaptCost Afiica pioject has estimateu the potential
auaptation costs in Afiica. While theie is high unceitainty, the integiateu
assessment mouels inuicate that the cential economic costs of climate
change foi Afiica coulu be equivalent to 1.S-S.u peicent of uBP each yeai
by 2uSu, as shown in Figuie S-1S.
130

127. Benii E.Z. Tonnang, Richaiu Y.N. Kangalawe, anu Pius Z. Yanua, "Pieuicting anu
mapping malaiia unuei climate change scenaiios: the potential ieuistiibution of
malaiia vectois in Afiica," Holorio }ournol 9, no. 111 (2u1u), Boi: 1u.1186147S-287S-
9-111. Publisheu online Apiil 2S, 2u1u.
128. S. Bales et al.,"Potential effect of population anu climate changes on global
uistiibution of uengue fevei: an empiiical mouel," Tbe loncet S6u (2uu2): 8Su-8S4.
129. }oshua W. Busby, Touu u. Smith, Kaiba L. White, anu Shawn N. Stiange, locotinq
Climote lnsecurity: Wbere ore tbe Host vulneroble Ploces in Africo. (Austin, Texas:
Robeit S. Stiauss Centei foi Inteinational Secuiity anu Law, 2u1u). This mateiial is
baseu upon woik suppoiteu by, oi in pait by, the 0S Aimy Reseaich Laboiatoiy anu
the 0S Aimy Reseaich 0ffice unuei contiactgiant numbei W911NF-u9-1-uu77.
1Su. P. Watkiss, T. Bowning, anu }. Byszynski, AJoptCost Project: Anolysis of tbe
Fconomic Costs of Climote Cbonqe AJoptotion in Africo (Naiiobi: 0NEP, 2u1u).


Figure 3-10. Cbange in distribution of tbe two most prevalent malaria
vectors {Anopbeles mosquitoes] for a rise of 2C Africa wide
temperature, 103 increase of summer rainfall, and 103 decrease in
winter rainfall

Figure 3-11. Population at risk of dengue fever

72 I CHAPTER 3

Figure 3-12. Composite vulnerability in Africa

Figure 3-13. Potential costs of adaptation to current and future
climate in Africa

FINDINCS UN CUNSEQUENCES
Climate change may have the gieatest impact on secuiity thiough its
inuiiect effects on conflict anu vulneiability. Nany ueveloping countiies
aie unable to pioviue basic seivices anu impiovements much less cope
with iepeateu suuuen-onset shocks anu accumulating slow-onset stiesses.
Climatic factois affect conflict thiough influence on foou piices, migiation
patteins, goveinment ievenues, competition foi watei, giazing lanu, anu
othei iesouices. The capacity of the inteinational Nu0 community to fill
ciitical gaps on a much laigei scale is at best unceitain.
CCAPS inuicates that social conflict-piotests, stiikes, iiots, intei-communal
violence, anu othei uniest have a stiong coiielation to iainfall.
Piecipitation in Afiica may become moie vaiiable biinging moie extieme
wet anu uiy yeais; anu, social conflict is moie common in extiemely wet
anu uiy yeais than in yeais of noimal iainfall.
Social conflict has been moie pievalent than aimeu conflict in Afiica in
iecent uecaues, iesulting in moie than twenty thousanu ueaths since 2uuu,
many of which came uuiing violent, politically uestabilizing episoues.
Climate change is an exaceibating factoi. It can be a contiibuting factoi to
conflict, but the unueilying political, economic, social, anu cultuial
contexts piobably will have a moie uiiect effect. uiievances uevelop,
mobilizations occui, anu violence eiupts moie easily wheie theie aie
weak, coiiupt, fiagile, oi faileu goveinments.
Climate change coulu intensify enviionmental oi iesouice pioblems that
communities aie alieauy facing by intensifying giievances, oveiwhelming
coping capacities, anu possibly spuiiing migiation anu uisplacement.
Climate change coulu also cieate new enviionmental pioblems that leau to
instability.
B0B anu the combatant commanus iecognize these conuitions. AFRIC0N
anu 0niteu States Southein Commanu (S00TBC0N) initiatives
incoipoiate enviionmental secuiity, the iole of climate change, anu
uisastei piepaieuness into theii secuiity coopeiation piogiams.

74 I CHAPTER 3

Addressing Climate Cbange Effects on African
Populations
As noteu in Chaptei 2 of this iepoit, climate change effects in Afiica
uestabilize fiagile states by oveiloauing the political systems anu eiouing
goveinmental legitimacy. Nany of these states ueteimine continueu 0S
success in achieving national secuiity objectives, such as secuiing stiategic
mineial anu fuel iesouice access; maintaining fieeuom of navigation
coveiing choke points anu sea lines of communication; combating
teiioiism; maintaining geopolitical influence; piomoting uemociacy; anu,
establishing stiong maiket economies. Thus, climate change by uefinition
affects 0S national secuiity inteiests. Noieovei, B0B has the potential to
piomote 0S national secuiity inteiests with confiuence-builuing measuies
anu by piomoting multilateial coopeiation anu communication.
Theie is compelling eviuence of the impoitance anu the potential of
B0B's measuies. Befoie the uioughts began in Suuan in the 198us, heiueis
fiom the noith anu faimeis fiom the south coexisteu anu shaieu the aiable
lanu. When uiought became a peimanent conuition, faimeis began to fence
in theii lanus to piotect incieasingly fiagile ciops. The iesulting tensions
multiplieu existing uiffeiences in ieligion, cultuie, anu ethnicity anu
unueipinneu the conflict in Baifui. Similai conflicts occuiieu acioss the
maigins of the Sahel, to incluue noithein Nigeiia, anu uiought has piomoteu
tensions between Zimbabwe anu South Afiica ovei foiceu migiation.
The questions, then, aie these: Bow aie those effects manifest. Bow shoulu
the pioblem be auuiesseu. What shoulu be the national secuiity
community's iole in managing it. To manage the pioblem, one shoulu begin
with a cleai enu state, uevelop stiategic concepts foi achieving it, anu
specify the iesouices necessaiy to succeeu.

A stable Afiica, wheie civilian goveinments, suppoiteu by uefense
coopeiation among capable militaiies, maintain iesilience to the effects of
climate change, anu in which intia anu inteistate conflict ovei iesouices is
not a thieat to secuiity anu stability; anu, wheie piepaieuness foi ieuucing
the iisk anu iesponuing to incieaseu anu natuial uisasteis, is a piioiity.


FINDINCS UN ADDRESSINC CLIMATE CHANCE EFFECTS UN AFRICAN
PUPULATIUNS
Enviionmental secuiity anu iesouice issues have been associateu with all
phases of the conflict cycle; climate change is alieauy implicateu in some
Afiican conflicts.
Climate change incieases the poiosity of boiuei aieas anu ungoveineu
spaces, especially in aieas of pastoial lanuscape.
Watei secuiity is a uiivei of conflict, an avenue foi peace builuing, anu a
ciitical element of economic giowth in Afiica.
Nany Afiican goveinments lack the capacity to auapt to the effects of
climate change. Regional militaiies have many of the technical, health,
engineeiing, anu manpowei capabilities necessaiy foi civil authoiity's
effoits to cieate climate change iesilience.
The successful coopeiation between the S00TBC0N-B0S Enviionmental
Bubs on climate change auaptation anu enviionmental secuiity coulu
easily be ieplicateu between AFRIC0N anu the thiee B0S Afiican Bubs.
This coopeiation woulu make effoits to builu climate change auaptation
capacity anu iesilience attainable.
Piivate sectoi coipoiations, such as the Coca-Cola Company, anu
nongoveinmental oiganizations, such as The Natuie Conseivancy anu
Woilu Wilulife Funu, have establisheu anu iespecteu piogiams in Afiica
auuiessing the climate-ielateu issues such as clean watei anu foou
secuiity that coulu infoim AFRIC0N effoits to builu iegional capacity.
Because of its wiuespieau occuiience acioss the continent, climate change
auaptation is a viable issue foi multilateial coopeiation anu a confiuence
builuing measuie foi intiastate anu inteistate conflict.
0SAIB's iegional anu bilateial missions coulu hainess AFRIC0N
engagement anu capacity builuing piogiams to suppoit 0S sustainable
uevelopment anu climate change initiatives.

Recommenuations aiising fiom the consequences of climate change
aie founu in Chapteis 4 anu S.

76 I CHAPTER 4

Cbapter 4. National Security
Community
This chaptei examines the ioles of the national secuiity community in
auuiessing climate change issues. Climate change is incieasingly
iecognizeu as having a multipliei effect foi existing tensions anu iegional
instabilities. It places auuitional stiess on the state political system,
complicating the ability of goveinments to meet the uemanus placeu on
the system by a suffeiing population anu by ieuucing system iesilience.
This can leau to a loss of legitimacy, inteinal conflict, state failuie,
population migiation, anu the giowth of extiemist iueology. Climate
change thieatens 0S national secuiity inteiests at the iegional levels.
This stuuy uoes not auuiess means to halt oi ieveise global climate
change. Lack of knowleuge of complex climate mechanisms makes any such
suggestion speculative at best. Bowevei, the 0niteu States has unueistanuing,
iesouices, anu skills that can blunt some effects of climate change.
131,132
The 0niteu States, howevei, has neithei the knowleuge noi the iesouices
neeueu to piouuce wiuespieau amelioiation. 0S iesouices must be focuseu
on the most seiious 0S national iisks. The 0niteu States must also ieach out
inteinationally to spieau the buiuen of auaptation to climate change.
Strategic Concepts for Addressing tbe
Cballenges
Stiategic concepts incluue:
Whole of goveinment coopeiation with meaningful suppoit
fiom B0B
Coopeiation with allies, Nu0s, anu those of common puipose
Nilitaiy to militaiy engagement anu capacity builuing
The cuiient 0S appioach to national secuiity inteiests ielateu to
climate change is baseu on thiee elements of national powei: uefense,

1S1. Attempts at geoengineeiing, on a global scale, to mouify oi ieveise climate change
aie especially uangeious. The knowleuge of the complete iange of factois affecting
Eaith's climate is so iuuimentaiy that climate engineeiing is viitually guaianteeu to
iesult in woise pioblems than any Nothei Natuie evei uieameu up.
1S2. }ames Rougei Fleming, Iixinq tbe Sky: Tbe CbeckereJ Eistory of Weotber onJ
Climote Control (New Yoik, NY: Columbia 0niveisity Piess, Septembei 2u1u).

ROLES OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNITY I 77
uiplomacy, anu economy. While othei 0S agencies can make valuable
contiibutions to this effoit, the Bepaitment of Befense, the Bepaitment of
State, anu the 0S Agency foi Inteinational Bevelopment, iefeiieu to heie
as "the S Bs," will ueteimine the success oi failuie of 0S effoits to ieuuce
the iisks associateu with climate change in aieas of the woilu of gieatest
ielevance to 0S national secuiity inteiests. Success in builuing coopeiation
on climate change auaptation will uepenu heavily on the effoits of these
thiee oiganizations, suppoiteu anu guiueu by:
An intelligence community analysis of wheie 0S national secuiity
inteiests aie most likely to be affecteu by iegional changes in climate
A iealistic assessment of the inuiviuual capabilities of these
oiganizations to affect climate change auaptation capacity builuing
in the coiiesponuing iegions be conuucteu
A synchionizeu plan that capitalizes on the stiengths of each
oiganization be cieateu anu implementeu
Neeting the physical impacts of climate change like changes in watei,
tempeiatuie, sea level, anu stoim violence aie mostly the piovinces of civil
engineeiing, hyuiology, eneigy, agiicultuie anu lanu use, anu
infiastiuctuie planning. The bulk of iesouices to auuiess local pioblems
must come fiom affecteu iegions. Bowevei, many of these aieas aie
impoveiisheu anu lack even basic technical knowleuge. To help auuiess
this shoitfall, the 0niteu States has the capability to builu anu euucate
local anu iegional cauies of engineeis, hyuiologists, planneis, agiicultuial
anu fisheiy specialists, anu meuical peisonnel to suppoit local iesilience
to climate shifts. A majoi tiaining effoit, similai to past 0S foieign militaiy
tiaining assistance piogiams, coulu be mounteu to euucate fielu peisonnel
in hyuiological, civil engineeiing, constiuction, agiicultuial, biological,
meuical, anu ciiminal justice ciitical skills in those countiies wheie
climate change can be auuiesseu thiough technical means. The 0niteu
States shoulu also leau an effoit to call on othei nations to assist with
similai tiaining anu euucation capabilities.
The 0niteu States anu its uevelopeu woilu allies shoulu be piepaieu to
suppoit, both technically anu financially, civil piojects that inciease
iesilience anu pioviue ways to auapt to foiecasteu climate change effects.
As in the case of foieign militaiy sales, such suppoit coulu seive to boost

78 I CHAPTER 4

woilu maikets foi constiuction anu agiicultuial equipment, seeus, anu
meuical supplies.
The conventional view of national secuiity is baseu on conflict anu
economic inteiests. Thieats to a state aie often seen in teims of teiiitoiy,
migiation, access to iesouices (eneigy, watei, foou, anu mateiials) oi
maikets. Climate change thieats aie much less focuseu. Buman secuiity
lies at the heait of the climate change thieat to 0S national secuiity.
Conventional national secuiity thieats aiise fiom human secuiity
oiigins.
133
Bealing with climate change iequiies a human secuiity-baseu
stiategy to pievent emeigence of national secuiity challenges.
As a nation, the 0niteu States has a ieputation foi being bettei at
auuiessing acute ciises than at sustaining effoits to iemeuy chionic
pioblems befoie they become uiie. Bistoiy suggests the 0niteu States is
able to uo both effectively. The Agiicultuial Extension Piogiam, in its fiist
one hunuieu yeais, leu a faim ievolution that uevelopeu new technology,
escalateu piouuctivity, battleu the Bust Bowl, anu uiamatically ieuuceu
the numbei of people iequiieu to feeu the nation. The Public Bealth
Seivice fosteieu changes in sanitation anu foou anu watei piocessing that
viitually eiauicateu common chiluhoou epiuemic uiseases. The 0S Aimy
Coips of Engineeis, since the eaily 18uus, anu the Buieau of Reclamation,
since the 189us, have alteieu the 0S iiveiine tianspoitation system,
enableu giowth in the watei-staiveu West, anu ieuuceu the impact of
seasonal floouing. Nounting each of these effoits iequiieu enuuiing
commitment to make changes in the countiy's inteiest. Counteiing climate
change's auveise effects on national secuiity will iequiie a similai long-
teim effoit.
Piotecting against climate change thieats to 0S national secuiity will
iequiie bioau-baseu action well befoie a conflict. In oiuei of incieasing
effectiveness, the spectium of national climate action iesponses incluue
kinetic militaiy opeiations, aiu aftei the effects of climate change aie
manifest, auaptation (encouiaging peimanent changes in the affecteu aiea
to cope with climate change effects), anu to uevelop inuigenous iesilience
in anticipation of climate change impact. To the extent that the natuie,
impact, anu location of uestiuctive influences of climate change can be

1SS. Sweuish Ninistiy of Befense, 0n Connectinq Climote Cbonqe witb Security onJ
ArmeJ Conflict (Bepaitment of Befence Analysis, Septembei 2u1u).

ieasonably pieuicteu, the most effective, least costly actions to piotect 0S
national secuiity lie at the uevelopment of inuigenous iesilience enu of the
iesponse spectium; the least effective, most costly lies at the kinetic
militaiy enu. Setting the iight piioiities, anu effectively engaging the iight
goveinment entities, will iequiie bioauei anu ueepei attention. Still, theie
is incieaseu sensitivity to the potential impacts of climate change anu the
neeu to auuiess them.
Foimei Secietaiy of Befense Robeit uates auuiesseu the impoitance of
iecognizing the Bepaitment of State anu 0SAIB as elements of national
secuiity. Secietaiy of State Billaiy Clinton spoke of the impoitance of
migiating uevelopment functions back to the Bepaitment of State anu
0SAIB. The 2u1u 0S National Secuiity Stiategy assigns the iesponsibility foi
auuiessing the climate change thieat to national secuiity to both B0S anu
0SAIB. No senioi-level Pentagon official has been assigneu iesponsibility foi
the B0B inteiest in climate change auaptation. While theie is a geneial
iecognition of the impoitance of the impacts of climate change to national
anu inteinational secuiity, theie is a neeu foi cleai top-uown guiuance to
pioactively auuiess climate change auaptation befoie it leaus to conflict oi
instability. Theie is a neeu foi cleai assignment of an inuiviuual anu
oiganization as the cooiuinating agency in the 0S goveinment iesponsible
foi climate change auaptation at the iegional level.
National leaueiship, inteiagency cooiuination, anu the stiategic
uocuments that govein policy uevelopment in Washington neeu to be
fuithei stiengtheneu. Still, at the iegional level, the fiamewoik foi
coopeiation on climate change capacity builuing exists. The iegional
missions of 0SAIB anu the Bepaitment of State Regional Enviionmental
Bubs aie cuiiently focusing on sustainable uevelopment anu
enviionmental uiplomacy in ways that auuiess such climate change
ielateu issues as watei iesouice management anu auaptive agiicultuial
piactices. These piogiams have successfully sought to uevelop host nation
anu iegional climate change iesilience anu shoulu be given consistent
combatant commanu suppoit. Pioviuing the suppoit of the combatant
commanu engagement activities woulu multiply the effectiveness of these
piogiams anu coulu maikeuly change the conuitions foi populations
impacteu by climate change. Seveial nations aie cuiiently facing new anu
giowing enviionmental challenges, many of which iequiie iegional
coopeiation to solve. Biinging nations togethei in a iegion to woik on a

80 I CHAPTER 4

common enviionmental pioblema common thieatcan auvance 0S
inteiests in ways that go fai beyonu the scope of the enviionmental issue
itself. The goveinment's commitment to a iegional stiategy complements
oui bilateial anu multilateial uiplomatic enviionmental effoits.
Buiing the Clinton Auministiation, the Bepaitment of State cieateu
the Regional Enviionmental Bub piogiam as the flagship foi its
enviionmental uiplomacy effoits. It was cieateu with the belief that,
"Biinging nations togethei in a iegion to woik on a common
enviionmental pioblema common thieatcan auvance inteiests in
ways that go fai beyonu the scope of the enviionmental issue itself."
134

These offices have thiiveu anu, uuiing subsequent auministiations, have
consistently biought multilateial coopeiation to enviionmental issues that
thieaten to uestabilize iegions. In 2uu9-2u1u, the Bepaitment of State
Regional Enviionmental Bub foi Cential Ameiica anu the Caiibbean
paitneieu with the 0S Southein Commanu to conuuct two climate change
anu secuiity events to ueteimine climate change auaptation thieats to the
iegion anu to uevelop iesponses. The seconu confeience was the iegion-
wiue, Cential Ameiica anu the Caiibbean Climate Change anu Secuiity
Confeience: fiom Stiategy to Action. Theie aie thiee Regional
Enviionmental Bubs in Afiica anu two in South anu Cential Ameiica.
In the 199us the Bepaitment of Befense establisheu the pieventive
uefense concept to avoiu costly conflict anu successfully sought
inteiagency coopeiation in its effoits to "mitigate the impacts of auveise
enviionmental actions leauing to inteinational instability."
135
Since then,
the iegional combatant commanueis have useu enviionmental secuiity as
an engagement vehicle anu have woikeu closely with the Bubs to builu
coopeiative ielationships among iegional states anu militaiy suppoit foi
civil authoiity anu uemociacy. B0B coopeiation with paitnei countiies
has been iegulaily suppoiteu by agencies such as the 0S Agency foi
Inteinational Bevelopment, 0S ueological Society, the Enviionmental
Piotection Agency, anu the Bepaitment of the Inteiioi. These builu
paitnei capacity anu capabilities to auuiess enviionmental secuiity issues
anu piomote stability. It is impoitant to unueistanu that this inteinational

1S4. Bepaitment of State, http:www.state.govgoeshub |Accesseu 8 August 2u11j.
1SS. Sheiii Wasseiman uoouman, Beputy 0nuei Secietaiy of Befense foi Enviionmental
Secuiity, Statement Befoie the Subcommittee on Installation anu Facilities, Nay 1S, 199S.

inteiagency coopeiation is ongoing anu alieauy auuiessing the secuiity
uimensions of many climate change issues.
FINDINCS UN STRATECIC CUNCEPTS FUR ADDRESSINC THE CHALLENCES
The least expensive way to ueal with thieats to 0S national secuiity will be
thiough anticipatoiy anu pieventative actions using piimaiily inuigenous
iesouices.
The 0niteu States neeus bettei insight into the political, economical, anu
geogiaphical impacts of climate change.
0S national secuiity thieats will iequiie goveinment-wiue, cooiuinateu
outieach in tiaining anu euucation, planning, engineeiing, agiicultuie,
health, justice, anu militaiy aieas.
No single peison oi oiganization in the 0S goveinment has been assigneu
cooiuinating agency iesponsibility foi climate change auaptation oi
cooiuinating inteiagency effoits to auuiess issues at the iegional level.
Theie is a neeu foi a stiategic level, inteiagency piocess to iuentify climate
change auaptation hotspots, ueteimine what iesouices each agency can
pioviue, anu synchionize coopeiation to cieate climate change iesilience.
Climate change effects, paiticulaily those ielateu to watei anu foou
secuiity, can eioue the legitimacy of fiagile states anu cieate the
conuitions teiioiists anu extiemists seek to exploit. Theiefoie, they aie
significant factois in combating teiioiism.
The 0niteu States can best use its infoimational anu technical capabilities
to builu anu suppoit local iesouices to anticipate anu auapt to climate
change impact.
The 0niteu States has uemonstiateu capabilities to ueal with issues similai
in scope anu similai to the potential impacts of climate change, e.g., the
Agiicultuial Extension Piogiam that leu a faim ievolution anu
tiansfoimeu the foou supply, the Public Bealth Seivice that fosteieu
changes in sanitation anu foou anu watei piocessing that viitually
eiauicateu common chiluhoou epiuemic uiseases, anu the 0S Aimy Coips
of Engineeis anu the Buieau of Reclamation, since the 189us, that alteieu
the 0S iiveiine tianspoitation system anu enableu giowth in the watei-
staiveu West.

82 I CHAPTER 4

The 0niteu States has uemonstiateu a capacity foi tiaining in the foieign
militaiy tiaining piogiams that coulu be expanueu to pioviue euucation anu
tiaining most ielevant to auapting to climate change, e.g., hyuiological, civil
engineeiing, constiuction, agiicultuial, biological, anu meuical tiaining.

lxuxter prepureJnexx unJ cllmute chunge
As Buiiicane Katiina anu the eaithquake that leu to the fall of the
Somoza goveinment in Nicaiagua maue cleai, natuial uisasteis that
expose a goveinment's lack of piepaieuness have quantifiable effects on
goveinmental legitimacy. Climate change will have a uisiuptive effect on
state systems, putting at iisk the iesouice base anu sustainability of the
goveinment. Reuucing the iisk anu iesponuing to iesulting natuial
uisasteis aie emeiging challenges foi local, iegional, anu state
goveinments. Lack of piepaieuness foi enviionmental challenges, such as
those in Tunisia, Egypt, anu floou-iavageu Pakistan can multiply tensions
fiom existing giievances anu leau to instability. Resilience, sustainability,
anu piepaieuness aie essential to avoiuing political instability anu
impoitant to any national secuiity community effoit to mitigate the
iegional effects of climate change.
It is useful to conceptualize the iole of the national secuiity
community in auuiessing this uestabilizing issue as cieating climate
change iesilient communities. N0AA was taskeu by Congiess in 1994 to
assess tsunami awaieness anu piepaieuness foi paits of the 0niteu States.
As a iesult of theii analysis anu ieseaich, N0AA uevelopeu a concept foi
mitigating the uamage of tsunamis. Calleu Tsunami Resilient Communities,
it was cieateu "to pioviue uiiection anu cooiuination foi tsunami
mitigation activities in the absence of a uisastei."
136
Recognizing that no
effoit woulu be successful without the suppoit of local communities,
N0AA uesigneu a plan to leveiage planning, euucation, anu awaieness to
minimize losses anu ieuuce fatalities anu piopeity uamage. The seven
vaiiables of iesilient communities aie uesigneu to enhance national, state,
anu local capabilities by ueteimining the thieat, piepaieuness, timely anu
effective wainings, piepaiation public outieach anu communication,

1S6. Loii Benglei, Stroteqic lmplementotion Plon for Tsunomi Hitiqotion Projects, N0AA
Technical Nemoianuum ERL PNEL-11S (National 0ceanic anu Atmospheiic
Auministiation, 1998) www.pmel.noaa.govpubsPBFueng2uSuueng2uSu.puf
|Accesseu August 2u11j.

ieseaich, anu inteinational cooiuination. This concept coulu easily be
auapteu to climate change auaptation anu woulu pioviue a cleai enu state
foi national secuiity community effoits.
The concept of iesiliency is in use by the 0niteu States Pacific
Commanu's Centei of Excellence foi Bisastei Nanagement anu
Bumanitaiian Assistance (C0E) as a fiamewoik to guiue its effoits in
uealing with the neai-teim effects of climate change. C0E, now in its seconu
uecaue, believes that the concept of societal iesilience pioviues the best
foim of uisastei piepaieuness to avoiu unnecessaiy uisastei iesponse
missions. It woiks with the inteiagency community, combatant commanus,
the inteinational community, anu Nu0s on uisastei piepaieuness anu
iesponse effoits anu uiew upon that expeiience to uiaft its climate change
iesiliency concept. As piesenteu by Ltuen (Ret) }ohn F. uoouman, C0E
Biiectoi, uuiing his auuiess to the iecent Pacific Commanu Enviionmental
Secuiity Confeience, the pillais of the climate change uisastei iesiliency
concept aie:
Societal capacity. In oiuei to confiont the challenges poseu by
uisasteis, the community must have a uevelopeu public health
system, uiveise infiastiuctuie, humanitaiian assistance
capabilities, anu iobust uisastei piepaiation.
Knowledge assets. An equitable euucation system, haiueneu
communication anu infoimation exchange mechanisms, anu
inviting enviionment foi ieseaich anu innovation aie ciitical to
ueveloping the intellectual capital to ensuie iesilience.
Resource independence. A iobust economy anu establisheu
sustainable uevelopment anu iesouice management piactices
enable a community to withstanu anu iecovei fiom the financial
anu enviionmental uisastei thieats.
Community cobesion. A community that shaies common values
anu objectives while iespecting uiveisity anu stiiving foi social
paiity can bettei woik collectively to iesist the effects of uisasteis
anu iebuilu in theii afteimath.
Cood governance. A iesilient community iequiies accountable
leaueiship, just legal anu iegulatoiy coues, appiopiiate secuiity anu
social piotection mechanisms, anu the ability to assess its iisks.

84 I CHAPTER 4

C0E's climate change auaptation piogiam, founueu on iesiliency anu
its suppoiting fiamewoik, ieinfoices many of the objectives of 0SAIB's
sustainable uevelopment concept anu the intent of the National Secuiity
Stiategy. The success of a iegional secuiity oiganization such as C0E in
ueveloping such a concept in coopeiation with othei inteiagency anu
inteinational oiganizations, anu applying this concept in its euucational
anu opeiational activities, uemonstiates the feasibility of a bioauei
goveinment appioach to climate change auaptation. This type of
cooiuination noimally occuis aftei the onset of the ciisis, as was the case
in Iiaq anu Afghanistan. The piovincial ieconstiuction teams anu the
agiibusiness uevelopment teams have successfully woikeu to ieuuce the
conuitions of uiought, watei, anu uiy lanu agiicultuie that extiemists seek
to exploit in Afghanistan. These conuitions miiioi conuitions alieauy
causing tensions in othei iegions fiom climate change effects. At the
opeiational anu tactical levels, much the same as with embassy countiy
teams, inteiagency coopeiation is possible anu essential to success.
At the stiategic level, success is also possible. Piioiities in the national
secuiity community aie iecognizeu with the cieation of an Inteiagency
Policy Committee that uevelops policy options, assigns iesponsibility, anu
cooiuinates actions. Climate change auaptation is an impoitant national
secuiity issue that affects iegional stability anu 0S national secuiity
inteiests, waiianting this level of piioiity. With top level guiuance anu
piioiity, agency stiategic uocuments, such as the National Nilitaiy Stiategy
oi the Bepaitment of State anu 0SAIB Stiategic Plan coulu speak to the
impoitance of inteiagency coopeiation anu cieate iegulai coopeiation anu
syneigy among valuable piogiams that aie alieauy in place. Without this
top level cooiuination anu piioiity, stiategic uocuments of the national
secuiity community may fail to stiess the impoitance of climate change
auaptation in a meaningful way, anu the opeiational anu tactical levels of
these oiganizations will only unueitake climate change auaptation if lowei-
level leaueiship ueems it impoitant. Noieovei, the oppoitunity to piomote
multilateial coopeiation in auuiessing a giowing thieat to iegional stability
anu to unueitake confiuence-builuing measuies that coulu leau to peace
builuing coulu be lost.

FINDINCS UN DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND CLIMATE CHANCE
uoveinments unable to meet challenges placeu on theii political systems
by the effects of climate change aie at gieatei iisk of failuie; this is
paiticulaily impoitant in those aieas wheie fiagile states aie pivotal to 0S
national secuiity inteiests.
Pioactively ieuucing iisk anu iesponuing to the incieaseu natuial uisastei
potential fiom climate change can best be achieveu by piomoting the
concept of climate change iesilience as a common theme to guiue iegional
inteiagency activities.

Wbole of Covernment
The goveinment has numeious oiganizations which can contiibute to
both the unueistanuing of climate change anu actions to auuiess neai-
teim iesponse anu auaptation.
US government orgunlzutlonx
The Bepaitment of State has establisheu a Special Envoy foi Climate
Change, anu ambassauois leau oui effoits abioau thiough the countiy team.
0SAIB has the Famine Eaily Waining System which pioviues inuicatois to
complement the Intelligence Community's monitoiing capabilities. The
Senatoi Paul Simon Watei foi the Pooi Act uiiects impioving access to
watei supplies anu sanitation, hygiene, anu watei management.
The Cential Intelligence Agency has a Centei foi Climate Change anu
has establisheu the Neasuiements of Eaith Bata foi Enviionmental
Analysis piogiam to infoim the scientific community of classifieu uata.
The Bepaitment of Agiicultuie has a Foieign Agiicultuial Seivice
which helps euucate faimeis woiluwiue how to impiove piouuctivity.
The Bepaitment of Eneigy manages an extensive laboiatoiy system
employing scientists of the highest calibei anu an office of Eneigy
Efficiency anu Renewable Eneigy which contiibutes lessons.
The Enviionmental Piotection Agency has a Climate Piogiam 0ffice
anu establishes policies anu stanuaius to mitigate climate change impacts.

86 I CHAPTER 4

The National 0ceanic anu Atmospheiic Agency collects anu publishes
ciitical uata on sea level anu atmospheiic changes.
The }et Piopulsion Laboiatoiy can pioviue uata on: 1. Caibon-
agiicultuie-foiestiy anu lanu management; 2. Piecipitation anu fiesh
watei; S. Sea level iise anu coastal suiveillance; anu, 4. ueogiaphic
hazaius-eaithquakes, volcanoes, anu tsunamis.
0S ueological Suivey uses a whole systems appioach to unueistanu
global change. It uocuments anu mouels past anu piesent climates anu
enviionmental change thiough geological, biological, anu hyuiological
piocesses, anu has iegulaily suppoiteu the combatant commanus.
The National Acauemy of Sciences anu the National Reseaich Council
publish ciitical stuuies by eminent scientists on the causes anu effects of
climate change.
137

The Piesiuent's 0ffice of Science anu Technology Policy thiough the
Piesiuent's Committee on Science anu Technology pioviues auvice anu
guiuance on the science of climate change.
Other US orgunlzutlonx
In auuition to goveinmental oiganizations, theie aie numeious
oiganizations which can pioviue assistance anu auvice. They incluue The
Natuie Conseivancy anu the Ameiican Reu Cioss, as well as uozens of
local anu univeisity gioups which pioviue ieseaich anu auaptation
piojects. Nu0s pioviue a wealth of expeitise anu assistance fiom both
with the 0niteu States anu inteinationally.
Internutlonul orgunlzutlonx unJ ulllex
0utsiue the 0niteu States, theie aie numeious effoits unueiway to
auuiess climate change anu its impacts. The 0niteu Nations pioviues
both militaiy anu humanitaiian iesponse to mitigate the iesults of
aggiession anu uisasteis. The 0niteu Nations Enviionmental Piogiam

1S7. Examples of these stuuies incluue: Americos Climote Cboices (2u11), Notionol
Security lmplicotions of Climote Cbonqe for 0S Novol Iorces (2u11), AJvoncinq tbe
Science of Climote Cbonqe (2u1u), limitinq tbe HoqnituJe of Iuture Climote Cbonqe
(2u1u), AJoptinq to tbe lmpocts of Climote Cbonqe (2u1u).

monitois anu auvises on the impacts to oui enviionment. The Woilu
Bank anu the Afiican Bevelopment Bank monitoi anu pioviue financial
assistance to auapt to the impacts of climate change. Biitain iecently co-
sponsoieu a S00TBC0N iegional Climate Change anu Secuiity
Rounutable in Colombia aimeu at builuing militaiy capacity to auuiess
the effects of climate change.
FINDINCS UN WHULE UF CUVERNMENT
Theie aie 0S goveinment oiganizations anu inteinational oiganizations
available to:
Pioviue inuicatois of penuing uisasteis
Suppoit effoits to pioactively builu auaptation anu iesilience
capacity
Assist in the iesponse to the effects of climate change
Pioviue scientific anu engineeiing suppoit to unueistanu anu help
mitigate change
Theie is no cential oiganization to assist agencies in unueistanuing
what iesouices aie available oi to cooiuinate theii effoits.

RECUMMENDATIUNS UN RULES UF THE NATIUNAL SECURITY CUMMUNITY
The Biiectoi of National Intelligence shoulu:
Establish, within an appiopiiate agency of the Intelligence
Community, an intelligence gioup to concentiate on the effects of
climate change on political anu economic uevelopments anu theii
implications foi 0S national secuiity
An impoitant focus of this effoit shoulu be to pioject human
secuiity changes that coulu uevelop into national secuiity
issues.
This gioup shoulu make extensive use of open souices, seek
to coopeiate with othei uomestic anu inteinational
intelligence effoits, anu iepoit most of its piouucts bioauly
within goveinment anu nongoveinment communities.
The intelligence gioup shoulu commission the Cential Intelligence
Agency's (CIA) Centei foi Climate Change anu Secuiity to piouuce

88 I CHAPTER 4

an assessment of iegional climate change hotspots that thieaten
human secuiity anu goveinmental legitimacy anu exaceibate
existing tensions. They shoulu use this assessment as a
confiuence-builuing measuie to piomote communication between
antagonistic peoples oi states. This uocument shoulu be the basis
foi inteiagency coopeiation at the stiategic anu iegional levels.
The Piesiuent's National Secuiity Auvisoi, in conjunction with the Council
on Enviionmental Quality, shoulu establish an inteiagency woiking gioup
to uevelop:
Cooiuinateu climate change policies anu actions acioss 0S
goveinment entities
A whole of goveinment appioach on iegional climate change
auaptation with a focus on piomoting climate change iesilience
anu maintaining iegional stability
The Piesiuent's National Secuiity Auvisoi shoulu continue to
emphasize stiategic inteiagency uocuments, such as the B0B
Stiategic uuiuance which uetails the link between climate change
effects anu the unueilying conuitions that teiioiists seek to exploit
anu shoulu uiiect ielevant oiganizations to consiuei this
ielationship in ueveloping theii iegional plans.
The Beputy Secietaiy of State anu the Beputy Secietaiy of Befense shoulu:
Follow the example of the successful foieign militaiy tiaining
assistance piogiam to fashion euucation anu tiaining piogiams in
the fielus most ielevant to auapting to climate change, e.g.,
hyuiology, civil engineeiing, constiuction, agiicultuie, biology,
anu public health.
Nake conflict avoiuance a piioiity of foieign assistance (incluuing
secuiity assistance anu foieign militaiy sales), uevelopment, anu
uefense concept uevelopment, anu planning.
Bevelop a stiategic communication message that links watei anu
foou secuiity anu incieaseu stoim intensity to iegional stability
anu 0S national secuiity.

ROLES OF THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE I 89
Cbapter 5. of tbe Department of Defense
Cuidance Sbaping Department of Defense
Efforts and Activities
The National Secuiity Stiategy uesciibes uangeis aiising fiom climate
change: ".new conflicts ovei iefugees anu iesouices; new suffeiing fiom
uiought anu famine; catastiophic natuial uisasteis; anu, the uegiauation
of lanu acioss the globe."
138
It fuithei emphasizes that effoits to mitigate
anu minimize the impact of these changes neeu to be puisueu both at
home anu abioau thiough inteinational coopeiation. Theie will be
significant impacts on B0B.
Piesiuent 0bama, in accepting the 2uu9 Nobel Peace in 0slo stateu
that, ".it is not meiely scientists anu activists who call foi swift anu
foiceful actionit is militaiy leaueis in my countiy anu otheis who
unueistanu that oui common secuiity hangs in the balance."
139
This point
was incluueu in the 2u1u Quauiennial Befense Review, the fiist B0B
stiategic guiuance uocument to give thoiough tieatment to the issues of
climate change anu eneigy. Thus, foi the fiist time, the two uocuments that
set the fiamewoik of uefense policy guiuance explicitly calleu foi the neeu
of B0B to auuiess uomestically anu inteinationally a full iange of issues
associateu with climate change. This guiuance has since been incoipoiateu
into othei B0B uocuments.
B0B cleaily has significant ioles in uealing with climate change. Foi its
inteinal neeus, B0B will neeu to assess how climate change can impact
ieauiness by affecting oi alteiing:
Existing anu planneu militaiy facilities anu equipment both at
home anu abioau
Tiaining, exeicises, anu ueployment of these foices
The health anu safety of militaiy peisonnel
The fiequency, location, anu types of militaiy opeiations, the neeu
foi new oi expanueu tiaining, anu new equipment neeus

1S8. White Bouse, Notionol Security Stroteqy, Nay 2u1u, p. 47.
1S9. Piesiuent Baiack 0bama's Nobel Peace Piize Acceptance Speech, 2uu9.

90 I CHAPTER 5

Exteinally, B0B must piepaie to suppoit the climate change initiatives
of the 0S goveinment as a whole. B0B can, anu will, be expecteu to
pioviue ciitical suppoit to inteiagency climate change effoits to uiiect
neai-teim activities anu auaptation towaius conflict pievention. B0B will
also neeu to play a leau iole in militaiy to militaiy coopeiation with othei
nations to enhance theii capacity anu iesilience to ueal with the impacts of
climate change. Combatant commanus will neeu to integiate climate
change neai-teim iesponse anu auaptation into theii theatei secuiity
coopeiation piogiams anu campaign plans. Tangible steps may incluue
iuentifying iegional climate change thieats to stability, builuing the
capacity of iegional militaiies to suppoit civilian authoiity in auuiessing
these thieats, assisting in monitoiing anu uata collection, anu engaging
with foieign militaiies on uisastei piepaieuness.
B0B will neeu oiganization to auuiess the full iange of inteinational
climate change-ielateu issues anu theii impact on the evolution of B0B's
missions. Cuiiently multiple B0B offices aie auuiessing climate change
anu eneigy issues with a wiue iange of peispectives anu with limiteu
unifying guiuance. This fiagmenteu appioach is inauequate to the neeu.
The neeu is foi claiity in iesponsibility anu accountability. The neeu is foi
a leau office in the 0ffice of the Secietaiy of Befense (0SB)an office
uesignateu as the centializeu B0B point of contact to seive as the
cooiuinating authoiity within B0B anu to act as the uesignateu B0B
iepiesentative oi inteiface in ielevant inteiagency activities. Similaily,
each of the Seivices anu the }oint Staff neeu to uesignate specific leaus
within theii oiganizations. The cuiient geneial guiuance neeus to be
tianslateu into specific iequiiements to pioviue executable oiueis to the
Seivices anu the combatant commanus to auuiess these issues moie
systematically anu compiehensively.
The National Secuiity Stiategy, the Quauiennial Befense Review, anu
othei uocuments have stiesseu that climate change impacts national
secuiity. It is impoitant foi all elements of the B0B to unueistanu that
climate change can, anu will, impact its ability to caiiy out B0B missions
now anu in the futuie. The issues impact the combatant commanus, the
militaiy uepaitments, anu at least some elements of the }oint Staff: }2 foi
pioviuing iequiieu intelligence infoimation, }4 foi logistics anu
installations, }S foi assessing iegional stability anu countiy-specific
impacts, anu }8 foi pioviuing the iequiieu iesouices. Theie aie ongoing

Seivices' initiatives ielevant to climate change anu uisastei iisk ieuuction
anu the impact on theii secuiity inteiests anu opeiations.
The 0S Navy has taken a foiwaiu-leaning appioach, initially focusing
on incieaseu Aictic opeiations iesulting fiom climate change. Navy
attention has since expanueu to incluue assessments of the potential
offeieu by incieaseu paitneiships with othei aimeu foices, the impacts of
sea level iise on installations, anu the potential foi incieaseu humanitaiian
assistanceuisastei ielief missions. The 0ceanogiaphei of the Navy heaus
the Task Foice on Climate Change anu issueu a Climate Change Roaumap
signeu by the vice Chief of Naval 0peiations in Nay 2u1u. This ioaumap
outlines the Navy's appioach to obseiving, pieuicting, anu auapting to
climate change in the 2u1u-2u14 time fiame. It incluues incoipoiating
climate change impacts on national secuiity into wai college couises anu
stiategy guiuance uocuments; beginning to uefine the iequiiements of a
next geneiation opeiational anu climatic enviionmental pieuiction
capability; incluuing climate change consiueiations in tiaining anu
planning; anu puisuing inteinational coopeiation to enhance the Navy's
capacity to assess, pieuict, anu auapt to climate change.
The Naiine Coips' expeuitionaiy eneigy anu watei piogiam focuses
on expeuitionaiy solutions foi sustainable eneigy, which coulu have
applicability to small oi ueveloping nations auuiessing climate change-
ielateu impacts, paiticulaily with iespect to those with limiteu
infiastiuctuie.
The 0S Aimy's climate change-ielateu initiatives have iesiueu
piincipally with the 0SACE. 0n the uomestic siue, the 0SACE has been
taskeu to examine the effects of sea level iise on its installations in the
continental 0niteu States. Inteinationally, the 0SACE has been woiking
with othei nations on watei-ielateu issues, such as watei availability,
conflict iesolution scenaiios, anu watei iesouice opeiations infiastiuctuie
uevelopment in foieign opeiations.
Aii Foice capabilities incluue its significant suite of meteoiological
uata collection, atmospheiic assessments, obseivational capabilities, anu
satellites. In auuition, the Aii Foice pioviues aii tianspoitation anu civil
engineeiing units vital to uisastei iesponse missions.

92 I CHAPTER 5

The National uuaiu offeis othei impoitant assets that can be uiawn
upon by the combatant commanus to suppoit activities in theii A0Rs.
Notably, the State Paitneiship Piogiam has establisheu ielationships
between vaiious state National uuaius anu 62 countiies thioughout the
woilu. Biawing on the expeitise that its peisonnel biing fiom theii civilian
occupations, the National uuaiu suppoits 0S national secuiity goals anu
assists in the achievement of iespective theatei secuiity coopeiation anu
inuiviuual countiy campaign plan objectives. It is able, foi example, to help
builu capacity in paitnei nations in aieas such as uisastei piepaieuness,
iesouice management, anu othei topics ielateu to climate change effects.
A numbei of existing piogiams anu activities suppoit the Seivices' anu
combatant commanus' neeus foi climate change-ielateu initiatives. As
noteu above, the Navy Task Foice on Climate Change anu 0SACE have
impoitant vehicles foi unueitaking such woik. In auuition, both the 0ffice
of the Secietaiy of Befense foi Policy (00SB(P)) anu the geogiaphic
combatant commanus can uiaw upon the Befense Enviionmental
Inteinational Coopeiation Piogiam, manageu by the Enviionmental
Reauiness anu Safety office in 0ffice of the Beputy 0nuei Secietaiy of
Befense foi Installations anu Enviionment. BEIC is uesigneu to suppoit
engagement activities with othei nations' uefense institutions.
As an example of woik at the combatant commanu level, the AFRIC0N
Enviionmental Secuiity Piogiam, woiking with 0S goveinment anu
inteinational paitneis, is alieauy in the piocess of implementing a seiies
of climate change-ielateu activities, such as coastal eiosion anu watei
secuiity assessments, incoipoiating the paiticipation of civilian anu
militaiy stakeholueis alike. The Afiica Paitneiship Station iepiesents
anothei valuable piogiam to help builu maiitime secuiity capacity in a
host of Afiican nations. The themes auuiesseu unuei the piogiam can
easily be tailoieu to incluue those ielateu to climate change anu uisastei
iisk ieuuction.
FINDINCS UN CUIDANCE
B0B has unique capabilities anu iesouices to help ueal with climate
change anu uisastei iisks to incluue specializeu expeitise (e.g.,
engineeiing, hyuiology, logistics, aii anu sea lift, anu innovative ieseaich).

B0B's well-establisheu, long-teim planning capability anu the engagement
piogiams of the combatant commanus can contiibute to pioviuing
bioauei anu highei quality climate change infoimation to the uomestic
anu inteinational community.
B0B capacity neeus to be piesenteu with sensitivity to othei agencies with
moie limiteu iesouices but with authoiities anu manuate to leau the effoit.
B0B cuiiently engages in a iange of appioaches to engaging with the
inteiagency on climate change. Inuiviuual offices biing inuiviuual
peispectives anu equities to theii iespective inteiagency uiscussions but
have not systematically iecognizeu climate change auaptation as a
significant iegional iequiiement foi stability.
The 0ffice of the 0nuei Secietaiy of Befense foi Acquisition, Technology
anu Logistics (00SB(AT&L)) iepiesents B0B in inteiactions with the
Council on Enviionmental Quality.
The Beputy Assistant Secietaiy of Befense foi Paitneiship, Stiategy anu
Stability 0peiations inteiacts with National Secuiity Staff on matteis
peitaining to uevelopment.
The }oint Staff }S Biiectoiate, Stiategic Plans anu Policy, anu the Beputy
Assistant Secietaiy of Befense foi Stiategy woik with National Secuiity
Staff on matteis of stiategic planning.
The appieciation acioss the elements of B0B that climate change anu
uisastei iisk ieuuction have impoitant implications foi its ioles anu
missions vaiies acioss Seivices anu acioss the combatant commanus.
Theie aie paiallels between climate change touay anu enviionmental
secuiity in the 198u-2uuu time peiiou. 0SB uevelopeu an unueistanuing
of, anu competency in, enviionmental secuiity which was cooiuinateu
with the ielevant iegional offices within 00SB(P) anu was available to the
combatant commanus anu 00SB(P) in theii bilateial anu multilateial
engagement activities.
Climate change is cuiiently having a majoi impact on the uemanus of
militaiy opeiations in the Aictic. B0B will neeu auuitional capabilities to
meet the uemanus of the expanueu Aictic mission. Foi example, climate
change is cieating an unfunueu manuate foi auuitional ice bieaking
capability, but ice bieakeis aie unuei the authoiity of the National Science
Founuation, not unuei militaiy authoiity.

94 I CHAPTER 5

RECUMMENDATIUNS UN CUIDANCE
The Beputy Secietaiy of Befense shoulu:
Establish a B0B-wiue cooiuinating policy boaiu foi climate
change impacts on national secuiity. This boaiu's functions shoulu
incluue:
A cooiuinating iole on climate change infoimation fiom the
stiategic anu opeiational peispective. This woulu incluue
assessing implications foi the foice stiuctuie, ueployment
options, etc.
Compiling anu assessing climate change effects infoimation
acioss the geogiaphic combatant commanus to iuentify
implications foi iegional stability anu the uevelopment of
global anu iegional foieign militaiy assistance piogiams.
B0B's inteiagency iepiesentative foi climate change
auaptation matteis.
Seiving as the focal point foi infoimation, web-enableu, that
can be accesseu by othei 0ffice of the Secietaiy of Befense
(0SB) offices as well as the }oint Staff, Seivices, anu
combatant commanus.
Expanu the authoiities of the 0peiational Eneigy Plans anu
Piogiams 0ffice to incluue opeiational climate change issues.
Biiect the establishment of a piogiam of climate change
auaptation pilot piojects in conceit with ielateu piogiams at
0SAIB anu othei agencies to iuentify, solicit, anu funu pilot
piojects focuseu on specific auaptation sectois anu locales (e.g.,
management of iegions oi villages in Afiica anu Cential Asia).
Examples of pilot piojects anu suggesteu activities might incluue,
but aie not limiteu, to:
Embiace anu augment the Woilu Climate Reseaich Piogiam
C0RBEX foi one of the sub-iegions in Afiica. Apply C0RBEX in
conceit with an assessment activity similai to the Euiopean
PR0BENCE pioject.
Extenu the obseivational, moueling, anu synthesis assessment
capabilities applieu touay in the 0niteu States in the 0ppei
Coloiauo Rivei Basin to a piioiity watei iesouice uistiict in
Afiica, peihaps linkeu with the Nile Basin initiative.

Apply coastal hot spot pilot piojects focuseu on offeiing local-
scale iisk assessment anu planning foi integiateu sea level
anu stoim impacts on the coupleu watei-eneigy-waste
iesouices anu physical infiastiuctuies foi megacities such as
Lagos, Kaiachi, anu Bahka.
Engage the 0SuCRP, inteinational ieseaich piogiams, B0B
commanus anu theii in-countiy secuiity paitneis, anu
inteinational aiu agencies such as 0SAIB in iuentifying
oppoitunities to shaie climate change-ielateu infoimation
anu biinging moie visibility into stakeholueis' activities.
Focus on neai-teim, achievable, anu measuiable goals to
uevelop anu uemonstiate enu-to-enu thieaus of coie
infoimation systems while inciementally builuing in-countiy
capacity anu competence.
0SB, 0ffice of the 0nuei Secietaiy of Befense foi Policy anu the Biiectoi,
}oint Staff shoulu uiiect uevelopment of a B0B stiategic ioaumap foi
climate change-ielateu effoits that builus on the fiamewoik laiu out in the
Navy Climate Change Roaumap to:
Ensuie that the guiuance to the combatant commanueis, once
signeu, is consiueieu to be auequate by the Seivices anu
combatant commanus foi tianslating the bioau-level guiuance
offeieu in the Quauiennial Befense Review into actionable
iequiiements.
Biiect that combatant commanu missions incluue non-combat
suppoit to auuiess seiious climate change-inuuceu 0S national
secuiity vulneiabilities.
The Beputy 0nuei Secietaiy of Befense foi Installations anu Enviionment
shoulu assemble an inventoiy of ciitical facilities anu infiastiuctuie to
incluue an assessment of vulneiability to climate change effects anu the
means to auapt.
The Biiectoi, }oint Staff shoulu:
Cieate a holistic appioach to climate change, integiating effoits of
its ielevant uiiectoiates: }2 (Intelligence), }4 (Logistics), }S
(Stiategic Plans anu Policy), anu }8 (Foice Stiuctuie, Resouices,
anu Assessment Biiectoiate).

96 I CHAPTER 5

Requiie that climate change anu uisastei iisk ieuuction be
integiateu into tiaining anu exeicises.
The Secietaiies, Chiefs of the Seivices, anu heaus of uefense agencies shoulu:
Bettei integiate climate change anu uisastei iisk ieuuction
consiueiations into exeicises, tiaining, anu euucational mateiials.
Establish metiics focuseu on iisk ieuuction to minimize the
impact of climate change on militaiy anu suppoit opeiations,
foices, piogiams, anu facilities.
Bevelop guiuance to ensuie climate change iesilience in B0B
pioject uesigns anu constiuction by incoipoiating climate change
iisk into uesign stanuaius foi facilities anu installations, with
emphasis on the elements ielateu to eneigy intensive anu watei
intensive uses.
The Secietaiies anu Chiefs of the Seivices shoulu:
Assess the Seivices' engineeiing oiganizations anu the cost-
benefits of using them in assisting climate change auaptation.
0tilize militaiy to militaiy engagement oppoitunities with coalition
paitneis to enhance iesilience to climate change impacts anu
uisastei iisk ieuuction capacities. In so uoing, they shoulu expanu
consiueiation of ioles foi the National uuaiu anu ieseives. (Foi
example, knowleuge of tiauitionally non-militaiy skills neeueu to
iesponu to climate change thieats is often founu in the ieseives.)
Examine tasking authoiities foi uomestic anu inteinational
iesponse to natuial uisastei oi othei uisastei iisk iesponse
situations. Foi example, the National uuaiu coulu biing impoitant
assets to an inteinational uisastei, as it alieauy uoes in iesponuing
to uomestic uisasteis.
0niteu States Noithein Commanu, with suppoit fiom the Navy anu Coast
uuaiu, shoulu iuentify the assets that will be neeueu to opeiate in the
Aictic to incluue communication assets, peisonnel tiaining, ice bieakeis,
anu othei equipment.

Combatant Command Roles, Responsibilities,
and Capacity
Each combatant commanu has unique missions anu piioiities. Bowevei,
theie is a univeisal neeu foi each combatant commanu to consiuei the
potential climate change anu uisastei iisk ieuuction impacts on theii
ieauiness to meet mission neeus in theii A0R. 0ne example of combatant
commanu infoimation iequiiements, AFRIC0N neeus uetaileu assessments
within its A0R of climate anu natuial iesouice vulneiabilities, such as
weathei, foou, anu watei. This infoimation is ciucial foi uefining AFRIC0N's
opeiational inteiests anu iequiiements anu also foi iuentifying piioiities in
its inteiactions with Afiican nations. In effect, such assessments aie
analogous to uoing a national impact assessment at the iegional level. These
assessments woulu:
Iuentify aieas, countiies, anu iegions wheie the impact of climate
change on stability anu 0S secuiity inteiests is gieatest.
Iuentify the natuie anu potential scope of the most likely impacts.
Iuentify what capacity builuing measuies shoulu be unueitaken to
auuiess these impacts.
This infoimation is essential foi AFRIC0N to uevelop its piioiities foi
iesouice allocation. The ciiteiia foi funuing woulu be a combination of the
countiy's stiategic impoitance to 0S secuiity inteiests, the countiy's own
capacity foi auuiessing the impacts, the potential seveiity of the impacts,
anu possible spill-ovei effects.
Each combatant commanu shoulu incluue in its objectives:
Beveloping anu enhancing host nation militaiy capacity to
builu iesilience to climate change effects
Raising the level of awaieness of these issues with othei
paitnei nations anu theii militaiies
Taking into consiueiation capacity infiastiuctuie inteiests of
the 0niteu States
Again taking AFRIC0N as an example, it has useu vehicles such as the
Afiica Paitneiship Station, Afiican Enueavoi, the BEIC piogiam, the
National uuaiu State Paitneiship Piogiam, anu the Bumanitaiian anu Civic
Assistance piogiam to:

98 I CHAPTER 5

Enhance capacity on lanu, at sea, anu in the aii; piomote
inteiopeiability
Pioviue meuical anu veteiinaiy assistance; piepaie foi ciisis
iesponse
Plan anu piepaie foi uisastei ielief
This is not an exhaustive list of the piogiams AFRIC0N has utilizeu oi
of its engagement activities; iathei, is it offeieu as an illustiation of
existing iesouices that can suppoit AFRIC0N effoits to pievent the
uestabilizing effects of climate change.
0niteu States Special 0peiations Commanu has impoitant engagement
activities that can similaily incoipoiate climate change anu uisastei iisk
ieuuction consiueiations. This is paiticulaily impoitant given the
implications of climate change effects foi fiagile state legitimacy anu
combating teiioiism. 0niteu States Tianspoitation Commanu will neeu to
piepaie to iesponu to uisastei ielief missions anu also to supply foices in
the Aictic as that mission evolves.
The ultimate objectives foi each combatant commanu aie to builu the
capacity to opeiate successfully in a climate-changeu milieu anu the
capacity of host nation militaiies to auuiess climate change effects that
thieaten iegional stability.
FINDINCS UN CUMBATANT CUMMAND RULES, RESPUNSIBILITIES, AND
CAPACITIES
Climate change anu natuial iesouice issues shoulu be vieweu as cioss-
cutting issues iathei than pieuominantly the concein of the }4 (Logistics).
Climate change will have impacts acioss the commanu to incluue; planning,
logistics, tiaining, anu ielationship-builuing with nations in the A0R.
An inteiagency appioach is essential to auuiessing climate-change ielateu
topics as many of the themes aie outsiue the manuate of B0B-specific
iesponsibilities.
S00TBC0N anu AFRIC0N offei useful mouels foi auuiessing climate
change-ielateu issues. 0niteu States Pacific Commanu has opteu to use its
Paitneiship 0ffice (}9) to leau on these issues. Whatevei the appioach,
these issues cut acioss the }-staff stiuctuie.
The combatant commanus neeu focal points in 0SB anu the }oint Staff.

Regional 0S militaiy commanus have manageiial anu technical expeitise
anu access to iesouices, like tianspoitation, necessaiy to suppoit anu,
when appiopiiate, leau 0S anu inteinational effoits to amelioiate climate
change thieats to 0S national secuiity.
Theie aie iesouices outsiue those noimally tappeu by the combatant
commanus to help auuiess climate change anu uisastei iisk ieuuction
themes, e.g., B0B's Nineiva Initiative, engineeiing seivices, the National
uuaiu, anu 0SB-iun piogiams. Foi example, much of the 0S militaiy civil
affaiis expeitise iesiues in National uuaiu anu ieseive units.

RECUMMENDATIUNS UN CUMBATANT CUMMAND RULES, RESPUNSIBILITIES,
AND CAPACITIES
The geogiaphic combatant commanus shoulu:
Iuentify eaily waining inuicatois foi those aieas ciitical to B0B's
mission set.
Incoipoiate the guiuance fiom the Quauiennial Befense Review
anu classifieu guiuance to the combatant commanueis on eneigy,
secuiity, anu climate change into theatei campaign plans.
Cieate a uemanu signal by aiticulating the neeu to unueistanu the
implications of climate change anu iesouice scaicities in theii
iegion to suppoit theii campaign plans.
Incluue in theii theatei campaign plans eneigy, foou, watei, anu
uisastei iisk ieuuction stiategies anu plans foi ieuucing
vulneiabilities within theii iespective A0Rs.
Bainess moie systematically iesouices beyonu the tiauitional
combatant commanu stiuctuie, to incluue the National uuaiu anu
its State Paitneiship Piogiam, seivice engineeiing units such as
0SACE anu Naval Facilities Commanu, anu 0SB-leu piogiams such
as BEIC anu the Stiategic Enviionmental Reseaich anu
Bevelopment Piogiam.
Conuuct systematic iegional oi even moie localizeu impact
assessments to iuentify tienus anu wheie theii iesouices shoulu
be focuseu. To this enu, each shoulu iequest that the CIA's Climate
Change anu Secuiity Centei pioviue a iepoit on climate change
effects anu hot spots in theii iespective aieas of iesponsibility.

100 I CHAPTER 5

Piogiams such as the Stiauss Centei's piogiam on Climate Change
anu Afiican Political Stability, funueu thiough B0B's Nineiva
Initiative, coulu also be utilizeu in such unueitakings.
Incluue as a Tiei 1 objective enhancing the capacity of host nation
militaiies anu civil iesponse ieauiness gioups to plan foi, anu
iesponu to, natuial uisasteis (e.g., floous, coastal stoim suiges,
anu uioughts).
Integiate into theii humanitaiian assistanceuisastei ielief anu
othei exeicise plans auuitional climate change-ielateu aspects.
These exeicises shoulu incluue inteiagency activity.
Piomote the concept of cooiuinateu management of shaieu
natuial iesouices like watei.

CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 101

Information S

As intiouuceu in Chaptei 1, the cuiient collection of obseivational
anu mouel assets while impoitant foi conuucting exploiatoiy climate
science uo not constitute a iobust, sustaineu, oi compiehensive iesouice
foi geneiating actionable climate foiecasts. Beveloping auequate climate
piojections will iequiie contiibutions fiom, anu coopeiation within, the
0S goveinment of N0AA, NASA, 0S ueological Suivey, anu the Cential
Intelligence Agency; the Bepaitments of Agiicultuie, Befense, Eneigy,
anu State; anu otheis with climate, geogiaphic, economic, social, anu
political skills. Since much of this expeitise lies outsiue the goveinment,
univeisities, the piivate sectoi, anu Nu0s will also neeu to be involveu.
0nueistanuing a climate-changeu futuie will iequiie the iichest possible
effoit, encompassing the woilu's best expeitise. As with any mysteiy
140

the most effective way to tackle unueistanuing it may be to tieat it, foi
the most pait, as an open question, tianspaient to all engageu in its
stuuy. Compaitmentalizing climate change impact ieseaich can only
hinuei piogiess.
Climate Cbange Risk Management
Effective planning anu execution of climate change iesponses aie
piimaiily exeicises in iisk management. This is a piocess (Figuie A-1)
involving the collection anu evaluation of infoimation, quantification of
unceitainties, evaluation of iisks (likelihoou anu impact), anu iesponse
options, uecision-making, anu iteiative ie-evaluation.
141
Climate change iisk
management shaies many of the infoimation iesouices anu uecision-
making piocesses involveu in othei uecision-making piocesses alieauy
employeu by goveinments, businesses, anu othei oiganizations.
142
It shaies
theii limitations anu also intiouuces auuitional challenges with implications
on the suppoiting infoimation iesouices:
Incieaseu climate anu ecosystem vaiiability anu extiemes

14u. ulauwell (2uu9).
141. Ameiica's Climate Choices: Panel on Infoiming Effective Becisions anu Actions
Relateu to Climate Change, National Reseaich Council, lnforminq on Fffective Response
to Climote Cbonqe (Washington, B.C.: The National Acauemies Piess, 2u1u).
142. Nabey et al. (2u11).

102 I APPENDIX A

Climateecosystem thiesholu ciossing events oi tipping points
Coupling acioss multiple scales (teleconnections)
Inteiaction between human iesponse effoits

Figure A-1. Tbe concept of an iterative, adaptive risk management
process for climate cbange
In the absence of climate change, tiauitional iisk management often
ielies on ielatively steauy-steauy assumptions with iegaius to
enviionmental vaiiability anu extiemes. Risk management foi uioughts,
floous, huiiicanes, anu geohazaius in most cases ielies on infoimation
baseu on cuiient obseivations anu ielatively iecent histoiical tienus fiom
uecaues to centuiies. The uifficulty of managing iisk foi ielatively
munuane hazaius was viviuly uemonstiateu in the Naich 2u11 events in
}apan following a magnituue 9.u eaithquake, tsunami, anu subsequent
cascauing failuies of seveial nucleai ieactois.
143
The potential of climate

14S. At the time of this wiiting (Naich 2S, 2u11) opeiatois at the Fukushima nucleai
plant in }apan aie still stiuggling to gain contiol of cooling systems of ieactois anu fuel
stoiage pools uamageu by a 46 foot tsunami tiiggeieu by an offshoie magnituue 9.u
eaithquake two weeks ago. Accoiuing to piess iepoits, the Fukushima plant's tsunami
piotection featuies (mouest augmentation aiounu a 1S foot natuial seawall) weie
uesigneu using a "ueteiministic" iathei than piobabilistic appioach (i.e., baseu on
iecent histoiical expeiience with tsunamis iathei than auuiessing ieasonable woist-
case scenaiio which tianspiieu). The iisk of unueiestimating events with so calleu
"long tail" piobabilistic uistiibutions is exaceibateu foi climate change scenaiios.

change to mouify the steauy backgiounu state anuoi to significantly
inciease the fiequency anu intensity of climatic extiemes such as heat
waves, uiought, heavy piecipitation, stoim suiges, anu tiopical cyclones
will likely stiess the ability of existing infoimation iesouices to accuiately
iepiesent the uistiibution of those events. Climate change also intiouuces
the possibility of abiupt, potentially iiieveisible thiesholu-ciossing events
oi tipping points, in which the Eaith's climate system unueigoes a non-
lineai iesponse, essentially shifting into a qualitatively uiffeient anu
pooily chaiacteiizeu new stability iegime,
144
a topic exploieu fuithei in
Appenuix B. Special Topics.
Climate change involves uiiect coupling acioss a iange of spatial anu
tempoial scales that both oveilaps anu exceeus the bounuaiies of tiauitional
iisk management piocesses. Conventional iisk assessment foi tiopical
cyclones (huiiicanes) anu othei seveie weathei cuiiently leveiages
obseivations anu mouels with global scope to piouuce localiegional scale
foiecasts anu nowcasts. Bowevei, weathei foiecasts anu suppoiting
obseivations focus on timescales ianging fiom houis to uays wheieas
climate foiecastoi piojection time hoiizons span seasons to uecaues. Recent
uisasteis such as the Eyjafjallajokull (2u1u) volcanic eiuption, the Sumatia
(2uu4) tsunamis, anu }apan (2u11) eaithquakes offei staik ieminueis of the
fai-ieaching impacts of localizeu anu ielatively shoit-liveu events on global
aii tianspoitation anu coastal populations. Bowevei, such events aie uiiven
by geologic iathei than climatic piocesses. Thus, iisk management foi them,
to some extent, will iemain invaiiant to futuie climate change.
145

The El Nio Southein 0scillation is a bettei example of a climate
teleconnection, a stiong, low-fiequency (e.g., ~months) coiielation with
planetaiy scales. Theie aie numeious examples in the liteiatuie inuicating
the piesence anu impoitance of such laige-scale coupling meuiateu via
ocean-atmospheie ciiculation anu leauing to iemote-iegion impacts.
These incluue tiopical Pacific-Noith Ameiican patteins associateu with
ENS0, lowei-fiequency vaiiations between the Pacific 0ceanENS0, the
Asian monsoon anuoi Sahel iainfall, anu the influence of the Inuian

144. Lenton et al., "Tipping elements in the eaith's climate system," ProceeJinqs of tbe
Notionol AcoJemy of Sciences 1uS, no. 6 (2uu8): 1786-179S.
14S. Tsunami thieat potential, which vaiies stiongly with local tiues, winus,
topogiaphy, anu bathymetiy can aiguably be amplifieu by iising sea levels.

104 I APPENDIX A

0cean on EuiopeanAtlantic climate.
146
0thei teleconnections span the
bounuaiies of geophysics anu economics, such as C02 emissions embouieu
in inteinational tiaue,
147
the lateial tianspoit pioblem faceu by caibon
accounting systems with uiiect implications foi the atmospheie anu
climate foicing.
Finally, the iesponse space foi climate change iisk management is
laige, spanning mitigation (effoits to minimize climate change by
stabilizing gieenhouse gas emissions), auaptation (pioactive anu ieactive
effoits to minimize the societal impacts of climate change), geoengineeiing
(a wilucaiu option uesciibeu fuithei in Appenuix B), anu acceptance (no
action). Fuitheimoie, the inteiactions between these iesponse options aie
complex anu unceitain, both in teims of uecision-making (economic anu
policy consiueiations) anu the effects on the Eaith system.
148
Foi example,
in the pan-tiopics, public anu piivate lanuowneis aie alieauy foiceu to
choose between pieseiving a stanu of foiest to ieceive a caibon offset
cieuit unuei the 0niteu Nations piogiam to Reuuce Emissions fiom
Befoiestation anu Foiest Begiauation veisus planting biofuels veisus
planting giain foi foou, with implications on the caibon-cycle
(contiibuting to climate change), ecosystems, wateisheus, anu agiicultuie.
In piactice, given the wiue iange of uecision makeis anu complexity of
the suppoiting infoimation, theie will be no one-size-fits-all climate
change iisk management system. A notional fiamewoik foi climate change
iisk management in Figuie A-2 is intiouuceu to offei some context fiom a
0S goveinment peispective foi the following evaluation of infoimation
systems anu ielateu piocesses. The fiamewoik is giounueu in vaiious
infoimation systems which offei input to assessment piocesses.

146. See: Boeiling et al. (2uu4); S. }anicot, S. Tizaska, anu I. Poccaiu, "Summei Sahel-
ENS0 teleconnection anu uecaual time scale SST vaiiations," Climote Bynomics 18
(2uu1): SuS-S2u; anu Raicich et al. "Teleconnections Between Inuian Nonsoon Anu
Sahelm Rainfall Anu The Neuiteiianean," lnternotionol }ournol of Climotoloqy 2S
(2uuS): 17S-186.
147. Bavis anu Caluieia, "Consumption-baseu accounting of C02," ProceeJinqs of tbe
Notionol AcoJemy of Sciences (2u1u).
148. R.}.T. Klein, S. Buq, F. Benton, T.E. Bowning, R.u. Richels, }.B. Robinson, anu F.L.
Toth, "Intei-ielationships between auaptation anu mitigation" in Climote Cbonqe 2007:
lmpocts, AJoptotion onJ vulnerobility. Contiibution of Woiking uioup II to the Fouith
Assessment Repoit of the Inteigoveinmental Panel on Climate Change, N.L. Paiiy, 0.F.
Canziani, }.P. Palutikof, P.}. van uei Linuen anu C.E. Banson, Eus. (Cambiiuge, 0K:
Cambiiuge 0niveisity Piess, 2uu7) pp. 74S-777.


Figure A-2: Notional framework for implementing climate cbange
risk management
The climate infoimation system woulu use a combination of sustaineu
obseivations anu mouels to monitoi, foiecast, anu ieanalyze uata associateu
with essential climate vaiiables. A iigoious valiuation function will be
essential to quantifying unceitainties anu managing eiiois. Climate uata
iecoius, incluuing tienus, will be piouuceu, aichiveu, anu uisseminateu.
Becision suppoit tools piesent climate uata in foimats amenable to
inteipietation by non-climate scientists anu iisk assessois. The founuation
foi, but to some uegiee sepaiate fiom, the opeiational climate infoimation
system is a ieseaich element that iemains flexible to uiscoveiy anu ensuies
that the latest unueistanuing of climate piocesses is infuseu into opeiational
infoimation. The ieseaich piogiam will contiibute to, anu benefit fiom, the
outputs of the climate infoimation system.
Synthesis assessment is a collaboiative multiuisciplinaiy piocess by
which subject mattei expeits in the natuial sciences, social sciences,
economics, anu policy tianslate the outputs fiom climate anu othei
infoimation systems into societal benefit metiics anu actionable
infoimation foi uecision makeis. Synthesis assessment incluues the

106 I APPENDIX A

geneiation anu simulation of scenaiios to help evaluate iisks spanning the
option-space of iesponse actions which aie mitigation, auaptation,
geoengineeiing oi non-action which is acceptance. In some othei
fiamewoiks, synthesis assessment is tieateu as a component of a climate
infoimation system but is piesenteu sepaiately heie to emphasize the
neeu to infuse non-climate infoimation into the assessment piocess.
The uecision-making executive function integiates the knowleuge
pioviueu by the infoimation systems anu assessment piocess anu takes
action in the foim of policy, management, ueployment of technology, anu
othei iesouices. Iueally, this executive function woulu seive as the
oveiaiching uiiectoi anu integiatoi of the climate change iisk
management fiamewoik. In a well-constiucteu iisk management
fiamewoik, the infoimation systems anu assessment function woulu
ieceive iequiiements fiom the uecision-making executive, staiting with
well-poseu questions about the iange of possible iesponses flowing uown
to what infoimation is neeueu to suppoit iisk assessment.
Some potential contiibuting factois anu consequences aie uesciibeu
in the following sections.
FINDINCS UN RISK MANACEMENT
Effective climate infoimation systems will neeu to iuentify changes in the
uistiibution of extieme events uiiven by changing climate, incluuing
upuateu likelihoous, impacts, anu unceitainties anu pioviue foi fiequent
ieassessment.
Risk management fiamewoiks that have tiauitionally ielieu on ielatively
static oi weak global connections will be challengeu in the futuie to
quantify climate uiiven changes in the moues of vaiiability anu stiength of
geophysical anu socioeconomic teleconnections spanning the Eaith.
Infoimation systems anu assessment piocesses neeu to enumeiate anu
quantify the potential inteiactions acioss anu between iesponse options
towaius unueistanuing the iisks anu benefits of taking a given action.
While theie aie ielateu effoits unueiway by vaiious oiganizations such as
N0AA anu the 0S ulobal Change Reseaich Piogiam (0SuCRP), no
systematic effoit to uefine iequiiements, aichitectuie, anu implementation
plan foi a climate iisk management fiamewoik anu suppoiting infoimation

systems anu assessment piocess has been completeu by the 0S goveinment
oi othei entities.
In the absence of a focuseu effoit to unueistanu key neeus, an infusion of
new funuing to uevelop a tiuly opeiational climate infoimation system,
anu a manuate to auuiess iegions outsiue the 0niteu States, the tentative
N0AA Climate Seivice anu ielateu piogiams may piove insufficient to
meet iisk management neeus.

Climate Information Systems
Attiibutes of an opeiational climate infoimation system incluue, but
aie not limiteu, to:
Reliable, sustaineu climate uata piouuction ovei uecaues,
incluuing obseivations, state-of-the-ait Eaith system mouels, anu
auvanceu uata assimilation piocesses
Ninimal gaps in uata collection anu minimal seivice inteiiuptions
Pioviue a cleaiinghouse of uata iecoius associateu with essential
climate vaiiables
Pioviue uata iecoius with global coveiage anu policy-ielevant
spatial-tempoial iesolution at all goveinance scales, fiom nations
to inuiviuual lanuowneis
Latency of climate uata iecoiu piouuction consistent with uecision
makei time lines
Becision suppoit tools to enable synthesis assessment anu
tianslation of climate uata iecoius into societal benefit metiics
Relentless attention to unceitainty quantification, calibiation, anu
valiuation of uata
Tianspaiency anu iepiouucibility of obseivational uata, mouels,
anu uecision suppoit tools anu analysis
Expeit scientific inteipietation anu suppoit foi assessois anu enu
useis
Sustaineu suppoit foi ongoing climate ieseaich
Flexibility to iesponu to lessons leaineu fiom ieseaich, incluuing
cooiuination with non-opeiational, ieseaich-uiiven obseivations

108 I APPENDIX A

Appioaches foi implementing a national Climate Infoimation System oi
climate seivice in the 0niteu States has been a topic of uiscussion within the
scientific community foi some yeais.
149
The 0SuCRP, Woilu Neteoiological
0iganization (WN0), anu uioup on Eaith 0bseivations aie piincipal
leaueis in iuentifying the neeus anu implementation options foi climate
seivices anu ielateu obseivational systems.
150
N0AA has aggiessively
woikeu to establish a National Climate Seivice foi the 0niteu States.
151,152
To
uate, the N0AA Climate Seivice effoit has laigely focuseu on ieoiganizing
the agency to align existing N0AA obseivational systems, uata centeis, line
offices, laboiatoiies, six Regional Climate Centeis, anu nine Regional
Integiateu Science anu Assessment Centeis unuei a single entity.
153
The 0S
Bepaitment of Inteiioi has inuepenuently establisheu eight Climate Science
Centeis
154
that have some oveilap with N0AA's iegional centeis. The N0AA
Climate Seivice concept builus on the iesouices of the opeiational National
Weathei Seivice anu also seeks to incoipoiate infoimation fiom the bioauei
community (e.g., 0SuCRP agencies such as NASA, Bepaitment of
Inteiioi0SuS, Bepaitment of Eneigy, National Science Founuation, anu the
0niteu States Bepaitment of Agiicultuie.
Since the limitations in cuiient climate obseivations anu mouels weie
uesciibeu in Chaptei 1, the iemainuei of this section focuses on the othei
key elements of a climate infoimation system anu ielateu piocesses.

149. Niles et al., "An appioach to uesigning a national climate seivice," ProceeJinqs of
tbe Notionol AcoJemy of Sciences (2uu6).
1Su. http:www.globalchange.gov; http:www.wmo.intpagesthemesclimate;
http:www.eaithobseivations.oig
1S1. Noiello, "Agency Pioposes Climate Seivice to Spui Auaptation," New York Times,
Feb 9, 2u1u, http:www.nytimes.comcwiie2u1uu2u9u9climatewiie-agency-
will-cieate-national-climate-seivice-6S6uS.html
1S2. Auveitiseu piouucts fiom the N0AA Climate Seivice incluue (foi the 0S):
Inunuation maps foi coastal communities that ieflect the best available infoimation on
sea level iise anu changing patteins of coastal stoims; heat piojections to help
manageis plan futuie eneigy anu health seivices neeus; climate anu piecipitation
mouels to help faimeis know the impact of a changing climate on theii ciops; ielevant
histoiical climate uata anu uata fiom state-of-the-ait climate mouels to infoim
investment anu planning foi businesses anu local goveinments; ioutine vulneiability
anu iisk assessments foi climate-sensitive iegions anu sectois.
1SS. http:www.noaa.govclimate.html
1S4. http:www.uoi.govwhatweuoclimatestiategyCSC-Nap.cfm

VullJutlon unJ uncertulnty quuntlflcutlon
Assessment effoits such as the IPCC piocess, as intiouuceu in Chaptei
1 of this iepoit, pioviue a ciitical scientific iesouice foi climate change
unueistanuing anu assessment as well as foi potentially infoiming
economic anu political uecision-making. A cential element of these
Assessment Repoits is the climate mouel piojections embeuueu in the
Woiking uioup I iepoit(s) anu inuiiectly in the impactsauaptation anu
mitigation Woiking uioup II anu III iepoits. These quantitative
piojections aie baseu on uynamical, multi-component, coupleu global
climate mouels (uCNs), now often iefeiieu to as Eaith system mouels as
they become moie compiehensive (e.g., incluuing the caibon cycle). ulobal
obseivations have long been essential foi pioviuing iesouices foi mouel
uevelopment anu valiuation (e.g., Tiopical Rainfall Neasuiing Nission
(TRNN) piecipitation, Eaith Rauiation Buuget ExpeiimentClouus anu the
Eaith's Rauiant Eneigy Systems iauiation buuget, Inteinational Satellite
Clouu Climatology Pioject clouu covei, anu SSNI watei vapoi). In the
context of IPCC, such obseivations aie becoming essential as a means foi
quantifying the unceitainties associateu with these climate change
piojections. In fact, the iathei new anu infoimal ieseaich anu
uevelopment activities associateu with mouel metiics foi uCNs is moving
towaiu moie foimal uevelopment anu application of metiics anu skill
scoies which can be, anu aie being, exploieu foi use foi quantitative
weighting of an ensemble of mouel piojections.
Figuies A-S anu A-4 show iesults fiom two iecent examinations of
uCN fiuelity baseu on Coupleu Nouel Inteicompaiison Pioject (CNIP)
uCN climate simulation aichives. These stuuies aie two of the fiist
155
that
attempteu to systematically anu quantitatively scoie uCN fiuelity acioss
the CNIP aichive(s) anu acioss a numbei of quantitiespiocesses. These
attempts, anu theii fuithei iefinements, aie ciucial foi quantitative
weighting of futuie climate piojections (e.g., piojections fiom pooiei
peifoiming mouels foi the obseiveu climate woulu be given less weight).
Figuie A-S shows an example of a poitiait uiagiam fiom ulecklei et al.
156

1SS. }. N. Nuiphy, B. N. B. Sexton, B. N. Bainett, u. S. }ones, N. }. Webb, anu N. Collins,
"Quantification of mouelling unceitainties in a laige ensemble of climate change
simulations," 4Su, no. 7uu1 (2uu4): 768-772.
1S6. P. ulecklei, R. Feiiaio, anu B. E. Walisei, Bettei use of satellite uata in evaluating
climate mouels contiibuting to CNIP anu assesseu by IPCC, }oint B0E-NASA woikshop,
Lawience Liveimoie National Laboiatoiy, 0ctobei 12-1S, 2u1u, E0S, In Piess.

110 I APPENDIX A

Figure A-3. Portrait diagram display of relative error metrics for 20tb
century CMIP3 annual cycle, climatology {1980-1999] for zonal mean
{witb bias removed]
157

The poitiait uiagiam illustiates uCN fiuelity measuies foi
iepiesenting the iecent climate baseu on obseivations anu the CNIPS
mouel aichive foi the 2uth centuiy uCN simulations, anu on the utilization
of a given metiic, in this case, a ielative ioot mean squaie uiffeience in the
annual cycle of the zonal mean of a numbei of quantities. Note blue colois
inuicate the mouel peifoims bettei than the typical mouel in the entiie
gioup, anu the two left columns inuicate that an ensemble-mean of the
mouels peifoims bettei than any given single mouel.

1S7. A value of -u.2 means that the mouel has an eiioi 2u% smallei than the typical
mouel eiioi foi that quantity. Each giiu squaie is split by a uiagonal in oiuei to show
the ielative eiioi with iespect to both the piimaiy (uppei left tiiangle) anu the
alteinate (lowei iight tiiangle) iefeience uata sets. vaiiables incluueu: hfls anu hfss -
latent anu sensible heat flux; ixxx - vaiious T0A anu suiface quantities of long wave
anu shoitwave iauiation incluuing clouu iauiative foicing; ts, clt - suiface tempeiatuie,
total clouu covei; pi, piw anu psl aie piecipitation, piecipitable watei anu sea level
piessuie; iemaining vaiiables aie suiface stiess anu winus anu winus, humiuity,
tempeiatuie anu heights at a numbei of piessuie levels.


Foi both of these cases, the obseivations aie baseu on a numbei of
ieanalysis piouucts anu a few satellite quantities. The lattei incluues the
satellite uata baseu on ulobal Piecipitation Climatology Pioject
(uPCP)Climate Pieuiction Centei Neigeu Analysis of Piecipitation foi
iainfall, Inteinational Satellite Clouu Climatology Pioject foi total clouu
covei, NASA Watei vapoi Pioject foi piecipitable watei, anu Eaith Rauiation
Buuget ExpeiimentClouus anu the Eaith's Rauiant Eneigy Systems foi
shoitwave anu long wave iauiation piouucts. Note howevei, the wealth of
global satellite uata piouucts that aie going unutilizeu in such evaluations,
incluuing most of the Eaith 0bseivation System anu A-Tiain platfoims anu
instiuments (e.g., Teiia, Aqua, Auia), as well complementaiy Eaith Science
platfoims such as uRACE, T0PEX}AS0N-10cean Suiface Topogiaphy
Nission, anu the suite of ocean vectoi winu piouucts.
Figuie A-4 shows iesults fiom Reichlei anu Kim
158
who utilizeu
obseivation-baseu metiics to examine anu chaiacteiize the uegiee that
mouels as a whole have impioveu in skill ovei time. They applieu a iathei
simple metiic baseu on the annual mean climatology anu ovei a numbei of
vaiiables to the suite of mouel simulations that maue up the (~1991)
CNIP1, (~ 1998) CNIP2, anu (~2uuS) CNIPS mouel aichives. In this case,
theie is a cleai illustiation that application of a consistent set of metiics to
a multigeneiational set of mouels inuicates incieaseu mouel fiuelity ovei
the last two uecaues. As with the ulecklei et al. stuuy, the uiiect
infoimation fiom satellite obseivations is extiemely limiteu given the
bieauth of available obseivations anu only involves, in this case,
piecipitation, clouu covei, sea ice, sea suiface tempeiatuie, anu the
inuiiect inputs to mouel-influenceu ieanalysis quantities.

1S8. T. Reichlei anu }. Kim, "Bow well uo coupleu mouels simulate touay's climate."
Bulletin of tbe Americon Heteoroloqicol Society 89, no. S (2uu8): SuS.

112 I APPENDIX A

Figure A-4. Performance index I2 for individual models {circles] and
model generations {rows]
159

The utility of obseivations, paiticulaily satellite obseivations, cannot
be oveistateu foi theii use in mouel uevelopment anu evaluation. Figuie
A-S shows iesults of an analysis of 2uth centuiy CNIPS mouel output
auapteu fiom Walisei et al.
160
that illustiates intei-mouel agieement in
long-teim annual anu global mean values of the foui quantities:

1S9. Best peifoiming mouels have low I2 values anu aie locateu towaiu the left. Ciicle
sizes inuicate the length of the 9S% confiuence inteivals. Letteis anu numbeis iuentify
inuiviuual mouels (not shown); flux-coiiecteu mouels aie labeleu in ieu. uiey ciicles
show the aveiage I2 of all mouels within one mouel gioup. Black ciicles inuicate the I2 of
the multi-mouel mean taken ovei one mouel gioup. The gieen ciicle (REA) coiiesponus
to the I2 of the National Centeis foi Enviionmental PieuictionNational Centei foi
Atmospheiic Reseaich ieanalyses. (iight) Climate vaiiables anu valiuation uata.
16u. See: B. Walisei, K. W. Seo, S. Schubeit, anu E. Njoku, "ulobal watei cycle agieement
in the climate mouels assesseu in the IPCC AR4," 6eopbysicol Reseorcb letters S4, no. 16
(2uu7); anu B. Walisei et al., "Clouu ice: A climate mouel challenge with signs anu
expectations of piogiess," }ournol of 6eopbysicol Reseorcb-Atmospberes 114 (2uu9).


piecipitation, piecipitable watei, clouu fiaction, anu integiateu clouu ice
watei path. Notable is that the intei-mouel agieement between
piecipitation, piecipitable watei, anu clouu fiaction is ielatively goou.
These quantities have ielatively long-liveu (since late 198us oi befoie)
global satellite iecoius foi which mouel uevelopment anu evaluation
have been able to constantly utilize (e.g., TRNN, uPCP, the Climate
Pieuiction Centei's Neigeu Analysis of Piecipitation foi iainfall; SSNI,
NASA Watei vapoi Pioject foi piecipitable watei; Inteinational Satellite
Clouu Climatology Pioject foi clouu fiaction). In contiast, the intei-
mouel agieement foi the ice watei path is quite pooi. Even when the
gieatest outlieis aie iemoveu, theie is still a factoi of six between the
iemaining laigest anu smallest moueleu values. Foitunately, in the case
of ice watei path, moie iobust ietiievals have become available with the
auvent of ClouuSat, anu these laige mouel unceitainties aie expecteu to
gieatly impiove.
161

uiven the iole that uCNs anu theii simulations anu piojections play in
the IPCC piocess, not only to the science of climate change but also
possibly to uecision suppoit associateu with some of the most socially-
impoitant impacts of global climate change, it is impeiative to consiuei the
above finuing(s) moie eainestly, anu to uefine anu take steps to uevelop
anu exploie the use of moie foimal metiics anu valiuation pioceuuies in
oiuei to gauge the fiuelity of the uCNs that contiibute to synthesis
assessments, such as IPCC.

161. K.E. Tienbeith, A. u. Bai, R. N. Rasmussen, anu B. B. Paisons, "The changing
chaiactei of piecipitation," Bulletin of tbe Americon Heteoroloqicol Society 84, no. 9
(2uuS): 12uS.

114 I APPENDIX A

Figure A-5. Clobally-averaged, annual mean values of bydrological
quantities from tbe 1970-1994 period of tbe 20
tb
century
atmospbere-ocean coupled simulations assessed in tbe IPCC AR4
Foi example, the numeiical weathei pieuiction community ioutinely
uses metiics to pioviue a unifoim anu quantitative methouology to
evaluate mouels anu theii piojections anu tiack theii impiovement ovei
time, with iesults openly publisheu by the WN0. To uate theie is no
analogue in the climate moueling community. To auuiess this, the Woiking
uioup on Numeiical Expeiimentation anu the Woiking uioup on Coupleu
Noueling with sponsoiship fiom WN0's Woilu Climate Reseaich Piogiam
have jointly foimeu a Climate Netiics Panel. From 20102011, the task force
was active in developing a proposal to stait identifying and applying a set of
metrics to climate model results with a particular near-term objective, CMIP5.
The main questions that aie motivating the use of ioutine climate metiics:
Aie climate mouels impioving. If they aie impioving, then how iapiu is
the impiovement. Which aie moie iealistic.
Auuitionally, it is hopeu that a uiveisity of ioutine metiics will pioviue
useful summaiies of oveiall mouel peifoimance. Such metiics will in tuin

be useful to exploie as a means to objectively weight the ensembles of
climate piojections pioviueu as pait of CNIPS (e.g., foi one gieenhouse gas
scenaiio, appioximately twenty uCNs anu possibly five ensemble
membeis ~ one hunuieu). Note that similai consiueiations anu metiics
neeu to be uevelopeu foi iegional climate mouels that aie ioutinely useu
foi uynamical uownscaling to scales moie ielevant to local anu iegional
uecision suppoit.
Bespite a giowing bouy of mouels, two bioau issues iemain in theii
effective application to climate iisk assessment: 1) mouel valiuation anu
scoiing aie neeueu so that when assessois evaluate the outputs of multiple
mouels offeiing piojections foi a given iegion, they have some objective way
of weeuing out anuoi weighting piojections; anu, 2) the lack of capacity of
uecision makeis to effectively inteipiet anu use the infoimation.
The application of global satellite piouucts to mouel uevelopment anu
evaluation leaus to mouels that have moie fiuelity at iepiesenting the
obseiveu climate iecoiu.
The uevelopment anu application of obseivation-baseu metiics
pioviue a foimal anu unifoim methouology to evaluate mouels, tiack theii
impiovement ovei time, anu potentially pioviue objective, skill-uepenuent
weighting of theii pieuictions anu piojections. This statement is alieauy
cleaily uemonstiateu by the numeiical weathei pieuiction community.
A significant poition of NASA anu othei agency satellite uata is being
unueiutilizeu foi mouel uevelopment anu evaluation anu, paiticulaily, foi
use as obseivation-baseu climate mouel metiics.
Nany piocesses within climate mouels coulu be bettei unueistoou anu
moueleu if new obseivational iesouices weie maue available.
Climate Data Record Production
In oiuei to piouuce opeiational climate uata iecoius, significant effoit
is iequiieu to accumulate uata associateu with ECvs, iigoiously quantify
unceitainties, apply calibiation coiiections, anu tiansfoim time-seiies of
uata into tienus. Auuitionally, calibiateu uata can be iectifieu anu
piesenteu as geolocateu maps inuicating the spatial anu tempoial
uistiibutions anu evolutions of selecteu paiameteis.

116 I APPENDIX A

To suppoit tianspaiency anu iepiouucibility, these obseivational uata
sets must be accompanieu by extensive metauata coveiing uetails on the
sensing instiumentation, algoiithms employeu to ietiieve geophysical
paiameteis fiom the iaw uata, calibiation cuives, etc. Naintaining an
aichive anu cleaiinghouse foi these uata incluuing expeit inteipietation
anu suppoit foi useis is a majoi component of any climate infoimation
system. N0AA's existing National Climatic Bata Centei, National 0ceanic
Bata Centei, anu National ueophysical Bata Centei aie seveial such assets
anu foim the coie of the N0AA Climate Seivice.
NASA's Eaith 0bseiving System Bata anu Infoimation System
manages anu uistiibutes uata piouucts thiough the Bistiibuteu Active
Aichive Centeis
162
spanning twenty-eight categoiies of ECvs coveiing the
atmospheie, oceans, anu lanu suiface.
0SuS's Eaith 0bseivations anu Science Centei
163
pioviues access to
climate-ielevant infoimation incluuing caibon cycle, uiought, vegetation
monitoiing, lanu coveilanu use, fiie, wilulife impacts, anu topogiaphy.
In teims of mouel outputs, in auuition to the above outlets, vaiious
oiganizations anu piogiams such as the IPCC
164
anu the Piogiam foi
Climate Nouel Biagnosis anu Inteicompaiison
165
offei the iesults of
inuiviuual anu ensemble mouel simulations anu piojections.
In teims of the above uata iesouices, uata measuiement, anu
aichiving stiategies, few effoits have systematically optimizeu obseivation
foimats, aichives, anu uissemination stiategies foi the specific use of
climate mouel evaluation anu impiovement.
eclxlon xupport toolx
The availability of iobust climate uata iecoius, tienus, anu spatially
iesolveu uistiibutions of essential climate vaiiables alone is not sufficient
to suppoit accuiate assessment of climate change iisks anu uecision-
making. The concept of uecision suppoit tools iecognizes the neeu foi

162. NASA's Eaith 0bseiving System Bata anu Infoimation System
(http:nasauaacs.eos.nasa.gov)
16S. 0SuS's Eaith Resouices 0bseivation anu Science Centei (http:eios.usgs.gov)
164. IPCC's Bata Bistiibution Centei (http:www.ipcc-uata.oig)
16S. Piogiam foi Climate Nouel Biagnosis anu Inteicompaiison (http:www-
pcmui.llnl.gov)

applications that help biiuge the gap between climate science anu societal
benefit aieas.
Climate uecision suppoit tools aie funueu anu piouuceu by
goveinment agencies (both ieseaich anu opeiational entities), think-
tanks, acauemia, aiu oiganizations, anu piivate inuustiy.
In the fiamewoik of this iepoit, uecision suppoit tools aie tieateu as
pait of climate infoimation systems which aie aiguably the best home foi
such capabilities. The following examples offei a noncompiehensive
illustiation of the scope anu functions of seveial existing climate-ielevant
uecision suppoit tools.
The National Integiateu Biought Infoimation System
is manageu by
N0AA with suppoit fiom othei agencies anu uesigneu foi the 0niteu
States only to:
Pioviue eaily waining about emeiging anu anticipateu uioughts
Assimilate anu quality contiol uata about uioughts anu mouels
Pioviue infoimation about iisk anu impact of uioughts to uiffeient
agencies anu stakeholueis
Pioviue infoimation about past uioughts foi compaiison anu to
unueistanu cuiient conuitions
Explain how to plan foi, anu manage, the impacts of uioughts
Pioviue a foium foi uiffeient stakeholueis to uiscuss uiought-
ielateu issues
The Famine Eaily Waining System Netwoik (FEWS NET) is a 0SAIB-
funueu activity implementeu by a paitneiship between 0SuS, NASA,
N0AA, 0S Bepaitment of Agiicultuie, anu Chemonics Inteinational, Inc.
FEWS NET collaboiates with inteinational, iegional, anu national paitneis
to pioviue timely anu iigoious eaily waining anu vulneiability
infoimation on emeiging anu evolving foou secuiity issues. FEWS NET has
iegional centeis in Cential Asia; the Caiibbean; Cential Ameiica; Eastein,
Southein, anu Westein Aiica; anu the Niuule East.
167

166. National Integiateu Biought Infoimation System (http:www.uiought.gov)
167. Famine Eaily Waining System Netwoik (http:www.fews.net)

118 I APPENDIX A

The Foieign Agiicultuial Seivice's Ciop Exploiei
168
featuies neai-ieal-
time global ciop conuition infoimation baseu on the satellite imageiy anu
weathei uata piocesseu by the Piouuction Estimates anu Ciop Assessment
Bivision. The piimaiy mission of this uivision is to piouuce the most
objective anu accuiate assessment of the global agiicultuial piouuction
outlook anu the conuitions affecting foou secuiity in the woilu. Regional
analysts use a ueogiaphic Infoimation System to collect maiket
intelligence anu foiecast ieliable global piouuction numbeis foi giains, oil
seeus, anu cotton. Thematic maps of majoi ciop giowing iegions aie
upuateu eveiy ten uays to uepict the latest statistics peitaining to
vegetative vigoi, piecipitation, tempeiatuie, anu soil moistuie. Time-
seiies chaits uepict cuiient anu histoiical giowing season uata foi specific
agio-meteoiological zones. Regional ciop calenuais anu ciop aiea maps
aie also available foi selecteu iegions.
The Regional visualization anu Nonitoiing System initiative, a 0SAIB-
funueu activity implementeu by NASA in collaboiation with iegional paitneis
in Cential Ameiica, Afiica, anu Cential Asia, integiates satellite obseivations,
giounu-baseu uata, anu foiecast mouels to monitoi anu foiecast
enviionmental changes anu to impiove iesponse to natuial uisasteis.
169
0ne featuie common in many climate uecision suppoit tools is
visualization, paiticulaily the application of ueogiaphic Infoimation System
techniques. The concept of iisk mapping is fiequently employeu in focusing
vulneiability assets in iegions such as Afiica.
170
In fact, most of the biiefings
given to this task foice ovei the couise of the stuuy piesenteu a laige
numbei of maps constiucteu with ueogiaphic Infoimation System tools
illustiating climate impacts anu vulneiabilities of vaiious iegions. While the
motivation foi spatially iesolveu visualization is unueistanuable, some
caution in theii inteipietation is waiianteu. Nost ueogiaphic Infoimation
System tools employ one oi moie obseivational uata sets anuoi mouel
outputs to visualization. This infoimation is not necessaiily applieu
consistently (e.g., as layeis oi as meigeu uata sets) anu significant eiiois can
exist, both in teims of iegisteiing uata to a given giiu anu in teims of
uiffeiences between unueilying uata sets. Nethous foi iepiesenting anu

168. 0S Bepaitment of Agiicultuie Foieign Agiicultuie Seivice's Ciop Exploiei
(http:www.pecau.fas.usua.govciopexploiei)
169. Regional visualization anu Nonitoiing System (http:www.seivii.neten)
17u. Busby et al. (2u1u).

inteipieting unceitainty oi eiiois in ueogiaphic Infoimation System
piouucts aie by no means consistent oi wiuespieau. Bence, theie exists a
iisk of mixing giay uata, uata lacking veiifiable peuigiee oi quantifieu
unceitainties, with high ieliability infoimation.
The potential foi policy getting aheau of the science is a topic of some
concein within the scientific community. At the same time, it is iecognizeu
that uecision makeis cannot wait foi zeio unceitainty.
FINDINCS UN CLIMATE RECURD DATA PRUDUCTIUN
Bespite the wealth of infoimation available fiom multiple oiganizations
theie cuiiently is no single cleaiing-house foi climate uata iecoius anu
associateu mouel outputs, noi iuentification oi aibitiation of uisciepancies
between them.
As with climate infoimation systems wiit laige, theie is no stanuaiu set of
uecision suppoit tools oi even stanuaius foi how they aie uesigneu,
implementeu, anu useu, noi aie theie conventions on who piouuces them.
Theie is a potential foi well-piesenteu but inaccuiate giay uata associateu
with ueogiaphic Infoimation System piouucts to ieceive highei weighting
by iisk assessois than othei, less intuitive, but moie accuiate infoimation.
Infoimation piouucts useu in climate assessment piocesses aie often not
accompanieu by cleaily maikeu quantitative unceitainty estimates to
ensuie appiopiiate weighting by uecision makeis.

Uverarcbing Barriers for Climate
Information Systems
In auuition to issues with specific elements of climate infoimation
systems, theie aie seveial oveiaiching baiiieis to ueploying a iobust,
opeiational capability piincipally associateu with:
Funuing piioiities place an inoiuinate weight on contiol ovei
knowleuge
0S climate seivices focuseu on the 0niteu States, not inteinational
neeus
Inactive ieseaich to opeiations pathway foi climate infoimation
Limiteu capacity in ueveloping countiies foi infoimation systems

120 I APPENDIX A

Funuing foi climate infoimation systems anu synthesis assessment
(knowleuge), ieceives a small fiaction of funuing available foi iesponse
actions (contiol). Foi example, only u.4 peicent of the Afiican Bevelopment
Bank's cuiient auaptation buuget ($4S million out of $S.9 billion) is
allocateu to knowleuge anu competency builuing.
171
In the 0niteu States, the
funuing spieau acioss NASA, N0AA, 0SuS, Bepaitment of Eneigy, National
Science Founuation, Bepaitment of Agiicultuie, anu othei agencies foi
2uu7-2uu9 allocateu to ieseaich associateu with auaption anu mitigation
was appioximately 2S peicent, oi $Suu million pei yeai, of the ~$1.2 billion
total 0SuCRP buuget.
172
Bowevei, this again iepiesents the climate
infoimation (knowleuge) component of climate change iisk management,
not the iesponse (contiol) aspect. Risk manageis have noteu the neeu to
cieate "well-uesigneu anu auequately iesouiceu feeuback loops to
effectively incoipoiate new uata anu auvancements in scientific
unueistanuing anu suppoit continual iefinement anu valiuation of analyses,
impact piojections, anu effective iesponse mechanisms."
173

This finuing anu the neeu to inciease effoits to offei a bioauei global
focus ielevant to the neeus of the uefense, uiplomacy, anu uevelopment
agencies was also noteu in the iecent piogiess iepoit of the 0S
Inteiagency Climate Change Auaptation Task Foice.
174

A ieseaich to opeiations piocess has been employeu foi uecaues to
uevelop anu tiansfei scientific infoimation systems fiom an exploiatoiy
science moue into opeiational capabilities. Reseaich agencies such as NASA,
the national laboiatoiies, anu theii paitneis in acauemia seive as
pathfinueis foi ieseaich anu uevelopment of instiumentation, uata
piouucts, anu mouels that aie giauually (ovei a uecaue oi moie foi a given
ECv) tiansfeiieu into an opeiational enviionment by agencies such as
N0AA oi 0SuS uiiven by stiategic planning. It is not cleai if the 0S
goveinment is on such a path foi a climate infoimation system. The piactical

171. Anthony Nyong, Climote cbonqe & Africos security: tbe role of tbe Africon
Bevelopment Bonk, piesentation to the Befense Science Boaiu Task Foice on Climate
Change, Novembei 8, 2u1u.
172. 0niteu States ulobal Change Reseaich Piogiam, 0ur cbonqinq plonet, Table 1.
FY2uu7-2uu9 Climate change Science Piogiam Buuget by uoal anu Focus Aiea (2u1u).
17S. Nabey et al. (2u11).
174. The White Bouse Council on Enviionmental Quality, Proqress Report of tbe
lnteroqency Climote Cbonqe AJoptotion Tosk Iorce: RecommenJeJ Actions in Support of
o Notionol Climote Cbonqe AJoptotion Stroteqy (Washington, B.C.: Executive 0ffice of
the Piesiuent, 2u1u).

planning winuow foi these agencies is ioughly ten yeais, anu the cuiient
hoiizon iegaiuing climate obseivations is ioughly 2u2u.
A faii concein often expiesseu in consiueiing opeiational climate
seivices is the neeu to iemain flexible to uiscoveiy. The key point heie is
iecognition of the neeu to such a piocess.
Cuiiently, effoits to auuiess this gap aie limiteu to piojects funueu by
0SAIB, such as NASA's Regional visualization anu Nonitoiing System.
These pilot effoits offei goou test paiticles foi the ueployment of climate
infoimation piouucts, technical infiastiuctuie, anu tiaining in ueveloping
countiies but aie still limiteu in the scope, funuing, anu bieauth of 0S
science anu technical capability employeu. The Inteiagency Climate
Change Auaptation Task Foice iecognizeu the same neeu anu maue the
following iecommenuation: "Bevelop a uoveinment-wiue stiategy to
suppoit multilateial anu bilateial auaptation activities anu integiate
auaptation into ielevant 0.S. foieign assistance piogiams."
17S

Synthexlx uxxexxment
The outputs of climate infoimation systems anu othei infoimation
systems must be integiateu anu tieateu to synthesis assessment in oiuei
to tianslate biogeophysical uata into metiics ielevant to watei, foou,
sheltei, eneigy, secuiity, health, anu othei societal impact aieas. This
iequiies the application of an inteiuisciplinaiy appioach involving the
physical sciences, social sciences, economics, anu policy. Beyonu stuuying
cuiient anu past climate uata anu othei uata sets, synthesis assessment
benefits fiom uefining impact anu iesponse scenaiios anu iunning
simulations to evaluate potential outcomes anu iisks.
The IPCC offeis peihaps the best known example of synthesis
assessment foi climate change. Foui IPCC assessment iepoits have been
ieleaseu to uate: 199u, 199S, 2uu1, anu 2uu7. The fifth assessment is
cuiiently unueiway anu scheuuleu foi publication in eaily 2u1S, with a
goal of ieleasing an auvanceu copy by late 2u14.
The piocess anu time line foi geneiating the IPCC synthesis
assessments aie illustiateu in Figuie A-6. 0nlike an opeiational climate

17S. The White Bouse Council on Enviionmental Quality (2u1u).

122 I APPENDIX A

change iisk management fiamewoik in which climate anu othei
infoimation systems piouuce sustaineu, opeiational inputs to a synthesis
assessment function, the IPCC piocess is stiictly limiteu to consiueiing
only infoimation available in the peei-ievieweu scientific liteiatuie at
given cut-off uates. This is intenueu to maximize the cieuibility of the
founuational infoimation applieu in the assessment. This iequiiement is
both necessaiy anu piesents a iisk foi uecision makeis. 0n the one hanu, a
uelibeiative piocess to ensuie that the climate infoimation piesenteu is
scientifically iobust is not amenable to iushing. The peei-ieview piocess is
impoitant. 0n the othei hanu, theie is significant latency anu peihaps
majoi gaps in knowleuge associateu with a piocess stiictly limiteu to peei-
ievieweu jouinal aiticles. Auuitionally, as illustiateu, the IPCC assessment
iepoit must be ievieweu anu appioveu by a laige numbei of goveinments
piioi to ielease. The iisk heie is that vital anu ielevant climate
infoimation can be uiscaiueu, leaving with the enu-iesult being a uiluteu
veision of the complete stoiy.

Figure A-. IPCC Fiftb Assessment process and timeline
The 0SuCRP is iequiieu unuei the ulobal Change Reseaich Act of 199u
to pioviue a National Climate Assessment iepoit eveiy foui yeais that
incluues an analysis of the effects of global change on natuial enviionment,
agiicultuie, eneigy piouuction anu use, lanu anu watei iesouices,
tianspoitation, human health anu welfaie, human social systems, anu

biological uiveisity.
176
It also analyzes cuiient tienus in global change, both
human-inuuceu anu natuial, anu piojects majoi tienus foi the subsequent
twenty-five to one hunuieu yeais. So fai, two such national assessments
have been piouuceu, one in 2uuu, the othei in 2uu9. The next assessment is
uue in 2u1S anu will uiffei fiom the pievious assessments by being "moie
focuseu on evaluating the Nation's piogiess in auaptation anu mitigation
builuing a long-teim, consistent piocess foi evaluation of climate-ielateu
iisks anu oppoitunities, incluuing a national set of inuicatois of change;
pioviuing infoimation that suppoits uecision-making piocesses within
iegions anu sectois of the 0niteu States; anu evaluating the cuiient state of
scientific knowleuge ielative to climate impacts anu tienus."
177
0nlike the
IPCC assessments, the 0SuCRP national assessment, othei than noting
global climate tienus, is limiteu in scope to the 0niteu States. While the
national assessment allows a ueepei focus on iegional anu local issues in
0niteu States than the IPCC assessment, to a laige extent, it uoes not auuiess
inteinational issues.
Recently, synthesis assessments focuseu on specific piioiity aieas have
been conuucteu by oiganizations in the 0niteu States. Examples incluue the
Enviionmental Inuications anu Wainings (EIW) Pioject implementeu by the
CIA Centei on Climate Change anu National Secuiity, conuucteu unuei the
auspices of the Neasuiements of Eaith Bata foi Enviionmental Analysis
piogiam. The EIW seeks to monitoi enviionmental stiesses influenceu by
climate, using measuiements anu moueling of secuiity inuicatois
uesciiptive of the coupleu human-enviionmental system. Initially, the focus
of the EIW pioject is on fieshwatei availability, ultimately offeiing global
coveiage anu sub-national iesolution with monthly upuates on foiwaiu
piojections. The EIW assessment incluues a synthesis of climatic stiesses
(specific anomalies such as tempeiatuie, piecipitation, soil moistuie, anu
iivei flow), enviionmental factois (biogeohyuiospheie), socioeconomic
anu political factois to iuentify anu iisk-iate watei iesouice hot spots.
Anothei example of a focuseu assessment incluues a iisk analysis by
the Bepaitment of Eneigy's Sanuia National Laboiatoiies that assembleu
IPCC climate mouel ensemble piojections foi tempeiatuie anu
piecipitation, useu a hyuiologic mouel to map those piojections to futuie

176. http:www.globalchange.govwhat-we-uoassessmentnca-oveiview
177. "0.S. National Climate Assessment 0bjectives, Pioposeu Topics, anu Next Steps,"
IeJerol Reqister 6u, no. 21u (Septembei 7, 2u1u).

124 I APPENDIX A

watei availability anu watei piouuction, then applieu a macioeconomic
mouel to estimate the potential economic consequences foi the 0niteu
States as a whole anu inuiviuual states foi the peiiou 2u1u-2uSu.
178

The neeu foi impioveu collection anu integiation of multiple
infoimation types (climate, economic, secuiity, uemogiaphics, health, anu
othei inuicatois) cannot be oveistateu. Figuie A-7 illustiates the iesults of a
synthesis analysis by Neiei et al. that combineu climatic uata (piecipitation)
anu othei infoimation (human ueaths anu livestock losses) attiibuteu to
incieasing conflict in the foim of cattle iaius in 0ganua uuiing the peiiou of
peak watei stiess befoie the stait of the wet season.
179

This neeu is suppoiteu by the following iecommenuation fiom the
National Reseaich Council iepoit, lnforminq Becisions in o Cbonqinq
Climote. The "feueial goveinment |shouluj 'expanu anu maintain national
obseivation systems to pioviue infoimation neeueu foi climate uecision
suppoit. These systems shoulu link existing uata on physical, ecological,
social, economic, anu health vaiiables to each othei anu uevelop new uata
anu key inuicatois as neeueu' foi estimating climate change vulneiabilities
anu infoiming iesponses intenueu to limit anu auapt to climate change."
180

Figure A-7. Conflict impact and precipitation levels for Ugandan
Karamo|an

178. ueoige Backus, Thomas Lowiy, Biake Waiien, Naik Ehlen, ueoffiey Klise, veine
Loose, Len Nalczynski, Rhonua Reineit, Kevin Stambei, vince Tiuwell, vanessa vaigas,
anu Aluo Zagonel, Assessinq tbe Neor-Term Risk of Climote 0ncertointy:
lnterJepenJencies omonq tbe 0S stotes, SANB2u1u-2uS2 (Albuqueique, NN: Sanuia
National Laboiatoiy, Nay 2u1u).
179. Neiei et al., Climote Cbonqe onJ Conflict (2uu7) pp. 716-7SS.
18u. Ameiica's Climate Choices: AJvoncinq tbe Science of Climote Cbonqe (2u1u).

A complete anu iobust climate change iisk management fiamewoik
iequiies a ieliable, sustaineu, anu timely synthesis assessment component.
The Inteiagency Climate Change Auaptation Task Foice
181
iecognizeu this
point anu offeis the following specific iecommenuations to:
Bevelop scenaiios within a iange of climate change outcomes at
spatial anu tempoial scales necessaiy to infoim impact assessment
anu auaptive action
Cieate usei-fiienuly methous foi assessing climate impacts,
vulneiability, anu iisk, incluuing mouels anu tools to assess the
enviionmental, social, anu economic outcomes of alteinative
auaptation actions
Pioviue guiuance on the use anu suitability of uownscaleu global
climate mouel outputs
Conuuct fiequent upuates of iegional chaiacteiizations anu
assessments of climate, incluuing climate-uiiven vaiiables
(e.g., stieam flow, floou, anu uiought)
Expanu ieseaich on ielevant social anu behavioial sciences to
impiove unueistanuing of human iesponses to change
Iuentify the social anu ecological tipping points anu thiesholus
(beyonu which change is suuuen anu potentially iiieveisible) to
help guiue uecisions iegaiuing inteivention anu planning
Bevelop methous anu piocesses foi iuentifying, uefining, anu
managing foi extiemes, incluuing low-piobability, high-impact events
Analyze climate change impacts in the context of multiple
stiessois anu inteiacting systems (e.g., inteiactions of climate anu
aii quality on human health in metiopolitan aieas)
It iemains to be seen to what extent these iecommenuations will be
implementeu such that a synthesis capability, meeting the neeus of the
Bepaitment of Befense, will be available in the futuie.
eclxlon-muklng unJ lntegrutlon
Effective climate change iisk management uepenus both on the quality
of the available knowleuge (climate infoimation systems anu synthesis
assessment piocess) anu the piocess useu to manage contiol anu

181. The White Bouse Council on Enviionmental Quality (2u1u).

126 I APPENDIX A

iesponses (uecision-making). Climate change iisk management intiouuces
challenges that builu on those encounteieu in moie tiauitional uecision-
making. These challenges incluue funuamental unceitainties in climate
infoimation, the neeu to consiuei many low-likelihoou, high impact iisks,
anu the complexity anu iisk of competing action associateu with
asynchionous iesponses fiom a laige numbei of management entities
both in the 0niteu States anu inteinationally.
uiven the significant gaps in scientific unueistanuing of climate
change, it is likely that policy-ielevant climate infoimation systems may
take a uecaue oi moie to ueploy. In the meantime, iisk manageis aie
confionteu with the neeu to move foiwaiu in the face of unceitainty.
As noteu in a 2u1u iepoit by Sanuia National Laboiatoiies: "An
impiecise pieuiction can be useful foi compaiing options to auuiess a
significant pioblem if we assume that such a pieuiction auequately uefines
the futuie ielative to the choices to be maue anu, moie impoitantly,
iepiesents a mutually agieeu upon basis fiom which stakeholueis can
uebate alteinatives on common giounu."
182

The tieatment of low piobability, veiy high impact iisks whose
piobability uensity functions exhibit long tails is an aiea of concein foi iisk
manageis. Climate change piesents a potentially laige phase space of
scenaiios with the potential foi fai gieatei anu moie wiuespieau impacts
with aiguably compaiable likelihoous but with ielatively pooily unueistoou
iesponse options (Appenuix B). This piesents a challenge foi iisk
management piocesses that piobably waiiant fuithei stuuy to enumeiate
specific gaps anu mitigations.
The othei baiiiei to effective uecision-making in this aiena is the size of
the potential iesponse space anu the numbei of oiganizations involveu in
evaluating iisk anu taking action. In the 0niteu States alone, theie aie
appioximately ten agencies associateu piimaiily with the geneiation of
knowleugeinfoimation anu at least fifteen associateu with contiolaction,
plus a few that oveilap. The piesent lack of any oveiaiching fiamewoik foi
cooiuination anu integiation iepiesents a iisk of asynchionous actions.
Some potential baiiieis incluue:

182. ueoige Backus et al. (2u1u).

Challenges foi inteiagency coopeiation anu cooiuination
Inteiagency cooiuinating oiganizations such as the Presidents
Office of Science and Technology Policy, 0SuCRP, 0SuE0, anu the
Inteiagency Auaptation Task Foice not acting as ueliveiing
oiganizations, many ielying on contiibuteu effoits by many
agencies which is an inefficient piocess
Intia-agency issues such as conflicting visions within laige
uepaitments anu agencies, competition foi funuing, anu a
waiiness of unfunueu oi unueifunueu manuates
Lack of uiiect cabinet level iepiesentation fiom agencies
iesponsible foi ueliveiing climate infoimation systems (e.g., NASA,
N0AA, 0SuS)
Lack of an empoweieu integiateu uecision-making bouy; no
climate equivalent of the National Secuiity Council
The inteiagency auaptation woiking gioup hau a similai finuing:
Nany piogiams acioss the Feueial uoveinment piouuce science that
infoims anu suppoits climate change auaptation uecision-making.
Nany of these effoits occui thiough the agencies of the 0SuCRP,
while otheis have emeigeu in iesouice management oi community
uevelopment piogiams thiough agencies that have not histoiically
focuseu on climate change. Cuiiently, most of these activities aie
occuiiing inuepenuently of one anothei, leauing to gaps anu
ieuunuancies. These effoits woulu benefit fiom enhanceu
cooiuination on science at the Feueial level, thiough agencies
woiking togethei moie closely to leveiage existing capabilities.
Cooiuination woulu help feueially sponsoieu science iuentify,
unueistanu, anu meet the neeus of uecision makeis implementing
auaptation stiategies on the giounu. The new Auaptation Science anu
Reseaich Element within the 0SuCRP shoulu uevelop a 'ioaumap'
that iuentifies existing auaptation science anu seivice capabilities anu
gaps acioss Feueially-sponsoieu piogiams.
183

FINDINCS UN UVERARCHINC BARRIERS FUR CLIMATE INFURMATIUN SYSTEMS
Cuiiently, climate obseivations, iegional-scale mouels, uecision-suppoit
tools, anu synthesis assessments by the 0SuCRP anu paiticulaily by the
N0AA anu 0SuS contiibutions aie piimaiily focuseu on the 0niteu States
iathei than an inteinational peispective.


128 I APPENDIX A

Theie iemain many unceitainties in basic climate piocess unueistanuing
that piesent baiiieis to specifying an optimal, sustaineu infoimation
system with confiuence, suggesting that an iteiative oi spiial uevelopment
appioach will be iequiieu.
Theie is limiteu scientific anu technical capacity in the ueveloping woilu to
uevelop anu maintain climate infoimation systems.
The IPCC assessment piocess, while iigoious anu compiehensive, suffeis
fiom latency anu potentially, fiom the uiluting influence of multinational
politics on the ultimate finuings.
Absent a focuseu effoit to leveiage anu augment the IPCC anu 0SuCRP
assessment effoits, theie exists a significant iisk the synthesis assessment
neeus will not be met.
Theie is not a systematic effoit to quantify anu iecognize the
unceitainties embouieu in climate anu othei infoimation iesouices anu
the iange of potential iesponse options; this effoit must be uone
consistently acioss a wiue-iange of uecision-making oiganizations in
such a way as to pioviue a level playing fielu foi iisk assessment anu to
ensuie iesponses aie haimonizeu.

vaiious oiganizations in the 0niteu States aie woiking to auuiess the
geneial neeu foi impioveu infoimation to suppoit climate change iisk
management. The 0SuCRP is cuiiently unueigoing a iestiuctuiing activity
intenueu to impiove its capability to suppoit the climate change iesponse
effoits.
184
The Climate Change Auaptation Inteiagency Task Foice has
bioau paiticipation of feueial agencies anu has iuentifieu numeious aieas
foi impiovement, incluuing some ielevant to the neeus of B0B anu othei
agencies conceineu with inteinational thieats.
185
N0AA anu othei
inuiviuual agencies continue effoits to impiove the ielevance of theii
infoimation to climate change iisk management anu uecision-making.

184. 0niteu States ulobal Change Reseaich Piogiam, 0ur Cbonqinq Plonet: Tbe 0S
6lobol Cbonqe Reseorcb Proqrom for Iiscol Yeor 2011.

Neveitheless, neithei the neeus of B0B foi climate infoimation
systems anu assessment piocesses, noi the gaps ielative to cuiient
capabilities anu planneu futuie capabilities have been iigoiously stuuieu
to uate. Likewise, many of the oveiaiching baiiieis iuentifieu heie, anu in
othei stuuies, aie unlikely to be iesolveu without moie attention.

130 I APPENDIX B

Appendix B Special Topics
This appenuix elaboiates on seveial wilu caiu topics, each of which
have the potential foi placing auuitional uemanus on climate infoimation
systems anu iisk assessment piocesses beyonu those uiscusseu eailiei.
Tipping Points
The teim ''tipping point'' commonly iefeis to a ciitical thiesholu at
which a tiny peituibation can qualitatively altei the state oi uevelopment
of a system; the teim ''tipping element'' has been useu to uesciibe laige-
scale components of the Eaith system that may pass a tipping point.
186

Figuie B-1 illustiates potential laige-scale tipping elements, ianging fiom
changes in ENS0 amplituue anu fiequency, to iapiu loss of Aictic sea ice oi
key ice sheets (uieenlanu anu Antaictica), to majoi biospheie
peituibations in the Sahaia, Amazon, anu Boieal iegions, each with
significant global ieach thiough teleconnections anu potential instability
uue to positive feeubacks.

Figure B-1. Potential tipping elements and tbeir approximate
geograpbic scope

186. Lenton et al. (2uu8).

SPECIAL TOPICS I 131
This topic has been iecognizeu as a wilu caiu foi climate iisk
management. The National Reseaich Council's (NRC) "Ameiica's Climate
Choices" stuuy founu that:
...iathei than smooth anu giauual climate shifts, theie is the potential
that the Eaith system coulu cioss tipping points oi thiesholus that
iesult in abiupt changes. Some of the gieatest iisks poseu by climate
change aie associateu with these abiupt changes anu othei climate
"suipiises" (unexpecteu changes oi impacts), yet the likelihoou of
such events is not well known. Noieovei, theie has been
compaiatively little ieseaich on the impacts that might be associateu
with "extieme" climate changefoi example, the impacts that coulu
be expecteu if global tempeiatuies iise by 1u F (6 C) oi moie ovei
the next centuiy.
187

The possibility foi a given paiametei to unueigo a tipping point event,
such that the climate system unueigoes a qualitative shift into a new
stability iegime, is illustiateu in Figuie B-2, wheie, as uesciibeu by Lenton
et al. the potential wells iepiesent stable attiactois, anu the ball, the state
of the system. 0nuei giauual anthiopogenic foicing (piogiessing fiom
uaik to light blue potential), the iight potential well becomes shallowei
anu finally vanishes (thiesholu), causing the ball to abiuptly ioll to the left.
The cuivatuie of the well is inveisely piopoitional to the system's
iesponse time to small peituibations.
188

The impact of such suuuen tiansitions is twofolu. 0ne, the shift coulu
place the climate system in a qualitatively uiffeient stability iegime. Foi
example, analysis of ice coie uata suggests such a tipping point event
about twelve thousanu yeais ago piecipitateu the iapiu enu of the
Youngei Biyas, an appioximately thiity-yeai tiansition peiiou of extieme
climate vaiiability, chaiacteiizeu by laige changes in tempeiatuie anu
piecipitation on timescales as shoit as thiee yeais.
189
Theie continues to
be uebate as to whethei the Youngei Biyas encouiageu oi impacteu the
auvent of agiicultuie. It is not cleai whethei mouein uepenuence on laige-
scale agiicultuie woulu be iesilient to the iapiu tiansients in tempeiatuie
anu piecipitation obseiveu uuiing the Youngei Biyas teimination event.

187. Ameiica's Climate Choices: AJvoncinq tbe Science of Climote Cbonqe (2u1u).
188. Lenton anu Schellnhubei (2uu7).
189. Alley et al., "Abiupt inciease in uieenlanu snow accumulation at the enu of the
Youngei Biyas event," Noture S62 (199S).

132 I APPENDIX B

Figure B-2. Concept view of a tipping point or tbresbold crossing
event leading to an abrupt cbange in climate state and future stability
The uuiation of such climate epochs also illustiates the seconu factoi
of ieveisibility. While the 1Suu-yeai uuiation of the Youngei Biyas might
not be iiieveisible in geologic teims, it woulu ceitainly be consiueieu
iiieveisible on societal timescales. With iegaius to iiieveisibility, the NRC
Americos Climote Cboices stuuy founu that "Theie is geneial scientific
consensus that the Aictic, which is systematically losing summei sea ice
thickness anu extent on an annual basis, is expecteu to become
peimanently ice-fiee uuiing summeis by the miuule of the 21st centuiy,
iegaiuless of how futuie emissions change. This change to an ice-fiee
summei Aictic is expecteu, in pait, because of the positive feeuback
between waiming anu sea ice melting."
190

Anothei founuational issue in assessing the iisk of climate tipping
point scenaiios is the long tail challenge. Figuie B-S illustiates the long tail
uistiibution of potential climate change outcomes, uiiven by the skeweu
uistiibution of piobabilities associateu with the combineu unceitainty in
futuie anthiopogenic gieenhouse gas emissions anu climate sensitivity to
that foicing.
191
The fact that the ieu cuive oveilays the tiauitional blue
cuive suggests the potential of unueiestimating the tiue likelihoou of
woist-case climate change scenaiios. This coulu leau to neglecting

19u. Ameiica's Climate Choices: AJvoncinq tbe Science of Climote Cbonqe (2u1u).
191. Nouifieu fiom Figuie 2.4 on p. SS of: Nick Nabey, }ay uulleuge, Beinaiu Finel, anu
Katheiine Silveithoine, "Begiees of Risk: Befining a Risk Nanagement Fiamewoik foi
Climate Secuiity," Febiuaiy 2u11.


obseivational uata collection anu moueling foi such conuitions as well as
evaluation of the iesponse options anu uevelopment of contingency plans.

Figure B-3. Tipping elements in tbe Eartb's climate system

FINDINC: Compaieu to moie giauual climate change scenaiios, the
potential foi tipping point events piesents auuitional neeus foi climate
obseivations (monitoiing foi eaily waining signs), mouels (non-lineai
piocesses), anu iisk assessment piocesses (managing longtail thieats).
These aie neeus that may not ieceive the piioiity they ueseive.
Ceoengineering
The full consequences of futuie climate change aie not yet fully
unueistoou. A pievailing view contenus that any mean suiface waiming
above about 2C fiom pie-inuustiial times will be uangeious, piouucing
seiious negative consequences foi humans anu natuial systems. Bowevei,
that numbei iepiesents only one slice thiough the iange of climate
sensitivities. The iesulting societal impacts aie also quite unceitain.
The safest anu most obvious methou of moueiating such climate change is
to take eaily anu effective mitigation action to ieuuce emissions of

134 I APPENDIX B

gieenhouse gases. Bowevei, global effoits to ieuuce these emissions have
not yet been successful, anu theie is no eviuence that the pioposeu
ieuuctions iequiieu to avoiu ieaching the potentially uangeious climate
change will be achieveu in the neai oi meuium teim futuie.
Auuitionally, a seiious thieat multipliei foi climate change impacts is
the peisistence of C02 anu othei long-liveu gieenhouse gases in the
atmospheie, many of which uecay moie slowly than long-liveu iauioactive
isotopes of fission piouucts fiom nucleai powei plants (Figuie B-4). The
atmospheiic uecay times in the figuie aie baseuon a simple exponential
uecay mouel foi Cesium-1S7 anu use the Bein Caibon mouel foi C02
uecay. Both stait with a unit impulse (noimalizeu to 1.u) at time zeio
followeu by uecay pei those mouels foi 1,uuu yeais. This iiieveisibility
piesents the thieat that climate changes, much laigei than cuiiently
pieuicteu, coulu peisist foi many centuiies (Figuie B-S).
uiven oui inability to ieach agieements to ieuuce emissions to
mitigate climate change, anu given the long-teim consequences of auuing
gieenhouse gases into the atmospheie touay, a numbei of climate
inteivention concepts have been pioposeu. These concepts, iefeiieu to as
geoengineeiing, can be uiviueu into two bioau classes: 1) Solai Rauiation
Nanagement techniques that seek to inciease the amount of the solai
iauiation ieflecteu back into space thus incieasing the Eaith's albeuo by a
small peicentage to offset the effects of incieaseu gieenhouse gases; anu,
2) Caibon uioxiue iemoval techniques which aim to iemove C02 fiom the
atmospheie. (Figuies B-4 anu B-S)
192

192. Susan Solomon, uian-Kaspei Plattnei, Reto Knutti, anu Pieiie Fiieulingstein,
Physical Sciences: "Enviionmental Sciences: Iiieveisible climate change uue to caibon
uioxiue emissions," ProceeJinqs of tbe Notionol AcoJemy of Sciences 1u6, no. 6 (2uu9):
17u4-17u9. Publisheu aheau of piint }anuaiy 28, 2uu9.


Figure B-4. Atmospberic decay times {CU2 versus Cesium-137]

Figure B-5. CU2 lifetime in tbe atmospbere
While such schemes have been uiscusseu in scientific liteiatuie foi
uecaues, iecent stuuies have focuseu consiueiable seiious attention
towaius assessing the potential iewaius anu iisks, incluuing scientific,
technical, goveinance, anu sociopolitical issues. This incluues the Royal
Society's 6eoenqineerinq tbe Climote iepoit
193
anu the NRC's AJvoncinq tbe
Science of Climote Cbonqe iepoit.
194
In 2u1u, the 0S uoveinment
Accountability 0ffice conuucteu a stuuy in iesponse to a iequest fiom

19S. 6eoenqineerinq tbe climote: science, qovernonce onJ uncertointy (Royal Society, 2uu9).
194. Ameiica's Climate Choices: AJvoncinq tbe Science of Climote Cbonqe (2u1u).

136 I APPENDIX B

Congiess to assess the state of seiious scientific ieseaich in the 0niteu
States, "Climate Change: A Cooiuinateu Stiategy Coulu Focus Feueial
ueoengineeiing Reseaich anu Infoim uoveinance Effoits."
195

The geneial conclusion of these iepoits is that while most of the
pioposeu geoengineeiing options aie consiueieu technically impiactical
oi cost-piohibitive, some, such as stiatospheiic aeiosol injection anu
bounuaiy-layei maiine clouu-seeuing, aie potentially feasible. These
iepoits also concluue that the potential foi unintenueu consequences foi
all geoengineeiing options has not yet ieceiveu significant stuuy. These
iepoits finu that a significant ieseaich piogiam woulu be a necessaiy
piecuisoi to any sub-scale fielu expeiiments oi full-scale ueployment of
geoengineeiing. Foi example, the uoveinment Accountability 0ffice
"iecommenus that within the Executive 0ffice of the Piesiuent, the
appiopiiate entities, such as the 0ffice of Science anu Technology Policy,
establish a cleai stiategy foi geoengineeiing ieseaich in the context of
the feueial iesponse to climate change to ensuie a cooiuinateu
feueial appioach."
196
To uate theie is no such ieseaich piogiam in the
0niteu States uespite ielateu woik in conventional caibon captuie anu
sequestiation by the Bepaitment of Eneigy.
Theie is a significant potential foi unilateial geoengineeiing activity,
both sub-scale expeiiments anu full-scale ueployment. Foi example, foi
seveial yeais China has uemonstiateu a piopensity to attempt mouifying
weathei in Beijing anu othei aieas. uiven the global scale teleconnections
in the climate system, attempts to mouify climate on iegional scales has
the potential foi significant anu unpieuictable consequences in othei paits
of the woilu. Bence, effoits by one nation-state to impiove theii local
conuitions coulu negatively impact a neighboiing oi iemote nation-state.

19S. uoveinment Accountability 0ffice, Climote Cbonqe: A CoorJinoteJ Stroteqy CoulJ
Iocus IeJerol 6eoenqineerinq Reseorcb onJ lnform 6overnonce Ffforts, uA0-1u-9uS
(Septembei 2u1u).
196. uoveinment Accountability 0ffice (2u1u).


Figure B-. Carbon dioxide removal geoengineering concepts
Solai Rauiation Nanagement geoengineeiing concepts inuicate that
coipoiations aie alieauy engaging in geoengineeiing ieseaich, in some
cases leauing to conflict. This thieat is compounueu given that the
technology necessaiy to implement some of the geoengineeiing options
coulu be tiivial compaieu to ueveloping nucleai weapons (Figuie B-6).
ueoengineeiing nonpiolifeiation may become a ieal thieat ovei the coming
uecaues. This iisk suggests a potential neeu foi a 0S ieseaich activity
focuseu on impioving piocess unueistanuing in aieas that otheiwise might
not ieceive piioiitization unuei geneial climate change science, foi example,
stiatospheiic sulphui cycle anu impacts of continuous stiatospheiic aeiosol
injection on the ozone layei. It coulu also uiive the neeu foi sustaineu
monitoiing systems to uetect eviuence of unilateial geoengineeiing activity

138 I APPENDIX B

with piecisions anu spatio-tempoial iesolution beyonu that iequiieu foi
tiauitional climate science (Figuie B-7).

Figure B-7. Solar radiation management geoengineering concepts

TERMS OF REFERENCE I 139
Terms of Reference

140 I TERMS OF REFERENCE
ACQUISITION.
TECHNOLOGY
AND LOGISTICS
THE UNDER SEC REI ARY OF DEFENSE
WASHINGTON, DC 20301-3010
JUN 2 8 2010
MEMORANDUM FOR CHAIRMAN, DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD
SUBJECT: Terms of Reference-- Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and
Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security
Changes in the weather and the resulting physical environment that impacts the
human condition create potentially profound effects on populations in parts of the world
and present new challenges to global security and stability. Changing weather patterns
can shift historical areas of flooding, drought, temperature and wind patterns which can
impact agricultural output, change disease vectors, and alter geographical features, to
name but a few of the effects. These changes will not occur overnight but they have
important long-term implications for national security in that they can bring new or
increased competition for resources (e.g., food, water, fuel, transportation paths, etc.),
create potential for large population displacement and mass migrations, and possibly
substantial increased population in previously barren areas that benefit positively from
cl imate change. Fai lure to anticipate and mitigate these changes increases the threat of
more failed states with all the instabilities and potential for conflict inherent in such
failures. Of particular near-term concern is the African continent, where two-thirds of the
states are identified internationally as fragile.
There is information available in U.S. government agencies, international
organizations, and non-governmental organizations on some of these changes and their
impact. However, there is no comprehensive set of data describing the extent of the
changes, the trends, and realistic projections. There is no policy in the Department of
Defense (DoD), no information sharing environment, no accepted set of analysis tools,
nor an overall mitigation strategy pertaining to the implications to instability and human
security caused by climate change. In addition. the roles DoD may be asked to play, and
should play, in helping African militaries develop capabilities and capacities to address
these issues or to mitigate the consequences of climate change as it regards their national
security need to be outlined and understood.
The Defense Science Board is therefore directed to create a task force with the
following purposes:
Bring together the information and views from multiple government and other
organizations to provide a comprehensive picture of the current situation. known
unknowns and emerging trends.
Review and understand potential consequences of current change in the physical
environment. idcnti fy potential analytical tools, and project example consequences
of major trend lines on African national and international security.
Make recommendations on the role that DoD should play in dealing with other
agencies in the U.S. Government (USG) to mitigate potential consequences of
em ironmental change in areas important to U.S. national security.
Recommend steps to engage other government agencies in de\ eloping a shared
understanding or the consequences of climate change for US national security. and
determine where DoD may be best suited to address the relevant effects caused by
changing weather patterns and physical environments.
Recommend an overall structure and DoD process to populate a government-wide
database to capture effects on USG programs to aid decision making to mitigate
the effects on U.S. national and African partner securit).
As the Under Secretary of Defense (Acquisition. Technology. and Logistics). I
will co-sponsor the study with the Commander. United States Africa Command
(AFRJCOM). General Larry D. Welch. USAF (Ret), and Dr. William Howard will serve
as the Task Force Co-Chairmen. Mr. Mike Owens, AFRICOM. will serve as the
t.xeeutive Secretary and Major Michael Warner. USAF. will serve as the DSB
Representative.
lt is not anticipated that this Task Force \viii need to go into an) .. particular
matters .. within the meaning of Section 208 of Title 18. United States Code: nor\\ ill it
cause any member to be placed in the position of acting as procurement official.
Ashton B. Carter
2

TASK FORCE MEMBERSHIP I 143

Task Force Membersbip
Cbairs
NAME AFFILIATION
Dr. William Howard
Private Consultant
Gen Larry Welch, US Air Force (Retired) Institute for Defense Analyses
Task Force Members
Dr. Ted Gold Private Consultant
Dr. Sherri Goodman CNA
GEN Paul Kern, USA (Retired) AM General
Dr. Christine Youngblut Institute for Defense Analyses
Executive Secretary
Mr. Mike Owens US Africa Command
DSB Representatives
Mr. Brian Hughes OUSD(AT&L)
Maj Michael Warner OUSD(AT&L)
Covernment Advisors
Dr. Kent Butts US Army War College
Mr. Riley Duren J et Propulsion Laboratory
Dr. Diane Evans J et Propulsion Laboratory
CAPT Tim Gallaudet US Navy Task Force on Climate Change
Mr. David Goldwyn State Department
Mr. Larry Kobayashi Central Intelligence Agency
Mr. Leslie Poe Central Intelligence Agency
Mr. R.C. Porter Defense Intelligence Agency
LtCol Paul Schimpf, USMC OUSD(P)
Ms. Courtney St. J ohn US Navy Task Force on Climate Change

144 I TASK FORCE MEMBERSHIP

Staff
Ms. Becky Bortnick Afergan Strategic Analysis, Inc.
Ms. Kelly Frere Strategic Analysis, Inc.
Ms. Teresa Kidwell Strategic Analysis, Inc.
Mr. Ted Stump Strategic Analysis, Inc.

PRESENTATIONS TO THE TASK FORCE I 145

Presentations to tbe Task Force

NAME TOPIC
)une 14, 2010
MG Richard Sherlock
US Africa Command, Director, Strategy, Plans, and
Programs
Strategic Environment and Implications of Climate
Change
CDR Esther McClure
OUSD(P)
Climate Change and the Quadrennial Defense
Review
Dr. Ashley Moran
Strauss Center, University of Texas, Austin
DOD's (Minerva) Climate Change and African
Political Stability Project
CAPT Timothy Gallaudet
Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy
Navy's Climate Change Task Force
Dr. Sherri Goodman, Dr. Ralph Espach and
Mr. Peter MacKenzie
CNA
Regional Climate Security (China and Columbia)
Mr. Larry Kobayashi
Central Intelligence Agency
Climate Change Center and Related Intel
Community/Science Programs
Dr. Christine Youngblut
Institute for Defense Analyses
Sudan Case Study
)une 15, 2010
Dr. Kent Butts
National Security Issues, Branch Center for
Strategic Leadership, US Army War College

Climate Change Impacts on State Stability,
Implications for Combatant Commands and
Multiagency Operations
)uly 15, 2010
Mr. Mike Casciaro
US Africa Command Deputy Operations and
Logistics Directorate (J 4), Deputy Plans and Policy
Directorate (J 5)
Mission, Organization, and Programs Overview

Dr. J erome Delli Priscoli
USACE
Water Security, Global Water Issues, and Climate
Change
Dr. Susan Clark-Sestak
Opportunities for Military Engagement on
Environmental Issues
Dr. Robert R. Sands
Expeditionary Skills Training
Air Force Culture and Language Center
Air University
Climate Change, Human Security and Transfrontier
Conservation Areas: Lessons from the Field

146 I PRESENTATIONS TO THE TASK FORCE

NAME TOPIC
Mr. Riley Duren
Chief Systems Engineer
Earth Science & Technology Directorate
J et Propulsion Laboratory
Global climate information systems:
capabilities, gaps, and opportunities
August 18, 2010
Mr. Artur Kolodziejski
USAFRICOM
Environmental Security Program
AFRICOM Environmental Security Program
Mr. Richard Cicone
Mr. Thomas Parris
Water, Climate, and National Security
Ambassador Reno Harnish
Director, Center for Environment and National
Security
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
University of California at San Diego
Center for Environment and National Security
Mr. Elmer Roman
Oversight Executive for Building Partnerships
OUSD (AT&L)/DDR&E/Rapid Fielding Directorate
Complex Systems/J oint Capabilities Technology
Demonstrations
Partnering Earth Observations for People Living
Environmentally (PEOPLE) J CTD (Interagency
group including NASA)
Presentation and Discussion
August 19, 2010
Dr. Holmes Hummel
Department of Energy
Report on Clean Energy Ministerial
November 8, 2010
Mr. J eff Heath
Naval Facilities Engineering Command
Naval Facilities Engineering Command Capabilities
Dr. David Dean
Office of the Under Secretary for Science,
Energy and Measurement, Reporting, and Verifying
for Possible Climate Treaties
Dr. Anthony Okon Nyong
African Development Bank
The Politics of Climate Change and Implications for
Africas Security
FY11 Defense Environmental International
Cooperation Program (DEIC)

PRESENTATIONS TO THE TASK FORCE I 147

November 9, 2010
Dr. Sam Baldwin
Energy and Climate Challenges: The Efficiency and
Renewable Energy Opportunity
Col Shannon Beebe
US Army
Why Climate Change Will NEVER Matter to US
National Security
Ms. Cynthia Brady
Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation,
USAID
Climate Change and Conflict: USAID's Perspective
December 17, 2010
Dr. Kathleen D. White
Global and Climate Change Institute for Water
Resources
US Army Corps of Engineers
Climate Change and US National Security: Issues
and Opportunities in Africa
Dr. J onathan Pershing
Deputy Special Envoy for Climate Change
US Department of State
Outcome of Cancun Climate Negotiations
Maj Mary Zajac
National Guard Bureau J 532, International Affairs
National Guard and Environment Security
Mr. J ames Turner
Office of International Affairs and Senior Advisor to
the NOAA Administrator
NOAA's Work to Meet Climate Challenges
Dr. Chester Koblinsky
NOAA Climate Program Office
NOAA Climate Service Transition
The NOAA Climate Program
Mr. Tim Lattimer
Central America & the Caribbean
US Department of State
Climate Change and Security in Central America
and the Caribbean: Views from the Field
FY11 Defense Environmental International
Cooperation Program
)anuary 13, 2011
Colonel Noberto Cintron
US Southern Command
US Southern Command Perspective
Mr. Rod Snider
American Red Cross
American Red Cross and Climate Change
MG Bob Barnes
Nature Conservancy
The Nature Conservancy and Climate Change
May 1, 2011
Dr. Kenneth Verosub University of California-Davis

148 I PRESENTATIONS TO THE TASK FORCE

GLOSSARY I 149

AFRICOM United States Africa Command
AOR area of responsibility
AR4 4th Assessment Report (of the IPCC)
C carbon
C Celcius
C4MIP Coupled Carbon-Climate Cycle Model Intercomparison Project
CCAPS Climate Change and African Political Stability (program at Strauss Center funded
by DOD's Minerva Initiative)
CEOS Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
CH4 methane
CIA Central Intelligence Agency
Cm centimeter
CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
CMIP5 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
CO2 carbon dioxide
COE Center of Excellence for Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance (at
US Pacific Command)
CORDEX Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment
DEIC DOD Environmental International Cooperation Program
DESDynI Deformation, Ecosystem Structure and Dynamics of Ice
DOD Department of Defense
DOS Department of State
DSB Defense Science Board
ECMWF European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ECV Essential Climate Variables
EIW Environmental Indications and Warnings
ENSEMBLES A common ensemble climate forecast system used to construct integrated
scenarios of future climate change, including both non-intervention and stabilization
scenarios
ENSO El Nio Southern Oscillation
FEWS NET Famine Early Warning System Network

150 I GLOSSARY

FI fossil intensive
FO follow-on
GCM Global Climate Models
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GEMS Global Environment Monitoring System
GPCP Global Precipitation Climatology Project
GRACE Gravity Recovery and Climate Change Experiment
Gt gigation
H2O water vapor
ICESat-2 Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (This is the second-generation of the
orbiting laser altimeter ICESat scheduled for launch in early 2016.)
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
J ASON-1 Oceanography mission to monitor global ocean circulation, study the ties between
the oceans and atmosphere, improve global climate forecasts and predictions, and
monitor events such as El Nio conditions and ocean eddies
Km kilometer
N2O nitrous oxide
NARCCAP North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NGO nongovernmental organization
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NRC National Research Council
NWP Numerical Weather Prediction
O3 ozone
OI optimum interpolation
OSD Office of the Secretary of Defense
OUSD(AT&L) Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics
OUSD(P) Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy

GLOSSARY I 151

PRUDENCE Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate
Change Risks and Effects
RANET Radio and Internet for the communication of hydro-meteorological information for
rural development
RCM Regional Climate Models
SMAP Soil Moisture Active Passive
SOUTHCOM United States Southern Command
SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
SSM/I special sensor microwave/imager
SST sea surface temperature
SWOT Surface Water and Ocean Topography
TOPEX TOPEX/Poseidon satellite
TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission
UNEP United Nations Environmental Program
USACE US Army Corps of Engineers
USAID United States Agency for International Development
USGCRP United States Global Change Research Program
USGEO US Group on Earth Observations
USGS US Geological Survey
WMO World Meteorological Organization

Trends and Implications of Climate Change For National and International Security

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Trends and Implications of Climate Change For National and International Security

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Report of the

Defense Science Board

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